NY 178: MASQUERADE -- GAME OVER
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Pine In Your Head
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In post 5553, Thor665 wrote:That is L-3 on Pine.
Haven't caught up yet, gimme a day"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
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In post 5557, Thor665 wrote:What are your thoughts thus far?
Have you looked at the flipped scum yet?
Only in a cursory manner. When I get home I plan to read their ISOs and do a full vote analysis on them"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
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In post 5620, DrippingGoofball wrote:What is the case on Josh/Pine? The putting off the game by Pine is really scummy.
It's a 200-plus-page game. I'm procrastinating reeeeally hard, and every deadline extension is only making that urge worse. Lemme get through the next couple of days of family shite and I'll be more active
I've been watching what's going on lately, though. Trying to view this as an outsider, but everyone's so entrenched it's hard to read anything decent."Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
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In post 5635, DrippingGoofball wrote:I paid attention to my role PM, and I'm reading the game real-time.
This was kind of my attitude, Thor, and generally my SOP for replacing.
There's less utility in reading a backlog than you think. By now, people have entrenched opinions. Scum can often be secure in a Townread, Town can often be screwed due to confirmation bias. The replacement's role is to look at things with new eyes, and that isn't helped if I rehash the old disputes and draw similar conclusions
So I'm holding off on going archive diving."Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
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In post 5639, DrippingGoofball wrote:I like Pine, there is a hypnotic, mellifluous quality to his posts. I need much more to judge.
Flubber seems legit.
Do we have a claim summary?
Flatterer
Thor, asking people for their opinions lets me know what the established lines are without contaminating my thought process with the backstory that caused them to get there. It also pushes people to commit to a read.
At no point have I said I plan to do a full reread. The only people I'm even going to read in any detail are flipped scum, and I've had about four hours of sleep in the last three days. It's not happening until tomorrow at least"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
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In post 5656, Nero Cain wrote:nice IIOA
Attempt to discredit solid analysis before it's finished. Solid scum move"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
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In post 5693, Pine wrote:I like it when DGB is Town
Never mind, it's multi ball. She could just be scumhunting the other side. Close enough for me to be happy, though"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
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I'm not yet on board about Flubbernugget, and TSO isn't playing the scumgame I've seen from him recently (just finished a game where he was scum). I can see NC and Thor scum though, they've been obstructive and have sought to discredit fresh perspectives"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
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The only viable wagons seem to be Flubber, DGB, and myself. DGB's been super Town since she replaced in, and I'm. It voting for myself or just letting a no lynch happen.
Someone please restate the Flubbernugget case. Concisely, please.
Flubber, this is intent to hammer. Please claim and/or convince me why I shouldn't hammer you"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
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Hey guy, how about not being a dick
I missed the question, and that's not actually a case
As for the question, you are making an assertion on my opinion. I stated that I feel you've been obstructive and discrediting to the replacements, and I stand by it. You've done everything in your power to undercut the validity of what we've said, and made every effort to paint what we do, even quietness, as scummy. I think it's because you're afraid of new opinions and fresh perspectives, which is scummy, as I've said before. I'd be pushing your lynch right now, but this late in the day it's not going to happen"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
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I'm not going quote-trolling at this stage of the day.
Your case is weak and far from comprehensive. Your case amounts to "didn't analyze which kind of scum." That's not a case
Very seriously considering this to be a scum vs scum interaction."Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
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It's not cogdis
We have 14 hours to deadline when there aren't plurality lynches. No lynching is very anti-Town, especially in multiball
In other words, I'm prepared to hammer, but I want to feel good about it
This interaction with Thorscum convinces me that HE thinks Flubber is scum, and is trying to pull together a case. I'm guessing he spotted something in Flubber that he can't really say, because it would be giving himself away in doing so. So he puts together a case made out of spare parts"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
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In post 5870, DrippingGoofball wrote:In post 5864, Pine wrote:I think it's because you're afraid of new opinions and fresh perspectives
Still waiting for yours...
I'll get there when I get there
In post 5871, DrippingGoofball wrote:I think both Pine and Flubber are in fact scum.
Nope"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
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Vote Flubbernugget
@Thor: Consider - I think you're scum. You appear to be putting together a cobbled-together, last-minute case on Flubber. I don't think you'd be doing so against someone you think is Town, too risky. Therefore, I'm guessing you have some kind of inside information. Scum in multiball often have a much clearer idea of who their opponents are than Town does"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
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Actually, more than likely you picked up a lie that town wouldn't notice.
