No it isn't. The fact that I explained why and MariaR just ignored that and continued harping on it like it was a silver bullet showed me she just wanted something she could sell, and wasn't interested in trying to read me.In post 2328, goodmorning wrote:if you don't think that post is a pretty good point then you probably don't belong on that council yourself
Mini Normal 1843 - Endgame
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What is there to not find convincing?In post 2332, goodmorning wrote:I didn't find your explanation at all convincing and I certainly don't get how you thought it was going to change Maria's mind.
MariaR claimed that I was treating Cloud and Sotty7 differently. I pointed out that I wasn't. I did look at other options besides Sotty7 D2 and finally came back to her as the best lynch. I unvoted Cloud to look at other options today and kept him on the backburner to weigh alongside everything else.
If MariaR was town, I expected her to realize that she was comparing what I did at the end of one day to the beginning of another.
What I think actually happened is that a couple of people were receptive to that argument so she is hammering it home because she thinks it resonates.-
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@GM, how did you forget about your Rask scumread from yesterday? The one you suddenly voted for when it looked like he could be lynched and now you are back to "Rask is conf-biasing."
You voted a lot of people that are flipped town or that I think are town or that I know to be town (Victor, IAI, Hoopla, Creature, me), but despite having Sotty7 as a supposed scumread, your vote was never seen there. Why? D1, you said you'd join the Sotty7 wagon. Why didn't that ever happen?-
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No, I'm starting to wonder if you and Victor were right and GM's been screwing with me for a very long time.In post 2338, Raskolnikov wrote:Is the hopelessness of the situation making you turn to wifom?-
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You won't last until two days before the deadline if I can help it. And no, hammering you will not be considered a scumclaim. Claim in your next post please.In post 2342, CloudKicker wrote:I am not claiming ever even with intent until its 2 days before the deadline. Hammering me here should be considered a full scumclaim and this wont change, i wont claim because theres a very fine reason that i dont want to, its better for town if i dont-
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How did Rask obvtown? You said nothing about it in the post you quoted.In post 2343, goodmorning wrote:Because Rask obvTowned, as I pointed out here:
Not liking a wagon just seems like an excuse to not vote Sotty7. You haven't liked any wagon that had cropped up.-
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Look, here's the deal. I'm not even very confident that you are scum. If you are town, I just want you to claim so I can assess it and move on to actual scum.
What you are doing is incredibly anti-town. My vote isn't going away until you claim. Unvoting you at this point would be very, very poor play. This is the ideal scenario you are envisioning:
You get run up to L-1 and multiple people ask for a claim.
Your response: Nope, not claiming.
Town's response: Oh okay, that's fine then. We're good.
That's not how it works on any forum I've played at. I haven't played on Epic Mafia so I can't speak for how it's done there. Asking you for a claim is not scumtelling.
One thing you need to realize is that we have a limited number of mislynches (three) before we lose. I'm asking you to please not force us to waste one on you. If you are a PR, you should be one of the clears. One of the people we POE out so our lynches are more accurate. Getting lynched is the worst outcome. Claiming is not the end of the world. You've been happy to declare intent on anyone that's at L-1. There is no way you are getting away without claiming. Please claim ASAP.
He has:In post 2366, CloudKicker wrote:Like i said, not claiming yet, if clear wants a hardclaim he has to ask me directly
In post 2309, aronagrundy wrote:anyway, I would also be down for getting cloud to claim.-
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By the way, I think refusing to claim at L-1 with intent is anti-town. I don't think continuing to demand that claim is anti-town.
In fact, I'd argue that you showing up and suggesting that he could be town, implicitly trying to let him off is anti-town. Because by doing that, you are undermining the mechanics through which we get claims. You are essentially creating an environment where the next person we pressure can get out of a lynch by refusing to claim.-
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I don't care what you would have done as scum. Claim now and I'll consider your scumreads. Rask and Hoopla were people that I was looking into as well before you started this distraction. If you are town, either you can claim and we can focus on actual scum or you can waste a day getting lynched and then we focus on scum tomorrow. Your choice.-
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If you want him to full-claim, not following up on that by not hammering isn't going to get you one. You should be hammering right about now.In post 2409, Hoopla wrote:
I mean, it's annoying that he hasn't fully claimed yet, and I still want him to full claim, but getting more annoyed and doing an even more antitown thing in hammering him (or requesting hammers) doesn't achieve anything.In post 2394, BlackVoid wrote:By the way, I think refusing to claim at L-1 with intent is anti-town. I don't think continuing to demand that claim is anti-town.
