Open 482: Popcorn Mafia {Game Over}

[Cherry Nog]

Also: other members of town, please do as I'm about to do and PM the mod a conditional target list if you're ever gone when it's your turn to shoot. It'd be dumb to lose to inactivity.

If you're going inactive for 2 weeks, then we'd be better off getting a replacement.

[Cherry Nog]

I personally would shoot either mcqueen (because if I had been scum I would have given the gun to him) or Regfan (because he is good at this stuff and would either find scum if he had the gun or would be a very useful early mafia death). On the other hand, I don't know anything about teh newer players like Juke, Mac or Limo. And I've only played with CDB once, when he shot me n1 in my first game.

[Cherry Nog]

Oh okay, so I have played with Juke then.

[Cherry Nog]

And I've only played with CDB once, when he shot me n1 in my first game.

I don't recognise you - are you on a new account?

I'm N in a hydra with Cheery Dog. (The game I'm talking about with micro 17 or 18 or something.)

[Cherry Nog]

I think wagoners are more likely scum. Explanation complete.

I disagree with this, especially during early game/RVS.

[Cherry Nog]

You disagree that I think that? Or you think the opposite?

I think you know what I mean, although I do see that my response can be confusing if you're being pedantic.

[Cherry Nog]

He voted someone, and he doesn't really seem to have knowledge of the setup. If he were scum, he would definitely have that knowledge.

This is really weak.

[Cherry Nog]

@Bum:

/confirm

Wtf kind of Setup is this.

This is what I was talking about with the lack of knowledge. This was after the game had started, and the Mafia had already chosen who to give a gun to. I don't see mcqueen saying this as scum who had already chosen a target.

@Limo: I have past experience with mcqueen. I kinda doubt he would do that as scum, especially since I don't think he's played in awhile.

Everyone had to confirm by PM before the game started, so him trying to confirm in-thread kinds of points towards that post being fake.

[Cherry Nog]

Cherry Nogs reasoning behind who they'd shoot early-game is actually really sound (Shooting competent players is somewhat optimal in that worst case it's a strong player with a gun) and comes across as a weakish town-tell. Want his reads on things that are unrelated to setup tactics / strategy though.

You're just saying that because I called you a strong player.

[Cherry Nog]

HadMatter is probtown now I understand where his first post #11 came from. (my first thought when I asked about it was him wanting everyone to quickshoot people)

VOTE: mcqueen
Following N's thoughts about this, and #98 doesn't seem like something town would be posting either.

[Cherry Nog]

Dear Inno, one thing I'm thinking is that scum want townies shot. But what scum really want is to have townies shot that are likely to shoot town. So look out for scum voting people who are fosing likely townies. And try to shoot someone who is voting for someone else you'd like to shoot. So if you're wrong it's not a total loss.

That's one way to bring back the suspicion I had on you back up right after I've dropped it, congrats.

VOTE: mcqueen
Following N's thoughts about this, and #98 doesn't seem like something town would be posting either.

why?

Because it is useless fluff about something which I feel HD had already realised. But then again I guess it is mcqueen that posted it.

[Cherry Nog]

HadMatter is probtown now I understand where his first post #11 came from. (my first thought when I asked about it was him wanting everyone to quickshoot people)

VOTE: mcqueen
Following N's thoughts about this, and #98 doesn't seem like something town would be posting either.

I was actually thinking more along the lines of Juke, but that works too.

[Cherry Nog]

Well, I seem to be picking up a bit of heat here for literally nothing, but I digress. How else am I supposed to react when the first post says to shoot me? I haven't been on this site long but I could only assume that, without me having even posted, Limo was kidding.

Mac's not a bad shot either.

[Cherry Nog]

What is your problem with that post CN?

I'm not the same head you're asking, but I'll try to answer. mcqueen's trying to look like he doesn't know what's happening, but he posts things 98 and 113 which show he knows how it works. I know those are after the posts Cheery's pointing to as scummy, but they do add up. Also, why would you try to confirm in thread for a game you've already confirmed for by pm and have received a daystart pm?

[Cherry Nog]

I think you're talking about queen. Not me.

