Mini Normal 1775 END!

[texcat]

/confirm

[texcat]

Last time I played with Expedience, I remember voting for that feather in his cap, and I'm tempted to do it again. But instead I'll vote for another piece of ridiculous head apparel.

VOTE: Boonskiies

[texcat]

For reactions.

Do you think it's alignment indicative?

Good enough for my first vote at the very least.
Why did you change your RVS vote to sheep an RVS vote?
If you wanted a wagon you'd have done that on your very first vote.

Yep. Good enough for a first vote. Not good enough for Knight to have to defend. Plus Knight's defense stinks. For reactions, really?

[texcat]

Yep. Good enough for a first vote. Not good enough for Knight to have to defend. Plus Knight's defense stinks. For reactions, really?

Sakura's reason was because I sheeped an RVS vote. You agree that's scummy?

Also, seriously - why the fuck else would I sheep an RVS vote that was clearly going nowhere while blatantly saying I was shamelessly sheeping it if not for reactions?

JFC you guys lack critical thinking skills.

I had a different understanding of the reason for Sakura's vote. I don't believe that it was just for sheeping.

I didn't say that it was scummy, I said that it was good enough for a first vote, while at the same time not good enough to bother defending against. It certainly

might

be scummy, but your continued poor defense

does

look scummy.

[texcat]

VOTE: knightmare
Why RVS twice?

The expressed reason was not for sheeping. I can read.

[texcat]

VOTE: Almost50

He's jumped onto every wagon, putting Knight at L-2 and Lowell at L-2, voting Sayaka in between, and now getting scum vibes from Boon. Something seems particularly wrong about putting Knight at L-2 and then putting his accuser, Lowell, at L-2.

[texcat]

L-2 is not the important factor. It's jumping on every wagon that looks scummy to me.

No new info? Hmmm...wasn't I the one who pointed out that Sakura's reason for voting you wasn't sheeping.

I am seeing some possible connections between people, but without any flips they aren't worth very much.

[texcat]

And I have still have a scum lean on you, Knight, because of your defensiveness. But I do realize that it may be a play style and am willing to give you some leeway.

[texcat]

I am sympathetic with Lowell and his case on you. Sakura bothers me for two reasons. First her unvote when you attracted the wagon. This does not seem particularly bad though. It was basically an RVS wagon that took off. I can understand her unvote. Second is that she never attracted the Almost50 vote. This is what I was referring to when I said connections that don't mean anything without a flip. If Almost50 flips scum, Sakura would definitely get a scum nod.

[texcat]

Almost50 flipping town wouldn't really affect my read on Sakura. It would just mean that a flailing townie didn't vote her.

[texcat]

I do see the difference. And tunneling someone is generally not a townie indication. Even if you are scum, there have to be others and I hope that Lowell starts looking for them.

[texcat]

A50 is only flailing if he flips town. Much like we are all flailing. And the Sakura wagon was the only one he missed.

[texcat]

This is exactly the problem with making connections without flips.

[texcat]

Basically Texcat is lining up almost50 slot with sakura's then saying she would still push sakura after a town flip. This seems extremely suss to me as she early she was sheeping sakura's reasoning and pushing it. Also her entire case revolves around sakura being scum buddies with almost 50 yet she would continue pushing sakura despite supporting her actions and then she self defeats her first point.

I'm still catching up from overnight, but want to answer this straight away. None of this is correct. I probably was not as clear as I needed to be, or else you grossly mis-read. Let me re-state.

The case on Almost50 is that he votes everything. He's jumped on any new wagon that wanders by.

There is no case on Sakura. I only commented on her because Knight specifically asked me about her. And yes, if A50 flips scum, it might change my view on Sakura, but that's really neither here not there at this point.

[texcat]

Sakura, I think you are confusing town unity with scum jumping on convenient wagons. I see a lot of people saying that they are voting for reactions, but I don't see anyone talking about what the reactions actually told them. One of the reactions that I look for is to see who is willing to jump on any wagon. I think that's a scum trait. And A50 has jumped, although I think ChilledTea may have just exceeded him in number of jumps back and forth.

