Mafia 72: Peril in Panama - Game over!

[Setael]

Hi everyone. I read the thread today. First, I believe BM's claim but even if I didn't I wouldn't be willing to vote him today. Besides the fact that scum will be motivated to NK him (and we should not be doing mafia's work for them) there's also the issue that hasn't been mentioned, which is the fact that we have 2 claimed masons. If mafia chooses not to NK BM they will likely target one of the masons. If they happen to target the one BM protects, scum gets no NK. If they decide not to risk it, both our masons survive and they maybe hit the SK or a vanilla instead. Making the mafia sweat who to target is enough reason for me to definitively say that I will not be voting BM today.

I'm out of time and will post my analysis tomorrow.

[Setael]

When townies start doing joking uber-scummy posts, nothing can really be learned from it.

I think this was a slip. It was hashed out, and then the wagon seems to have ended basically due to distraction. So I took a close look at how that wagon ended.

It starts when CKD calls Unright on it. ABR disregards it, Nekka’s response is hard to judge - it’s like he’s explaining it away as a newbie error; Jordan calls him on it and votes Unright; CKD then votes Unright for it. We then get an unmistakable defense of Unright from DP who says

I agree [with Unright] completely. I would lynch those doing this day one on principle because they are counterproductive - and may well be scum.

Major FOS to those voting Unright based on his post.

DP completely ignores the scumtell being discussed of Unright calling them "townies."

BM then focuses on Jordan saying

I'm not sure i like how you latched on to someone elses argument completely in order to validate a BW vote.
Unvote, Vote: Jordan”

ABR then calls out BM; BM defends himself; Unright then says

Albert B. Rampage is right. JordanA24's suspicion and vote were his own and were first. He wasn't latching onto anyone else's train of thought or jumping on any bandwagons.

unvote
vote: Battle Mage

This is inaccurate, and is a poor excuse for a vote. Looks pretty obviously like his goal is to distract from his scum tell. Looks like panicky scum flailing to get out of the spotlight. CKD calls Unright on this and says “Seems pretty close to me...I think Jordan was agreeing with me. Why are you putting words into ABR's mouth? ABR didnt say that Jordan's suspicions was his own, he only said Jordan didnt bandwagon...” ABR agrees and votes Unright.

Post 48 Nekka once again disregards what is being pointed out as a scumtell and gives Unright a peptalk about the usefulness of the random stage. Gage agrees with Nekka and says he thinks Unright would come up town, while undermining this by saying his scumdar is borked. We then get distraction by the masons as ABR and Gage discuss where Gage has played. DP follows this up with “I'm fine with lynching any of the self-voters on day one.”

Jordan calls him on it and votes DP. ABR agrees and votes DP.

Unright then manages to further distract with a bunch of questions about self voting, the random stage, green/blue etc.

MoS, who has yet to weigh in on Unright at all, ignores the issue entirely and votes Jordan for his DP vote and FOSes ABR for agreeing. I didn't like this post at all. MOS clarifies in post 62 that his reasons for this are meta re: DP's play. Odd that in post 58 he gave no indication that he had meta reasons for his argument. Rather, he spoke as though it was something Jordan and ABR should know. Here's the post:

Jordan is stretching like a mother----. It is *NEVER* too early to be serious about lynching. Just because DP is willing to lynch a self-voter does not mean that he's trying rush the day, nor does it mean that he's willing to let everyone blindly bandwagon without giving their own opinions. You're bullshitting us this early? Nice try.

Unvote, Vote: Jordan

FoS: ABR for following him.

If his reasons for thinking it’s a nulltell are meta, why would he assume Jordan and ABR should know this to the point that it merits a vote? And why wouldn't he mention that at the time he voted? Then, when he has to explain that his argument only holds water if you have the meta he has, why doesn't he unvote? Not only does he not unvote, he holds the vote until now and is still voting Jordan. For what, exactly? For not having the meta on DP that MoS has?

BM brings it back to Unright in Post 70 saying

wow buddying up ftl! and even better, you managed to completely misinterpret someone's comments in the process.
gg defensive-you are blatant scum.

Unvote, Vote: Unright

The masons (ABR and then Gage) disagree with BM and start a bandwagon on him.

^This was the post in which you blatantly misinterpreted not only what ABR was saying, but also you completely misconstrued the situation. Its interesting how you don't like it when i point out your scummy play, but don't bat an eyelid when CKD and ABR himself attack you for the exact same reason.

These are valid arguments and while reading I'm thinking "Good! Finally someone brings it back to Unright who managed to slide out from under the microscope."

But then in the next post we get MoS again, telling BM to cool off. Totally disregards BM's arguments and undermines it by making BM look hot headed.

DP rereads. Says of Unright

4. Unright
I like his posts so far. Reasonable and trying to get things going for the town.

Votes ABR. ABR points out that DP’s analysis of BM was very similar to ABR’s but ABR earned a vote for it, while it was explained away as merely BM’s style. DP's response is that there were differences between his analyses of the 2 players. Yes, but too subtle of differences. The point stands against DP.

Porochaz comes out of nowhere after virtually no content; latches onto this in 99 and votes DP without giving further comment on the game.

DP then explains how easily he can be talked out of his ABR vote

I don't know you. AFAIK I never played with you. The same goes for BM, but I have read a lot about him in various threads. Not about you - at least not that I remember. Howver, if the other players confirm that you are just as loose a cannon as BM, I will downgrade you on my list of suspects.

