Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[spurgistan]

Hey folks, miss me?. I'll beat Streetflo to it by saying that AlyG was telling the absolute truth, originality visited Carrotcake night one (we decided he's a vig, right?) and Lucienne played it cool night 2. While I have more or less kept up to date with what's going on (sigh), I'll give it a little skim-over this weekend.

[AlyG]

I m Back Im Back!!!!!! dont replace me please i lost my internet access and just got it back! dont replace me!!!!!

[Streeflo]

Sorry AlyG, but you didn't post in over three weeks. You have already been replaced.

Sincerest apologies, but the game had to go on.

[Korlash]

Oh... Man that sucks... T_T'

[Gemelli]

Thanks, Spurgistan; you've anticipated my next question and gone a long way towards alleviating my minimal doubts on your alignment. Looking forward to hearing your thoughts on the game when you've finished your skim.

Now you know why I wanted to hear from Lucienne. Her lack of activity hurts us here... Thus... we are more prone to go after you.

I don't follow you ... I'm more suspicious than Lucienne because I'm posting regularly, and she isn't? If you believe that her lack of activity is hurting the town, why the heck does that make you more inclined to go after me?

[vollkan]

Thanks, Spurgistan; you've anticipated my next question and gone a long way towards alleviating my minimal doubts on your alignment

Can you explain how that works? My doubt revolves around the prospect of Spurg being a mafia tracker (unlikely as that may be). I don't see why Spurg's post eliminates that possibility.

No, I've been assuming that Orig is either vig or SK, but not mafia, and that therefore he still has a vested interest in killing mafia at this point. But yes, I had been assuming 2 scum. If having just one scum is even a moderately plausible distinct possibility, then obviously my plan needs to be scrapped without further comment. (As an aside, we haven't really looked at the 6:1 or 5:1:1 scenarios in detail yet, have we?)

6:1 is exceedingly unlikely.

As for 5:1:1,
Maflynch = 5:0:1. We lynch Orig. Easy. However, the problem here is that we have no way of knowing whether it is currently 4:2:1 or 5:1:1. Thus, this is not a situation we can plan for

For mislynch,
Mislynch = 4:1:1. It is most likely mafia will try and get rid of Orig and that Orig will try and get rid of the mafia, leaving either 3:1:0 or 4:0:0, the former being more likely.

[Korlash]

I don't follow you ... I'm more suspicious than Lucienne because I'm posting regularly, and she isn't? If you believe that her lack of activity is hurting the town, why the heck does that make you more inclined to go after me?

because I have things to go off of you. I can take what you say and apply my thining towards whether I think it comes from a scum or from a town. I can see a partnership between you and people you talk about. I can see if and when you ever "jump" on people unnecessarily. I can see your opinions and deduce if they are pro-town or anti-town.

I cannot with Lucienne. Because we have a strong possibility of being at LYLO tomorrow I cannot afford to only be suspicius of a lurker, or to let that affect my thinking of others.

Personally, my thinking is attacking a lurker gets the town nowhere. They do not answer and our time is wasted. Thus, I am "More prone" to go after an active player in order to get the proverbial "reactions".

i hope that answers yoru question...

[Elias_the_thief]

I'm back, though at present I don't have much to add. Waiting for Spurgistan to be up to date seems like a good idea.

[Gemelli]

Can you explain how that works? My doubt revolves around the prospect of Spurg being a mafia tracker (unlikely as that may be). I don't see why Spurg's post eliminates that possibility.

It doesn't eliminate the possibility; it mitigates it somewhat. The way he worded his post implied that he'd also had some doubts as to whether AlyG had been telling the truth.

As for 5:1:1,
Maflynch = 5:0:1. We lynch Orig. Easy. However, the problem here is that we have no way of knowing whether it is currently 4:2:1 or 5:1:1. Thus, this is not a situation we can plan for

For mislynch,
Mislynch = 4:1:1. It is most likely mafia will try and get rid of Orig and that Orig will try and get rid of the mafia, leaving either 3:1:0 or 4:0:0, the former being more likely.

Aren't we in the same situation in a Maflynch vs. a mislynch? If we mislynch, no one except the mafia will know if we're at 4:1:1 or 3:2:1.

[originality]

Spurgistan, I know its sort of old and beaten news, but what would be your best guess as to you having been killed N1? Who could have done it and why? I know its not very helpful at this point but still I'd like to know.

And since we have new people here how about a new

votecount

Also obviously awaiting post-reading evaluation.

[Streeflo]

Votecount has not changed.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 287#853287

[spurgistan]

Apologies, exams are eating my soul. I'll be charged and ready on Tuesday.