In fact, I'd argue that you showing up and suggesting that he could be town, implicitly trying to let him off is anti-town. Because by doing that, you are undermining the mechanics through which we get claims. You are essentially creating an environment where the next person we pressure can get out of a lynch by refusing to claim.
The irony of the situation is him doing this has revealed (in my eyes) that he's actually prob-town, and thus despite the act of doing an antitown thing, he has probably provided a net positive to the town. I don't like the way it has come about, and don't want him to keep stalling, but it has happened. You're letting your ire of the situation overlook the silver lining here and seeing the town tell for what it is.-
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My read is that either he's scum and stalling, or he's town and you are trying to frustrate me by not getting his claim in an expedient fashion so that I keep pushing him harder and harder until I finally get a town lynched after putting in way too much effort.
If you are town here, you'd be trying to make the process simpler, not throw additional wrenches into the mix.-
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You are being very anti-town right now. Heliterallysaid that if there was actual intent, he would claim. All you had to do was confirm that you had actual intent and we would have moved on but then you decided to "change your mind" and actually consider letting him get off without claiming at all.
Now you are creating even more of a distraction from the main issue by claiming I'm being anti-town as well.-
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Only if you claim in your next post.In post 2439, CloudKicker wrote:
Will you claim if i claim ? and if so, its almost like massclaiming at this pointIn post 2438, BlackVoid wrote:He is a lynch candidate. Nothing has changed. If he doesn't claim, there is nobody else that I'll consider for a lynch.-
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Hoopla has twice undermined the pro-town environment of this game. First she started encouraging this apples/oranges dichotomy. For a functioning town, you need people working together, not divided into their own camps because it makes it harder to get a lynch. Second, she bailed on stating intent to hammer after Cloud said he would claim if she did.
We shouldn't be having a conversation with people at L-1 explaining to them the benefits and pitfalls of claiming. By not making the process pretty much automatic, we created several pages of clutter and nonsense back and forth.-
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You are right that I'm frustrated. I think with his claim, I'll be able to get a much better picture of the gamestate. If his claim is believable, I can continue looking elsewhere without worry about connections to him. I can rest easy knowing that we're not letting a really cheeky scumbag slip away right in front of our noses by being blatantly pro-scum.In post 2460, Hoopla wrote:The original purpose of Cloud claiming was because he was suspicious enough to lynch. I (and I hope others see it too) now realise he's highly likely town, so there's no point continuing the claiming process if there's no intention to lynch there any more.
You're just frustrated (or ignoring) that the way this information came to light was through Cloud's antitown behaviour.
There's also the fact that he revels in trolling. I've genuinely invested myself into the game and put in my time to try to figure out the puzzle. He knows that him being purposefully obstructionist is just frustrating me. He's happy about that.
Even if you think he's more likely town, it would be much nicer if you could just make him claim to get it over with so I can refocus. Just help me out here. You claimed to be townreading me heavily after I derailed your lynch and went for Sotty7. Arona is clear. Jaack is clear and Jaack has been pretty tunneled in on Cloud.-
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It's possible that he's town, yeah. But I also don't want to leave this half-done or just cave because he's trolling and refusing to claim. I'm just confused about why you are acting in a way that would cause more tension and frustration on both sides rather than just state intent again, get his claim, and move on.
Him concealing his role has very limited value and I don't think that value is higher than what we would get if we all have a concrete claim that we can analyze and also a sense a closure so we feel like we actually got something so we can reset and think about it.-
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I suppose if he's fake-claiming, we'll find out when we setup-spec after all the claims are out. By the way, if anyone has a PR, they should be soft cc'ing Cloudkicker right now.
VOTE: goodmorning
I don't feel from the core of my bones that she's scum but she's an option I want to explore. Mostly comes down to too many bad votes and no vote on Sotty7. Still have lingering feelings that town are playing chaotically and Hoopla and Rask are being the voices of reason scum but I'm going to go to Occam's razor for now and assume GM's play is indicative of scum and Rask and Hoopla being reasonable is because they're town. I'll see how this pans out and decide later.
There's one other reason that I'll keep to myself, this is just a reminder for me to bring it up later in case I forget.
@Cloud, first off, it's not going to be lylo if we mislynch today. Secondly, I'm going to consider all the possibilities including that of a roleblock before I make any decisions. Don't worry, I'm not one to risk autoloss.-
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I won't be here most of the day but I feel like doing a thanksgiving matrix to give thanks to this game of mafia. I'm excluding Arona and Cloud for claims. Upon reflection, I buy Cloud's claim and am fairly sure he's town. Excluding Jaack as well. Here are the potential scumteams. I highly doubt anyone outside this Matrix is scum so I think this is fairly comprehensive.
