Mini Normal 1843 - Endgame

[Hoopla]

I forgot to mention.

I will be V/LA from Nov 2-4.

so, I'll try and do a lot of posting before then.

[Raskolnikov]

aha, hoopla is trying to end the day fast so she can talk in scumchat before V/LA

[MariaR]

I don't hate anyone! ;-;

I h8 u

Blatant contradiction, confscum

....
I plea the 5th
This face can't hate anyone anyway!

Spoiler:

[TwoFace]

Idk blonde chicks can be head cases. Look at Harley quinn

[Hoopla]

aha, hoopla is trying to end the day fast so she can talk in scumchat before V/LA

I usually try and force compromises earlier than I have been in this game. You're lucky I've given everyone this much time to sit on their lazy votes!

[MariaR]

Idk blonde chicks can be head cases. Look at Harley quinn

What about 12 year old blondes (Maria is a child fun fact)

Harley quinn isn't crazy I don't know what could make you think that!

[TwoFace]

<3 Harley

[BlackVoid]

The way Rask and Hoopla are interacting with GreyICE makes me think I'm wrong about him. I'm going to do a thought experiment and look at it from a GreyICE-town standpoint. I still like my theory that Hoopla/Rask interactions with each other look very fake.

UNVOTE:

[BlackVoid]

@GreyICE, okay let's talk. I'm assuming you are town. From my previous list, I'm still townreading Victor, IAI, TwoFace, goodmorning, Jaack, and Cloud. I need to think on Sotty7 a little but probably town. I think MariaR is unlikely to be partnered with Hoopla so conditionally town.

That leaves Hoopla, Rask, and MichelSableheart's slot who I think is the scumteam if you are town. Is there a reason you have Rask as such strong town? Quite frankly, I don't think a passing comment from Rask about him changing his playstyle is a towntell. All he said was "

Disclaimer, I'm on a loss streak and I'm going to be changing my style here a bit.

" That's nowhere near as big as you are saying it is and is probably something he planned to do no matter what alignment he drew.

As for why I suspect him (this also answers MariaR's question): I think a lot of his early play feels contrived. After the wagon formed on him, he went through each vote dissecting them when it was basically a semi-RVS wagon. So early in the game, it didn't make sense to go through each vote as opposed to just pushing whoever he thought was scum. It looked like he was trying to do the towny thing and "analyze" the votes on him.

I know you start skimming once you townread someone but I really think Rask's early posts are worth a close read. Look at his Hoopla push in 70. It's entirely nonsensical. Hoopla never justified a vote on him based on associatives. I think he's overselling his Hoopla scumread. 92 is a bit of a stretch. "Am I in the twilight zone" looked fake in context. His complaints about Hoopla's playstyle also seem overdone.

I think Sotty7 is right that once Rask got townread, he faded out, not to mention he seemed to completely forget his scumread on Hoopla which suddenly resurfaced.

What does he do now? He white-knighted you over the past couple of days. But when your wagon stalled at a critical point and it didn't look like it would go through without his support, he floats paranoia about how good you are and how he could be wrong. He is setting up to vote you closer to deadline while giving lip-service to Hoopla to appease you. But his vote ultimately falls on Victor who I'm reading as town. So, what am I missing? By the way, I think you are tunneling a bit on Victor and IAI. If they are town, who's scum?

[goodmorning]

A. I am not the only vote on Victor.
B. I am not interested in helping you look like you're doing more than you are.
C. Does the fact that the misrep was in the past make it not a misrep?
D. I am clearly not going to be able to convince you on this and I really don't want to try.
E. Is there something about the vote that I should find particularly scummy? And why ask me about that in particular?

