Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[vollkan]

questions about dybeck case...

Now, the case:
1) Dybeck's weird

If shaft.ed is not the serial killer I will eat my hat.

His certainty here in going after one of the least scummy players here really looked odd to me. Note a massive tell in itself, but I just don't like it.

Whoa. That is wierd. But I'm not sure its a scumtell. Scum wouldnt have knowledge on who's sk, and what advantage does scum have in trying to bring attention to one of the least suspicious players?

None that I can think of...that's why I said it struck me as odd but not a massive tell.

If dybeck is town, I'd put it down to extreme over-eagerness.

If scum, possibly an attempt to direct the other scumgroup to kill shaft.ed..but this is pure conjecture and weird in itself.

2) Dybeck's thing about needing to find the mafia and not wanting to lynch SK shaft.ed. Anti-town, but not a massive scumtell. Confusing if anything

Town should have preference on killing mafia, obviously, since 2 mafia 1 townie is an autoloss, while 1 sk 1 mafia 1 town isnt necessarily a loss. So I dunno. This seems like a nulltell to me.

Well, I did the numbers thing just before (and I did something similar back then IIRC) that show that it is not significantly advantageous. By "anti-town...confusing if anything" I was more focussing on it being rather misleading rather than it being numerically the worser option.

Though, admittedly, I don't think dybeck did the numerical analysis that I did, so this is most very likely a nulltell.

3) Dybeck's haste to vote Orig was the first thing that stuck out as majorly scummy to me. He accepted AlyG's claim prima facie and then latched on.

That's true. Hypothetically, if Dybeck were mafia, he would know that he did not make the kill on CC, therefore making Orig vig or SK, both something the mafia would want to eliminate as soon as possible.

Nothing for me to add.

4) Dybeck's

it's not like we didn't think he was scum yesterday

when dybeck had rejected the Orig D1 wagon

Certainly wierd. Scumtell? I'm not sure. Did he ever address this point?

Not that I can recall.

DYBECK! ADDRESS PLEASE

5) The continued argument where dybeck was ignoring the main tenets of why I don't think Orig is scum and just re-running the same things (the three args from my previous post)

I'm confused... 1) Was he arguing he was mafia or SK, and 2) what were those 3 arguments?

1) Dybeck was arguing that Orig was mafia, very firmly. I think there was one post where he said something like "scum, most likely mafia"
2) The

2

arguments (typo, thanks for finding it):
a) Killing CC = ObvScum
b) Vig = Safest Scum Claim

6) Singular focus on Orig until it becomes certain Orig is not going to NK.

That's not too bad. Town wants that just as much as scum at this point.

I know that. However, my problem is that he says he was so damn sure (100% or now 99.5%) that Orig was scum that I cannot work out why he was prepared to just switched over when there was no pressure of deadline or anything. Particularly given that he was adamant that Orig was mafia and Oman was SK until Orig's NK prospects were looking nullified.

7) Dybeck was, for a long time, only hunting Orig as a SK and ignoring all questions of the mafia

Very scummy. It supports my hypothesizing about your third point.

TYPO! He was hunting Orig as a mafia only so this point is not true.

8.) Wishy-washy attitudes to everyone except Orig (until the Oman thing surfaced)

Hrm. Dont know what to think of this one. Elaboration would be helpful.

He had no expressed opinions of anybody except Orig until Oman emerged as a candidate to him once Orig had been pacified.

(I renumbered your post for my convenience)

9) Dybeck, I thought you were arguing that Oman was the SK? Does a possible bus (only possible, it may not be at all) really have the potential to shift this? If it has shifted you, then I demand that you identity a SK.

I need to understand the context of this. Post #'s? Right now, it looks like you put an unfair burden on him at the time.

Sure.
[quote="Dybeck in #674]

Dybeck, two questions, if Orig is the SK then who would you peg as the mafia?
If Orig is mafia, who would you peg as the SK and other mafia?

Yes I too would like to hear something from dybeck other than originality must die. There are at least 3 scum in this game and we have yet to find any.

I'm assuming that since he is lining up to defend him with misrepresentation and lies in the mathematics, that shaft.ed is a possible other mafia. He's misrepresented me on several occasions, and posted mathematics that he knows to be wrong (#637) to make it look like I'm incorrect, or somehow not hunting scum. Vollkan might be the other, or he might just be following shaft.ed's lead to appear helpful.

If we mislynch, and originality is mafia, WE LOSE. It's worth noting that two people in this town would want that to happen. I'd urge the town not to get swept along on a tide. There are only two moves today that cannot result in us losing tonight - lynching originality or going no-lynch.

