Large Normal 228: Bananas - Game Over

[Almost50]

Hello all

This is my catchup *done during the night*
It will be posted in a series of posts (would be damn too long to do it all in one post)

[Almost50]

Hello again to the people I know, and nice to meet you to those I don't

Now to those I don't know: I am a very transparent player. Like the most transparent player on the whole site, if I may so myself. Now as different people may have various translations of the term, it may take you some vivid training to get the virtual type of transparency I'm referring to.

To those who already know me... let's talk about the weather. Like, how's it going in Vermont?

Introductions aside; Titus being Town solves like 30% of my problems already, and you guys having lynched scum on D1 should take care of another 20% or so.

hot take the scum are the users who have numbers in their name

VOTE: Wake88

You hould've thought before you spoke, bro.

help its been six hours and im still trapped in a cage full of sharks

Do they have fricking laser beams attached to their heads?



And by the end of page 1 I've decided -after careful consideration and lengthy debates with my beloved friends JJD & Ap (see my signature)- to town!bin Umlaut

for no good reason at all

.

Note: Before you exclaim or object, my advice is to reread my signature carefully. Judge Joseph Dredd agreed to this, and his word is

LAW

[Almost50]

@Mod: AP sends his regards and says he loves your modding already.

I’ve been waiting to do this since the game thread was announced as banana’s.

This is a scum claim. I dunno how or why, but as Drew-Sta flipped red then I must be right.

My goal here is to stop T v Ts and create the best environment to have you guys carry us across the finish line.

And how are you going to tell it's T v T when you just said your reads are weak at the start of the game?

Spoiler:

The Moonlogic Queen

Spoiler:

I would have town!binned Titus too for 63 except she's already mod-confirmed, so it looks like the Turkey already got her attetion before I even had a chance, and now I have to plsy the jealous and mean type. After all, every

good

game needs to have an antagonist who is revealed -towards the end- to not be the villain. Here goes:

It could be T v T, T v S or T v T.

I am leaning towards the secind T v T rather than the first one. Call it a hunch.

End of page 3 and Black Cat joins the town!block, while Nahdia (now Dr Easy Bake) is a town lean. (I will also continue to TR DEB all through the game for outside-of-game reasons, namely his entertaining setup design)

OTOH, everytime I read a post by fwogcarf I want to scream "SCUM!", but then I'm not a "gut" oriented player, so I'm going to shut up about it for the time being. I just wanted it to be out there.

P-edit: Did I really type Black CAT?? I obviously meant Black RANGER, but I'm not editing it out, as it serves to clear me in case BR flips red at any point. Y'know.. "A50 couldn't have forgotten his p's username when ethey had all night to talk in the scum PT". (See how VERY TRANSPARENT I am?)

[Almost50]

EoP 4 and fwogcarf is still scum for 98. To put it bluntly; this is blatant exploitation of a T v T quarrel, and -een then- it's not a mere hum, but rather a shade on both sides.

Be funny if i ever find a posts with 88 typos. Be funny to see what they would typo out

Hi. I am wake

88

. Oops! I mean I am A50. (You're welcome. Dead Cops deserve a laugh every now and then too.)

Also Nahdia's definitely Town. This game is easy (well, easy to scum hunt for the main team at least. If there's a SK -as was indicated by the two NKs on N1- then I am at a loss of who that might be, but still those I called TOWN already are not it.)

Note to self: Try skimming/skipping flipped PRs bickering for a faster catch up.

Depending on fwogcarf's alignment I may move SirCakes to the town!bin (as of page 6). Also Dre-Sta voting Umlaut at this precise time makes me think they're probably not scum together (Note that I did not call Umlaut Town here. Read above if necessary)

@Mod: Posting images of bananas in every VC is bordering in harassment. Speak up, Turkey. Do you have something against monkeys?

Similar to SC, Nor is not on the same team with fwogcarf (can we have a stabdard abbreviation for that name?). This is from 221 as I don't see Nor mixing his own partner with Fenraiser (who did not have a single vote at him at the time).

And now I'll take a short recession/break and be back at the top of page 10

[Almost50]

Jeez! A bloody slash missing and the post is @$#@!#

Here's the intended format:

EoP 4 and fwogcarf is still scum for 98. To put it bluntly; this is blatant exploitation of a T v T quarrel, and -een then- it's not a mere hum, but rather a shade on both sides.

Be funny if i ever find a posts with 88 typos. Be funny to see what they would typo out

Hi. I am wake

88

. Oops! I mean I am A50. (You're welcome. Dead Cops deserve a laugh every now and then too.)

Also Nahdia's definitely Town. This game is easy (well, easy to scum hunt for the main team at least. If there's a SK -as was indicated by the two NKs on N1- then I am at a loss of who that might be, but still those I called TOWN already are not it.)

Note to self: Try skimming/skipping flipped PRs bickering for a faster catch up.

Depending on fwogcarf's alignment I may move SirCakes to the town!bin (as of page 6). Also Dre-Sta voting Umlaut at this precise time makes me think they're probably not scum together (Note that I did not call Umlaut Town here. Read above if necessary)

@Mod: Posting images of bananas in every VC is bordering in harassment. Speak up, Turkey. Do you have something against monkeys?

Similar to SC, Nor is not on the same team with fwogcarf (can we have a stabdard abbreviation for that name?). This is from 221 as I don't see Nor mixing his own partner with Fenraiser (who did not have a single vote at him at the time).

And now I'll take a short recession/break and be back at the top of page 10

[Almost50]

OK. Back. And the first post that's worth commenting on is 273 and -again- it's "carf" willing to give "someone" a pass for the day. It's unclear to me whether he meant Drew or Lucky though, as he was quoting Bob's post directed at Drew about Lucky. Elaboration would be much appreciated.

(Putting this up as an isokated post on it's own so it can be easily seen and responded for)

[Almost50]

Next up os his vote on Nahdia (284) and it's now looking like carf is struggling to find someone to vote for. It doesn't feel like "town confusion" as he is not actually engaging with his vote targets to try and get a better read. He's hust throwing his vote around.

On page 16, CLAP's vote on SC is nad, but the justification is even worse. I mean this was the VC (I edited out those who hd no votes on them):

VC 1.8

Fenraiser (1) - Black Ranger
NorwegianBoyEE (1) - Umlaut
Black Ranger (1) - CantLynchAPuppy
bob3141 (2) - osuka, fenraiser
fwogcarf (3) - Nahdia, bob3141, SirCakez
Umlaut (1) - Drew-Sta
SirCakez (2) - NorwegianBoyEE, ManateeDude
Nahdia (1) - Fwogcarf

Not Voting

(2) - Wake88, Titus
[/color]

And here is the post he voted in:

Three days to go and the wagon development feels really slow. Gotta zoom!

VOTE: SirCakez

Just because I have this slot as null and he seems like the biggest comparison to fwog, who I have as null/town

And my mind has travelled the universe and back trying to figure out what that was supposed to mean. Like it was 3 days to deadline so you're trying to consolidate, so you add a third vote on the counterwagon to that on your TR and mot a seconf vote on the person you calim you want to lynch? It's not like 2, 3 or even 4 votes are a serious wagopn at that point anyway, but why not push for your original/main SR instead since surpassing 3 votes on your TR is very much achievable if you had any case at all?

Then the lst line sounds like absolving oneself from the ramification of the flip, because he didn't really have a SR there, it was just a NULL read. And he's not even sure carf is town, so it's not really an "I would rather this over that because we've got no timw and hammer is imminent" kind of thing. It's just an "I have a weak TR in this and have no read on that, and while I have a SR on a third person and there's no danger of a rushed wagon on any of them at the moment I will choose to place my vote on the Null read rather than the Scum read with 3 days left to deadline".

Then at the top of page 17 Titus suggests a 3-players pool to lynch from

that includes SC

whom he had just voted, and he exclaims why????

[Almost50]

@Titus: Can you explain why you TR carf without the use if the word "feels"?? Please and thank you.

[Almost50]

429 is actually surprising me. Let me see if carf does commit to his SR on Drew.

And here comes the first vote on the Drew wagon and -once again- Black Ranger is town here.

Ok Drew might be town here.

You don't need to explain the TR on carf if you don't want to. I'm just going to let you do your thing while I do mine.

Ok Drew might be town here.

I wouldn't jump to a townread just yet but he gets a pass

So. The pass was meant for Drew and not LL slot?

Nor is playing care-free, which I think is town indicative of him. I'd take this with a frain of salt though as he is good as scum too.

Important: I am skimming hard on some pages, so if it looks like I've missed something important please feel free to point it out to me.

*twirls moustache*

I seem to recall Umlaut doing that earlier. Is this some sort of a secret club/society greeting or something? Are you two scum together???

By now I think Nor/Manatee/carf/Umlaut/LL are my suspects (broad lynch pool) but I'm more interested in flipping Manatee/LL today.

[Almost50]

Oh, shit. On page 23 and BR switched vote. Understandable as the Drew wagon didn't take off and it was only him there, but now I can't wait to see how the day ended with a Drew lynch.

Im pushing manntee.

And then he dies.

VOTE: Bob

We need a lynch. I am worried about the wagon participation rate but we can't hold out any longer.

You already explained that you think scum are content with town pushing town. What makes you happy voting the leading wagon at the time??? (yes, I'm questioning the IC's decisions. I need to understand exactly how you think to be able to decide whether I can sheep you when I have doubts of my own about one thing or another)

Page 28.. just afew hours to deadline.. and NOT A SINGLE VOTE ON DREW!!

Without thinking much about it, there is at least one scum in { drew, umlaut, puppy }

Was osuka shot over this post or did he also crumb something? I mean, Drew was already lynched, so why shoot osuka??

OK, stike out Umlaut for certain. 717 does it for me. Manatee> LL >> carf > Nor for me.

And now I need to ask just ONE question: How did you guys end up lynching Fenraiser on D2 after all that hard defense of Manatee by flipped scum on D1? A defense that was certainly not done under any pressure as it didn't look like Drew's lynch was in any rational scope at the time. Did you all think it was TMI done for town!cred after te Manatee lynch goes through or something like that?

Page 30: OR osuka was killed because he could swing a lynch anywhere he wanted in just a few hours??

@manatee you asked if there’s anything you can do

Vote drew

works with me

VOTE: drew

Backstabber.

Run me again for drew!scum pls.

Yeah.

We're running out of time and these wagons need to be consolidated.

Thanks for pointing out the obvious

Vote drew please

Reason?

Guess I'm the next mislynch??

