NY 170: Georgetown II (Game Over)

[Thor665]

I'll agree a no lynch *is* helpful if all of town's lynch choices are totally random.

I'll even support a no lynch if everyone wants to tell me they have no town reads.

If people have any town reads at all though - then the plan is dumb.

[petroleumjelly]

No time for rereading today. Plan on continuing tomorrow evening.

~

1.)

As far as No Lynching, a confirmed (dead) Townsperson is better than a mere Townread that could easily be wrong. In a 4-player LyLo, having a "solid Townread" on one player and deciding between two others still carries the chance that your "solid Townread" is the final scum. Your odds are necessarily better if there are three alive. If the "solid Townread" is dead then there is no chance they were scum and you still get to decide between the final two. If the "solid Townread" is still alive, then either you either "know" who the last scum is, or your odds of catching the potential "solid Townread"-scum dramatically improves.

Extrapolate this for every day of the game. It applies to 4-players, therefore it applies to 6-players, 8-players, 10-players. Decreasing the lynchpool by one increases the odds of a lynching correctly every day it is done. The best time to No Lynch is immediately, because then your odds will have increased for

each

game day (as opposed to, for example, waiting until 4-players remaining).

Arguing that it is "namby" is vacuous. I could similarly argue that lynching is "namby" because you aren't "man enough" to No Lynch. It's rhetoric without support. What

does

have support is the odds of lynching correctly go up substantially with an odd number of players than an even number of players; it takes away the uncertainty of that last, unknown, even player. Link to Numbers, Part 1 concerning the general theory. With 10 players alive total (with 1 of the 10 being scum), the chances of Town winning 45.31%. If the number is instead dropped to 9 players alive total, the chances of Town winning increases to 54.29%. (The numbers could be off, I am relying on the Wiki, but there is clearly no doubt about the gist).

Furthermore, having Townreads is much, much better with an odd number of players alive. Keeping Townreads close to your chest is also a good idea (because necessarily you would rather scum nightkill a player you suspected if possible). Right now, it would be difficult for scum to accurately predict who the Town will think is Town / scum given that we just had a scumlynch and that is literally the last, most informative piece of information we will get for the remainder of the game. The longer a No Lynch is held off, the better scum will be able to manipulate the endgame because they will have a much better idea of what everybody's stances are, and people are more likely to have solidified themselves at that stage of the game, making them far more predictable.

2.)

Thor665, why do you think RainbowDash should

not

be my top suspect? What about Bulbazak flipping scum makes you think RainbowDash is more likely to be Town?

RainbowDash parked her vote on you ("not moving my vote" as of Post #2301) over voting for the only other viable wagon (Bulbazak) near deadline, effectively saying she was willing to No Lynch. Although Bulbazak's best option to stave off his own lynch was to help lynch RainbowDash, he failed to push in that direction. In fact, Bulbazak specifically questioned some people on why they would read RainbowDash as scum (claiming he had played with RainbowDash before, and that RainbowDash's hardheadedness is par for the course). Which is a strange tack to take given that RainbowDash had defended Albert B. Rampage rather vocally on Day Three. If RainbowDash is Town, you have to believe Bulbazak thought RainbowDash could be mislynched eventually while he kept his hands clean on the issue (which

is

plausible). Or else he did not attack RainbowDash because they are in fact scumpartners (which is

also

plausible). From the little I have reread, I am also thinking Maestro may well have tried to derail/defuse a potential Bulbazak-emogirl123 clash early on in the game, which again suggests a potential connection between Bulbazak and RainbowDash.

3.)

Sotty7, care to put in some work?

[Thor665]

1. Psssh.

2. I don't expect her to, after receiving heat for defending a scumbuddy yesterday, to pull the exact same gambit twice in a row, and then to do so in a weaker way. Either she should have felt he was worth defending or not, but to namby it - I don't think so. A real scum would have had an opinion on their partner, they wouldn't have just walked away from it for the sake of looking nullish. I will agree that Bulba took some actions to connect himself to Rainbow. He also buddied me as well. I consider it an obvious town tell on me, and I consider his lesser buddying on her in the same vein. I'll agree it's not as home run clear, but I'm content not to lynch her today.