Yeah, I was. I misunderstood your question.

[Cherry Nog]

No. It's not. It's like saying "we shouldn't lynch someone because they might be a beloved princess." And, to be fair, I probably would lynch him. Just not shoot him.

Players will have 48 hours to confirm or they'll be force-replaced. The game will begin once everyone has confirmed

Mcqueen, check your sent messages. You DEFINITELY confirmed by pm.

Continued reads list:

Juke: Sheeping whoever said they're town for stuff.
Limo: Pro-town... I think his experience gives me a town read.

Screwit, I'm not doing the rest tonight.

no i didnt you dumb fucker i dont comfirm via pm and the thread

i told jal i'd probably be a little inactive towards this game, i never remember /confirming, if he took it as a confirm, then thats what he did, but i do not recall /confirming. if i did, then i accidentally thought i didnt, and did inthread, how the fuck are you gonna say im scum for that, lmao

Why are you getting personal about this?

[Cherry Nog]

What is your problem with that post CN?

Same thing that struck me when I first saw your post 11. (see my 101 for what I was feeling before you explained stuff). It's currently a light suspicion.

Unless you're still talking about the mcqueen post, what I found bad about that I believe I said in the post you're referencing here (128 I believe).

That said I remember him being very active early game in Newbie 1256 where he was scum and fooled me big time so actually want some reasoning behind why he hasn't been posting here as well as thoughts on everyone in the room.

Then is excited siv, playing in his first game (also his only game at the time). Also a panicky siv, desperately staving off the lynch. Now? Slightly bored siv.

Anyway, thoughts on

everyone

half the game. I'll get the rest later.

Bumfuzzled: Pro-town. I can't tell that much on their actual alignment.
CDB: Lean slight scum for 125 - You'd potentially give the gun to someone who isn't scumhunting?
Cherry nog: Pro-town... same deal as fuzzy.
HadMatter: Lean-town.
Mac: Anti-town. Yup. He's mostly channeling newb.

Pro-town is twn isn't it? Are you just using fancy words to call people null?

[Cherry Nog]

cheery N - looks a bit hedgy. stuff like 128 "looks scum but maybe not". scum looking for a reason for a vote, and then back up that they could have been wrong if mcqueen flips town?
it looked like Cheery initially made the vote, saying that she(i think?) was going to follow N's thought process. but N later says that he was thinking juke, first. and then the hedge in 128 looks like it's not really a committal vote.

I believe what mcqueen posted to be scum active lurking. N saying Juke just means I hadn't actually diacussed it with him, but I knew he wanted mcqueen at the start of the game, and with posts like mcqueen had, I was willing to go along with it.

But having played with mcqueen before, he has done bad posting as town before, so it's not a definite scumtell, but at present mcqueen has been the scummiest player so far in my opinion.

[Cherry Nog]

I agree with juke about hadmatter.

And redpanda is looking much more town than mcqueen ever could.

UNVOTE:

I can't see the confection between 171 and 182 - us it that they're both giving lists?

[Cherry Nog]

I can't see the confection between 171 and 182 - us it that they're both giving lists?

Channel defends most players biggest scum read. Biggest scum read leaves that player off their scum list. Maybe I'm reading too much into it. What do you think?

Why does someone need to be highly suspicious of those that defend them?

@RP, besides the fact it includes me I don't have a problem with your possible shooting targets. I do need to talk through this game with N again before I give out my own reads. (or actually devote some time to working it out myself)

[Cherry Nog]

Hey guys!
first thing I want to say is that I think we should reduce the deadline a little bit to give the scumbags a chance

I don't follow.

I'm going to read through and put $PN for would not shoot because of post number PN, and !PN for would shoot because of post number PN. Also expect double $$ or !! for supertown or superscum posts. Leaving Human Destroyer and myself off for obvious reasons.

Note: I apparently see way more scummy ! things than townie $ things so maybe have one $ be enough to cancel 3 !s or so. Not that my analysis is anywhere near that precise, but what the hey.

what the hell

4 scum not three.

Was just about to say this.

Also, never shoot HadMatter.

Reading up on this soon, getting into a game I replaced into first.