[Almost50]

By virtue of no options, Manatee. I just think the reasons for it are shit and I honestly think we'll see them flip town.

If it ain't Manatee it has to be fwogcarf (in addition to Luciano). I still make it 50-50 at best that this was a distancing move rather than an actual push. Whoever lives of the two gets to be "conf!town by virtue of being the CC to the other".

It could also be a last minute attempt to limit the loss, as lynching a Goon may have been better than lynching the Nea??

And that was the end of D1

[Almost50]

D2:

im all caught up

Agree manatee is probably spewed clear and

osuka probably isn't scum for pushing that Drew lynch.

No shit! What if I told you I still think osuka is scum?

Honestly, real-life obligations or no, I think we kind of have to lynch Wake if he doesn't start playing the game.

Wake88 has been lynched. He was an:

Atomic Bomb

Everybody loses; including the lynchee. Mod is hospitalized and has a survival chance of a ranch turkey on Thanks Giving.

thanks for playing. Stay safe.

Subject: Large Normal 228: Bananas - Night 2

Umlaut: how pure is this wagon?

ManateeDude (6) -

bob3141

, Umlaut,

Titus

, Nahdia, SirCakez,

osuka

[L-2]

Personally I'd go for all-town (or -at leat- Mafia-free)

Every confirmed-town player was on the Manatee wagon (and also I was). So if we think scum was on the wagon then fmpov it has to be Nahdia or SirCakez.

Why Nahdia? She only had one vote on her, so she really didn't need to join the Manatee wagon for survival.

Here are my alternative propositions:

(1) It was an all-town wagon on town. Scum kept clear and were vanity wagoning (prove false since fen flipped green and I know I am also green)

(2) Both manatee & Cakez are town and Scum decided to keep the equilibrium (which makes it Nahdia on Manatee and any of the 4 on SC + flipped scum Drew). My only reservation is I TR Nahdia hard here. Even more than I do you.

(3) SC is Scum and Manatee is Town. Now why did Drew refuse to lynch Manatee to save his p if for nothing else?

(4) Manatee is Scum and SC is Town. That one is the most plausible one, and it explains why Drew refused to vote Manatee (probably has a more powerful role than Nea considering -in this case- he would be bus'ing his own p to survive). It also makes the Manatee wagon all-town proposition more likely, and the third scum was also voting SC (and considering I suspect all 4 of them, and more so the last 3 of them, that's actually where my money is at.

NOTE 1: #4 is also plausible for Manatee+Nor to be the 2 scums alive. In this case I'd double down on Manatee having a MUCH stronger role than Nea. LL can be the SK maybe.

NOTE 2: Regarding my TR on Nahdia it was explained earlier. Please search for her name in my ISO and find the specific reason/post why I TR her.

I'll be honest, I've been suspicious of Fenraiser for quite a while now

I seriously din't know why, but EVERYTIME I read a post of yours my guts scream "SCUM POST".

the arguement that im scumbuddies with Drew is bizarre honestly. on top of the fact that I was in a way worse place and mafia neopolitan is a fairly strong role especially in a (near) mini so it seems unlikely a stronger mafia role exists. why would I bus drew like that at EoD?? I was in a substantially worse place then him and lynching me if I was scum is always a better scenario bc I have next to no associations

Role Cop, JOAT & Watcher are all stronger roles for Mafia to have. Also Psychiatrist on the case of a SK in-play, although that isn't listed in the ecplicitly Normal Roles list.

I would even argue that a Mafia Babysitter is stronger than Nea with the existence of another lilling role (SK or Vig) which is already a given.

Main point was getting a lynch as having one is better than nothing.

Same thing Drew said shortly before he got wagoned for the last time. Coincidence? O think not. But we will see.

[Almost50]

VC 2.6

Wake88 (4) - Umlaut, SirCakez, Black Ranger, Titus [L-2]

This is actually looking good for Umlaut/SC/BR. There's absolutely no reason for scum to push the lutker that looks like the designated lynch of the day. In fact, they'd either ignore or soft defend in this case, lnowing that it is a mislynch and that people normally would FoS those who pushed it.

Town OTOH get frustrated with the slot they cannot get a read on, and are much more likely to push there thinking it's scum who doesn't know how to play scum, doesn't like to play scum or is inconfident enough they prefer to go under the radar. This should not apply to seasoned players (suck as wake88) though, because he totally knows how to play scum and isn't afraid of posting "fake reads" and stuff. I dunno if hr hates playing scum, but I definitely know he lurks a LOT as TOWN of late. (Like, ANYBODY could have just checked his most recent games. Duh!)

Geez! 4 votes in 6 minutes on Cakez?? Does this look normal to you? Cuz it doesn't to me.

EoP 51 and still believe LL+carf make a lot of sense as 2 scuns together, and Manatee can either be town of SK in this case. The reason I think LL+carf is more likely is them both keepong wake88 at "scumlean" but wanting to lynch elsewhere. This makes keeps the door open for then to go back to pushing the slot in the future if they need to, but also absolves them from responsibility if he was flipped on D2.

You guys need to decide if wake (now Almost50) is scum and needs to be lynched, or is "not the correct lynch" and thus is ABOVE the Null line for you (and this goes for everyone alive, actually). Decide NOW.

And you know what? I am upgrading Umlaut to a full TR (i.e, removing him from SK pool too). So -unless we somehow have an explicit guilty or a really obvious slip- my lynch pool is going to be in LL/carf/Nor/Manatee for the foreseen furure.

This doesn't make any sense, why would you move off your preferred lynch which is at L-1 to another wagon?

Because -at the time- if SC is lynched and flipped Town then LL wasn't on him. If Fen takes off (which is what happened) then it wasn't his preferred lynch, Either way "it wasn't his fault". See where I'm coming from?

Because while I' more confident in scum between {Nahdia, Cakez}, I feel more strongly about Fen being scum than either of those slots individually. So while I think it's better for the game to sort between Nahdia and Cakez, I'm just going to let the game play out how Titus wants it to and vote Fen.

Good explanation. I don't buy it though. Not from someone as relatively new as your join date suggests.

Note: This is not you usual "let's harass the newbie" kind of push. In fact, you've gained a fan in me already with your elaborate play (and especially so if you are SCUM). It's just how I'm reading the game.

Another note: I'll admit O've been skimming, and

especially

the lomger posts. If you feel like I missed something in the likes of 1303; please feel free to requote the exact portion or retype a new -shorter- post. Thank you.

@Bake, just go ahead and hammer and we can move on to the next day phase.

This is like

the

scummest post int he whole thread (and probably the scummiest I've seen in 2020 yet). WHY couldn't you wait for wake's replacement to arrive too? Mid had promised and additional 72 hours already, so what's the hurry?

[Almost50]

So, who are we MISlynching today? Not Titus, I hope. That would be too scummy to push and too hard to achieve. I mean, it's not IMPOSSIBLE (*Smirk*) but I'd rather we get a little more subtle mislynch today that won't require all anri-town slots to be on it.

Note: NOT saying ALL anti-Town were on Fen. I'm saying that's what it would take to get the IC lynched in this game.

[Almost50]

@Luciano: So you're trying to copy your exact town posting style from that game here? Nice to know.

Also, nice that you managed to catch the specific details of my case on you while skimming, and having enough time to go grab your own post from another game when you had just said you didn't have the time.

[Almost50]

Update: Now that we have a GS and a JK flipped, we now know we had at least 4 PRs. You still think Nea is the strongest role Scum had?

^ @Manatee ^

@Nor: I don't remember you playing against Scum me either. Just go to you topics page though and put Almost50 in your serach box and check the games we played together.

As for you being good at scum, I don't remember where exactly I go this, but I seem to have this impression that your scum!game is semi-identical to your town!game in terms of tone. I just think you are more careful with your posting (care more about how you look) as scum. Maybe I am confusing you with someone else??

[Almost50]

Oh wait... That bastard game by Korina!?

Maybe. I mean, playing on alts and in many game styles (Normal, Open, Themed.. etc) confuses me sometimes. My short term memory also doesn't help (I get to keep the "impression" but forget the "cause"). I may have even played you with an un-outed alt (I honestly do NOT remember that either)

[Almost50]

I think one more scum must be between (Manatee, LL, fwog)

That's my lynch pool, mate. All 3 of them

[Almost50]

I would also like to remind everyone to treat the day as LyLo (from a Town PoV). It is 5-2-1 as we speak, so a mislynch coupled with 2 kills on town and we would be 2-2-1 (that's the worst case scenario, but it has to be considered, as if that happens we lose and are kingmakers)

[Almost50]

It is 5-2-1 as we speak

2 maf 1 sk?

Doesn't matter to me if it started as 2 teams of 2 or a team of 3 and a SK. The point is we have those numbers anyway. (Unless the mod was trolling when he made it "barely" a Large just to give us the false impression of MB, and we have a REALLY bad Vig. I won't even consider this)

[Almost50]

Nurse isn't a PR.

I mean, I agree with the rest of the post, but Nurse here was a "Named Townie" to give the Scum Nea a false positive (They'd get Not Vanilla). Nurse would have been a PR only if we did have a Doctor, which we obviously don't because we have a flipped Town JK already.

[Almost50]

Stop being mean towards A50. I love his tone.

It's because I said everytime I read a post of his I want to scream "SCUM!" (which is true, btw).

[Almost50]

So Role cop was the SK-cop and Gunsmith was the mafia-cop. Pretty sure Ranger investigated Fwog N1, so Fwog would be not-mafia. I could buy him as SK.

Considering this is a NORMAL, I would like to inform you that the Role Cop gets VANILLA when they target the SK

(But -of course- who am I to argue with someone who has 10 years of experience to back them up)

[Almost50]

Sry i’m dumb. You’re completely right.

You do know you were the 4th person in my 4 suspects pool, right? Now on this page a lone you committed TWO scumtells (that's MAFIA tells). The first is when you lowkey suggested we hunt for the SK. The second is this one. You agreeing on something that is totally false. Come one, Nor! With all your experience in the Normal queue you can't honestly tell me that you didn't know that SK was considered an ALIGNMENT and thus can't be given to a ROLE COP (who gets ROLES, but NOT alignments)

[Almost50]

He definitely could fake that catchup as scum.

Get over it already. That game was like 4-5 years ago.

[Almost50]

@Luciano: What is the definition of toxic/toxicity in your book, of you please? because I don't think I said/made one single toxic phrase/move on anyone. Unless merely FoSing you is considered toxic to you then I don't know what you're talking about.

