Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[Elias_the_thief]

we should lynch the ones not here because a) eliminates useless townies or b) might be mafia so its a win-win

Wow, all the dumb things in that post..

a) it'd been an hour and a half since the thread opens, relax...
b)lynching townies is a bad thing. unless your mafia. figured that one was kinda obvious.
c) lynching people before they can incriminate themselves is a bad thing
d) however, incriminating yourself like I feel you just did is rather amusing.

Vote: Originality

Might be my last post for a few days, moving into school tomorrow morn.[/b]

I agree with everything in this post. To suggest lynching someone because theyre lurking is ridiculous all on its own. Why in the world would you want to have them lynched when they could just as easily be replaced, dealing with the lurking problem without lynching a player with a completely unknown alignement? Further, you can hardly classify what Lucien and Karen are doing as lurking. The thread hasnt even been open a day. Geez. That being said, I'm quite happy to put a little pressure on you.

vote: originality

. that should be -3.

[Elias_the_thief]

And those of you accusing me to be scum. i did not bandwaggon anything.

There is nothing wrong with bandwagoning.

it was a well-reasoned vote.

I strongly disagree.

and i did not contradict myself, i understood my accuser's point that it was too early and agreed. but i hadnt any better voting to do, so i kept on lucienne.

Alright. What you did really wasnt too strong of a a scumtell. Its just as much a newbie tell as anything, and as far as i can tell this is one of your first games (i looked for other games with you in them and couldnt find any).
Therefore,

unvote

. I suppose I should be turning my attention elsewhere (for now).

Okay.

1) Originality looks BAD! Contradiction, eager to lynch, LEAPS to defence. Almost worth a -2 vote.

2) If Originality is scum I'd be expecting a coach in there. But everyone looked clean.

3)

Vote: orginality

I just want to see what pops up scum should jump on him

Oman in his last post clearly seemed to think that Originality got to -2...So why does he say that Originality is

almost

worth a -2 vote, yet does it anyways? Hmm. Not to mention his vote looks opportunistic.

vote: Oman

.

[Elias_the_thief]

...
thats ridiculous...
whatever. I still dont like your post, since you said it was almost worth a -2 vote, then voted (a vote you show you believed to be -2)

[Elias_the_thief]

You're reaching.

Excuse me? It's page 3. That wierd comment combined with your post is the best we have right now.

[Elias_the_thief]

and by "your post" I meant the white text portion.

[Elias_the_thief]

I do think if anyone was a townie setting a 'quicklynch' trap it was Elias since as soon as Oman got his vote on originality, Elias swtiches his vote to Oman, a more likely play than tiny white letters. Though the reasoning leaves a bit to be desired.

Oman in his last post clearly seemed to think that Originality got to -2...So why does he say that Originality is almost worth a -2 vote, yet does it anyways? Hmm. Not to mention his vote looks opportunistic. vote: Oman.

I'm confused by the term 'quicklynch trap'. Are you implying that I was trying to set up a quicklynch? I would attempt to defend myself, but I'm not really sure what I'm being accused of.

[Elias_the_thief]

1. Claims without pressure:

Um, no scum here. Just a plain old townie.

Well done! A vanillia townie claim page three is certaintly what town would do.

Its true that making an early claim is a bad move by town, but what exactly makes it a scumtell?

[Elias_the_thief]

Oman, you have not told me why it is a scumtell. You have told me why a good townie wouldnt do it, which I already know. The thing is, it would benefit scum, but it doesnt make sense if scum is doing it. They would already know that they are scum, what do they gain from claiming prematurely?

Sorry if this seems a bit offtopic. I've been pondering this apparently accepted scum tell for a while and I seriously doubt its value.

[Elias_the_thief]

Wow, Dr. Blackstrike, your play is VERY odd. I dont know what to think of it, as I've never really seen it before. An Fos should suffice for now.

[Elias_the_thief]

Also, I will not be here Friday, Saturday, or Sunday. Sorry for the inconvenience.

[Elias_the_thief]

He has already claimed. He can be no more of a liability, I think, unless he goes as far as to elaborate on his claim, and even then, not much more harm can be done then what he already has done.

[Elias_the_thief]

Im considering jumping on the VP wagon, though his behavior reminds me of a game I was in with him before. Any chance of a

votecount

?

[Elias_the_thief]

Im back, but I need to get caught up. A post is coming tonight.

[Elias_the_thief]

Dr. B, is your claimed powerrole one that you can prove, if you were left alive tonight?

Um, why do you want to know this? Are you deciding whether you want to keep him alive? FOS: dybeck.

[Elias_the_thief]

I didnt ask if you were trying to. I asked if you were deciding whether or not you wanted to, ie, whether you wanted to kill him. Honestly, how does knowing whether or not he provable help the town? As far as I see, it can only improve the chances of him getting NKed if he says he is.

[Elias_the_thief]

But what is the point in asking this question? He's not even that seriously suspicious...At this point we want him to STOP giving us info, not start giving us more. The more info that comes from him day 1, the more it helps the mafia.

[Elias_the_thief]

Excuse me? This is not true at all Oman. When we are talking about power role info? Imagine he is a doc. The town knowing this essentially screws them over since the mafia knows he too, and BOOM were down a doc. Or imagine that we dont have a doc, and that it is a cop. This means that the mafia knows and can kill our cop. Or even in the scenario where it is a vanilla townie, the info lets the mafia know that the player is vanilla, giving them better chances of hitting power role on the NK. Role info really hurts towns day 1. Day 2 or 3, its useful. I wholeheartedly disagree with getting role info on day 1.

[Elias_the_thief]

Your both wrong

He's not even that seriously suspicious

You've got to be kidding me. He's said that he's playing very scummy so that the mafia won't NK him. How can you get more serious than this? It basically excuses his previous scummy behavior and gives a reason for not getting NK'd.

Alright, you have a point. I exaggerated when I saw that question. I still see the question as very suspicious, quite blatant rolefishing. Basically, I think the question is just as, if not more, suspicious then Dr. B's behavior.

[Elias_the_thief]

you call that helping..? jesus, why is this like, the latest cool thing to do on the site nowadays? I freakin hate it.

[Elias_the_thief]

back, and rereading. content later, hopefully.

[Elias_the_thief]

Caught up to page 15. finishing the reread tomorrow.

[Elias_the_thief]

Elias pretty much lurked through D1 with a few posts of significance (including joining the originality page 1 bandwagon). And in D2 he has contributed zero, while still be active on site. I'm voting for him until he adds to the discussion.

hi shafted. I am currently weighed down by multiple games and I am not fully caught up yet. I have a life outside of mafiascum and I'm signed up for too many games, and trying to stay in all of them. I think I will be completely caught up at the end of the week. I dont plan to start making any special effort based on your vote, so I guess its an ok time to tell you youre wasting it, until the weekend, at least until some of my near-LYLO games are concluded.

[Elias_the_thief]

I see that no replacement was ever found for me. 2 of my games have ended and 1 was abandoned. I have also reread up to page 30. I'm willing to replace back into my old spot.

[Elias_the_thief]

I have to wait for approval from streetflo before posting anything.

[Elias_the_thief]

Shit shit shit. I had a huge post ligned up but my computer died. Don't worry, this isnt an excuse to get out of content. But it will be less content.

Alright. The AlyG claim? I believe it. Orig admitted to targetting CC, so it's pretty obvious Aly is telling the truth. On the other hand, I find Originality very unlikely. Firstly, I find Originality's argument that he had a gut feeling against carrot day 1, VERY unlikely, since he did not ONCE express any suspicions on CC. The bulk of Origs content is attacking lurkers..if he had suspicion of CC, wouldnt it make sense that he'd say so instead of attacking lurkers? The fact that he had other suspicions and went after lurkers makes me think that he is probably trying a little too hard to appear protown. Second, I find his claim that he killed on gut feeling night 1 very hard to believe. Even if it were his first game as vig, its certainly not his first on the site. I'm certain he knows that lynching on gut is bad for town, so why would he NK on gut? I just dont see why a protown vig would kill on so little...
Anyways, moving on, I find his claim that he had a gut feeling against CC even less likely when you look at this post (344) directly after night scene is revealed.

Uh... This is weird, because carrotcake was pretty quiet imo. I guess ima go with shaft.ed here, in that carrotcake must have scared someone enough into killing him... So AlyG would be a suspect, but i dont know if hes the only one carrotcake was after, so i will that, post in a min.

This definately doesnt sound like someone who had a gut feeling that he was scum. Also, there is this post (368):

I think this hasn't been brought up yet, but do we know for sure which death is mafia kill and which is the sk? I don't know if theres a set pattern here that a certain type of death will tell who killed who, so is there anything im missing here?

In this post, he 1) assumes there is an SK, not a vig, and 2) helps spread the opposite of his later claim by speculating about the SK's killing method. It seems very suspect.
So yeah. Orig is your SK, pretty sure he isnt a vig. His claim doesnt hold water.

vote: originality

[Elias_the_thief]

Also: I realize this is pretty much exclusively about orig and Aly, but I lost most of my original post and I dont want to retype anything else right now. So I posted the most important part.

[Elias_the_thief]

Thanks, Elias, and welcome back to the game.

Earlier in the discussion, we had talked about vig being a suicidal claim for a SK ... which is the main reason that some of us have been willing to entertain the vigOrig scenario as a possibility.

I strongly disagree with this argument. It's clearly wifom in nature. If the town think this, they accept him as vig. I would also say that vig is actually a pretty good claim for a caught SK. If town accepts him, he may even receive doc protection.

(1) He admitted to targetting CC, claimed vig, and supported AlyG's claim out of the gate. I would not expect any of this behavior from a SK, since it paints a huge target on his back for the mafia.

Assuming he's SK, he was caught. His options were to fight the claim, make a wierd claim, or claim vig. If town believes him, he might get doc protection, which obviously makes the vig claim better then fighting Alys claim.

(2) He has said that he is willing not to kill tonight. If we end up with two deaths, we will have confirmed that he's scum and we lynch him.

This ignores the fact that he can simply no kill as SK. Also, we could just lynch him now and ASSURE that there are no kills from a second party.

(3) If we lynch him tonight, it makes the Mafia's kill decision easier tonight with one less claimed power role on the table.

Maybe. But I think a kill of someone besides Orig would give us more info, though I wont say who (id rather not direct the scum).

So while I wholeheartedly agree with your suspicions, I don't think that an originality lynch is our best choice for today.

Alright. I disagree, though I'll repost my thoughts on the top 2 anyhow.

[Elias_the_thief]

Personally, I would've myself selected Vig, to protect myself from future troubles down the road that claiming an ability you dont actually have might cause. Claiming another killing role at least allows you to carry out the actions that the town asks of you. I'll agree with you however, that for now, killing off Orig may not be the best move, as smart scum would pick him off in the night. The problem I see with this strategy, is what happens if mafia

doesnt

kill him off? If mafia is counting on us to lynch him the next day, then we might have a problem. (also, doc & mafia will play a wifom game tonight anyhow).

I cant get it together tonight to post my opinions on Oman and Dybeck, mainly becuase the last few pages are very confusing. Both cases are spread out over a number of pages. Vollkan, would you be willing to lay out your complete case on Dybeck so far? Shaft.ed, could you do the same for Oman? I think it would help alot to have organized cases, and I believe you two are the leaders in respective wagons, and in activity.

[Elias_the_thief]

nah. you made me look like a hypocrit and undermined the relevance of my argument, but besides that, no harm done.

but seriously, yeah, we're cool.

[Elias_the_thief]

As if I'd let suspicion fall into me from my kill. I suspected carrotcake since the beginning, but didn't want to say anything D1 otherwise it would have been obvious who killed him last night. And for the record, yes it is my first game on the site.

I quite simply dont believe this. If you suspected him, theres not way you'd avoid mentioning it just so you can NK him. And even if you did, that seems very anti town (trying to get the kill without any discussion).

And those two posts I made were also to make seem as if I didn't know what was going on. Pretty routine if you ask me.

If you didnt want attention, why did you address those two (non)issues at all? No one else was talkgin about them.

By the way, if I was the SK I'd want the town to think that there was a vig, to not draw attention to the fact that there is an SK, duh.

wifom much?

I was just going on with the idea at the time, if I went HAY GUISE PRETTY SURE ITS NOT AN SK ITS A VIG it would totally mark me out for the scum.

Why would you say anything about it at all as vig? Theres no reason for a vig to go out of their way to cover their tracks when they could just avoid the issue.

[Elias_the_thief]

sorry about not addressing more recent stuff, I left my house mid post and wanted to finish that up. I might post again tonight, too.

[Elias_the_thief]

questions about dybeck case...

Now, the case:
1) Dybeck's weird

If shaft.ed is not the serial killer I will eat my hat.

His certainty here in going after one of the least scummy players here really looked odd to me. Note a massive tell in itself, but I just don't like it.

Whoa. That is wierd. But I'm not sure its a scumtell. Scum wouldnt have knowledge on who's sk, and what advantage does scum have in trying to bring attention to one of the least suspicious players?

2) Dybeck's thing about needing to find the mafia and not wanting to lynch SK shaft.ed. Anti-town, but not a massive scumtell. Confusing if anything

Town should have preference on killing mafia, obviously, since 2 mafia 1 townie is an autoloss, while 1 sk 1 mafia 1 town isnt necessarily a loss. So I dunno. This seems like a nulltell to me.

3) Dybeck's haste to vote Orig was the first thing that stuck out as majorly scummy to me. He accepted AlyG's claim prima facie and then latched on.

That's true. Hypothetically, if Dybeck were mafia, he would know that he did not make the kill on CC, therefore making Orig vig or SK, both something the mafia would want to eliminate as soon as possible.

4) Dybeck's

it's not like we didn't think he was scum yesterday

when dybeck had rejected the Orig D1 wagon

Certainly wierd. Scumtell? I'm not sure. Did he ever address this point?

5) The continued argument where dybeck was ignoring the main tenets of why I don't think Orig is scum and just re-running the same things (the three args from my previous post)

I'm confused... 1) Was he arguing he was mafia or SK, and 2) what were those 3 arguments?

6) Singular focus on Orig until it becomes certain Orig is not going to NK.

That's not too bad. Town wants that just as much as scum at this point.

7) Dybeck was, for a long time, only hunting Orig as a SK and ignoring all questions of the mafia

Very scummy. It supports my hypothesizing about your third point.

8.) Wishy-washy attitudes to everyone except Orig (until the Oman thing surfaced)

Hrm. Dont know what to think of this one. Elaboration would be helpful.

(I renumbered your post for my convenience)

9) Dybeck, I thought you were arguing that Oman was the SK? Does a possible bus (only possible, it may not be at all) really have the potential to shift this? If it has shifted you, then I demand that you identity a SK.

I need to understand the context of this. Post #'s? Right now, it looks like you put an unfair burden on him at the time.

10.) More importantly, you seem damn keen on Oman's lynch. You haven't even asked for a claim and you were evidently prepared to hammer.

Bad town play or obvious scum play. It could be either. Thus I say unto you: wifom.

11) You are pre-empting that this hammering could be wrong, despite the fact that you appear to be champing at the bit to hammer.

Wierd. Did he respond to this? Also, post # please.

12) You are wrong that we have neutered Orig even if we are wrong about Oman (interesting that you saying this serves to encourage Oman's lynch). If Oman is town and Orig is mafia, he is still going to NK regardless, since his death is assured by the SK. If Orig is SK, he will pretty much have to NK to have a shot. In other words, your argument is complete rot. If Orig is scum, he will very near certainly night kill.

Maybe. Unless he wants to survive the next day in town. IF by some miracle he survives (the scum could play wifom with the doc and end up getting no kill, or killing someone else entirely) then his kill will assure his lynch the next day. No, if I had claimed vig as sk, I would definately follow their directions.

13) Using Gemelli's wonderful little tool, dybeck has not FoSed Oman this day. He FoSed Oman on D1 for "misrepresentation". Willing to hammer under no pressure of deadline without a FoS?

I dunno. I dont use fosses too often myself. If he has expressed suspicion today, theres not reason that he HAS to use an fos. So I guess its kind of a tell, but I dont think its too strong.

14) His certainty on Orig now with the 100% thing

Hmm. Normally I dont see certainty as a scum tell (look at just completed 486 where I was certain hermit was scum, and we were both town). However, in relation to point 3 and 7 is pretty suspect.

Anyways, this is not supposed to be a defense. I'm responding to it because:
1) I didnt really understand the case, and I still need some confirmation
2) I haven't really seen anyone challenge the case besides Dybeck, who is a relative noob. I'd like to see how it stands up to closer scrutiny
3) I'd like to see if it's a good enough case that I'd be willing to put my vote behind. At this point, I dont think I would.

[Elias_the_thief]

er, incorrect. I dont think I meant to say that.
Anything you want to say about the rest of what I said?

[Elias_the_thief]

although, out of curiousity, what is your number of total games (completed + ongoing) because I think I might actually have you beat.
Mine is 19 (15 completed, 4 ongoing).

[Elias_the_thief]

Day 2 Deadline: September 1

What...?

and I'm undecided AlyG.

[Elias_the_thief]

That the mafia are Lucienne, Elias and Oman, with myself slotted into this list for the rest of you.

Well, first I'll wifom the hell out of you: I love playing as scum. I wouldnt have asked for replacement even if I were swamped with games, were I scum. Now that I'm done shamelessly wifoming, I'd like to point out that you are just as likely with Lucienne and Oman as I am, based on this logic (and taken from my standpoint).

In any event, if Oman is mafia I do not think that shaft.ed and gemelli are. Which confines the mafia to those same three (four for the rest of you).

Why do you feel this way?

The Lucienne/Elias/Oman model is something I want to look at briefly:
(using the parser again)
Elias voted Oman on D1. Maybe sincere, maybe bussing.

I can see where you're coming from with this. Reading my post, it does seem kind of contrived when I express suspicions of Oman's trap. However, I think its pretty unfair to just say "Maybe he was bussing!" Everytime that two people in a suggested scum group vote for one or the other. It's just as likely that I was bussing with orig isnt it? I mean, to just arbitrarily choose one vote and call that a "bus vote" is fairly ridiculous.

