Open 557: Deck of Stacks [Game Over]

[Justin Playfair]

Your point about town tells is a good one though, and I have to admit that unless scum went way underpowered here, they'd claim a PR on the way down. And possibly even more likely then.

What I don't understand penguin, is that when you took your vote off Katen last night it was in response to the case Crash made. And the Crash case wasn't that he thought tn was a better lynch than Katen, it was that he believed Katen could not be scum. But then you came right in and laid an early morning vote on Katen. So what changed between your accepting Crash's point last night and making an immediate vote on Katen this morning?

Vote: penguin_alien

Can you name me some non-powerful PRs?

We'll start with gooncop

Why do you believe a gooncop would be non-powerful in this game?

[Cheery Dog]

Votecount 2.02

Katengecchi

(2) Burning_Earth, penguin_alien

penguin_alien

(2) talah, Justin Playfair

Burning_Earth

(1) beastcharizard

Not Voting

(6) Katengecchi, Desperado, CrashTextDummie, Finglove, Paschendale, SeeEmpty


With 11 Alive, 6 vote are required to lynch
Deadline: Friday, May 30, 2014, at 10:30 PM EDT (UTC-4), which is in (expired on 2014-05-30 22:30:35)

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[penguin_alien]

Your point about town tells is a good one though, and I have to admit that unless scum went way underpowered here, they'd claim a PR on the way down. And possibly even more likely then.

What I don't understand penguin, is that when you took your vote off Katen last night it was in response to the case Crash made. And the Crash case wasn't that he thought tn was a better lynch than Katen, it was that he believed Katen could not be scum. But then you came right in and laid an early morning vote on Katen. So what changed between your accepting Crash's point last night and making an immediate vote on Katen this morning?

Vote: penguin_alien

Because somehow yesterday we didn't lynch. I'm not saying I wasn't complicit in that, but quite frankly I was busy with the main thing that was important enough to be V/LA for and wasn't online. Yet there was a VT claim that didn't get lynched in the absence of anything better to do. That to me indicates scum buddies who didn't want one of their own hung. It's only slightly mitigated by the part where it dumps us back in odds because giving PRs information via flips to help direct night actions is also important, so it obviously wasn't a strategic NL.

Knowing that tn5421 was town doesn't make me feel better about Katen. Add on that the case was from CTD, who declined to respond to my challenge to read me, and yeah, things changed.

[CrashTextDummie]

Prod dodge. Content tomorrow.

[SeeEmpty]

VOTE: Katengecchi

Withdraw: "townslip part does makes them look town". Rereading it again the townslip part does feel artificial. It feels more like they already know it is PT and not QT, and managed to find just enough reason to back off from their Talah push.

Add: They kept their vote off the 2 competing wagons during the final phase of the day. They managed to make a post, but decided to do nothing useful, just asking people to "do something", while knowingly stated that no lynch would be terrible.

The same goes for Burning_Earth. Unvoting at the final stage without scum reading and voting another person is really not helpful. He then proceed to apologize for not able to stop the NL, which I fail to see any effort from him on that.

[Desperado]

Can you point out to me where people were saying it was irrelevant bullshit as opposed to anti-town?

I'm waiting for everyone to post, not seeing much that's pinging me just yet.

Judging from your first post i thought you'd be townhunting, did you miss the part where we got a scumread on you based on your first post entirely?
Re: What would you pick as scum? I think i'd pick nothing, not going to elaborate on why as that would give scum ideas on what to do if they did the same thing. I can think of the value on asking what they'd do as that could help us find what the scum picked after some flips, but not the why, so I don't know why everyone's discussing that.

-Saki

vote: Desp

Not random. Discuss.

Though I felt insulted that my name was 'compared' to a title of my little pony >.<

As for stacking the deck, I'd probably have gone for daytalk and JoaT. My buddy wouldn't have had the opportunity to refuse >:]
Enjoy telling how this could help.