For example, scum in multiball can often see stuff that Town doesn't - a team with a tracker or watcher can spot opponent scum claiming VT when they were known to have gone somewhere on a previous night. Scum can suspect SK based on a failed kill. All kinds of stuff.
It's the timing and awkwardness of the attack on Flubber that makes me think it's scum vs scum"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
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In post 5910, DrippingGoofball wrote:In post 5909, Nero Cain wrote:Will Ren get banned for posting while he's dead. PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!
50 coconuts!
51 coconuts
Higher without going over"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
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In post 5948, Thor665 wrote:We obviously have no SK at this stage with DGB's flip - and you remain scum, the question is what type of scum.
You should actually claim Mafia even if you are a Wolf, because town and Mafia want to kill Wolves right now - I would sheep a claimed Mafia player today. Are you Mafia? If so I will help defend you, but otherwise you look ungawdly scummy and need rope.
Vote Thor"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
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Oh nvm
There's a lot fewer people left than I thought
Hey, looks like TSO is not-Wolf
2 out of {Thor, Slandaar, Nero Cain, Boonskies}
I'm pretty confident in Thor!Wolf. The more he hollers about Scripten the more I'm sure he's annoyed that whatever scum theatre they did didn't work. The bit with Flubber and his concerted efforts to silence and discredit the replacements clinches it
Need to sort associatives between Scripten, Thor, and the remaining three
PE: I did the math myself but got carried away with other thoughts. Already claimed VT"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
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In post 6006, Boonskiies wrote:[4]Pine: Thor665,Shiro, DrippingGoofball, AxleGreaser
[2]Flubbernugget: Nero Cain, T S O
Unfortunate how all three of these people just happened to die last night, and that Thor now doesn't suspect Pine at all.
In post 6007, Boonskiies wrote:Guess what? All 3 of those players were town also!! We wouldn't have switched to Flubber so easily if Pine wasn't a scum slot.
This is what I'm responding to. Town wouldn't make a case like this"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
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I'm not squirming, I'm refuting. One of your central points is extremely falsifiable. If anyone's squirming, it's you transforming from a quiet lurker into an over active burst of energy when your team gets called out
And I'm not calling you scum for your terrible case, I called you scum before that"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
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In post 5985, Pine wrote:Votes without reasons in LYLO, vote is on his expressed suspect that is less likely to be lynched
Bus buddy, vote Townie
I didn't suddenly shift gears at your case, I noticed your efforts to bus your buddy, but vote someone else entirely. Your case was tailored to your vote, not the other way around
My guess? You picked out who you perceived as the easiest target and fabricated a case around that selection"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
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In post 6052, Boonskiies wrote:there was no reason for the Pine wagon to go from mafia pine to mafia flubber. It was a counterwagon. Flubber was a different alignment. Pine and Flubber are not the same alignment. Pine is a wolf.
This is bullshit. You're suggesting that it was a counter wagon driven by my buddy, when the most I can have is one of those. One person does not a wagon make
Further, your case presupposes that Thor, the leader of the Flubber wagon, was the one doing that, all while attacking and being attacked by me
If you're so certain of Thor that you're using that deduction as astarting pointfor your case on me, you should logically be voting him first, especially given that there's significant support for him
No
You mouthed bussing of your buddy, and selected an entirely differenttargetfor your mislynch
Also, I'm not Mafia"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
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FUCK FUCK FUCK
That's the second goddamn time I've lost this post. Spent almost an hour on it, then lost battery. Plugged it in, started typing, moved to a different chair, forgot to plug it back in, lost ANOTHER ten minutes.
Here's the TL;DR version
We lose if we kill Mafia today because we cannot win without at LEAST one crosskill. This doesn't mean Mafia should out themselves, it'd be anti-wincon because they'd get NKed. Even a no lynch requires at least one crosskill, because if both target Townies, 2:1:1 Wolf win. Best chance in half an hour of running outcomes is a Wolf lynch, because then we go to 1:3:1. This is especially true because Wolves still have PRs. That could easily fuck up our chances in the crosskill game. I have a lot more thoughts on this, but it's 3 AM, I have work in the morning, and have already typed it twice.
