NY 170: Georgetown II (Game Over)
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Thesp Supersaint
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Hello all! I'm currently reading start to finish right now. It looks like we have some time at the moment, but I don't expect to waste any with my vote once I've finished reading. I'd appreciate it if there are any points in particular you think I should highlight in my read - let me know. Thanks!"When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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I'm up through about Page 48. Based on patterns set by predecessors, I think I'm supposed to say, "I ain't reading all this stuff, tell me who to vote".
(I am actually still reading. It will likely be tomorrow before I finish, though do feel free to carry on as you were.)"When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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Thesp Supersaint
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Several faces I recognize! Hello to all of you oldies! I think I even played in a newbie game with Sotty7 and The Fonz when they were newbies. (Don't hold me to that memory - I could be making it up.)
I don't want to reward Aegor's hissy fit and I want him to lose for it, but I don't think he's scum. I particularly appreciate his insistence on getting a lynch, and not waiting until the deadline to do so. I'm not interested in lynching him.
kabooooom and inHimshallibe are my favorites for scum, though I haven't yet analyzed them together (only vis-a-vis Albert B. Rampage). I also could see RainbowDash as scum, even if only for ABR's request to Zekrom25 to seek replacement. I think Thor665 and emogirl123 are significantly most likely to be town. I'm not fond of Bulbazak in the least, but I find ABR's direct comment to Bulbazak here to be a little weird to a scumbuddy. I'm of two minds on Chevre, particularly since I doubt scum would openly discuss the nightkill in such detail like he does here (though I think such discussion is actually a useful tool)."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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Thesp Supersaint
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I almost forgot:
VOTE: kabooooom
I'm happy voting for inHimshallibe as well, and would seriously ponder a RainbowDash vote. Other wagons will get consideration as the day goes on. I will not be a lone Cassandra, insisting I'm right with my single vote in the middle of nowhere near a deadline."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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Thesp Supersaint
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I'm still hesitant to think that scum would evenIn post 2046, emogirl123 wrote:
Sorry this needs a double post. There was a very good post by one of my replacements about Chevre's exact post.In post 2040, Thesp wrote:I'm of two minds on Chevre, particularly since I doubt scum would openly discuss the nightkill in such detail like he does here (though I think such discussion is actually a useful tool).
The problem with the post is that Chevre made a genuine analysis yet resulted in a WIFOM read. In retrospect with ABR's flip, this is scum.In post 1199, Tony PF wrote:
I think it does point to ABR. FMPOV Chèvre only said it was WIFOM, she never said it didn't point to ABR.In post 1191, emeraldemon wrote:@Tony PF
You say you liked Chevre's analysis in 1118, but I thought Chevre concluded that the NK didn't point to ABR. Which part are you agreeing with?doa nightkill analysis publically like that, given the general backlash there is against it. Given his voting history I wouldn't mind if he were to swing from the gallows, but he's not at the top of my list.
Hello there! =DSotty7 wrote:Holy crap it's Thesp! Long time no see!
Can you tell me why Rainbow is a good lynch option but yet you are voting her big wagon? Seems like a disconnect there.
Catching up on the rest I missed, just had to acknowledge Thesp first
In my readthrough when I hit kabooooom's Post 1751, I immediately thought "kabooooom is lurkerscum. Holy crap.". His activity has been sparse and only seems to pop up to look useful rather than to be useful. Even his ABR vote was crap and forced. I wasn't comfortable with how he requested the modkill on DisCode for inactivity (which came across differently than Aegor's did). He's got all the hallmarks of scum who got kicked in the pants overnight to post more. (I'm hesitant to even bring that up, because Idon'twant to disincentivize activity. The particular nature of this uptick feels like this to me, though.)
I acknowledge RainbowDash was pushing kabooooom hard yesterday. I also acknowledge I might be wrong about RainbowDash. Heck, part of me wants to go for RainbowDash instead of kabooooom simply because kabooooom was the other wagon when ABR flipped scum. Yet I have some misgivings due to how hard RainbowDash was pushing kabooooom and directly disavowing the ABR wagon. I think scum are more likely to be indirect in defending scumbuddies."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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Thesp Supersaint
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Oh, and can someone tell me why there are several people saying that emeraldemon is likely town? I don't get that at all, but I swear I saw some people saying that."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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Thesp Supersaint
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I pondered that as well. I don't think it's out of the question that both wagons were on scum. In a game like this where we've almost certainly got fewer scum around (the total number bandied about has been 3, which seems reasonable to me), and there's not a lot of scum that can push a "counter-wagon" to try to divert a scum lynch. Heck, ABR and kabooooom vote for each other, and here is the most they say about each other all Day 3:In post 2065, Thor665 wrote:
I don't really disagree with any of your scumspects (though I'm wavering on InHim I'll admit, his shift to Albert felt really organic.In post 2041, Thesp wrote:I almost forgot:
VOTE: kabooooom
I'm happy voting for inHimshallibe as well, and would seriously ponder a RainbowDash vote. Other wagons will get consideration as the day goes on. I will not be a lone Cassandra, insisting I'm right with my single vote in the middle of nowhere near a deadline.
That said, you're voting a counterwagon to scum yesterday.
You're voting..the counterwagon...to scum.
Talk to me Thesp, what's going on here?
Neither are super-eager to push any sort of pressure on the other. If they are both scum (which seems reasonably possible), they either both have to push another case (possibly even together?) to create a viable "counter-wagon". With only probably one other scumbuddy out there (who probably really wants to keep their hands clean of all of it), that doesn't give them a lot of chance of diverting the wagons. Can you imagine the storm that would pop up if the two leading wagonees both voted for someone else,especiallyif at least one of those wagonees turns out to be scum?