#24 was a response to the end of Talah's #23 where she said nothing had pinged her either direction thus far.

Ok. The quote in your post about beastcharizard vote on pim confuses me a bit. So it's a misquote then.

It's just a gut feeling that discussing the setup before the game is over is going to backfire on us.

Can't really see how the discussion would backfire, but discussing what setup would someone prefer if they're scum does generate unneeded and unrelated content that makes re-read more laborious, which is mostly what happened in page 1.

With that said, irrelevant bullshit is antitown by definition so I don't even understand why you bothered to make the distinction in the first place.

[Katengecchi]

Prod dodge, more later

-Koromo

[Paschendale]

I haven't actually changed my mind on all the things that make me think Katen is scum. And if anyone would pull a gambit like that, I think Saki would. I don't know about Koromo's style.

I really don't like Justin's vote on Penguin.

[Burning_Earth]

@justin: Gooncops are so unreliable. Like guilties are cool but they aren't likely to happen and innocents don't mean anything.

[penguin_alien]

I really don't like Justin's vote on Penguin.

Eh, I'm more interested in how he responds to my last post. No pressure there, matey!

[Finglove]

@justin: Gooncops are so unreliable. Like guilties are cool but they aren't likely to happen and innocents don't mean anything.

A goon cop can't detect a traitor, is that how they play? An innocent read is still pretty powerful then - there's a chance the traitor was recruited, and Bayes says an innocent read is much more likely to be town than traitor.

[beastcharizard]

If the Mafia chose PRs they are no longer goons though so they would turn up innocent as well.

[talah]

With that said, irrelevant bullshit is antitown by definition so I don't even understand why you bothered to make the distinction in the first place.

This might just be a difference of opinion on what constitutes "irrelevant" (I'm going to say that Katen went on to argue pretty strongly that it would give scum an advantage; Pim threw his hat in the ring with what he would have done and asked how it would help, didn't say it was irrelevant; to be fair SeeEmpty does seem to think it's irrelevant) - and I don't think irrelevant and anti-town are synonymous, nor do I think the initial discussion was either as I indicated.

Not really the point I guess - wondering actually how you feel it's going to help town to speculate over roles at this point in the game when nobody except any remaining PRs would know, and they probably wouldn't want to be involved in the spec anyway. Comes across as rolefishy and your statement does nothing to move the game forward.

So anyway looking forward to the hard reset and am *still* waiting on your read on peng, because I'm getting nothing from her and she seems really controlled/deliberate to me which I think is a scumtell for her.

[CrashTextDummie]

I think SeeEmpty is scum. I get the strong impression that he didn't have the balls to vote someone he knew was a town PR with several townies present who wanted to give TN a chance. He was the only player around who agreed with me that TN's claim seemed fake, but he didn't back it up with a vote. His stated reason for having Katen as a stronger scum read still was that they defended Charizard, which is very weak. It all feels very calculated to me: Agreeing with me in large parts as to Katen looking town (so he wouldn't look as bad once they flip town) and doubting TN's claim to potentially set up his mislynch. That he's now going back on the Katen town tells is also very telling to me, evidently they are not going to get lynched by themselves.

------------

I also have trouble seeing why PA changed her mind on Katen again:

Knowing that tn5421 was town doesn't make me feel better about Katen. Add on that the case was from CTD, who declined to respond to my challenge to read me, and yeah, things changed.

Your "challenge to read [you]" is profoundly silly. I have a bad track record reading you when we are town together. I didn't have a town read on you in the recent game we finished. And I am on record as not having developed a good grasp on your scum meta despite our shared scum game. Besides, this goes both ways: You're arguably among the players most familiar with how I operate as scum and you're also off a recent shared town game with me. And yet you don't seem to have effortlessly zoned in on my alignment either. It's a weird piece of burden of proficiency you are trying to put on me. I don't find you easy to read at all.

So my case for Katen town is not good anymore because what, I was wrong about TN? Or because you think I am scum with Katen?