CKD unvotes Unright with a hearty “not feeling it right now”; BM appears to obey MoS' order to drop it, and the wagon is forgotten, never to be revisited.

My feeling about the whole thing is there were good, legitimate reasons to suspect Unright and if he was a townie, scum would've made sure that wagon succeeded (and it wouldn't have been hard). It only makes sense for it to successfully be swept under the rug if Unright is scum.

vote: Unright

Continuing on, 111 & 168 Gage and ABR claim masons. I see no possibility that it was a scum gambit (mostly because I cannot fathom ABR bailing out Gage in this case if they were scum buddies. Rather, I think he'd have let him go down in flames). So I believe both of them are protown masons.

244 Nekka comes off pro-town. Can’t see scum saying they like someone for thinking they’re pro-town.

249 MOS declares BM protown and says those voting him are idiots

256 ckd follows mos; unvotes BM

333 Vollkan extremely noncommittal – nearly everyone at 50% (neutral) Highest he goes is 65% on BM, while giving several reasons to think he’s town. Seems too safe – no real stand on anyone. 341 calls pete d noncommittal. Talk about the pot calling the kettle black.

372 vollkan votes BM to “kickstart” the game. He’s careful to not give real reasons or take a stand – it’s a vote that’ll be easy to back out of. Then fosses Bookitty rather than voting. Looks self conscious, noncommittal – playing extremely safe and not taking a firm stand on anyone.

I also think there's a good chance that Porochaz is scum. Has posted practically no content. When he has voted, it's only after latching onto someone else's argument. He has done no scum hunting and has been lying low, not accusing anyone or stating his suspicions.

As for the matter at hand, ABR and Gage could be scum together... more likely newbie silliness and albert saving lives. However Im in heaps of games and I still know exactly is going on in each and Ive been here all of about 6 weeks. If not read then post or do wha I do read whilst posting. This conbined with the over reaction early on unvote vote Battle Mage

This post is one of his most content filled. A bad argument that ABR and Gage could be scum buddies, then disregarding his own opinion and saying "more likely newbie silliness and albert saving lives." He then places an odd, unjustified BM vote. Not long after, we get:

oh and unvote With me making a mistake about the over reacting and allowing for a mistake in the reading I think it would be a mistake for me to continue voting BM

He then gives several nothing posts, lurking in plain sight while saying he needs to read. After his reread we get:

K having read over I feel BM is most scummy, however he is now at L-2 and I really dont have much more than a "feeling" that he is scummy... and in my book that isnt enough to lynch him so I won't vote unless theres some sort of deadline that I totally overlooked.

So the entire game he hasn't given a good reason to think anyone is scum. Even when he latches onto someone else's argument, it's weak.

Scumlist

Unright
Porochaz
DP
vollkan
MoS

I'm leaning town on Bookitty. I got several protown reads from Nekka and don't think his part in distracting from the Unright wagon was intentional. Looks more like he thought Gage was making newbie errors rather than scum coaching scum. Bookitty's play has felt town, and the arguments against her right now are pretty weak.

Everyone else is on my town list, with ABR, Gage and BM the most confirmed.

[Setael]

A defense of what exactly? Are you asking me to defend Jordan (who I replaced) or Bookitty?

Please clarify what you think I've swept under the rug.

[Setael]

Why should I offer a defense of Bookitty? I'd much rather find scum and let Bookitty defend herself.

By the way, ABR what are your current thoughts on Unright? If you no longer think he's scum, what changed your mind? You had good reasons to vote him once upon a time. Are they no longer valid?

[Setael]

*if we say we will lynch BM tomorrow, the scum won't NK him, which is an very relevant point that the mafia would think of regardless of whether we say it or not

Agreed. I don't think we should lynch BM tomorrow, either, but that doesn't mean the entire town will agree with me. So scum don't know for sure if we'll lynch BM tomorrow or not since we don't even know yet.

I don't think Bookitty is the lynch for today. I'd much rather lynch anyone on my scum list.

[Setael]

Setael, please help this young grasshopper defend herself ???? Clearly you think she is town, and yet you have mysteriously withheld all your thoughts on the matter, so why don't you dignify us with a response to posts 482, 483 and 484.

So odd. You'd think I was the only one not voting Bookitty. How about, instead, we ask for ALL players' take on this exchange between you and Bookitty?

[Setael]

But look at it this way, you have again and again said that you don't find her scummy, and since you are a replacement we don't have a clear idea on your methodology yet. Tell me why you think 482 to 484 is not sufficient. Tell me the loopholes. Tell me something, anything, just don't go around trying to drown an argument before everyone has acknowledged based on absolutely nothing.

Hmmm... my intention is not to drown your arguments. I just think there are better places for my vote. You could be right about Boo, but one reason I think you're wrong is I think vollkan might be scum and he's supporting your wagon in a non-bussing kind of way. In my mind, that undermines the Bookitty wagon.

What do you think of vollkan ABR? Do you agree that he's been wishy washy?

As for your 482, you've listed several things "scum do" and then fit Boo's play into them. You could take any player in this game and find something they've done that fits under those. I agree that Bookitty's point against pete D wasn't strong. I don't agree with her. I don't think pete D is scum. However, the fact that her point isn't strong does not make her scum.

So then in 483 you admit it doesn't look like much, but then say that the scummiest post in the game so far is when Bookitty said she was tempted to vote pete D for it but didn't. I very much disagree that this statement is the scummiest thing in the game. How is that different from FOSing? How is it different from the FOS vollkan put on Bookitty in post 475? He's saying he thinks she's scum, but isn't voting her. What's the difference? I actually think vollkan's is worse, since it's more noncommital and allows him to hide behind your argument. It feels like he's trying to stay on everyone's good side to avoid negative attention. Bookitty's pete D points, on the other hand, as you said yourself were on a player no one had stated suspicion of. Town is more likely to do that than scum because it's not as safe.

