Mini Normal 1843 - Endgame
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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But Michel, if I used dice tags during LYLO or deep in the game, that would be an extreme faux pas. Better to get it out of the way on page 1.In post 11, MichelSableheart wrote:Vote: Hoopla
By using dice tags to determine who you vote, you prove (instead of merely claim) that your vote was made without any intent whatsoever. As such, your posts #5 and #6 are specifically designed not to give town any additional information. Because town needs information on the most important question of the game (who is scum), whereas scum is fully informed on that matter, your posts do not benefit town as much as they should. Why are you intentionally playing in a way that is more beneficial to scum then to town?
I checked the mods ruleset before I did it. I agree dice rolling can be a bit overpowered, though.In post 12, TwoFace wrote:I thought using dice rolling in the thread was not allowed?-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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I owed the universe a favour.In post 23, MichelSableheart wrote:Don't let that withhold you from explaining why you used them in the first place.
ANYWAY
VOTE: goodmorning
...and not because the dice told me to!-
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Hoopla
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In Michel's only game (playing from the start) in the last few years onsite, he drew scum and didn't subject the town to a PSA. He tends to ask a lot of questions early in the game, regardless of alignment, but in non-newbie games the PSA-style declaration has only ever come as town (like here). In his slew of newbie games, pretty much every time he'd talk about how players should be acting and what to do regardless of alignment -- but I attribute that more to teaching newbies than anything, and on the whole his decision to go the extra step here this game with his lecturing is a town-tell for him.In post 36, Raskolnikov wrote:I'm wondering what the likelihood is micheal would issue that PSA #1 as scum, I think very low. The only issue is the chance he thought of it from pre-game and planned to say it regardless of role pm, instead of just now (makes sense given the circumstances).-
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Hoopla
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Good to see Sotty has still got it after all these years!In post 30, Sotty7 wrote:First page discussion about dice voting
Second page post about not random voting
Only thing missing is a shameless bandwagon discussion
vote: goodmorning-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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I feel like it's fairly obvious from context that I am just teasing goodmorning (she seems like a good kid imo and I might invite her to start a town bloc if/when she proves her innocence to me) -- but really, who could resist such a juicy wagoning opportunity this early in the game?In post 70, Raskolnikov wrote:Mostly though, the post saying she feels her scumread is about to crack under pressure but she changes vote is absurd to me.-
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Hoopla
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I came out all guns blazing yet with no expectations about reactions at all. I know it sounds crazy, but I think I managed to pull it off.In post 77, MichelSableheart wrote:Hoopla, don't you think that your bubblyness, as Rask calls it, should have drawn more reactions then it did? Are there players in his game who you expected would comment on it, but didn't?-
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Hoopla
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Raskol, I know you're frustrated, but you have to respect the shapes I'm throwing down here. You may not like it, but it's already netted us an L-2 wagon so I must be doing something right. As a polite compromise I'll give you my for real 100% serious read on the situation (sandwiched between angel emojis so you know I'm definitely for real no-takesies-backsies)In post 85, Raskolnikov wrote:Okay, if you're town stop talking like this then.
It's vague as to when you're "serious" or not which makes any given action low-commitment. If an opinion is convenient to hold on to, you can later say it was serious. If inconvenient, you can say it wasn't.
But in this case that feels like a stretch. You voted on dice and then said you voted not for it which implied it was at least somewhat serious, as well as what you said about switching. It's almost goes too far really.
Whatever align this has to end. Anyone can realise the issue here; if someone is disingenuous and saying things they don't mean as town, you are not any different from scum being disingenuous and saying things they don't mean. This behaviour from town makes scumhunting difficult so it shouldn't be allowed on principle past RVS (is this still rvs?) unless it's very obvious to be joking, which evidently it was not. And it gives scum an out when people do find a slip up.
It also just annoys me, but that's because I am a uptight bastard who gets bothered seeing people all cheerful-like and having fun... But that's not relevant here.
*ahem*
I want a serious read from you on me as leading wagon, goodmorning (good kid? is that a read or personality?), and whatever else you can offer. Underneath your attitude, I am vaguely familiar with your experience and particularly game knowledge from the setup theory threads, and even if this particular thing hadn't happened, I would want something from you anyways at this point to judge.