So, to answer your question, Nero, I had initially written a snarky bit about how looking for three suspects when there's only two wolves was dumb, but eliminating possible Mafia as lynchees is important too
So, Wolves. Unlikely to be TSO, that warning about LYLO at day start didn't sound like a Wolf about to win. So two wolves in {Thor, Slandaar, Boon, Nero Cain}. I have a preexisting scumread on Thor due to his antagonism towards the replacements, his eagerness with the Flubber lynch, and his constant worry that the scum theatre between him and Scripten isn't working. He can't be Mafia (leaping onto Flubber like that proves it) so he's Wolf. 5948, where he tries to draw out his remaining opponent, clinches it. That leaves his partner.
I've recently made my case on Boonskies as the other wolf, it needn't be repeated in detail so soon. The key piece is that he clearly selected a target,thenmade his case, instead of the other way around. He also pulled the classic bus-buddy/vote-Townie trick, and the cog-dis of his case further convinces me
Let's examine other possibilities anyway. I've had a pretty reasonable Townread on Nero Cain since the start, despite a hiccup at 5656. He might be a low-and-slow Mafia, but I'm getting a kind of frenetic vibe from him that fits with a smart Townie in a game that might boil down to kingmaker even if he plays all of his cards right. Slandaar's always been hard to read for me, since our first encounter in Rolling in the Deep. His reads are all over the map, BUT have a great deal of reasoning behind them.
In my opinion, Mafia is probably between TSO (who I'm holding off a deeper analysis of b/c today's focus is wolves) and Slandaar. {Thor, Boon, Slandaar, TSO, NC}. Thor and Boon are Wolves, NC is Town, Slandaar is scumhunting, TSO is hard to read. Gun to my head, I'd say Slandaar Mafia. He stayed away from that Flubber wagon like it was poison
Best guess?
Thor+Boon Wolves
Slandaar Mafia
NC, TSO, Pine Town
Thor's my choice for today"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
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In post 6069, Nero Cain wrote:In post 6067, T S O wrote:Scripten was voting for Cho, Thor and Josh B and Ren's slot has voted for TSO, Cho, and Thor. Flubber has voted Thor and Boon.
so both teams voted him. I cleared Shiro for the same reasoning and that worked out fine.
This is weak. It wholly discounts the notion of bussing. People do it"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
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Translation: I picked the wrong target to fabricate a huge bullshit case on, better pick a different one. I know! Let's redirect to the more likely Mafia!"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
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I think that you're Mafia zeroing in on the one you can't crosskill, and I can respect that. From a Mafia perspective, their only vague chance is to lynch Wolf, crosskill Wolf, not get shot
Hell, I can support that. Just shoot Thor, mmkay?
Also, I continue to lol at the fact that Thor's only real defense is "I wouldn't do that, would I?" Yes, of course you would. Especially if you thought it would make you look like you weren't partners. Good God, WIFOM much?"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
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In post 6089, Slandaar wrote:In post 6087, Thor665 wrote:I think he's probably not BP.
It's quite risky to claim BP into a full game when it's a fairly common role and can be CC'ed safely.
No?
More importantly, there's really quite little to gain from fake claiming it. It's probably true
Slandaar, I'm Mafia-reading you mostly by PoE, some gut. Between you and TSO, you're more likely
Thor, any argument based on "Would I do this" is definitionally WIFOM."Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
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There's a big difference. I don't care about the Reinoe lynch, that could have been bussing, but bussing Flubber when you're one phase from LYLO when you have another viable victim and no compelling reason to change is WAY different from saying "I wouldn't buddy a scum partner days ago"
Trying to conflate the two is just not plausible"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
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Asshat claim, let's get it to fuck off"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
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In post 6131, Slandaar wrote:In post 6128, Pine wrote:
No
Thor and Boon are our Wolves, we need to lynch Boon so Thor has a chance of being crosskilled
I agree.
Pinesy, I am not mafia. With this new information who is?
Probably TSO. As previously stated, scum is narrowed down in my mind to 3 of {Thor, Boon, TSO, Slandaar}. Remember, we've got 3 scum out of six people, so fully half of everyone is scum. I can eliminate myself, Townread Nero, and then we've got a scum-rich pool
Thor and Boon's actions and attacks are way too coordinated to not be buddies. That makes them wolves.
{TSO, Slandaar} = 1 Mafia"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
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Bullshit. It's not really LYLO. Wolves are playing it safe to try and avoid being NKed. Lynch me, and they only win ifneitherof them gets NKed
Still Thor and Boon. Now that the connections between them have them pointed out, they're distancing."Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
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