[Thor665]

Oh, and;

1) You know what else increases town's chances numerically of lynching scum? No lynching until LYLO - then there is a very high percentage chance of lynching scum.

Whoop-dee-doo.

[Huntress]

Vote Count 5.1

petroleumjelly (3) - Thor665, emeraldemon, kabooooom
Aegor (1) - HighShroomish
Thesp (1) - inHimshallibe
kabooooom (1) - Aegor

Not voting (4) - petroleumjelly, Rainbowdash, Sotty7, Thesp

With ten players alive, it takes six votes to lynch.

Deadline for Day Five is Monday, 14th April 20.00 BST, (in (expired on 2014-04-14 19:00:00)).

[kabooooom]

I'll agree a no lynch *is* helpful if all of town's lynch choices are totally random.

I'll even support a no lynch if everyone wants to tell me they have no town reads.

If people have any town reads at all though - then the plan is dumb.

how no lynch helps if no one has any town reads?! How can no lynch give any idea of who scum is like lynching does?

[Aegor]

Large analysis post covering the last game-day.

VCA Findings:

• PJ slot was on both town wagons and neither scum wagon. Umm...
  
• kab on both scum wagons and neither town wagon. Towncred, unless one posits that he is newbscum who overvalues bussing and not being on mislynches.
  
• same thing for sotty7, and slightly less for inHim (joined NS wagon late)
  
• Thesp, thor were late on only one scum wagon

Spoiler: Possibly questionable posts

Whhhhhhhaaaa. Why is Bulba scum?

So I take it you agree with me that [Bulba]'s pretty obv. town and that's why you unvoted?

Why is RBD scum? So far this looks like standard RBD play to me.

I will 1-1

When any player says this and it is not immediately followed by "because this is an open setup and they cannot be town" it basically is the equivalent of saying "listen to nothing I have to say for the majority of the game because I am emotionally irrational and incompetent"

heacily drinking theory but still very true. This whole "me of them" logic is something only really dull players tend to use and usually dooms the town if remotely wrong. See half of games with LLD in it for reference of why this is anti-town at best.

I am vindicated by history. Yay!

*sigh* please don't let this be D1 all over again and have the wagon suddenly dissapear... Please.

VOTE: AEGOR

L-1.

Okay, so Aegor obviously doesn't give a shit about a wagon forming in one page if it's not on him(as told by the ABR wagon, which floated back and forth but gained a ton of steam over one page). Then he decides to have a hissy fit. Previous to this game day, he just sat around doing about as much fence sitting as possible, and then has a scum read on someone for not fence sitting. I could say half the people here were scum for opposing the ABR wagon at any given time, and RBD wanted kab as a better lynch. I would like to lynch this please.

Re-reading Bulbazak, I don't know what to think of him, especially since I think his reads have been drastically wrong the entire game.

Okay, so I'm thinking Aegor is scum with either Thor or emo. RBD,

Bulba

, what do you guys think?

VOTE: AEGOR

Ch-ch-ch-ch-chainsaw!!!

Ok, let's see.

VOTE: Rainbowdash

Why RBD and not Bulba?

Vote: Rainbowdash

I did not care for Maestro, I think your insistence on pushing kabooooom on Day Three over Albert B. Rampage was an attempt to divert pressure (and awkwardly done, likely for the sake of "loyalty"), and your claim that you did not realize there was a modkill that shifted the balance of the game is not believable.

I will check the thread again in the morning before leaving for my flight (so in about four hours). After that I do not think it likely I will be able to log on before the deadline hits.

Concerning the two other players most likely to be lynched: I am not opposed to a bulbazak lynch, but I would not be in favor of an Aegor lynch.

You posted several times before this saying you would vote for a lynch. And yet you refuse to join the Bulba wagon (while joining the less-popular RBD wagon, which very well could have failed) for no good reason? No me gusta.

UNVOTE: Bulbazak
VOTE: Rainbowdash

More later.

Why? Maybe I missed the reason; if so, just tell me to ISO you.