I think there's a reasonable chance that the majority of players (most of whom are town) were right about both wagons yesterday. If this weren't an all-vanilla setup, I might be less sure of that.
emeraldemon beats me to this somewhat, but since I already typed it up, here it is as quoted in HighShroomish's own posts:In post 2094, Thor665 wrote:What was the townslip though? I forgot about that, and if it's good then I can just lob Shroom back into my town pile and lynch Bulba or Rainbow, which would be sexy.
Spoiler: HighShroomish's Infamous Town Tell
I was through with my catchup when I posted my suspicions. Sorry!In post 2088, inHimshallibe wrote:I want Thesp to get through his catch-up. I don't find a kabooooom vote highly inspiring (or suspecting me, for that matter ).
Re-reading Bulbazak, I don't know what to think of him, especially since I think his reads have been drastically wrong the entire game. Still happy with my vote on kabooooom. Willing to be flexible with my vote on a couple of my reads as the deadline approaches."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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Thesp Supersaint
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Pondering it. Give me a day.In post 2111, Thor665 wrote:@Thesp - I see a great case there for how useless Kaboom is as a player.
He was still the counterwagon to scum though.
Vote: Rainbowdash
Want to sheep me here?"When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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Thesp Supersaint
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Ha! Thinking about it, I'm less interested at the moment. I would consider it if the wagon were bigger, but I have no interest in further splitting wagons when the kabooooom wagon is tied for the largest (albeit at 3), and you're the only one on RainbowDash right now.In post 2113, Thor665 wrote:It is now past the hour, meaning that somewhere the date has become tomorrow.
Sheep?
I'm not interested in a Thor665 lynch today. I still don't see Aegor as scum at all.
To emeraldemon, Bulbazak, and kabooooom (the current Aegor voters):
What would your second vote choice be?"When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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Thesp Supersaint
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I'm actually going to cite RainbowDash's thought process from last page here:In post 2134, Thor665 wrote:
Besides maybe Chevre, no one who is not voting Aegor has expressed particular desire to lynch Aegor. Many of them have expressed town reads on Aegor. That wagon is dead and is too silly to notice it yet.In post 2132, Thesp wrote:Ha! Thinking about it, I'm less interested at the moment. I would consider it if the wagon were bigger, but I have no interest in further splitting wagons when the kabooooom wagon is tied for the largest (albeit at 3), and you're the only one on RainbowDash right now.
The Kabooom wagon currently has at least one person on it (Rainbow the scum) who is calling Kabooom possible town, and is toying around with voting me because I'm spotting how scummy she is.
Highshroomish is probably town so when he actually tries to explain the case he's agreeing with and realizes how it doesn't make sense I think his vote will be back in play, and probably even back in play and available for Rainbow.
A two vote wagon at this stage is pretty potent.
You have indicated possible belief in Kabooom town.
You are still voting a counterwagon to scum.
It is still near the start of the phase.
What the hell are you doing and thinking right now?
I don't agree with the content here, but I totally understand this sentiment, because I have been going back and forth like this for the entirety of my play here (several whole days!). I see players who are crazy-scummy, but see a few very strong town-tells that change my mind entirely. Then I wonder if they're really town-tells. Ad infinitum.In post 2119, Rainbowdash wrote:Im seriously mulling over just saying Thor is scum here and kab is town who is just generally lurky/useless. Always feels odd when you are convincing yourself you are wrong like this.
I still think there's a good chance kabooooom is scum. I have also acknowledged that kabooooom was an alternate wagon to scum, but I thought I'd explained how there's a good chance (especially in this particular style of game) why that's less disconcerting to me. That is to say, for it actually to be acounterwagonrather than the town running up two scum players, I'd have to have some realistic belief that scum are concertedly pushing kabooooom in place of ABR. The strongest possibility does indeed come in the form of RainbowDash, yet quixotically I think the robust strength which RainbowDash pushed makes it less likely it's scum-motivated.
Yes, I think both kabooooom and RainbowDash are decent possibilities for scum, and simultaneously I doubt they are scum together. I don't know what else I can say about that.
(As an aside, what do you mean "It is still near the start of the phase"?)"When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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Thesp Supersaint
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This is my favorite post of the last several pages.In post 2152, Aegor wrote:I do not think that Thor is a particularly good lynch for today. The associative info will be minimal (he has basically voted me/ABR all game).
Chevre seems to be on the scummy side of most players' lists. Lynching Chevre also has the benefit of compelling emogirl to do something other than call for Chevre's lynch. I happen to have a strong townread on emogirl, so this possibility is appealing to me.
Kab would also be a great lynch because he is both scummy and useless."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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Thesp Supersaint
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Because I entirely understand where it all comes from. It's crazy sensible to me.In post 2157, Bulbazak wrote:
Why? There's enough eye twitchiness here to send my Buttercup gif into spasms.In post 2155, Thesp wrote:
This is my favorite post of the last several pages.In post 2152, Aegor wrote:I do not think that Thor is a particularly good lynch for today. The associative info will be minimal (he has basically voted me/ABR all game).
Chevre seems to be on the scummy side of most players' lists. Lynching Chevre also has the benefit of compelling emogirl to do something other than call for Chevre's lynch. I happen to have a strong townread on emogirl, so this possibility is appealing to me.
Kab would also be a great lynch because he is both scummy and useless.
I'm following along on my phone this weekend, and will be able to post more substantially tomorrow. I will note that it feels like there are about 4 players who are posting obscene amounts, which makes it harder for the others to keep up, and there are quite a few others I'd especially like to hear from."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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PJ! OMG! HI!