However, this is made very interesting in light of Oman in #85:

1) Finally, I don't think Elias is scum here. Starting the wagon on me when originality had a wagon going strikes me an quite pro-town. Scum probably would've tryed to keep the wagon going (as per my phailed trap)

2 Unvote (if I was) Vote: Dr. Blackstrike HoS: Lucienne

Two things to note here:
1) Oman uses Elias's vote to suggest Elias is pro-town
2) Oman pulls a Vote/HoS combo. A very common scumtell.

Would

you

think my vote was at all suspect? I certainly wouldnt. In a situation where Oman created (or claimed to have created) a trap, he has to post his results. My action wasn't scummy. Therefore it would be ridiculous for him to call it scummy. This could easily be sincere town, or scum following up on their original ploy, but it doesnt say much about a connection.
As for #2, I've never heard that before. How is that a scumtell again? I've always thought that use of HoS, FoS, is all personal preference.

Now, Lucienne voted Oman in #68 with a case that was criticised at the time. Oman called it "reaching". Lucienne's vote was third on Oman's wagon. Interestingly, in that very same post #68, Lucienne FoSed Dr. BS who was 2nd on the wagon. Other than that, we have Lucienne FoSing both Oman and dybeck in #876. Lucienne has not FoSed or voted Elias, nor has Elias done anything to Lucienne.

I'm not sure about Oman and Lucienne, but this point is kind of moot to me. Me an Lucienne really haven't been active at the same time yet.

Gemelli: as for the Dybeck wagon/case, its alright, but its not too convincing. I would probably be willing to vote Dybeck at deadline, though I'd rather lynch orig who i think is certain scum. Also, I asked for Shafted to outline the Oman case, he never did. If you would be willing to, I'd be happy to listen and tell you what I think.

[Elias_the_thief]

I think shaft.ed summarized the Oman case pretty well in post 1005.

Didnt notice that. I'll post on the subject tomorrow.

[Elias_the_thief]

Alright. I'll back down on the Orig lynch, if the numbers are that bad.

unvote

I'll have to reevaluate the cases against Oman and Dybeck then. I dont have the energy now, I'll have it tonight.

[Elias_the_thief]

How Dybeck reacts to his crippled case on dybeck... huh... either thats a typo or I am going to run into some odd shit when I finish reading his novel...

Yeah, I hope that's a typo, or else I might has well give up on this game (again). Could you correct that vollkan?

[Elias_the_thief]

Whether orig is the SK or vig makes no difference to the mafia, and a killing role is a greater threat than anything else that has already been exposed.

Except for the fact that this allows them to let him live, get the kill on Aly, the only other protown role revealed (or some other random person, depending on the wifom game they'll play), and count on us to lynch Orig in the morning for surviving the night. This is the problem I see with it anyhow. It's putting too much reliance on the mafias kill.

[Elias_the_thief]

The problem with that line of reasoning, though, is:
(1) If originality is mafia, lynching him will not stop the mafia from making an NK tonight -- they will target AlyG regardless of whether orig lives or dies. Regardless of who the SK kills at this point -- and he/she has no incentive to help the mafia out by passing on the night action -- we will have two NKs, and will know for sure that originality is (or was) mafia.

But my point is that by allowing Orig to live, it allows for an almost certain nonmafia lynch tomorrow (assuming he is SK/Vig). At least that's how I see it. I mean, what do we do tomorrow when he isnt dead, and we have two nks to worry about the next night?

(2) If originality is NOT mafia, the mafia has no way of knowing whether he's a SK or a vig. So if we don't lynch him, and they target AlyG tonight, there will be an NK that is not controlled by the mafia on N3.

I dont see a disadvantage to scum here. Vig/SK kills rarely actually hit scum, simply because town greatly outnumbers scum. This seems to be something scum would want, at least for one night.

[Elias_the_thief]

Vollkan... if I'm completely honest with you, I didn't read your numbers.

You've failed to convince me that originality isn't scum. He killed carrotcake, got found out by a tracker, and needs to hang. That's basically the bottom line for me.

I just want to lynch a scum. If people choose to listen to your defense of orig, then more fool them.

We'll just lynch Korlash instead.

*headdesks*
You can't be serious.

The CC argument of yours has been shot down again and again. The numbers I gave further this point by highlighting that your stance is anti-town. I also really do not like the casual "just lynch Korlash" ending.

Agreed.

Except for the fact that this allows them to let him live, get the kill on Aly, the only other protown role revealed (or some other random person, depending on the wifom game they'll play), and count on us to lynch Orig in the morning for surviving the night. This is the problem I see with it anyhow. It's putting too much reliance on the mafias kill.

No. You miss how this works.

If Orig is Vig

Orig will not NK. Mafia will NK him or AlyG

If Orig is SK

Orig will probably not NK (his own death is guaranteed if he does). Mafia will NK him or AlyG

If Orig is Mafia

Orig will NK AlyG. The SK will NK Orig.

It still relies on all scum acting as predicted, but I did miss your main point apparently.

The problem with that line of reasoning, though, is:

(1) If originality is mafia, lynching him will not stop the mafia from making an NK tonight -- they will target AlyG regardless of whether orig lives or dies. Regardless of who the SK kills at this point -- and he/she has no incentive to help the mafia out by passing on the night action -- we will have two NKs, and will know for sure that originality is (or was) mafia.
(2) If originality is NOT mafia, the mafia has no way of knowing whether he's a SK or a vig. So if we don't lynch him, and they target AlyG tonight, there will be an NK that is not controlled by the mafia on N3.

This is true as well.

Pretty sure I addressed this

But my point is that by allowing Orig to live, it allows for an almost certain nonmafia lynch tomorrow (assuming he is SK/Vig). At least that's how I see it. I mean, what do we do tomorrow when he isnt dead, and we have two nks to worry about the next night?

Why does it make a nonmafia lynch tomorrow certain?

Orig not showing up dead makes me pretty sure he's scum. I doubt mafia would play the wifom game on whether theres a cop to protect Aly or not.

When he isn't dead tomorrow we simply scumhunt as normal (unless he has NKed). I don't see the problem. The two nks thing is a non-issue because, if Orig has not NKed on N2, it means we can control him again (either to make a kill or to refrain).

I do not agree with controlling a role taht we are unsure of. If he is SK, he will certainly betray us when we are close to LYLO, forcing us to kill scum instead of him.

I dont see a disadvantage to scum here. Vig/SK kills rarely actually hit scum, simply because town greatly outnumbers scum. This seems to be something scum would want, at least for one night.

No. If we lynch today, keeping Orig alive gives the prospect of having all mafia eliminated by N3 (low prospect, but it is a real threat to them).

with the kill in the hands of Orig...

Elias, I just proved numerically that lynching Orig is a terrible idea. If he is mafia, it will only be as helpful to us most likely as a mislynch. If he is SK or Vig we are in LYLO. Our best bet is to lynch a mafioso today. If we stuff up, our situation will likely only be as bad as if we had lynched mafOrig anyway.

I've already backed down from lynching Orig. I just pointed to a possible flaw in your logic and you all got up in arms about it.

Thus, your position is wholly wrong. PLEASE do not do a dybeck and just ignore us.

My

position

? Is this a debate now? All I did was point out a flaw in your logic. Did I put my vote on Orig? No. You sure got pissed off over nothing there...

[Elias_the_thief]

What I got from what you said was that you didn't claim vanilla at all, you were actually talking about ice cream. Is this right?

How you got that from his comment, I'm really not sure. Maybe this was a joke or something, but if not...wow.

[Elias_the_thief]

Korlash- I gave my opinion on the situation earlier. For now, I'd like to see where this goes, but I don't have the time to write up things as well as Vollkan has done. Do I think you're scum? I don know. From personal experience, I know that Vollkan has a way of getting contradictions out of people, perhaps even if they didnt make them.

[Elias_the_thief]

I think originality is the best lynch for today. Although Korlash is inherently scummier, a guilty investigation result is far more incriminating.

I want to vote for orig, but would prefer to see a votecount (and Elias' views)

If you expect me to share my views, I'm sure the town could use some more in depth views from you.

All I know is that lynching orig would be bad. I havent really made up my mind on Korlash, but he's digging himself into a deeper hole everytime he posts. This doesnt mean he scum necessarily though. I'll have to reread the discussion he's had with Vollkan.

[Elias_the_thief]

I'm curious as to what places me third (well, fourth really) on your list of scum. You dont post anything substantial on me really, simply a reference to my disagreement on the number issue (which I never really had). After your original numbers post, I accepted that lynching Orig was a bad move. I just simply had an issue with one portion of the logic, which was relying on the mafia to kill a certain person.

Anyhow, taking a previous post of yours (1193), I looked at the group of uncertains you posted:
"Elias_the_thief
Korlash
Gemelli
Lucienne
volkann
shaft.ed"

Barring myself, and people that I find are likely town (vollkan and shafted) I'm left with:
"Korlash
Gemelli
Lucienne"
Assuming we have 3 scum, there is our scumgroup. If we have only two, or on the off chance that Orig is a mafioso who got caught making the nightkill for his group, then one of those is not scum, obviously. I'm not sure how you get more scum tells off lucienne then Korlash, when lucienne has posted so little. Could you elaborate some? Surely that one post is not your entire case?

[Elias_the_thief]

:good posting:

[Elias_the_thief]

:good posting:

seriously? Come on was that a joke or do you just like to be maddeningly unhelpful? Seriously post more... >.> <.<

It was a joke, making fun of the post before mine.

My opinion on the dybeck claim? I dunno yet. From one perspective, Dybeck as doc doesnt want to claim early because there is already incriminating evidence against orig, and claiming isnt necessary. Therefore the late claim isnt so outlandish.
On the other hand, Dybeck as mafia can make a pretty good bet that Orig is sk, (or maybe theyre both mafia, to rule nothing out) and the claim gives him reason for a heavy push as well as credibility tomorrow. Even if Orig turns out to be vig, Dy can claim that he might be paranoid or insane cop. So it's up in the air.

I dont see any reason to seriously disbelieve his claim right now, so for now its a tentative yes.

[Elias_the_thief]

My scum list (In order of "scumminess")

1)Lucienne-Roughly %60
1)Elias-Roughly %60
~They both seem a bit to inactive at this point when their opinion really matters here. So I have them set kinda high because I really want to get more out of them.

you realize this is a

scum

list right? not a list of people who you want to pressure? Do you honestly feel that me and lucienne are the most likely scum based on the fact that we've posted the least? If so, thats ridiculous.

Further, I havent even been that inactive lately. I've been keeping up and posting my opinion where needed. It's starting to get kind of irritating how the latest cool thing to do is go "hmm, i cant think of anything to say, hey lucienne and elias! post something!"

Anyways, Shafted makes some good points on the Dybeck claim, many that I missed, mainly because I was in my official out of game stage. Now that the these things are pointed out to me, they definately add up. So Dybeck just moved up several spots on my LoS.

[Elias_the_thief]

Well, your post has certainly changed my mind on the Dybeck claim. Theres a lot of inconsistency there, and the motivation for scum to fake claim cop there is certainly plentiful. So, I'd put my opinion on the Dybeck claim as a tentative no, as opposed to the tentative yes that was there before. As to the Orig claim, Ive already told the town what I think of his claim, in fact, that was my first post upon reentering the game, debunking his claim. I'm fairly certain that Orig is our SK.

As for favored lynch? Orig seems like a bad choice, as Vollkan has pointed out multiple times. I dont believe Shafted or Vollkan are scum. Lucienne doesnt post enough to tell. Korlash and Gemelli I'm undecided on, though I dont like Korlashs play thus far. So I think that leaves me with Dybeck, who I've thought was slightly scummy throughout the game. Combined with the likelihood of his claim being false, he is my preferred lynch at this point.

[Elias_the_thief]

you realize this is a scum list right? not a list of people who you want to pressure?

Do you honestly feel that me and lucienne are the most likely scum based on the fact that we've posted the least?

If so, thats ridiculous.

Further, I havent even been that inactive lately. I've been keeping up and posting my opinion where needed. It's starting to get kind of irritating how the latest cool thing to do is go "hmm, i cant think of anything to say, hey lucienne and elias! post something!"

Anyways, Shafted makes some good points on the Dybeck claim, many that I missed, mainly because I was in my official out of game stage. Now that the these things are pointed out to me, they definately add up. So Dybeck just moved up several spots on my LoS.

Well with posts like these I cant imagine how I could think your not contributing useful stuff... [/sarcasm]

I mean seriously with all the talk on Dybeck and orig you cannot say more then "Hmm, interesting post Shaft.ed! Dybeck has just moved up a bit!" I am glad you went into more detail in yoru next post and for all intensive purposes I did list Lucienne first for a reason.

I'm not sure what you expect out of me Korlash. I have clearly shown more then once that I believe that Orig is SK, and I have clearly shown that I dont intend to lynch him today. What else do you want me to say on the subject of Orig? Just because I haven't posted novels like you doesnt mean that you have expressed your opinion any more then I have.
And about Dybeck? I was undecided/ leaning more towards believing the claim, because I had no reason to disbelieve it. Shafted posted, and it revealed several reasons to disbelieve it. So I commented that I agreed with it, and swayed me towards disbelieving his claim. I also said that I was my preferred lynch today. What more do you want out of me on this subject? Do you expect me to pull more evidence against Dybeck out of my ass in addition to the case that Shafted has already meticulously constructed?
At this point, I see your insistence that I dont post enough content as a personal attack. I responded both to your posts, naming two lurkers the two top scum, as well as responded to Shafteds case, the two most important posts. Furhter, its ridiculous of you to attack my response to shafteds post. Shall we compare it to yours?

@ shaft.ed: sweet... That saves me a lot of reread ^^

Yeah, my post was definately the one that added nothing to the discussion.

Secondly, I do find any sort of lurking right before a deadline very scummy. In my mind I see you two as trying to stay out of the radar for the rest of the day while giving us very little to go on tomorrow. So yes, I consider you two the most needed responses/posts out of and if I have to call you scum to get it so be it.

You dont understand my point. Although I believe that lurking is a completely and utterly STUPID scum tell, (as I do it all the time as town and scum, depending on time constraints, how into the game I am, and other factors) my point is not that you have no basis for suspecting me. The point is that you made a list of scum, not a list of people that needed to be more active. If in fact, you just put us up there to get us to talk,

So yes, I consider you two the most needed responses/posts out of and if I have to call you scum to get it so be it.

who ARE your top suspects?

And to actually address the supposed problem of me not providing you enough info for tomorrow, I have already shown who I want lynched, my opinion on Dy and Orig, and my top suspects. Now, how have I not provided enough info for tomorrow?

Now lets look at you:
Opinion on Dybeck claim? undecided.
Top suspects? Two lurkers (one of which is posting content, though you refuse to accept it)
Opinion on Orig? undecided on whether he is vig or SK.

Yes, I'm certainly the one limiting our info for tomorrow.

Now I am not saying I would lynch either of you two right now or anything... But a little more detailed stuff then you have been giving would be very nice man.

What exactly do you mean by detailed? I've given you my opinions, and why. As far as I can tell, most of your content comes from being attacked by Vollkan, and some OMGUS on shafted. So I'd advise you to get off my fucking case on "not enough content".

Ok thats about all the stuff facing me at this moment I think...

This post you just made was so full of content. A baseless attack on my contribution. Nice one.

[Elias_the_thief]

At this point, I see your insistence that I dont post enough content as a personal attack. I responded both to your posts, naming two lurkers the two top scum, as well as responded to Shafteds case, the two most important posts. Furhter, its ridiculous of you to attack my response to shafteds post. Shall we compare it to yours?

And I see your reaction to me naming you in my top two scum pick as a little bit over the top.

Firstly, see mini 486. Nothing is over the top for me. Secondly, this is a reaction, not to you putting me top two persay (I really could care less how scummy you think I am) but about the fact that you continue to say that I havent posted enough info, when I clearly have. Through clever editting, you left out the part of my post where I compared the info we'd provided.

Yeah, my post was definately the one that added nothing to the discussion.

Yes it was... Glad you can admit that. Mine on the other hand addressed three real points while yours barely addressed one. I think the scale is in my favor there.

I wondor if you think youre clever when you ignore obvious sarcasm. For the record, youre not. Regardless, you miss my point. You said that my first post was bad, because it wasnt a detailed enough response to Shafteds. But your reference to that post was less then a sentance. And as for the rest? You made the following points:
1) That youre against a Dybeck lynch.
2) That you made a joke
3) That Shafteds post saved you a reread
4) That I wasnt posting enough.
So lets see. 1 is a point that I've already made previously, so claiming that your post is better simply because I neglected to reiterate my point is fairly ridiculous. 2 is pretty irrelevant. You made a joke, good for you. In the grand scheme of things, the supposed single point I made in my post is superior. If youre claiming that the third point makes your post superior, then you must be joking, seeing as I actually made a paragraph long response to his points, while you didnt do anything more then acknowledge that he had made a post. Finally, 4 is dead wrong, seeing as I've posted on all of the major issues.

You dont understand my point. Although I believe that lurking is a completely and utterly STUPID scum tell, (as I do it all the time as town and scum, depending on time constraints, how into the game I am, and other factors) my point is not that you have no basis for suspecting me. The point is that you made a list of scum, not a list of people that needed to be more active. If in fact, you just put us up there to get us to talk,

No shit sherlock... Did the fact I said I put you guys up there to get you to talk have anything to do with this breakthrough here?

That was a nice attempt to undermine my credibility by exaggerating a point I made to make it sound dumb. The thing is, this wasnt even the point. This was all leading up to the question I was asking. To say "no shit sherlock" about the analysis behind a question is really quite silly.

Also I find the fact that your talking now to be... I don't know... my point!

If you hadnt noticed, I've been talking the whole game. The reason I'm writing more now is because you've really pissed me off by yelling "you have no content" when I've said all there is to be said.

I too agree lurking is not a scum tell, I hardly think ANYTHING can be defined as a "scum tell" that word is so god damn overused in this game... HOWEVER! When a deadline is posed and a player repeatedly uses an excuse not to post, or repeatedly posts very little it makes me think he or she is trying to skirt under the radar.

What does the amount posted in any given post have to do with skimming under the radar? I've given definitive opinions on what people have asked of me and other issues. Why is the fact that I dont post 300 words have to do with me "skirting under the radar" You're ridiculous.

