Open 554 - omg, like, jungle republic!! + game over~~

[Thor665]

You had just done what I was commenting about.

[Justin Playfair]

You had just done what I was commenting about.

So it seemed. Which is why I posted what I did.

[Majiffy]

Dot da dot dot dot.

Carry on, Thor.

[Not_Mafia]

That's because today is when the alignment hunting started

Well, you've misinterpreted what I wrote here, whether unintentionally or not. What is the evidence that I was mafia, or scum of any sort for that matter, that exists from before my "association" with "certain mafia" "mnemonic/thor"?

Because Majiffy is my town read and I don't think the Tiershift and S and Em (come to think of it) kills would make sense from you

He is and was my biggest townread. Again, you're overstating my defense of Kat/Reinoe.

Posts in which you defended Katarina (not including those where you joined to press a case on jon/lia cming in to today: 12. You made 47 other posts in total, including 12 no content posts. So 12 just over one quarter of your posts with content. I lefy out today because it might be fair to argue that in part you were arguing over your defense of the Katarina slot today, but the number today is 14-8. I just don't think I'm overstating this, Not_Mafia. I don't think it would be possible to overstate it.

I could go through your ISO and pull out an arbitrary number of posts where you're doing X or defending Y. Pull up posts where you think my "defense" of Kat's slot is fake or a partner tell. Because all I remember you having a problem with is me correcting people reading her for non-alignment indicative things, i.e. her general posting style and personality

Assuming we don't hit mafia today Thor is the one who will be driving that ship tomorrow. If this is your roundabout way as asking me which read I'm more confident in. It's you.

Oh I don't know about that, Not_Mafia. I mean if we foolishly end up lynching Lia today I can see tomorrow breaking with you making the argument that maybe Justin's mafia with Reinoe, or maybe Justin's mafia with Majiffy, but since Justin's surely mafia let's lynch him (so Reinoe and I can win). I notice that Reinoe's already floating me and Majiffy as scum buddies (which is...insane) so the seed's already in the ground. And it's disingenuous to say Thor would be driving the ship. Thor and your mafia partner would hold two of the three votes necessary to power a lynch.

If Lia's flip were to contradict my current reads then yes my reads would change, what is your point here? And if you don't think Thor is going to take a stranglehold of any future lynches then you're in for a rude awakening tomorrow

Oh, and about Majiffy and the Ninja lynch. There was soft pushback, and even that pushback didn't last long, except from me and S and Em. But thank you for making me look back through that, because if I hadn't I wouldn't have noticed this:

VOTE: ninja trigger

being right next to this:

VOTE: ninja trigger

#293 was a bridge too far for newbtown

You and Katarina have just been going everywhere together, haven't you? At least you gave a reason.

Funniest thing about that. I was looking at competing day two wagons and the only other real one was on S & Em. It fell apart when two of it's three votes left at the same time. Let's see, those votes were from...huh...Katarina and you.

So we voted at a similar time based on a post from NT also sent S and Em and Wolfy (who was also scumreading S and Em) over the edge on their read of him, both of whom have flipped town.

Also, you didn't really respond to my not-wolf case on Majiffy

[Thor665]

@Mod - pre-emptive prod request on Lia. COnsidering he current votes and gamestate we're functionally just wasting time until she shows up...frankly, wouldn't mind one on Reinoe either, if you're feeling generous, as he's exactly the other one we're waiting on, and both are currently at 24+ hours at this stage, which means with the time left in the day they could potentially via your rules suck us into deadline with only one post each, which is frustrating)

@Justin - I'll go ahead and toss out a 'hey, sure, respond to N_M's 'not wolf' case on Majiffy.

@Majiffy - your opinion on Justin not being a wolf - go!

@Lia - if you are Mafia this is an optimal time to claim that, I'm not going to lynch you if you're Mafia, and anyone who isn't a Wolf would be playing bad if they kept voting you after a Mafia claim.

@Reinoe - if Lia claims Mafia who would you vote?

@N_M - same question as Majiffy, why the hell not?

[Majiffy]

Its a possibility ive been considering which explains resistance to hammer lia

[Thor665]

Yeah, a wolf basically wouldn't care, and a Mafia wouldn't really care either as long as the wagon wasn't on his partner and he mildly thought there was a wolf chance...since he's not exactly shaking down the walls with his alternate wolf suspect of you it really reads to me as he's probably Mafia or Town.

The thing is, if you buy that, do you still think Lia is a good lynch and why?

