Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[Gemelli]

FoS: Gemelli

for celebrating after a night where the vig died.

I'm sorry that we lost Originality, but we were in a situation where he really wasn't able to vig without putting us in jeopardy of LYLO. There was also some uncertainty over whether he was a vig or an SK, and having him confirmed has simplified our assumptions about how many scum/town/other we have remaining.

Of the 6 players remaining after we lynched Korlash, there was a consensus that Vollkan is almost definitely town, Spurgistan is most likely town, Originality was either Vig or SK, and there is most likely one Mafia remaining among these three: Gemelli, Elias, and Lucienne (now you). It was obvious that the remaining Mafia wasn't going to touch the other two players in the group of three, leaving a target of Vollkan, Spurgistan, and Originality. Having Originality NK'd means that the spectre of "what if he's a SK" is no longer going to be held over our heads.

Spurgistan, I had assumed that if you tracked one member of the "group of three," that would eliminate that person as a suspect. I'm not sure what the benefit of keeping mum on your result is, but I'm sure you'll let us know eventually. Right?

[Elias_the_thief]

yeah...please reveal any info, though Im pretty sure that gemelli is scum (until ABR is caught up at least)

[spurgistan]

OK, yeah, guess that under the circumstances, I should make this an exception to revealing innocents. Elias, you are off the hook.

[Elias_the_thief]

It appears that the Korlash-Elias pairing has fallen. So now its between Gemelli and Lucienne. Frankly, pretty sure its gemelli but ill wait for ABRs read, as I said.

[vollkan]

First up, many thanks to ABR for replacing into this enormous game.

Now, down to business:-
* Korlash being the RB is an important fact. It is most unlikely that the mafia would have both a RB and a tracker. Thus, my doubt on Spurg has diminished significantly.
* Elias is now off the hook. My only doubt comes from the low possibility of an investigation-immune GF, but I think that to be unlikely. (so it seems most likely that we had a repeat of Mini 486)
* Since Korlash was a RB, it is quite likely that he blocked AlyG on N2. Thus, Lucienne may indeed have committed the kill N2.

Our situation is now 4:1. Those numbers are very encouraging. We now have two potential lynchees: Gemelli and Lucienne. Let me just run through the numbers:

D4 is now 4:1

Mislynch = 3:1
-MafNK = 2:1
--Mislynch = 1:1 LOSS
--Maflynch = 2:0 WIN
MafLynch = 4:0 WIN

Now, with those numbers, we can simply lynch Gemelli and Lucienne (in any order) and we will win regardless of whether or not we are wrong the first time. Such a course of action assumes Elias, Spurg and myself are pro-town. I want to know what people think of this idea. I have very little doubt regarding Spurg, and slightly more on Elias (though still I think he is most likely pro-town now). Thus, I think this would be a good idea.

Moreover, whether or not we decide to go ahead with the above, I think that Gem and Spurg should claim. I am happy for a mass claim also (given that the only other person who has not claimed now is myself).

[Gemelli]

Vollkan, that approach makes sense to me. It strikes me that the only real risks to the approach are that:

1. Elias is in fact an investigation-immune GF, or
2. Either you or spurgistan is actually mafia

I am willing to take the group's collective word on whether (1) is likely or not. I do not believe that (2) is likely at all at this point. As such, as long as we're all generally confident that (1) is not the case, I think Vollkan's approach offers us an excellent chance of securing a town victory.

My preference would obviously be that we lynch ABR before me, but I'm not overly concerned about the order as long as we're all generally comfortable with the assumptions above. And I am OK with claiming, either individually or en masse.

[Elias_the_thief]

It's very rare to see GF's that are immune to tracking, only the guilty/innocent sort of investigation. Anyways, I think Gemelli is scum, so the plan seems good to me. It is sort of unsettling that Vollkan suggests it, and we must assume hes town in order to go through with it.

[Gemelli]

In the event that the consensus is to go along with Vollkan's plan, and that I am lynched before ABR, I look forward to proving you wrong, Elias

[Gemelli]

EBWOP: Sounds like that's three in favor of Vollkan's plan. Spurgistan, ABR: are you OK with it?