As for 484:

I didn't find it especially clear.

Is ABR right? Is suggesting scum strategies generally considered a pro-town tell, and not to be questioned? I'd like some other people to weigh in on this point.

This is equally horrendous. Seeing this, I would be freaked out if I were her mafia partners. What kind of horror-movie-worthy post is this ? How can you make such a daring attempt at discrediting someone with pseudo-rhetoric and false dichotomies ?

Where you see this as a scum tell, I think it's more likely to be said by town who isn't worried about "freaking out their partners."

So anyway I have a town read on Bookitty, and I think the case on her is weak. I could be wrong about her, but I think there are scummier people to be focusing on right now, one of which is Unright. He's gotten all quiet now that he's out of the spotlight. Maybe he's worried he'll slip up again. I'd really like to see what happens if he gets pressured again. WHO'S WITH ME?!

[Setael]

If Bookitty is a protown power role I am going to be SO pissed at you ABR.

[Setael]

I tip my hat to ABR and concede that I was wrong about Bookitty. And for this post:

shoot I forgot about that... however I am still not discounting the theory that gage panicked when under suspicion and claimed mason and ABR not wanting his scumpartner lynched needed to claim mason as well... however I am not sure as of yet... so Im downgrading unvote and fos ABR and then vote Lowell for his post.

vote: porochaz

[Setael]

You're wrong about me, so I'm willing to bet you're wrong about him as well.

[Setael]

Do you really think because he was right about Bookitty I should assume he'll be right with the rest of his hunches? I happen to know he's wrong about me, so where is the logic in trusting his gut read on Porochaz? I think Porochaz is scum and the post I quoted was super scummy. ABR disagreeing is not going to influence that just because he was right about Bookitty.

Frankly, ABR is crazy and blind if he thinks my play is conducive to being one of Boo's scum buddies. If I was I'd have either been safely on that wagon, or at least laying low. Call WIFOM all you want, it doesn't make sense for scum to blatantly defend and refuse to join the wagon of a scum buddy who's going down in flames. I did not think Boo was scum. I did not think the wagon was for decent reasons, and I thought it was crazy that ABR wanted her hammered before she could claim. I expected her to come up town so I could rub it in ABR's face, but no. I am the one who was wrong. It is, however, ridiculous of him to think I'm scum for not knowing her alignment and for thinking her wagon was weak. It may be telling though, to see who agrees with him.

[Setael]

Pathetic. I love you as a player of integrity and content-wise you are outstanding; but your acting skills suck.

Thank you for the compliment. It will look even more like a compliment once you know I'm town and realize there was no acting involved.

The lack of logic in this post is astonishing. Let me just add in one little fact: ABR was right about Book (Setael has conceded this herself).

Therefore, is it not just as feasible to argue by Set's messed-up logic that ABR is right about Set and Poro?

My point was that regardless of the fact that Albert was right about Bookitty, that doesn't mean he's right about Porochaz. Everyone knows that just because a player is right about and finds one scum, that doesn't mean the rest of their suspicions are right. A good example of this is Albert's

surety

that I am scum when in fact, he's wrong. That's what I was saying, though the more it's picked apart as my "logic" the less it makes sense.

shoot I forgot about that... however I am still not discounting the theory that gage panicked when under suspicion and claimed mason and ABR not wanting his scumpartner lynched needed to claim mason as well... however I am not sure as of yet... so Im downgrading unvote and fos ABR and then vote Lowell for his post.

Why is that post suspicion-worthy? And why is that suspicion worthy of a vote?

First of all, I can only see scum coming up with this theory in order to cast suspicion on claimed masons. Second the "however I am not sure as of yet" is incredibly scummy. I can't see a townie saying that or coming at it from that point of view. I see no logical reason for Albert to "bail out" gage if he's scum. A townie wouldn't make this argument and then distance themselves from the whole thing by saying they're "not sure as of yet" about it.

That being said, I agree that ckd is likely scum. The contradiction Albert pointed out along with the hammer post and his lack of a decent defense is, admittedly, more than I have on Porochaz. CKD looks especially bad considering vollkan's avoidance to comment on him at all. I think Porochaz, CKD and vollkan are scum. I believe ABR is a protown mason so he's just wrong about me - the others who have agreed with/pushed my wagon are likely scum (Porochaz, vollkan - I wouldn't say MoS, I think he's just a townie who's being easily convinced). Unright is still up there, but only based on yesterday. vollkan looks especially bad at this point (if CKD is scum) since he's avoiding the ckd wagon to push a case on me.

unvote, vote: ckd

[Setael]

If I'm wrong about Porochaz, my scum list becomes ckd, vollkan, unright.

[Setael]

I don't think I've ever been called Satan before. Even in jest. I guess there's a first time for everything.

Albert, I guess I should have said "scummy" instead of "scum". Who I think is scum(my) has nothing to do with how many scum there are. I'm suspicious of 4 people. I don't know which of them are actually scum. If Porochaz came up town, unright would move up the list.

ckd, I gave my reasons for voting you. Scummy of you to pretend I didn't. Don't worry, though. With Al on the rampage and scum motivated to support my mislynch, I'd be surprised if you don't get out of being lynched today. There's no talking Albert out of pushing my lynch at this point (I'm Boo from yesterday - he won't even need a claim. Except with one big difference. This time he's wrong). At least when I come up town attention will turn to ckd, vollkan and porochaz. unright is lurking so we don't have his response to my wagon yet, but based on his play from yesterday, he should also be pressured.