Juke is definitely scum.

I agree with juke about hadmatter.

And redpanda is looking much more town than mcqueen ever could.

UNVOTE:

I can't see the confection between 171 and 182 - us it that they're both giving lists?

I really don't understand you sometimes.

[Cherry Nog]

If Channel is scum, his accidentally thinking I am the innocent is either a point in my favor or some major false buddying to try to reduce the large amount of faith that's been put in me.

This is really convoluted. Have you and my hydra partner met before? I really hope I never have to witness a full conversation between you.

[Cherry Nog]

Blarg.

[Cherry Nog]

Recap:
Juke and/or Mac should probably be shot asap.
Who the fuck is Limo? I remember nothing they've done.
I'm going to rely on Cheery to read Had's comments because they're just as baffling as his are usually.
I have a feeling I thought Siv was town for something-or-other earlier, so that's good enough. Same with Mantis.
I'm going to say we should leave CDB and Regfan's hydra for now, because they know what's what.
And I guess I'm going to have to read what mcqueen actually did now that I can't just ignore his slot and push it for a policy lynch.

I think I said everyone; main point is
VOTE: Juke

[Cherry Nog]

I'm not going to go on a shooting spree, so you get your reactions now.

looking at ISOs I'm thinking possibly CBD.

(though since I knew I'd be living I had that "night" to read the ISOs)

[Cherry Nog]

Mac and Bumfuzzled are probably town as well, so one of Juke/Limo

[Cherry Nog]

I think CDB and Juke are the most likely buddies

channelbird said earlier that he didn't now many of the players. same thing with me. though, i have played briefly with mcqueen and juke (who i see is klick). oh, and limo.

Juke: Sheeping whoever said they're town for stuff.

And Ragfan, Mac and HM are mor elikely town

jesus bumfuzzled, that's a lot of work...
i do appreciate you taking a look though to try and distinguish.
i'll look back at your reads in a moment.

but question for

mac

- your last post, 124. you asked how you were supposed to react. why get defensive? who do you find scummy for it?

5. Siveure DtTrikyp !73

Um, 73 is actually cherry's post.

[Cherry Nog]

We agree?!

[Cherry Nog]

Also, if Juke is scum, HadMatter is confirmed town. I would have said the same for mcqueen/RedPanda.

[Cherry Nog]

Fuck, I really want to shoot Juke right now.

[Cherry Nog]

Because the shit you say.

[Cherry Nog]

What plan?

[Cherry Nog]

That's a plan?

[Cherry Nog]

Yup. Do you need an explanation?

So your cunning plan is "shoot scum; don't shoot town"? How ingenious!

[Cherry Nog]

That's not really a plan. That's filler.

[Cherry Nog]

N. Why does it matter?

[Cherry Nog]

Because you can understand what I'm saying?

Back to the subject: why aren't you (and CDB) scum?

[Cherry Nog]

Maybe that was a bit leading... what do you think of CDB?

[Cherry Nog]

Also give me your opinion of bumfuzzled while you're at it.

[Cherry Nog]

Cheery/Cherry/whichever is the hydra name, do you think my trust in Bum is misplaced? Do you think that my suspiciousness of Limi is wrong. I'm currently more worried about trusting bum than FoSing limo.

I'm not answering this until I get a response from Juke.

[Cherry Nog]

Waiting for everyone to actually say something before we shoot. I don't know who Cheery thinks we should shoot, but I have a rough idea of who I want to.

[Cherry Nog]

I think it's likely cbd/juke

Will shoot either after she gifts some content or I decide with N to just shoot juke now (he will probably be the shot in any case)

P-edit Let me post and i will

[Cherry Nog]

Cheery/N, I request that you shoot AP. If they're scum, they die, and if they're town, they'll shoot me and die, therefore no longer being a distraction.

Yeah that's not going to happen.
I'll tell you what though, if you happen to be town after we shoot you, you can shoot him all you want.

[Cherry Nog]

Bum's read list did remove some of the possible town I gained from looking at the isos of flipped scum, and that's actually where I got that town read from, but I'll see how other shots go before I possibly shot them (our someone else shots them since if the other shots fail I'm dead)

[Cherry Nog]

Cheery/N, I request that you shoot AP. If they're scum, they die, and if they're town, they'll shoot me and die, therefore no longer being a distraction.