I don;t see why you are reacting so badly to me asking you to post a bit more then you are. I don't see Lucienne acting so rash... That was a joke in case your as slow as you seem...

It's not a joke when we're this close to deadline and you were asked seriously who tops you scumlist, and also never clarified in the post who your actual top person was. At this point in the game, I have no choice but to defend myself even with the possibility that you were joking. And if you havent noticed, Lucienne isnt acting this rash because SHE HASNT POSTED YET, for one, and two, now youve said (3 posts later) that is was a joke and theres no reason for her to. Anyways, seeing as Shafted responded in seriousness, I think its pretty clear that that part of your post was not easily distinguished as a joke.

who ARE your top suspects?

An hour ago, Dybeck, right now, you and Dybeck...

Thats what I was asking for. And you think youve pressured me into providing info. Anyways, what exactly makes you think I'm scum? That I'm pissed off? Ask yourself: do townies get pissed off when theyre wrongly accused? Hell yes they do. Again, youre just making a bad move, placing me at the top of your scumlist for being pissed off.

I have already shown who I want lynched, my opinion on Dy and Orig, and my top suspects. Now, how have I not provided enough info for tomorrow?

How do you feel on Gem? Whats your biggest issues with me? How about Lucienne? Vollkan? Shaft.ed? There is going to be a fucking mafia NK here... and I would either like to know what your issues are with the person going to die, or if you die what your issues are with your supposed killers. Also if I am the one to die perhaps it may lead to my killer being found. I don't really know, but we have like a week + until deadline... use it stupid...

Attacking my intelligence will make everything better. First of all, I've already said that I'm undecided on Gemelli. Second of all, what the hell do you mean, "biggest issues"? Lucienne is a lurker, Vollkan and Shafted I have no problems with. My biggest issue with you is your refusal to accept that I have been contributing, and the fact that youre continually using it as a fallback thing when you have nothing better to say. "Hmm, elias should post, lol"

Opinion on Orig? undecided on whether he is vig or SK.

I believe I was undecided on whether he was Sk or Mafia... I could be wrong... I do have a bad memory XD

Good job ignoring my point. I just showed how I've actually given a much clearer depiction of my opinions then you have of yours, and you ignore it. Nice one.

What exactly do you mean by detailed? I've given you my opinions, and why. As far as I can tell, most of your content comes from being attacked by Vollkan, and some OMGUS on shafted. So I'd advise you to get off my fucking case on "not enough content".

that seems a little over the top... I mean... If you are posting content, detailed and useful, don't you think that it would backfire on me? And that the other players would see that? Why are you so afraid to be in the spotlight right now? A simple "I think I am posting enough" would be enough on your part and would probably end up making me look like the bad guy. Yet you choose to react pretty defensive... I don't get it... It doesn't make sense...

Oh yes, the fact that I said "fucking" means that I went over the top. Listen, just because I used a swears doesnt mean you can ignore my points. You know why I didnt just say "I think I am posting enough"? I dont believe in making random assertions. I like to back up what I say. Thats what that post did. The fat that I was a little angry when I wrote it is not a reason to ignore its logic.

This post you just made was so full of content. A baseless attack on my contribution. Nice one.

My post also contained two answers to things Vollkan said. A thank you to Shaft.ed for doing something nice( I have mentioned before how helpful you guys can be to me in this regards.), and 2, count them two issues against you. Thats a total of 5 points in my post. Stop trying to make me seem just as useless as you are...

Um yeah, as I said. The first point I had made previously, and you should have also, since it was brought up ages ago. That point hurts you more then helps you. The second response to Vollkan is hardly relevant. You said you joked. The thank you to Shafted is a terrible point! You didnt even address his post! The two issues with me are ridiculous, because I have been posting enough, and with content.

You say you don't like Korlash, what are your thoughts on Gemelli?

What he asked...

I still hold to waiting until Dybeck answers some things. After that I will place my vote... Until then I will keep poking Elias as it seems to be having some effect... *poke poke poke*

Ive already stated that I am undecided on Gemelli. I have a neutral opinion of him currently. I dont know how else to put that. As for poking me, all youre doing is further angering me. Angering me simply gets me to swear a lot, which wont help the town much. If you think thats the best way that you can help the town now, then I think your no one to be telling me theres something wrong with my late day play.

[Elias_the_thief]

I have more to say but I'm pointing this one out now so i don't forget...

I don;t see why you are reacting so badly to me asking you to post a bit more then you are. I don't see Lucienne acting so rash... That was a joke in case your as slow as you seem...

It's not a joke when we're this close to deadline and you were asked seriously who tops you scumlist, and also never clarified in the post who your actual top person was. At this point in the game, I have no choice but to defend myself even with the possibility that you were joking. And if you havent noticed, Lucienne isnt acting this rash because SHE HASNT POSTED YET, for one, and two, now youve said (3 posts later) that is was a joke and theres no reason for her to. Anyways, seeing as Shafted responded in seriousness, I think its pretty clear that that part of your post was not easily distinguished as a joke.

Um... so you are that slow... Ok... Sorry... I was under the impression you actually had a positive IQ here... Sorry... I will clearly spell it out right now... Are you ready... I'll try to do it slowly!

I don't see why you are reacting so badly to me asking you to post a bit more then you are. [/real sentence]

I don't see Lucienne acting so rash...

[/joke]
That was a joke in case your as slow as you seem... [/trying to show joke]

As for my top two... I just told you, you! And Dybeck, with Lucienne as a third. My reasons for putting you and her up there may not be enough for you, but I stand by what I posted.

More to come in a second =D

Thanks for once again insulting my intelligence, but I'm going to continue to respond to your points in all seriousness, as long as they have relevance to the game. Even if theyre meant to be a joke. You can point them out later if you want, but I dont feel like concerning myself with your jokes which, quite frankly, arent funny.

[Elias_the_thief]

Through clever editting, you left out the part of my post where I compared the info we'd provided.

I never posted my actual statement yes, I find it too difficult to go back in and requote my shit. But I did address your statements before and after. I thought that good enough.

Whatever man. I'm still pretty sure I've more adequately covered the major issues then you have.

I wondor if you think youre clever when you ignore obvious sarcasm.

The same can be said about you... *Cough*

Sigh...your points are not nearly as obvious as mine was there. But point taken.

If you hadnt noticed, I've been talking the whole game. The reason I'm writing more now is because you've really pissed me off by yelling "you have no content" when I've said all there is to be said.
...
Thats what I was asking for. And you think youve pressured me into providing info. Anyways, what exactly makes you think I'm scum? That I'm pissed off? Ask yourself: do townies get pissed off when theyre wrongly accused? Hell yes they do. Again, youre just making a bad move, placing me at the top of your scumlist for being pissed off.

To be fair I will try and see it from your side here... *looks*
Nope still don't get it...

Hmm? What is there not to get? I've posted all I feel that is relevant at this point in the game. It annoys me when you repetitvely ask for more content. This is a completely legitimate point of view to have as town.

Ok heres my thing. First, Let's say you are mafia. As town I see you as still an unkown. I could care less about yoru posts before I replaced. I won;t look at them. I don;t give a rat's ass about them. I do care about any posts you have made sense I have been here. And, personally, I do not remember much of you AlyG, or Lucienne. (On a side note AlyG needs to post like.. today... Kinda hard to rank him to high seeing as how he is claimed power role but...) So I want all the yummy info on you I can get my hands on... mmmm... Infoy goodness!

Now lets pretend I am mafia and you are town. I would love the fact your getting pissed off right now! I would keep pushing it as hard as I could to get you to either slip up or maybe get stuff to use tomorrow. So telling me you are getting pissed won't get me to stop. However, if this was the case, I could see you saying "Screw you Korlash I post enough." And leaving it at that. I could possibly accept that...

So you put me at the top to force me to post more..yet you'd be more happy if I'd made a one sentence post? How does that work? Especially since the main thing I said, if you boil down my post, was screw you, i post enough. What do you think "get off my case about posting content" means?

Lastly, perhaps we are both town. I see your reactions as a little to defensive. Like I said, if you feel you have honestly posted enough just say "I feel I have posted enough and it will take more then just you to get me to post more." And leave it at that instead of actually proving my point and posting more... Whether you like it or not my simple posts at you have made you repost a lot of (semi-useless yes) content. So in my mind I am happy! Yay! Party time is now!

Youre happy because I posted useless pissed off posts against you...Firstly, I really wasnt all that pissed off. I said get off my fucking case, and thats probably the angriest thing I said. I dont get you at all. How is me being pissed off relevant? Getting pissed off is something players do for different reasons. I'm often pissed off in games (as town). You wanna see a really good example (and Vollkan can vouch for this) see mini 486. I got really pissed in that game, and guess what? I was town, and I pulled out a victory.

What does the amount posted in any given post have to do with skimming under the radar? I've given definitive opinions on what people have asked of me and other issues. Why is the fact that I dont post 300 words have to do with me "skirting under the radar" You're ridiculous.

It's not that you don't post a lot, it's that you don;t seem to post that often.

Why is this a problem if all the important info is there? I'll post however often I want, and if this is seriously the main thing that you put me up there for, then I really dont care about your opinions on me anymore.

There are a lot of excuses for that, and I can accept most of them. But while this deadline is in effect I personally feel the same person should post every 6-8 posts. So roughly 3 times a day would be nice.

I have this thing called school, and this thing called homework, and this other thing called having a life. I'm also in 4 games while modding another right now. I dont really have time for 3 posts a day, and if thats not good enough for you, then sucks to you.

Again, Some people only have access certain times, or have so many other games, and that is a good excuse. But I wont stop pressing them to post more because of it.

Alright. I'll be sure to ignore those requests then. I really didnt have too much of a problem (besides being annoyed) with you incessesantly asking me to post until you went and topped your scumlist with my name for it.

Attacking my intelligence will make everything better. First of all, I've already said that I'm undecided on Gemelli. Second of all, what the hell do you mean, "biggest issues"? Lucienne is a lurker, Vollkan and Shafted I have no problems with. My biggest issue with you is your refusal to accept that I have been contributing, and the fact that youre continually using it as a fallback thing when you have nothing better to say. "Hmm, elias should post, lol"

Ok become decided, comment on something new about him, say you will do a reread.. theres a million different ways to contribute even if your "undecided." Tell me why. Illustrate both sides. Say reasons he MIGHT be this or that.

Um, no. Not today. Do you really think that I will be killed tonight? Do I seem like the towns MVP to you? I'll leave my rereading and analysis for the next day (gamewise), because if I think someone has faked a claim (which Shafted convinced me of) then they are my priority lynch. Thus, I will lynch Dybeck today, worry about Gemelli and others tomorrow.

And there has to be something else on me then that. I mean half the people here hate me for reasons not even contributed to this game, surely you can find one other thing to mention.

Huh? You asked me for my biggest issue with you. Its that your main tactic seems to be to prod lurkers, and sometimes people who arent actually lurking.

Lucienne is a lurker... Nice... Do you have any feelings on the few posts she did make? Do you think of here one way or the other? Do you plan on helping get her to talk?

Vollkan voted her, I protested on the account of lack of evidence, and then he went back and pbp'd her well and came to the conclusion that she was likely town, which I agreed with. This should tell you all you need to know about my opinion on Lucienne.

You have NO PROBLEMS with either of them? None at all? Even after Gem's huge Vollkan thing? Come on... Stop trying to convince me you post enough when this is all you can fucking say about people.

*shrug* dont like it? too bad. You asked me for my biggest issue on them, I gave it, with the exception of Gemelli, who can wait til tomorrow.

I mean God, is it really that big of a deal whether I think you have posted enough? No. Should you be making such a big deal over it? no. Should you post more? Hell yes.

Big deal? If I recall, my original post was simply this: pointed out that I was posting enough, then asked you to stop attacking me for lack of content. After that, I've simply been going back and forth with you. How is that making it any bigger a deal than it should be?

Good job ignoring my point. I just showed how I've actually given a much clearer depiction of my opinions then you have of yours, and you ignore it. Nice one.

Kinda like how you keep ignoring me asking you to post more useful stuff... I see it as a fair trade off. I'll gladly do a recap of every single on of my feelings on every single player after you do that same.

Not really. You see, I posted the opinions I feel are relevant for today, and have effectively at least mentioned your points. You flat out ignored this one, and its a strong point against the whole attack youre making right now. Frankly, I couldnt care less about your opinions, really. I believe after Dybeck, the mafia is in {Lucienne, Gemelli, you} by process of elimination. Lets see, I think Lucienne is town...who might the scum be? Thats right. So why would I be so interested in getting detailed play by play by you when it will simply be wifom to analize anyways?

Oh yes, the fact that I said "fucking" means that I went over the top. Listen, just because I used a swears doesnt mean you can ignore my points. You know why I didnt just say "I think I am posting enough"? I dont believe in making random assertions. I like to back up what I say. Thats what that post did. The fat that I was a little angry when I wrote it is not a reason to ignore its logic.

You can say anything you damn well please as long as it is not some personal attack (i.e. your mom is a F... etc etc etc...) I get mad too.. trust me go check out Treestump mafia... Or whatever it is called...

To hear you say that personal attacks are a no-no is interesting, since youve called me "slow" twice.

I just think telling me to "get off your case" is a little over the top... its a game of Mafia man...

And I think you're not listening to what I actually said.

So I'd advise you to get off my fucking case on "not enough content".

I was talking SPECIFICALLY about the not content thing. Thats what you earlier actually said I should have done, said "screw you, I post enough". Hey guess what? Thats what I was saying!

The whole point is to

BE ON SOMEONES CASE!

Stop saying "get off my case" do something about it.

First, I have no problem with you "being on my case" in general. I have a problem with you being on my case content wise. And you ask me to do something about it, but what have I been arguing with you about the last 3/4 posts? You know, the thing that you claim I'm overreacting to? Now youre saying that I'm not doing anything about it? Cant you see that contradiction?

You know a simple summary of all your feelings right after I originally said it might have been enough for me to move on. And I don't, and if you had already done one that still stood at that time a simple quote or link to that would have been enough. But nooo...

You'd rather me repeat myself or quote someone else than what I did, post my own new content...are you for realsies right now? Especially since I had recently posted a summary of most of my feelings.

Um yeah, as I said. The first point I had made previously, and you should have also, since it was brought up ages ago. That point hurts you more then helps you. The second response to Vollkan is hardly relevant. You said you joked. The thank you to Shafted is a terrible point! You didnt even address his post! The two issues with me are ridiculous, because I have been posting enough, and with content.

Firstly to explain where I was joking and where I was not can lead to some bad misunderstandings being avoided. Already you have taken a joke I said a little to seriously and thus have proved why me explaining my jokes are not a "bad point"

I didnt say that they were bad points. I said they really arent that relevant in the grand scheme. You can make 10 jokes and make a point explaining each of them, thus making points like that easily manufactuable, and nothing to brag about. Thats my point, not that theyre "bad".

Secondly while I did not add anything to or about Shaft.ed posts my thank you for him was again, because of a previous misunderstanding that has now been avoided.

So basically, yes, I contributed more on the subject then you. Thanks. I think I could stop this back and forth now, based on just that, if I wanted to.

Unlike you, he seems to want the town all on an equal foot here. And if I show my appreciation for it so be it. (See was it that hard? Did you honestly have to take all my comments as personal attacks when you could have easily cleared them up like I just did?)

Way to change the subject and make random generalizations about what I want for the town. Anyways, I only falsely took one thing as a personal attack, which was that I thought you were calling my posts contentless, which they quite frankly, werent. And as for actual personal attacks, I suppose that calling me "slow" twice doesnt qualify?

As for my points against you, While you may think you post enough I don't. So bringing that up is not "ridiculous" in the least. At least not to me. I could care less if your happy with how often/much you post, if I am not I'm going to fucking tell you about it.

First, this is a meta debate at this point. People have differing opinions on how ofter you must post to be a decent contributor. If you lynch people who disagree with you on this, you will be lynching a lot of townies. And you believe that doing this repetitively helps the town? If so, thats why its ridiculous.

]Ive already stated that I am undecided on Gemelli. I have a neutral opinion of him currently. I dont know how else to put that. As for poking me, all youre doing is further angering me. Angering me simply gets me to swear a lot, which wont help the town much. If you think thats the best way that you can help the town now, then I think your no one to be telling me theres something wrong with my late day play.

Again, you can illustrate why he is neutral. There has to be something either kinda town or kinda scummy he said. His posts against Vollkan have to have somethings you can comment on, there has to be something you can say. Come on man, Saying "I think he is neutral" in no way tells me anything. How can you blame me for not considering that a helpful or content..y... post?

Because that was not the only thing in that post? I am undecided on one factor and thus you throw that entire post out the window as unhelpful and contentless. Can you blame

me

for thinking thats a little harsh?

Also me continuing to poke one of my top three does seem like a good play for town... I will keep it up until there is a majority consensus for me to stop or you drop from my radar... *poke poke poke* or until my fingers get tired... *poke poke poke*

Alright. I'll stop responding to you until you bring up something besides "hey elias, post". Its people like you that make Anix the player that he is today. Right now, his playstyle doesnt even sound that bad.

I myself will be posting something on the Vollkan/Gem posts tonight hopefully. I have business to attend to first but I ill try and read through all those jumbles... and.. long... ass posts... son of a... This site needs spoiler tags or something... Also A redo of my scum list, a few more Dybeck insights I think, and a couple prods to Lucienne and AlyG are soon to follow... Until then...

Good for you. I myself will be quiet unless there is something further relevant I feel the need to comment on. When it is near deadline, I will place my vote on Dybeck, unless something drastic comes up.

Oh and Elias... Take a Chill pill or something... If this is getting you pissed off there has got to be something wrong with you... Cause this is nothing...

Again, insulting my intelligence is nothing to you? Further, I get angry in games. Its what I do. Emotion and anger are tools I use in games. If you have a problem with that, too bad. Oftentimes I will post angrily when I'm not actually angry at all. So yeah. I wont take a chill pill, but its nice to know that you dont know whether I actually need it or not.

If you want me to break into my crap logic and stubbornness chest I will.

You havent been using crap logic, I'll give you that. My main issue with your argumentation is that you like to change subject mid point. But I digress.