Though Albert is the main pusher here (and will likely continue to be), when I come up town I don't think that should cast any suspicion on him. There's no way he was bussing Bookitty. He's protown. Those supporting his suspicion of me and hiding behind his case - they're the ones to look at.

[Setael]

How is it a "screw up" for a townie to not know other players' alignments? That's just the set-up. Townies aren't going to be right all the time in their suspicions because they have no prior knowledge. This is the worst case of tunnel vision I've ever seen. I'm really glad I'm not scum in this game, or I'd feel like I'd really blown it. As it is, a townie can't be blamed for not knowing another player's alignment and being wrong about them.

The only thing I've done wrong is not knowing Boo was scum and not supporting what looked like a ridiculously fast mislynch. Thanks mostly to ABR, I'm now an easy mislynch. The scum don't even have to work anymore - they can just wait for ABR to bully the town into lynching me. With one of our most confirmed protown players pushing, I have no chance. Basically, right now ABR is the scum's best weapon. What a wasted day.

[Setael]

Hey ABR, assuming I'm town for just a second - who would your scum list be?

[Setael]

Its what you did, its how you did it, and this is true for every scum tell. I've already documented your scumpatterns and psyscumology last page. You ignore common sense, try to bury strong cases, constantly make emotional appeals and side-track everyone with your garbage. You are valuable to any town lucky enough to have you, but as scum your play is only sub-par.

The irony here is so thick I'm choking on it. Evidently you're wrong about what a good townie I am, since a good townie would not manage to look this scummy to so many (not all of whom can be scum). The most incorrect part of that quote (at least re: this game so far) is "You are valuable to any town lucky enough to have you."

At least you'll look at vollkan and ckd when I come up town. In that way at least I've been a little "valuable".

[Setael]

I've noticed something in vollkan's posts re: CKD that I'd like to point out.

CKD makes a good point about Unright putting words into ABR's mouth and votes…

Page 11
Unright thinks that seeing BM as scummy depends on injecting wifom. I disagree, since BM could easily have screwed up in the voting as a scum. That isn't to say that I think he is scummy for the votes, just that I don't think it is a town-tell. Whilst people tend to be more careful as scum, I don't think that it is really a wifom.

CKD gets points for realising this.

MoS thinks it is a null-tell. BM moves MoS to pro-town for the accurate meta - this is being overly generous with townie brownies.

CKD, sensibly, doesn't buy this.

(bolding by me)

Jordan points out a bogus contradiction from CKD - I call it bogus because he suggests there is some inconsistency with CKD unvoting BM and CKD asking pete d why he thinks BM is OK.

11. curiouskarmadog
I have no issues here, since I find myself in agreement with him on most of the matters I look at above. 50%

Not only do we have all these compliments of CKD's play, we also have absolutely no negative comments from vollkan about CKD. No stated suspicion, no implied suspicion. The logical conclusion would be for vollkan to list ckd on the town end of his scum list, but he didn't. I didn't catch this at first since his whole analysis post was so wishy washy and noncommital, but he pointed it out himself when he said:

If you read my comments on those who have a 50%, there are either people I have scant suspicion of (Jordan, CKD and ABR) and lurkers who I have no read on.

In light of the fact that vollkan not only had never stated any suspicion of CKD and had instead pointed out several things that should put him on the town side of his scum list, we'd expect CKD to end up there. Scant suspicion is still suspicion. Why not list him as town? After vollkan's analysis, if vollkan is town (or if CKD is town) the only thing that makes sense is for vollkan to list CKD as town. UNLESS both ckd and vollkan are scum and vollkan was trying to paint ckd in a town light while distancing from him, which is the only scenario in which I can see vollkan making the statements he did about CKD seeming town and then listing him at 50%. So yeah, my vote stays.

[Setael]

The reason is simply that whilst they were not scummy going by my initial read,

I had seen nothing which suggested to me that they were more likely to be town

.

The part I bolded is a direct contradiction to all these statements you made:

CKD makes a good point about Unright putting words into ABR's mouth and votes…

CKD gets points for realising this.

CKD, sensibly, doesn't buy this.

Jordan points out a bogus contradiction from CKD - I call it bogus because he suggests there is some inconsistency with CKD unvoting BM and CKD asking pete d why he thinks BM is OK.

11. curiouskarmadog
I have no issues here, since I find myself in agreement with him on most of the matters I look at above. 50%

[Setael]

Hi Shanba. Yeah, I started one game from scratch and the first 10 pages were pretty boring. I prefer replacing in once it's exciting

Anyone else think it's odd that there's never been a NK? I think they were stopped by the doc or cop N1 but I think there was a NK last night.

I think there's a good chance that vollkan NK'd me with the intention of claiming vig. Risky, but worth a gamble since they've already lost 2 members of their team. They knew ABR would likely push my lynch today, with me targeting vollkan the whole time and then when I came up town it would look very bad on vollkan. Perfect solution = NK me and claim it as a vig kill. Might give a chance at a win to a scum team that has been dropping like flies.