Who do you think his partner is then?

[Cherry Nog]

Cheery/N, I request that you shoot AP. If they're scum, they die, and if they're town, they'll shoot me and die, therefore no longer being a distraction.

Yeah that's not going to happen.
I'll tell you what though, if you happen to be town after we shoot you, you can shoot him all you want.

I dunno, AP's not a bad shot. I actually think he could be scum with Juke. I don't know who CDB could be partnered with, though.

[Cherry Nog]

So my main three suspects at the moment are CDB, Juke and AP.

My experience with CDB is saying that we should keep an eye on him because he had no opinions of his own and was parroting others. He then shot me that night. I know this is from a while ago now, but I remember it well because it was my first game. Several parts of his play in this game do fit in with that, most recently his plan to shoot Regfan, something no one had seriously suggested until AP replaced in.

My argument with Juke a couple of pages ago made me more confident he was scum, because there was absolutely no push-back from him. I was being purposely antagonistic toward him and he just kept meekly trying to change the subject. Personally, if I were in his position, I would have told myself to sit down and shut up. I was doing a similar thing to HM earlier (admittedly, before we were confirmed town), and he shot me down nicely.

AP replaced into an already-suspected slot and immediately pushed for me to shoot Juke, which is something I'd been pretty obvious about wanting to do. The rest of his read, however, do not match up with mine whatsoever. His argument with Juke could very well be distancing.

[Cherry Nog]

So Mac was like my only townread

What had Mac done to make him your only townread?

[Cherry Nog]

I asked Cheery who he would shoot if we had to shoot right now and he said Juke. He then asked me the same question and I said CDB.

[Cherry Nog]

@AP, who would be the remaining scum if we shot bum and he turned scum?

[Cherry Nog]

CDB and bum's posts on this page could be distancing. Right now I'm thinking the remaining team is either Juke/AP or CDB/bum.

[Cherry Nog]

Hey Cheery, do you just wanna shoot Juke? He has no mentions at all of Siv or mantis is his iso. Actually, there aren't many mentions of anyone except hadmatter and mcqueen in his iso, so maybe not...

[Cherry Nog]

I probably could have asked you that privately, but whatever.

[Cherry Nog]

Wait, Limo's still in this game? I thought AP replaced him, not Mac. I don't know anymore!

[Cherry Nog]

Juke/Limo works too, which is why I said Juke/AP so confidently. Juke could be with either of them.

[Cherry Nog]

Hey Cheery, do you just wanna shoot Juke? He has no mentions at all of Siv or mantis is his iso. Actually, there aren't many mentions of anyone except hadmatter and mcqueen in his iso, so maybe not...

I feel like we should shoot someone as we're not getting anywhere.

I'm fine with anyone except HadMatter and AP at this stage.

Mac just looks too much like an easy target from the two flipped scum and everyone else to actually be scum.

[Cherry Nog]

Hey Cheery, do you just wanna shoot Juke? He has no mentions at all of Siv or mantis is his iso. Actually, there aren't many mentions of anyone except hadmatter and mcqueen in his iso, so maybe not...

I feel like we should shoot someone as we're not getting anywhere.

I'm fine with anyone except HadMatter and AP at this stage.

Mac just looks too much like an easy target from the two flipped scum and everyone else to actually be scum.

Yeah sorry, I confused myself with the AP thing. I got Mac and Limo confused because neither of them have done anything.

[Cherry Nog]

Wow. Looking at Limo's iso, there's a lot of buddying of bum and CDB in there.

[Cherry Nog]

I'm happy to shoot Juke. Should we just do it or wait for more talking from others?

[Cherry Nog]

Like, find out who Juke would shoot if he's town?

[Cherry Nog]

Sorry for cluttering up the thread talking to myself, everybody. Most of those posts were mine; Cheery's busy doing other stuff.

[Cherry Nog]

Limo can't be scum with both of them, if either

He did join attacks on both flipped scum if that means anything.