[texcat]

It looks to me like he joined the wagon in 162, just to join the wagon. He never explains that he thinks Lowell is scum, he just wants a big wagon for the pressure. I don't think randomly applying pressure is a town trait. Nor do I think it builds town unity.

[texcat]

CT does appear to be voting anything that moves, and I could easily move my vote there. (I think I mentioned that above.) The amount of vote changes is not the problem. It's the bandwagoning that I object to.
A50's reads. I see his list. Not much there to comment on. He doesn't really explain why anyone is where they are on his list. In 152 he says good vote, bad vote, but doesn't comment any further. His only votes have been pressure to sort people out.

[texcat]

It looks to me like he joined the wagon in 162, just to join the wagon. He never explains that he thinks Lowell is scum, he just wants a big wagon for the pressure. I don't think randomly applying pressure is a town trait. Nor do I think it builds town unity.

So you call good votes on ppl when you dont scumread them?
I don't think he was "randomly" applying pressure, look at his ISO again.

I certainly don't, but it looks to me like A50 does. Did he ever say why he thought Lowell might be scum? I don't think he said that Lowell was scum at all until his reads post at 313 and then doesn't explain it. Perhaps it's not "random", but it's hard to tell from here.

[texcat]

I really do not like Madonna's putting Lowell at L-1 and now claiming that she did it just to call a bluff. Especially when we've been warned that Boon has a hammer that's as quick as Ika's. I can't imagine that Madonna and Lowell could possibly be teammates as ChilledTea thinks, but I do think that one of them is likely scum.

Pedit: Exp??

[texcat]

@madonna: is it your opinion that the wagon was a serious attempt to end d1 quickly?

This is a weird question and so is every instance where players in this game talk about serious votes. This is for everyone:

every vote, even in RVS, should be counted as a serious vote,

because you should absolutely always vote how you are feeling. If a player is voting someone, the voter is saying, "I want this person lynched," not, "No feelings or beliefs behind this." I can accept votes that okay a lynch on a lukewarm read, but only if we are nearing deadline and the voter does not have a better, stronger read on someone else. No one should be saying that their vote is not serious, and if they are, maybe consider voting them to help make them realize what a vote means.

I do not think a wagon on knightmare was an attempt to end the day early. I think it was something which could lead to ending the day, but if the mafia were on a mislynch, it was for the sake of a mislynch, not a day ending move.

VOTE: Madonna

I agree that every vote counts, especially L-1 votes. This seems to go against her claim that her vote was a bluff.

[texcat]

I think expedience is town btw. His aggression towards Madonna seemed like it came from town. Texcat's sheep vote on Madonna where she quoted something Sakura had already pointed out I didn't like.

This is crap. I pointed out why I was voting Madonna. Madonna had clearly contradicted herself, and I found the quotes to prove it. Why is that scummy? Scummy is jumping on the wagon just because it's a wagon. (See posts below.)

I didn't like lowell much on day 1. He needs to contribute a lot more. I can get a clearer read on him.

All he did was "lynch this guy".

Incidentally Madonna read Lowell as town. So there was no manipulation involved there. Not saying that makes Lowell town, but I will give him a chance. Let him come and put forward his ideas regarding the game.

At the moment my vote would be on either texcat or goodlordwill. Since texcat already has a vote on her, I will join the wagon.

VOTE: texcat

My thoughts are that madonna was a decent wagon that didn't work out. If we're voting texcat I'm game.

VOTE: texcat

VOTE: Lowell

[texcat]

So?

[texcat]

OK. It came when I was on. And yeah, it appears I was here later than Sakura. I think that showing your thoughts and reasons for a vote is a townie thing to do, even if they are a repeat. You don't think my reasons were bad, just that they were the same as Sakura's. I still think that's carp.

[texcat]

I posted in 565 that I did not think that L-1 was an appropriate place for a bluff vote. Then I iso'd Madonna and found the contradiction, posted it, and voted in 574. I didn't notice your post when I went back, because I was looking at Madonna in iso.