I also think if he was town he'd be more likely to be a 1-shot. Oh, and if he was town I think he'd have vigged me after Bookitty came up scum. I see no reason for a town vig with a nightly kill to have left me alive after Bookitty's lynch. As scum, he'd definitely claim to be able to kill every night to keep us from lynching him. All signs point to vollkan scum.

vote: vollkan

[Setael]

EBWOP: I think they were stopped by the doc or RB (not cop)

[Setael]

I'm confused.

Anyway, vollkan - if you're a town vig that can kill every night, why didn't you vig me after the Bookitty lynch? What about me made you think I wasn't scum to the point of not vigging me, and how did my play yesterday change your mind so quickly?

Shanba (and anyone else who's active but not posting), what do you think of my case on vollkan in post 665, as well as my earlier cases pointing out the link between him and ckd?

[Setael]

I think it is more likely then not that Volkan is telling the truth. I honestly can't see what scum would gain with Setael dead. She was the next to be lynched in many people's mind and would have kept however many scum there are safe for at least one lynch. It's possible Volkan is the SK, but I doubt mafia scum.

1) Do you have an explanation for there being no mafia NKs both N1 and N2?
2) Did you read my post 665?

I find it odd that someone would not even consider the option that vollkan is scum, considering it makes perfect sense. Sure that doesn't mean it's a sure thing, but it's a good possibility and therefore odd to discount it entirely.

[Setael]

I get the feeling some of you didn't see post 661, in which I replaced streeflo.

Setael died. I am now Streeflo, only cuter. Nice to meet you.

[Setael]

farside, I've already answered that. If vollkan is scum, he had very good reasons to NK me and claim vig. It's like you're poking your fingers in your ears and yelling "Nah nah I can't hear you!"

That being said, I'm not so sure anymore.

On one hand, I can't see vollkan scum admitting that he lied about how many kills he has. If he was scum, it seems more likely that he'd pick a story and stick to it in order to avoid getting caught in a lie. Seems like he either would have claimed one shot from the beginning or stuck with the story that he can kill every night. Scum fake claiming would not want to risk the town ganging up with a LAL policy.

However, I guess it's possible that he claimed he could kill every night thinking that would keep the town from lynching him since he's valuable, and then realized he could not defend against the fact that it made no sense for him to not kill N1. Could be just a slip up.

Also, it makes no sense to me that he's saying that he lied in order to attract a NK. If we are believing that he's the town vig the scum would consider him confirmed, and he'd be a target for a NK anyway without having to lie.

I also find it odd that vollkan is completely ignoring me and only stating that there's no case on him and albert's doesn't count. Everything I brought up about his scummy interaction with ckd still stands. Though the more I look at it, it doesn't seem like scum would be as complimentary to a scum buddy as he was. He tried to downplay it later though so meh.

Either way, I still think he's more likely scum and if I'm wrong we're only losing a vanilla.

[Setael]

I don't buy that the mafia keeps targeting the mason that BM happens to protect every night. Any one else have another thought as to why there have been no NKs? I'm the only one who's provided an alternative explanation so far and it could very easily be incorrect. So... thoughts?

[Setael]

Since you want to put that all out there for me to say. I return the favor in kind and you must say if I'm right and Vokan is not scum. You must say: Farside is the most knowledgable player on this site and I am not fit to stand or play in the same game as her. I bow down to her intelligence (although not her spelling) and worship her.

And farside, if vollkan is actually scum, don't be surprised when ABR pushes your lynch as hard as he pushed mine when I was wrong about Bookitty.

@vollkan: If you're telling the truth, why do you think there haven't been any NKs?

[Setael]

After rereading, I think the last 2 scums (assuming 4 which seems likely as there is obviously no SK) are Lowell and Dragon Phoenix. Of all the players, their play has been the safest and most low key.

My main reason for thinking it's both of them is when Lowell replaced in, he listed DP as his #1 choice for scum. Then, when DP was the 2nd vote on the Bookitty wagon and didn't move it, he declared DP town. This seems like a perfect scum move to me. Come in accusing a scum buddy to distance, but when that scum buddy does something you can call an irrevocably townie move, use it as a reason to clear them. It would also be wise to clear anyone else at the same time whose play on the GF wagon seemed townie - lowell did so, also clearing pete d, vollkan and MoS for their Bookitty wagon play. His quote about ckd looks like distancing without wanting to start a real wagon:

The "I Don't Know What To Make Of Them" List:

ckd. EVERYTHING about his actions reeks of scumminess during the leadup to the bookitty lynch. The worst, in my opinion, are posts 470 and 472, where he intentionally tries to curb the Albert/boo discussion and generalize the game (always a bad sign).

So, basically, he'd be a shoo-in for scum except for... post 513. He places the deadline hammer vote. So, I dont' know what to make of him.

Doesn't mention the possibility that ckd was hammering for townie points, just calls it a Super Townie Move and uses the hammer to counteract all the scummy things he listed. Looks especially bad to not be able to form an opinion on ckd, but call Setael1 and Porochaz definite scum for Bookitty wagon play which was not any juicier than what he had on ckd.

So then lowell lurks through the entire ckd wagon and doesn't post at all that day. After clearing vollkan as town for the Bookitty wagon, his very next post is to join the vollkan wagon:

vote vollkan. If Albert says "jump", I say "how high"?

He gives no reason to go from thinking vollkan is definitely town to being willing to lynch him. Shifts all the responsibility for a vollkan mislynch to ABR.