I thought BlackVoid's post illuminating your overly qualifier-y post was good and I like to reward good posts with wagon support. You're the best candidate I have so far, and I'm still reviewing your reaction to your wagon so no further comment yet. goodmorning is a good kid, but I have no read on her alignment yet. I think Michel is town. The end.-
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Hoopla
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Do you feel like you're a chance to be lynched early?In post 92, Raskolnikov wrote:If you're town and think playing the game "rewarding" good posts with votes without having your own opinion is a good approach, I don't know what to say. For starting an rvs wagon, okay. It's still earlygame for now.
But if you play like this midgame or later (well you see your honor, I lynched him yesterday to reward a good post) it might be actually be for the best if I'm out of this early.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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woah, woah woah, lets not jump to conclusions here...
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Hoopla
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I like this as a tell in general -- scum often tend to overcompensate if they feel their vote isn't justified well enough... but Sotty can be a savvy scumbag. I honestly don't know how to read her and what tells apply to her these days. Perhaps a good ol' wagoning is just what she needs.In post 101, Jaack wrote:Of those three I think Sotty is most likely. She had an empty vote, but at the same time added a few weak reads right afterword. Seems like someone who knew their vote was not good, so they decided to put down some content so as to not get blamed for fluff. 86 also shows more self awareness about the quality of her posts.-
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Hoopla
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Alright, I think we squeezed as much out of the Raskol wagon as we could. Great job everyone!
More and more these days, I'm starting to believe that the first opening wagon that gets to L-1 or L-2 tends to be town a lot more often than random. Typically the less information in the game and the sooner it happens increases the likelihood of it being town. Why I think this is a trend is that at the beginning of the game any vote can be justified and there's no real information to go on, so there is more incentive for scum to plump existing wagons on town rather than their buddies. There's not really any incentive to distance heavily at the start of the game, because there's no punishment or scrutiny for voting town. Sure, scum still will vote each other from time to time, but there are more barriers along the way in order to achieve a L-1 or L-2 wagon on scum early, whereas when a town wagon emerges there's no hidden opposition ignoring it/voting it elsewhere -- everyone is considering it earnestly, as such, they tend to balloon quicker than scums.
To lynch scum, you need a lot of town zeroing in on the same wavelength or scum helping you. It's very hard to produce that perfect storm of town hivemindedness without genuine information that many players can agree on. And scum help is less likely early in the game, as they don't feel under pressure to distance themselves from each other -- convincing information pressures scum to distance. The reason for Raskol's wagon was decent, but I don't think scum helps us on this wagon very often (if Raskol is scum) and I don't think the reason is good enough to get five townies to vote him that often. It's easier combinatorially to assume Raskol is town and that scum have aided this wagon.
I don't have enough data to say for sure how pronounced this pattern is, but I think it exists and have been investigating it recently. Anyway, for a less impersonal, less statistically tell;
I agree with goodmorning's thought here. Raskol spent several paragraphs dissecting my posts oblivious to the nature of the jokester-y dialogue with goodmorning. I feel like that zeal comes from town curiosity thinking he's caught something, as opposed to scum manufacturing something.In post 112, goodmorning wrote:thatsthejoke.jpg
So Raskolnikov may have murdered an old woman with an axe but is still quite possibly Town, plus TwoFace. I think Scum probably gets the subtext more often than Town does here.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: MariaR-
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Hoopla
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That smells like fear to me!In post 129, MariaR wrote:Oh boy and so it begins this is gonna be fun!
Do you sr me Hoopia I sure hope so-
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Hoopla
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A solitary vote constitutes a challenge?In post 133, MariaR wrote:I don't fear anyone what I smell is a challenge!
Or are you one step ahead of me and smelling the impending votes that are about to rain down upon you for your weird reaction?-
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Hoopla
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Rask's case on me hinges on him believing that I strongly believed goodmorning was scum. I feel like it's obvious that wasn't the case, and the absurdity of Rask dissecting the situation so extensively yet missing the context is one of the reasons why he looks town. I've been seriousposting recently, so he probably thinks I'm town now and would like to humbly withdraw his case.In post 135, BlackVoid wrote:@Hoopla, talk to me about Rask's case on you. Do you think he was accurate in accusing you of using associations?