And my remark was a direct counterpoint to your earlier response. I don't care how long you've been playing, but if you didn't know SK's role is Vanilla you're not as experienced as you may think you are.

So, now you need to decide whether I was correct to consider you a newbie. or if you were deliberately stating inaccurate info with the intention of misleading town.

The choice is yours (in Jigsaw's voice)

[Almost50]

Well, let's just say you're new to MS then. Same case applies though.

P.S. WELCOME to the site. I already said I was liking your play in general. Liking you though doesn't mean I replaced in to lose to you (or rather to gift you the win).

Also -as a side remark- the fact that I was not instantly shot upon my replace-in during the night points to a higher probability scum AND SK don't know me wellm which is why I am having a hatd time deciding if Nor is anti-town or not. The other 3 (including Manatee) wouldn't shoot me on the night I replaced in.

[Almost50]

Regarding my argument: i have a saying (many of those who played me before know it) and that is "in order to catch scum; think like scum". I don't think >I< would work hard to build a wagon on someone and then jump off it citing such reasoning (i.e. while still keeping SC in my lynch pool). I'd only leave the SC wagon if I was convinced he was CLEAR.

As scum though, I might do just that. I mean, hop off the wagon when it looks like it may actually lead to a lynch.

For the second part, I suspect it is more incriminating than you had intended it to be. Please reread your own phrasing. You are saying you KNOW Wake was Town?? You certainly wanted to preserve the slot and protect it from being NK'd, so you are either saying you know my slot is Town or you are saying I'm your scum buddy!!

[Almost50]

@Luciano: Let me tell you something.. in fact I did mention it in my analysis so here's a recap: As Town; I would have wanted to lynch wake. The only thing that would stop me from doing that is the fact we have 2 kills per night, so I would actually be hoping he would end up being killed to save us the trouble.

Now let me ask you this: WHY did you want wake to survive this long? Cuz I know he wasn't even reading the thread (proven by his weird post declaring he won't be claiming results .. in the middle of day ONE. The guy didn't even know what day it was)

[Almost50]

Do you really want to talk about your slot? What if I told you that when the time comes I can explain myself such that if you are town, I must be town, and that I can confirm my thought process with references from each day phase? Would you be willing to table this topic for now to look elsewhere? We have all day to come back to this if you wish.

Of course I'd be willing to table it for later. We have 3 anti-town players living and I have a 4-players lynchpool, so i must be wrong on at least one. Furthermore, I do not claim to be omnipotent so there's a relatively good chance I am wrong on one of my TRs too, so let's say I would actually expect to find two scums in my pool and give it a 50-50 on the 3rd one.

[Almost50]

I think Black Ranger checked Umlaut night 1. It makes his stretched, awkward tunnel make sense. It's also part of what people found scummy IMO.

Huh? I don't think JKs have guns. I mean, not according to the list a Normal GS would get "Has a gun" on.

[Almost50]

I think the rolecop was designed to get a guilty on the serial killer and the gunsmith was designed to get a guilty on mafia.

*Sigh*

@Luciano: I retract my "newbie" description on you, and I do apologize on top of it.

Also @Titus: How is a Role Cop going to get a guilty on a Neapolitan??

[Almost50]

I think we should still look into A50 more. I'm not really convinced by his posting.

When was the last time you were convinced by anything I say??

[Almost50]

He definitely could fake that catchup as scum.

Get over it already. That game was like 4-5 years ago.

I have no idea what you're even referring to here

I'm talking about the ONE GAME you saw me do that as Scum. I know it was the only one because I never did it again. It was my first game on the site and I didn't know what to do after having losy my partner on D1 and failed to pick the correct kill between RC & SS (Snarky).

In short, I'm talking about THIS game.

[Almost50]

I just know you're a competent player and good at putting out content regardless of alignment

I'll take this as a compliment, so THANK YOU.

Now seriously, if you think I'm hard to read and would be able to replicate my town game as scum, how about you check out wake's play AS TOWN? Here's a list of his town games in the last year:

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=82764 (He was Innocent Child)
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=82679 (You were in this game. He was a Watcher)
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=81665 (I personally replaced him on this one. "We" were VT)

Now compare that to his scum game here:

viewtopic.php?f=53&t=81560 (Mafia 1-shot Strongman)

and tell me if you see the difference.



-

[Almost50]

If we kill 1 mafia and there are 2 kills on town from last mafia + SK we are down to. 3v1v1. Which is not the best option. Some scum are already pretty much caught anyway, so the point is to get rid of SK first.

It doesn't matter all that much really. If we lynch the SK today it will be 4-2 which is MyLo, and considering (a) Even numbers are better than Odd numbers for scum, and (b) the possibility of cross-killing; I think it cancels out the small advantage of MyLo over LyLo.

Let me elaborate a little:

5-2-1 >> Lynch the lone scummer (whether that is a SK or a 2nd team Mafia is irrelevant) >> 5-2 going into the night >> 4-2 tomorrow guaranteed

5-2-1 >> Lynch 1 of the main team >> 5-1-1 going into the night >> 3-1-1 tomorrow with a possibility of 4-1 or even 5-0-0 (Game over).

So, the important thing today is to lynch an anti-town slot (i.e. avoid a mislynch at all costs)

I see no advantage in Not Lynching either, or I would have demanded it. All it does though is buy us another day but we would still be relying on cross-kills, which isn't good for us.

We have to lynch correctly today is my final conclusion (which is why my vote is still idle rather than thrown randomly at one of my suspects)

[Almost50]

@DEB, have you caught up yet?

I'm here now, shouldn't that be more important?

If I could meet you face-to-face I'd probably be kissing you on one cheek for your modding and slap you on the other for your playing.

[Almost50]

Here are 2 questions I asked in my catch up that went unanswered.

@fwogcaf:

OK. Back. And the first post that's worth commenting on is 273 and -again- it's "carf" willing to give "someone" a pass for the day. It's unclear to me whether he meant Drew or Lucky though, as he was quoting Bob's post directed at Drew about Lucky. Elaboration would be much appreciated.

(Putting this up as an isokated post on it's own so it can be easily seen and responded for)

@Titus:

@Titus: Can you explain why you TR carf without the use if the word "feels"?? Please and thank you.

[Almost50]

A50 what are your thoughts on my spicy SK read?

1- I don't see it
2- I am not hunting for one scum side over the other

[Almost50]

I'll just pop off this mass claim right now, because i'm feeling starved for content now that this is the only game i can post in atm.
Im a VT.

Did you crumb at all??

[Almost50]

Let's see that last sentence in close up:

Long li

v

e

t

he new king.

= VT

UNDENIABLE EVIDENCE.

Huh! Beat this:

Hello again to the people I know, and nice to meet you to those I don't

Now to those I don't know: I am a

v

ery

t

ransparent player. Like the most transparent player on the whole site, if I may so myself. Now as different people may have

v

arious

t

ranslations of the term, it may take you some

v

ivid

t

raining to get the

v

irtual

t

ype of transparency I'm referring to.

To those who already know me... let's talk about the weather. Like, how's it going in

Vermont

?

P.S. Did you know that Vermont's postal code is Vt??? I bet you didn't (you being from Norway, that is)

Also post 300 by wake was a slip of his role being VT. What bloody results was he talking about? Anyone with an active ability would have known it hasn't been time to use it yet (or they would have been notified via PM that "It's N1 and you have until [deadline] to submit any actions"

[Almost50]

So an A50 lynch is back on the table.

You thought I was a TPR???? What gives?

[Almost50]

A50, is it you...?

Yes. It's the same old monkey. I mean, I'm using my main here, so your question doesn't make sense.

[Almost50]

More specifically, I was operating under the assumption that Wake was doc.

Could you please reread my catch up? I said that I do NOT believe there is a Doctor in this setup, because we did have a JK flip (it's unusual to have both JK & Doc on the same side). I also called the Nurse flip a "named Townie" that was meant to give the Scum Nea a false alarm of a PR (baiting Scum NK unto a powerless slot)

[Almost50]

I actually think the doctor could be a scum role designed to bypass the gunsmith. I'd include a compulsive disloyal doctor in a setup like this. That's probably moonlogic though.

It's not moonligic if taken at face value (Scum Doctor to bypass GS). But then we had a Nurse flip that said they'd be upgraded if a "Doctor died" (i.e. didn't specify alignment). THAT would be a really bad move from a balance PoV, because it spells "on addition to Scum losing their Doctor they ALSO are up against a Town Doctor". Even with a Disloyal Scum Doctor they'd know who the protected player is in advance, while a Town Doctor doesn't give them that advantage.

In short, when I look at balance I view as "compensating the side that lost a PR to keep them in the game" rather than "reward the side that already took the lead with more power". The Compulsive Disloyal Scum Doctor would have been very much an option IF Osuka's flip included "TOWN" Doctor rather than just "Doctor"

[Almost50]

I kinda don't want to lynch A50 or EE or LL or Cakez because they care about the game atm. I know town might be demoralized here due to the shitty lack of cross kills and moderation but I find it hard to go after my SRs nonetheless.

Would you reconsider fwogcarf for me, please? We can meet halfway and lynch there is you will.

[Almost50]

Oh, and I guess Manatee works too

[Almost50]

So be it.

VOTE: Manatee

[Almost50]

Not if I have anything to say about it.

Hopefully you don't. Look into my eyes.. you're a sheep! You are MY sheep. You do as I say and you vote where I tell you to.

Spoiler:

[Almost50]

23 hours after my last post and only 2 players posted twice each. On a Wednesday (i.e. not even a weekend).

[Almost50]

Oh, well. I don't even know what to do next then. All I have right now is a tinfoil theory that we are wagoning the 2nd scum indeed (the one they tried and managed to save on D1), and it made the third one replace out untimely (he did say he was quitting Mafia AFTER this game not during it)

[Almost50]

The mighty Titus will be back sometime soon, I am sure. She's just taking a rest from all the madness that surrounds us. I have faith in you to be back on your feet though, and even stronger than you were.

[Almost50]

Well, despite the fact that 3 Mafia + 1 SK is always more likely, and despite the fact that what lead me to type the bolded in the first post was reading someone proposing it was 2 teams of 2 (I don't remember who), I will ignore both these points and go straight to the 3rd: You seem to have missed the phrase "tinfoil

theory

". You're quoting it, but it's not registering in your mind. By definition; a theory is

an idea used to account for a situation or justify a course of action

, and -in this case- it explains the untimely replace out.