I'm not sure about the SK - right now I'd lean towards Oman, but it could be anyone.

The problem is, that only these people I believe to be scum are posting, which means that as a block, they seem to be discrediting everything I say.

But I don't want any of this to dilute the core message, which is that originality is lying and he does have to die.
[/quote]

To explain the importance of this. In #689, Dybeck then posted his NK list which was:

Sigh...

1. No kill
2. Shaft.ed
3. Vollkan
4. Oman

The only way that can make sense is if he has shaft.ed/me/Orig as the mafia.

As I've said, I think orig is probably mafia. Too many people are defending him for at least one or two of them not to be informed.

SK a little bit less easy. Oman's "lynch anyone but me" attitude throughout the course of this game pins him as a good candidate.

If I had strong opinions about anyone else, rest assured that I'd have told you all about it by now.

But I'd hate for you to forget the core message that is "originality is obvious scum and we need to lynch him before he kills again".

Then in #889:

That's not the list I'd give now. I think it'd look more like:

1. No kill
2. Oman
3. Vollkan
4. Lucienne

A lot depends on whether orig is SK or mafia, because if he's SK, your [vollkan] defending him and attacking me looks a lot less scummy.

Then, once the No Kill was declared:

I'm not. He is my number 4, and pretty much number 3 now that elias is confirmed to actually not be lurking, but actually disappeared. I do think Oman is scummy, only dybeck is more so.

Way to look like you're bussing your scumbuddy whilst still continuing your campaign for an alternate lynch.

I'm happy that both orig and Oman are mafia, and I'd be happy with either.

I might actually be happier with Oman, because in the event that we're wrong in any combination, we've pretty much managed to neuter originality for tonight because he now knows how likely his lynch is for tomorrow if he strays from the "no-kill" line.

Anybody need to say anything before I drop the hammer?

10.) More importantly, you seem damn keen on Oman's lynch. You haven't even asked for a claim and you were evidently prepared to hammer.

Bad town play or obvious scum play. It could be either. Thus I say unto you: wifom.

Yes. Very true.

11) You are pre-empting that this hammering could be wrong, despite the fact that you appear to be champing at the bit to hammer.

Wierd. Did he respond to this? Also, post # please.

#952 (quoted ^ above)

I don't think he did...

12) You are wrong that we have neutered Orig even if we are wrong about Oman (interesting that you saying this serves to encourage Oman's lynch). If Oman is town and Orig is mafia, he is still going to NK regardless, since his death is assured by the SK. If Orig is SK, he will pretty much have to NK to have a shot. In other words, your argument is complete rot. If Orig is scum, he will very near certainly night kill.

Maybe. Unless he wants to survive the next day in town. IF by some miracle he survives (the scum could play wifom with the doc and end up getting no kill, or killing someone else entirely) then his kill will assure his lynch the next day.

No, if I had claimed vig as sk, I would definately follow their directions.

This is a bit of a toss-up. He is guaranteed dead by end N3 if any mafia survive, but also guaranteed dead if he does NK.

He can only hope to win if he NKs...but that will cause him to be lynched.

13) Using Gemelli's wonderful little tool, dybeck has not FoSed Oman this day. He FoSed Oman on D1 for "misrepresentation". Willing to hammer under no pressure of deadline without a FoS?

I dunno. I dont use fosses too often myself. If he has expressed suspicion today, theres not reason that he HAS to use an fos. So I guess its kind of a tell, but I dont think its too strong.

No. It isn't strong. It just shows that there was not much of a foundation for the suspicion.

14) His certainty on Orig now with the 100% thing

Hmm. Normally I dont see certainty as a scum tell (look at just completed 486 where I was certain hermit was scum, and we were both town). However, in relation to point 3 and 7 is pretty suspect.

Again, probably a case of my own standards. But with 3, yes (7 was typo).

Anyways, this is not supposed to be a defense. I'm responding to it because:
1) I didnt really understand the case, and I still need some confirmation
2) I haven't really seen anyone challenge the case besides Dybeck, who is a relative noob. I'd like to see how it stands up to closer scrutiny
3) I'd like to see if it's a good enough case that I'd be willing to put my vote behind. At this point, I dont think I would.

And you know what...

Unvote

There are a number of minor tells in there, but collectively and when analysed by someone other than myself (multiple scrutiny = very important) it is not decisive.

I hadn't gotten the whole thing out and analysed before this, so it was a good exercise.