While you're here, how do you feel about getting in on the ground floor of this promising MariaR wagon?-
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Hoopla
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She's a fidgety nervous scumbag already bracing for conflict from a solitary vote. Are you not curious to see what will happen if we give her some more?In post 137, BlackVoid wrote:Why MariaR? If you think that scum aided the Rask wagon, why vote a player that didn't vote him?
The only alignment relating to that wagon I have conviction about is Rask's. If there's one scum on his wagon (the most likely scenario) -- that's still the same ratio of scum:town as off the wagon anyhow. Are you still suspicious of Rask?-
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Hoopla
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Then why didn't you say anything about Rask's page 2 vote on you?In post 138, MariaR wrote:I dislike any votes on me.-
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Hoopla
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The fact you're continually insisting that I'm trying to soulread you implies that you know I'm town.In post 143, MariaR wrote:I think you sr me because you don't understand and that's okay when people don't understand things they try to shift blame to others you're no different-
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Hoopla
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I think because I was "suspicious" of goodmorning, yet voting him instead, he considered me associating the two of them together. I could be wrong, but that was the only way I could make sense of it.In post 147, BlackVoid wrote:His actual case on you doesn't make sense to me. He says that you voted him based off of associatives with goodmorning. I re-read your posts and still can't find where you tried to tie Rask to GM so I don't know where that's coming from.
It's not so much process-of-elimination. Just an observation from my experience that early large wagons often tend to be town.In post 147, BlackVoid wrote:I actually agree with your previous post that there is just as much chance of there being scum off the wagon than on it so I don't get the pseudo-process-of-elimination.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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humour me!In post 153, MariaR wrote:
What a random question I thought I was a nervous mess wouldn't my opinion on you mean nothing?In post 152, Hoopla wrote:Hey Maria, what do you think about my alignment?-
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Hoopla
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Wagons that swell rapidly based on little information can often collapse just as fast. I don't really have a read on BBT yet.In post 158, BlackVoid wrote:What do you think about the fact that the Rask-wagon dismantled so easily? Also, do you have a read on BBT?-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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I'll get back to you when you declare some reads punctuated with something other than variations ofIn post 175, VictorDeAngelo wrote:What do you think of the reads I have shared?"...is a good vote".-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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What's the point in asking someone what they think about your reads when they're unexplained? Given two others (goodmorning and TwoFace) got that I was prompting you to explain your reads, I find it hard to believe you didn't get that was what I was asking for.In post 238, VictorDeAngelo wrote:But she didn't say that. She said I wasn't sharing reads. Not sharing reads isn't the same as not explaining them. If she had actually said something like what you quoted I wouldn't be scum reading her.
Even when Maria asked for you to "share your reads with the class" you declined to share, so lets not pretend that you haven't had an opportunity to explain any reads. You've been prompted several times by different players in different ways and you haven't volunteered any explanations beyond the superficial. Giving you the benefit of the doubt and assuming you're not just being facetious, I will politely ask you for some further explanation in a direct and easy to understand way. Hopefully my request for explanation has been presented in the correct format for you to reply:In post 238, VictorDeAngelo wrote:
Then why didn't she just ask like Maria did?Which is the equivalent of insisting you explain yourself.
1) Why did you think BlueBloodedToffee was a good vote?
2) Who are your two strong town reads? Why are they strong town reads?
3) Why did you originally think Maria might be a good vote, and why do you think she is town now?
4) Why are you suspicious of me?-
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Hoopla
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Usually when you point out things like this yourself they're less likely to be true than if someone else noticed it themself. Kinda like when people use the argument "I would never do X as scum", when that person has been doing X all game.In post 188, CloudKicker wrote:LOL woops btw i just townsliped that i cannot be mafia with i am innocent or i am a pro at forum mafia in my first game-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hmmm, I feel like I have a lot of town reads and not many scum.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Sotty7
I've felt vaguely suspicious of her for a while for reasons I can't put my finger on yet. I also feel like she's been preemptively buddying me and has ruled out the possibility of trying to read me/interact with me today.-
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Hoopla
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I agree-ish with most of those reads, but how are you town reading Victor? Is it along the lines of scum usually aren't brazen enough to be deliberately obtuse?In post 278, BlackVoid wrote:I've got a fair few townreads cracked. Victor, GM, Rask, TwoFace, and Cloud.