[Elias_the_thief]

For a recent example of my playstyle if you want it, see mini 515 where I just won as scum. Also check my wiki for other games, if metaing is your thing. I dont know if that helps you guys or not.
*shrug*

[Gemelli]

Just as a reminder, we've got just four days until our deadline (

Mod: is there a specific deadline TIME as well?

). Which makes me a bit nervous, since we just went 36 hours without any posts.

If we're going to reach a consensus on a lynch for today, I'd much rather it be something that we all have a chance to discuss, rather than a rushed decision on the 8th. Especially since my availability on the 8th will be limited as usual on the weekends.

At this time, I am well and truly undecided between voting for Elias or Korlash. Every time I re-read this game, I go back and forth between those two. I'm still FAIRLY confident that one of them is mafia, but with the possibility of only one mafia remaining, my level of confidence has dropped. The only other player I'm considering as possible Mafia at this time is Lucienne.

Part of the problem I'm having now is that there are so many scenarios to consider for the # of players remaining in each category. Possibilities that have been thrown around include:

(A) 4 Town, 2 Mafia, 1 SK :: Means that the initial setup was 8:3:1
(B) 5 Town, 2 Mafia :: Means that the initial setup was 9:3
(C) 5 Town, 1 Mafia, 1 SK :: Means that the initial setup was 9:2:1
(D) 6 Town, 1 Mafia :: Means that the initial setup was 10:2

If we can eliminate one or two of those setups from serious consideration, it might be easier for us to decide on a course of action. (D) seems like an obvious candidate to be discarded, for example. Much of our planning to date has focussed on (A) as a worst case scenario ... the question is, how likely do we think that scenario actually is?

From an inexperienced player's POV, given that we have two confirmed power roles (tracker, cop) and one wildcard power role (SK or vig), I would place the likelihood of the scenarios in order: C (most likely)-B-A-D (least likely).

What do the rest of you think? And how do your setup assumptions influence your thoughts on how we should proceed over the next few days?

[vollkan]

If we're going to reach a consensus on a lynch for today, I'd much rather it be something that we all have a chance to discuss, rather than a rushed decision on the 8th. Especially since my availability on the 8th will be limited as usual on the weekends.

I've been waiting for Spurgistan to weigh in, but he seems to be taking his time - understandably.

Part of the problem I'm having now is that there are so many scenarios to consider for the # of players remaining in each category. Possibilities that have been thrown around include:

(A) 4 Town, 2 Mafia, 1 SK :: Means that the initial setup was 8:3:1
(B) 5 Town, 2 Mafia :: Means that the initial setup was 9:3
(C) 5 Town, 1 Mafia, 1 SK :: Means that the initial setup was 9:2:1
(D) 6 Town, 1 Mafia :: Means that the initial setup was 10:2

If we can eliminate one or two of those setups from serious consideration, it might be easier for us to decide on a course of action. (D) seems like an obvious candidate to be discarded, for example. Much of our planning to date has focussed on (A) as a worst case scenario ... the question is, how likely do we think that scenario actually is?

From an inexperienced player's POV, given that we have two confirmed power roles (tracker, cop) and one wildcard power role (SK or vig), I would place the likelihood of the scenarios in order: C (most likely)-B-A-D (least likely).

D is not even within my contemplation right now. That would mean we have a vig, a cop and a tracker - as well as any other power roles, which seems unlikely. Whilst that probably means no protective roles, we were still a relatively powerful town. A mere 2 mafia against that seems over-balanced in our favour.

My personal view is that Orig is

probably

a vig. Thus, I believe that B is the most likely. Out of A and C, I am actually inclined to think of C as being most likely, primarily because the only other SK game I have been in had 2 mafia (Mini 467) and because C set-ups tend to be the most common if you trawl through Little Italy's most recent finished SK games (the only 3 scum, 1 SK game I could find was Mini 441 run by StallingChamp). Moreover, the lack of protective roles makes me inclined to favour C somewhat, though this I am far from convinced.

So, to form a list:
B
C
A


[many line spaces]

D

What do the rest of you think? And how do your setup assumptions influence your thoughts on how we should proceed over the next few days?

For my reasoning, I will be assuming that we are in setup A. I realise that may seem a tad insensible given it was third on my list, but it should not make too much actual difference in terms of scumhunting.

My thoughts on the best target will be influenced by the following:
1) Who is most scummy on their own?
2) Who has the most apparent links to dybeck?
3) From whose lynch will we learn the most about other players?

These 3 issues apply whether we are in B or A. Whilst only 1) will apply in C, I think this makes little practical difference. Ultimately, 1) will be decisive but 2) and 3) may play factorial roles.