[originality]

Now, I could have understood if you said this at the time as a smokescreen sort of thing, but you NEVER retracted these or explained them. [You just concocted the thing about you having a "gut feeling".

I don't get what your trying to say there.

Yes, it was a smokescreen

thing, that's what I've been saying.

I think you just slipped
Let me explain:

Uh... This is weird, because carrotcake was pretty quiet imo. I guess ima go with shaft.ed here, in that carrotcake must have scared someone enough into killing him...

So AlyG would be a suspect, but i dont know if hes the only one carrotcake was after, so i will that, post in a min.

If it was a smokescreen, you never pointed this out to us. When the issue of why you killed Orig was raised, you simply said that you killed CC on a "gut feeling" without referring to these earlier statements and explaining what this was all about.

If you had said those things as a brilliant maneuver to distance yourself from CC's death, you would certainly have thought to have explained them when you were making up why you chose to kill CC. That's what I meant by "you NEVER retracted".

The AlyG thing is important. If this was a smokescreen tactic, the LAST thing you should have done is attempt to use it to embroil another player in suspicion. That is completely anti-town because you are effectively fabricating evidence.

Now, it is true that you then went off on a Dr. B tangent and dropped blaming AlyG, but then later in #389 you said again:

Alright. I dunno about AlyG, it seems the major thing against him is the carrotcake bit, and other then that you guys are pretty much just making stuff up.

When you finally got outed you said:

I claimed carrotcake's death must have scared a scum to get suspicion off me. It was damn obvious carrotcake didn't scare anyone.

I didn't find Oman suspicious. He wasn't. He seems pretty town to me. As I said, it was just a vibe I got from carrotcake. And he wasn't helping town much at all. He seemed pretty confused about the present happenings most of the time. And I must admit, I was offset by why he kept his vote on me for so long in the beginning without one explanation. He voted during the joke stage, and kept it there while my wagon was forming. Only changed a while later when it had mostly died off.

Here you admit that that you said Carrot was scum to get suspicion off yourself (*blink* Why would we suspect YOU for that?)and you clearly just bypass what you were trying to do wrt AlyG.

Wow, isn't it common practice here to say something so you look like you don't know anything about what happened in the night? Because that's what I did. If you will notice, I was pulling a Lucienne on us- that is, I was repeating exactly what the average town consensus was without adding anything new on my own, to look like I was contributing.

At the beginning I had all the tools I needed to pursue an AlyG lynch,(carrotcake's death) but I didn't, I never mentioned it, I just agreed that he was the only one that carrotcake had stuff against. If I was trying to frame him or something, I would have persued a lynch of him, like a lot of people were doing. And that third quote of me there, vollkan, is actually arguing PRO AlyG.

And at that last quote, I was saying that I had just agreed with everyone in saying that carrotcake must have scared someone or something, what was I supposed to do? Say what actually happened, that carrotcake did in fact not scare anyone, but actually seemed scummy, so I killed him? No. I think you are missreading that one.

[Streeflo]

Day 2, Votecount #25!

Oman (3) - Gemelli, shaft.ed, AlyG
dybeck (2) - originality, Oman
originality (2) - dybeck, Elias_the_Thief

Not voting: Lucienne, vollkan

With

9

alive it takes

5

to lynch!

Day 2 Deadline: November 1

At deadline, a majority of a majority of votes will be needed to lynch. It will take 3 votes in this current situation. If 3 votes are not reached, there will be no lynch. In case of a tie, whoever got there first will be lynched.

[AlyG]

So Elias are you still going to stick with your orig vote or vote for someone else? And Vollkan who are you going to vote for? or are you undecided?

[Elias_the_thief]

Day 2 Deadline: September 1

What...?

and I'm undecided AlyG.

[AlyG]

Day 2 Deadline: September 1

What...?

and I'm undecided AlyG.

September 1? Don't you mean November 1?

[Streeflo]

Day 2 Deadline: September 1

What...?

and I'm undecided AlyG.

September 1? Don't you mean November 1?

The mod makes no mistakes...

FIXED

[originality]

What, never seen a 322 days long deadline before?

[vollkan]

Wow, isn't it common practice here to say something so you look like you don't know anything about what happened in the night? Because that's what I did. If you will notice, I was pulling a Lucienne on us- that is, I was repeating exactly what the average town consensus was without adding anything new on my own, to look like I was contributing.

At the beginning I had all the tools I needed to pursue an AlyG lynch,(carrotcake's death) but I didn't, I never mentioned it, I just agreed that he was the only one that carrotcake had stuff against. If I was trying to frame him or something, I would have persued a lynch of him, like a lot of people were doing. And that third quote of me there, vollkan, is actually arguing PRO AlyG.