I might even be able to create an equal Swear to real words ratio from you...

I guess I can recognize your jokes at this point, but the only reason I find it funny is that youve actually swore about as much as I have already. I used the word "fucking" once, and "hell" once, you used "fuck" twice in your last post, I believe.

Oh and as for your newest posts I could care less if you think they are funny or not. Blatantly taking something I admitted was a joke and trying to use it against me will not help get me to stop focusing on you. Also, I should try and not insult what little intelligence you have... I'll try from now on...

I didnt try to use the joke itself against you. The fact that you didnt actually provide the top of your scumlist becuase you were "joking" is what I was attacking you for. But its all good. Keep up the personal attacks,
Sincerely, Elias.

P.S. I dont find it funny that Vollkan is ignoring this, since it truly means nothing. So far youve attacked me for not posting enough, and youve got me to post totally meaningless crap. At least when I had a "pissing match" with Vollkan, we were debating something meaningful. The only reason we disagreed was meta opinions.

P.P.S. I dont plan on commenting any further on Gemelli or Lucienne, since I dont plan on rereading them this game day. Vote me if you want, but barring future scummy posts, I've made up my mind for today.

[Elias_the_thief]

I've just realized that I missed the majority of the Gemelli-Vollkan debate. I guess I'll comment on it tomorrow, but I believe that Vollkan defeated most of Gems points with the simple word "misrepresentation". As I said, elaboration tomorrow.

[Elias_the_thief]

When I promised my opinion on the Gem-Vollkan debate yesterday, I didnt realize that today is halloween. That post will have to wait for tomorrow.

[Elias_the_thief]

thoughts on dybecks latest post, though others have already posted on the subject.

I've answered like all of these... but I'll run through again.

Pretty sure thats a lie.

1) Why investigate originality?

Seriously... why not? Who would you expect me to investigate? I had a quick readthrough, orig looked like he was going to be today's lynch candidate, so I thought I'd find out what he was. I really don't understand how correctly choosing a target is a scumtell. It's not like my claim is one of those "I'm a cop but oops sorry... I don't have any results for you" or "oops sorry... I investigated the dead guy". I have a concrete, take it to the bank, test my role for 100% certain tonight, role claim. Which you're ignoring.

As has been said, you already know that your alleged target had a killing role from AlyG. Giving a result on Orig is really the easiest claim to make for a fakeclaiming cop. This isnt a scumtell, but the fact that you indicated a guilty on Orig is not a town tell.

3) Where is your case against originality?

I don't need a case. I have a rock-solid investigation. If you wanted a case against him, you could try reading EVERY SINGLE POST I WROTE IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. But seriously. I don't need to look for subtle scum tells. I have an investigation result.

As terrible as this play is as cop, its not really a tell.

4) If you have a guilty investigation why offer to hammer someone else?

Because Korlash is almost certain scum too.

Why, in any situation, would you hammer someone that you think is scum, when you have a guilty investigation on another player? Why go with uncertainty when you KNOW that someone is scum?

5) Why did you claim prematurely?

I thought I was at L-1. My mistake. I'd been itching to do it for ages anyway.

Not much to say about that.

6) Why did you forget to vote for a proven killer you had a guilty investigation on?

Huh? I've been voting him like... all day...

But you started the day attacking someone else, and when you claimed, you didnt vote him in your original post.

7) Why are you not providing more insight into who the scum groups might be?

Actually, I've said repeatedly who I think the scum groups are. Over and over and over again. It's orig and korlash, with probably shaft.ed, with Lucienne as SK. Seriously, search my posts. I've said this a lot.

Did you at any point have a rationale for this?

Now for some of my own:
8) What is your scumdar? I want names, at least one sentence per person and a % ranking.

orig: 100%
korlash: 90%
shaft.ed: 80%
Lucienne: 70%
Elias: 30%
vollkan: 20%
Gemelli: 10%
AlyG: 0%

Explaining this would be nice.

9) Why are you lurking?

I'm not really lurking, but I am pretty bored of reading the extensive posts in this game, that seem to revolve around shaft.ed desperately trying to save his scummate, and the rest of the town agreeing that lynching a scum is a bad idea.

If youre not lurking, then why would you not respond to questions when youre in threat of being lynched?

11) Why do you support lynching Orig despite the numbers lying firmly against it?

Really, they don't. We cannot lynch town today.

Why is lynching town that much different then lynching SK right now in terms of consequences? They both put us in LYLO, because we're not damaging the killing group that wins together. Sure, I'd rather lynch SK then town, but wouldnt you rather lynch mafia?

12) What was your basis for saying "the scum are most vocal"?

shaft.ed and korlash are playing this town like nothing i've ever seen. Read back for yourself.

Korlash isnt really vocal about anything relevant, and Vollkan is much more vocal then Shafted, I'm pretty sure.

So yeah. Dybecks scum.

[Elias_the_thief]

Damn. We lose shaft.ed the player and our cop. On the other hand, I was right about dybeck.

First up, there is now an increased likelihood of Orig actually being a vig. Two reasons:
1) He did not NK (thankyou Orig)
2) He hammered dybeck very quickly, suggesting he knew dybeck was BSing about the guilty investigation.

Alright. The first reason seems to hold up, though the second one is iffy, and I still feel that I presented a good case for him being SK yesterday.

Now, Dybeck-Elias:

My favourite quote of the game so far:

Elias... you must have an opinion on it... help me out here!

I don't have an definate explanation for this, but the thing that I believe might hve made him say this is that I was the one who supported the Orig lynch for the longest, and because I held that I believed Orig to be SK (which I still do now). Thus, he chose to appeal to the person most likely to support his opinion.

Also, dybeck's last scumdar:

orig: 100%
korlash: 90%
shaft.ed: 80%
Lucienne: 70%
Elias: 30%
vollkan: 20%
Gemelli: 10%
AlyG: 0%

My read is this: Orig is at 100% because we now know Orig is a rival killing faction to dybeck. shaft.ed is at 80% because shaft.ed is a very useful townie who dybeck wants dead. Lucienne is at 70% possibly, as Orig said, as distancing; I am unsure of this. Elias is at 30% so that he appears reasonably pro-town, without being imperiled. I am at 20% is a shameless effort to buddy up and Gemelli is at 10% as an effort to embroil a townie should dybeck turn up scum.

And my read on that is that it's for the most part wifom. There are about 3 or 4 instances where you assume that he is doing one thing or another, and that's not reliable at all. You're assuming theres something wrong with me being at 30%, but never really attack

me

.

1. No kill
2. Oman
3. Vollkan
4. Lucienne

More possible distancing to Lucienne.

A possiblilty. Not too strong a tell on its own.

Certainly, if I read back and ignore everything that's been said, but ignore posts by you, Oman, originality and Lucienne, it's amazing how pro-town this group of people looks.

Elias and Gemelli look most pro-town. How very interesting.

Well, what about me did YOU find suspicious, besides this supposed connection to Dy? I havent seen you post any independant reasons why I shouldnt be considered town.

I've stated categorically that I suspect orig, Oman and you are mafia and that Lucienne might be SK. AlyG is town but I stand to be corrected on anyone else. Is that un-wishy-washy enough?

More of the same

All I see is a consistent standpoint on who he claimed was mafia. It would be a tell if he changed his view, but it would be a tell if he didnt. So this is a null point.

Oman never once commented on Gemelli outside of these references. However, dybeck did make a fairly rabid attack on Dr. BS in 222 and continued this in 286.

So whats the point here?

In 95, dybeck very politely answered a question by Elias. In 981:

And hey Elias, welcome back!!

Aww...scumlove <3

...what? Are you honestly telling me that this is a scumtell? He was not the only one to react this way. Besides him, Aly, essentially confirmed tracker, greeted me in a similar way. Are you accusiing me and Aly of being scumbuddies as well?

So yeah, unsurprisingly

Vote: Elias_the_thief

I would say its very surprising. The only evidence behind your vote is that Dybeck has called me town in the past. However, you have presented no reason, besides this supposed connection, that I should not be considered town. This means that Dybeck couldve just as easily been trying to fit in with town. I consider presenting such a weak case uncharacteristic of what I've seen of you, and frankly, scummy. If it weren't for the fact that you've tried to get me lynched before and know how hard it is (thus rendering it unlikely that you as scum would choose me to try to mislynch) I would probably be fossing you. But I'm hoping that maybe you can back up your case with a little bit more than that. Come on, give me a challenge at least.

[Elias_the_thief]

I don't have an definate explanation for this, but the thing that I believe might hve made him say this is that I was the one who supported the Orig lynch for the longest, and because I held that I believed Orig to be SK (which I still do now). Thus, he chose to appeal to the person most likely to support his opinion.

Ouch, bad answer already. Someone's reaching for excuses.
This would be entirely valid, were in not for the fact that dybeck made that call for help in #541. By that stage, you had not actually said anything at all that entire day other than:

Caught up to page 15. finishing the reread tomorrow.

and

back, and rereading. content later, hopefully.

Damn right I'm reaching for excuses. This isn't my post, I don't know why he did it. Therefore anything I say will be "reaching for excuses" as you put it. Anyways, in the context of what I had posted, my point still makes sense. I was pretty much the only one to not put down his idea, and he knew that I still needed to post something.

And my read on that is that it's for the most part wifom. There are about 3 or 4 instances where you assume that he is doing one thing or another, and that's not reliable at all. You're assuming theres something wrong with me being at 30%, but never really attack me.

Yup, it's wifom. I am not basing my reasoning on it, but I am interpreting it in light of what I know scum characteristically do.

Ouch, now that is a bad answer. Any good mafia player knows that all scum act differently. To say you "know what scum characteristically do", especially when you've played in so few games, is pretty sketchy reasoning. For instance, were I scum in his position, I would make my list for the most part the same as an obvious townie. That way, the list looks legitimate while I'm alive, then completely useless once I die. I'm not saying this is what he did, I'm just saying that there are many, many, different reasons for the way that list is. If you're not basing your reasoning on it, including it in your case makes me suspicious that you are trying purposefully to inflate a case that you know is weak.

Well, what about me did YOU find suspicious, besides this supposed connection to Dy? I havent seen you post any independant reasons why I shouldnt be considered town.

It's coming at the bottom of this post. Don't wet yourself.

No promises.

All I see is a consistent standpoint on who he claimed was mafia. It would be a tell if he changed his view, but it would be a tell if he didnt. So this is a null point.

Well, we did see him change his views.

Towards the end he slotted shaft.ed as obv scum and me as obv town, presumably in an effort to buddy up to me in the hopes of winning points off me or, in the alternative, flinging as much suspicion onto me as possible.

Simply the fact that you list two possible incentives makes me more skepticle(sp?) of your point. Regardless of why he did it, all this does is show further evidence to him being scum, which has already been proven. I'm uncertain as to why this is incriminating to me.

So whats the point here?

That dybeck was quite against BS, which suggests to an extent that he may not be scum with Gemelli.

I'm not sure why. Three possible incentives for attacking BS: Distancing, bussing, going with the flow. To say that Dybeck attacking BS means that he is not aligned with Gemelli is nothing more then an interpretation of a wifom action, and certainly nothing incriminating.

...what? Are you honestly telling me that this is a scumtell?

Humour, Elias (and reaction-testing)

Sorry. Already in defense mode, no time for humour (well maybe a little).

* Elias enters the game in 23, with a L-3 vote on Orig for his silly suggestion to lynch lurkers. Going after an exceedingly obvious target. Elias then, in his next post, admits it was just a newbie tell then goes after Oman for bandwagoning (oh the irony!)

1) An attempt to lynch a lurker is probably the best lead you have on page one. I don't see why attacking LAL(urkers) is a point against me.
2) What exactly makes going after an easy target suspicious? As a townie, I saw this as a relevant lead to look into, and applied pressure. As scum, I could've attempted to fit in by doing the same, but have we honestly gotten so wifom that now what began as a mafiosos attempt to look like townie has now become a scumtell and nothing more?
3) I did not just "admit it was a town tell". Orig defended himself, and I felt the defense was sufficient. Way to misrepresent me.
4) I didn't just attack Oman for bandwagoning. I voted him based off of inconsistency. I added that his vote seemed opportunistic as an afterthought. As a matter of fact, the only time I mention bandwagoning in my entire post is when I say "there is nothing wrong with bandwagoning". seriously man, what are you smoking?

* 124 you consider wagonning VP, no explanation as to why though.

Come on Vollkan, you know my position on bandwagoning from our last game. To clarify, it is as follows "bandwagoning is good stuff". Bandwagoning is extremely beneficial to town as long as it doesnt get out of hand. Thus I asked for a votecount, to assure myself that I wasnt just piling on close to his lynch.

* A whole lot of nothing for some time

not a scumtell.

* 988, echoing dybeck, you go after Orig.

"echoing dybeck"? are you kidding me? I painstakingly investigated the posts that Orig had made, wrote up a post, lost it, and posted another shorter version anyways. I'm fairly certain that most of those points were original ones. For the record, agreeing with someone on a point for different reasons =/= echoing them.

* 1021: This is where you dissected my dybeck case. This is important. As I hinted at yesterday, the strange thing was that whilst you conceded most things were scummy or weird, to varying degrees, you pretty much found it lacking.

To correct you, I thought the majority were wierd actions, not scummy. There is a difference. There were really one two good points in the case, thus I found it lacking. You yourself admitted in the next post that it was lacking. So why is it a scumtell that I am the one who's opinion you agreed with?

The other important details around this time are:
1) You were clear that "this is not supposed to be a defense." Which is odd. If you were just deconstructing a case, why would I have any reason to deem you being defensive?

I didn't want it to be considered a defense because:
1) I had not fully decided on whatr I thought of Dybeck, so calling it a "defense" would be an overstatement.
2)I still needed some things clarified, so I wasn't even sure whether I supported your single post yet.
3) You know very well I'm conscious of making scumtells as town. I didnt want to look suspect if he came up scum.

2) A few posts later you do the "its alright, but its not too convincing. I would probably be willing to vote Dybeck at deadline".

ok. Whats your point?

* 1059, you concede how bad the numbers are, and yet in 1078 and 1081 you persist in trying to argue in favour of lynching Orig.

I was arguing the actual reasoning behind it, but I never once in those posts said that I wanted to lynch orig that day. I simply noted that I was weary of trusting anti town factions to do what we expected them too.

* 1227:

Barring myself, and people that I find are likely town (vollkan and shafted) I'm left with:
"Korlash
Gemelli
Lucienne"
Assuming we have 3 scum, there is our scumgroup. If we have only two, or on the off chance that Orig is a mafioso who got caught making the nightkill for his group, then one of those is not scum, obviously. I'm not sure how you get more scum tells off lucienne then Korlash, when lucienne has posted so little. Could you elaborate some? Surely that one post is not your entire case?

No mention of dybeck. Avoidance

Um...I was going off of your post's list of uncertains...if you look at that post, you already have dybeck written off as cop or mafia, which was my opinion at the time. I was simply speculating as to the uncertains.

My opinion on the dybeck claim? I dunno yet. From one perspective, Dybeck as doc doesnt want to claim early because there is already incriminating evidence against orig, and claiming isnt necessary. Therefore the late claim isnt so outlandish.
On the other hand, Dybeck as mafia can make a pretty good bet that Orig is sk, (or maybe theyre both mafia, to rule nothing out) and the claim gives him reason for a heavy push as well as credibility tomorrow. Even if Orig turns out to be vig, Dy can claim that he might be paranoid or insane cop. So it's up in the air.

I dont see any reason to seriously disbelieve his claim right now, so for now its a tentative yes.

How marvelously ambivalent.

Yup. Believe it or not, I as town did not know the truth of his claim, and thus gave a tentative yes.

* Then, in 1274, as the wheels finally turn against dybeck, you jump ship and declare him your preferred lynch.

I "jump ship"? what do you mean?
anyways, is it really spectcaular that I post dybeck as my preferred lynch after being pressured into naming a preferred lynch? Is it really odd that I saw the case by shafted and thought it rang true? You're really making scumtells out of nothing now.

* And of course, then we have that enormous pissing match with Korlash.

/not a scumtell.

* Right near the end of the day, you chime in with your first actual attack on dybeck, concluding "So yeah. Dybecks scum."

I dont believe that was my first attack. Regardless, /not a scumtell.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Do not get me wrong, if this wagon gets any larger right now I will unvote promptly. The thing is, Elias, you are my number one suspect right now and I have no qualms about voting accordingly.

If you will simply unvote if another vote joins yours, whats the point of voting me? Do you expect me to crack under the pressure? Please don't make me laugh.

As for my unusual brevity, let's not forget that you have had a mere 57 posts this entire game. I have made 250. There's significantly less content on you and you have gotten through this game more or less by lurking.

Good for you. Let me remind you that for the majority of that time I was accepted as replacing out of this game. I was already out as far as I was concerned, why post? It was not til Cicero's thread in MD that I heard that no replacement had been found and I came back. I missed like 30 pages. Blaming me for having less post then you is in VERY bad taste, and I thought I wouldnt see something like that from you.

What I have seen, I don't like.

We can't all afford plastic surgery.

[Elias_the_thief]

Ugh, can't respond tonight. Preparing for a debate tournament tomorrow. As a result, I won't be here tomorrow either.

[Elias_the_thief]

no time for a major post, however:
Dybeck is an experienced player. Do none of you find it unlikely that he would purposefully NEVER post suspicion on me?

[Elias_the_thief]

*if we were scum together.
As in to say, its a move an inexperienced player would make.

[Elias_the_thief]

Also, response to all accusations will be up tomorrow.

[Elias_the_thief]

As an aside, I find it rather amusing that this is the second time that I have led the charge to get a mafioso killed and then moved onto to argue against you.

Damn right I'm reaching for excuses. This isn't my post, I don't know why he did it. Therefore anything I say will be "reaching for excuses" as you put it. Anyways, in the context of what I had posted, my point still makes sense. I was pretty much the only one to not put down his idea, and he knew that I still needed to post something.

It doesn't make sense. You had said nothing on the topic and yet dybeck randomly asked for your help.

