Mini 749 - Antarctic Mafia [Game Over]

[Netlava]

Saying, "I am a penguin" sounds cooler than "I am an Adelie penguin." That's why I left out the Adelie.

Somewhere far along this road he lost his soul - to a woman so heartless.

Not Voting - 1 (Jazzmyn, Netlava, Light-kun, JereIC, tubby216, HowardRoark, DraketheFake)


7 alive, 4 to lynch

-Mod

(Vote Count accurate as of Post 807)

[Netlava]

And how would I know that there's more than one species of penguin in the game? I wouldn't.

[DraketheFake]

You would if you'd paid attention when I claimed yesterday.

Not paying attention: my anti-drug.

[Netlava]

I saw your claim. That doesn't mean I can accept it for sure without knowing your alignment.

[JereIC]

Has anyone noticed that LK STILL has not addressed the killer whale theory? It was mentioned like 1000x times already.

DtF and I explicitly asked him not to until we've had the claims, so he's off the hook for now.

You have to explain your opinions now, so please explain why you don't think tubby is scum.

While we're at it, explain why you think tubby is scum.

I'm not sure if he's scum. But, he might be, and I want to know why LK didn't include him on his suspect list.

I saw your claim. That doesn't mean I can accept it for sure without knowing your alignment.

First off, just because you don't accept his claim doesn't mean you don't have to distinguish your claim from his. How does that even make sense?

Secondly, you said in post 768 that you think DtF is pro-town. If you're not sure of his claim, why don't you lean towards him being scum?

[HowardRoark]

JereIC

D1

31: Fishythefish (1)
DraketheFake and freekp vote Debonair Danny DiPietro
205: Debonair Danny DiPietro (3) Fishythefish (1)
Fishythefish unvotes Debonair Danny DiPietro; DraketheFake unvotes Debonair Danny DiPietro
304: unvote Debonair Danny DiPietro (1)
329: freeko (7)

HAMMER

D2

378: Light-kun (3)
Light-kun claims, Fishythefish unvotes him
394: unvote Light-kun (1)
557: Light-kun (2)
559: unvote Light-kun (1)
634: Fishythefish (4)

JereIC plays a little bit during the RVS.

Drake, I agree with your read on ZEEnon, but I'm not sure why you find DDD scummy when Nuwen is using basically the same arguments. Could you point out what exactly made DDD's post scummy and Nuwen's posts not? Is the fact that he's jumping votes while Nuwen is just backing up her original vote with a serious argument?

Why is the answer given when the question is asked?

He reappears at post 151 to cast some suspicion

DDD’s explanation of his vote for ZEEnon feels like he’s hedging his bets. In some places he calls ZEE crazy suspicious, but in other posts he undercuts his own argument by saying ZEE’s play is usually a town-tell (speaking of which, is there such a thing as town-tells?). He’s also built an argument about why lynching ZEE could be good even if he is a townie, which I feel is anticipating ZEE turning town. Also, posts 125 and 133, where he asks people to chime in on Freeko’s post, feel like he’s trying to start a bandwagon without being the first vote on it.

Post 205 he makes his case and votes Debonair Danny DiPietro. The response points out a flaw in the case and JereIC responds

Sorry about that, I got the posts confused. When I've got more time I'll respond to your other points.

The discussion with the accused continues and

I'm going to review freeko's posts, but you, HowardRoark, and Fishythedelishy have made some good points about him.

Setting up to slide onto the wagon? Buddying? A quick note?

Freeko, your posts have lost all touch with reality, and I'm leaning towards voting you now. DDD has responded very coolly and rationally under pressure, and while it may be an act, it looks a lot better in comparison to you totally freaking the hell out crazy-style for no apparent reason.

Preparing to change wagons.

He and HowardRoark begin a discussion on a misunderstanding. Post 300, JereIC asks how this situation makes him scummy.