=D"When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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Thesp Supersaint
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What? You don't want pages and pages more of discussion on a generally presumed townread? Pssh.In post 2214, Sotty7 wrote:I'm not really sure why you are focusing so much on your town read of emo instead of your scum reads. You should probably change that.
I'm not going to be the only voter on a wagon at this point. I have no interest in lynching petroleumjelly today. I also have no interest in lynching Aegor or Thor665, another two of the four wagons which have more than one voter on it (which surprises me). I am willing to lynch Bulbazak, but more as a compromise lynch.
We need to start consolidating our votes pretty soon. We don't have a lot of time.
UNVOTE: kabooooom
VOTE: RainbowDash"When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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Thesp Supersaint
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Is there anyone who thinks kabooooom is town? Someone give me any reason, any reason at all to think he's town. There are so many players who have given me reasons to think they are town, many of whom have semi-wagons on them right now. Yet kabooooom has given me no reasons to think he's town, and has given several reasons to think he's scum. The apathy towards him is mind-numbing, and enables his play. Yeesh.
I'm a bit irritated that we have less than two-and-a-half days, and aren't close to a lynch (and of those who have 2+ votes on them, 2 are in my likely-town pile, and another close to it!). I worry that people think we'll be able to move wagons easily because the thread is so active, when in reality there are a few over-active posters, and a significant number of people just dragging their feet.
We need to get to lynching. Soon.
UNVOTE: RainbowDash
VOTE: Bulbazak
My current willing-to-vote list is kabooooom, inHimshallibe, RainbowDash, Bulbazak (in that order). I will likely vote for whichever of these I can make into the biggest wagon, and break ties based on my preference order."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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Thesp Supersaint
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Can I get your thoughts on my earlier post regarding this, that extend past "Counterwagon to scum", which you keep repeating as if it's meaningful in this instance? Can you also remind me of your top 3 candidates for scum?In post 2240, Thor665 wrote:
Counterwagon.In post 2236, Thesp wrote:Is there anyone who thinks kabooooom is town? Someone give me any reason, any reason at all to think he's town.
Scum.
Whassup?
Spoiler: Thoughts on "counterwagon"
I will be happy moving back to RainbowDash if there are others also willing to vote her, which is not currently demonstrated according to our votecount. I have no interest in seeing 5 different wagons right now with 2 days left before a no-lynch."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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Thesp Supersaint
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Can you show me where you addressed that? I'm looking for your thoughts specifically related to "counterwagon". Can you quote them? Because all I saw in your walls and walls and walls and walls and walls and walls of posts was this, unless I'm overlooking something:Thor665 wrote:
I addressed that post - my point was 'whether or not it's theoretically possible that we ran up two scum - he's not a good lynch today regardless'.In post 2241, Thesp wrote:Can I get your thoughts on my earlier post regarding this, that extend past "Counterwagon to scum", which you keep repeating as if it's meaningful in this instance? Can you also remind me of your top 3 candidates for scum?
Spoiler: Thor665's response to Thesp "counterwagon" thoughts
Again, I think "counterwagon to scum"in this particular gameis not as meaningful as you seem to think it is. I don't understand your overreliance on it."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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Thesp Supersaint
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One more vote on kabooooom and I move my vote there as well."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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From a subset of {kabooooom, inHimshallibe, RainbowDash, Bulbazak}, absolutely.In post 2251, Thor665 wrote:
Because he only wants to be voting the biggest wagon.In post 2250, kabooooom wrote:i dont get this. i remember thor did this too, but why are you waiting for someone else to vote. i m asking in general irrespective of my wagon."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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I haven't looked into whether a inHimshallibe/Bulbazak team is persuasive.In post 2257, inHimshallibe wrote:
Am I bussing Bulbazak?In post 2255, Thesp wrote:
From a subset of {kabooooom, inHimshallibe, RainbowDash, Bulbazak}, absolutely.In post 2251, Thor665 wrote:
Because he only wants to be voting the biggest wagon.In post 2250, kabooooom wrote:i dont get this. i remember thor did this too, but why are you waiting for someone else to vote. i m asking in general irrespective of my wagon."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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Howso? Because that's how I'd consider Aegor.In post 2266, HighShroomish wrote:I am 1000000000000000000000% sure Bulba and RBD are town. As cabd would put it, they are town as fuck."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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Maybe in the same way that:In post 2275, Thor665 wrote:How does "read her ISO" answer that? It doesn't even come close to trying. It's not even a valid response, that's like if someone asked me what the weather was like and I answered 'my favorite food is cookies' it's an answer, sure, but it's not an answer to the question i was asked.
...is a complete answer to a complex question.Thor wrote:
(This is not to say I agree with HighShroomish or think his answer is appropriate - I still think he's way off base.)
kabooooom, Rainbowdash, Thor665, and petroleumjelly:
I'd love to see you move your votes to a wagon that can get a lynch, ordo somethingto make your very special cupcake lynch happen."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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Fair enough - I suppose that part is more meant for the other three. I do hope you'll be willing to vote for a wagon over no-lynch should it come to that, but hopefully it won't come to that.In post 2282, Thor665 wrote:
Are you seriously saying you don't think I've been campaigning over here?In post 2280, Thesp wrote:I'd love to see you move your votes to a wagon that can get a lynch, ordo somethingto make your very special cupcake lynch happen.