------------

Instead of a half-hearted excuse, I'd actually like Burning Earth to outline his thought process and motivation in unvoting the leading wagon and disappearing from the thread with 2 hours to go until deadline.

------------

I still think Katen are town. With the knowledge that TN was town, I'm less bothered by Playfair's end-of-day play, since he actually engaged me and tried to talk me out of lynching TN despite our mutual distrust. His lament that we reached the worst possible outcome rings somewhat false since he could have done something to prevent it, but since scum knew for a fact that lynching TN would have been worse I don't see it as an obvious scum statement.

vote: SeeEmpty

[Cheery Dog]

Votecount 2.03

Katengecchi

(3) Burning_Earth, penguin_alien, SeeEmpty

penguin_alien

(2) talah, Justin Playfair

Burning_Earth

(1) beastcharizard

SeeEmpty

(1) CrashTextDummie

Not Voting

(3) , Katengecchi, Desperado, Finglove


With 11 Alive, 6 vote are required to lynch
Deadline: Friday, May 30, 2014, at 10:30 PM EDT (UTC-4), which is in (expired on 2014-05-30 22:30:35)

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[SeeEmpty]

...but since scum knew for a fact that lynching TN would have been worse...

Do you mind explaining this?

[talah]

@Mod - Votecount is wrong atm (looks like they're transposed one down or something) :P

Oops, I deleted a row and didn't make adjustments to my indirect fields. ~Cheery

[Burning_Earth]

Thought process.

I didn't want tn lynched.

I didn't know it was 2 hours till deadline

[talah]

Oops, I deleted a row and didn't make adjustments to my indirect fields.

*cough*
I'm voting peng, not Katen.

[Cheery Dog]

prodding Justin Playfair

[Finglove]

Also, katenscum probs killed tn because HE WAS A POWERFUL PR

I've been thinking about this more. I don't think tracker is a powerful role in this game. There are three mafia, and up to three town prs other than yourself and the innocent child. So in the best case scenario, in which there are no other active ability town PRs, you have a 1/10 chance of tracking a mafia on a kill, and otherwise you get a near-null result. In the worst case scenario, there are three other good town prs moving around to confuse things, and a Mafia Rolecop who doesn't kill people. In short, were I mafia, I would not be scared of the tracker over a confirmed innocent child who can help direct town efforts during the day.

So why did scum choose a worse outcome? If Katen were scum, I don't see what they gain from killing tn: I think we were more likely to lynch tn today anyway, so they'd have until D3 before worrying. The mostly likely set up to me is that

1) Neither Katen nor tn were (are) scum
2) Scum were carefully split between the two wagons and couldn't jump at a late stage for fear of looking scummy
3) They want us to lynch Katen and will then kill the IC overnight.

...and therefore I'm not up for a Katen lynch today, unless someone can find some flaws in my logic. In the next 24 hours or so I'll do a full read of pa and burning, as they seem a bit keen for a Katen lynch.

[Justin Playfair]

Eh, I'm more interested in how he responds to my last post. No pressure there, matey!

Hi Penguin. I'm sorry, but I think you're going to be disappointed. Your response to me made me more suspicious yet. First just a bit of background. Here is where you were:

tn5421--unlikely to be scum with Katengecchi, and more to the point I want to see where he goes from here. I feel right now like he's a Wrong Place/Wrong Time townie. Jury's out, meh.

So yeah, feeling stubborn about Katengecchi, would lynch mlearn2 as well, wouldn't defend Voidwalker1234. Those count as scum reads?

Then this, where you announce your V/LA and ask for Crash to read you.

CTD, you said you weren't sure about my play here (which, yes, I've been inactive lately; surprise!IRL things running amok) but now we're right off a game with town-me, and you know how I think as scum as well as anyone after 164. If you can narrow down your read on me, that would be super.

Mod, V/LA for me for 48 hours please. Thanks!