Not sure how I feel about freeko. On the one hand, I think he's more likely to be anti-social than anti-town, and I think he's a convenient target. On the other hand, Nuwen is right, his arguments are terrible and somewhat scummy, and I think he's the scummiest player in the game at the moment. If he can't post a rational self-defense soon I'll probably vote him.

More slowly moving to the freeko wagon. freeko fails at self voting. We get that wonderful "claim" and JereIC hammers.

JereIC begins D2 by asking HowardRoark about the misunderstanding making him scummy.

With one vote on Light-kun, he drops the argument and throws some suspicion on Light-kun in post 358.

Post 363 he points out the diferrences in the night's kill descriptions.

He makes his case and vote against Light-kun in 378 and unvotes after the Vig claim.

JereIC goes on V/LA and returns with

I want to take a second pass at the last two-three pages before posting on them and making overall conclusions, but here's some posts I took interest in. This review focuses on DtF and Fishy, but I have some notes on other players that I need to develop before posting.

and proposes his "killing us all (DtF, Fishy, and me) and letting mod sort it out" plan.

Netlava makes a case against him and he responds in 494. Netlava counters and he responds in post 535.

I think Fishy is becoming more scummy by default. He hasn't said anything to hang himself, but his defense hasn't been good, and he had done a poor job explaining why he changed his mind from being against ordering your kills to being for it. I want to see how he responds to Nuwen's post that I pointed out before deciding whether or not to vote for him. On a related note, I think DtF is acting oddly. Sometimes he's saying that the three of us are townies caught up in a flawed voting pattern analysis, other times he seems to be building cases against me and Fishy.

More playing the uncertainty game.

Post 550 is a discussion about Light-kun being a Vig vs SK. Also asking HowardRoark about another misunderstanding.

Post 557, he dislikes Light-kun's species claim and throws a vote at him again. He unvotes in post 559 when Fishythefish explains the reasoning for asking for a species claim.

He returns to HowardRoark to ask for reasoning in also asking for the species claim.

JereIC has further discussions with Fishythefish (concerning post 541) and Netlava (more on the case against him) in post 573.

There is more with Netlava, comments on Light-kun's species claim, and

So, here's why I find Fishy (and, to an extent, DoctheFake) scummy. Their rationale for pushing LK to claim is that they thought he'd screw up, and then they could push for his lynch. That's preposterous. LK's lie was clumsy, but no one could have reasonably anticipated a massive disconnect between the flavor and his actual claim. Therefore, their post hoc justification strikes me as opportunistic, especially since they've both backed down when other people started criticizing it. In particular, Fishy's claim that he unvoted LK because LK promised not to kill tonight doesn't make sense. You think the guy's lying about his species in a scummy way, but he's telling the truth about what he's going to do tonight?

I intend to hammer, and I'd like a claim from Fishy.

I think DtF is telling the truth about his species. However, he could be mafia, and his backstory is that he's trying to push the little Adelie penguins out.

This is based on the species inconsistancy brought about by the Krill. He then moves on to further his case against Fishythefish and throw in his vote.

I think LK is pro-town, and is clumsily trying a lie that he thinks will expose scum. I think it's worked to an extent.

Hindsight: Who? How?

I'm pretty sure DtF is scum. His doc claim doesn't make a lot sense if he's scum, but it makes way less sense if he's actually the doc or a townie. {snip} HR is my third guess, mostly because he seems to support your arguments a lot, and how quickly he backed down from his abortive case against me earlier. Net strikes me as pro-town: his case against me and for you may be weak, but I think he honestly believes it.

There is some more interaction with Fishythefish and Drakethefake based on this.

Post 738 is a restatement of reasons for voting Fishythefish. A few posts to determine Looker's motivation for voting Fishythefish and a bit with DraketheFake. End D2.

[Netlava]

First off, just because you don't accept his claim doesn't mean you don't have to distinguish your claim from his. How does that even make sense?

I'm not sure what you mean here.

