Two-Headed Mafia 2 - GAME OVER!

[MrBuddyLee]

Hi everybody, and good morning to my alter-PJ-head! Hi-dilly-ho, neighbor!

vote H2 da Tizzle/Themanhimself.

They're being far too quiet for my liking. PJ, if you must change our vote, please be sure it matches the curtains in the family room.

[MrBuddyLee]

Seriously, what do we get from things like this...

Our vote looks fine to me, I got a good feeling it landed on scum; you have impeccable judgment, as usual. Just make sure you don't go staining the carpet, all we have around the house is Febreze.

Day Ones make mafia boring

FOS: amb/Hy

for inconsistency. You lament that games are dull, immediately after criticizing an attempt by my alter-head to spruce up the game in his first post. It's silly to expect scumhunting content in a first post that follows a set of random votes--so you should expect blather, and with any luck it'll be mildly entertaining.

In fact, I imagine you'll soon lament your request for more content from Mr. Jelly.

[MrBuddyLee]

"These are not the scumheads you're looking for," intones Pooky.

*waves hand yet again*

[MrBuddyLee]

unvote, vote: ChannelDB/ziliu

for being in a hurry.

Stated otherwise, it's page six and your other head's only posted his random vote. Why should you expect better from others?

[MrBuddyLee]

If there's no attempt at logic involved, it's not craplogic.

If you were really town you'd use this opportunity to sucker some scum onto your worthless wagon and nail them, not whine about it and get defensive.

[MrBuddyLee]

I honestly have a really scummy feeling about mini neo sprontalic. I'd like to hear more from them.

I wanted to attack tsq for such a bold statement this soon, but then I reread MN/spront's posts, and the guy's got a point. Either they've got a case of stage fright or else they're way too defensive for this early stage of the game.

[MrBuddyLee]

Pretty sure page nine is past gratuitous huggle phase.

[MrBuddyLee]

unvote, vote: Glork

I don't know about you, partner, but when I see Glork's vote sitting somewhere useless for an extend period of time I tend to think he's either a) hung over or b) lazy scum. He's been voting for us for ages, which I don't particularly mind, but the vote's not doing ANY work.

I like the Latvian and his partner. "You know i look tasty at this moment, attack me while you have a chance people! If you get me lynched you will get cookie." is priceless. I disagree with the people who say Eon doesn't post content--he explains why he thinks the votes on him are crappy or inconsequential. That's a lot more than other people do, and not terrible for a newbie at all.

[MrBuddyLee]

So you disagree with your partner PJ's assessment of Eon/re2fan?

We had the fibrous nerve strand that connected our brains removed during adolescence... it got in the way of wearing hats.

[MrBuddyLee]

MoS and I talked about stuff and decided that we liked the Eon vote. MoS moved it. I didn't. So now I'm a lazy scumbag because you're not paying attention?


:goodposting:, MBL. Way to keep your head on a swivel.

*cries* I'm so used to easy mode:

1) Find all posts by Glork
2) Throw a dart
3) It hits something scummy
4) Quote it with pithy comment
5) Vote Glork

but now I have to scan MoS's posts too? this game blows.

[MrBuddyLee]

It begins here:

blah blah blah

Then we get this sort of thing:

blah blah blah

Then I see this (and my internet dies...it's a sign!)

blah blah blah

Pretty sure you've pegged the axis of evil there. Wait, are our fellow heads guaranteed to be pro-town?

But seriously, ibby and MoS remind me of hyenas working to weed out the weak lion.

[MrBuddyLee]

Odd point of view, I might add. It seems to me that Ibbycakes and MoS are the only two who have presented actual arguments against Eon.

Don't confuse things with your... facts. I know a hyperaggressive push when I see one.

[MrBuddyLee]

I am distrustful of Eon and friend.

[MrBuddyLee]

I just did a full reread. I'm very comfortable with an Eon/fan vote, because I feel a lack of gravity towards finding scum in their posts. Eon's been dancing around all game and not finding anyone super scummy. I was just scum with him in another game, and the pattern looks very familiar.

I also suspect DGB. She's normally much more randomly accusatory, and seems to be lying lower than usual this game.

I find Glork's last month and a half of posts more pro-town than I have in other games. His play resembles his play from a newbie game we recently played together, in which he was pro-town.

Other head, let's not stay off Eon/fan too long, k?

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm here.

[MrBuddyLee]

vote: Bogre/TMH

There's no way those guys are town. They're making no effort whatsoever to track down scum.

[MrBuddyLee]

hmm, that looks like a confident vote klebian. Care to elaborate?

[MrBuddyLee]

Before the post quoted below, amb expressed no suspicions whatsoever.