You know what? Dybeck did it. Not me. If you wish to hold it against me, then fine, but I can't explain his actions. More and more I find myself thinking that his day two play was purely for setting up a series of unfortunate events for the town, including the framework to support my mislynch. I think it's perfectly feasible. First, he ran into a LOT of suspicion early day two, explaining why the course of action would be taken. Second, he falseclaimed cop, and didnt even do a good job of it. I believe this was simply an attempt to out the cop. If we take his position from that of a scum trying to stay alive, to a scum trying to hurt the town as much as possible before he goes down, me being town makes a lot more sense.

Ouch, now that is a bad answer. Any good mafia player knows that all scum act differently. To say you "know what scum characteristically do", especially when you've played in so few games, is pretty sketchy reasoning. For instance, were I scum in his position, I would make my list for the most part the same as an obvious townie. That way, the list looks legitimate while I'm alive, then completely useless once I die. I'm not saying this is what he did, I'm just saying that there are many, many, different reasons for the way that list is. If you're not basing your reasoning on it, including it in your case makes me suspicious that you are trying purposefully to inflate a case that you know is weak.

Yes, all scum do act differently; my answer is not affected by that.

How is a point based on what scum "characteristically do" not affected if you admit that scum do not necessarily act in this way?

Dybeck had consistent attitudes towards everybody, except where he went rabidly against shaft.ed and buddied himself to me right near the end.

k. So basically you're saying his consistent stance towards me is a null tell, since he did it to the majority of players.

You ask why I bother to include if I am not basing my reasoning on it. Remember Oman's list of vig targets in Mini 486. I kept referring to it throughout the game even though everything I was saying about it was this same sort of wifom speculation. The fact is that these lists are valuable, not as bases for accusations, but as ways of getting a perspective on things.

If you say so. However, be aware that last time, all of your guesses based on Oman's list were wrong. (especially the part where you thought it indicated I was scum)

The interpretation of dybeck's list is consistent with how I have read his attitudes towards people overall. I think he is most likely to have been scum with (in order of likelihood) yourself, Gemelli, Lucienne or Korlash. Thus, that is how I

currently

rationalise the list.

So basically you're saying that you saw the list, saw a few possible scenarios that could explain his reasoning, saw one that gelled nicely with your own assumptions on him, and took it? Is this how you get all of your evidence? Find the possibility that conforms with your predetermined notions and advocate it?

Simply the fact that you list two possible incentives makes me more skepticle(sp?) of your point. Regardless of why he did it, all this does is show further evidence to him being scum, which has already been proven. I'm uncertain as to why this is incriminating to me.

You said I had showed nothing, other than that he had a consistent outlook. What I was showing was that he had changed his attitude in regards to myself and shaft.ed. It does not incriminate you, but it suggests to me the level at which he was operating. That helps me rationalise his actions. It doesn't relate to you directly, but it relates to how I interpret dybeck and, thus, how I see his relations to you.

How do you know the level he was operating at? He was under pressure almost all day. I wouldnt trust what you think about any info he provided day 2.

I'm not sure why. Three possible incentives for attacking BS: Distancing, bussing, going with the flow. To say that Dybeck attacking BS means that he is not aligned with Gemelli is nothing more then an interpretation of a wifom action, and certainly nothing incriminating.

Hence, why I said "to an extent". You seem to be importing a much greater degree of certainty onto what I am saying than I actually expressed. That point had nothing to do with you; I was merely noting something which ran against the grain of dybeck-Gemelli.

And you're acting as if I was defending myself. I was simply showing how that reasoning was false. You know, just because I'm defending myself doesnt mean I cant look at other aspects of the game as well.

1) An attempt to lynch a lurker is probably the best lead you have on page one. I don't see why attacking LAL(urkers) is a point against me.

Simple. You should know that LALurkers is considered legitimate by a significant proportion of people (myself among them). Thus, I find it rather odd that you would go after someone for proposing LAL; it's very easy to accuse an LALer of being scum.

sigh...
you dont get how I work in early day 1 do you? I find small scum tells, exagerate them, form bandwagons, and garner information. Of course I took advantage of an oppurtunity to attack him. It lets me get a bandwagon, which as I argued in our last game, helps the town.

2) What exactly makes going after an easy target suspicious? As a townie, I saw this as a relevant lead to look into, and applied pressure. As scum, I could've attempted to fit in by doing the same, but have we honestly gotten so wifom that now what began as a mafiosos attempt to look like townie has now become a scumtell and nothing more?

You are experienced enough to know that LAL is not a scumtell, but that it is very easy to draw suspicion onto LALers. That's why I don't like the fact that you went after Orig for LALing.

The fact that you say "experienced enough to know its not a scumtell" is where I know I can discount what youre saying. Are you familiar with the concept of wifom? Ya know, taking what you think scum wouldnt do and doing it as scum? Besides, I would make the play as scum and town. Its good for town if I am town, it makes me look protown as scum because I do it as town. So what you've got there is a null point.

"echoing dybeck"? are you kidding me? I painstakingly investigated the posts that Orig had made, wrote up a post, lost it, and posted another shorter version anyways. I'm fairly certain that most of those points were original ones. For the record, agreeing with someone on a point for different reasons =/= echoing them.

In 988 you attacked dybeck's assertion that he had a gut feeling against CC and noted that he had assumed SK. Dybeck had been making much the same line of attack regarding "You really think that a pro-town vig could possibly have found carrotcake the scummiest player yesterday?" consistently (and repetitively)

Ah. So basically you're saying that since I had one similar point to support a similar conclusion, the entire post was echoed from him. Got it. That totally makes sense.

To correct you, I thought the majority were wierd actions, not scummy. There is a difference. There were really one two good points in the case, thus I found it lacking. You yourself admitted in the next post that it was lacking. So why is it a scumtell that I am the one who's opinion you agreed with?

Let me run through the points:
1)

Dybeck's certainty

- I said weird, but not a massive scumtell; though, I did not like it. Your response was that it was weird but not a scumtell, since mafia wouldn't know who the SK was.
2)

Dybeck's "don't lynch SK shaft.ed"

- I said confusing and you thought a nulltell
3)

Prima facie acceptance of AlyG

- I thought scummy and you agreed.
4)

The fact dybeck said "it's not like we didn't think he was scum yesterday" despite having opposed the orig wagon

- I thought this was obvious hypocrisy; you dismissed it as weird.
5)

Dybeck's repetitive craplogic

- Again, obviously scummy to me and you asked for clarification as to what of his arguments I meant.
6)

Singular focus on Orig

- I took as self-evidently scummy; you said "That's not too bad. Town wants that just as much as scum at this point."
7)

That dybeck was only hunting SK and ignoring mafia

- We agreed this was very scummy
8)

Wishy-washy attitudes

- Again, I took as self-evident. You asked for me to elaborate
9)

Dybeck shifting on Oman being the SK

- Me = Self-evident. You wanted clarification
10)

Readiness to hammer Oman, including without asking for claim

- Me = self-evidently scummy. You took it as "Bad town play or obvious scum play. It could be either. Thus I say unto you: wifom."
11)

Dybeck pre-empting the hammer being a townie

- Me = self-evident. You took it as "weird".
12)

The fact Orig would NK if Oman was SK lynched

- You gave this as a maybe and gave an alternative explanation.
13)

The fact dybeck never FoSed Oman all day but was ready to hammer

- Me = Self-evident. You "kind of a tell, but I dont think its too strong. "
14)

Certainty

- Me = self-evident. You = "Normally I dont see certainty as a scum tell (look at just completed 486 where I was certain hermit was scum, and we were both town)."

So yes, that makes 9 points against dybeck which you downplayed; and 3 that you asked for further information on. At the time, I was doubting the case myself and your attacks galvanised my uncertainty.

I'm sorry, but the downplaying was justified. The fact that you saw the sense in this then should show you how true it is now. I'm not going to say that just because he was scum that all the arguments pointing in that direction were good ones. I believe a similar issue arose in 486 around I think seteal. Go back and read. I disputed all cases against him long after he was proven to be scum.

I didn't want it to be considered a defense because:
1) I had not fully decided on whatr I thought of Dybeck, so calling it a "defense" would be an overstatement.
2)I still needed some things clarified, so I wasn't even sure whether I supported your single post yet.
3) You know very well I'm conscious of making scumtells as town. I didnt want to look suspect if he came up scum.

As you probably guessed, number 3) was what I was getting at. That I thought you were trying to avoid being seen to be defending him.

Yup. If you recall, I also attempted to avoid unnecessary scum tells in 486 as town. So what point are you getting at here?

2) A few posts later you do the "its alright, but its not too convincing. I would probably be willing to vote Dybeck at deadline".

ok. Whats your point?

It's ambivalence, which as you know I consider scummy.

Its not ambivalence. I said it wasnt convincing, ie I wouldnt vote for him under normal circumstances. I also said I would vote for him at deadline. I think thats a pretty clear cut idea of what I thought of it, pinpointing when I would and wouldnt vote him, and all.

I was arguing the actual reasoning behind it, but I never once in those posts said that I wanted to lynch orig that day. I simply noted that I was weary of trusting anti town factions to do what we expected them too.

I know, but in the context it was against the "Say No to Lynching Orig" position. Again, ambivalence. You should have been clearer that you did not want Orig lynched, but that these were issues.

I was clear...I said it about two posts in that I was still against the Orig lynch.

Yup. Believe it or not, I as town did not know the truth of his claim, and thus gave a tentative yes.

For someone with your critical powers, the fact that you even gave a tentative yes is scummy, hence the ambivalence thing.

My "critical" powers? Vollkan, there's a reason that I have a bad town record. I am very bad at scumhunting. The only real skill I have at mafia is defending myself (which I've only recently developed, since I started debate). I made it clear that I leaning towards yes, but was unsure. Also, do you really find it odd that someone who had been absent most of the game might have trouble pinning down his feelings on a claim?

I "jump ship"? what do you mean?
anyways, is it really spectcaular that I post dybeck as my preferred lynch after being pressured into naming a preferred lynch?

Well, your post has certainly changed my mind on the Dybeck claim. Theres a lot of inconsistency there, and the motivation for scum to fake claim cop there is certainly plentiful. So, I'd put my opinion on the Dybeck claim as a tentative no, as opposed to the tentative yes that was there before.

My perception of you that day was in these stages:
1) For Orig lynch
2) Professing to be against Orig lynch but still criticising the sense of keeping him alive
3) Critical the dybeck case
4) Ambivalent on dybeck being cop, though leaning in favour
5) Dybeck isn't cop (deathbed conversion)

alright. is this something that you think a townie is unlikely to go through?

I dont believe that was my first attack. Regardless, /not a scumtell.

It was the first hard stance that I noticed. And no, it isn't a scumtell per se, but it speaks of last minute distancing.

Hard stance and attack are different vollkan. you know this.

I don't hold your number of posts against you.

understood.

[Elias_the_thief]

Um...I was going off of your post's list of uncertains...if you look at that post, you already have dybeck written off as cop or mafia, which was my opinion at the time. I was simply speculating as to the uncertains.

But that's not what you said. You said "Assuming we have 3 scum, there is our scumgroup." You didn't include Dybeck in the equation at all.

This is consistent with my point...I said he was either cop or mafia, and at the time it was before shafteds convincing post on dybeck. This means I still was leaning towards dy being cop. Vollkans post on various peoples opinions at the time a few pages later should confirm this.

Dybeck is an experienced player. Do none of you find it unlikely that he would purposefully NEVER post suspicion on me?

He may be experienced, but he was on the defensive for almost all of D2, having triggered the town's collective scumdar early. And you could just as easily ask the question: why would a mafia purposefully NEVER put suspicion on someone he knew to be town? The answer to both questions is probably the same: the "average mafia" would probably not "purposefully" do either thing. But the fact is, Dybeck has done exactly that. Don't you think it's worth speculating why he treated you differently than everyone else in the game?

Yes, that's exactly my point. I believe he treated me differently because besides him, I would probably be the easiest to get a mislynch on the next day. I believe he was trying to set up my mislynch by never expressing suspicion.

[Elias_the_thief]

Elias, since we're down to just seven players in the game, each of us is naturally coming under closer scrutiny from the others.

Believe it or not, I do find it plausible that you are pro-town and finding yourself in a bad situation. However, I think that if you ARE in that situation, you would serve the town (and yourself) best by advancing theories on who the remaining scum are. So far, you've defended yourself -- all well and good, but tell us, who SHOULD we be focusing on, if not you? If you were to place the rest of us in a scummiest-to-towniest list, what would the order be, and why?

Ok. AlyG is almost certainly tracker. Orig is either vig or SK (SK in my opinion). Lucienne is really hard to read considering how absent she's been. This leaves me with Gemelli, Korlash, and Vollkan (though lucienne isnt out of the picture). Anyways, I'm pretty sure at least one mafioso is in that three. Based on the evidence, Korlash is most likely. He's been acting really wierd about his suspicions towards Vollkan. In addition to that, Oman's behavior day 1 was very suspicious. Also, I think that Oman/Korlash had bigger ties to dybeck then I did. His opinion for a while on dy's claim was "not telling" and then undecided. I'm ambivalent, Vollkan? So yeah. Pretty sure that Omlash is scum. He's the only person besides me (town) who has any what looks like ties to Dybeck.

[Elias_the_thief]

You know what? Dybeck did it. Not me. If you wish to hold it against me, then fine, but I can't explain his actions. More and more I find myself thinking that his day two play was purely for setting up a series of unfortunate events for the town, including the framework to support my mislynch. I think it's perfectly feasible. First, he ran into a LOT of suspicion early day two, explaining why the course of action would be taken. Second, he falseclaimed cop, and didnt even do a good job of it. I believe this was simply an attempt to out the cop. If we take his position from that of a scum trying to stay alive, to a scum trying to hurt the town as much as possible before he goes down, me being town makes a lot more sense.

In other words, you are reducing this to a simple WIFOM:
1) dybeck's play was all designed to set you up for a lynch and that his crappy falseclaiming was not him panicking but was him attempting to out the real cop (that he didn't even know existed and which I had said was unlikely to exist)as a result of him having fallen under suspicion for his play early D2 (are you saying that his crappy play was deliberate?)

OR

2) dybeck just blundered his way through D2

Gemelli referred to Occam's Razor, but I think a different principle is in order; the Sir Bernard Ingham variation of Hanlon's Razor:

Cock-up before conspiracy

Thus, I present my "Cock-up Model":
Dybeck found a confirmed killer of D2 and began to push its lynch. He encountered opposition and got drawn into an enormous debate that pulled him under suspicion. All day long he was fighting his case as the rest of us debated the best course of action. Eventually, dybeck panicked after thinking he was at L-1, or at least was in peril of lynch, and so he claims cop. I don't think this was to draw out the real cop, so much as it was a last-ditch effort to bring Orig down. Dybeck failed miserably and got lynched.

Essentially, yes. This is a simple Wifom. I've said that from the beginning, and have really only been pushing other scenarios to show you how wifom it is. Basically a null point now.

How is a point based on what scum "characteristically do" not affected if you admit that scum do not necessarily act in this way?

I've already explained this. I take what I think to be the most sensible explanation for things and then frame my reasoning and investigation around it. For example, yesterday I had no proof dybeck was mafia but I figured it made most sense to me if he was mafia trying to off Orig. Of course, I wavered at points, because it was only a framework scenario, but gradually it emerges whether or not I am really on the right track or not.

However, as you later admitted, you interpret info to fit your own agenda. Thus, I think your scumhunting style is extremely flawed (for one, its incorrectly fingered me as scum twice now).

k. So basically you're saying his consistent stance towards me is a null tell, since he did it to the majority of players.

Erm..no. I mentioned nothing about a null-tell. I simply said that dybeck only altered his position on myself and shaft.ed, towards the end of the day.

I know you didnt directly say it. I'm drawing a logical conclusion from it, which is that it has nothing to do with me and is thus a null tell. Are you going to argue the point or no?

If you say so. However, be aware that last time, all of your guesses based on Oman's list were wrong. (especially the part where you thought it indicated I was scum)

Yes, and since that I have learnt to be more careful about not becoming entrenched in my frameworks. I interpreted Oman's list as being an actual reflection of things, rather than doing what I should have done: trying to make sense of it and using it without becoming convinced that my thoughts corresponded to what had actually happened.

Alright. I guess if you're not basing it as reasoning towards me being scum I wont argue it. Especially since its your personal interpretation, something that even I can't argue against.

So basically you're saying that you saw the list, saw a few possible scenarios that could explain his reasoning, saw one that gelled nicely with your own assumptions on him, and took it? Is this how you get all of your evidence? Find the possibility that conforms with your predetermined notions and advocate it?

My steps:
1) Look at the available evidence and find the outcome which seems most sensible
2) Investigate, accuse and attack based on that outcome. Since 486, I have learnt to make sure I remember that the outcome is only a framework.
3) Use the results of those inquiries as further sources of information so as to re-assess the validity of the original outcome and to alter as necessary

So youre on step three now, correct?

Ah. So basically you're saying that since I had one similar point to support a similar conclusion, the entire post was echoed from him. Got it. That totally makes sense.

It seemed to be your dominant reason for suspecting Orig.

Go and read the post again. It certainly was not my only reason, and far from the "dominant" one.

The fact that you say "experienced enough to know its not a scumtell" is where I know I can discount what youre saying. Are you familiar with the concept of wifom? Ya know, taking what you think scum wouldnt do and doing it as scum? Besides, I would make the play as scum and town. Its good for town if I am town, it makes me look protown as scum because I do it as town. So what you've got there is a null point.

Not null, just unreadable. You do bandwagon a lot, that's true.

Null tell = unreadable in my opinion. If you cant draw conclusions on my alignment, then its null in relation to my alignment. But this point isnt worth arguing, as its far from relevant.

Ah. So basically you're saying that since I had one similar point to support a similar conclusion, the entire post was echoed from him. Got it. That totally makes sense.

In 988 you went after Orig on the basis of his gut feeling and the fact that he assumed SK. The former of these was dybeck's line and the latter is pretty meaningless.

Did you also see the posts where I outlined that he contradicts himself by showing that his gut pointed the other way? This is a third and entirely new point that I brought up. Even were you to win this point with me, what relevance does the fact that I saw the same faults in someones claim have to do with our alignment in relation to eachother?