For the record, I'm willing to move to Rainbowdash today if it's shown to be a viable wagon. I strongly encourage other people who share this conviction to clearly state so."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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UNVOTE: Bulbazak
VOTE: Rainbowdash
More later."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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Sorry for the brevity of my last post - was stuck in traffic, saw the update, thought I'd post a vote switch in the hopes that we could lynch Rainbowdash today over Bulbazak, as is my preference. I should be around, however, to move my vote as needed to secure a lynch.
Since when is this not scummy?In post 2309, Sotty7 wrote:As for the inhim scum movement. I'm not sure what the case on him is. He lurks a little and posts minimally, but is there something he actually did that was scummy?
I have little blips all over my notes that make me uncomfortable with him. I will note Post 1061 sticks out the most to me: Zdenek and Albert B. Rampage are bickering back and forth while ABR has a wagon, and inHimshallibe ignores it entirely to post about two other players.In post 2309, Sotty7 wrote:He lurks a little and posts minimally"When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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After your vote, I think Bulbazak is at 6, and Rainbowdash is at 4.In post 2314, kabooooom wrote:Only 5 hours left, I guess I will hammer bulb."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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If Rainbowdash was at L-1, would you be voting for her?
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Back.
UNVOTE: Rainbowdash
VOTE: Bulbazak"When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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I don't know if I've ever been happier to be wrong about my gut feeling about a lynch.
My heart wants to lynch kabooooom, but I need to re-read to see if that's actually sensible. I'm open to no-lynching as well, provided we want to do it soon today. I don't want to wait until the last minute on that.
Re-reading stuffs now."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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I haven't re-read quite yet, and hopefully will get something substantively posted by tomorrow. My apologies for not hopping on this earlier. I am admittedly having a hard time wrapping my head around this game."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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(This coming from someone who won't read Day 1? ) I meant further back, to at least skim Bulbazak's interactions with everyone. Not just yesterday.In post 2389, Thor665 wrote:
I'm not sure why - it's not even that wally or spammy.In post 2386, Thesp wrote:I haven't re-read quite yet, and hopefully will get something substantively posted by tomorrow. My apologies for not hopping on this earlier. I am admittedly having a hard time wrapping my head around this game.
I keep coming back to a feeling, which is somewhat encapsulated in a comment you had to me earlier:
I've felt very uneven in this game, and yesterday's flip only exacerbated it. Heck, I have several notes on how sketchy Bulbazak was, and looking back it seems so obvious, but I had written him off as not interesting to pursue because of a single comment from ABR to him. And I feel really silly for that right now. I don't think there's anyone obviously scummy except kabooooom (who only pops up when called), yet a significant majority defend him for reasons beyond my comprehension. I wasn't keen on inHimshallibe, but he's one of the first on the Bulbazak wagon, which makes me think he's likely town. I have significant disagreements with you and your play right now, but I can't bring myself to consider voting for you right now because I can't tell if it's just play disagreements or really thinking you're scum. To some very real extent, I want to vote for petroleumjelly, if only because emogirl123 has been significantly more right this game than I clearly have been. (I think there are other good reasons as well, but as stated above, I'm not quite sure what to think right now.)In post 2249, Thor665 wrote:I don't understand your unreliance on any reads at all[...]
In any case, I support the petroleumjelly wagon, but will wait a moment rather than put him at L-1 right now.
Ooh! Ooh! I know this one! "Because she was counterwagon to scum". Right? =PIn post 2401, petroleumjelly wrote:2.)Thor665, why do you think RainbowDash shouldnotbe my top suspect? What about Bulbazak flipping scum makes you think RainbowDash is more likely to be Town?
I think the timing and nature of his votes are incredibly suspect. I'd check them in context, and I'd be curious to hear what you think of them there.In post 2406, Aegor wrote:VCA Findings:- kab on both scum wagons and neither town wagon. Towncred, unless one posits that he is newbscum who overvalues bussing and not being on mislynches.
It was in the next post I made:
It was to make sure we could lynch RainbowDash instead of Bulbazak if the opportunity presented itself. Which looks really swell in retrospect.In post 2313, Thesp wrote:Sorry for the brevity of my last post - was stuck in traffic, saw the update, thought I'd post a vote switch in the hopes that we could lynch Rainbowdash today over Bulbazak, as is my preference. I should be around, however, to move my vote as needed to secure a lynch.
My notes on HighShroomish are very sparse, and I didn't have high thoughts on OGML though others seemed to. I will keep an eye out in my read-through.In post 2406, Aegor wrote:Would love some HS votes though. Or at least thoughts on him -- what do y'all think of HS?
Re: No Lynch, I think No Lynch is unhelpful when the numbers work against usif and only ifthere's someone everyone thinks is clearly town. There are a few people that are close to that category, but I'm not sure we fit that situation right now. (This may be my uncertainty in this game talking again.) I'd be more gung-ho about no-lynching right now, except our moderator has already shown a willingness to modkill if a replacement absolutely cannot be found within a reasonable timeframe. I'd hate to No Lynch, then have another modkill take out a townie."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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WARNING: INCOMING WALL. This should be my only wall of the day, or hopefully of the game.
Because I thought RainbowDash was more likely to be scum. I thought there might be a chance to lynch her instead of Bulbazak, so I pushed for it.In post 2417, Aegor wrote:@Thesp: My question was rather why you wanted to lynch RBD over Bulba toward the end of the day. Why not just let the Bulba wagon gain speed?
I thought I had explained a bit earlier why I'm more hesitant of my own judgment - I was uncertain of reads before, and now made even more uncertain with the last flip. I think I may just not like all-vanilla games. They're less interesting.In post 2421, petroleumjelly wrote:2.)Thesp, you claim you are tempted to vote for me because emogirl123 has more less had better reads than you over the course of the game. How closely have you paid attention to her reads? Have her reads tempted you into voting any players besides me?