Secondly, you said in post 768 that you think DtF is pro-town. If you're not sure of his claim, why don't you lean towards him being scum?

> I saw your claim. That doesn't mean I can accept it

for sure

without knowing your alignment.

Key word.

[Light-kun]

Did you pick who goes next Net? *waits*

[JereIC]

Did you pick who goes next Net? *waits*

He did it in 795. It was the sentence after he claimed. How did you miss that?

[tubby216]

oh i guess its on me huh

i am an Adelie penguin

i pick howard next

[HowardRoark]

So, we have . . .

Light-kun: Killer Whale
DraketheFake: Emperor Penguin
Jazzmyn: Adelie Penguin
Netlava: Adelie Penguin
tubby216: Adelie Penguin
HowardRoark: Adelie Penguin
JereIC: _______ (fill in the blank)

V/LA 22-29 MAY 2009

I'm traveling across the country for my brother's wedding. Access will be limited, but I shouldn't be totally gone.

_______________
Let's go Pens!

[JereIC]

Adelie Penguin. I guess we don't have to worry about a second round of actual role claims....

[DraketheFake]

Hm. With no other power roles, Doc/Commuter/Vig is far more believable than Doc/Commuter/SK, and that plus the no-kill last night further commends the idea that L-k is, in fact, town-aligned.

Right now I'm leaning Jazzmyn or Netlava, with tubby lagging not far behind and JereIC sort of a distant third tier. I'm not putting as much faith in the Netlava "slip" as I seemed to at first, but his play yesterday leaves something to be desired and the players he replaced were pretty awful. I'll put some actual effort into parsing out who I think should go later.

Light-kun, are you in fact a killer whale?

[HowardRoark]

@ALL: If you were to vote now, who would it be and why?

My choice is Netlava. ZEEnon's play left a lot to be desired. Netlava's D2 vote against JereIC had a weak case behind it. She rode that vote all day. JereIC was in no danger of being lynched. There has been no apparent scum hunting. Also, I just can't get past the fact that he still believes that Light-kun is SK seeing as how there wasn't a second kill last night.

Has anyone noticed that LK STILL has not addressed the killer whale theory? It was mentioned like 1000x times already.

Apparently you didn't notice that he was asked to wait until all species claims were complete. Since that is complete . . .

@Light-kun: Care to truly role claim and explain the false claim? Thanx!

V/LA 22-29 MAY 2009

_______________
Let's go Pens!

[Light-kun]

Problem: Given the remaining character claims, vote counts, and play summary; Find scum.

Light-kun: Killer Whale
DraketheFake: Emperor Penguin
Jazzmyn: Adelie Penguin
Netlava: Adelie Penguin
tubby216: Adelie Penguin
HowardRoark: Adelie Penguin
JereIC: Adelie Penguin

Reduction:
-L-K: Self can clear self. (0%)
-DtF: Power balance=Cleared? (7%)

Remaining:
Jazzmyn
Netlava
Tubby216
Howard
Jere

Searching connection network based on votes:


Newlava - 4 (tubby(Nuwen), Howard(mizz.mafia))
Nuwen - 3 ( Netlava)
Fishythefish - 2 (JereIC, Jazzmyn(pac))

12 alive, 7 to lynch.
------------------------
Connections:
Tubby-Howard
Netlava-----X
JereIC-Jazzmyn
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Fishythefish - 1 (Jazzmyn(pacman))
Debonair Danny DiPietro - 3 (DraketheFake, freeko, JereIC)
Light-kun - 1 (na85)
freeko - 4 ( HowardRoark, )
pacman281292 - 2 (Netlava,)

Not Voting - 1 (Nuwen)

12 alive, 7 to lynch.
---------------------------------------------------------
Connections:
dtf-JereIC
jazzmyn-X
Netlava-X
----------------------------------------------------------
Fishythefish - 1 (jazzmyn)
Debonair Danny DiPietro - 1 (freeko)
Light-kun - 1 (na85)
freeko - 6 (HowardRoark, tubby(Nuwen), DraketheFake)
pacman281292 - 2 (Netlava)