PJ's voting attitude toward Bulba is very suspect. There is almost no real interaction or opinion from PJ on Bulba, which I find implausible given how much of the day focused on him.

HS looks much worse upon re-read. He does not interact with HS in any meaningful way, and he never really pushes the hypocrisy case. Furthermore, HS's vote pattern yesterday was...not great. Especially toward the end. And his case on me was nonsense and awful. And his vote on me today was awful.


VOTE: PJ


Would love some HS votes though. Or at least thoughts on him -- what do y'all think of HS?

[Aegor]

Oh, and I think emogirl died primarily because Bulba's case practically cleared her, rather than because her reads were awesome (which they were -- she nailed Bulba) or in an attempt to frame someone. But I could be wrong.

[kabooooom]

Is it L-2??!!

[Sotty7]

Oh, and I think emogirl died primarily because Bulba's case practically cleared her, rather than because her reads were awesome (which they were -- she nailed Bulba) or in an attempt to frame someone. But I could be wrong.

Well yeah. she was obv town from the start of the game, but bulb flipping scum made her as confirmed as you can get in these games.

[Thor665]

I'll agree a no lynch *is* helpful if all of town's lynch choices are totally random.

I'll even support a no lynch if everyone wants to tell me they have no town reads.

If people have any town reads at all though - then the plan is dumb.

how no lynch helps if no one has any town reads?! How can no lynch give any idea of who scum is like lynching does?

I'm an IC in Newbie games quite a bit. I answer questions like this all the time there. I don't feel like writing you a thesis on basic mafia theory and math here though.
Go search MD.

Would love some HS votes though. Or at least thoughts on him -- what do y'all think of HS?

I think he's town.

[Thesp]

I haven't re-read quite yet, and hopefully will get something substantively posted by tomorrow. My apologies for not hopping on this earlier. I am admittedly having a hard time wrapping my head around this game.

I'm not sure why - it's not even that wally or spammy.

(This coming from someone who won't read Day 1? ) I meant further back, to at least skim Bulbazak's interactions with everyone. Not just yesterday.

I keep coming back to a feeling, which is somewhat encapsulated in a comment you had to me earlier:

I don't understand your unreliance on any reads at all[...]

I've felt very uneven in this game, and yesterday's flip only exacerbated it. Heck, I have several notes on how sketchy Bulbazak was, and looking back it seems so obvious, but I had written him off as not interesting to pursue because of a single comment from ABR to him. And I feel really silly for that right now. I don't think there's anyone obviously scummy except kabooooom (who only pops up when called), yet a significant majority defend him for reasons beyond my comprehension. I wasn't keen on inHimshallibe, but he's one of the first on the Bulbazak wagon, which makes me think he's likely town. I have significant disagreements with you and your play right now, but I can't bring myself to consider voting for you right now because I can't tell if it's just play disagreements or really thinking you're scum. To some very real extent, I want to vote for petroleumjelly, if only because emogirl123 has been significantly more right this game than I clearly have been. (I think there are other good reasons as well, but as stated above, I'm not quite sure what to think right now.)

In any case, I support the petroleumjelly wagon, but will wait a moment rather than put him at L-1 right now.

---

2.)

Thor665, why do you think RainbowDash should

not

be my top suspect? What about Bulbazak flipping scum makes you think RainbowDash is more likely to be Town?

Ooh! Ooh! I know this one! "Because she was counterwagon to scum". Right? =P

---

VCA Findings:

• kab on both scum wagons and neither town wagon. Towncred, unless one posits that he is newbscum who overvalues bussing and not being on mislynches.

I think the timing and nature of his votes are incredibly suspect. I'd check them in context, and I'd be curious to hear what you think of them there.

UNVOTE: Bulbazak
VOTE: Rainbowdash

More later.

Why? Maybe I missed the reason; if so, just tell me to ISO you.

It was in the next post I made:

Sorry for the brevity of my last post - was stuck in traffic, saw the update, thought I'd post a vote switch in the hopes that we could lynch Rainbowdash today over Bulbazak, as is my preference. I should be around, however, to move my vote as needed to secure a lynch.