Why are you not willing to rely on your own judgment? This feels highly unnatural for you. emogirl123 was posting by the end of yesterday without confirmation of bulbazak being scum. You now have confirmation that bulbazak was scum and confirmation that emogirl123 was Town, as well as confirmation of your own alignment. By necessity, you should have a clearer view of the game by this point.
*time passes*
That said, I went to re-read some of emogirl123's more recent posts to see if there was anything else that stood out besides Chevre, and I came across this:
...and I figured I should just suck it up and get the re-read done. I have done so. I feel a bit more comfortable with some of my guesses, which will come at the end of this post.In post 2070, emogirl123 wrote:@Kabooooom, I hate playing the WIFOM game, but I really really don't think team scum is Chevre and Bulbazak together. For this to be true, team scum would have needed to all vote me Day 1, and tunnel my slot for the remainder of the game. That would be such terrible play.
I suppose my sarcasm on this point was unclear. I totally agree with you that the concept of "counterwagon" in this kind of game is a bit silly. I thought I was being clearly silly, since I had been going back and forth with Thor on this quite a bit yesterday, since he seemed against a RainbowDash wagon solely on the reason that she was a "counterwagon to scum". I tried multiple times to elicit more clear responses from him on this point (the post you quoted being one such moment), which fell on deaf ears.In post 2421, petroleumjelly wrote:4.)
I edited my response to this before submitting. Suffice it say you should consider yourself officially guilt-tripped. I will just be blunt.In post 2411, Thesp wrote:
Ooh! Ooh! I know this one! "Because she was counterwagon to scum". Right? =P2.) Thor665, why do you think RainbowDash should not be my top suspect? What about Bulbazak flipping scum makes you think RainbowDash is more likely to be Town
The term "counterwagon" does not mean much when there are only two scum remaining in the game. Bulbazak was not pushing for a RainbowDash lynch. Therefore the only way RainbowDash could be a scum-coordinated counterwagon would be if the remaining partner was pushing for the RainbowDash lynch. However, it seems just as (if not more) likely that the partner was bussing Bulbazak, or else voting somebody else completely. Your comment here is particularly surprising given that you have already touched on this exact issue earlier:
Your opinion seems to be increasingly changed by popular opinion over your own thought processes. Please go back to being Thesp.In post 2108, Thesp wrote:In a game like this where we've almost certainly got fewer scum around (the total number bandied about has been 3, which seems reasonable to me), and there's not a lot of scum that can push a "counter-wagon" to try to divert a scum lynch.
I want to do this sooooooo much. I really do. But I think RainbowDash is the play today.In post 2361, Aegor wrote:I want kab to die soooooooooooooooooooo bad.
Coming pack to this post, this is something I looked for in the re-read and didn't see at all. Can you show me what you thought was organic about the shift? It looked very abrupt to me.In post 2065, Thor665 wrote:I don't really disagree with any of your scumspects (though I'm wavering on InHim I'll admit, his shift to Albert felt really organic.
Going into my re-read, Chevre/PJ and Brian Skies/Thor665 were the people I was most interested in (along with kabooooom). Coming out, I am significantly less interested in their deaths. Here's why:
Chevre/PJ:
emogirl123 made a comment that stuck out to me, which was quoted above, that she didn't think Bulbazak and PJ would be scum together. As much as I think Chevre has done crazy scummy things, with both ABR and Bulbazak's voting patterns, there would be some unusual groupings in votes. In Post 1225-1256, Chevre and ABR are the only two people voting for Tony PF. As ABR's wagon is starting to significantly come apart, Bulbazak becomes the third voter against Tony PF, without anything other than the vote, and at a time where there were plenty of lynch possibilities. It would be very, very weird to me for only three scum to be the only voters on a single player in a relatively short order, particularly when there were other reasonable targets out there.
Brian Skies/Thor:
Similarly to Chevre, there was a time early on when emogirl123 was gaining traction, that the voters were in this order: [Maestro, NS, Bulbazak*, Garmr, Brian Skies, ABR*...]. If Brian Skies is scum, we have a wagon featuring three scum on the wagon again in very short order (with only Garmr in between). That's some pretty hardcore clumping if that's the case. There's also a point where Brian Skies and Slandaar are big wagons with ~2 days to go. ABR moves from Slandaar to emeraldemon, which implies to me he doesn't care which of Slandaar and Brian Skies gets lynched.
On the flipside of things, here are my top 3 for scum in order:
RainbowDash:
Many reasons previously stated/intoned, but neither Maestro or Zekrom25 inspired any confidence, and RainbowDash really pushed against an ABR lynch.
kabooooom:
There is nothing he has done which has been useful, and his votes have generally been bad. He lurks until his name is called, and he's all over the map. He plays when and how it's convenient, and nothing more. He needs to die.
HighShroomish:
The only thing that gives me pause is that he opened D3 deflecting the ABR wagon...towards Bulbazak. And Bulbazak seems to question the "towntell" of HighShroomish's number of scum estimation. Otherwise, OGML did nothing redeeming, his push against Aegor is terrible, and he never returns to his first-stated Bulbazak suspicions (even questioning another player that thought Bulbazak was scum).
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What do you mean on developing those lines of thought? kabooooom votes for ABR at the sort of time you would bus your partner when they were probably going to be lynched anyway, and doesn't push hard for ABR at all. ABR votes for kabooooom, but doesn't push the wagon at all either. They look like they want their votes to show up on each other, but I see no real effort from either to get the other lynched. Notably, Bulbazak doesn't vote on either, but stays on the sideline between the two of them.In post 2456, Aegor wrote:Thesp,why is your attention so narrowly focused on kab? You admit the possibility that both D3 wagonsw ere on scum and have told me that you found kab's vote timing weird. You have not actually developed those lines of thought at all. Please do so now: why is kab scummy? What made kab's votes suspect? How do you reconcile his voting pattern with scum alignment? Why do I feel like you are not really trying?