And at that last quote, I was saying that I had just agreed with everyone in saying that carrotcake must have scared someone or something, what was I supposed to do? Say what actually happened, that carrotcake did in fact not scare anyone, but actually seemed scummy, so I killed him? No. I think you are missreading that one.

Okay; you responded the way that I expected you to. As I have been saying, this is me trying to run through an interrigation with you to sort out if there are any merits to dybeck's stance.

Now, as for saying "I don't know what happened in the night", it is not common. Most people don't say anything. They may express annoyance if a power role was killed...but that is usually it.

So Elias are you still going to stick with your orig vote or vote for someone else? And Vollkan who are you going to vote for? or are you undecided?

At this stage, not Orig. He could be newb scum or new vig and I cannot think of any way to differentiate. His responses to my interrogation were what I would have expected. The fact is, that he really seems to think it makes sense for him to distance himself. It could be pure BS coming from him, but his explanation is complete at the moment.

As for my vote, I don't think the case on dybeck is substantial enough now that we have re-assessed everything.

That leaves Oman by a process of elimination from my top candidates.

I've got something else to say, which I find interesting. This relies on my own perspective, but I think it is worthwhile drawing it to your attentions:

Our players atm,
Elias_the_thief
Oman
AlyG
Gemelli
Lucienne
volkann
originality
shaft.ed
dybeck

The current VC is:

Oman (3) - Gemelli, shaft.ed, AlyG
dybeck (2) - originality, Oman
originality (2) - dybeck, Elias_the_Thief

Not voting: Lucienne, vollkan

If we assume Orig is vig, AlyG is tracker and that dybeck is not mafia with Oman that makes it likely to me (absent bussing which is always a serious possibility):

That the mafia are Lucienne, Elias and Oman, with myself slotted into this list for the rest of you.

In any event, if Oman is mafia I do not think that shaft.ed and gemelli are. Which confines the mafia to those same three (four for the rest of you).

The Lucienne/Elias/Oman model is something I want to look at briefly:
(using the parser again)
Elias voted Oman on D1. Maybe sincere, maybe bussing.

However, this is made very interesting in light of Oman in #85:

1) Finally, I don't think Elias is scum here. Starting the wagon on me when originality had a wagon going strikes me an quite pro-town. Scum probably would've tryed to keep the wagon going (as per my phailed trap)

2 Unvote (if I was) Vote: Dr. Blackstrike HoS: Lucienne

Two things to note here:
1) Oman uses Elias's vote to suggest Elias is pro-town
2) Oman pulls a Vote/HoS combo. A very common scumtell.

Now, Lucienne voted Oman in #68 with a case that was criticised at the time. Oman called it "reaching". Lucienne's vote was third on Oman's wagon. Interestingly, in that very same post #68, Lucienne FoSed Dr. BS who was 2nd on the wagon. Other than that, we have Lucienne FoSing both Oman and dybeck in #876. Lucienne has not FoSed or voted Elias, nor has Elias done anything to Lucienne.

[Gemelli]

Limited posting time for me again (FWIW this happens to me most weekends). Here's where I currently stand:

(1) I feel considerably less favorable to originality after hearing his post 344 recapped. A smokescreen might have made sense AFTER someone pointed a finger at you on D2 as a possible suspect. Making that post preemtively does, as vollkan says, look more to me like fabricating evidence.

(2) If originality is mafia, we shouldn't need to worry about him today, since he is an obvious NK target for another scum group and removing him today still allows the mafia their kill. If he's an SK, leaving him alive today still makes him an NK target for the mafia, but at a potential cost to the town (he would made a NK of his own tonight). The mafia might of course choose to leave him alive N2, reasoning that the town would autolynch him on D3 if he isn't killed, but they would be making a calculated gamble here that he is not actually a vig. So basically, I think the question here is whether it's worth risking a townie life in return for using our lynch vote on another possible target.

(3) I still have my eye on Dybeck. Rereading his combined posts from this thread does not generate a lot of warm fuzzies, recent analysis from Elias and Vollkan notwithstanding. I encourage you all to review his post history, particularly posts from Day 1. A quick meta scan of a few of his games suggests that he is playing somewhat more aggressively here than in games where he was townie.

(4) I'm glad to have Elias back. And still very interested to hear where he stands on these two major bandwagons.

(5) I have not seen anything substantial posted in Oman's defense yet, and am still most comfortable with his lynch tonight, barring extra evidence being introduced on dybeck or discussion around the pros/cons of lynching originality tonight.