[Almost50]

@LL: 1588 was talking about why fwogcart would replace out at this time. I get that you would consider it NAI and it could very well have been due to RL, but

assuming it's not

(first thing about a theory is it's based on and assumption leading to a supposition that explains something), so assuming it's not RL I proposed the theory aforementioned. Given the assumption he could not have been SK (nothing changed for them), could not have been unhappy someone from

the other team

was wagoned (why would he care, and how would he even know for sure?). He could not even been unhappy about his own teammate (of 2) being wagoned (that happened on D1 and he didn't leave). The ONLY proposition left to make (ASSUMING HE REPLACED OUT FOR IN-GAME REASONS) is that he is a member of a 3-players team, who had lost 1 already, but was hoping his living buddy could carry him still, but then that second buddy also looks like being in the chop (or maybe he was angry Manatee flaked on him??), so he decided to quit.

Nice observation though.

[Almost50]

I mentioned it earlier. There is no way to explain Ranger tunneling Fwog D1 then suddenly town reading him D2 and never mentioning him again unless he investigated Fwog N1.

This is a quote from the wiki:

In Normal games on mafiascum.net, a Gunsmith gets guilties on all Mafia (except Traitors and Doctors),

So a Gunsmith clear is a soft clear at best. I won't throw away my own reads based on some speculation of who the dead GD incestigated and what their result was, and

especially so

when I had checked and found no trace of a "tunnel". In fact; Ranger voted fwogcart for a whole 2 posts (48 hours apart, but that was because he didn't post at all between them. He voted fwogcart in 184

and gave no particular reason

for it. His next post was 293 and he voted fen in 294. I thus would very much appreciate if you quoted some of Black Ranger's "tunneling" on fwogcart to begin with, and THEN we can talk.

-fixed post tags

[Almost50]

Fuck! I messed up the brackets and coped them too!!!

@Mod: Would you be kind enough to correct my brackets so as they actually link to the mentioned posts? I put ] instead of [ 3 times.

[Almost50]

I'd rather lynch between slots that can be either SK or Mafia. That rules out Fwog today (SK Only), and make me hesitant on Manatee (D1 wagon dynamics make me think he's likely not mafia). I'm most willing to lynch between {A50, Cakez, DEB}.

This is daft, and now I'm left with the dilemma of deciding whether it's town daft of a scum-motivates announcement.

I say there is NO EVIDENCE that Black Ranger ever targeted fwogcart to begin with and ASK FOR QUOTES to prove nthe allegation, and Signor Luciano here IGNORES the request and INSISTS fwogcart can't be Mafia. Furthermore he wants us to abandon the OTHER Mafia read which we are voting to follow his own illusions/schemes (depending on whether it's daft town of a scum move). Thanks but no thanks, amico mio.

[Almost50]

@LUCIANO:

You said Ranger tunneled on fwogcart on D1.

QUOTE IT.

[Almost50]

We can all vote Manatee to end the day for starters. It also serves to save us the wait for a replacement to the slot. Fwog's replacement has been requested already, so if that doesn't happen overnight I'm sure the mid will be able to do something about it. Game abandonment is never a good option, and it only happens if the MOD decides they can't run it to completion.

Just vote Manatee and let's get the flip.

[Almost50]

You're the one who suggested it in 1618. Or are you PK just abandoning the game but not OK finishing properly?

[Almost50]

My bad then, but now I have to wonder why is it alright to abandon the game and not to get it done with properly. Y'see, I maybe wrong, but when someone calls for the abandonment it gives me the feeling they don't care about the game anymore, so it's should be alright for them to just end it in any way. You being alright quitting but not OK lynching an absent slot raises the question of "what have you got to lose if the game went on?". You do understand what I'm insinuating, don't you?

[Almost50]

@DEB: Get on manatee, and if he flips red (and he will. I say) we lynch LL next. (And I kinda wish I could PM each and every single one of you telling you what LL is going to say next)

[Almost50]

You can wait for as long as you want. manatee has been hammered already so it all depends on whether gobble has flaked site or not

[Almost50]

You think Nor helps us lynch his mafia partner with the state the game is in? Or do you think manatee is not group scum? I'm not sure I understand.

Let's just wait for the flip (and the NKs) first and then we decide how to proceed.

[Almost50]

Do Americans celebrate the 4th of July with turkey too??

[Almost50]

I was expecting him to fall into the trap most noobs fall in, claiming I was "chain

lynching

executing", but he didn't.

[Almost50]

And if he does then I can't be chain executing, because saying "we should lynch Y provided X flips red" in never chaining. Chaining is stating that one of the two is scum, so if we execute X and they flip TOWN then we lynch Y. THAT is chain execution.

[Almost50]

This is possibly LyLo so I’m not gonna vote rn but from pages up to 30 Titus is on my SR list

Lamest fake slip I have ever seen in quite a while.

And with SC gone I am left with no TRs (except for Titus, of course).

In fact, I feel like Terminating JV still for that fake slip.

[Almost50]

Second would be lucky though I haven’t got up to the bit where puppy replaced out and lucky back in

Of course not voting yet

Also this pretension of worry about TLo is like... we are 3-1-1, so a vote on anyone isn't going to get them quick hammered, and if it did then GL dodging the "other scum's" bullet.

[Almost50]

Please don't just sheep me because lylo.

Well, I'm not gonna fight you either. I shall thus stay put to see if anything changes.

[Almost50]

We're in 3v1v1.

Alright so we are in lylo

We could be in 3 v 2 as well. Either way, lylo.

I guess. Although there's a major difference in that if a miss-termination occurs we would still have a shot in a 2-1-1 situation provided both sides shoot each other, while in a 2-2 would instantly end the game.

However, my biggest argument of it being Mafia + SK is that both flipped Mafia had no hint in their PMs about them being primary/secondary or red/blue team. Then again, if could be Mafia + WWs and the mod decided to not differentiate between kill flavours because NORMAL GAME RULES, so not totally ruling it out.

[Almost50]

Double-checking here, SKs don't have to be BP in normals. Care to explain how you

know

the SK is BP, A50?

Where did I say I

know

that?

Also, weren't you just promoting the idea that I was a 3rd mafioso? And we've has 2 kills every single night? SO I couldn't have known it from -say- having shot you and you not dying! this leaves you the one and only option to change your narrative to me being the SK, which then makes your whole case smell like farts because the essence of it was that my slot didn't vote group scum on D1.

But, loke, let me keep it simple for you: Let's start with where you got the impression that I know the SK is BP

[Almost50]

So, we know A50 is SK. Now we need to figure out who is mafia between JV and Norwegian.

Actually it's HV and you, and I'm alright letting Nor win this if I am wrong about either of you.

Also, show me some guts and actually vote me if you think I'm a BP SK. I mean, that would be the ONLY way I go. Right? Because if we did have 2 NKs per night (and we did) then I couldn't have been shot myself, thus my BP is still active and Mafia can't kill me tonight.

[Almost50]

I mean, I already dismissed my case on you being locked mafia based on VCA once I realized that due to mod error, Fwog was not included on the EoD VC D1.

So you had to find another angle to make me look sus. Right?

As for how you know the SK is BP, I conclude that from here,

I guess. Although there's a major difference in that if a miss-termination occurs we would still have a shot in a 2-1-1 situation provided both sides shoot each other, while in a 2-2 would instantly end the game.

If a non-BP SK and mafia shoot each other, the game is over.

I doubt you believe the kills will cancel each other out, so the only logical conclusion is that you have knowledge of BP from your own role PM and slipped in your NK analysis here.

Again; show me where I said anything that contradicts the bolded. I said "we have a shot" as in "we can still win" provided they shoot each other. Are you not an English speaker? Did you misunderstand "shot" as me saying only one kill would go through? I honestly don't get what you're saying, so I need you to elaborate more.

[Almost50]

Care to walk me through why you even considered that Manatee could be scum? Titus said she had a moonlogic theory that Manatee could be scum, you wanted to push Fwog, and then when Titus voted Manatee you said 'fuck it, I'm in'. Care to walk me through any missing steps?

My case of fwog is in my ISO, and SO IS MY CASE ON MANATEE.

As for "why follow the IC?", I find that an odd question to ask, especially since we weren't getting anywhere with my fwog push.

[Almost50]

It is "somewhere" in my ISO. As I got the slot (during a night phase) I started catching up and putting down notes with the intention to get them posted as soon as the thread was reopened, and I made sure every step of my thoughts was accounted for in said notes. Why X was town, why Y was likely scum, and why limit my pool to these specific names. IIRC (and I'm NOT going to check back, so forgive me if I'm mis-remembering) Manatee was the designated D1 Termination target up until the Drew guy decided to attract more attention unto himself and get lynched instead, which was a sign Manatee may have been the Mafia powerful PT (seeing as Drew himself was a PR). In other words, I couldn't see Drew misplaying this so bad that he takes the Termination off 2 Town players (SC & Manatee) and unto himself, so I deduced the sacrifice was done for an elaborate reason rather than being someone who didn't know how to behave for a few more hours.

[Almost50]

You know what I'm thinking? I'm thinking of No Elimination. Scum can shoot each other or can shoot town. If they both shoot town though they make the last townie as a kingmaker. If only one of then shoot town and the other shoots the opposing scum we're in a 2v1 Elo. If they both shoot each other we win.

The only problem here is if Titus' theory is spot on and we are indeed 3v2 now, so No Elimination = surrender.

@Virgo: Why did you dismiss the 2 Mafia teams after last night?

[Almost50]

To be more clear on the above: Either scum not hunting for the other is them playing against their own win con (assuming there is a SK and nor a 2-person scum team remaining)

P-edit: We are nopt talking about ONE team with 2 kills (that's absurd). We are talking about TWO TEAMS with a kill each,

[Almost50]

I'll wait for both Titus and Nor to say their piece about this.

[Almost50]

To be more clear on the above: Either scum not hunting for the other is them playing against their own win con (assuming there is a SK and nor a 2-person scum team remaining)

P-edit: We are nopt talking about ONE team with 2 kills (that's absurd). We are talking about TWO TEAMS with a kill each,

Oh, I've never played a game where that is a thing... Sorry

Well, considering this is a Normal there is NO Mafia Vig (Vigilante is only white listed for TOWN).

[Almost50]

2v1v1 being worst case for town is exactly what they want.

Who says 2-1-1 is bad for town? We No Eliminate AGAIN and they're FORCED to shoot each other. Whoever doesn't loses.