Besides Lowell's posts which make me think he and DP are scum together, reading DP in exclusion raises eyebrows. Too perfect a voting record, and too perfect placement of votes on scum wagons, as though he knows everyone's alignment and wants to look really good come end game. He's given minimal content, agreeing with others a lot. His ckd vote on Nov 15 doesn't seem justified - looks like it was just for distancing. Then gives several posts expressing impatience the game’s not going faster and wanting deadlines. Bookitty vote Dec. 27 could easily be bussing.

Reading DP's posts from yesterday, it seems as though he knew vollkan would come up town. Goes for the Porochaz wagon, the obvious and easiest wagon for scum to push.

eenie meenie miney mo

vote: Lowell

[Setael]

*sigh*

NO ONE HAMMER.

Since Porochaz is at -1, I think I need to claim to keep you people from lynching a confirmed townie. Porochaz isn't scum, but I have no faith that he'll be able to talk himself out of this lynch, and I agree that his play has been sketchy enough to have earned all his votes and I therefore have no faith that I'll be able to talk anyone out of lynching him without outing myself anyway.

I'm the cop. There's a reason I think DP and Lowell are the last 2 scums.

streeflo investigated MoS N1 and got an innocent. He investigated setael1 N2 which is unfortunate, and last night I investigated Porochaz and got an innocent.

So the player list looks like this:

TOWN

Setael - COP
Shanba - MASON
MoS - INNOCENT
Porochaz - INNOCENT

POSSIBLE SCUMS

farside22 (replacing Unright)
Lowell (replacing richman99)
Dragon Phoenix
pete d

CLAIMED, UNCONFIRMED (possibly scum)

Battle Mage - CLAIMED DOC

Looking at Bookitty's case D1 on pete d I doubt he's scum and looking at farside's play, I think she's more likely to be town than DP and Lowell. Anyone who has time to look into it more deeply I'd appreciate insight from since I could be wrong about which 2 of the 4 are scum.

I don't feel so bad about claiming because supposedly we have a doc. The mafia has been WIFOMing us by not NKing BM and this is a way to find out if the claim is true or not. If BM doesn't protect me tonight, we'll know he lied and won't get screwed trusting him clear until end game. So as much as I'd rather stay hidden, there are benefits to me claiming and it's worth keeping Porochaz in the game.

Unvote please, people.

[Setael]

I know I'm sane because streeflo got an innocent on setael1 and then I came up innocent when vigged.

I am assuming 4 scum because of the # of power roles. Assuming BM is telling the truth we've had a town vig, a doc, a cop and 2 masons. If BM is lying, that's still a lot of power roles to only have 3 scum when there's no SK. I guess there could be MORE than 4 but I think 4 would be about balanced.

There is just too much I want to say about this. I'm giving just a little leway (very little). If Lowell or DP do not turn out not to be scum I'm seriously thinking you are lying just to protect yourself from another lynch.

This statement was very interesting. I could very well be wrong about DP and Lowell. farside seems to be trying to set me up for a mislynch here, which scum would definitely be motivated to do at this point. we have a lot of confirmeds alive and it will be tough for scum to NK them all before we find them. Now that I think about it, farside's votes on the wagons were much later, likely when it looked like her scum buddies were definitely going down and there was no stopping it.

unvote

I need to reread.

[Setael]

With this many power roles though, don't you think there'd be an SK if there are only 3 scum?

[Setael]

More food for thought. I know the scum have been erratic a lot of the game, but WHY is a claimed doctor still alive? There is no guarantee that we have a doctor in this setup, and a doc is anyway a convenient scum claim. I don't think BM is a good lynch today, but let's not forget that he is in no way a cleared pro-town role.

This is another benefit I saw to me claiming even though I haven't found scum yet. It takes WIFOM power out of the scum's hands. If BM is the doc, he will protect me so I will get at least one more investigation, but he will likely die tonight. If he is scum, I will die tonight but at least you'll know and can lynch BM tomorrow. There's a small chance the scum will leave us both alive hoping we'll mislynch one of us tomorrow but we would likely still lynch one of the 4 and it'd be nearly game over. Likely I'll find scum tonight and we'd lynch them. Scum can't risk that. The longer they leave me alive, I'll eventually find them and even be able to investigate BM if necessary.

I still think there are 2 scum left, but I concede that I could be wrong. I'm not so sure about Lowell anymore - I'd like to hear more from him, that's for sure.

By the way, streeflo bread crumbed in his 2nd post. The first letters of the first three words spell COP.

[Setael]

I think you should lay your reasons out now for doubting my claim rather than waiting until you're close to a lynch. I know you are wrong, but the discussion will give more insight into you and that would be helpful.

[Setael]

I'm confused what you mean by lock up. It sounds like you're saying that whoever I investigate is not allowed to use their night action. I do not believe that is accurate, but I'm not sure if that's what you meant. Maybe you could clarify?

My understanding is that if vollkan was scum, he could have NK'd me last night even if I investigated him. There is no way that I have heard of for a cop's investigation to "lock up" someone so they can't use their night action. I'm not a roleblocker at all as far as I know.

I can kind of see your reasoning in regards to vollkan, but like Porochaz pointed out, I can't count on being able to investigate everyone in the game. What if I investigated vollkan and then he was NK'd? That'd be a waste. I chose to investigate the person least likely to be NKd and most generally believed to be scummy - Porochaz. If I had investigated vollkan last night, Porochaz would almost certainly have been lynched today. I had a lot of reasons for thinking vollkan was scum. It started with his interaction with ckd and his nonsensical agreement with ABR about setael1's alignment. Then, the fact that he lied about being a 1 shot. LAL. I also received a PM from ckd yelling at me for still posting in a game in which I was dead. I pointed out to him that I had replaced streeflo and I know it was a legitimate mistake on his part, but it made me think it even more likely that I was on the right track, and ckd was upset because I was on to his scum buddy. Such was not the case but is another reason I never believed vollkan.