Want to lynch between PJ and HS today. PJ's posts have been IIoA, and bad A at that. The No Lynch thing seems more like a stalling tactic than anything else. Chevre's slot is hella scum. Already posted my thoughts on HS.
I also don't think PJ's no lynch thoughts are stalling, I think he opened with that, and would begin with that regardless of his alignment."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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Why can't he be both? He was hardly around at the end of D1 (and left his vote on a townie), only pops up with the self vote near the end of D2 when the lynch was determined, and has actually been around more near the end of the last few days. I can imagine a host of real-life circumstances where that would play out just so, and when he actually is around, he's opportunisticIn post 2459, Aegor wrote:
Given kab's play, I find it unlikely that scumkab would not be on either of the town wagons but on both of the scum wagons. Either he is opportunistic and mercurial or he is not; you cannot have it both ways.What do you mean on developing those lines of thought? kabooooom votes for ABR at the sort of time you would bus your partner when they were probably going to be lynched anyway, and doesn't push hard for ABR at all. ABR votes for kabooooom, but doesn't push the wagon at all either. They look like they want their votes to show up on each other, but I see no real effort from either to get the other lynched. Notably, Bulbazak doesn't vote on either, but stays on the sideline between the two of them.
Can we destroy PJ today and lynch RBD tomorrow?at best.
I also thought I explained why I don't want to destroy PJ. =P What do you think of my justifications?"When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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I'd love to know who your top 3 scum picks are, andIn post 2460, kabooooom wrote:
pure fluff!! i have lot to say but that would just be waste of my time!In post 2458, Thesp wrote:
What do you mean on developing those lines of thought? kabooooom votes for ABR at the sort of time you would bus your partner when they were probably going to be lynched anyway, and doesn't push hard for ABR at all. ABR votes for kabooooom, but doesn't push the wagon at all either. They look like they want their votes to show up on each other, but I see no real effort from either to get the other lynched. Notably, Bulbazak doesn't vote on either, but stays on the sideline between the two of them.In post 2456, Aegor wrote:Thesp,why is your attention so narrowly focused on kab? You admit the possibility that both D3 wagonsw ere on scum and have told me that you found kab's vote timing weird. You have not actually developed those lines of thought at all. Please do so now: why is kab scummy? What made kab's votes suspect? How do you reconcile his voting pattern with scum alignment? Why do I feel like you are not really trying?
Want to lynch between PJ and HS today. PJ's posts have been IIoA, and bad A at that. The No Lynch thing seems more like a stalling tactic than anything else. Chevre's slot is hella scum. Already posted my thoughts on HS.
I also don't think PJ's no lynch thoughts are stalling, I think he opened with that, and would begin with that regardless of his alignment.whythey are your top 3 scum picks."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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No. I wanted to see why you thought it was organic.In post 2464, Thor665 wrote:
Since when does "abrupt" preclude "organic"?In post 2457, Thesp wrote:Coming pack to this post, this is something I looked for in the re-read and didn't see at all. Can you show me what you thought was organic about the shift? It looked very abrupt to me.
He asked me about a case, a side case that I was pushing without a lot of attention, for the record. He initiated on it with an expression of not buying the case. He looked at the evidence. He suddenly vote shifted, functionally getting the wagon rolling at that stage.
You're calling this...a bus?"When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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I thought your answer was useful in ascertaining you better. (Sorry if I don't have anything big and grand for you on this point.)In post 2466, Thor665 wrote:And now that you have?"When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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I overlooked that it was indeed a top 3 list - it was hard to read. In any case, thanks for pointing me to it.In post 2469, kabooooom wrote:
i already did in my post #2378 if you paid any attention at all you would have known!In post 2462, Thesp wrote:
I'd love to know who your top 3 scum picks are, andIn post 2460, kabooooom wrote:
pure fluff!! i have lot to say but that would just be waste of my time!In post 2458, Thesp wrote:
What do you mean on developing those lines of thought? kabooooom votes for ABR at the sort of time you would bus your partner when they were probably going to be lynched anyway, and doesn't push hard for ABR at all. ABR votes for kabooooom, but doesn't push the wagon at all either. They look like they want their votes to show up on each other, but I see no real effort from either to get the other lynched. Notably, Bulbazak doesn't vote on either, but stays on the sideline between the two of them.In post 2456, Aegor wrote:Thesp,why is your attention so narrowly focused on kab? You admit the possibility that both D3 wagonsw ere on scum and have told me that you found kab's vote timing weird. You have not actually developed those lines of thought at all. Please do so now: why is kab scummy? What made kab's votes suspect? How do you reconcile his voting pattern with scum alignment? Why do I feel like you are not really trying?
Want to lynch between PJ and HS today. PJ's posts have been IIoA, and bad A at that. The No Lynch thing seems more like a stalling tactic than anything else. Chevre's slot is hella scum. Already posted my thoughts on HS.
I also don't think PJ's no lynch thoughts are stalling, I think he opened with that, and would begin with that regardless of his alignment.whythey are your top 3 scum picks.
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I am getting a bit numb from repeating it. See quotes in spoiler.In post 2477, Sotty7 wrote:Thesp still pushing on Kab is almost mindnumbing. I get it he is bad and we had the badness but there seem to be no arguments for why he is scum, at least nothing I have seen.