As for Town making the call today, that is exactly the same thing if we Mis-Eliminate, and from the looks of it we will. And I'll go even one step further an tell you why: One of you.. AT MOST.. is A STUPID TOWNIE. It could be the case that you're both scum and Nor is the Townie you know, but let's ASSUME Nor is Scum here. Who's the other? Me? I know I am not. So one of you is Scum and the other is a stupid townie who is following the same line of thought a SCUMSTER IS.

[Almost50]

For me, i KNOW at least one of you is scum, and the fact they want am Elimination today is making me more confident in going for the No Elimination. It's as simple as that.

[Almost50]

Would I have been scummy to you if I said you were trying to chain execute? Do I look townier for not having said that?

Not really. But you would have looked stupid none-the-less because of what I explained later

[Almost50]

Also, I'm not sure why you went ahead and explained a trap that I still could have fell for. Why couldn't I argue today that you were trying to chain-execute?

Because it would have looked even more stupid than the pure source of stupidity itself, and I'm giving you more credit than that.

You see, it would have been stupid to miss the condition I made (if they flipped red) BEFORE they flipped, but it is extremely and utterly stupid to say that when we know the condition no longer can be true.

[Almost50]

Meant to say 2v1v1 is worst case scenario for SK. It's 4am here.

Pedit: If I wouldn't have been scummy for falling for the trap, why lay the trap?

1-a It ain't bad for the SK either. If we lynch MAFIA then SK wins.
1-b So you also thought of a double No Elimantion?? How bizzarre!

2- Because I don't know you and I needed to gauge your IQ, see how smart you really are

[Almost50]

Err, meant to say that I meant to say 2v1v1 being worst case scenario for SK is pretty ideal for SK. I'm going back to bed.

LOLOLOLOLOLOL

Final answer? Would you like to call a friend??

Pedit: Why are you so focused on the exact level of my stupidity? How is my intelligence AI?

Because your IQ actually decides how you play the game. It determines what you can/can't do (and what you could/could not have done)

[Almost50]

Because your IQ actually decides how you play the game. It determines what you can/can't do (and what you could/could not have done)

IQ does not define alignment like at all the fuck?

And here I was thinking ENGLISH was the official language in the Land Down Under

[Almost50]

Skip to the last "what" if you please, Thank you.

[Almost50]

Intent to vote?? As a wagon starter???

[Almost50]

Actually, you know what? My lynch doesn't hurt the town that much. It just brings the 2-1-1 situation right now, and whichever of you doesn't kill the other loses. The only difference is you can both agree to share the win (which would be lame tbh).

So, let me help you there:

VOTE: A50

[Almost50]

And you CAN argue that it's 3v2 and I'm one of the 2 to get it done. Go ahead. You have my blessings.

[Almost50]

So, "what if there's an SK and that SK is BP?" you might ask. Well, good for them. I just handed them the game. But you still need to vote me before that happens.

[Almost50]

@SK: If you are BP you need to shoot the Mafioso and play a 2-1 Elo (unless he also wants to throw and decides to shoot a townie). Or maybe, he just has bad reads and doesn't know it's you, in which case you still need to shoot him EVEN if you are not BP.

[Almost50]

@JV: What's taking you so long? Come vote me

[Almost50]

Well, if I'm not hammered till I come back in 12 hours then we know it's not 2 Mafia (or that I am one of the two)

P-edit: YOUR decision, not mine.

[Almost50]

Well, here's where your logic is messy: If Scum hammer me they get shot by the other scum, so you won't be eliminating them tomorrow, that's for sure. The question is whether that scum that hammered will also shoot their opponent or shoot a townie. Either way the game ends TONIGHT, and they who hammer loses in both cases.

[Almost50]

I don't get a word you're saying! If I get hammered and one scum shoots the IC then the other can't shoot a "random" townie because there's only one townie left that's not me or Titus. If that happens the share the win and the game still ends tonight. If they both shoot Titus then the remaining townie will abstain from voting thus forcing both scum to accept a draw (or both vote then to still share a win). In short, nobody deserves the solo win unless they earn it, and they can only earn it by shooting the other scum.

In short, your middle paragraph makes no sense at all.

Now let's assume the SK is BP. The only way they don't win (if I get lynched) is if they do not shoot the Mafia (and the Mafia shoots them correctly). In this case we do emerge into that 1-1-1, and the townie still abstains.

I have said it once and I'll say it again: If Nor is the SK then I'm OK handing him the win here. If it's between you and LL I would love for you two to battle it out.

So, if you're not scum we need to eliminate LL today or go for No Elimination. If you are scum (either of them) you need to EARN your win, cuz I sure as hell am nit going to help you achieve it.

[Almost50]

OK. I am back and I have not been voted by anyone else, so I guess we can conclude that it's 3-1-1 (but JV can feel free to still think it's 3-2 with me being Mafia).

UNVOTE:

@Titus: I am not writing off Nor as "SK" (that's more likely to me than him being Mafia according to how he's been playing). As I said; I'd rather him win if Town doesn't because he's not making "really bad" arguments and assumptions at the very least.

Yet again, this isn't my game (I wasn't a starter) and you are the IC, so I'm going to vote with you once you've settled on how to go from here.

[Almost50]

A50, why are you self-voting? It’s anti-town and i don’t understand it.

It has been explained thoroughly and it isn't anti-town in this situation. No townie would have dared put a second vote on me, and NO SOLO SCUM would have either. I would have only been hammered IF there was 2 of the same team alive. which is now apparently not the case.

Now, who would you want to eliminate between A50/LL/JV, and why?

[Almost50]

Btw, since this is almost over anyway, I am going to state how >I< would have played it out if I were Mafia/SK: For me, the right play is to eliminate the "other scum" today. That should be my sole objective. Eliminating my opposition guarantees I survive the night and then we see who win in a 2-1 situation. Going for a Townie today is stupid because there's every chance that I should be shot tonight by the opposing scum and then I would have lost anyway. I can't even wait for the hammer to fall and "offer" my opponent a joint-win because how would I know they'd accept it? What if they don't? I would have outed myself.

And THAT is one reason why I prefer Nor to win if he is not Town. He's playing the correct way (from my own PoV). JV/LL coming at me is really bad play. They should have -at least- considered each other, which they didn't. (JV for no real reason, and LL because he's trying to twist everything into a narrative that fits his agenda and is often retracting when it's made obvious he is going astray)

I'll even add this bit: If I was scum and managed to eliminate the other scum today I would consider a No Kill tonight, so we are 3-1 tomorrow. Evens are statistically worse for Town than Odds (It takes all 3 townies to vote together in order to get me lynched) so it might be the best move (not sure if that's what I'd do, but

I will consider it

)

[Almost50]

And town in a 3v1 would no lynch into a 2v1.

That would be great. Ever heard of town apathy? The longer the game goes stagnant the less town players care and they start doing "whatever" just to get the game over and done with.

[Almost50]

@Nor: And what do you think about my proposition of a No Elimination and letting them cross-kill instead? What are the pros and cons of that in your view?

[Almost50]

No elimination is dumb

Is Nor a possible abbreviation to your name?? No?? Then why the hell are you responding to a question that wasn't directed at you? You've already said your piece about the subject. Now I need to know what Nor/Titus think about it. Thank you very much.

[Almost50]

No elimination is dumb

Quoted for truth.

Noted.

[Almost50]

@Nor: And what do you think about my proposition of a No Elimination and letting them cross-kill instead? What are the pros and cons of that in your view?

I almost never agree to a no lynch unless the arguments in favor are very compelling.

You do realize the IC wants to eliminate you, right? You think that's better for Town than No Elimination? *Shrug*

[Almost50]

@JV: So let me get this straight. You think it's me and LL, but you are siding by LL to lynch me rather than siding by Nor (the one you are TRing the most/SRing) to lynch LL? I mean, I get that you could either side by me or LL against the other as we are both SRs to you, but why go against your TR if we are BOTH Scum to you?

[Almost50]

That was *SRing the least

[Almost50]

But you said you'd vote LL over Nor anyway, so it makes more sense to test that theory of yours today too. In essence you don't mind eliminating BOTH me and LL, so it shouldn't make a difference to Town!You who goes first.

HOWEVER, SK You (which you keep accusing me of being it) does worry, because you would want to eliminate a townie today, shoot the Mafia at night and come back accusing the "other" townie of being the SK and claiming you were wrong and it was A50's fault... etc. etc.

I mean, for me I wouldn't mind voting you or LL, and I made that quite clear. You may also be worried that -with my stance- I won't be siding by you once you've shot Titus, and she won't be siding by you if you shoot me (assuming LL eats rope today). However, eliminating me and you shooting LL may work because Titus already SRs Nor so you've got a good chance in that particular 3-players Elo.

[Almost50]

The thing is (and here's my trump) I can never win now as SK/Mafia. Why? because EVEN if we eliminate LL/You and shoot the other Nor is not going to vote Titus, and she will suspect something is VERY wrong with that outcome. If I shoot Titus instead, then NOR is going to suspect something is very wrong. If I shoot Nor then one of you/LL is my opponent in LyLo and it still looks shady for me.

Also last night's NK doesn't work with me. I wouldn't shoot DEB even if I knew he was Mafia. He was pocketing me hard, so I would have tried to hunt for his p, and if that failed we would have been in a 2-2-1 today and I could have forced a No Elimination (because town has no chance if an Elimination goes throw in a 2-2-1 situation, so I can then shoot a Mafioso and rely on my BP not to be killed (I'm following your theory of the SK having a BP here) and then we are in either 1-1-1 with my NP still intact (that means I win outright) or 2-1-1 with my BP exhausted (Town are back in it and can force another No Elimination and let it all get sorted at night).

[Almost50]

Keep on using that buzzword and you may get somewhere. Both you and LL are bringing up AtE way too much, and I have nothing to respond to it but "talk to the hand".

[Almost50]

How the fuck is it AtE when I am reviewing LOGICAL possibilities and questioning your LOGIC in picking one over the other? I have already demonstrated that I don't mind being eliminated today.

You know what? Just vote me.. both of you and LL, and I'll hammer. You can either kill each other, or one of you may survive. If one of you survives then they are the SK. Period.

And for the very small (but valid) possibility that SK of you relies on their BP and shoot a townie instead then it will be a 1-1-1 tomorrow, and the remaining townie can always force a NO ELIMINATION.

So, vote me already.

[Almost50]

You too, LL. Stop beating around the bush. You made it clear that you are either voting me or voting me.. and your third option would be voting me too, so DO IT!