Vollkan, I see that you've posted since I started this, but will have to read your post tomorrow. Bed now

[Elias_the_thief]

That the mafia are Lucienne, Elias and Oman, with myself slotted into this list for the rest of you.

Well, first I'll wifom the hell out of you: I love playing as scum. I wouldnt have asked for replacement even if I were swamped with games, were I scum. Now that I'm done shamelessly wifoming, I'd like to point out that you are just as likely with Lucienne and Oman as I am, based on this logic (and taken from my standpoint).

In any event, if Oman is mafia I do not think that shaft.ed and gemelli are. Which confines the mafia to those same three (four for the rest of you).

Why do you feel this way?

The Lucienne/Elias/Oman model is something I want to look at briefly:
(using the parser again)
Elias voted Oman on D1. Maybe sincere, maybe bussing.

I can see where you're coming from with this. Reading my post, it does seem kind of contrived when I express suspicions of Oman's trap. However, I think its pretty unfair to just say "Maybe he was bussing!" Everytime that two people in a suggested scum group vote for one or the other. It's just as likely that I was bussing with orig isnt it? I mean, to just arbitrarily choose one vote and call that a "bus vote" is fairly ridiculous.

However, this is made very interesting in light of Oman in #85:

1) Finally, I don't think Elias is scum here. Starting the wagon on me when originality had a wagon going strikes me an quite pro-town. Scum probably would've tryed to keep the wagon going (as per my phailed trap)

2 Unvote (if I was) Vote: Dr. Blackstrike HoS: Lucienne

Two things to note here:
1) Oman uses Elias's vote to suggest Elias is pro-town
2) Oman pulls a Vote/HoS combo. A very common scumtell.

Would

you

think my vote was at all suspect? I certainly wouldnt. In a situation where Oman created (or claimed to have created) a trap, he has to post his results. My action wasn't scummy. Therefore it would be ridiculous for him to call it scummy. This could easily be sincere town, or scum following up on their original ploy, but it doesnt say much about a connection.
As for #2, I've never heard that before. How is that a scumtell again? I've always thought that use of HoS, FoS, is all personal preference.

Now, Lucienne voted Oman in #68 with a case that was criticised at the time. Oman called it "reaching". Lucienne's vote was third on Oman's wagon. Interestingly, in that very same post #68, Lucienne FoSed Dr. BS who was 2nd on the wagon. Other than that, we have Lucienne FoSing both Oman and dybeck in #876. Lucienne has not FoSed or voted Elias, nor has Elias done anything to Lucienne.

I'm not sure about Oman and Lucienne, but this point is kind of moot to me. Me an Lucienne really haven't been active at the same time yet.

Gemelli: as for the Dybeck wagon/case, its alright, but its not too convincing. I would probably be willing to vote Dybeck at deadline, though I'd rather lynch orig who i think is certain scum. Also, I asked for Shafted to outline the Oman case, he never did. If you would be willing to, I'd be happy to listen and tell you what I think.

[Gemelli]

Bah, can't sleep after all.

Gemelli: as for the Dybeck wagon/case, its alright, but its not too convincing. I would probably be willing to vote Dybeck at deadline, though I'd rather lynch orig who i think is certain scum. Also, I asked for Shafted to outline the Oman case, he never did. If you would be willing to, I'd be happy to listen and tell you what I think.

I think shaft.ed summarized the Oman case pretty well in post 1005.

Vollkan, I like where you're going with the analysis there. Unfortunately, I think that bussing is more than a little likely, so I'm not sure how much credence to place on it at this time. Must re-read tomorrow with the benefits of sleep.

Also, for those of you who care, I made the thread parser publicly available via a post in the Discussion forum. This is the last I'll speak of the script in this thread, but feel free to post in Discussion if you'd like to see things tweaked or changed.

[Elias_the_thief]

I think shaft.ed summarized the Oman case pretty well in post 1005.

Didnt notice that. I'll post on the subject tomorrow.

[vollkan]

Well, first I'll wifom the hell out of you: I love playing as scum. I wouldnt have asked for replacement even if I were swamped with games, were I scum. Now that I'm done shamelessly wifoming, I'd like to point out that you are just as likely with Lucienne and Oman as I am, based on this logic (and taken from my standpoint).

The wifom...it burns

Anyway, yeah, that's why included myself in that list. The point of that was to show what the situation is looking like to me if I think Orig is town and Oman is mafia.

In any event, if Oman is mafia I do not think that shaft.ed and gemelli are. Which confines the mafia to those same three (four for the rest of you).