Yes, this means I almost certainly won't be moving my vote...

Which is followed a few hours later later by this:

Leaning town based on your play, but I didn't like your predecessor so you don't get a giant town endorsement.

Your point about town tells is a good one though, and I have to admit that unless scum went way underpowered here, they'd claim a PR on the way down. And possibly even more likely then.

VOTE: tn5421

L-1

And then, as soon as morning dawned:

VOTE: Katengecchi

Let's see what happens.

All right, with that in place let's look at your posts since then:

You're too intelligent to not realise that what will happen with a vote like this, is another day of pointless arguing over whether Katen's scum with or without TN. This is an entirely safe scum-vote peng.

Hey, look at that, someone defending Katengecchi. Who said I want to spend the day arguing? I'm also just fine with lynching Katengecchi. And why would we argue over whether Katengecchi's scum *with* tn541?

First, ignoring the part where you may well have misunderstood Talah's point about arguing whether it was more or less likely that Katen was scum in light of tn flipping town, there is your seeming comfort with quick lynching Katen. But this is right after last night, when you seemed won over by the Crash argument that Katen was not scum. Plus, the quickness with which you point out "someone defending Katengecchi" just rings as absolutely false. Talah kept her vote on Katen last night when it counted, and fought pretty hard to get that lynch. Your words look like a pretty obvious attempt at distraction.

And your response to me looks bad too. There's the mea culpa about being a very significant part of why we didn't get a lynch yesterday, and yes, the numbers are the numbers. But then there's this:

Add on that the case was from CTD, who declined to respond to my challenge to read me, and yeah, things changed.

When you posted this answer to me Crash had spent all the rest of Day One's twilight arguing his case to get tn lynched. Why would he have taken time away from that to read you? I wouldn't have if you'd asked me. There was something much more important going on. And Crash hadn't yet posted today.

That is not a valid reason for things to have changed.

[penguin_alien]

^ Heh, don't really care, TBH, if you think my wanting to vote Katengecchi is valid. It is what it is.

Yes, I asked CTD to take another swing at reading me, since he prevaricated like hell. And I'd have no problem with him telling me to bug off, given the lack of urgency of such a read. And I actually kind of like his response to it today: not feeling obligated to make something up. Not enough to move my vote right now, but still. Kind of wish he'd done so yesterday; better late than never. As far as him not answering it yesterday, his answer didn't involve any heavy analysis, just a one-line explanation. The fun of written Mafia being that multiple subjects can be addressed at once.

You claim I'm willing to quicklynch Katengecchi. What exactly makes you think that?

What exactly is your point about my vote shifting? I had a bit of time to check in, I took it, and tried to help a lynch go through.

[Justin Playfair]

Hi penguin,

Just a couple answers:

You claim I'm willing to quicklynch Katengecchi. What exactly makes you think that?

This.

You're too intelligent to not realise that what will happen with a vote like this, is another day of pointless arguing over whether Katen's scum with or without TN. This is an entirely safe scum-vote peng.

Hey, look at that, someone defending Katengecchi. Who said I want to spend the day arguing? I'm also just fine with lynching Katengecchi. And why would we argue over whether Katengecchi's scum *with* tn541?

Are you not saying here that you don't need to spend the whole day arguing, that you would be just fine with lynching Katen? If not, what exactly were you saying?

What exactly is your point about my vote shifting? I had a bit of time to check in, I took it, and tried to help a lynch go through.

Well, not exactly. Katen was at L-1. When you changed your vote it put tn at L-1. This wasn't a case of you trying to avoid a no-lynch. You very clearly stated your reasons for moving your vote from Katen to tn and they were based on the case Crash made. As soon as dawn broke this morning you voted Katen again, and your reasoning behind why you are now entirely discounting the case Crash made still doesn't ring true to me.

[Paschendale]

Despite any wifom, I don't see Katen as town and I don't have a better suspect.

VOTE: Katen