I think he's actually the only player to have not gone through the ISOs of the flipped scum?

[Cherry Nog]

Limo can't be scum with both of them, if either

He did join attacks on both flipped scum if that means anything.

I think he's actually the only player to have not gone through the ISOs of the flipped scum?

What?

[Cherry Nog]

I don't think Limo is that likely partners to CBD/bumfluff

[Cherry Nog]

wait bumfluff didn't give out new reads from isos either, i don't know what that means.

[Cherry Nog]

I don't think Limo is that likely partners to CBD/bumfluff

I know that. Those are the two most experienced players, and Limo was buddying them early on.

[Cherry Nog]

wait bumfluff didn't give out new reads from isos either, i don't know what that means.

It doesn't mean anything. I don't understand how it should?

[Cherry Nog]

Even though I'm not actually talking to myself, I feel like I'm Tazaro playing chess with njoseph.

[Cherry Nog]

@Mod

can you (re?)prod HadMatter please?

I want to know his opinion of the Juke/AP debate.

[Cherry Nog]

wait bumfluff didn't give out new reads from isos either, i don't know what that means.

It doesn't mean anything. I don't understand how it should?

A lack of trying to actually find scum, could be indicative of someone who already knows the scumteam.

[Cherry Nog]

So we're waiting then? Juke, if we were to shoot town-you, who would you shoot? Limo, same question for you.

[Cherry Nog]

wait bumfluff didn't give out new reads from isos either, i don't know what that means.

It doesn't mean anything. I don't understand how it should?

A lack of trying to actually find scum, could be indicative of someone who already knows the scumteam.

And you think you'd be able to catch Regfan out with that?

[Cherry Nog]

That's why I'm not entirely sure what to make of it, I don't think I've actually played with Regfan before anyway, so I don't know if he can be caught in that fashion or not.

So we're waiting then? Juke, if we were to shoot town-you, who would you shoot? Limo, same question for you.

Yeah I think we'd be better to wait for more input HadMatter, I hadn't realized he hadn't posted in such a long time, probably why the thread felt empty.

[Cherry Nog]

but it mostly means I can't really use it against Limo.

[Cherry Nog]

Prodding HadMatter.

Juke too please.

[Cherry Nog]

Hi Limo

So we're waiting then? Juke, if we were to shoot town-you, who would you shoot? Limo, same question for you.

Juke is getting force replaced due to receiving his fourth prod.

I feel guilty now.

I do too. - Jal

[Cherry Nog]

Oh, I misread what you were saying.

[Cherry Nog]

Cheery, if you want: just do it.

[Cherry Nog]

Limo, if you're still here, tell me quickly what you think of Juke/Juke's slot.

[Cherry Nog]

No, I want an answer off the top of your head.

[Cherry Nog]

Is Duck Duck Goose your only completed game?

[Cherry Nog]

dammit nothing's still happening.

Going for it.

Shoot Juke

[Cherry Nog]

dammit that confirmation of scum doesn't help me, Juke hardly interacted with anybody.

But I think those he did interact with and call town he was looking for them to call him town in return and are probably actually townies. (Limo and HadMatter, with the read and retraction on Limo both fairly early on)

I think I'll look at RedPanda's next on the line list seeing as he had 3 of the scum down, so either CBD or Bum. it would possibly be now, but I don't know which one to shoot and it'll probably be the opposite one to N.

[Cherry Nog]

Still Alive
Bumfuzzled
AngryPidgeon
ChannelDelibird
Limo
RachMarie

Flipped Mafia
Siveure DtTrikyp
Mantisdreamz
Juke

I can see Juke suggesting who to give the gun to and Siv and Mantis not really caring.
Limo, Mac, Awest and HadMatter wouldn't have known anybody so wouldn't have an opinion.
Regfan would definitely have a suggestion, and it would be a well thought-out one, too. In Sixty's everyone-has-a-gun game, he chose newbies to be on his scumteam because he knew they wouldn't be shot early and could slip under the radar.
I'm not so sure on CDB, though. He's been inactive through a lot of this game, so he may not have even made it to the pregame scum chat to be able to make a suggestion, and I'm not so sure he would if he had.