Why do you feel this way?

It could be distancing from them, I know, but it seems unlikely given how easily they could have gone after dybeck. They've been pretty consistent in their desire to lynch Oman despite how easy a dybeck lynch would have been for them, so I think bussing is rather unlikely.

I can see where you're coming from with this. Reading my post, it does seem kind of contrived when I express suspicions of Oman's trap. However, I think its pretty unfair to just say "Maybe he was bussing!" Everytime that two people in a suggested scum group vote for one or the other. It's just as likely that I was bussing with orig isnt it? I mean, to just arbitrarily choose one vote and call that a "bus vote" is fairly ridiculous.

In light of the rest of the things, I thought it was relevant. A contrived vote is a possible sign of bussing (a weak one albeit) so I thought I should have included it with the other factors.

Would you think my vote was at all suspect? I certainly wouldnt. In a situation where Oman created (or claimed to have created) a trap, he has to post his results. My action wasn't scummy. Therefore it would be ridiculous for him to call it scummy. This could easily be sincere town, or scum following up on their original ploy, but it doesnt say much about a connection.
As for #2, I've never heard that before. How is that a scumtell again? I've always thought that use of HoS, FoS, is all personal preference.

For 1, same as the above. This is all just my theorising if I assume that Orig is town and that Gem and Shaft are not scum with Oman.
2. I'm quite surprised you haven't encountered it yet. Anyway, the rationale is that the scum votes a townie and FoSes/HoSes their buddy so as to advance a townie lynch and distance from their buddy simultaneously.

I'm not sure about Oman and Lucienne, but this point is kind of moot to me. Me an Lucienne really haven't been active at the same time yet.

Well, that shouldn't really be a problem. They've implemented this wonderful new feature on mafiascum called "forums" that allow you to go back and read what has been said previously.

Vollkan, I like where you're going with the analysis there. Unfortunately, I think that bussing is more than a little likely, so I'm not sure how much credence to place on it at this time. Must re-read tomorrow with the benefits of sleep.

Well; yours and shaft.ed's behaviour to Oman does not look like bussing. It could be, but it seems genuine.

[Oman]

Guys, It become obvious to you no doubt that I've got my HSC coming up and I can no longer confront the walls of text in this game. If you're still going on in 2-3 weeks I'd be happy to replace back in to any role if neccesary. I'm sorry but I don't feel I'm doing this game justice.

Just so you don't all feel betrayed by my playing of other games, I'm staying in my newbies and a mini that requires much less time. They are in a different league.

I appologise again for my chronic lurking

Mod

for reasons stated above I would like to formally ask for a replacement. Sorry man!

[vollkan]

Good luck with your HSC. I don't blame you for replacing, having gone through year 12 last year. It's a shame you have to leave the game, but it's perfectly understandable.

The main problem I see with this in terms of the game is that this kind of stalls things. It means that we won't be able to get feedback from arguments against Oman or anything until we find a replacement, which will be hard for a 42 page analysis-heavy game.

Additionally, this makes it very unlikely that we will get a response if we move to the point of having Oman roleclaim in anticipation of a lynch.

[Gemelli]

Vollkan, I like where you're going with the analysis there. Unfortunately, I think that bussing is more than a little likely, so I'm not sure how much credence to place on it at this time. Must re-read tomorrow with the benefits of sleep.

Well; yours and shaft.ed's behaviour to Oman does not look like bussing. It could be, but it seems genuine.

Thank you. I was actually referring to the votes on originality and dybeck as possible bus candidates.

Now then: as I said, I think your analysis is a good start and it's EXACTLY the kind of thinking we should each be doing for ourselves as D2 winds down. What I really like about this is that you've highlighted the two basic assumptions -- in this case, orig = vig, and oman = mafia -- and spelled out the most likely ramifications.

That being said, I think it would be worthwhile for each of us to craft our own scenarios with our own set of assumptions. Not only will this help us make a good decision today, but it will prepare us for the new information we will have gained by the morning of D3.

One of the problems I'm having with my own analysis is that if originality IS mafia, we have a SK who is a complete wild card. The issue with this is that the SK's goals would be completely aligned with the town's at this point; they want to hunt mafia just as we do. I guess there's not much point in worrying about this until orig's alignment is confirmed, though.

Oman, good luck with your HSC. I'll hold out hope that you're able to replace back into the game soon.

[shaft.ed]

Wow you guys get a lot of work done over the weekends, Mondays make my head spin.

I don't have time to address everything I want to today, but hopefully I'll get caught up over the next couple days.