[Almost50]

@Nor: Did you get that. mate? If you are in a 1-1-1 situation tomorrow HOLD YOU VOTE. Force a Draw. They can both vote you and get a joint win or they can go into the night and shoot each other. Don't give either of them their solo win.

[Almost50]

Drew-Sta, Mafia Neapolitan, removed from the town Day 1.
bob3141, Town Rolecop, killed Night 1.
osuka, Town Nurse, killed Night 1.
Fenraiser, Vanilla Townie, removed from the town Day 2.
Umlaut, Town Jailkeeper, killed Night 2.
Black Ranger, Town Gunsmith, killed Night 2.
ManateeDude, Vanilla Townie, removed from the town Day 3
Adorable, Vanilla Townie, killed Night 3.
Dr Easy bake, Mafia Goon, killed Night 3.

If I fucking buy that then:

(A) YOU are responsible for 2 TPR kills

(B) Your slot has played anti-town all game (PGO's CLAIM in D1)

(C) You've played along with the SK theory while you KNEW there wasn't one

(D) What was a GOON doing visiting you if not to kill you? Why aren't you dead??

Finally: PGOs are NEVER notified of "how many shots they still have". NEVER. Not even in a NON-NORMAL game.

But here's the knock-out: PGO isn't even a white-listed role for NORMAL GAMES. (Check that page out, or check the PGO) page to verify there is NO NORMAL GUIDELINES Section for the role).

VOTE: HAcksonVirgo

[Almost50]

Or maybe you claimed it because you're not BP and want to scare mafia from shooting you.

PGO IS NOT A NORMAL ROLE. IT CANNOT BE USED IN A NORMAL SETUP. NO ONE WOULD APPROVE IT BECAUSE IT'S NOT ON THE LIST OF EXPLICITLY NORMAL ROLES.

P-edit:

[Almost50]

@Titus: Not only have I netted you the SK, saved you the trouble for the day, but I also bought you another day to reevaluate. I am explicitly stating that I am voting LL tomorrow if I'm alive. So, LL must shoot ME over you (because you SR Nor more), and then it's a mess of a WIFOM situation (did LL really do it or did Nor frame him?).

@LL: here's a good tip: Shoot NOR. That way you are up against ME instead, and Titus will decide. That is actually your BEST play

[Almost50]

Can I ask a thing though. Are you supposed to get previous actions from who you replace? I believe you should do and I didn't so eh whatever.

Normally, you do, but let's leave that to post-game discussions. I mean, what difference would it have made to you here??

[Almost50]

JV has already self-hammered and has confessed to being the SK.

[Almost50]

As for Nor, here are 3 posts from him (I ISO'd and searched for Drew and these are the first 3 occurences):

What is this discrediting? Why are the votes on you weak?

Both Drew and Umlaut are both voting based on me stating i'd like to vote a scumread and end the day. I myself would never vote someone for that.

@Norwegian

Thoughts on Drew in general, not just regarding his vote on you?

Idk, didn't read most of his posts cus they are so long. I just think his vote on me is bad and seemed to have only like 1 paragraph of relevant justification.

Manatee, you owe me a beer for saving your arse.

I’m not seeing why you’d even consider consolidating on a wagon you clearly disagree with. Especially considering you seem to be townreading them based on what you’ve said.

Now, do you really think that was Nor distancing from a partner rather than actually SRing the slot and not liking their play?

[Almost50]

Wake could be mafia but he's never SK.

And here's a quote from LL crumbing Wake is a Doctor

[Almost50]

I'm disagreeing with the read on Manatee but agree that a consensus vote needs to occur.

Given people aren't going to vote in line with what I've suggested, Titus - can you confirm why Manatee? A poor mislynch doesn't give us worthwhile wagon analysis.

There’s a good chance I’ll die tonight so if I do, remember this as a scumpost

Without thinking much about it, there is at least one scum in { drew, umlaut, puppy }

In that group, my money's on puppy.

Definitely the worst possible bet. I think night kill spec is important though. I know I'm town, Drew was lynched before the NKs were decided. Osuka still died. NAGL for Umlaut.

And here's a reminder (and an explanation) of why Osuka died

[Almost50]

And while LL never made a mention of Drew during his first reign, he did refer to him more frequently when he took back his slot (after Drew was lynched) and it was always to frame someone.


Now check out how PUPPY (LL's interim) talked to/about Drew (and Nahdia):

I was a bit skeptical of the story too (despite contributing to it), and thought it was more likely to distract from scumhunting than to get more people posting, so I can't fault anyone criticizing it. Anyway, I think it's perfect at five sentences now.

pedit

no, it's not enough indication.

Then why

did

you contribute to it?

You're effectively rewriting how something is to be read, and I don't believe that comes from a town place.

VOTE: Umlaut

liked this whole post from drew and especially this part, which i thought was a good point

i don't want to argue, i just want to know what u're thinking

having the conf town declare what the right wagons are will not be useful to me tomorrow

having the conf town walk me through a 100% town thought process will

I feel those three wagons are most likely to hit scum. Most of the suspicions are T v T. BR, osaka, nahdia, and fro all feel town.

Bob v Cakez feels fake. Drew feels like an instigator. I doubt all of these are scum. The way people vote will set up associatives.

again, not trying to be difficult, but can you elaborate on this? kind of agree w/ your other post that scum are probably taking it easy, but this doesn't give me much of your thoughts i can come back to tomorrow

also im already on cakez so i'm not saying this just to be stubborn or anything

also, drew, what's this Norwee slip that I'm apparently dastardly helping conceal?

Your avatar and name make it almost impossible for me to properly read you without getting town vibes... I've never felt so unintentionally manipulated by someone in my life.

u're not the first person to tell me this, but honestly i made this alt to remind myself to smile more and be a nicer player. i used to be a little mean and sarcastic and want to try to have more fun!

@Black Ranger - I would like to hear your thoughts on the Nor slot.

@Puppy - what is your thoughts on Nadhia slot.

i don't have one. feel like this game isn't giving me any strong reads or passions, but since you asked i'll do an iso here later

EVEN when Drew tried to state a SR on Puppy it was more of a gentle nudge rather than a push, and then he threw that away because he "liked the avatar".

[Almost50]

If I die, promise me you'll look at EE with fresh eyes. I'll do the same if you die.

You're not dying. I promise you that. It's be the dumbest play ever for either of them to kill you now. From an ordinary player's PoV "A50 has to go now". From a more sophisticated player's PoV they should kill the "other townie" and go head-to-head with me, making you the judge, but I don't think LL is that sophisticated so I'll take the kill for you.

[Almost50]

Also Nor is smart enough he would have taken the No Elimination offer. It worked in his best interest if he was Scum. He didn't even try to use THAT to turn his read on me (and he could have done that easily). I mean, he could have eliminated me there and killed JV while JV kills LL for him.

LL was "saving me for last" thinking I am the SK (so I would kill off more town for him and he is safe because he TRs me), but when I explicitly claimed VT (and proved it it with my crumb) he switched his read on me and started sucking up to JV instead.

P-edit: I promise.

[Almost50]

You guys are basically just setting up the greatest WIFOM kill by doing this shit y’all aware of that right? I’ll just focus on the day when it comes if i don’t die. Living in the present, that’s me.

[Almost50]

Just call me Norwee

I will try, but it may be harder now than dropping the L word.

[Almost50]

Already over 52 is more like it. I was born on June 8th 1968. I tried setting up alts but I keep coming back to this one as my main. Like who would take me sriously as AP (Austin Powers) or Judge Joseph Dredd?

[Almost50]

He's not saying he thought it. He's saying he knew because it was his slot originally.

Like, the argument is he cam back to take his old slot after the Nea has been lynched

[Almost50]

@Titus: Look. It's YOUR game. I only cam in to help, and I already did that. I will vote whoever you want me to. The game is yours to win or lose.

[Almost50]

Why is Nahdia scum and is this read stronger than your read on Norwegian?

Nor is my primary read. It's not going to happen. I'd compromise on Nadhia.

Hmmm. Could it be that Drew was distancing from BOTH his scumbuddies here? I still don't think the way he voted Norwee earlier was a bus, but I am rereading (reskimming) and I saw this.

[Almost50]

Manatee, you owe me a beer for saving your arse.

I’m not seeing why you’d even consider consolidating on a wagon you clearly disagree with. Especially considering you seem to be townreading them based on what you’ve said.

And this doesn't look like an accusation you'd direct at a partner at this time. It was Manatee or Drew, and Norwee had yet to switch his vote off whomever he was voting.

[Almost50]

{BR, Cakez, fwog, Norway, Manatee}
could also lynch puppy i guess. there were some things that pinged me but it was mostly tonal which is unreliable so meh.

Also this points to LL (Puppy) more. The classic "I SR my buddy but won't have them in my immediate elimination pool". That's how I caught FL in TM2020 after Maria flipped red.

[Almost50]

on review cakez actually does raise an interesting point about norway not making many novel observations today.

I also dunno why Nahdia would side by her vote target against her scum buddy who is actually voting SC with her.

[Almost50]

on review cakez actually does raise an interesting point about norway not making many novel observations today.

Yeah, you think the guy you are voting and scumreading makes novel observations.

And Norwee is correct and upfront on his response here too. It's hard to see them as a pair who had just lost their 3rd.

[Almost50]

All town? 8 people? Yeah, no.

Why shade the wagon (and consequently himself) if both were on it? Why not call for a lynch OFF the wagon?

[Almost50]

Off-wagon were Black Ranger, SirCakes and CantLynchAPuppy for reference.

Like he was already voting SC and he could have just as easily gone for Puppy, but he chooses to switch back to an on-wagon elimination call?

[Almost50]

im not saying there defo wasn't any scum. it just pings me to see people working under the assumption that there was definitely 100% scum there. as if they know that for a fact.

VOTE: Black Ranger

Now THIS is how scum (who knew both scum were on the wagon) acts. I mean, if it was a double bus then it was done precisely for this reason. What doesn't make sense is for one of the 2 scums to suggest lynching on the wagon still

[Almost50]

VOTE: Wake88

Can we just lynch this?

I'm assuming the lack of response is a no?

i mean, it's hard to get excited about a lurkeer lynch. is there stuff he said that you thought was actually scummy?

Also this hints it was NAHDIA's idea that wake should not be lynched/killed.

[Almost50]

Wake, all you do is talk about how you are observing. But i’m not seeing you actually do anything at all.

THIS on the other hand was Norwee warming up to vote wake. In fact, Norwee only TR'd the slot AFTER I replaced in (and provided reads, analysis and appeared to be much more active).