I'm sorry, but the downplaying was justified. The fact that you saw the sense in this then should show you how true it is now. I'm not going to say that just because he was scum that all the arguments pointing in that direction were good ones. I believe a similar issue arose in 486 around I think seteal. Go back and read. I disputed all cases against him long after he was proven to be scum.

Wasn't Setael my mason partner in 486? I think you might mean Shanba...

But, as I have said, at the time I was losing faith myself, purely because it was going nowhere. Your downplaying of the points hit at the foundations of my case and caused me to lose my belief that dybeck was scum. I mean, all of those points are scumtells, of varying strength.

If you want to get into a metadebate, I'm all for it. But after the game please. I disagree with you on the validity of those scumtells. Are you going to tell me that my meta opinion on certain tells should show me to be scum or town in any individual game?

Its not ambivalence. I said it wasnt convincing, ie I wouldnt vote for him under normal circumstances. I also said I would vote for him at deadline. I think thats a pretty clear cut idea of what I thought of it, pinpointing when I would and wouldnt vote him, and all.

This is getting into semantics. The "it's alright thing" is ambivalence and neutralisation of the issue. You don't defend, you don't attack. Of course your explanation is "sufficient", but it doesn't change your ambivalent stance.

ambivalence is defined by uncertainty...I gave a clear cut idea of when I would vote for him and when I wouldnt. It's not my fault you interpret this as being uncertain, though frankly, the fact that you do is ridiculous.

I was clear...I said it about two posts in that I was still against the Orig lynch.

I was having to argue pretty damn hard against the Orig lynch, since my only consistent supporter was shaft.ed. You did say you didn't want the lynch, I know that, but you still criticised our case against it without making it patently and consistently clear that you did not want Orig lynch. In that situation, where we were having to argue forcefully, it should have been obvious to you that anything you said in counter to us would be fuelling dybeck's cause.

Is this a bad thing? I was clear that I was against the lynch. I posted it and you missed it. The only result of "feuling the cause" as far as I can tell is a better read for you, which is good. Dont underestimate me Vollkan: I may be a bad scumhunter, but I certainly understand the value of getting reactions out of people (the reason I love bandwagoning).

My "critical" powers? Vollkan, there's a reason that I have a bad town record. I am very bad at scumhunting. The only real skill I have at mafia is defending myself (which I've only recently developed, since I started debate). I made it clear that I leaning towards yes, but was unsure. Also, do you really find it odd that someone who had been absent most of the game might have trouble pinning down his feelings on a claim?

Again, ambivalence. You are now justifying it on having been away. Shaft.ed and I had been attacking the claim and you still took the half-hearted approach.

Um, no. I said yes. I was unsure, but I gave an answer, despite my uncertainty. I am only blaiming the lingering uncertainty on my absense.

alright. is this something that you think a townie is unlikely to go through?

A townie should go through some degree of wavering, but you were consistently indecisive until things became cemented one way or the other. That is a scumtell. It is basically just allowing yourself to fall in with the majority without having to commit to anything.

This is untrue, first of all. I've made several independant points in this game, though I admit my absense has made it hard to get definitive reads. Also, this is not a scumtell, or at least it isnt for me. I have a habit of falling in with the crowd as town. Check my town games, you'll find its a recurring theme, though I'm trying to fix it. Once out of the early stages, my helpfulness to the town is mostly used up. Again, something I'm trying to fix.

Hard stance and attack are different vollkan. you know this.

Semantics. You know what I mean. All day you had been "tentative" about anything to do with dybeck or Orig unless the majority opinion had formed hard on something. Your only definite stance/hard stance/proper attack on dyebck came at the end.

I still disagree. I had formed my opinion on Orig within my very first post back into the game. And again, I contend the validity of this as a scum tell.

[Elias_the_thief]

In other words, you are reducing this to a simple WIFOM:
1) dybeck's play was all designed to set you up for a lynch and that his crappy falseclaiming was not him panicking but was him attempting to out the real cop (that he didn't even know existed and which I had said was unlikely to exist)as a result of him having fallen under suspicion for his play early D2 (are you saying that his crappy play was deliberate?)

OR

2) dybeck just blundered his way through D2

I'm saying his play was not crappy. I'm saying that it was an attempt to make it look crappy. His indignation when I called him a relative noob should reinforce this. Also, even if the possibility of there being cop is uncertain, an attempt to out him would be a good play on his part. It seems to have worked since they managed to hit cop on the following night. I don't think someone who's been playing for two years really "blunders through day 2" anymore.

[Elias_the_thief]

You know what? Dybeck did it. Not me. If you wish to hold it against me, then fine, but I can't explain his actions. More and more I find myself thinking that his day two play was purely for setting up a series of unfortunate events for the town, including the framework to support my mislynch. I think it's perfectly feasible. First, he ran into a LOT of suspicion early day two, explaining why the course of action would be taken. Second, he falseclaimed cop, and didnt even do a good job of it. I believe this was simply an attempt to out the cop. If we take his position from that of a scum trying to stay alive, to a scum trying to hurt the town as much as possible before he goes down, me being town makes a lot more sense.

In other words, you are reducing this to a simple WIFOM:
1) dybeck's play was all designed to set you up for a lynch and that his crappy falseclaiming was not him panicking but was him attempting to out the real cop (that he didn't even know existed and which I had said was unlikely to exist)as a result of him having fallen under suspicion for his play early D2 (are you saying that his crappy play was deliberate?)

OR

2) dybeck just blundered his way through D2

Gemelli referred to Occam's Razor, but I think a different principle is in order; the Sir Bernard Ingham variation of Hanlon's Razor:

Cock-up before conspiracy

Thus, I present my "Cock-up Model":
Dybeck found a confirmed killer of D2 and began to push its lynch. He encountered opposition and got drawn into an enormous debate that pulled him under suspicion. All day long he was fighting his case as the rest of us debated the best course of action. Eventually, dybeck panicked after thinking he was at L-1, or at least was in peril of lynch, and so he claims cop. I don't think this was to draw out the real cop, so much as it was a last-ditch effort to bring Orig down. Dybeck failed miserably and got lynched.

Essentially, yes. This is a simple Wifom. I've said that from the beginning, and have really only been pushing other scenarios to show you how wifom it is. Basically a null point now.

No. Wifom =/= Nullity. From the perspective of inquiries I am taking what seems to be the most likely interpretation of dybeck on the totality of the evidence. This isn't a point you can rebut, or that we can debate over, because, as you say, it is dybeck not you. The fact is that the evidence points to dybeck being scum with you. Yes, it depends on wifom, but that doesn't invalidate the point. You seem to be trying to neutralise the point by calling it wifom. Any attempt to interpret somebody in this game is ultimately wifom; wifom arguments can be made either way on anything.

Exactly. They can be interpreted either way. Do you understand why I feel it's unfair that you use it against me when its equally as likely it could point in an entirely different direction? Saying something like "the fact is" about how this evidence points is ridiculous.

How is a point based on what scum "characteristically do" not affected if you admit that scum do not necessarily act in this way?

I've already explained this. I take what I think to be the most sensible explanation for things and then frame my reasoning and investigation around it. For example, yesterday I had no proof dybeck was mafia but I figured it made most sense to me if he was mafia trying to off Orig. Of course, I wavered at points, because it was only a framework scenario, but gradually it emerges whether or not I am really on the right track or not.

However, as you later admitted, you interpret info to fit your own agenda. Thus, I think your scumhunting style is extremely flawed (for one, its incorrectly fingered me as scum twice now).

Agenda is the wrong word. It implies conscious intention. I form a view of what is most likely based on what I have seen, and then try to to frame things in that light to see what comes of it.

Are you saying you form your framework on accident?

I haven't "incorrectly fingered" you here: 1) Because I don't yet know if I am in error; and

Whether you know it or not has nothing to do with it. You have incorrectly interpreted the info and incorrectly seen me as scum once again.

2) Because I have not "fingered" you. My mistake in 486 was relying too much on my own case framework rather than interpreting what was going on around it.

As I use the phrase, it means to think someone is very likely scum. So yes, you have incorrectly "fingered me" (ew).

Ah. So basically you're saying that since I had one similar point to support a similar conclusion, the entire post was echoed from him. Got it. That totally makes sense.

It seemed to be your dominant reason for suspecting Orig.

Go and read the post again. It certainly was not my only reason, and far from the "dominant" one.

Here is post 988 (So I no longer need to trawl):

Shit shit shit. I had a huge post ligned up but my computer died. Don't worry, this isnt an excuse to get out of content. But it will be less content.

Alright. The AlyG claim? I believe it. Orig admitted to targetting CC, so it's pretty obvious Aly is telling the truth. On the other hand, I find Originality very unlikely. Firstly, I find Originality's argument that he had a gut feeling against carrot day 1, VERY unlikely, since he did not ONCE express any suspicions on CC. The bulk of Origs content is attacking lurkers..if he had suspicion of CC, wouldnt it make sense that he'd say so instead of attacking lurkers? The fact that he had other suspicions and went after lurkers makes me think that he is probably trying a little too hard to appear protown. Second, I find his claim that he killed on gut feeling night 1 very hard to believe. Even if it were his first game as vig, its certainly not his first on the site. I'm certain he knows that lynching on gut is bad for town, so why would he NK on gut? I just dont see why a protown vig would kill on so little...
Anyways, moving on, I find his claim that he had a gut feeling against CC even less likely when you look at this post (344) directly after night scene is revealed.

Uh... This is weird, because carrotcake was pretty quiet imo. I guess ima go with shaft.ed here, in that carrotcake must have scared someone enough into killing him... So AlyG would be a suspect, but i dont know if hes the only one carrotcake was after, so i will that, post in a min.

This definately doesnt sound like someone who had a gut feeling that he was scum. Also, there is this post (368):

I think this hasn't been brought up yet, but do we know for sure which death is mafia kill and which is the sk? I don't know if theres a set pattern here that a certain type of death will tell who killed who, so is there anything im missing here?

In this post, he 1) assumes there is an SK, not a vig, and 2) helps spread the opposite of his later claim by speculating about the SK's killing method. It seems very suspect.
So yeah. Orig is your SK, pretty sure he isnt a vig. His claim doesnt hold water.

vote: originality

The first huge section is about CC, in a similar vein to dybeck. The latter point is that he assumed there was a SK (which fits with him wanting to distance himself anyway). The same goes for the thing about CC being quiet.

Key phrase here is "similar vein". I dredged up entirely new posts by CC and Orig in which he contradicted his own claims. Dybeck only really went as far as to say "omg he wouldnt have nked CC". Besides, Dybeck never even touched on the way that Orig would later contradict himself.

The fact that you say "experienced enough to know its not a scumtell" is where I know I can discount what youre saying. Are you familiar with the concept of wifom? Ya know, taking what you think scum wouldnt do and doing it as scum? Besides, I would make the play as scum and town. Its good for town if I am town, it makes me look protown as scum because I do it as town. So what you've got there is a null point.

Not null, just unreadable. You do bandwagon a lot, that's true.

Null tell = unreadable in my opinion. If you cant draw conclusions on my alignment, then its null in relation to my alignment. But this point isnt worth arguing, as its far from relevant.

No. /ooc A nulltell is something inherently ambiguous in alignment. Something can be unreadable because of a particular player. A good example is Oman. He has done incredibly scummy bandwagoning here and in other games, but often does not get attacked purely because he gets recognised as being unreadable in relation to wagoning.

Yeah...I consider a null tell to be when alignment cannot be derived from an action, universally or individually. This is clearly a difference in interpretation, and not really worth debating.

Ah. So basically you're saying that since I had one similar point to support a similar conclusion, the entire post was echoed from him. Got it. That totally makes sense.

In 988 you went after Orig on the basis of his gut feeling and the fact that he assumed SK. The former of these was dybeck's line and the latter is pretty meaningless.

Did you also see the posts where I outlined that he contradicts himself by showing that his gut pointed the other way? This is a third and entirely new point that I brought up. Even were you to win this point with me, what relevance does the fact that I saw the same faults in someones claim have to do with our alignment in relation to eachother?

Above.

um, no. You dont explain why seeing the same faults in a claim is scummy. Also, you did not respond to the fact that I raised a third point which dybeck had not touched. saying "above" is not sufficient.

I'm sorry, but the downplaying was justified. The fact that you saw the sense in this then should show you how true it is now. I'm not going to say that just because he was scum that all the arguments pointing in that direction were good ones. I believe a similar issue arose in 486 around I think seteal. Go back and read. I disputed all cases against him long after he was proven to be scum.

Wasn't Setael my mason partner in 486? I think you might mean Shanba...

But, as I have said, at the time I was losing faith myself, purely because it was going nowhere. Your downplaying of the points hit at the foundations of my case and caused me to lose my belief that dybeck was scum. I mean, all of those points are scumtells, of varying strength.

If you want to get into a metadebate, I'm all for it. But after the game please. I disagree with you on the validity of those scumtells. Are you going to tell me that my meta opinion on certain tells should show me to be scum or town in any individual game?

I'm just taking it for what it is worth: You neutralised a case on dybeck. That is a strong indictor of alignment. It is not confirmation, but it is something I need to address and deal with to better see what is going on here.

No, it isnt a strong indicator of alignment, its a strong indicator of me seeing a bad case and shooting it down. You even backed down. My neutralisation was well founded. I shoot down bad cases when I see them, regardless of alignment, because I play that way as town, and can blend in as scum that way, based on my town play. So as I would say, null tell. As you would say, unreadable.

/kind of ooc, but maybe not: I just had a thought: Is it possible the reason we clash so much is that our playstyles are polar opposites? I focus on drawing out cases with evidence, often raising points I don't even consider conclusive, just to make argument and debate things and garner reactions and so on. In contrast, you seem to always play the role of a neutraliser; in that you don't even strike back at people, you just reduce everything to a thing on meta-opinion (at least with me). I'm just wondering how much of this is actually because our ideas are completely at odds?

I think we clash so much, not because we're polar opposites, but we disagree on some major points, and we're both intelligent in argumentation. However, we're not so different. We both see the major importance of genuine reactions, and we can see eye to eye on at least a few things. Really, I enjoy playing with you a lot. You at least make me think. Hopefully at the end of this game you'll take something away once again, and improve your playstyle once again (hint: its because I'm once again town).

Its not ambivalence. I said it wasnt convincing, ie I wouldnt vote for him under normal circumstances. I also said I would vote for him at deadline. I think thats a pretty clear cut idea of what I thought of it, pinpointing when I would and wouldnt vote him, and all.

This is getting into semantics. The "it's alright thing" is ambivalence and neutralisation of the issue. You don't defend, you don't attack. Of course your explanation is "sufficient", but it doesn't change your ambivalent stance.

ambivalence is defined by uncertainty...I gave a clear cut idea of when I would vote for him and when I wouldnt. It's not my fault you interpret this as being uncertain, though frankly, the fact that you do is ridiculous.

Because it downplays the case. You are neither for or against it, but you would support it when push comes to shove.

First, the downplaying was a justified action regardless of my alignment. Second, what does it matter if I'm for or against it entirely? An attempt to say that I must either be for or against it at all times, rather then vote if need be, but not otherwise, is really an oversimplification of how the game is played. Or at least, how I play it.

Hard stance and attack are different vollkan. you know this.

Semantics. You know what I mean. All day you had been "tentative" about anything to do with dybeck or Orig unless the majority opinion had formed hard on something. Your only definite stance/hard stance/proper attack on dyebck came at the end.

I still disagree. I had formed my opinion on Orig within my very first post back into the game. And again, I contend the validity of this as a scum tell.

We're running in circles now. I wanted continual definite stance, and you say that you had formed it in the beginning, to which I say you should have affirmed it.

I didnt affirm my opinion? first post back into the game, 988:

So yeah. Orig is your SK, pretty sure he isnt a vig. His claim doesnt hold water.
vote: originality

Anyway,

Unvote

The debate has reached the double-rebuttal limit and nothing substantative has emerged.

Deja vu.

I'm saying his play was not crappy. I'm saying that it was an attempt to make it look crappy. His indignation when I called him a relative noob should reinforce this. Also, even if the possibility of there being cop is uncertain, an attempt to out him would be a good play on his part. It seems to have worked since they managed to hit cop on the following night. I don't think someone who's been playing for two years really "blunders through day 2" anymore.

Again, cock-up before conspiracy. I don't like arguments like this because they are a higher order of wifom.

"higher order"? What makes it a "higher order"? All it requires is for dybeck to create an illusion that he is a poor player in order to orchestrate a mislynch...I've done it before. Its really not that uncommon.

[Elias_the_thief]

What I think I need to see is one of the following:

(1) A strong argument that provides evidence of why the Elias/Dybeck pair does NOT make sense, or
(2) A strong argument for why another player is a MORE LIKELY candidate than Elias for being scum with Dybeck.

Does it bother you that the "evidence" towards me being with Dybeck depends entirely on wifom interpretation, and could mean entirely the opposite of the way Vollkan is interpreting it? (pretty likely, because I'm town). I'm starting to think you're our third scum. I've already presented evidence as to Korlash having ties to Dy, though nothing compared to what Vollkan did. Second, I'm pretty sure we're in LYLO here *at the very least, potentially). Are you really going to trust the game deciding lynch on the fact that theres nothing better then a weak connection case?

[Elias_the_thief]

um, no. You dont explain why seeing the same faults in a claim is scummy. Also, you did not respond to the fact that I raised a third point which dybeck had not touched. saying "above" is not sufficient.

Which is the third point? (just bold it or something)

Dybeck simply pointed out that the NK was unlikely. I outlined specific posts in which Orig contradicted his own statements, as well as the possibility of having the gut feeling. So not only did I say it was unlikely, I pointed out the contradictions.

No, it isnt a strong indicator of alignment, its a strong indicator of me seeing a bad case and shooting it down. You even backed down. My neutralisation was well founded. I shoot down bad cases when I see them, regardless of alignment, because I play that way as town, and can blend in as scum that way, based on my town play. So as I would say, null tell. As you would say, unreadable.

As I have said, I backed down because I was losing confidence myself and then your criticism cemented my doubt. As for the scumtell thing, this is again a difference of opinion. I see all of those as scumtells, whereas you see most as negligible.

It is a scum tell to shoot down a bad case?

"higher order"? What makes it a "higher order"? All it requires is for dybeck to create an illusion that he is a poor player in order to orchestrate a mislynch...I've done it before. Its really not that uncommon.