Now, my answers.
1) My answer is Korlash.

If I list my potential lynch candidates, it has not changed from the table:
Korlash
Elias
Gemelli
Lucienne

2) My answer is Elias, pretty much tied with Korlash. Followed by Gemelli and Lucienne, pretty much tied.

3) This question is an interesting one.

For starters, I do not think that Lucienne being scum would tell us much at all. She could conceivably be aligned to any of the rest of the 3 candidates. Likewise, if she is town, aside from looking at the remaining 3 candidates in response to the wagon, I don't think it would tell us too much at all.

As for the remaining 3, I think the most likely scumpairs are:
Korlash/Elias tied with Elias/Gemelli
Korlash/Lucienne
Korlash/Gemelli
Elias/Lucienne pretty much tied with Gemelli/Lucienne (I haven't looked too much into either of these)

Korlash being scum would affirm my thoughts on 3 of the top 4, as well as eliminating Elias/Gemelli. Korlash being town would set my sights squarely on Elias/Gemelli.

Elias being scum would make me more suspicious of Korlash and Gemelli, but with no real change in Lucienne, such an anomalous player. ELias being town would throw me onto Korlash, since I think Korlash/Lucienne or Korlash/Gemelli is more feasible than Gemelli/Lucienne (again, Lucienne is an anomaly so I would still be very wary of her).

Gemelli being scum would make me much more suspicious of Elias, with little change on Korlash or Lucienne. Gemelli being town would bolster Korlash/Elias.

~~~~~~~~
So there you have it. Korlash comes up trumps in all 3. Thus, he will be getting my vote today.

[Elias_the_thief]

I still dont see why you can value the Gemelli/Korlash team so low, especially after gems incredibly dumb vote on me right after I got one vote, especially when he continued to rate korlash number one and me number two.

[vollkan]

It isn't actually so low.

If I were to use percentages:

Korlash/Elias - 80%
Elias/Gemelli - 80%
Korlash/Lucienne - 75%
Korlash/Gemelli - 70%
Elias/Lucienne - 55%
Gemelli/Lucienne - 55%

Basically, any of the top 4 I would not be surprised with, and it depends on my weighting. I didn't see much for Korlash/Gemelli earlier on, but the latest stuff does seem to support it (query the extent to which Gem's vote was just reaction-seeking, but nonetheless).

[Elias_the_thief]

Well, I guess it does seem more obvious from my point of view. But I would really hate to be lynched tomorrow if Korlash comes up scum, as I'm really not linked to him.

[vollkan]

Well, I guess it does seem more obvious from my point of view. But I would really hate to be lynched tomorrow if Korlash comes up scum, as I'm really not linked to him.

Yup. Don't get me wrong. My reasoning for 1) will ALWAYS take precedence over 2 and 3. What I simply mean is that Korlash being scum would give me an indication of where to begin my analysis. Also, let it be known that I will be immensely pissed if I get NKed and somebody tries to run a Korlash = Scum therefore Elias = Scum thing.

I want to be clear here: ANY combination of the top 4 is feasible. One person being scum or town neither clears nor condemns ANYBODY.

[Elias_the_thief]

It also kind of annoys me that as it stands I would be the deadline lynch.

[vollkan]

It also kind of annoys me that as it stands I would be the deadline lynch.

Not really. I'll vote Korlash in about 24 hours. That makes you on par with Korlash. Then it basically comes down to Gemelli (or Spurg, since Lucienne is m.i.a) as the decider.

[Elias_the_thief]

even with your vote tying things, in the event of a tie the player who had the votes the longest is lynched. And seeing as Gemelli and korlash are almost certain buddies (and least from my perspective) then you can guess where his vote will be going. It comes down to spurg, and a lurker. Great.

[Streeflo]

(

Mod: is there a specific deadline TIME as well?

).

12:01 Sunday would be the deadline.

That means you have all of Saturday. Go go go!!

[Elias_the_thief]

prod/ replace lucienne?

[vollkan]

even with your vote tying things, in the event of a tie the player who had the votes the longest is lynched. And seeing as Gemelli and korlash are almost certain buddies (and least from my perspective) then you can guess where his vote will be going. It comes down to spurg, and a lurker. Great.

Elias, what are your thoughts on Lucienne? It's just you say that Gemelli/Korlash seems almost certain to you, that suggests you are almost certain of Lucienne's innocence.

Anyway, so far I don't think that there has been a case against you raised by Gemelli. Indeed, he had Korlash in the lead. Unless he can explain properly why he suspects you more, I will not accept a vote for you from Gemelli.