[Almost50]

Because we haven’t had a lynch in forever and that’s boring. Is my guess.
How about we just vote here, i fail to see how this slot is going to be readable if this keeps up.
VOTE: Wake88

And here he does vote wake. Now if you -Titus- believe it could have been a double bus on Drew then scum would have decided on where they want to go next, and it looks like Norwee and Nahdia didn't agree at all on D2, but Nahdia and Puppy did and LL carried it out.

[Almost50]

Disclaimer: Can only ISO 3 at a time, so no Puppy/LL at this go. I am doing the two flipped Scum vs Nor

[Almost50]

FOS on Fenraiser wagon. There was no reason to have that slot lynched so early, it was also hammered without even letting them speak for themselves or claim.
Nice catchup by A50, i feel a lot better about that slot now.

Fenraiser

(6) - fwogcarf,

Titus

, SirCakez,

Black Ranger

, LuckyLuciano, Dr Easy Bake [L-0]

It was probably easier for scum to jump on when Titus gave a tacit seal of approval with their vote.
My main guesses for scum on this wagon right now will be between Cakez, LL and DEB.

Another point in Norwee's favour. He is shading DEB (along with 2 others) here. Why do that to someone who is likely to just slip under everyone's radar for long bc that's how he generally plays all the time?

Btw, DEB is a sheep when he is Scum. (Here's a good defence point for you LL, since DEB was sheeping me on D3)

[Almost50]

Eh, I’m not liking Luciano’s attitude. Salty because they can’t get their win as easily since everyone is falling off. 100% with Daddy on this one.
VOTE: Luciano

Although this doesn't look like something DEB would do to a partner. I need to check at how likely was a Luciano wagon to take off at the time, but AFAIR I think manatee was looking like it was finalized and DEB just hammered.

[Almost50]

Nor is playing care-free, which I think is town indicative of him. I'd take this with a frain of salt though as he is good as scum too.

What are you basing this read on?

I don't remember where exactly I go this,

Yeah, you’ve never played against scum!me. So idk either.

Why does scum!Nor go down this route at all?

[Almost50]

Nahdia's slot is still scum, adding onto the lack of content dr easy bake has provided

Scum-scum or SK-scum?

Weird question from a buddy who know DEB is his p AND wants to vote off the SK as a priority.

More to it: I would imagine Norwee would have gone something like "DEB could be scum, but if he is then it's likely MAfia and not SK, and I want to eliminate the SK". Problem solved.

[Almost50]

OK.. enough of that. Now you -Titus- try to convince me Norwee is the last mafia (or that LL can't be it). One of the two will suffice, but both would be even better (although I know you probably don't have the time/energy)

[Almost50]

Because I still

chose

to replace back in.

Let's talk this out with sense: I personally do NOT replace out even if it looks like my team is going down. That is called RESPECT. Respect to the mod, to your fellow players (all of them) and to yourself. After all it's only a game.

Now you established that you replaced out for IRL reasons, which is very much acceptable. That -also- means you would NOT have replaced out if you didn't get sick. Correct? You wanted to PLAY the game (whether you win or lose is irrelevant because alignments are randomized and there's always one side that wins and one that loses). You saw the slot was available again and you were getting better IRL so you wanted back into the game you had originally intended to play.

That's NOT AI. That is RESPECTABLE.

[Almost50]

@LL: By your logic, neither I nor Norwee could be scum either. We both replaced into slots that were occupied by known lurkers, and thus were at a disadvantage regardless of alignments.

[Almost50]

Hmm. This was unexpected. I’d expect A50 to be the kill assuming scum!LL. I’m goong to have to read over the game again. Nobody place any votes yet please.

No, it's easy. The only reason Titus was not attacked before is Scum were hunting for the SK, and SK "probably" hunting for scum too. Now that SK is gone, the logical thing is to shoot the conf!Townie. (Not best play though, I agree)

[Almost50]

Also Nahdia's definitely Town. This game is easy (well, easy to scum hunt for the main team at least. If there's a SK -as was indicated by the two NKs on N1- then I am at a loss of who that might be, but still those I called TOWN already are not it.)

What were your reasons for TR’ing Nahdia here?

No, No no no no no. I refuse -in principle- to do double-work by going back to see hwere exactly I said that and why. YOU do it. I believe my catch up was linked to where I was reading and even had quotes and references whenever possible, so you can just see what page I was on at the time and go see what Nahdia had done there.

But IF it helps, I believe that THIS GAME was still ongoing, and I was scum in it. Nahdia was town in that game, and I was comparing her tone (which I'm not very good at tone reading), so factor that in if you will

[Almost50]

You know what I'm thinking? I'm thinking of No Elimination. Scum can shoot each other or can shoot town. If they both shoot town though they make the last townie as a kingmaker. If only one of then shoot town and the other shoots the opposing scum we're in a 2v1 Elo. If they both shoot each other we win.

This was quite dumb though.

This is what LL was using (among other things) to accuse me of being the SK. Now that the SK has been caught, reread and tell me if it makes sense for it to come from the last MAFIA (knowing the SK has been BP too, but assuming I was 50-50 on that part).

Put another way, assume that I am the last Mafioso here. I "suspect" the SK might be BP. I also -obviously- didn't know it it was LL or fwog/JV at the time. Do you think I would suggest the Elo and risk being shot myself or would I be actively looking for the SK to eliminate by day? You work it out.

[Almost50]

Actually, you know what? My lynch doesn't hurt the town that much. It just brings the 2-1-1 situation right now, and whichever of you doesn't kill the other loses. The only difference is you can both agree to share the win (which would be lame tbh).

So, let me help you there:

VOTE: A50

Oh and a self-vote too. A50, why do you do this? *facepalm*

because I didn't care if I went down at that point. Scum had to aim for Scum still. IT MADE NO MAJOR DIFFERENCE.

[Almost50]

But wouldn't LL want to kill you and capitalize on Titus scumreading me. According to yourself?

I sincerely hoped he did. That's why I said it wasn't the best move (to kill Titus).

But -to be completely transparent, and considering Titus is already shot- I had a personal (maybe even selfish) motive there too. I wanted to be the NK because it was TITUS' game to win or lose. She started this game. I didn't. I don't even count games I replace into towards my stats (and I reset the stats anyway and am counting from the start of 2020), so I thought her deciding the game would be best. Now I get all the blame if this goes wrong due to me liking you more than LL.

P.S. I think I saw you both cross voting. LL voted you first, and that's one more reason I don't like his play. YOU DO NOT PLACE A VOTE IN ELO UNLESS YOU KNOW IT'S ON SCUM. Now I've got to wait and see why he decided I was 100% Town when he had been most sus of me all of yesterday.

[Almost50]

Are you still standing by your LL scumread?

It's not even just a "scumread|". It's "who is playing a better game IF they were scum". I mean, OK.. I know I should be outright hunting the last Mafioso here, but how LL is/has been playing doesn't make me think he is town at all.

[Almost50]

I suggest A50 hammers you and town wins.

You know, if I was Mafia here I'd have made you look like a fool. Then again, you KNOW that would be the case, so the only way you do that (vote first, without a discussion and without a case) is if you know that vote does NOT win the town the game. In other words, you cannot lose "because" you voted so hastily, because you know neither of the two other is Mafia.. if that makes any sense to you.

Let me retry: Let's assume you are Town. The Town thinks X is scum (even by 99%) and would still consider that 1% possibility that Y is scum. Town does NOT vote X before they've at least provided a case on why they think it's X and not Y because if that 1% is true they instantly lose.

[Almost50]

@A50, I can lay out why I voted EE if you want, but it's always EE so w/e.

I would like to see that still. It could be beneficial. Plus I promised Titus to reconsider Nowee, and I am a man of my word. I make no promises that your case would change my view, but let's hear it anyway.

[Almost50]

A50, do you think my crumbs believing you were doctor tracing all the way back to D2 were fake? If they are legitimate, then there's no reason for you to have lived as long as you did.

If I was Mafia and I knew there was a Doctor and I assumed they'd be on the IC all the time, it would have been suboptimal for me to shoot them before I got rid of the SK. Even by day (the elimination) it would always be better for me to land it on someone else who just might be the SK instead.

So, I am leaning towards you actually believing I was Doc. It makes sense for Scum!you to defend me by day (towncred) and avoid shooting me at night (hunting for the SK)

[Almost50]

It's less about you being town and more about Norwegian being scum. The NK is the only viable option for Norwegian. Titus was scum on him. I was willing to vote either way. You were leaning towards voting me. If you die, I obviously never vote the IC and then Norwegian loses. If I die, you and Titus vote Norwegian.

Are you trying to use the WIFOM I created against me?

Nor could have killed you and used the same logic to convince Titus to vote me. Titus has a natural tendency to suspect me regardless, and Nor knows it (I think), but anyway.. that's pure WIFOM. The essence of WIFOM.

[Almost50]

I revisited the wagons overnight and it makes sense for Drew to be double bussed given that Norwegian was on early and Nahdia made the mistake of lingering around so she was forced into hammering or looking scummy AF for refusing to.

That part in particular threw me off. I didn't understand why Nahdia needed to be online at this precise time. It may have had to do with that other game I linked, maybe.. but I still think she could have avoided this thread, and especially so if he partner was already on the wagon (thus lynching off the wagon was fine still).

The interesting part is that your slot didn't join that wagon, and -even more interesting- both NKs were on the wagon.

The next night Umlaut (also on the wagon) was shot. Someone was hunting for the SK. If Nahdia had jumped on the wagon knowing her p was also on then it must have been to limit the pool for them to hunt for the SK, but that is certainly not a good reason to hammer your p with as little time left of the day.

[Almost50]

Norwegian is being careful not to upset either of us while also trying to direct both of us towards each other with his questions.

I don't think he was trying not to upset you with those:

Umlaut: how pure is this wagon?

ManateeDude (6) -

bob3141

, Umlaut,

Titus

, Nahdia, SirCakez,

osuka

[L-2]

Personally I'd go for all-town (or -at leat- Mafia-free)

Oh shit.

Well other than THAT, i think A50's ISO is relatively townie and i stand by what i've said regarding him earlier.

And THAT is one reason why I prefer Nor to win if he is not Town. He's playing the correct way (from my own PoV). JV/LL coming at me is really bad play. They should have -at least- considered each other, which they didn't. (JV for no real reason, and LL because he's trying to twist everything into a narrative that fits his agenda and is often retracting when it's made obvious he is going astray)

Yeah this points to scum!LL though.