[texcat]

And I'm not worried over having done townie things, I was trying to point out the difference between voting with a reason and voting because there is a wagon. Both Lowell and CT have said that they voted me because there was already a vote on me. Lowell doesn't explain any reason whatsoever.


PEDIT: Yes, I did read. But obviously I didn't remember it specifically.

[texcat]

What struck me first was what I stated in 565 that L-1 was not a good place to be bluffing. I went back to look at Madonna again before voting.

[texcat]

I would go back and repeat the reasons that others have given for why Lowell is scummy, but don't feel like doing all the research right now. Post 615 is scummy enough just by itself for a vote.

[texcat]

@chilledtea
Why did you change your vote on texcat to lowell? You are building a case on Texcat (post 629) and then you suddenly shifted to lowell. Why is lowell scummy to you and why did you drop your case on tex and do nothing to push lowell after dropping it?

All of this happened a few hours ago.

The vote change was mostly because texcat was on L-4 at the time and seemed intent on defending herself. Lowell was nowhere to be seen. So I voted lowell. I mean I indicate as such by calling it vote parking.

I realize that Garmr already pursued this, but this post just stands out to me as scum yelling, "I'm just going for an easy lynch, I don't care who actually gets the rope."


As to Lowell's theory, it is just too far-fetched to be believable.
First he theorizes that town has a roleblocker. I find this thin to begin with. It's certainly possible that town has a roleblocker, but this is a role that I associate more with scum than with town.
Then he theorizes that I was roleblocked. Out of all the people in this game, I'm not sure why I would be the choice for a town roleblock.
AND that my being roleblocked was the reason for no NK.
He totally ignores the more likely possibility that town has a doc or a jailkeeper to account for the lack of NK. And why propose such a wacky theory? Is he fishing for the doc or jailkeeper to claim?

[texcat]

I agree with Lowell about not seeing the link within Garmr and Texcat. Seems like a stretch from scum. I want to town read chilled, but I may be wrong about that. I've been thinking texcat is a scumfuck for a long time, especially right before Madonna got lynched, and Garmr I always think is scummy when he speaks. All this being said texcat should be lynched, haha. I want to figure out chilled and solidify what I feel on Garmr, and I think Tex is scum! Tex flipping scum, I would no longer think chilled is! Although, I just thought about a potential chilled/Garmr scum team...care of them if they are doing some kind of scum theater. Chilled pushing hard on Garmr yet not voting him is super suspish. Super suspish indeed.

VOTE: texcat

That's 4.

Garmr, if you and texcat are scum together, bus your buddy now please. Texcat is scum, we can lynch you tomorrow instead of today, okay? See, if you think about it, I'm actually protecting you.

Chilled, if texcat flips town, I'm coming hard after you tomorrow.

First you say that you don't see a link, then you do? Or are you just trying to create one?

[texcat]

@Texcat:
Can you explain why exactly you're voting Lowell instead of chilledtea? In 617 you're telling ct specifically that his post is "crap", and then you cite two posts (consecutive) that basically suggest that ct and lowell are both hopping aboard the texcat wagon.

With that in mind, what made you sufficiently more suspicious of Lowell that you wanted to vote him instead of ct? It wouldn't be the fact that Lowell had a wagon yesterday, would it? As you say yourself, "Scummy is jumping on the wagon just because it's a wagon".

PS You say in 628 "Lowell doesn't explain any reason whatsoever". But for the most part neither does ct. The only additional vote-related commentary ct gives at the time is that he'd be cool with you or GLW. That's really not much.

PPS I'll be honest: I'm not high on Lowell OR ct right now. But I really struggle to see where YOU are seeing a difference, other than "Lowell has attracted more votes".

You are correct. ChilledTea and Lowell are at the top of my scum list. I can't vote for both of them, much as I'd like to. I picked Lowell primarily because he was the lynch candidate saved by Madonna. ChilledTea hammered in the middle of the night before Madonna had a chance to claim. I find that scummy. And I think that was to protect scum-mate Lowell.

[texcat]

I'm struggling to see your logic here.