Mostly waiting for content from the lurkpool. In the meantime, if anyone wants to discuss any of those reads with me, I can probably go into that.-
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Hoopla
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I didn't realise you were this obtuse and required such explicit, direct questioning in order to pry information from. I thought it was clear I was asking for elaboration; Twoface thought it was clear, so did goodmorning. I'm going to leave it at that though, because this is a dead end semantics argument.In post 293, VictorDeAngelo wrote:4) Again, this has been discussed in the thread. You went for attack over questioning. I'd expect a post like 261 to be the sort of thing you've have done naturally if you were town.
Although I still don't know the purpose of saying you have two strong town reads and then not sharing who they are, let alone reasons why. Why bother mentioning them at all?-
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Hoopla
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Why did you bother asking me what I thought of your reads, when the extent of your reads wereIn post 295, VictorDeAngelo wrote:Nice attempt to deflect but your doing it again. You're equating not sharing everything with not sharing anything."X might be a good vote"? Surely you must have known there was nothing there for me to comment on.-
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Hoopla
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And at that point, I told you I'd comment when you give something to comment on (your cue here is to give me something to comment on)In post 297, VictorDeAngelo wrote:To attempt to engage you. There were any number of useful things you could have said:
"I think BBT is town and don't agree."
"I think Maria is a good vote as well"
"Why is BBT a good vote?"
"How scummy do you think BBT is?"
"Why did choose BBT over Maria?"
As just a few examples. It's not that you couldn't comment but you didn't.
And then next TwoFace took over and reiterated the same thing, to which you started complaining about semantics, again, instead of providing something for us to comment on. It really shouldn't have got to that point, though. How about instead of throwing it back at me with"what do you think about my two nothing reads and my two mystery town reads who are top secret fyi, ps. they're really strong reads"you actually just said the reason for your reads? Do you literally need someone to hold your hand and ask you directly why you thought they were good votes? If your reasons are any good, just volunteer the information.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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I agree we have playstyle differences. It's awfully convenient and/or lazy of you to find me suspicious for said differences, however.In post 305, VictorDeAngelo wrote:At this point, we are just going to be disagreeing over how to play the game, and I can't be bothered to waste my time further on you.-
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Hoopla
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Mmm, not really. I haven't played with many people on this list. For all they know, that's how I always am and not worth commenting on?In post 302, MichelSableheart wrote:Even if you didn't have expectations, surely you have some thoughts on the lack of reactions?-
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Hoopla
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Hey, just because I like posting in Mafia Discussion doesn't mean I can't have a cheeky LOL with my fellow players while the stakes are low! I find it strange how you are picking apart the opening of the game so rigorously but you're finding difficult to get a read on anything in the last 10 pages.In post 321, MichelSableheart wrote:From reading Mafia Discussion, I know you as someone with a very good grasp on mafia theory. For you to start the game with a dice vote and follow it up with a couple of whimsical posts feels to me like you went deliberately off meta in order to provoke reactions. That everyone basically ignored it, even when you went back to more serious posting, is extremely surprising to me. It feels like more players should have responded, as it would be a good way to get some discussion started. Simultaneously, I can kind of see scum deciding not to engage an experienced player. So I really want to look for players who could have reacted, but didn't.
What do you think about the Victor vs. Me/goodmorning/TwoFace thingy? I know it's a lot of unnecessary semantics, but since you care about how people are reacting to me, do you find it weird that two people volunteered to step in and argue on my behalf yet nobody did the same for Victor? On reflection I kinda do, and I suspect them more than I do Victor (who I'm still trying to work out).-
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Hoopla
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phew, it's a relief you added that emoji to help soften the blowIn post 338, TwoFace wrote: No need for what? To call you a shitty player? You said victor asking me why I wasn't voting since post 107 or whatever number was a good post. That's literally the most useless question of the game so far. So yeah that says to me that if you're town, your opinions are horrible.
sotty, you better go work on your game.-
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Hoopla
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*adds to my to-do list*In post 343, Raskolnikov wrote:Don't feel like hoopla is pressuring sotty at all despite the vote.