Right. It is wifom for me to say that dybeck's behaviour points at alignment. It deepens the wifom even more to say that dybeck played in a consciously bad manner in order to implicate yourself.

Not really. Basically we are on the same level. There are two major options here: He was either playing poorly and indicated a buddy due to bad play, or he knew youd think that, and thus indicated a townie. Frankly, for someone with 2 years of experience, I think that the latter is much more likely.

[Elias_the_thief]

Does it bother you that the "evidence" towards me being with Dybeck depends entirely on wifom interpretation, and could mean entirely the opposite of the way Vollkan is interpreting it? (pretty likely, because I'm town). I'm starting to think you're our third scum. I've already presented evidence as to Korlash having ties to Dy, though nothing compared to what Vollkan did. Second, I'm pretty sure we're in LYLO here *at the very least, potentially). Are you really going to trust the game deciding lynch on the fact that theres nothing better then a weak connection case?

Appealing to emotion by raising the fear of a possible (improbable) LYLO, and by making a veiled threat to go after me as scum, does nothing to bolster your argument, nor does it affect my current perception of you. Let's move on.

Um....Are you dense or something? How in hell is bringing up the possibility of LYLO an appeal to emotion in any sense of the word? The purpose in mentioning it is that we have to be careful in our lynches because of our precarious position. This has nothing to do with emotion. At all. The way in which it pretains to my defense is that in the case that we are that close to LYLO, the current case against me is not strong enough to take that big a risk. This is purely an assessment of the amount of danger town is in right now. Also, my post was in no way "veiled threat". It was much more an indication that you are my number 2 in terms of who is likely to be scum. Honestly, are you just lying to make me look bad now or what?

Most of my suspicion against you boils down to the single key point we've been talking about since D3 started: Dybeck treated you differently than every single player remaining in the game. I think this is notable.

So far, what I've seen in response is conjecture on the other side of the fence: he COULD have been doing this as an elaborate plot to frame you. This is true. But it's just as plausible to me that he simply failed to bus you until he had already committed to locking in on Originality, at which point it was too late for him to switch gears without dooming himself.

I don't think this is an ironclad argument either way. What I'm saying is that it does create a serious level of suspicion in my mind that you may be mafia.

Up to here I agree with you, however, as my above statement indicated, this little piece of evidence should not be enough to lynch off of in this stage of the game. Now, here comes the part where I disagree with you (well, not the first part, but whatever).

While I agree that Korlash's behavior does inspire suspicion, I would not go so far as to say that the case against him is markedly stronger than the case against you. Both could currently be described as "weak connection cases" at this point. Fortunately, we're not under a deadline and there's plenty of time left to talk turkey.

Um...what exactly is the case on me besides the connection point? Essentially nothing, as you have just pointed out, besides that connection point. However, the Korlash case, in addition to the "connection" dates back to the behavior of Oman, which was notably scummy, and his actions today in his inexplicable switches on his LoS. To say that the case on Korlash is only the connection case seems kind of makes it seem like youre overlooking a major something, and not accidentally either.

One point that we haven't really discussed: you took the time to analyze and respond to Vollkan's consolidated case against Dybeck at some length. But you needed to be prompted to look at shaft.ed's summary case against Oman, and did not look at the additional points I raised vs. Oman at all (though you said you were going to). Again, one interpretation of this would be that you had a vested interest in poking holes in the Dybeck case, but didn't see any reason to interfere with the case against Oman. What is your side of the story there?

Really, I don't know. If there's anything I can say I have in this game right now, its a reputation of not living up to my promises. If I'm in the the mood to post, I will. But if I'm not, and promise content, I probably won't get around to it. Thats as good as an excuse as I can give. But let me say this: were I scum, I imagine that the most likely partner you guys would turn to would be korlash (for obvious ties to Dybeck equivalent to what I had, as well as what could be seen as distancing with me about the content). Now, were we a big happy mafia family, why would I ignore a case on one and attack the other?

That being said, I will now add to the Korlash case:
does anyone think the way that Korlash came into the game seemed a little suspicious? His first real post in the game, 1087 I think (4th actual post if youre using the parser) he makes absolutely NO mention of any cases on Dybeck, but simply comes into the game with all guns firing at Vollkan. Am I the only one who is reads this as a big fat distraction? He makes mention of Orig also, a smaller issue, but ignores Dybeck all the way up until his 11th post, post 1125. Thats a damn long time. And even then, he only mentions him as a possibility of being Vollkans second scumbuddy. He continues to hole this opinion for some time, without ever really backing it up. In his 48th post, 1267, he lists Dybeck as only 45% chance of being scum, despite considering him an almost certain third member of the scumteam for some time. In post 1279, suddenly Dybeck is listed as his top suspect (with me alongside). Wait, I thought a second ago you just werent completely certain on his claim, and had him at 45%? Also, in 55, 1310, suddenly shafted is rated near last on his LoS, and several players below Dybeck on his LoS he lists stronger reasons for suspecting them. In his 59th, 1334, he finally votes Dybeck, for being unhelpful. Wow. Thats all for now, but does anyone else see a completely unexplained shift over to Dybeck being #1 as the town began to feel that way?

[Elias_the_thief]

Um....Are you dense or something? How in hell is bringing up the possibility of LYLO an appeal to emotion in any sense of the word?

You're a debator, so I'm assuming you are familiar with this stuff. The fact that we may be in LYLO has no bearing on the argument of whether or not you are mafia. And thanks for the bit of ad hominem there, too.

Um...no. This is not an appeal to emotion 1) because my words are not intended to instill fear and 2) I am not using this to support the claim that I am not mafia. Secondly, it is not an ad hominem, because I'm asking you. If I had said you were dense it would have been an ad hom. Further, I wasnt using it to discredit your argument.

The way in which it pretains to my defense is that in the case that we are that close to LYLO, the current case against me is not strong enough to take that big a risk. This is purely an assessment of the amount of danger town is in right now.

You're missing the point. If I felt that the case against you was strong enough, I would have voted for you already. Right now, I do not think the case against Korlash is all that strong either.

Alright, but thats the whole reason I presented our proximity to LYLO anyways, not at all to say I'm not mafia. Youre missing my point as well.

Also, my post was in no way "veiled threat". It was much more an indication that you are my number 2 in terms of who is likely to be scum. Honestly, are you just lying to make me look bad now or what?

OK, that's twice that you've mentioned me as a scum candidate now. And apparently I'm a liar for viewing that as a threat. Nice. Well, since you've brought it up, maybe you can explain your case against me? I mean, above and beyond the fact that I suspect you, obviously. Clearly you have reasons to find me suspicious; let's hear them.

You're a liar mainly because it was in no way veiled, and that stating you as my number two is not "threatening" you. You didnt say "I fell threatened" You said that it was a threat. There is a difference between feeling threatened and stating as a matter of fact that I threatened you. Had you said the former, I would not have had a problem. Anyways, my reasons are mainly process of elmination, based on who I think is NOT scum, but I will try to form a case later tonight.

Um...what exactly is the case on me besides the connection point? Essentially nothing, as you have just pointed out, besides that connection point.

We have:

(1) Dybeck's preferential treatment of you for the entire game, and
(2) Your different responses to the cases against Oman/Korlash and Dybeck

That's not "essentially nothing." We have exactly one scum player confirmed at this point. I believe that the best leads we can get should be drawn from that player's behavior towards others, and from others' behaviors towards him. Right now, the links between you and Dybeck are stronger than those between Oman/Korlash and Dybeck. Change my mind!

Um...right. I said essentially nothing besides the connection. You've just basically repeated the connection case. Also, I just presented some good points towards Korlashs links to Dybeck.

To say that the case on Korlash is only the connection case seems kind of makes it seem like youre overlooking a major something, and not accidentally either.

Another accusation. Are you implying that I'm aligned with Korlash, in spite of the fact that I was one of the people who presented the big D2 case against Oman and pushed most consistently for his lynch?

I'll say it again: I want to focus on people's ties to Dybeck first and foremost. Korlash's behavior is suspect, absolutely. But I find his ties to Dybeck to be more of a reach at this point than yours.

More of a reach? He ignored the issue for 11 posts during the rise of the Dybeck case!

Really, I don't know. If there's anything I can say I have in this game right now, its a reputation of not living up to my promises. If I'm in the the mood to post, I will. But if I'm not, and promise content, I probably won't get around to it. Thats as good as an excuse as I can give. But let me say this: were I scum, I imagine that the most likely partner you guys would turn to would be korlash (for obvious ties to Dybeck equivalent to what I had, as well as what could be seen as distancing with me about the content). Now, were we a big happy mafia family, why would I ignore a case on one and attack the other?

Honestly, if you are confirmed as Mafia, I think it's just as likely (maybe more) that you and Dybeck are aligned with Lucienne, based purely on observed behaviors and the reasoning you've just provided.

I don't understand how I'm connected to Lucienne, but its not worth getting into until tomorrow.

[Elias_the_thief]

(2) You said "I'm starting to think you're our third scum" when you were reacting to my suspicions of you. I called this a veiled threat because it looked very much to me like you were suggesting that you were going to start going after me because I was posting suspicions of you. If you're going to tell me that person A's perception of person B's actions are "lies" if they don't match up with that person B's intent, please make that explicit so that I can re-review your PBPA with that principle in mind.

The emphasis is mainly on the "veiled" which has negative connotation. The point is that I was fully open about the fact that I suspected you as the third scum. But I'm perfectly willing to move on.

My main reason that I added that bit is because I consider Korlash to be the most likely scum. The fact that I feel that the case for him is a whole lot greater then the one on me leads me to suspect a connection as you continue to insist that the cases against me and Oman are comparable. And at the same time, you have failed to present any case against me besides things directly pretaining to the supposed "connection" to Dybeck.

[Elias_the_thief]

I've read the Gemelli/Elias debate and I have comments to make. Unlike the Elias/Korlash pissing match, this is relevant.

I have issues with both of you.

(1) We can split hairs all day on whether your posts are appeals to emotion and ad hominem. You posted that the case on you was not vote-worthy because we are in (or close to) LYLO. I viewed your post as being motivated by a desire to raise uncertainty about the case against you; you claim that your intent was simply to advocate caution. You claim that asking someone "are you dense" is not the same thing as telling someone "you are dense." (I'm trying to figure out how you came by that way of thinking. Are you syphillytic? Does mental illness run in your family? Were you dropped on your head as a child?) Ultimately, all I was trying to say is that I am not going to allow the specter of LYLO to influence my decision of who is the best lynch candidate today. Dead horse; needs no further beating.

I read over your debate on this point

Elias, I understand what you were saying, that in our situation we don't want to risk a lynch on weak connexions. Frankly, however, I fail to see how that concern is relevant at this stage. Your lynch was not impending, so why raise the prospect? At this stage (non-deadline and no wagon) it is blatant fear-mongering. I've done the same thing myself as scum, because it is an effective means of creating doubt.

First, I think it's clear that we are very different in terms of playstyle. I personally have not done this as scum and I'm not doing it as scum now. Anyways, if you go back and read his post, he sounded like he had pretty much made up his mind.

What I think I need to see is one of the following:

(1) A strong argument that provides evidence of why the Elias/Dybeck pair does NOT make sense, or
(2) A strong argument for why another player is a MORE LIKELY candidate than Elias for being scum with Dybeck.

I'd also like to hear from AlyG and Lucienne, obviously. Even a quick scumdar rundown from them would help quite a bit.

To me, it seemed that him voting me based on this alone seemed pretty inevitable. I simply brought it up to point out that it shouldnt take evidence against my case from preventing a vote from him. Maybe I overreacted, but not by much, I think.

Additionally, calling someone "dense" is not ad hom if you then proceed to logically deconstruct your opponent's position. Here, however, Elias's rebuttal was (uncharacteristically) flawed.

It's flawed how exactly? I believe bringing up what I did was very justified, and I stand by that it was not an appeal to emotion.

We have:

(1) Dybeck's preferential treatment of you for the entire game, and
(2) Your different responses to the cases against Oman/Korlash and Dybeck

That's not "essentially nothing." We have exactly one scum player confirmed at this point. I believe that the best leads we can get should be drawn from that player's behavior towards others, and from others' behaviors towards him. Right now, the links between you and Dybeck are stronger than those between Oman/Korlash and Dybeck. Change my mind!

Gemelli, you keep talking about "preferential treatment". Please define and give examples.

I second this request.

That being said, I will now add to the Korlash case:
does anyone think the way that Korlash came into the game seemed a little suspicious? His first real post in the game, 1087 I think (4th actual post if youre using the parser) he makes absolutely NO mention of any cases on Dybeck, but simply comes into the game with all guns firing at Vollkan. Am I the only one who is reads this as a big fat distraction? He makes mention of Orig also, a smaller issue, but ignores Dybeck all the way up until his 11th post, post 1125. Thats a damn long time. And even then, he only mentions him as a possibility of being Vollkans second scumbuddy. He continues to hole this opinion for some time, without ever really backing it up. In his 48th post, 1267, he lists Dybeck as only 45% chance of being scum, despite considering him an almost certain third member of the scumteam for some time. In post 1279, suddenly Dybeck is listed as his top suspect (with me alongside). Wait, I thought a second ago you just werent completely certain on his claim, and had him at 45%? Also, in 55, 1310, suddenly shafted is rated near last on his LoS, and several players below Dybeck on his LoS he lists stronger reasons for suspecting them. In his 59th, 1334, he finally votes Dybeck, for being unhelpful. Wow. Thats all for now, but does anyone else see a completely unexplained shift over to Dybeck being #1 as the town began to feel that way?

This is all valid and has my endorsement.

For now, I am eagerly awaiting Korlash's next post, containing

scumdar and responses to the accusations levelled against him

(bolded because people avoiding things pisses me off).

You and us all.

[Elias_the_thief]

As I said above:

First, I think it's clear that we are very different in terms of playstyle. I personally have not done this as scum and I'm not doing it as scum now. Anyways, if you go back and read his post, he sounded like he had pretty much made up his mind.

What I think I need to see is one of the following:

(1) A strong argument that provides evidence of why the Elias/Dybeck pair does NOT make sense, or
(2) A strong argument for why another player is a MORE LIKELY candidate than Elias for being scum with Dybeck.

I'd also like to hear from AlyG and Lucienne, obviously. Even a quick scumdar rundown from them would help quite a bit.

To me, it seemed that him voting me based on this alone seemed pretty inevitable. I simply brought it up to point out that it shouldnt take evidence against my case from preventing a vote from him. Maybe I overreacted, but not by much, I think.

[Elias_the_thief]

About the "treatment" post:
1021 was critical about a dybeck case, not noncomittal. 1025 was posted by vollkan not me. 1029 was questioning a deadline. 1255 is a tentative yes, not being noncommittal.
1272 was defending myself from bogus accusations, not attacking korlash. Your post really isnt nearly as strong when you take out the untrue.

[Elias_the_thief]

Sorry, got one of the #s wrong; 1025 should be 1035.

and I'm undecided AlyG.

This was a response to AlyG asking if you were going to stick with your vote on orig; the two major wagons at this point were Dybeck and Oman. I cited this as a "noncommittal" on Dybeck because of the context and because you were not stating an opinion either way. You could view this as a noncommittal on Oman too.

So basically youre saying I was acting equally towards the two in this post.

Gemelli: as for the Dybeck wagon/case, its alright, but its not too convincing. I would probably be willing to vote Dybeck at deadline, though I'd rather lynch orig who i think is certain scum. Also, I asked for Shafted to outline the Oman case, he never did. If you would be willing to, I'd be happy to listen and tell you what I think.

This is noncommittal.

I specifically stated when I would vote for him and when I wouldnt...thats noncomittal?

My opinion on the dybeck claim? I dunno yet. ... I dont see any reason to seriously disbelieve his claim right now, so for now its a tentative yes.

This is noncommittal, leaning towards support of Dybeck.

How can I be noncommittal and support Dybeck at the same time. Please choose one, interpreting it as both doesnt make sense. For the record, I was saying yes I believed it unless I saw good evidence otherwise. Thus the tentative.

And I cited 1272 as an example of you starting to turn on Dybeck, not an example of you attacking Korlash.

I like the subtle use of "starting to turn on" to imply betrayal. But no, I was swayed by Shafteds post, in which he provided very good reasons to doubt Dybecks claim. Can you not see how a townie is perfectly capable of making that shift in light of evidence?

So if I update the first sentence after "Day 2" to read "Elias made four posts in which he was

either noncommittal towards, or challenging of, Vollkan's case against Dybeck

," do you agree that what I've posted is accurate?

In either case, I think this demonstrates that you have been inclined to act more favorably towards Dybeck than you were towards Oman under similar circumstances.

Two of those I dont agree were noncommittal, and the other I feel is equally noncommittal to both sides. So no, I dont agree.

[Elias_the_thief]

as for the Dybeck wagon/case, its alright, but its not too convincing. I would probably be willing to vote Dybeck at deadline

I was not going to vote him under normal circumstances, but I would vote him at deadline.

The game with me and Vollkan (both town) was Mini 486. We had a large debate similar to the one we had here. Though Oman was in it, only for a brief period. You may be able to get a decent read on him. Come to think of it, Vollkan really wasnt in it too long either. But he still had a large amount of content.

[Elias_the_thief]

I figure he was just waiting for Korlash to show up. I'll post tomorrow with responses and such.

[Elias_the_thief]

Given the responses from others, I dont think I need to post a response to Kor's rebuttal. That being said, I'd like a

votecount

[Elias_the_thief]

I've never been a fan of using percentages. But here's my list, in order of likely scum (mafia):
1 Korlash
2 Gemelli
3 Lucienne (I dont have much of a read though)
4 Vollkan
5-6 AlyG (tracker) & Orig (SK or vig, probably SK)
7 Elias

[Elias_the_thief]

Gemelli merits the number two spot in an absense of anyone better, mainly. AlyG and orig can be written off, I think. With Korlash my number one, that leaves Vollkan, Lucienne, and Gemelli. Lucienne is really hard to get a read on, but I didnt find anything particularly scummy about her few posts. Between Vollkan and Gemelli, Gemelli is the obvious choice. Also, coupled with the fact that she claims the case against me and against Korlash are comparable, when the main beef on me is what Dybeck did, and against Korlash is what Dybeck did, his own wierd behavior, and the behavior of Oman. I think if Korlash comes up scum, Gemelli is pretty certainly our scum.