Are you still standing by your LL scumread?

Then the next thing I see was you voting him.

[Almost50]

(3) Titus is the only NK that allows Norwegian to win. If I die, you and Titus vote Norwegian. If you die, Titus and I vote Norwegian.

I still wouldn't bank on Titus auto-voting Norwee, but OK.

The thing is, he opened the day with caution, which the correct attitude from EITHER alignment. You jumped in with a vote off the gate which is never a town move. Like, forget everything else.. let's talk about how you both entered the game TODAY. Look me in the eye, and tell me honestly that if I had voted Norwee off the game you would have still been confident it's him and not me because Titus was the NK.

Like, why didn't you consider >I< could have killed Titus with as much confidence that Norwee would side by me?

The problem with your arguments (yesterday and today) is that they are always subject to the narrative you want to provide. They do not consider "both sides".

Like, OK. I am the Scum. I killed Titus and I was confident Norwee would never vote me over you. Now kindly prove to me that this is not the case )without using the fact I didn't hammer yet, because you couldn't have known I wouldn't hammer when you voted Norwee)

[Almost50]

(a) If you NK Titus, you lose since, as Norwegian loves to point out, I was leaning you yesterday. If you Norwegian, you risk losing depending on how Titus sways. If you NK me, you just win. This is both the best NK for Norwegian and the worst NK for you. If I'm mafia, I'm NKing A50 and winning by voting Norwegian with Titus.

Not true. Not true at all. My best kill would have always been the IC. The confirmed Townie. Like, I know Norwee would side by me. I also could have killed him and faced you and I never would have lost it despite Titus' natural paranoia of me. I could have killed you and had Titus side by me against Norwee, but that would actually have been the worst option because I benefited nothing from it (it's about what you gain from the LIVING players, and if I had killed you Norwee would know I am the Mafia, so I lost an ally in the process).

You know what would have been really cool? NO KILL. Yep. Make it a 4-way MyLo (what's the new term for that now??) so you would have needed all 3 townies on you. Assuming Titus would still go for Norwee, he thinks it's you, and you go after me, I would trust that she can convince you to vote him, or I could convince her to vote you. THAT would have been MY play.

[Almost50]

Norwegian earlier said that I can't be scum if I actually thought you were doc.

No he didn't. He said you can't be SK, and you even asked him why it didn't apply to you being Mafia. Show me where he responded to that question by acknowledging it did apply to Mafia too. (Then again, even if he did, I don't concur and I already explained why)

[Almost50]

I don't think scum!A50 is as openly hostile towards other players, suicidal, and just a plan asshole. Part of winning is making people like you. You tried your darnedest to make sure that wouldn't happen.

But you were convinced it was me yesterday, and for exactly those same reasons!

[Almost50]

Has Norwegian played with you and Titus at the same time before?

Not sure. I can't remember.

[Almost50]

Time for the good old LYLO paranoia to set in. I would most likely vote LL here, but i can’t completely deny the possibility of A50 having tried to pocket me either.

"Hey guys, I'm going to keep my options open and proceed to shade both players and try to instigate both players to shade each other."

You also use big words more often. I don't see "shade" here. The guys is stating facts, he only has two options, and he's leaning one way over the other. That's it.

[Almost50]

Was my slot online during EoD?

I dunno. I wasn't even in the game yet. It was the right play for SCUM though NOT to be online then (or to be online under another alt.. watching silently)

[Almost50]

Hey A50, remember that analysis you thought I was too new to make? That based on wagon dynamics one of Cakez / Nahdia had to be scum? Now that you know that I'm not too new to mafia to be able to make that sort of claim, do you really think I set up that analysis and continually asked people for their opinions on it if Nahdia was my last partner?

Yeah, and I also remember you wanted to abandon the game.

I also quick ISO'd you and came up with some intersting quotes:

I'd rather lynch between slots that can be either SK or Mafia. That rules out Fwog today (SK Only), and make me hesitant on Manatee (D1 wagon dynamics make me think he's likely not mafia). I'm most willing to lynch between {A50, Cakez, DEB}.

DEB is in your 3-players pool. 1 in 3 rule applies/

@LuckyLuciano

Who is the SK if it's not you LuckyLuciano?

My current guess on gamesolve is scum is {Cakez, Norwegian} and SK is between {Fwog, Bake, Manatee}. I think Manatee is ruled out from mafia based on the D1 wagons. I think Fwog is ruled out based on my inference of Ranger's N1 investigation. Baked could be swapped with Cakez between the two pools, but I don't think that makes much of a difference. I've held 1 of {Cakez, Nahdia} to be mafia all game.

You put DEB on the SK pool, but you wanted to eliminate those who could be Mafia or SK

EE probably falls within the group that could be either mafia or SK. I'm still sold on one of Cakez / DEB being mafia, and A50 doesn't feel town to me, so I prefer looking in the direction of those three. I'd probably compromise on an EE vote, but I feel like I'm only saying that because I'm ready for this game to be over.

So now you are back to DEB being Mafia, but would compromise on Norwee as well..

The flips pretty much confirm A50 as the final mafia. If he's town, then mafia chose to double bus Drew over eliminating Manatee, who we now know is town, D1. It also explains why Nahdia's WIM drastically dropped after the Drew elimination. She was playing the game solo. I don't think she'd be so demotivated if the two main wagons {Wake, Cakez}, were both town. Instead she had a wagon on her teammate, and a wagon on town that was painted such that if he's town, she's gotta be scum.

So who is SK between Fwog (JV) and Norwegian? I'm going to look back into Cakez's case against Norwegian in a bit.

And then I was confirmed Mafia via flips. You even said it yourself: It's unlikely Mafia chose to double bus Drew over eliminating Manatee. But this is exactly what you say happened if you think Norwee is the last Scum.

Like, your thought are all over the place, you're throwing shit on the fan and letting it distribute it equally on almost everyone. You're saying one thing and the exact opposite at the same time. You're trying to justify what you are pushing/selling at any given time without looking back at what you had said earlier or considering what you would do next. In short, you live in the moment.

[Almost50]

OK... for better or worse, I think it's time to end the game.

VOTE: LL

GGA, and well played Norwee, no matter what your true alignment is.

@Titus: If I'm wrong I am wrong. You saw how it went. I don't think YOU would have approved of that baked vote on Norwee without any discussion or case. (You in my place, as in you NOT being the IC)

P-edit: It's all over now. You can say all you want in the post-game discussion.

O-edit 2: THAT'S IT. NO TOWNIE WOULD EVER BRING UP A SELF-HAMMER IN ELO. Also the hyper posting is a sign of nervousness and despair. That's the last nail in your coffin (although I was apparently decided already)

[Almost50]

Honestly, if the cards were shown to me just before I voted I wouldn't have changed my mind. This was a horrible shit fest. my man. This is page 1 of "How to lose a game in Elo"

[Almost50]

GG A50.
That scum was soooo annoying.

Now come clean and don't troll me. Was it him or was it you?

[Almost50]

Oh, well. Titus is gonna be on my case with a box of "I told you so", but -in my defence- I asked her to make a case during that loooong twilight and she procrastinated.

@LL: All you had to do was HOLD YOUR VOTE AND PRESENT YOUR CASE. You had a 50-50 chance with that. I would have wondered why you suddenly decided to go after Norwee and not me, and would have considered your case more. Voting off the bat (and NAKED voting, mind you) doesn't help AT ALL. It's never the town move in ELo, unless like,, you're a Cop with a guilty (and then you would have to announce it so it still won't be a naked vote).

Anyway, at least now I have some meta on you. If we meet again I shall certainly consider what happened in this game as a reference.

[Almost50]

On the downside. A50 is probably never going to trust me again.

It was never about you. It was LL's play. His naked vote in particular. I mean, I was weighing my options while you were posting and he was not, and I was like "this is all NAI", so he did have a 50-50 chance, but as soon as I saw that vote it looked all over to me. I couldn't get to convince myself a townie would do that without an explanation.

[Almost50]

Well, at least I wasn't too off base. I had you, LL, Manatee and fwog as my lynch pool as I stepped in. It turns out I had 2 out of 3 living anti-town players.

@Norwee: Why did you bus Drew there? What is your role?

[Almost50]

On another note, who is your Norwegian "Footballer of All Time"? Like, the best player EVER. To me I think I'd pick John Arne Riise, but I wouldn't discount Solskaer (however you spell it) or Tore Andre Flo (and I haven't seen Haland yet, so I am not considering him)

[Almost50]

The game isn't over until the moderator announces it.

Exactly! And he told me he will make an exception for me if I decided to vote you instead.

VOTE: Norwee

See? This was me setting you up to confess. I work with the FBI and they have it all on tape now. You're looking at a looooong time in jail, Maybe 2 back-to-back life sentences.

[Almost50]

I already said I don't count games I replace into. (And what perfect record are you talking about? it's just ONE win)

[Almost50]

True, but the smallest sample in statistics is 3.

[Almost50]

Generally speaking it is always preferable to have a sample size of 100 or more. If you are running a test -for example- you need to have as many subjects as possible to run the test on, to give you a more accurate result.

However, I am an civil engineer, and running 100 tests on 100 concrete cubes for instance is too much. I want to know what the bearing capacity of the mix is (or the bearoing capacity of a certaij soil sample.. etc). One result isn't at all reliable (I could just have had a gravel in the mix that made it look like that cube can hold up to 500 KGs/sq cm when in fact it is only 220 KGs/sq cm). Two tests on 2 cubes in this case will give me 2 contradicting results (one says 500 and the other says 200 and I can't tell which is more accurate). Now THREE is the minimum for me. If I get 500, 200, 220 then I know the 500 is the odd result to be excluded and my average bearing capacity is 210 (200+220 divided by 2). If I however get something like 200, 220, 210 then I know all three are consistent with each other and my average is (220+200+210)/3 = 210.

So, one result can't be relied on AT ALL (it could be misleading) and 2 will be dubious if not consistent with each other (because you can'r decide which one is the correct one), and that makes 3 tests the minimum acceptable number. Still, nore tests is better and we usually make 5-7 whenever possible just to be absolutely sure (so if one is way off and thus excluded you still have 4-6 results to base your final result on)

[Almost50]

But that's only for recurring results. You don't pick 3 random people and ask them what their jobs are and then decide to publish the result based on that. The minimum doe THAT kind of survey is 100 persons (unless you're in a town with less than 100 inhabitants in which case you are not publishing estimations but rather actual accurate data)