Player Rask MariaR GM Creature Hoopla Rask N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AMariaR ProbableN/AN/AN/AN/AGM EliminateProbableN/AN/AN/ACreature ProbableProbableEliminateN/AN/AHoops ProbableUnlikelyProbableEliminateN/A
Rask could be scum with MariaR, Creature, or Hoopla.
MariaR could be scum with Rask, Creature, or GM.
GM could be scum with MariaR or Hoopla.
Creature could be scum with Rask or MariaR.
Hoopla could be scum with Rask or GM. Perhaps MariaR but unlikely.
So, if I'm to believe Hoopla, she says it's Rask and Creature which I guess isn't impossible.
Rask's POV is the most interesting one. He went from GM + one of Hoopla/MariaR to Hoopla + one of GM/MariaR. Problem is, if we go back to our earlier assessment, Hoopla and MariaR don't make sense as a team either. So, it seems Hoopla/GM is the only plausible team if you are town and right. There is the possibility that you are town and wrong (about GM). That would put MariaR/Creature as the only real scumteam possibility. Since you bring up pre-flip interactions almost as much as I do, let me know your thoughts on MariaR/Creature being a possibility.
Then there's always the Rask/Hoopla possibility where they distance, link each other to other townies on the list and push those townies.
Outside of that, I have a hard time understanding GM's and MafiaR's POV because they both seem to thinkI'mpartnered with Creature.
Finally, I think Creature hasn't been very involved lately and I want to see his POV of the situation.
I'm also interested in Jaack's and Arona's and maybe Cloud's thoughts on the matter. I'm not sure Creature is the way to go partly because all the people in my POE pool seem to be drawn to him. I'd rather build a wagon that me, Jaack, and Arona can get behind.-
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Hey GM:
I have some time now so if you are town here, feel free.In post 117, goodmorning wrote:it's a great chance to talk to someone you think is scummy in real time.-
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Okay, so try as I might I'm just not seeing GM as scum. The wagon has given me the reactions I needed so that's good. Apart from the stuff I mentioned about her back and forth with Sotty7 on D1, there's also the really early interactions where she says something is off with BBT and Sotty7 immediately agrees with her and pushes him. I hate that she cast around for counterwagons at the last minute during Sotty7's lynch but I just don't get the feeling that she already knew Sotty7's alignment.
I'm leaning more towards Rask. Here's my problem with Rask: reading him in ISO, there's never a point where I feel that him and Sotty7 are definitely not partners. He suspects Sotty7 early, cuts through her BBT scumread and votes her. Then he colors a wagon with Sotty7 as his strongest scumread but leaves open room for her being partnered with GreyICE. Then quickly moves over to Victor even though Victor was apparently a townread (a "fringe townread" but a townread nevertheless). The funny thing is, he does everything he can to work with GreyICE to push a counterwagon despite throwing around Sotty7/GreyICE team possibilities. I think he wanted towncred for being against the GreyICE wagon while at the same time leaving him lynchable if Sotty7 flipped. I'll add that Hoopla is right that him saying she wasn't doing anything to "pressure" Sotty7 may indicate a partner tell.
Then D2, he spends most of his time pushing GM. Some of his points are accurate - GM did in fact do nothing when GreyICE was getting lynched and she posts in a way that can be difficult to parse and understand at times. But there's no smoking gun, and no passion in this push. He is quick to switch over to Sotty7 when the counterwagon picks up. If he was so sure GM was scum, I think he'd be resisting the Sotty7 counterwagon but it feels almost like he knows she's scum and is being very, very careful not to look bad from a Sotty7 flip. There was one small place where he said he assumed Sotty7 was a mason that I thought looked like a not-partner tell but I don't think it's beyond him to fake. Hopping onto Sotty7 late D2 with "oh, yeah GM could be a partner" just mirrors his D1 where he pushes Sotty7 as a potential BBT/GreyICE partner.
The final straw for me that sealed it was that a lot of his points are regurgitated from others. For example, Victor was the one who brought up the fact that he was doing more than BBT so GM shouldn't suspect him. He also complained about GM not reading his posts. Rask brings up both these points in his GM push. This is more of a general trend in Rask's posting. There were times when I really liked his posting but many points he brings up are unoriginal and when I read the thread, I realize someone else had made that argument before (one example I'll give is that he came up with a paranoid theory that BBT and Sotty7 were togetherafterI suggested that they could be scum vs scum counterwagons). I've tried to see his POV but I just can't get behind his reads. GM does all the wrong things like voting Rask when scum was about to be lynched but she justdoesn't fitas a Sotty7 partner in the same way Rask does.
VOTE: Raskolnikov-
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