1) In your mind, ChilledTea was explicitly acting scummy, especially given the "middle of the night" bit.
2) Madonna (town) saved Lowell from a lynch (in fact she explicitly acted to save him, though I certainly don't think she wanted to replace him).

How do these facts, in your own mind, lead you to think that Lowell is scummier than ChilledTea?


PS To clarify, here's where I am mentally. You're in a difficult situation as a lynch candidate, and I'm trying to decide if you're:

1) Looking for the easiest target (clearly Lowell, since he nearly got lynched on D1)
2) Looking for the honestly best scum read

#1 would be scum behavior (almost textbook). #2 would be town behavior. Convince me that you're at #2, because your responses are suggesting #1 instead.

I'm not sure I'm going to be any help. CT and Lowell are just about equal in my book. Your 2) above, about Madonna saving Lowell, is confusing to me. I may have said that Madonna saved Lowell, but I did not mean that Madonna intentionally or actively saved him, (although as you pointed out, she did). A50 speculated above that Madonna would have been lynched even if she had time to claim. I'm not so sure.

To your PS. To clarify, I first look for the honestly best scum read. And I found 2. Between those 2, I picked the one that is perhaps the easier target. I think they are both scum. I'd be happy to lynch both of them. Are you thinking that only one of them is scum?

So, at least let's combine our top 3 scum reads. Each and everyone should nominate 3 players for the lynch. This way -at least- we see who is reading whom as scum. The person with more suspicion on them gets lynched, but then if they flip we know who pushed them rather than who went for it out of boredom and frustration.

I've given my top 2. The third spot would go to perhaps Boonskiies who isn't reading, but is voting me anyway. Who first says he doesn't see any link between Garmr and me, but still threatens Garmr with the link. The third spot might go to Expedience or Sayaka Maizono for mostly omgus reasons.

And continuing my reads down the ladder gives us,
I was never sold on Knightmare as town and Toasty hasn't done anything to improve that slot. And I have no clue on the Goodlordwill slot. I was leaning townier on A50 after his vote with explanation of reasons for Lowell, but then his jump onto Madonna has made me start doubting him again.

[texcat]

Truly endless salt.

Yes, yes you are lol. Post 771 Show hints of it.

Huh? I don't understand this.

[texcat]

@smith:
May you vote Lowell, please? His flip should help you solidify or reverse your read on texcat. They can't be scum together, can they?

@chilled:
Likewise.

Lowell did a semi-soft claim. Even if I vote him I want it to be so that there is no hammer.

He is also V/LA at the moment. Lets wait a bit for him.

I thought he denied the claim later?

Sakura, Sakaya, texcat.

This is where I am, except I add chilled there. One of Tex/chilled is scum. Sakura/Sayaka I see potential scum, but I really don't have a case I feel I should push off of over Tex/chilled.

Where did this scum read of Sayaka come from? I don't think you've even mentioned her before.

[texcat]

LOL. Have you read this page thoroughly?

[texcat]

My mafia theory suggests one scum in each of the following groups (I believe that no matter the playstyle, scum teams will try to "fill the void" of these spots and adapt accordingly. Additionally, I find that most scum teams have at least one member they are willing to lynch if they need to in order to establish town cred or protect themselves (the scapegoat). Because we have more people taking the backseat I think there is a strong chance that two of the scum team are trying to coast by, which makes the sheep/lurker groups better targets for a lynch.

What an intriguing theory. I am not sure how much scum teams are able to alter their playstyle to fill the void. Although thinking back on old games, there might be some truth in it. But having a different playstyle as scum has always been a red flag, and I thought most players tried to maintain their same style. Rather than trying to fill the void, I think it's more likely that a randomly drawn scum team will just naturally have players with styles that are randomly divided.


Boonskiies has posted quite a few posts, but only in response to someone attacking him. And they are too full of expletives to read or make sense of.

Almost50, where are you going with the top 3 candidates lists?

[texcat]

I do have intent to hammer, but will not do so before Boon comes back.

