Open 482: Popcorn Mafia {Game Over}

[ChannelDelibird]

Hi everyone. I haven't played with most of you so I'll be personally pretty reticent about making judgements on "shooting competent players", in the early game at least.

Limo, expand please.

[ChannelDelibird]

OK. What did you make of Mac's reaction?

[ChannelDelibird]

I'm inclined to agree.

[ChannelDelibird]

MOD: Would you be willing to keep a Vote Count anyway, so that we might keep a track of our suspicions?

Juke: Do you mean 'bonus points' as in town points? Because, given that the role PMs are public, there is no information that town can have that makes them more likely to figure out what you're saying than scum.

[ChannelDelibird]

Thanks, mod! Obviously the gunbearer is not obliged to shoot whoever is leading in the vote count but it is pro-town to go on record with suspicions, so we should all make an effort to do so.

VOTE: Mac

What do you think of the first page, Mac?

[ChannelDelibird]

The joke seemed forced in the wording, I thought. Do you think either of Limo & I are scummy? What about things on this page that didn't directly concern you?

[ChannelDelibird]

^ That was to Mac. HadMatter, why me over Limo?

[ChannelDelibird]

Limo's explanation of his scumread didn't seem like a joke. And what's wrong with a bandwagon? What's scummy about pressuring a newer player early on?

[ChannelDelibird]

IMO, they suit town to pressure early just as much as scum. They're often more likely to under less pressure so you get a glimpse at their instincts and true emotions, which is great for establishing early reads.

[ChannelDelibird]

EBWOP: "...more likely to

crack

under..."

[ChannelDelibird]

HadMatter: It doesn't look likely that he'll crack open, no, but that was the case even before I had to say that - it's your theory of why it's scummy to go after new players I'm responding to, and if Mac is a perfectly normal player without serious newb tendencies then I don't know why you're even worried about it.

I quite like Mac's new post but will wait for the "getting back to me on that".

[ChannelDelibird]

I was asking for your opinion on the first page, not mine. If #34 is the sum total of your thoughts from the first page, that's fine, you just implied that you had more.

[ChannelDelibird]

And I've only played with CDB once, when he shot me n1 in my first game.

I don't recognise you - are you on a new account?

[ChannelDelibird]

I think wagoners are more likely scum. Explanation complete.

I don't think getting into a long theory debate about this is likely to be helpful but this is really far too broad to be true.

[ChannelDelibird]

Oh, that would explain that then.

[ChannelDelibird]

So you think a Newbie game day 1 would end in 5 posts with everyone playing towniest? Vote1 through vote5 all on the same person.

Goodness gracious. Of course not. The people on the end of that wagon would be hugely suspect. Quicklynching is usually a terrible idea - but running people up to a few votes early on is not. If a vote always meant "intent to lynch right now" then we'd use them a hell of a lot less than we do. The point is even less relevant in this game, where

no matter how many votes we make, nobody will get lynched

.

Next post will be about trying to find scum rather than arguing theory.

[ChannelDelibird]

UNVOTE: Mac
VOTE: Cherry Nog

I think they're speaking for the sake of it rather than showing any particular desire to find scum.

[ChannelDelibird]

Can we try to improve the signal:noise ratio please?

[ChannelDelibird]

i.e. stop talking at length about the good old days and scumhunt in this game that we're playing right now.

[ChannelDelibird]

and not doing this

VOTE: Jal

[ChannelDelibird]

UNVOTE: Cheery Nog
VOTE: Mac

Retracting nothing on Cheery Nog but read on Mac is stronger; considering how much happened in between 124 and his previous post, there's almost no indication that Mac wants to find out who the scum are. I think he'd be an excellent choice to shoot.

[ChannelDelibird]

It would also be totally fine to shoot Siv if you wanted. But I'd rather start with Mac.

[ChannelDelibird]

CDB: Lean slight scum for 125 - You'd potentially give the gun to someone who isn't scumhunting?

No, I'd shoot someone who's scum. If I thought Mac was town, I wouldn't be recommending shooting him. This is like saying "we shouldn't ever lynch anyone because we might be wrong".