[Lia]

@Lia - if you are Mafia this is an optimal time to claim that, I'm not going to lynch you if you're Mafia, and anyone who isn't a Wolf would be playing bad if they kept voting you after a Mafia claim.

Nope, I'm VT. I've been going back and forth on who I think is most likely to be wolf and I keep coming back to reinoe. Why would mafia set up a seer fake claim knowing the wolf would kill them if they claimed it? But a wolf would have the motive of using it to counterclaim a guilty on them.

I'm still waiting for replies from reinoe.

[reinoe]

Posting from my phone. Excuse me, but I'm deliberately ignoring the WIFOM shitstorm this thread has devolved into. I'll answer Thor's questions tonight.

[Thor665]

@Reinoe - The thread is not a wifom storm. I'll go ahead and encourage you to also respond to Lia.

@Lia - what's your read on Justin then, since he refused to hammer you?

[Majiffy]

The thing is, if you buy that, do you still think Lia is a good lynch and why?

Because we know scum either way.

Justin + Lia if Lia flips mafia.
And Reinoe wolf.

Game.

Hence why I'm not so dickhard about hitting wolf today. Game's pretty much over as long as we hit any scum.

[Thor665]

Theoretically true if everything in your proof is correct - being able to assign alignments to them so you understand what you're choosing and what theoretical relationships need to exist though makes for a better move overall.

@Justin - an additional theoretical. You think Majiffy is the wolf. You think that Lia is town. That means both Mafia (N_M and Reinoe) are voting for Lia. Why do you think they're making such a poor move and if one of them claimed would you sheep them onto Lia?

[Marquis]

sorry for the delay folks

---

votecount 4.10!!

Lia (3) ::

Not_Mafia, Majiffy, reinoe (L-1)

Majiffy (1) ::

Justin Playfair (L-3)

reinoe (1) ::

Lia (L-3)

not voting (1) ::

Thor665

deadline is 3 days from this post ::

(expired on 2014-06-09 16:00:00)

with 6 alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch!!

[Marquis]

@Mod - pre-emptive prod request on Lia. COnsidering he current votes and gamestate we're functionally just wasting time until she shows up...frankly, wouldn't mind one on Reinoe either, if you're feeling generous, as he's exactly the other one we're waiting on, and both are currently at 24+ hours at this stage, which means with the time left in the day they could potentially via your rules suck us into deadline with only one post each, which is frustrating)

sorry, but i will give prods when it's been at least 48 hours since a player's last post. (i also realize both have already posted, making this response late.)

[Not_Mafia]

I don't see the Tiershift and S and Em kills coming from JP, he was in a 1v1 with Tier at the end of day 2 that Tier was barely trying to win and S and Em was whiteknighting him pretty hard

[Not_Mafia]

@Lia - if you are Mafia this is an optimal time to claim that, I'm not going to lynch you if you're Mafia, and anyone who isn't a Wolf would be playing bad if they kept voting you after a Mafia claim.

Nope, I'm VT. I've been going back and forth on who I think is most likely to be wolf and I keep coming back to reinoe. Why would mafia set up a seer fake claim knowing the wolf would kill them if they claimed it? But a wolf would have the motive of using it to counterclaim a guilty on them.

I'm still waiting for replies from reinoe.

I don't think that's necessarily a crumb though, from what I've googled it was referencing a character in a US soap opera who was infertile. But I guess the question actually at hand is "Did Lia genuinely believe that was a Seer crumb?" JP mentioning offhand with no real explanation that he thought Kat was Seer could maybe be a slip i.e. they discussed it in their QT and JP let it slip out. If they are scum together though then Lia has done some very solid distancing, which is what hold me back as reading them as a scumteam

[Lia]

@Lia - what's your read on Justin then, since he refused to hammer you?

Possibly wolf due to 339 plus a couple of places where he seemed to be distancing himself from the kill on Tier.
I don't see him as being mafia now due to the lack of hammer unless he's playing a waiting game. He also doesn't fit with Majiffy as mafia so if both are scum one would have to be wolf, and I think Majiffy is more likely to be wolf than mafia.

If reinoe is wolf I think mafia must be Majiffy/Justin and NM
If Justin is wolf then mafia is reinoe and Majiffy/NM
If Majiffy is wolf then mafia is reinoe and Justin/NM

Reinoe is the only one I'm sure is scum. Most likely wolf but could well be mafia and NM's 715 is another pointer to that.