Not Voting - 1 (JereIC)

12 alive, 7 to lynch. freeko is at L-1.
-------------------------------------------------------------
Howard-Tubby
Netlava-X
Jazzmyn-X
--------------------------------------------------------------

Fishythefish - 1 (Jazzmyn)
freeko - 7 ( HowardRoark, tubby216(Nuwen)*, DraketheFake, JereIC*)
Jazzmyn - 2 (Netlava, Amished)
-------------------------------
tubby-JereIC
Netlava-X
------------------------------

DraketheFake - 1 (FishytheFish)
JereIC - 1 (Netlava)
FishytheFish - 4 (Light-kun, tubby216*, Jazzmyn*, Looker)
Light-kun - 1 (DraketheFake)

Not Voting - 2 (JereIC, HowardRoark)

9 alive, 5 to lynch

FishytheFish is L-1.
-------------------------------------------------------------
tubby-Jazzmyn
--------------------------------------------------------------
JereIC - 1 (Netlava)
FishytheFish - 5 (JereIC, tubby216, Jazzmyn)
Looker - 3 (HowardRoark, DraketheFake)
--------------------------------------
Jereic-tubby-jazzmyn
---------------------------------------

From this, I eliminate HowardRoark as a suspect. First: Mizzmafia WAS NOT mafia. I just can't see it.

Second: He's been too helpful today.

Third: He doesn't seem connected to me, but I could be wrong.

I do, however, see a lot of Jere-Tubby-Jazzmyn

I also find that Netlava has only really voted jazzmyn and Jereic, which makes he a potential accomplice.

Reduction:
-HR (21%)

Remainder:
JereIC
Jazzmyn
Tubby
Netlava

Analyzing:
JereIC<---really scummy in some of Howard's analysis, but several of jere's post seem to root themselves in a town player. I'm not sure on him, but connection indicates potential scum....

Jazzmyn <---See Howard's analysis. If you have a problem with it, object now cause you are about 73% scum. (0%=confirmed town)

Tubby<---Nuwen's play seems off somehow. Looking at some meta, her play seemed superior there and secondary. Could be due to being mafia OR being too busy to commit. Null? Tubby has seemed scummy, but a potential team of Jere+Tubby+Jazz seems likely. However, I won't be supporting a Tubby lynch due to lack of evidence.

Netlava<----Hm...seems scummy just from the passiveness of her play. The analysis (Howard) also doesn't flatter Net much either... I'm voting scum on this one.

[Netlava]

I actually think LK might be vig looking at the role-claims.

[Netlava]

Also, I just can't get past the fact that he still believes that Light-kun is SK seeing as how there wasn't a second kill last night.

SKs are not always required to kill. Most of the time, they're free to choose, especially in mini normals.

[Netlava]

In defense of Zeenon, when I replaced in, I originally thought he might have faked his outburst. But then I checked who I replaced, and it turns out he's not scum. I suppose it's more likely to be genuinely angry than to be angry, since there's no point in faking it.

As for my "passivity," I point out that no one except for fishy was in danger of being lynched yesterday.

Lastly, it's interesting to note that my suspects are the last to point out who they find scummy today.

[JereIC]

If I had to vote now, it'd be Tubby. In retrospect, his focus on Fishy day 2 looks scummier - and there's not much else from from Tubby himself. However, Nuwen also looks scummy now. Since DtF's doc claim has gone unchallenged, and I'm not about to claim scum, it appears her Fishy-DtF-me analysis was wrong. I could chalk that up to human error, but so few suspects left it seems more likely she was trying to divert our attention (and was doing it pretty well, actually).