Not sure what to think about farside doubting my claim. I tend to think mafia wouldn't push it like she is, drawing unneeded negative attention. If she did happen to get me mislynched she would immediately be under suspicion which is a big risk. If there is only 1 scum, I'd think they'd play it pretty safe at this point. However, if there's only 1 left, they pretty much have to get a power role mislynched today in order to have a chance at winning. DP has planted the seeds today of getting the doc mislynched, and farside could be trying to plant seeds to get me mislynched. For all I know BM really is lying, but imo only scum would try to get him lynched with a cop still alive that could use the protection and who could investigate the claimed doc if he happens to continue avoiding NK.

I'd also like to hear MoS' thoughts.

[Setael]

Resent all you want. You and I recently were in a game together where the scum left a claimed doc alive for several days. It's not like you've never seen scum WIFOM the town in that way before. So this post does not sit well with me:

More food for thought. I know the scum have been erratic a lot of the game, but WHY is a claimed doctor still alive? There is no guarantee that we have a doctor in this setup, and a doc is anyway a convenient scum claim. I don't think BM is a good lynch today, but let's not forget that he is in no way a cleared pro-town role.

when I know the scum would be motivated to set up power role mislynches if they're going to have any chance at winning this game.

[Setael]

Made time to reread farside and pete d. I think I wrote them both off too easily.

Farside:

votes ckd after Bookitty lynch saying “I didn't care for his pressure vote on BooKitty and then unvotes because he doesn't trust Lowell.” Stays on ckd all day until mos supposedly convinces her that Porochaz and I are distancing from each other. Then says:

You seem certain she is scum andthe case against her is overwhelming. I see no reason why not to vote against her except my gut. For once I will go against my gut and go by the evidence.
unvote: vote: Satael

This is the post when farside voted for ckd:

Farside, you were convinced he was scum just a moment ago. Hammer him and let's be done with this monkey business.

I am onboard with this vote. I made the case awhile ago on CDK. Porochaz is still on my scum list after today.

unvote: vote: curiouskarmadog

After ABR's post, farside really had no choice but to vote ckd so she easily could be scum who didn't want the wagon to succeed, but had no choice. She points out that she had made a case on him earlier which could be scum wanting a good reason to be joining the wagon, rather than just following ABR.

At the beginning of today, the only 2 she listed as suspicious were Porochaz and I. About me:

Satael: This one is more due to the comment she made yesterday. She stated why would no one have died a second night in a row. I think it was possible because the person who was scum didnt send in the info. I recall that Satael took over a role of a person who really hadn't been around. She seemed bent to push the Volkan vote away from Porochaz and now her comment Post 750 seems farfetching to me.

I find it odd that she didn't state this yesterday if that's what she thinks. Almost feels like during mafia night talk they said "Porochaz and Setael will be the easiest lynches today and this is why" and she just repeated it all in this post.

There is just too much I want to say about this. I'm giving just a little leway (very little). If Lowell or DP do not turn out not to be scum I'm seriously thinking you are lying just to protect yourself from another lynch.

Unvote: vote: Lowell

As I've stated before, this quote made it look as though farside knows Lowell and/or DP would come up town, which she could then use to cast suspicion on me. Due to the Lowell vote, he's more likely the one that would come up town, so farside is more likely to be scum with DP than lowell if there are still 2.

Farside has said several times that scum would not have bussed bookitty – would have gone for a no lynch. Scum obviously would want us to think that. The main thing making me doubt that farside is scum is I don’t think scum would be so vocally against my claim – they’d know I’m telling the truth and would focus more on mislynching a townie than at doubting me like farside has.

Pete d:

How 'bout you go back and read abit. Only then will you find out that I was about to vote him but I wanted to see his PBPA he told us about.

(shrug) Those posts are really ambiguous. unvote.

This post could definitely be the godfather instructing a scum buddy to lay off, or at least to make a better case. Pete d's unvote here is odd - if there was no relationship there, I don't think he'd have unvoted.

Pete D then defends DP against jordan’s attack in his 6th post. Could definitely see DP and Pete D as scum buddies.

Has BM finished his analysis' yet?

The answer is obviously no. There is no reason to ask this question. vote: Nekka

Weird reason to vote nekka. Possibly making up for what was a fishy unvote earlier.

Ah. Well, apparently nobody else wanted to vote Nekka, and I'm not so sure about ckd anymore. Regardless, something needed to happen, the game was dragging, so I joined the BM wagon in preference to the Jordan wagon.

Now that Nekka and ckd have both cardflipped scum, this post is very incriminating. Giving up his nekka case because nobody else wanted to vote him and saying "I'm not so sure about ckd anymore" without giving reason both look much more like scum who's been distancing from both and is perfectly happy to drop the cases. I don't think a townie would've let up so easily.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I was one of the first people to seriously go after Nekka, which I did as soon as I replaced in. I was the third vote on the bookitty wagon, and voted ckd early on day 2 when I could just as easily have gone with Setael.

Seems like his motivation for all those actions was to be able to point back to it later.

I hadn't really considered this before reading him in isolation, but now I think it's possible Bookitty was just distancing from pete d - maybe hoping to bus him for town points. ABR didn't buy the case and it ended up in a Bookitty quick lynch.