First thing I'd like to comment on is the case against Originality specifically the early posts.
The argrument that he is the one that brought up the topic of "who killed CarrotCake" is false. AlyG first brought this up in his first post of the day.

I've got to re-read the thread now to try and get an understanding of who may have wanted the NK Carrotcake or Spurgistan.

Then I come in and accuse AlyG since the only person CC attacked was AlyG, this was fishy to me

Well AlyG, Carrotcake was most adamant in going after you. I'm surprised you wouldn't remember that.

FoS AlyG

Then Orig comes in and pseudo-agrees with me, but then makes a case against AlyG being the likely killer.

I guess ima go with shaft.ed here, in that carrotcake must have scared someone enough into killing him... So AlyG would be a suspect, but i dont know if hes the only one carrotcake was after, so i will that, post in a min.

Alright, I didnt find anyone besides AlyG who carrotcake seemed to threaten (besides me at the beginning, but that was the beginning ((and he defended me later btw))). However, alyg would have to be stupid indeed to kill the only person against him, way too obvious. Im not ruling out that he did, but maybe something else?

To me this would be a more likely play from a vig since he knows AlyG didn't target CarrotCake, he doesn't want him to be called out for something he didn't do, so he's casting doubt on this argument.

When you combine this with originality not biting on vollkan's intro post and the following attacks on AlyG from myself and Oman, I find this play by originality to at least demonstrate protection. I'm a little surprised that he'd be protecting AlyG after the back and forth they had on D1, but I'll guess that's because he didn't want to see someone falsely accused. To sum this point up, I believe orig and AlyG to be aligned. Since AlyG is very likely a tracker I would propose they are most likely both town. However, there is the possibility they set up this incredibly intricate gambit, but why bother? If they were scum, they'd be in a great position this day with 3 townies going out D1/N1.

OK, the case against dybeck. I have to say reading that whole exchange nearly made my head explode. I was becoming more and more convinced dybeck was scum, and then at the end I saw vollkan unvote. I have to admit I'm getting rather confused in this game. One thing that really stood out to me was specifiacally dybeck's opinion of me as the game has progressed.

Back when I was arguing an orig lynch would be a poor move, I was obv scum and #1 candidate on his NK list. However, once I stated that dybeck may just be a confused townie I'm all of the sudden I am described thusly:

Shaft.ed has looked pro-town all day since then and I think we need to get over this.

*since then refers to the SK eat my hat incident

Finally, Oman god luck with your exams. I've got to say your most recent post has refuted a hefty portion of my argument against you. I must then retract my vote.

unvote: Oman

I'm leaning towards dybeck, but have a lot more posting to do before any votes are made.

[shaft.ed]

Also forgot to add, I personally found Elias' vote for Oman in the early goings a pro-town move. Oman looked pretty scummy after his little stunt and Elias could have attempted a quicklynch on orig. While I realize the quicklynch on orig would have been stupid, pressuring Oman, who looked like scum from his bandwagon vote, was protown. Getting into the bussing and all is just taking this overboard. I don't think you can get a read as to their being linked one way or another if you keep layering your conclusions like that.

So I'd call the play minorly pro-town (one of the main reasons I thought Elias pro-town coming into today).

[Gemelli]

Finally, Oman god luck with your exams. I've got to say your most recent post has refuted a hefty portion of my argument against you.

I agreed with most of your post, but this last bit caught me off guard. Which post are you talking about? I still haven't seen him refute any of the standing arguments at all.

Not trying to be obtuse here, but Oman's is a case where I haven't seen any real arguments in his defense aside from "I always bandwagon." Face it, we have at least 3 scum among our group of 9 remaining players, and a deadline has been put in play. Are there three players in the game who are acting scummier than he is?

The timing on needing a replacement totally stinks, though

[shaft.ed]

Finally, Oman god luck with your exams. I've got to say your most recent post has refuted a hefty portion of my argument against you.

I agreed with most of your post, but this last bit caught me off guard. Which post are you talking about? I still haven't seen him refute any of the standing arguments at all.

Not trying to be obtuse here, but Oman's is a case where I haven't seen any real arguments in his defense aside from "I always bandwagon." Face it, we have at least 3 scum among our group of 9 remaining players, and a deadline has been put in play. Are there three players in the game who are acting scummier than he is?