[vollkan]

1. Elias is in fact an investigation-immune GF, or
2. Either you or spurgistan is actually mafia

I think it extremely unlikely that Spurg is mafia, and I know that I am not. I have never seen 1) before, in the sense of tracker immunity. Plus, given that we had an actual cop, it would make sense that, if there was a GF, the GF would be immune to the cop.

It is sort of unsettling that Vollkan suggests it, and we must assume hes town in order to go through with it.

I can understand it being unsettling. From my perspective, it seems like the obvious course of action, but I know that to the rest of you it will seem more risky.

[spurgistan]

Sure. I'm the only role that I know, I'm more than a bit confused, and everybody knows what I am, so I'm game to hearing what everybody else's is (and the one scum, natch). However, the fact that Volkann is leading this is duly noted.

[Gemelli]

Let's face it, there is an element of risk regardless of what plan of action we take. We have to make assumptions in order to move forward.

I am comfortable assuming that:

* We are currently in 4:1
* If Vollkan is Mafia, he spent nearly all of D2 and D3 pursuing lynches of his scummates
* If Spurgistan is Mafia, he is a Mafia tracker and 2/3 of Mafia were holding power roles
* If Elias is Mafia, he is an investigation-immune GF or there is another Mafia RB

Once again, it all comes down to Occam's Razor for me. From my perspective, ABR is the one player remaining who does NOT have a solid counter-argument to being Mafia.

I know that all of you will have to ask yourselves whether there is a reason to doubt that I am Mafia as well, and once again I'll do my best to answer your questions. But I'm not worried about being lynched if you all agree that Vollkan's plan is the way to go; it seems that having my identity confirmed would be a step towards the town's victory condition at this point.

[vollkan]

Okay, that makes 4 in favour.

Spurg has "noted" that I am leading this, and Elias has expressed some concern. I know for certain that I would be doing exactly the same in your situation, since my proposal fits both with me being town and equally with me being scum.

A bit of a dilemma arises on the matter of lynching ABR. On one hand, lynching him would save him the 70 page reading of the thread, but it would also deprive us of his views on things.

[Elias_the_thief]

of course, id feel like an ass for making him read into an inevitable lynch tomorrow. Maybe we should stop the reading now.

[vollkan]

of course, id feel like an ass for making him read into an inevitable lynch tomorrow. Maybe we should stop the reading now.

That's how I feel about this also. It seems rather ridiculous to make him read 70 pages if he is only going to end up being lynched today or tomorrow.

[Gemelli]

OK by me. It's not just that the thread is 70 pages; it's 70 pages that practically drip with thick content. Let's be humane about it.

And for the record, my claim ... Dr. BlackStrike's chaotic feints and hints were pure bluff. I am a vanilla townie who harbors a bit of hostility to the player he replaced.

[vollkan]

Do you guys want me to claim as well?

[Gemelli]

Considering that we only have two unclaimed players left in the game (you and ABR), why not? I don't think it's strictly necessary, but I'm curious anyway.

[vollkan]

I'm vanilla. That only leaves ABR.

[vollkan]

Just a thought that occurred to me:

Spurg, you say that Elias targeted nobody. When AlyG investigated Lucienne, he said:

Ok guys, i'm so happy to be alive, and during night 2 i tracked Lucienne and got

NO RESULT

i guess this means she is a confirmed townie?

Did you receive a PM telling you that Elias did not have a night action, or did you simply receive no PM?

[Albert B. Rampage]

Yeah I'm vanilla too. I'm pretty happy with the plan, although I won't be able to take credit for this victory, alas...lol

[vollkan]

Okay then. The choice seems arbitrary at this point, but I'll spare ABR the need of having to commit to this game any more:

Vote: ABR

[Albert B. Rampage]

Vote: Gemelli

All my games are recorded, and I don't want to be lynched *again*, and have people using that as an argument against me at a future date.

Ok.. that was a lame argument. However, Gemeli commented on the night actions which is pretty scummy.

[vollkan]

A very lame argument indeed. If you are talking about your wiki article, just make it clear that you weren't lynched because of behaviour per se.

As for Gem's comments: You would need to have read the game to have a clue as to what the big issue was. Basically, the prospect of Orig possibly being SK has been causing immense frustration (and complicated number stuff from myself) since he claimed vig on D2. Whilst the fact we lost the vig was obviously bad, it did finally clear up our situation.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Isn't it just better to lynch the scum straight-away ?