Vote ChannelDelibird/Ziliy

They havent contributed anyhting this game. THe occasional post but otherwise both staying below the radar just a little too much.

Since the post quoted above, amb has expressed no suspicions whatsoever.

So yeah, I imagine there's a 95% chance he and his partner-head are scum. You'd think someone as seemingly intelligent as him who wants to hold others to higher standards would himself be able to point to a few scum and why he believes they are so.

Other head, what say you?

[MrBuddyLee]

Well, Pooky isn't trying very hard, and Adele's trying to appear like she's trying hard. Someone else who usually tries hard is not trying at all and that tells me to

FOS: Zindaras

.

[MrBuddyLee]

I used to think indifference was a sign of scumminess, but with so many indifferent people on this site lately, it's impossible to pick out lazy scum amidst all the lazy town.

I for one commit to a complete reanalysis of this game, but only if the lazy town post and commit to the same.

[MrBuddyLee]

Adele and Pooky, quite possibly scum, TSQ... yeah.

[MrBuddyLee]

lol I woke up too late to get a McMuffin but it's ok, this is better.

[MrBuddyLee]

Glork's plan sucks... he's probably the SK trying to stay alive one more day so he can reach a deal with scum to split a win or something.

[MrBuddyLee]

My reread pretty much turned up exactly what amb's did, minus the spot of CES fosing his partner ("a joke"). amb is clearly trying to find scum harder than any other team. Which is great, except I think it means he's scum trying to escape a tricky situation with a win.

I don't have enough to work with on Nightson/TSS, CDB/Zindy, CES/MGM, Lowell/spront. Any of those teams could EASILY be scum. spront and mgm seemed modestly pro-town, but their posts have dropped off and I don't think a firm conclusion can be reached. If these people don't start posting, my brain will burst a blood vessel like it did in Jack of all Trades. Please don't let that happen.

Glork/MoS is covered. I don't think they're lying about their kills, but I wonder if they're lying about their role. I can't see GlorkOs killing Fritz twice or ibaesha, and it's unfair to amb not to be privvy to that because he's from another site but I think he should be filled in with that info. It's interesting to note that the scum groups don't appear to be gunning for scum at night. But at this point I think the scumteam that hits the other first will probably win the game, thus Glork's willingness to help find scum if he's not an SK. And the way WE win is by helping them find each other and facilitating those crosskills.

amb has played the prototypical scum game to this point, which has had me wondering if he's scum. In a hurry to end days and not too concerned about getting lynches right. Criticizing people for not posting analyses while being thin with his. But now that it's on the line he's hunting scum. Which is good in a way--it's the same as what Nightson and I are doing, but in this case my gut tells me amb is scum. He's dropped a hint of game knowledge, implying non-vanilla, I believe.

Here's the clincher on amb:

in my mind have picked out one very likely to be scum (CES), and one certainty (Glork). The horrid or perhaps not so horrid thing is that the certainty is fingering the one the I think is likely - and that does bother me.

It's entirely normal for two different scumteams to finger each other. The fact that amb has a problem with Glork's finger of CES means to me that

amb knows Glork and CES are not on opposite teams

. Which would mean that amb has inside knowledge of one scumteam.

klebian/sv could be a cult leader. If they tried to recruit scum and failed, they'd know alignment. I agree with amb that I don't see three cops as likely. The only way I see Glork killing last night is if he's the SK, because if he's on a scumteam the fact that he was under suspicion yesterday would have made him pass the gun to a teammate. Unless he's a retarded cocky bastard. Hmm. So sv/kleb probably didnt get a guilty by tracking or copping Glork, thus my suspicion they may be cult. The argument against this is that if they wanted to recruit town last night, GlorkOs was a risky choice imo.

Would the game be balanced with a cult leader, a Glork+pooky+X scumteam , an amb SK, and 5-6 power roles? I think so, but it'd be utter chaos, which is kind of what this game's been.

Town is safe as long as scum is trying to kill each other off. It definitely looks like that's what amb and Glork/MoS have shifted gears to. Let's help them succeed.

Nightson, your post was thoughtful, and though my gut tells me we should lynch 100% known scum today, it's worth analyzing whether taking a chance at cutting down nightkills to one would help town or expose us to more danger.

If someone hammers, and I'm not alive tomorrow, please get the lurkers out from under rocks and see if they're more suspicious than CES/amb. If kleb/sv are alive, grill them. Town can still win this but can't make many more mistakes.

[MrBuddyLee]

hmm just reread MGM's posts. Everything put together implies that sv/kleb are cult and we still have a chance to beat them, but everyone will have to be smart to do it. They'd be a two person cult if that theory is correct, so we're not nearly screwed, things are just very complicated. We might not have an SK either.