I don't see the Tiershift and S and Em kills coming from JP, he was in a 1v1 with Tier at the end of day 2 that Tier was barely trying to win and S and Em was whiteknighting him pretty hard

Maybe he the whiteknighting meant they were mafia?

I don't think that's necessarily a crumb though

Why do you think she posted it if it wasn't a crumb?

JP mentioning offhand with no real explanation that he thought Kat was Seer could maybe be a slip

I think it was me that Justin said he thought was a seer. And I don't think he's replied to my question about that yet.

[Lia]

EBWOP: *Maybe he thought the whiteknighting meant they were mafia?

[Not_Mafia]

Why do you think she posted it if it wasn't a crumb?

I think it was me that Justin said he thought was a seer

She posts weird stuff like that a fair bit so I don't think that was definitely a crumb, I think Wolf is in [Lia/Reinoe], so the question for me now is "Does Lia genuinely believe that was a breadcrumb?" and this crumb thing is pretty random to pull out your arse like this.

The bold is correct. So ignore what I said in #715 about a slip.

Maybe he the whiteknighting meant they were mafia?

Certainly possible. But if I were in JP's position as wolf, I definitely wouldn't have made kill choices. I understand that that doesn't mean he didn't do it, but they still seem like bizarre choices for a JP wolf from my perspective

[Not_Mafia]

ISOing Lia her attacks on Justin are actually a lot tamer than I remember, but her other reads (Tier and S and Em) sync up with the wolf kills, so this game is a bit of a headfuck right now

[reinoe]

@Reinoe - if Lia claims Mafia who would you vote?

I'm from the "scum is scum" camp. However it's clear that Lia's scummy life is sacred. However my admittedly moonlogic theory goes out the window with Justin's vote on Majiffy.

UNVOTE: Lia

[Thor665]

@Lia - why would Justin Werewolf hold off on lynching you to chase Majiffy? I know he, as Mafia, would only hold off on you because either you're his partner or he's playing really poorly - and so you can't really back either of those, natch. But I'm not sure why Wolf him would hold off of finding you worthy of lynch, Wolf prefers a Mafia lynch, natch, but with my claim and a kill, he actually is in a decent position to nail whomever, so I don't really see why a Wolf wouldn't want to hammer you. Instead he defends you. Want to walk me through this?

@Reinoe - Okay, so what's your less moonlogic case? I presume you agree with me that Justin isn't the Wolf. I am not the Wolf. You will claim to not be the Wolf. That leaves you Lia, N_M, Majiffy (with possibility of Justin = Mafia with Lia) I'll also admit that I don't think N_M nor you make a lot of sense as the wolf. That leaves Majiffy as obnoxious wolf busser, or Lia as Wolf. My current boggle is if Lia is the Wolf, it means Justin is town, and if Justin is town than my desire for Majiffy and N_M to both be town is wrong.

@Mafia - could still really do with a Mafia claim. I don't think I like town's odds shooting in the dark here.

[Thor665]

Honestly, Mafia, with Justin a likely 'not wolf' and me - your accuracy should be *reallly* good at spotting the wolf. Unless Justin is yours.

So, really, Justin, if Mafia, should claim, or some other Mafia should claim, because then we can bag wolf pretty easy, and then it's just down to the non-Justin/non-claimed-Mafia to sort the business in a lylo like a man. But, seriously, no one wants that little stinky wolf to win, he's stinky and has been trying to kill us all, and I've never allowed a wolf to win a Jungle Republic I was in yet, and I know we don't want to start now.

Frankly, if Justin *is* Mafia, the other partner might want to claim instead of him, it would be super tricky and would actually make Justin look more likely town and potentially gak with us in lylo trying to sort him.

I'm literally handing you brilliant play here.

[Majiffy]

*Note "allowed" - I got ThorTown lynched as wolf last time we played this setup, so he had no say in my eventual win.

[reinoe]

@Reinoe - Okay, so what's your less moonlogic case? I presume you agree with me that Justin isn't the Wolf. I am not the Wolf. You will claim to not be the Wolf. That leaves you Lia, N_M, Majiffy (with possibility of Justin = Mafia with Lia) I'll also admit that I don't think N_M nor you make a lot of sense as the wolf. That leaves Majiffy as obnoxious wolf busser, or Lia as Wolf. My current boggle is if Lia is the Wolf, it means Justin is town, and if Justin is town than my desire for Majiffy and N_M to both be town is wrong.

I don't think both Majiffy and N_M are town...
VOTE: Majiffy