[texcat]

Seriously, fuck this game. You guys are lynching a PR. I fucking jailed Toasty last night. I thought I blocked the kill until he started lying.

Can you explain why you picked Toasty to jail? Seems an unlikely pick to me, since Knight had just been replaced and Toasty hadn't said anything yet.

[texcat]

Not obvious to me. Can you explain?

[texcat]

VOTE: Boonskiies

[texcat]

My vote remains on Boon. I'm a little skeptical of the vengeful claim, but remain convinced that Boon's claim is garbage.

Earlier toDay, Lowell had a cockamamie theory about the lack of a NK being because I was roleblocked, and he voted me. Boon followed him. Doesn't make sense to me. If Boon had truly jailkept last night, he would know a couple of reasons why there was no NK, but he never questions Lowell about it, he just votes me.

[texcat]

Or do you think that Boon would/should have been aggressively questioning Lowell's theory there? If so, why?

I would have certainly have questioned the theory, aggressively or not. If I'm a doc or jk or roleblocker, and there's no NK, my first assumption is going to be that I'm responsible, and I'd question anyone else who tried to take credit. Remember this is a mini game, how many roles to stop the NK do you imagine we have?

[texcat]

Why is Boon still alive?

[texcat]

VOTE: Lowell

I still need to reread, and look at CT's ISO, as he suggested.

[texcat]

Toasty, Can you explain your town read of Dierfire for me?

[texcat]

I've had a bit of a reread of yesterDay. I think Garmr was the target of the NK and protected by ChilledTea. CT seemed to think otherwise. I think I still think Lowell is scum, but Exp looked bad yesterDay and his posts toDay look worse.

VOTE: Expedience L-2

[texcat]

I'm not at all sure that duplication is a bad thing. I'm not wild about the group idea. If we only have 1 vig left, and it's Bear, I'd like him to be able to target outside his group.

[texcat]

Oops. No idea how I responded to the wrong game. Damned tablet.

[texcat]

Still happy with my vote on expedience here.

[texcat]

Sorry, I'm still just as happy as can be with my vote on Expedience. But I would also be happy to go back to Lowell.

Sakura, can you explain why you have Expedience and Lowell so high up on your list?

[texcat]

Sorry, I'm still just as happy as can be with my vote on Expedience. But I would also be happy to go back to Lowell.

Sakura, can you explain why you have Expedience and Lowell so high up on your list?

Expedience posting when the whole CC thing came down felt towny (it felt genuine that he didnt expect a counter claim)
I liked Lowell's 1296 even tho i disagree with the conclusion.

It looks to me like he knew Boon was going down and wanted to make sure scum got something out of it by insisting on a counterclaim. Did his questioning/threatening you about your vengeful claim toDay also look towny to you?

[texcat]

I keep getting prodded. Sorry.

Nothing new here. Are we just waiting until the deadline on Tuesday to consolidate?

[texcat]

But actually, my reads remain unchanged ever since a small amount content ago.

Is this it?

I think Garmr is bussing Boonskiies here.

As far as other scum, I would say maybe Maestro / texcat / Almost50. That's really all I can see.

---

Hmm. I think I'm gonna do a voting analysis today.

@Expedience wagon: what would expedience scum gain from hard-defending then voting for boon?

I thought I already explained my theory. At first I think Exp thought he could save Boon and he went hard after Sakura. Even after her vengeful claim, he was advocating for her lynch.

Even if you think Boonskiies is scum

(he's not)

, voting Sakura still gets Boonskiies dead if Sakura is town. The converse does not apply.

His primary defense of Boons was that he was a un-cc'd PR, but when Sakura claimed he didn't hesitate to vote her. (Some un-cc'd PRs are town and some aren't?) It began to look like Boon was going down anyway, and that's when Exp started yelling in large letters for the counterclaim. Scum did not want to lose Boon without getting something in return. After ChilledTea counterclaimed, Exp's defense was gone and he was forced to vote Boon.

[texcat]

+1 on garmr. If you're town help the town. If you're scum self hammer and let's move on to the next day.

Or you could just hammer. Didn't you start this Day voting for Exp? Might as well end it that way too.