To be honest, I wouldn't have chosen HD, and I don't think Regfan would have either. HD is pretty stubborn and would be hard for scum to manipulate. I would have chosen either mcqueen or a newbie. Or, to go the opposite way, a stronger, established player and hope they make the wrong decision and get them out of the way early on.

So, I don't really think bum is the most likely scum. This is the closest we can get to night kill analysis and it points towards Juke being the most vocal in the pregame scum qt. Juke pointed to Limo replacing in right before the game started as proof Limo didn't help plan who got the gun to begin with, but I don't think that means much, as they'd probably already submitted that HD would have the gun.

[Cherry Nog]

I can wall sometimes

[Cherry Nog]

Rach, what's your read on HM?

[Cherry Nog]

Was my post really that rambly that you thought I was Cheery?

I already said I'd probably give it to mcqueen.

[Cherry Nog]

Or was that a general "you" to everyone?

[Cherry Nog]

Scum obviously wasn't thinking about giving the gun to a strong player, because neither bum nor CDB have it and they can't both be scum.

[Cherry Nog]

ummm N did you REALLY just ask me about my predecessor?? lol.

Damn, you noticed.

[Cherry Nog]

In actually important news: Cheery and I disagree on who else to shoot. He says CDB or bum and I say Limo or AP. He's pretty confident about AP, and seeing as he's played with him before I guess I'll trust that. AP, would you say that Cheery can read you well?

[Cherry Nog]

Does the fact that Juke was Klick change your mind on that? Klick's not exactly the most conventional of players.

[Cherry Nog]

Where is Limo gone?

[Cherry Nog]

So, why would AP bus into an auto-lose situation like that, if he were to be scum?

Does this mean we should also right of CBD due to Juke being his preferred target?

Looking at the other reads of Juke before we shot him, you Limo and HM were the ones who weren't in support. If HM hadn't disappeared from the enitire site, I'd consider AP's attack on Juke to mean something.

[Cherry Nog]

Does this mean we should also right of CBD due to Juke being his preferred target?

What does this mean?

[Cherry Nog]

It may just be my paranoia kicking in since it generally does when someone is being confirmed town, but scum do have day talk this game according to the sample role pms, it could have been a setup.

(I'd better leave the shooting to N, this paranoia means I'm now going to be useless)

P_edit; {*write} CBD was saying the best shot was Juke. If we're assuming scum don't want to bus at this stage, then CBD is probably town for the push there.

[Cherry Nog]

You're still being incomprehensible.

[Cherry Nog]

I'm seeing if the logic Bum is using for AP also carries out for CDB.

If you're still confused then come bug me out of the thread.

[Cherry Nog]

See! Bum didn't understand what you were saying either!

[Cherry Nog]

Although that post is remarkably similar to Juke's "plan".

[Cherry Nog]

I don't think it's something scum would do in this situation, unless they really want to risk it and try to gambit - it's possible that AP bussed in this situation to get town cred, but even if he did - all we need to do is agree on a town-read, and then you can go ahead and shoot. I honestly won't be putting all that much thought into this game since it's pretty much auto-win for us, so.

A win where we just shoot scum now is more fun/worth celebrating over one where we just get it because it's a given.

[Cherry Nog]

I honestly feel like one of you is over-thinking the situation, if not both.

This is the sort of thing I expect from town being pushed for bogus reasons. When I did the same to Juke earlier, I got none of this.

Cheery, I wanna shoot Limo.

[Cherry Nog]

But first I want Limo to actually post today.

[Cherry Nog]

That would be me that's overthinking, it's something I do whatever the situation, and being told I'm doing it probably won't change anything.

It's also why I'm saying N should be doing our final shot.

Do it, I'm not going to be able help now, my paranoia activated last page on the Rach slot.

[Cherry Nog]

You are so embarrassing.

[Cherry Nog]

So I'm garnering suspicion for not posting?

Do you think that's the only reason people are suspicious of you?

[Cherry Nog]

So what other reasons do people have for suspecting you?

[Cherry Nog]

Hmm.

[Cherry Nog]

Shoot: CDB