Spoiler: Thesp's arguments on kabooooom
On thop ofthat, I can come up withat leastone reason for every player in the game as to why they might be town,exceptfor kabooooom. I don't understand the resistance to even pondering him as scum. Now you're welcome to disagree with me that these points are scummy, but to say no reasons have been presented is forgetful at best, and disingenuous at worst.
I thought I was pretty clear throughout all of yesterday that I wanted to make sure there was a lynch, and that Bulbazak was 4th on the list of people I wanted to lynch (and RainbowDash was 3rd). Was that unclear? I do agree that my vote lynching Bulbazak nets me zero towncred.In post 2491, Aegor wrote:
That was really questionable, and he only ever explained that switch after harshly pressed by me this game day. Reviewing Garmr, he is meh and he had a really bad non-case against me early on.In post 2486, Rainbowdash wrote:Only reason I am voting Thesp is that he was on Bulb until my wagon took off where he bailed before the resigned return mixed with I know its going to be pointless to try and argue that you or Sotty is scum today
Still want to lynch PJ. Would be fine with Thesp lynch. HS also needs to die.
RainbowDash & inHimshallibe, do you think Bulbazak was bussing Garmr throughout the game? They butted heads on a number of occasions, and based on context clues, Bulbazak seems to have given a pretty voluminous case on why he thought Garmr was scum (in the posts that were eaten in the great OM NO of '014)."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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And HighShroomish, can you explain the Aegor vote? It makes no sense to me whatsoever."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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Sorry I missed your inquiry. I didn't think it looked organic in my re-read yesterday, but I haven't gone back and read it with the lens you suggested. (If it came down to needing to decide on voting for him, I would, but we're a long ways from that.) I wasn't convinced that the ABR vote made him look town because IIn post 2495, Thor665 wrote:In post 2473, Thor665 wrote:
So did it look organic or not to you, and also do you think it makes him look town or not?In post 2468, Thesp wrote:
I thought your answer was useful in ascertaining you better. (Sorry if I don't have anything big and grand for you on this point.)In post 2466, Thor665 wrote:And now that you have?didn'tfeel organic, but he really pushed hard on Bulbazak, and coupled with that, makes him off the table for a vote from me anytime soon."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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He defended ABR pretty hard throughout D1 & D2, and defends ABR in post 1579 & 1580 opening on D3. Pushes Bulbazak and casts doubt on Sotty7 in 1581 (specifically for voting ABR and pushing someone else). Votes ABR in next post on 1617 with no explanation.In post 2497, Thor665 wrote:Why doesn't it feel organic to you?
...however...
In researching this post, I just noticed that in between 1581 and 1617 is the Great OM NOM of '014. So, inHimshallibe may have had some further discussion I'm not privy to in those lost posts. So, his shift may entirely have been organic. Nevermind on my part - I don't think there's a lot I can learn on that at all now.
(Again, inHimshallibe is not on the table anytime soon, as he was pushing pretty hard on Bulbazak too before it was cool.)"When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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You keep referring to this case of yours that you think converted inHimshallibe - can you quote it for me? I can't find it. I suspect it may have been lost in the Great OM NOM of '014, and could be the source of confusion in our perspectives. Page 64 onward is where I'm looking at.In post 2499, Thor665 wrote:I really feel like all of your commentary shouldn't just be taking him off the table "anytime soon" but rather simply off the table.
Listen to yourself - you're saying he was hard defending ABR...and then quick reversed suddenly?
Like...seriously, what do you think his scum plan was there? "Have to defend ABR, must protect him, watch as I crush Thor's case...oh, Thor has a case? IMMEDIATE BUS!"
I don't even understand the motivation you're pegging him with here.
Clarify?
(The motivation would be to slip onto the wagon on D2, then he comes out D3 on ABR as a planned "let's make this thing into a bus". After the Bulbazak lynch, he does indeed call himself confirmed. In any case, please read pages 64 and 65, and imagine someone not being aware of any pages in between, and let me know what you think.)
I believe it's not unreasonable that there may have been a scum plan for someone to look townie by bussing. (The "*confirmed*" quote early today has struck a cord with me for whatever reason, though it probably shouldn't.) I'm not ready to call anyone cleared forever in this type of game.I'm hesitant to even spend this much time on it because I think it might be distracting, but if it helps you ascertain my motivations, then so be it. (I mean really, we're fighting overThat said, it's really only likely I'd look more at that if it came down to an endgame with inHimshallibe. It's still significantly more likely that inHimshallibe isn't scum with them. I don't think it's worth considering him scum right now.just how muchwe think inHimshallIbe is town, rather than who scum is.)
What are your thoughts on RainbowDash today, Thor665?"When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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It's not yourIn post 2502, Thor665 wrote:So you didn't think the interaction looked organic...but didn't even know where the interaction happened.
1579 and 1671 would be the interaction.
I've also already expressed my thoughts on RBD as recently as 2433 (posted...yesterday) Did I do something that made you think my reads had changed between now and then?interactionwith inHimshallibe that I thought looked inorganic, it's hisswitchthat felt that way (which came well before 1671, and I didn't see 1579 as earth-shattering, but I may be wrong). Also again, as noted earlier, I don't think I can say his switch felt inorganic because I am not privy to the lost posts.