It was to make sure we could lynch RainbowDash instead of Bulbazak if the opportunity presented itself. Which looks really swell in retrospect.

Would love some HS votes though. Or at least thoughts on him -- what do y'all think of HS?

My notes on HighShroomish are very sparse, and I didn't have high thoughts on OGML though others seemed to. I will keep an eye out in my read-through.

---

Re: No Lynch, I think No Lynch is unhelpful when the numbers work against us

if and only if

there's someone everyone thinks is clearly town. There are a few people that are close to that category, but I'm not sure we fit that situation right now. (This may be my uncertainty in this game talking again.) I'd be more gung-ho about no-lynching right now, except our moderator has already shown a willingness to modkill if a replacement absolutely cannot be found within a reasonable timeframe. I'd hate to No Lynch, then have another modkill take out a townie.

[inHimshallibe]

pj giving a thesis on No Lynch whilst staring down his own noose and not commenting on it does NOT inspire pro-town confidence.

I'll do a bit of pondering today, hopefully have some time to chat back and forth even.

[Thor665]

(This coming from someone who won't read Day 1? ) I meant further back, to at least skim Bulbazak's interactions with everyone. Not just yesterday.

It is also coming from someone who is active in the game and isn't suggesting the game is being difficult to follow.
I'm not reading because I'm lazy - not because the game is so dense.

If you aren't willing to vote PJ is he still your strongest scumspect? This appears to be true but you're not making many declaratives other than 'uncertainty'.

[inHimshallibe]

No lynching's dumb in this instance. With current townreads we're close to POEing this puppy.

[Thor665]

Let's just drop the conversation. PJ has presented his thesis and if people like it they can start voting 'no lynch'.

Currently people are voting PJ, so...

[inHimshallibe]

Yawp.

[Aegor]

@Thesp

: My question was rather why you wanted to lynch RBD over Bulba toward the end of the day. Why not just let the Bulba wagon gain speed?

I will check up on the Kab votes, but I encourage everyone to ISO HS and give me reads or posts that seem town (the discussed townslip does not count).

[kabooooom]

HS had his vote on ABR but not on Bulb. he sheeped bulb in starting your wagon! after ABR died he had his vote on thor and when he failed to start that wagon he turned up to you where bulb was already there. however i dont think if he was actually scum he would sheep bulb when there is already a big wagon on bulb.

[Sotty7]

No lynching's dumb in this instance. With current townreads we're close to POEing this puppy.

This exactly.

I don't really remember a lot about HS, he replaced OGML who I thought was really town on day one cause we basically had the same thought process 90% of the time. Then he suddenly voted me day two in a pretty poor manner before dropping off the face of the planet. That peaked my interest a little, but I would have to pay more attention to HS to figure out if that was just a misstep on OGML's part. He's been somewhat of a null factor for me in all honesty.

[Thor665]

@Sotty - stop being useless Sotty. I've played with dynamic Sotty before, I'd like to play with dynamic Sotty now. Please bring dynamic Sotty out.

[petroleumjelly]

1.)

To continue my "thesis" on No Lynching:

Oh, and;

1) You know what else increases town's chances numerically of lynching scum? No lynching until LYLO - then there is a very high percentage chance of lynching scum.

Whoop-dee-doo.

I have to assume you are being purposefully dense here. If you are not please let me know and I will explain in detail how this is wrong.

how no lynch helps if no one has any town reads?! How can no lynch give any idea of who scum is like lynching does?

No Lynching decreases the odds of

mislynching

. It increases the chances that a suspicious player who

might

have been mislynched at some point of the game is nightkilled instead. That in turn increases the chances of Town winning because if that happens at any point in the game it is as if the Town "gained" a lynch through the scum nightkill.

No lynching's dumb in this instance. With current townreads we're close to POEing this puppy.

If you believe the game can be figured out by process of elimination, then No Lynching poses zero harm to that plan.