[Elias_the_thief]

Well, I'm always defensive. Check my other games. As for the content thing, I'm not willing to post much because im pretty sure Korlash is scum, and the only thing prompting me to post more is defense. I will probably vote kor tomorrow.

[Elias_the_thief]

Why do you think that the Korlash/Gemelli case is not a strong possibility?

I have Gemelli as my second because I feel the case on Korlash is stronger. If I can;t go back and form my own reasons for thinking someone is scummy this late in the game, I probably wont have them top of list. Anyways, if me and Gemelli both have eachother as number two, why should you be concerned with our link? Tomorrow one of us would be lynched anyways, so you'd get scum.

[Elias_the_thief]

i dont think orig would nk tonight, because it would mean his loss as well.

[Elias_the_thief]

I have Gemelli as my second because I feel the case on Korlash is stronger. If I can;t go back and form my own reasons for thinking someone is scummy this late in the game, I probably wont have them top of list. Anyways, if me and Gemelli both have eachother as number two, why should you be concerned with our link? Tomorrow one of us would be lynched anyways, so you'd get scum.

If Korlash is town and is lynched today, that makes us open D4 at 3:2 (bcs). On the off-chance that my theory is wrong in that scenario, then we would lose outright by mislynching. That's why I am concerned.

I'm saying that the fact that we have eachother number two should rule out the possibility of us being scum together, because it ensures scum lynched tomorrow, which is a stupid move.

What is interesting here is that Korlash and ELias are very close, then there is a drop to Gemelli and Lucienne, who are the same, then there is an event further drop to myself, Orig and AlyG.

I don't think it's that interesting. It's just how people feel.

[Elias_the_thief]

Since then, I've read through Elias's game history, and found that he has a history of successful bussing attacks similar in tone to the one he had with Korlash, making that less of a factor.

examples?

[Elias_the_thief]

so yeah...I've heard all that I want to hear today really. I'm probably going to place my vote on Korlash soon. As a sidenote to Orig, I dont see how you can still consider me a better lynch candidate when Vollkan and I essentially debated to a standstill, and Korlash's connection to Dybeck is at least equal. Combined with the case based on his own behavior, and Oman's, I really dont understand the vote.

[Elias_the_thief]

I'm not unsure. I think I've explained thoroughly why I think Korlash is scum. I'm waiting to see how everyone responds to the prospect of me voting. Though it's kind of obvious that I'm looking for reactions now, thanks to you.

[Elias_the_thief]

Tell me, what is the benefit of waiting to vote as scum?

[Elias_the_thief]

First, you're voting for me based on the fact that I did something, when you can't find any concievable signifigant benefit scum from it? I mean, quicklynches are nice, but the only people that havent really posted recently are dybeck and alyg, pretty certainly not mafia, and besides, a quicklynch isnt even an issue when days been going on this long.

Anyways, first, theres a difference between saying I'll vote soon and I'll vote tomorrow. Therefore, you get different reactions. The fact that I'm getting this kneejerk illfounded vote from you shows very well that I've received different reactions.

[Elias_the_thief]

For clarity, I was actually going to vote when I made the original post six days ago, and I actually mean to now. Things came up 6 days ago however.

First, you're voting for me based on the fact that I did something, when you can't find any concievable signifigant benefit scum from it?

No. I'm voting for you because I find your explanation of "waiting for reactions" to be contrived, given the fact that you've repeated your "reaction prompt" twice in six days.

Again, what benefit does scum have in being contrived in such a remark? You've shown no reason that scum would do this, so it's not a tell.

Anyways, first, theres a difference between saying I'll vote soon and I'll vote tomorrow. Therefore, you get different reactions. The fact that I'm getting this kneejerk illfounded vote from you shows very well that I've received different reactions.

Serious hairsplitting on the phrasing point, especially since you obviously didn't mean it when you said "I'll probably vote tomorrow" six days ago.

I always split hairs. That's how I play. And I did mean to vote six days ago, however new issues came up.

And let's be clear: you didn't get a reaction from me because you worded it differently. You got a reaction (1) because you said the same thing twice, (2) because your explanation that you were waiting for reactions doesn't jibe with the fact that you said the same thing 6 days ago, and (3) because the combination of points 1 and 2 looks very much like an attempt to send a signal of some sort.

Firstly, what signal am I trying to send when days been going on for so long? Until you explain this, you'll just continue to sound stupid, pressing ideas that you haven't even formulated. Anyways, it doesnt matter which aspect of my posts got the reaction, I got it.

Also, once again it's worth noting that your posts in the game come few and far between unless you're defending yourself, at which point you start posting in batches. Are you scum hunting? Or just trying to save your own skin?

I'm trying to save my own skin. That's how I play. In addition to this being my playstyle, I'm fairly certain that Korlash is scum, and I don't really think I need to scumhunt that much today. However, I think it's clear that my test for reactions was scumhunting. Are you trying to discredit me, or simply me? And this wierd reaction to an enitrely innocent post is really not helping your case as his buddy, considering as its in response to me raising the prospect of voting him.

Anyhoo, as promised,

unvote

(dont think i was voting somone, but better safe then sorry)

vote: korlash

.

[Elias_the_thief]

How is that a change of story? The first post you quoted is specifically in reference to the post I made yesterday. Why do you believe that having the intention of eventually voting, but also having the intention to hold off to get reactions first, are mutually exclusive?

[Elias_the_thief]

I never claimed to be searching for reactions the first time. The only reason the "difference" between the two instances came up was that he was challenging that any reactions I get from saying it now I should have gotten then.

[Elias_the_thief]

**Apologies for a pissed off post**

I really can't believe that I'm being the one forced to claim...the case on korlash is clearly stronger, based on the fact that there is a case besides the connection, while the entire case on me is the connection...I havent done anything exceedingly scummy all game besides lurk through the middle section of the game (when I thought I was being replaced). And yet I am the one at -1, I am the one forced to claim. This is ridiculous. You know what puts the icing on the cake though? Gemelli's jump. For a while now he's been saying that Korlash is more scummy, and now he jumps on me because I was attempting to get reactions? And even after I've defeated the bulk of his argument, (seeing as he doesnt even address my latest defenses) he does not unvote? Furthermore, I love how no one else seems to see how strong the connection between korlash and gemelli is. He switched his vote to someone who he said was second scummiest for essentially nothing! It's so incredibly obvious that Korlash and he are scumbuddies it's not even funny! Do you think it's a coincidence that Gemelli found an excuse to jump on me almost immediately after I got my second vote? My god, if I get lynched today and not Korlash, and the town ends up losing this game, I will be so fucking pissed, because for once I have a chance to improve my terrible town record and everyone seems to busy pressuring me for a claim to look at the evidence that's right there.

You want your claim?

I'm vanilla town

. I dont have some confirmable role to save my ass. I can only hope that people can see the sense in voting Korlash over me.

**If someone hammers for this, they are retarded. It is my playstyle to get pissed off**

[Elias_the_thief]

As a sidenote, I will not be able to post again til sunday.

[Elias_the_thief]

I'm back, though at present I don't have much to add. Waiting for Spurgistan to be up to date seems like a good idea.

[Elias_the_thief]

For a recent example of my playstyle if you want it, see mini 515 where I just won as scum. Also check my wiki for other games, if metaing is your thing. I dont know if that helps you guys or not.
*shrug*

[Elias_the_thief]

I still dont see why you can value the Gemelli/Korlash team so low, especially after gems incredibly dumb vote on me right after I got one vote, especially when he continued to rate korlash number one and me number two.

[Elias_the_thief]

Well, I guess it does seem more obvious from my point of view. But I would really hate to be lynched tomorrow if Korlash comes up scum, as I'm really not linked to him.

[Elias_the_thief]

It also kind of annoys me that as it stands I would be the deadline lynch.

[Elias_the_thief]

even with your vote tying things, in the event of a tie the player who had the votes the longest is lynched. And seeing as Gemelli and korlash are almost certain buddies (and least from my perspective) then you can guess where his vote will be going. It comes down to spurg, and a lurker. Great.

[Elias_the_thief]

prod/ replace lucienne?

[Elias_the_thief]

unfortunately, it is up to the mod to accept the vote, not you.

I don't really have an opinion on lucienne, or not a strong one at least. Her few posts seem town, and I don't see much of a connection from her to anybody. That being said, I really hope shes returns and posts or is replaced, as its hard to play a game with one player not here. As it is, Gemelli is scummier/has stronger ties to korlash then lucienne. I just dont see lucienne being scum with kor (i know this ties me to her, but since I'm not scum, its all good)

[Elias_the_thief]

I still dont see why you can value the Gemelli/Korlash team so low, especially after gems incredibly dumb vote on me right after I got one vote, especially when he continued to rate korlash number one and me number two.

Elias, if it turns out that you actually ARE town in this game, please come back to this post when it's over. Taking a hostile, condescending tone in posts like this -- and not for the first time this game -- may go a long way towards explaining your poor record in games as town.

Please try not to be a hypocrit. You call ME condescending, while you pretend to know why I have a bad town record. For the record, I will not go back to this post when the game is over. You see, good players have these things called playstyles. The point of a playstyle is to try to make yourself sound as similar as possible from game to game despite alignment. I can consistently sound condescending as scum and town, thus I incoporate it into my playstyle. Especially since this is something I've only been doing in my last 2 town games (record: 1-1) you really don't know what the fuck youre talking about. As I went 1-4 before I started doing this, and 1-1 since, I think its improving my play. But thanks for the advice, however useless it is.

Your "case" against me has boiled down primarily to the fact that I'm suspicious of you, and putting pressure on you to contribute to the game. (If there are other things that cause you to suspect me, please do us all a favor and make them explicit.) I have a strong hunch that if someone was pointing a finger at you using the same type of argument that you're using against me, you'd throw a fit and call it a WIFOM-based weak connection case. I know myself to be town, but I certainly don't assume that people who suspect me are scum just for posting their suspicions.

I never assume that. It's a common misconception about my play. It amuses me how often bad players will attack me on these grounds. Anyways, you make it seem as if I've posted some case and youve shown it to be false; this isnt the truth. I simply havent posted a case, because I dont see the need today. There are much better NK targets for scum tonight then me, and I've made up my mind for today. I'll post a case tomorrow, when it's relevant. Till then, I wont.

Anyway, please go back and review my posts from D2. I stayed pretty focused on Oman as a prime suspect from the moment I entered the game. And I kept after Korlash after he replaced in, though I treated him differently as he has a different posting style. If you look at the whole game, I am pretty damn sure that there's more evidence AGAINST the Gemelli/Korlash pairing in this thread than there is FOR it.

Distancing is fun isnt it.

And seeing as Gemelli and korlash are almost certain buddies (and least from my perspective) then you can guess where his vote will be going. It comes down to spurg, and a lurker. Great.

Since D3 started, I placed two votes: first on Korlash, and then on you. Both were pressure votes designed to elicit reactions. Hell, just a few hours ago, I posted that you and Korlash are pretty much dead even on my list. In my opinion, I've treated the two of you pretty much equally today, and I am at a loss as to why you've ignored all of my D3 play that hasn't been directed at you. You're either scum trying to save his own skin by throwing suspicion onto a townie, or a townie with a serious persecution complex. Trying to decide which explanation applies to you has been incredibly frustrating.

You know how easy it is to do something and then say "it was for pressure?". Simply put, I dont believe your vote was pressure. I believe you only changed it because you got called out on how bad the reasoning was.

In the end, there is enough doubt in my mind about your alignment that I think I will probably favor a Korlash lynch today. I've read a few more games of yours, and the sort of rampant hostility you've displayed here seems to be something that shows up when you play as town, not so much when you play as scum. (Which, again, may be something to think about if you'd like to improve that town record ) As of this moment, I think that Korlash is a safer bet as our D3 lynch.

Ha, its funny because you think you have a better idea of my playstyle then I do. As indicated by my wiki, my games arent in chronological order, so you really dont have any idea which games were played before my shift in playstyle, and which werent. Despite this, at least you've come to realize that my hostility is not a scumtell, I do it always.

Regardless, I'm fine with personal attacks. Call me an idiot, call me whatever, but the commentary on my playstyle is not needed. First, you dont know enough about my completed games, my past playstyle, or about my personality to realistically have any hope of improving my play. Second, you have no completed games (that I can see). To pretend that you are some guru who can improve my town play (which isnt even that bad by the way, I got screwed over in a couple games*) just makes you come across as a condescending asshole. At least when I'm a condescending asshole, I usually know what I'm talking about.

* games I got screwed in as town:

430:

town was modkilled into near lynch or lose then NKed the next night. town made the wrong choice without me in LYLO.

355:

modkilled directly into LYLO, and low activity led to a bad lynch, though with little help from me.

462:

check it out starting page 17. I was lynched based on setup speculation completely, before I even had a chance to resopond to any points against me. Guardian lost the game in endgame.

Three games that had almost nothing to do with my play that came up as a town loss (in 462, absolutely nothing). So dont think you know why I lose games as town. Actually read them. As far as I can tell, I'm only responsible for two of those losses, making me 2-2 in terms of actually playing the game.

[Elias_the_thief]

You know how easy it is to do something and then say "it was for pressure?". Simply put, I dont believe your vote was pressure. I believe you only changed it because you got called out on how bad the reasoning was.

I think this is valid. However, Gemelli did say at the time:

Here, let's see what kind of reaction this results in:

Unvote; Vote Elias

That suggests he was seeking a reaction.

Well, you have a point there. But it is equally easy to have the excuse in mind before taking said action and include it in your post. I just dont think that he meant to ONLY get a reaction, but would have kept his vote on all day had he not been called on bad reasoning.

[Elias_the_thief]

I'm well aware that youre pissed, but lets try to resolve this without becoming enemies for life, and concentrate on catching scum.

A defense:

1. Nothing I say in a game of mafia has any real bearing on my interaction with others on the forum outside of games. My arrogance and hostility are put-on; an act, that I can reenact on both sides of the game. When I leave this thread, I'm a good deal friendlier..
2. Call me a prick if you want, but I'm not the one being intolerant of others. Intolerance is always a sure bet to piss people off around here, as I've learned in the past. A lot of people will probably seem like pricks to you, at first.
3. I am not the only one who would have responded like I have. Someone of your experience trying to improve a veterans playstyle, especially without even reading their games, will be considered rude, and viewed as arrogant.

An explanation:

1. As Vollkan pointed out, its important to keep a meta consistent on both sides. I realized that I get angryand condescending when wrongly accused as town. If I can consistently do this as town, the possibility for use in playstyle is tremendous. And, my meta would be ruined if I

didnt

emulate it.
2. Anger and condescension cause people to react genuinely, and reactions are great for getting good reads. I build the entire foundation of my play on the ability to get decent reads and my ability to defend myself in an identical fashion on both sides of the game. This is important in mafia as you know.

An apology; a proposal:

I'll admit my last post may have gone overboard, but I hope you can admit that you may have gone overboard as well. It is at least equally, if not more so, condescending of you to assume you can improve my playstyle while obviously not actually looking into my games at all. Given that I was genuinely pissed off, as opposed to my usual stance of acting as such, my post came off pretty vehemently. For this I apologize. Now, I will propose to you a deal: If you agree to not make further commentary about improving my town record and playstyle, I will make a largescale effort to be less condescending, at least in this game.

Now, as for leaving the site, I will not agree with Vollkan. I won't discourage you, though i wont encourage you either. Though know this: on this site you will encounter people much meaner then myself, with much more annoying and degrading playstyles. If you wish to have any fun on the site, let go of what your idea of a good playstyle is, and accept that everyone is free to hav their own, regardless of whether you like or not. If you can accept that, stay. If not, don't.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Now I propose we go back to playing mafia.

[Elias_the_thief]

ebwop: in an explanation, should read: "If I can consistently do this as

scum

, the possibility for use in playstyle is tremendous"

[Elias_the_thief]

I may have missed that post earlier, but huh? When did Orig say he was NKing me tonight?

[Elias_the_thief]

Yeah, I'm fairly certain that you arent the SK, though if you were, claiming probably would be the right play. Regardless, I'm still happy with your lynch, it helps us either way (though i still hope youre scum not sk).

[Elias_the_thief]

yeah...please reveal any info, though Im pretty sure that gemelli is scum (until ABR is caught up at least)

[Elias_the_thief]

It appears that the Korlash-Elias pairing has fallen. So now its between Gemelli and Lucienne. Frankly, pretty sure its gemelli but ill wait for ABRs read, as I said.

[Elias_the_thief]

It's very rare to see GF's that are immune to tracking, only the guilty/innocent sort of investigation. Anyways, I think Gemelli is scum, so the plan seems good to me. It is sort of unsettling that Vollkan suggests it, and we must assume hes town in order to go through with it.

[Elias_the_thief]

of course, id feel like an ass for making him read into an inevitable lynch tomorrow. Maybe we should stop the reading now.

[Elias_the_thief]

Your connection to Korlash mainly. Also, the wierd attack on me that let you pile your vote on right after Korlash voted (I guess thats still the connection thing, but scummy on its own).

[Elias_the_thief]

Mainly that one vote, and I cant be bothered to look up what else really, as I'm pretty sure we've got the game in the bag with Vollkans strategy, though I'll look at it again more critically tomorrow if luciennes town.

Anyways, I'll hammer tomorrow, if we've all agreed that this plan is the best way to go, though I'd much rather it be Gemelli up there then ABR.

[Elias_the_thief]

just so you know, the first tomorrow is game days, the second is real life days.

[Elias_the_thief]

*shrug*
It seems pretty apparent that there are no objections to the hammer. So yeah,

vote: ABR

. I expect this to be a townie lynch followed by scumgemelli tomorrow though.

[Elias_the_thief]

maybe you shouldnt have tried to kill us all! Geez!

Anyways, wow gemelli, im sorry for doubting you, but with lucienne being gone for much of the game, there really wasnt much against her, so whatever weak case I had on you took precedence.

Anyways, good game all.

[Elias_the_thief]

definately would not have noticed that breadcrumb.

[Elias_the_thief]

/good modding.