The timing on needing a replacement totally stinks, though

Well, most of my argument was based on the fact that I thought he was not avoiding this game, but simply lurking in order to get away from the heat. He started posting less around the end of last month, and that's when he made the comment about "the town was doing so well hunting scum." That's really what set me off about Oman. I felt his constant avoidance of this issue was him trying to appear sloppy and just wait out the day since dybeck was such a good candidate. But since he's actually asking to be replaced, I can understand him making a statement like that.
While I take issue with his bandwagoning, if you do any meta on him you'll know this is a constant tactic of his regardless of side. In and of itself I don't think it's enough to make a case against him. Especially when I feel I've been giving others a lot of benefit of the doubt due to some gut feelings of mine.

[shaft.ed]

dybeck, I hadn't noticed that you are pushing the idea that orig must be mafia and is not likely the SK. If he is mafia, the SK/unclaimed vig will certainly kill him tonight. Why should the town waste their lynch in this situation?

[dybeck]

He's the only person that I'm certain is scum. I'd rather go with someone I'm sure about than anyone I'm less than sure about. Then I say we let the other side take a potshot and maybe hit another scum. And frankly, if you asked me to name a serial killer here in this game I'd be completely stabbing in the dark.

And apart from that, there's still the point I've made about the possibility of losing if we don't hit mafia today. And if by any chance the SK doesn't go for orig, perhaps because he looks like an easy lynch tomorrow, the mafia could end up being such a huge voting block tomorrow that they'll be hard to argue against - the entire town will have to agree on the same scum member to get a good lynch.

Besides, my only reasoning for working on the assumption that he's mafia is that he's got such support from some people. It's been hard, at points, to accept that these people could not be his scummates. He could as easily be the SK as several other people in this game.

Whichever way this day goes, I'm pretty pleased with it. I think that whoever we lynch, and whoever gets nightkilled, myself included, everyone here has shown their colours so clearly that we'll be able to pick off the rest of the mafia pretty easily. The SK might be a lot tougher, but if we focus on the mafia, we have a couple of days to pick up some more clues.

[vollkan]

When you combine this with originality not biting on vollkan's intro post and the following attacks on AlyG from myself and Oman, I find this play by originality to at least demonstrate protection. I'm a little surprised that he'd be protecting AlyG after the back and forth they had on D1, but I'll guess that's because he didn't want to see someone falsely accused. To sum this point up, I believe orig and AlyG to be aligned. Since AlyG is very likely a tracker I would propose they are most likely both town. However, there is the possibility they set up this incredibly intricate gambit, but why bother? If they were scum, they'd be in a great position this day with 3 townies going out D1/N1.

Very true. That was basically the response that my probing got from Orig too; that he had all the tools but didn't use them. As I said, I ran the AlyG argument purely to see how Orig would respond and to test the merits of dybeck's case on Orig. Sort of a Devil's Advocacy thing from me.

OK, the case against dybeck. I have to say reading that whole exchange nearly made my head explode. I was becoming more and more convinced dybeck was scum, and then at the end I saw vollkan unvote. I have to admit I'm getting rather confused in this game.

But in the unvote post of mine, after looking at it all, most of it was not very compelling stuff. Dybeck is very scummy, but I don't know if it is lynch-worthy or not.

He's the only person that I'm certain is scum. I'd rather go with someone I'm sure about than anyone I'm less than sure about. Then I say we let the other side take a potshot and maybe hit another scum. And frankly, if you asked me to name a serial killer here in this game I'd be completely stabbing in the dark.

I do not approve of this at all.

We should never rely on getting lucky over a SK shooting a mafia. EVER. As shaft.ed said, mafOrig is dead tonight anyway because there is no way a SK will let him live.

And apart from that, there's still the point I've made about the possibility of losing if we don't hit mafia today. And if by any chance the SK doesn't go for orig, perhaps because he looks like an easy lynch tomorrow, the mafia could end up being such a huge voting block tomorrow that they'll be hard to argue against - the entire town will have to agree on the same scum member to get a good lynch.

This is true, however it is highly unlikely the SK would take that option. The mafia being large is a severe threat to the SK and, as such, the SK maximises his chances by getting rid of Orig. If he failed to off Orig that night, he has basically lost unless another mafia is lynched today.

Besides, my only reasoning for working on the assumption that he's mafia is that he's got such support from some people. It's been hard, at points, to accept that these people could not be his scummates. He could as easily be the SK as several other people in this game.

If that is the foundation of your reasoning, I suggest you rethink. He is a claimed vig dybeck. I even tried firmly pushing case and it doesn't hold water. As such, if you are assuming he is mafia JUST because people do not want to lynch him, that is very poor reasoning.

[Streeflo]

Ah no, another replacement! I'll get right on it.