- laundry
- get in another argument with victor
- let goodmorning know she's a good kid
- post office
- defrost the chicken (no, not a euphemism)
-pressure sotty-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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What's your favourite animal?In post 346, MariaR wrote:I don't know whats wrong with me I'm reading but my head is just buzzing all the words are getting scrambled and I prob can't remember what was said on the last page
Someone ask me some questions please-
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Hoopla
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Cool, I like raccoons (:In post 348, MariaR wrote:
I love hedgehogs and kittensIn post 347, Hoopla wrote:
What's your favourite animal?In post 346, MariaR wrote:I don't know whats wrong with me I'm reading but my head is just buzzing all the words are getting scrambled and I prob can't remember what was said on the last page
Someone ask me some questions please-
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Hoopla
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*pressurising of Sotty begins*
Ahem, well Sotty, it seems I have been reading you as slight scum, but what if I told you I now think you are very likely scum. That's right. I have a lot of suspicion for you and my one vote is simply not adequate to convey the intensity of my scumread on you. How do you feel about that?-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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nm, just catching you flailing as scum
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Hoopla
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I think he's slightly townie by virtue of it seeming likelier to me that if there's scum to be anywhere in that mess of an argument, it'd be goodmorning or you cashing in on the low-hanging fruit that is picking apart victor's arguments THAT I TOTALLY HAD UNDER CONTROL FYIIn post 393, TwoFace wrote:I can't remember. Are you scum reading victor?-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Lets not go down this road with Victor again...In post 413, MichelSableheart wrote:The reason I'm asking the question, as should be clear from the context...-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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I was working on this yesterday, but ran out of time. Here are some READS:
FUTURE TOWN BLOC MEMBERS WHO WILL SERVE AS THE BACKBONE (ALONG WITH ME) IN GUIDING THE TOWN:
Michel- I see him as a voice of reason type who we seem to be lacking in this town (not that everyone else isn't reasonable -- it just seems like everyone is all over the shop and shooting from the hip)
Raskolnikov- seems to be the most universally read as town player, which will be useful for collective PoE efforts later in the game
TOWNIE BUT A TINGE OF PARANOIA:
BlackVoid- makes good posts, is active and seems like a good townie, but from what I've seen of him, he seems competent enough to be able to fake these things convincingly. Hopefully he is town and can serve as a consultation role to the primary town bloc.
STUBBORN/LOOSECANNONTOWNIES:
Maria- unpredictable, but I'm a sucker for exclamations like"It's fun to ask why people sr me because it's so much more fun to prove them wrong ^_^"- I just don't see scum saying stuff like this as often as town
Victor- has that abrasive town feel about him, but I'm mostly townreading him because of other people's reactions towards him.
LURKERS/NULL/DUNNO:
Jaack- post some more please
I Am Innocent- post some more please
Cloudkicker- hard to get a read on his motivations when he is fresh to MS's metagame. Sometimes he says filler-y/random agreeing posts, but I feel like that's just trying to fit in and act in a way how he thinks is expected of him on this site rather than anything scummy.
SCUMLORDS:
Sotty- Actually feel like she's closer to null these days, but I have too many townreads and by PoE I think all the scum is in my null/scum section
goodmorning- If Victor is town, I think it's quite likely that one of goodmorning/twoface are scum jumping in on the dogpile
TwoFace- see above, probs not scum together tho
BlueBloodedToffee- Upon reread is my top suspect is BBT. I noticed the same thing BlackVoid did but didn't have enough to post about it, which is why make the declaration that Rask is town, then later in the day start questioning someone else about their Rask townread. Seems like scum making up an arbitrary read early in the game (rather than really believing it as town) then later, just throwing out random filler-y questions as is scum's wont, without really recognising it doesn't make sense from a town perspective.
Might be some partner combos that are unlikely within my scumlords section, so sprinkle in the null/lurkers where appropriate to get the rest of the team.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: BBT-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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