The most straightforward example: suppose you are convinced 6 players are Town ("Town pool") and the scum are therefore necessarily within the 4 remaining players ("elimination pool"), which is exactly how many lynches we have. No Lynching can only increase the odds of winning because it increases the odds scum will kill one of the 4 remaining players in the "elimination" pool. If that happens, then there will be 3 players to lynch between 4 lynches. That way, if it turns out the "elimination pool" was faulty in the first place, the Town will still get one last attempt at a lynch between the players who were considered Town (when in actuality one of them was Scum). And of course even if scum manage to only hit the "Town pool" then it will not change the fact that all 4 players int he "elimination pool" will be lynched.

~

I will see if I can put up more content related to

players

tonight as I get back to reading. Dismissing my points because people are voting me is pretty disingenuous. I will deal with my wagon in time, but I am not overly concerned with it right now. In the meantime:

2.)

Thesp, you claim you are tempted to vote for me because emogirl123 has more less had better reads than you over the course of the game. How closely have you paid attention to her reads? Have her reads tempted you into voting any players besides me?

Why are you not willing to rely on your own judgment? This feels highly unnatural for you. emogirl123 was posting by the end of yesterday without confirmation of bulbazak being scum. You now have confirmation that bulbazak was scum and confirmation that emogirl123 was Town, as well as confirmation of your own alignment. By necessity, you should have a clearer view of the game by this point.

3.)

Aegor,

You posted several times before this saying you would vote for a lynch. And yet you refuse to join the Bulba wagon (while joining the less-popular RBD wagon, which very well could have failed) for no good reason? No me gusta...
PJ's voting attitude toward Bulba is very suspect. There is almost no real interaction or opinion from PJ on Bulba, which I find implausible given how much of the day focused on him.

I think you would do well to read my posts again; I was not "ignoring" Bulbazak so much as I was trying to read up on the game. I did not focus my reading on particular players except to look for players who were most likely to be paired with Albert B. Rampage, so I was not going to pay special attention to whoever the leading wagons were; my goal was to find the scum, not give my opinions on whoever happened to be wagoned at the time I joined the game.

Nevertheless I did give my opinion on Bulbazak. I actually head a weak Townread on him for most of my read (because his posts seemed very internally consistent, even if I did not agree with the directions he was going), but the thing that made me most seriously question that read on him was his asserted knowledge about Mountainous games:

6.) bulbazak's early comments about Mountainous (and this set-up in particular) and then later presuming the game had four scum felt very off, and although the subject was explored by somebody (I think Nero Cain logged in under a different account to address it), I will want to return to that at some point. Up until that comment I had actually had a weak Townread on bulbazak.

Nevertheless my highest suspect by the time I finished my reread was RainbowDash, and I felt the wagon on her was more than viable, and so I voted her. And on that subject:

4.)

2.) Thor665, why do you think RainbowDash should not be my top suspect? What about Bulbazak flipping scum makes you think RainbowDash is more likely to be Town

Ooh! Ooh! I know this one! "Because she was counterwagon to scum". Right? =P

I edited my response to this before submitting. Suffice it say you should consider yourself officially guilt-tripped. I will just be blunt.

The term "counterwagon" does not mean much when there are only two scum remaining in the game. Bulbazak was not pushing for a RainbowDash lynch. Therefore the only way RainbowDash could be a scum-coordinated counterwagon would be if the remaining partner was pushing for the RainbowDash lynch. However, it seems just as (if not more) likely that the partner was bussing Bulbazak, or else voting somebody else completely. Your comment here is particularly surprising given that you have already touched on this exact issue earlier:

In a game like this where we've almost certainly got fewer scum around (the total number bandied about has been 3, which seems reasonable to me), and there's not a lot of scum that can push a "counter-wagon" to try to divert a scum lynch.

Your opinion seems to be increasingly changed by popular opinion over your own thought processes. Please go back to being Thesp.

[Thor665]

I will see if I can put up more content related to players tonight as I get back to reading.

This is pretty much the tl:dr of the above.

[petroleumjelly]

Thanks, Thor665. If you are trying to discourage me from playing, you are doing a good job of it.

[Thor665]

Thanks PJ, if you are trying to discourage me from playing, you are doing a good job of it.



I actually read that wall, y'know. I don't think it needed to be a wall. I said as much. Keep reading the game, don't waste time verbally sparring with me.