[Light-kun]

If I had to vote now, it'd be Tubby. In retrospect, his focus on Fishy day 2 looks scummier - and there's not much else from from Tubby himself. However, Nuwen also looks scummy now. Since DtF's doc claim has gone unchallenged, and I'm not about to claim scum, it appears her Fishy-DtF-me analysis was wrong. I could chalk that up to human error, but so few suspects left it seems more likely she was trying to divert our attention (and was doing it pretty well, actually).

Of my remaining likely mafia:
Jere
Jazz
Tubby
Netlava

Jere and Tubby are definitely opposites. Unfortunately, we can't confirm this other than based on the above post. As a result, Netlava and Jazz are 90% mafia. Howard is 21%. Jere and Tubby are = and codependent.

So, who do we lynch? I'm voting Netlava after her last spastic incident.

[HowardRoark]

I actually think LK might be vig looking at the role-claims.

SKs are not always required to kill. Most of the time, they're free to choose, especially in mini normals.

Is this based on DraketheFake's statement in 812? Being new to this site, I will not just accept your

mini normal SK no kill

statement as truth. Are you switching back to Light-kun SK? If not, why bother mentioning it?

As for my "passivity," I point out that no one except for fishy was in danger of being lynched yesterday.

How does that excuse you?

Lastly, it's interesting to note that my suspects are the last to point out who they find scummy today.

It is interesting. Even more interesting is the fact that you neither mention apparently dropping JereIC as a suspect nor why Jazzmyn and tubby216 have become your suspects.

@Light-kun: Why are you ignoring the requests to confirm your "Kiler Whale" claim or to honestly claim?

mod: prod tubby216 and Jazzmyn

V/LA 22-29 MAY 2009

_______________
Let's go Pens!

[Netlava]

Are you switching back to Light-kun SK? If not, why bother mentioning it?

My post was in response to this:

> Also, I just can't get past the fact that he still believes that Light-kun is SK seeing as how there wasn't a second kill last night.

Basically, I was saying that it is not scummy to think LK is an SK. (Why would it be?) SKs usually do not have to kill every night - check other games if you want.

It is interesting. Even more interesting is the fact that you neither mention apparently dropping JereIC as a suspect nor why Jazzmyn and tubby216 have become your suspects.

Where did you get the idea that I've dropped JereIC as a suspect? And I'm planning to make a post (if needed that is) on who my other suspects are.

[Light-kun]

I actually think LK might be vig looking at the role-claims.

SKs are not always required to kill. Most of the time, they're free to choose, especially in mini normals.

Is this based on DraketheFake's statement in 812? Being new to this site, I will not just accept your

mini normal SK no kill

statement as truth. Are you switching back to Light-kun SK? If not, why bother mentioning it?

As for my "passivity," I point out that no one except for fishy was in danger of being lynched yesterday.

How does that excuse you?

Lastly, it's interesting to note that my suspects are the last to point out who they find scummy today.

It is interesting. Even more interesting is the fact that you neither mention apparently dropping JereIC as a suspect nor why Jazzmyn and tubby216 have become your suspects.

@Light-kun: Why are you ignoring the requests to confirm your "Kiler Whale" claim or to honestly claim?

mod: prod tubby216 and Jazzmyn

V/LA 22-29 MAY 2009

_______________
Let's go Pens!

Earlier when I said "Light-Kun=Killer Whale," I had no reason to lie. There is no humans here, as far as I know. (Unless they're the mafia, but whatever.

[Light-kun]

There are no humans as far as I know. (EBWOP BUMP!)

[HowardRoark]

Where did you get the idea that I've dropped JereIC as a suspect?

Based on the fact that you said "Lastly, it's interesting to note that my suspects are the last to point out who they find scummy today." (which I quoted). Since JereIC had already named his vote preference, that statement seems to exclude him from your suspects.

Also . . .

I'm planning to make a post (if needed that is) on who my other suspects are.

So you have JereIC, tubby216, and Jazzmyn . . . how many other suspects do you have? And, yes . . . I believe that it is necessary to provide some details on who you suspect and why.

V/LA 22-29 MAY 2009

_______________
Let's go Pens!