[ChannelDelibird]

No. It's not. It's like saying "we shouldn't lynch someone because they might be a beloved princess." And, to be fair, I probably would lynch him. Just not shoot him.

Sooner or later (hint: sooner) we do actually have to shoot people who look like scum rather than second-guess ourselves into oblivion. I'm not going to advise against shooting people who I think are scum.

[ChannelDelibird]

How close are you to shooting, HD?

[ChannelDelibird]

Oh, OK. That's a totally reasonable stance to take but I must confess I was hoping for a little more seat-of-your-pants approach in a game where you only need one vote rather than six.

[ChannelDelibird]

I believe mcqueen has been sitebanned so may need a replacement? IMO there's nothing to the case on him apart from pushing a clearly stubborn player on something that cannot possibly be an alignment-specific issue.

People I'd be willing to shoot: Mac, Cherry Nog, Siv

Will reread thread a little later to refresh that list.

[ChannelDelibird]

Eh, it's probably in rough order I guess although wasn't deliberately put that way. As I've already explained, it's more for the fact that Mac doesn't seem particularly interested in determining who the scum are. His only scumread is sheeping a terrible but currently popular case on mcqueen. Zero initiative.

[ChannelDelibird]

People I'd be willing to shoot: Mac, Cherry Nog, Siv, Juke

Not getting quite the townvibes off RedPanda that everybody else seems to be but no particular objection at this point.

[ChannelDelibird]

I'd really like HadMatter to shoot someone.

[ChannelDelibird]

Oh, crikey, I can't believe I called you HadMatter. Yes, you. Please. If you wouldn't mind.

[ChannelDelibird]

If Channel is scum, his accidentally thinking I am the innocent is either a point in my favor or some major false buddying to try to reduce the large amount of faith that's been put in me.

You're reading too much into it. Your names start and end with the same letters and share plenty in between.

[ChannelDelibird]

Plus it was like 11PM my time and I've been drinking.

[ChannelDelibird]

Because I'm a professional pedant (no, seriously).

[ChannelDelibird]

Because that was a much more plausible connection to draw, which happens all the time in mafia games. It's wrong, because I'm town, but I wasn't surprised by it. I was surprised by your reading too much into my typo (because of it being a genuine accident from my POV).

[ChannelDelibird]

Holy fucking shit. Er, I'll be rereading tonight in wake of the flips.

[ChannelDelibird]

Apologies. Going to grab some food then catch up on this.

[ChannelDelibird]

AP your case sucks

Phoneposting:

Your attack basically amounts to "He looks like he's trying to look town by saying we need to find town." This doesn't make any sense, but I'll break down the specifics. To justify why the plan is GOOD, it's much easier to find town than it is to find scum, so finding two town to win will be easier than finding the only two scum to win. I also don't have any illusion that I'm some obvious town, as I did shit all until RP shot two scum. Furthermore, that plan actually really sucks if I'm scum because, as soon as my partner gets shot, I've set myself up to lose at LyLo (unless you're suggesting I'm partners with HadMatter, which you obviously aren't).

In regards to your second post, you don't seem to point out shenanigans on anything but my plan. Elaborate?

This post looks a lot like scum trying to define the terms of their own wagon*.

On top of things like the noise-over-signal vote for the mod earlier plus this, as pointed out by AP, which betrays a dissonance in stated values, I'd be tempted by a Juke shot.

*Taking "wagon" in this game to mean general suspicion.

PEDIT: Will respond to your questions next AP then reread the early game for Siv & Mantis buddy clues.

Fixed URL tag ~ Jal

[ChannelDelibird]

Oh balls I PEdited and still got the url tag wrong. Could you fix please,

Mod

?

[ChannelDelibird]

It would also be totally fine to shoot Siv if you wanted. But I'd rather start with Mac.

Did Siv even post before this? Why did you say it?

If I were town in your position I'd have answered the first question myself with thirty seconds of research; as it is I can only see it as leaving it their in case I trip myself up on it with a poor choice of words and line myself up as a mis-shot, which does chime with my initial suspicion that you are bussing Juke.