He then hammers vollkan without giving reason. Scummy. Though there's reason to think it's any of the 4 possibile players, after rereading I'm actually thinking pete d is the most likely.

unvote, vote: Pete d

[Setael]

Just realized another strike against pete d.

unvote need to reread to decide between Lowell and farside

What about DP? Do you have a reason for auto assuming it's not DP?

[Setael]

Why did you quote my whole post like that? No reason to lengthen the thread like that unless you're going to insert your comments within mine or something.

Also, that's a pretty thorough and simple dismissal of my case on pete d. You did read it, right? Did you think all my points were totally invalid?

[Setael]

ok, but does it make sense that Pete D would drop his cases so easily if he was town? All your talking about is how much they interacted.

I'll repeat here what I think is scummiest about his interaction with both nekka and ckd:

Ah. Well, apparently nobody else wanted to vote Nekka, and I'm not so sure about ckd anymore. Regardless, something needed to happen, the game was dragging, so I joined the BM wagon in preference to the Jordan wagon.

Now that Nekka and ckd have both cardflipped scum, this post is very incriminating. Giving up his nekka case because nobody else wanted to vote him and saying "I'm not so sure about ckd anymore" without giving reason both look much more like scum who's been distancing from both and is perfectly happy to drop the cases. I don't think a townie would've let up so easily.

[Setael]

see post 750

[Setael]

How 'bout you go back and read abit. Only then will you find out that I was about to vote him but I wanted to see his PBPA he told us about.

(shrug) Those posts are really ambiguous. unvote.

This post could definitely be the godfather instructing a scum buddy to lay off, or at least to make a better case. Pete d's unvote here is odd - if there was no relationship there, I don't think he'd have unvoted.

Pete, why did you unvote there?

[Setael]

lowell, what do you think about pete d?

[Setael]

I guess my question should've been "what do you think of the case i just presented on pete d?"

[Setael]

...I suggest you go for Lowell or DP at this point.

Why not pete d, farside? Do you really think BOTH scum would jump on you like that and basically follow each other? You said yourself if you were to come up town, it would point the finger at both of them. Do you think the last 2 scum would want to link together like that at this point?

That statement kind of made me wonder if it's farside and pete d.

@DP: What do you think of pete d? I notice you haven't mentioned him at all since I claimed.

[Setael]

Shanba, do you think it's BOTH Lowell and pete d? And if so, do you think pete d would've joined the Lowell wagon the way he did?

[Setael]

I agree. I think pete d is scum and lowell is town.

DP is the most likely partner for pete d imo.

[Setael]

Texas is plagued with disease. I should have warned you not to go there.

[Setael]

We do need BM to be more active. When it goes to night, we need to know he's paying attention since if he doesn't protect me and I'm NKd we need to know he didn't protect me because he's scum, not because he's just inactive and useless.

BM, if you're town, you're likely tonight's NK target now that the cop is out. It would help if you'd give as much input as possible now since you likely won't be around tomorrow.

[Setael]

It could be any of the 4. I'd probably hammer any one of them at this point.

[Setael]

I feel like I have pushed for the one(s) I prefer, which are pete d and DP. We don't seem to be coming to a consensus, in which case I'm willing to hammer any of the 4.

[Setael]

I'm the cop. streeflo had an innocent on you MoS and had gotten an innocent on Setael1 N2 (just before I was vigged by vollkan). I replaced in and last night got an innocent on Porochaz. BM is a claimed doc and Shanba is a confirmed mason so that leaves farside22, Lowell, Dragon Phoenix and pete d as possible scums.

Tonight we'll know if BM was telling the truth or not.

We'd like your opinion on those 4. We likely have 2 scums left since there appears to be no SK.

[Setael]

True to my word, I'm willing to hammer farside. I really didn't like the "I'm not scum because I wouldn't have killed ABR" argument and looking back at her, she joined the scum wagons late when there was really no choice left. She's at -2 so it'll take me and one other.

No one should hammer until BM checks in and lets us know he's active enough/has time to protect me tonight. Otherwise we risk me dying tonight and mislynching him tomorrow.

BM, chime in anytime.

[Setael]

So I guess now we wait and hope the game doesn't die until BM can be active enough to participate.

Someone prod me when he has a chance to look at the game.

[Setael]

It appears BM is in a position to be active enough to test his claim tonight. I'm putting Farside at -1 and someone else can hammer. Hopefully I'll get an investigation tonight, even if it means we lose our doc. If I die tonight, lynch BM tomorrow.

unvote, vote: Farside

[Setael]

I got an innocent on pete d.

Either I should've stuck to my instincts that the last 2 were lowell and DP, or it's one of them with BM.

If BM really is a doc, I'm surprised the mafia didn't kill him, since they can't afford me to be getting investigation results. I suppose there's a chance the mafia is hoping we'll see this as proof he's lying and mislynch him today. I guess the other possibility is they were hoping they could get me mislynched today on the grounds of scum don't seem too worried about me getting investigation results. Either way, I don't really see how the town can lose this game at this point. If I get mislynched, all those I've cleared are confirmed and there are too many to be NK'd off before end game. Am I missing something?

[Setael]

I'd like to think if Lowell were town, he'd be more active than this.

vote: Lowell

[Setael]

I disagree that this game was balanced toward the town from the start. If the mafia would've sent in NKs N1 and N2, they'd have won. That's what you get for trusting BM to be active enough to send in your kills.

Credit to ABR and everyone who lynched Bookitty. I wasn't seeing it (I can't read Bookitty) and if the godfather hadn't gone down early, I also think it would've ended differently.