Fair enough, Grey did just join you.¹ I'm just trying to engage you when it comes to Victor to try and understand where you're coming from.² I could be wrong, it won't be the first time and sadly not the last time. When I have different reads from someone who I read as town I want to see if maybe I'm missing something.³ "I don't want to help you look like you are doing something" but maybe help yourself?⁴ I'm looking at your Victor vote like Jaack's vote on me, stuck back on page 5 or whatever when all this other stuff has happened in the game that should have strengthened or weakened your point.⁵ Instead your just content to sit on there. I don't get it.⁶

1. "Just"?
2. No, you're not. Also, this sentence feels super slimy.
3. Given that you find everything I said previously and everything Grey said recently unconvincing, and given that any other point I'd be likely to make would be in similar vein, I would be wasting my breath.
4. I don't care if I look useful, so long as I'm providing useful content.
5a. Sometimes, the person you scumread at the beginning of the game is still a scumread many pages later!
5b. No. Jaack has provided a lot of new analysis based on recent posts. You don't get to claim his vote is parked and unchanged; it may be the same vote but it's damned sure not for the same reasons.
6. Stop trying to make buddying me happen. It's not going to happen.

As for trying to get your lynch off -- besides that sounding like disturbing innuendo, if I wanted your lynch off, I wouldn't have unvoted you to begin with and given you a chance to survive.

This really doesn't ring true to me.

You're not an idiot, you're aware of how things are perceived. You know getting off someone 'so they can breathe/catch up/whatever' usually gets pretty widely townread and I think you could tell as well as I could that Grey's lynch is reasonably inevitable - and even if another wagon had sprung up, you'd still get some amount credit from Grey for 'derailing the wagon.'

Maybe I'm paranoid, listening to Grey too much, etc. But this is the first thing you've said that I've had really strong feelings about so????

Greyice I don't think hoopla-IAI are teamed

AHHH NO MORE ASSOCIATIVES BEFORE FLIPS PLEASE

ESPECIALLY NOT NAKED ONES

What other options do we have at this stage, though?

I've seen several people recently saying they'd be chill joining the Victor wagon.

(and then they joined it, niftily)

--

@Jaack: I've posted bits of a case, Grey's posted bits of a case, are you telling me you've not been bothered to read?

@BV: I'm still completely baffled by your IAI tr.

[I Am Innocent]

I have a question for everyone on the Grey wagon

Why do you think no other wagons have really picked up until now because he's scum and getting bussed? Or it's just hard to vote him and scum are content with losing him?
I don't know the answer and I want to

I have seen shade thrown my way, Sotty's way, Victor's way, now Hoopla's way. What do these all have in common???

Hmmmmm, voting GreyIce?

Town is voting GreyIce. There is not any scum on that wagon, so no, no bussing is happening. If he was town, scum would have hammered at one of these points already. But since he's not, yeah, back to the shade and now terribad wagon on Victor.

Grey is getting lynched though today, and we will have lots of information after we see he flips red.

[I Am Innocent]

Black, get back on this wagon, kthxbye

[I Am Innocent]

Right now I have scum in {Grey, Jack, GM, and/or Rask}. If the rest of you would kindly vote GreyIce and confirm me town going forward, I'd appreciate it. Esp since they don't look like they are going to bus any time soon...

[MariaR]

*Yawn* cheesy answer.
"Scum would've hammered" Scum (at least for the most part) dislike drawing attention to themselves so I think it's unlikely for scum to want to hammer if scum are on the grey wagon prob at the start or middle
An all town wagon lynching scum on D1? I haven't seen that in a long time It's not impossible but hey!

NEXT

[I Am Innocent]

Well since ur probably town why not make history then???

[goodmorning]

Town is voting GreyIce. There is not any scum on that wagon, so no, no bussing is happening. If he was town, scum would have hammered at one of these points already.

you are better than this

[TwoFace]

Town is voting GreyIce. There is not any scum on that wagon, so no, no bussing is happening. If he was town, scum would have hammered at one of these points already.

you are better than this

Have to agree here. If in innocent is town, he's delusional. Even if he thinks grey is scum, there's one scum on the wagon but grey is most likely town here. No strong resistance to his wagon and he was the counter to sotty who has had a ton of resistance.

[goodmorning]

like, if iai is not dead when we wake and someone tries to claim vig later i'm fucking lynching them

[I Am Innocent]

like, if iai is not dead when we wake and someone tries to claim vig later i'm fucking lynching them

Is this still true if we lynch Grey and he flips scum?