[texcat]

I was town reading Garmr, but the fact is that ChilledTea jailed him on N1 and there was no NK. Either he was the target of scum, or he is scum.

[texcat]

VOTE: Lowell
I still think Garmr was the target of the kill.

[texcat]

Riabi, do you have any comment on the Lowell wagon? If you think that Toasty's points are so telling, do you wonder why Toasty didn't vote?

[texcat]

CT's action makes Garmr WAY more likely than random chance. If we presume it's a 10v3 setup, there are 2 mafia left among 8 players, so random chance is 25%. But the CT jail action means Garmr is >50% wolf (off the top of my head, I think it's 12 / 23, or 52%, but I could be off). So that seems like a pretty decent likelihood, although I still want to dig around and see what I think of the dead legacy cases against Garmr first.

The calculation by mhsmith0 is correct: if chilledtea made an action at random, Garmr would be 11/23 to be Mafia given the lack of a kill, which does exceed random chance by quite a bit.

I don't think a mafia would want to point out these statistics to town. This is just too pro town. I don't think either mhsmith0 nor Dierfire are mafia.

Doesn't that depend on whether Garmr is town or scum? Couldn't scum use numbers to try to get a town Garmr lynched?

[texcat]

Are there other reasons to think Garmr is scum? I need to go back and look at him, but am hoping someone can help.

The case on Lowell is that scum Boonskies protected him on Day 1 when Lowell got all the way to L-1.

Spoiler: Boon protects Lowell

I'm null on Lowell.

Hey I found one.

VOTE: mhsmith

In ISO, this guy reads a little too "unfrozen caveman lawyer" for my liking. A lot of "I was under the impression..." and "Am I off-base about..."s, like he's asking permission to play the way he wants. Also he's weirdly sensitive about pushing people to L-2. Which, on D1 especially, is a dumb thing to be sensitive about.

Also, boon is town. Am I persuaded of this just because of his obnoxious multi-posts? Yes, yes I am.

This Lowell wagon makes me uneasy...

Lowell just seems like that typical fall guy who gets lynched for no real reasons Day 1. His playstyle looks like an easy wagon, and I just feel it's scum driven.

I mean, I'm not town reading Lowell. I don't like Day 1's. Common Boon knowledge. I have pushed my case on the lynch I want.

I'm not going to hammer. I don't think Lowell is scum.

Texcat/Madonna and then one of almost/Sakura/Chilled is scum.

Then on Day 2, Lowell starts out with his odd theory that I was roleblocked scum. The last paragraph below sure looks like he was trying to draw out a claim.

Lowell are you trying to draw out a claim?

Honestly? Yes, I guess? Now that I'm thinking about it maybe it's not a good idea.

And my theory, btw, is that tex makes sense as a person to roleblock. He was cagey on D1, but not TOO obvious a target that scum would avoid having him make the kill. That, plus his being suspiciously MIA today make me think someone blocked him.

If no one wants to claim this, that's fine, but if said person ends up dead this will be pointlessly lost information. But yeah, if it were me, I'd be jumping up and down taking credit for blocking a NK. It'd be worth a 1 for 1 trade, esp given the blocked nightkill. But whatever.

Then Lowell tries to protect Boon before he was lynched Day 2.

I think boon is town, gang.

VOTE: sakura

I won't be happy until I've voted everyone! I don't have a case here, other than I believe boon and have strong townvibes on exp. So sure let's make this happen.

[texcat]

mhsmith, What is your opinion of Lowell?

[texcat]

Just want to throw out there this morning, this argument between Garmr and Lowell I feel is somewhat coordinated and I feel like those 2 are the most likely scum team

If I was scum with lowell I would of jumped on to madonna instead of trying to keep the lowell wagon afloat.

WIFOM. Maybe you would, maybe you'd bus. Unless you have a meta that supports your claim, then this justification is useless to me.

Riabi, your vote is on mhsmith, isn't it? Do you think Garmr and Lowell can both be scum?

[texcat]

Or Lowell, perhaps!