My question about RainbowDash was perhaps a crass way to try to change the focus of our conversation from someone we both think is likely to be pro-town onto someone I think we should lynch, and to see if we could try to get some momentun on lynching RainbowDash today. I think you and I are spinning our wheels with each other on inHimshallibe at the moment."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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When would this "potential lynch" be? I've got three people clearly listed well ahead of him. I've stated it's really only a consideration if it ends up in an endgame with him, and even then I'm not sure. It all stems from a question I had to you to help me try to ascertainIn post 2505, Thor665 wrote:Conversely, I feel like you might be setting him up for potential lynch and am trying to see if I can discern legit town attitude in that discussion or not. I'll admit I don't feel happy with what I've found thus far and it's frustrating because you feel skeevy in this interaction.youa bit better (even though I think you're still likelier town as well), otherwise I wouldn't even be talking about it. I guess I don't know what else to say."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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Seeing that I'm voting for RainbowDash, I'm going to say no. I disagree with a petroleumjelly lynch and stated my reasons for doing so. I can quote them again if needed. I would like to see any non-voters come around and pick a vote.In post 2509, Aegor wrote:Thesp, are you strongly opposed to a non-kab lynch?"When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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Is this the emogirl123 case on Chevre people are referring to?In post 2070, emogirl123 wrote:@Kabooooom, I hate playing the WIFOM game, but I really really don't think team scum is Chevre and Bulbazak together. For this to be true, team scum would have needed to all vote me Day 1, and tunnel my slot for the remainder of the game. That would be such terrible play."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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Not unlikelyIn post 2532, Thor665 wrote:@Thesp - how unlikely do you find it that three members of a scumteam would vote someone?per se. However, in the particular manners in which I described in Post 2457:
(1) Where two scum are the only voters on a wagon, and the third decides to vote for that wagon (when there are other viable possibilities) without explanation {Chevre example}; or
(2) as the 3rd, 5th, and 6th in quick succession (when there would be no scum off wagon) {Brian Skies example}.
I do find these two particular instances in a presumed three-scum game to be quite unlikely (and the first far more unlikely than the second)."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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Still following along, still happy with my vote on RainbowDash. I haven't seen anything from petroleumjelly to change my town read on him, and he's seeing similar things that I did on my re-read. I agree with the Sotty7 townread (for the same reasons petroleumjelly states)."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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HighShroomish, who is your next vote after Sotty7? Presuming that wagon doesn't materialize, since most people think he's town. Like the Aegor one you were on before it today."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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Yes. (kabooooom)In post 2577, HighShroomish wrote:@everyone not on the PJ wagon
Say for a minute that the person you're voting is actually town. At this point, do you believe that there is scum on the PJ wagon."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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At this point, RainbowDash, HighShroomish, and Sotty7: you're the only ones not voting for someone with at least 2 votes. Please rectify this, or provide some good reason for doing so."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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I'd like to first see kabooooom and Sotty7 answer the question HighShroomish is specifically asking them (even if I haven't the slightest clue why he wants it answered):In post 2595, Aegor wrote:PJ has provided plenty of content. We have other content to examine if PJ flips town, and we are nearing deadline.
I would like someone to hammer unless there is a strong objection.
(I think there's an implied answer from kabooooom, but would like confirmation.)In post 2576, HighShroomish wrote:@everyone not on the PJ wagon
Say for a minute that the person you're voting is actually town. At this point, do you believe that there is scum on the PJ wagon."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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Rainbowdash, What changed your opinion of me becoming more scummy than Thor? What happened to your suspicion of kabooooom?"When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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Ummm...you're voting for Rainbowdash."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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I feel silly - I read HighShroomish's post as if it were yours. That will teach me to play by phone."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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Yyyup.
VOTE: RainbowDash"When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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I think he's likelier scum and I'm still not thrilled with his fight against ABR's lynch, nor his entirely ignoring ignoring the Bulbazak wagon. (There may be a hint of dislike for his vote on me, though I try to ignore that in my approach.) I also figure a RainbowDash wagon is slightly more likely to get off the ground. That said, I'd be quite happy with a kabooooom lynch as well.In post 2664, Sotty7 wrote:Thesp, why Rainbow and not Kab?
This sums me up pretty well also.In post 2667, emeraldemon wrote:Sotty,
This is all I've written so far. Honestly a lot of it is about PoE, I have townreads on you and Thesp, and I'm leaning town on HighShroomish, Thor, and Aegor. That leaves RBD and Kaboom.In post 2597, emeraldemon wrote:Rainbowdash, I can find plenty of instances of you defending ABR or directing away from his wagon (1788, 1803, 1808, 1843). And yet as I read your case against Thor (2114,2151) it seems largely about Thor not pushing ABR or directing away from his wagon. What's up?
I am still semi-paranoid about Thor (inHim did say "It's down to PJ and Thor for me" late yesterday -- 2585) and Aegor, so my main goals for today are to sort them, Kaboom and RBD as best I can. I'm happy to start with RBD."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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My apologies, the pronouns within should be "she/her". I'm happy to move to kabooooom if that's the way the wind blows - feel free to consider my vote as being on either one.In post 2684, Thesp wrote:
I think he's likelier scum and I'm still not thrilled with his fight against ABR's lynch, nor his entirely ignoring ignoring the Bulbazak wagon. (There may be a hint of dislike for his vote on me, though I try to ignore that in my approach.) I also figure a RainbowDash wagon is slightly more likely to get off the ground. That said, I'd be quite happy with a kabooooom lynch as well.In post 2664, Sotty7 wrote:Thesp, why Rainbow and not Kab?"When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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I had RainbowDash ranked slightly higher yesterday after the read-through - are you asking why I changed at that time?In post 2687, Aegor wrote:Thesp, why the flip-flop on kab v. RBD?
If I was Condorcet ranking Rainbowdash and kabooooom, though, I'm not sure I wouldn't put them on the same line. (Like I said, I'm still quite happy to lynch either.)"When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
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