Town is voting GreyIce. There is not any scum on that wagon, so no, no bussing is happening. If he was town, scum would have hammered at one of these points already.

you are better than this

Have to agree here. If in innocent is town, he's delusional. Even if he thinks grey is scum, there's one scum on the wagon but grey is most likely town here. No strong resistance to his wagon and he was the counter to sotty who has had a ton of resistance.

Nope not delusional. It's possible I'm right about Grey and wrong about Michel. It's also slightly possible that I'm wrong about Grey's slot and Sotty and/or Michel is scum. But like I said, the shade thrown at me, sotty, victor, and now hoopla over the last 5-10 pages doesn't tell you anything??? Take off your sotty tunneling glasses for a minute, pretend she is town, and who now do you see as scum? Who is defending Grey now (some who were recently suspecting him), who is working with him to direct vig shots (always anti-town, since the noise from the group has scum influence in it, a town vig can 100% trust himself tho), who is also trying to cast shade on multiple other options.

Trust me, hop on this wagon, and I'll make sure it's town cred u get when he flips scum, and not late scum bussing cred. Offer expires shortly...

[BlackVoid]

@BV: I'm still completely baffled by your IAI tr.

IAI has pinned all his credibility on GreyICE flipping scum. He's putting all his eggs in one basket and going for broke. The only reason scum would do such a thing either late-game for a crucial mislynch, or if they are backed into a corner in a 1v1. Neither is the case here. If he were scum, there are other options like Victor, Sotty7, and Jaack. They can't all be scum with him. When he started posting, he had a clean slate and could push pretty much anywhere he wanted. He could have built up a reputation to look pro-town. But as early as D1, he went all in, and bet his heart and soul and everything else on this GreyICE scumflip. He thinks he's going to be vindicated and all the antagonism that he's gathered this day phase will be set right.

That's

something I can't see scum faking and I don't think that in this context, and at this time, it makes sense for scum to do that.

[TwoFace]

Trust me, hop on this wagon, and I'll make sure it's town cred u get when he flips scum, and not late scum bussing cred. Offer expires shortly

I'll pass thanks

[GreyICE]

Oh FFS black void, scum go all in on lynches all the time. My wife had practically made a reputation on site based around 1v1ing people as scum, and most of them are townies. I do it all the time too when I'm scum. Everyone gives you town credit because "scum wouldn't do that" and you get to avoid commenting on other slots. What you're doing is taking one style of scum play (coasting lurker scum who vaguely support their buddies) and evaluating how well they fit that mold. I'm asking you what the town motivation is for Victor dropping off as soon as he was town read or IAI going from zero to hero once he started taking heat.

You forget, IAI is voting the largest wagon. Would you lynch him tomorrow if I'm lynched today and flip town? Nah, you'd say "he seemed townie but was wrong". That's the sob story tomorrow.

Rask, is never in a million years vote. Lynch me first, I don't care. Rask is 90% town and that's only because Maria is setting a new gold standard for towniest person.

Hoopla... I hate. I've mislynched her, scumread her... she fucking sucks day 1. This is sadly consistent with her level of day 1 play. She hides behind it as scum, but I'm not willing to lynch her day 1 again just because her day 1 play is beyond bad.

MichaelSableheart... we're sitting waiting on a replacement:

I honestly think you're used to one kind of scumplay. MS has seen every possible flavor, your tells aren't going to work here if you apply them formulaically.

Remember: you care about credibility because you want to lynch scum. IAI will throw all his away to avoid scum lynches because as long as town is getting lynched it doesn't matter who.

[TwoFace]

Who's your wife?

[BlackVoid]

I find it hard to believe that every single one of your suspects are people that are voting you. It reads as if you are trying not to antagonize anyone that's townreading you. I don't think Rask looks town. I don't think MariaR looks town. She's making similar arguments to Hoopla which basically comes down to "any wagon with support is a town wagon because if it was a scum wagon, it wouldn't have support." That's a bit of a circular argument. She wasn't even townreading you so the opposition to the wagon is weird. Same with Rask. He had you as null and then started casting around for wagons elsewhere. Why are you townreading them?

[GreyICE]

Who's your wife?

LadyLambdadelta