Open 482: Popcorn Mafia {Game Over}

[RedPanda]

Comment on my reads cherry nog.

[HadMatter]

I can't see the confection between 171 and 182 - us it that they're both giving lists?

Channel defends most players biggest scum read. Biggest scum read leaves that player off their scum list. Maybe I'm reading too much into it. What do you think?

[RedPanda]

anyone who wants to lynch mcqueen for his play instead of policy needs a checkup.

That's fact right there.

[ChannelDelibird]

People I'd be willing to shoot: Mac, Cherry Nog, Siv, Juke

Not getting quite the townvibes off RedPanda that everybody else seems to be but no particular objection at this point.

[Cherry Nog]

I can't see the confection between 171 and 182 - us it that they're both giving lists?

Channel defends most players biggest scum read. Biggest scum read leaves that player off their scum list. Maybe I'm reading too much into it. What do you think?

Why does someone need to be highly suspicious of those that defend them?

@RP, besides the fact it includes me I don't have a problem with your possible shooting targets. I do need to talk through this game with N again before I give out my own reads. (or actually devote some time to working it out myself)

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

5. Siveure DtTrikyp !73

Um, 73 is actually cherry's post.

Red, mafia's not a townhunt, it's a scumhunt. The smaller the number of scum, the easier it is.

People I'd shoot? Cdb, then I'd let everyone else sort things out after he turns out to be scum.

Anyway, the big scum thing imo is defending the person who has you as a top scumread.

[HadMatter]

Maybe it was 173 or something. I'll fix that when I can.

[HadMatter]

After checking, I see that that should have been attributed to CN. Not Siv.

A side note:

Spoiler:

The odds of a town win if we shoot completely randomly are 3/7. If you're interested, here's the Python code: (The mod may want to use this to adjust the setup for future games. Note that 8/4 and 6/3 lead to perfect 0.5 chance of town win given random shooting. Though I guess there's good logic behind giving town less than half a chance for shooting randomly with increased odds if you scumhunt well)

Code: Select all

def prob_town_win(num_town,num_scum):
    if num_scum == 0:
        return 1
    elif num_town <= num_scum:
        return 0
    else:
        prob_shoot_scum = num_scum / float(num_town + num_scum - 1)
        return prob_shoot_scum*prob_town_win(num_town,num_scum-1) + (1-prob_shoot_scum)*prob_town_win(num_town-1,num_scum)

print prob_town_win(7,4)

[Bumfuzzled]

Sorry about my lack of activity the last few days, had a really busy weekend. Awestfie isn't online at the moment but I think she will be in the next few hours so hopefully we can carve out a good hour or two and go through everyone one more time. Worst case we'll end up doing it tomorrow (12ish hours).

HD, can you run me through what about Post 34 by Mac you like because that post is probably my biggest issue with him; for the most part he hasn’t really scumhunted and moreso just reacted to peoples reads on him but in that post he was asked what his reads were on CBD and Limo (The people who were pressuring him at the time) and town-read them both which comes very much across as appeasement.

HatMatter thinking it’s 3 scum and not 4 inside Post 185 as well as his anaylsis and thought process being incredibly genuine really solidifies the fact that he’s town. I think everyone can agree that

he’s not for shooting ever.

[RedPanda]

Red, mafia's not a townhunt, it's a scumhunt. The smaller the number of scum, the easier it is.

being someone who's done both, I'm going to say that townhunting is way more effective in catching scum and more accurate. and "the smaller the number of scum, the easier it is" is inaccurate.

[RedPanda]

HD, can you run me through what about Post 34 by Mac you like because that post is probably my biggest issue with him; for the most part he hasn’t really scumhunted and moreso just reacted to peoples reads on him but in that post he was asked what his reads were on CBD and Limo (The people who were pressuring him at the time) and town-read them both which comes very much across as appeasement.

oh RegFan. I didn't want mac getting shot for that exact same post. I'm surprised you don't see it. I've changed my mind, Regfan is no more in the don't shoot list.

[RedPanda]

we need a lot of prods.

Human destroyer stop killing the game.

[Human Destroyer]

HD, can you run me through what about Post 34 by Mac you like because that post is probably my biggest issue with him; for the most part he hasn’t really scumhunted and moreso just reacted to peoples reads on him but in that post he was asked what his reads were on CBD and Limo (The people who were pressuring him at the time) and town-read them both which comes very much across as appeasement.

IDK he looks pretty transparent there FMPOV. Just me?

[HadMatter]

That post seemed genuine. I'll admit that about half the posts I mentioned were gut reads. With Mac and some others there aren't any other reads to use due to lack of content.

[ChannelDelibird]

I'd really like HadMatter to shoot someone.

[Human Destroyer]

I'd really like HadMatter to shoot someone.

I'm assuming you mean me?

I'm probably going to if activity doesn't pick up by tomorrow.

[countdown]0.00[/countdown]

Countdown to when I shoot if discussion doesn't pick up.

[Limo]

^This. Although I'm assuming he means HD. I think a player most everyone agrees on would be Siv.

Preview Edit: What CDB said.

[ChannelDelibird]

Oh, crikey, I can't believe I called you HadMatter. Yes, you. Please. If you wouldn't mind.

[Human Destroyer]

or not

(expired on 2013-03-12 20:00:00)

Let's try that again

[HadMatter]

If Channel is scum, his accidentally thinking I am the innocent is either a point in my favor or some major false buddying to try to reduce the large amount of faith that's been put in me.

@HD
In the end, you really really need to pick your own target. Remember that their a whopping FOUR (not 3 ) players all trying to get you to shoot town. One or more of them may be bussing but the underlying truth is the same. Don't shoot the consensus shot just because it's the consensus.

[Human Destroyer]

Wasn't my plan

[ChannelDelibird]

If Channel is scum, his accidentally thinking I am the innocent is either a point in my favor or some major false buddying to try to reduce the large amount of faith that's been put in me.

You're reading too much into it. Your names start and end with the same letters and share plenty in between.

[ChannelDelibird]

Plus it was like 11PM my time and I've been drinking.

[HadMatter]

If you're scum, that explanation means nothing, and if you're town, why are you still worried about how I interpret something that scum!Channel said?

[ChannelDelibird]

Because I'm a professional pedant (no, seriously).