To answer your second question (and, by extension, the second part of your post), though: This being Siv's only post, my immediate reaction was scum trying to look engaged with the game risk-free. Stating one townread for a "fairly good point" (not elaborating, which is necessary because anyone of any alignment can make a good point) is the easiest possible thing to do without saying literally nothing.

[ChannelDelibird]

CDB looks a little town for being engaged.

Hm, I really suck at reading CDB I guess. His playstyle is just way different than mine.

CDB isn't a very emotional player - everything he does is fairly calculated. I'll read him in ISO specifically since he seems to be a point of interest.

Given that my only post between was a prod acknowledgement literally two minutes before you posted the second (i.e. you were almost certainly already writing it when I posted), why did you suddenly lose confidence in your read?

[ChannelDelibird]

awestfie here, I've discussed shortly with Regfan regarding my reads, and this is currently what I have.

{SNIP} - A bunch of reads, doesn't mention Siv, click link in quote if you want to look at the whole thing

Italics mine.

I would have expected a comment on Siv's extraordinarily brief entrance from Regfan if he were town here.

[ChannelDelibird]

Oh lol you caught me. When I made that post I was like "What can I put in here that wil subtly make CDB say something contradictory and get shot by Cheery?" and then I was like "YES! I'll make a pseudo question out of whether or not something totally provable did or didn't happen! CDB will fuck up FOR SURE!"

I didn't say it made sense, I'm saying I'm having trouble understanding why you wouldn't have done the research as town.

I had that thought immediately after the one where I was like "I should bus the ever-loving fuck out of Klick, because I can!"

I don't know why you're acting like the idea of bussing a scumbuddy who's playing badly would be such a ridiculous scenario.

Why do you have a townread on Bumfuzzle?

I've never declared a townread on Bumfuzzled.

[ChannelDelibird]

Bumfuzzled: Pro-town. I can't tell that much on their actual alignment.
CDB: Lean slight scum for 125 - You'd potentially give the gun to someone who isn't scumhunting?
Cherry nog: Pro-town... same deal as fuzzy.
HadMatter: Lean-town.
Mac: Anti-town. Yup. He's mostly channeling newb.

This is probably evidence in favour of AP being town, I feel.

[ChannelDelibird]

I'm increasingly coming around to the idea that shooting Bumfuzzled would be a pro-town move. There are enough little indications and worries here and there that I'm wondering about them being scum plus, if they're town, it would be beneficial to have that made clear. I honestly can't decide what I make of this interaction between Mantis and Bumfuzzled, which I'm sure should probably be really telling but I don't want to force an opinion.

Think I'd prefer to shoot Juke first as a more solid scumread.

[ChannelDelibird]

In a game stalling hard for activity, I'd absolutely have come into the thread all guns blazing, bussing my struggling partner, if I were in your position. But there's enough to make me think twice for now, that's all.

[ChannelDelibird]

Still here, still caught up, still in favour of a Juke shot and then a Bumfuzzled shot, in that order. Don't really have anything to add.

[ChannelDelibird]

Think I'm still in favour of shooting Bumfuzzled next but do want to reread Limo just in case; feel like I've forgotten a significant reason why he was supposed to be town.

[ChannelDelibird]

I'd be perfectly happy to be shot if that would make you feel better; I'd shoot Bumfuzzled straight away on the understanding that a Limo shot would follow if I were wrong (I don't think I am).

[ChannelDelibird]

Ack. I keep half-expecting someone to have been shot. Apologies, Jal, I'll keep better on top of this.

Juke - as long as RachMarie is town we're all good here. It doesn't especially matter who you shoot first out of me, Bum and Limo. But shoot Bum, yeah?

[ChannelDelibird]

Slip of the tongue (that post was before 7am)! Anyway, I'll go ahead and

Shoot: Bumfuzzled

if Jal's happy with me doing that before the flip.

[ChannelDelibird]

FINE.

Shoot: Bumfuzzled

[ChannelDelibird]

Boom! Well played guys, AP in particular who won me over big-time.