Other head and I are on the job. My biggest problem with all this is that klebian drew attention to himself by pointing out scum, which could mean he's a cult lackey. I will tell you one thing quite honestly, PJ's blood pressure went up 75 points when I made the case for a cult, and if you recruit him, he'll either crap his pants and quit the game or take the cult down from within. Actually, since cult leader hasn't recruited us yet, they may be aware of that meta-game fact already.

Cult is looking damned likely--we'll probably know once sv/kleb dance around this claim they've spent the last few days arranging via PM. Keep in mind cult would have to get scum lynched to win and scum has to NK/lynch cult to win.

[MrBuddyLee]

I'll check in with my other head first, just want to discuss something.

Have you two finished discussing what penitentiary you'd like to chill in for the next 25 years? If not, I hear Sing Sing's lovely this time of year.

[MrBuddyLee]

If I was the least bit unsure about kleb/sv before this recent activity, the gunsmith claim removed just about the last speck of doubt.

The only question is what to do now. I think some number crunching is in order, and everyone should participate. The fundamental question is: does it make any sense to lynch cult right now instead of GlorkOs? My guess is no.

[MrBuddyLee]

Two cops and a gunsmith in this game. Out of 17 players. Excessive. It just doesn't fit.

I don't need to look at Courk's mod history to know something's not right with that claim. It doesn't fit in several ways:

1) It's excessively duplicative and overpowered in a medium-sized game.
2) It's an off role in a game with standard roles.
3) The claim took forever for its claimants to generate, and they felt pressured to make it without many people clamoring for the claim.
4) The guilty results on scum were announced with a confidence too careless or reckless for a gunsmith to have made.

This is the reasonin from my claim of pooky/adele as scum yesterday, I really didn't consider a vig (what's a forced-vig, exactly? He HAS to kill every night? And how would his choice work if he forgot to send in a choice?) as I didn't think that a reasonable vigilante wouldn't think through his kills enough to kill the cops both nights..

So you were a gunsmith and not a cop but in the process of discussing what a gunsmith is, you didn't even consider that it's most often accompanied by a vig in the game?

You assumed a game with an SK and four scum (3 is too weak with no cult), two NKs a night, and you didn't even consider for a moment that there would be a vig there to counter that killing power? If Pooky was a vig you'd have outed him with your play.

I'm not buying it.

To me, I feel as though the whole cult thing is springing up from Glork's scum buddies (or being pushed along that line) to create confusion.

Hardly. I believe I was the first head to post the possibility of a cult, and I considered it because I agreed with your comment that three cops didn't make sense and thus the "results" demanded another explanation. The scum are the people who'd prefer to rush the day through without getting everyone on the record or fully exploring possibilities.

I see MGM is being credited by MrBuddyLee for MBL's theory that SV/Kleb are cult

No, my MGM comment was in reference to something else.

[MrBuddyLee]

MBL

, what's your general opinion of Cults?

I don't like em, but as I proved in WoT, if I get recruited, I play along to help my team win. I'm 95% sure I could have persuaded PJ to play along if we'd been recruited, but thankfully we weren't and the cult leader's dead. I imagine PJ's threat helped yesterday lol.

I'm reading carefully to see who's expressing phony curiosity about the cult--they're the remaining cultist(s). I also think scum is going to be the one(s) trying a little too hard to find cult instead of scum at this point. Which would be PJ , so I'm gonna have to go with 2nd place, and there are a few leads to look at there.

[MrBuddyLee]

What is mostly making me wonder is the fact that this Cult seems to have a 100% success chance on townies, which is very much broken, in my ever-so-humble opinion.

Busted.

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm going to go so far as to call this game right now, with 80% confidence:

CES: cult, recruited night one
Zindy: cult, recruited last night
nightson: scum
amb/pj/lowell: two townies and one vig/sk

Now we can discuss how to proceed.

[MrBuddyLee]

I wouldn't be so quick to assume that, and I wouldn't advocate a massclaim at this point. Let me talk to my other head, I think he's advocating the idea of a massclaim at present.

[MrBuddyLee]

(That was in response to Lowell, not Amb.)

[MrBuddyLee]

I owe the recent posts a more thorough read, but I see CES as the most manipulative as I skim. Gut.

[MrBuddyLee]

I think there's a 2-person cult remaining, one scum and a vig. The kills look more pro-town to me than I'd expect from an SK. I think a setup of 3 scum and a cult would be rough enough for us without throwing an SK into the mix, so that's my speculation as to the setup.

If CES was Vig he'd have claimed by now. He's not.

If we lynch CES right now that leaves {town town vig scum cult} or {town town vig cult cult}. Scum kills, vig shoots for scum, leaving 3 tomorrow.

If it's town vig scum we can win.
If it's town scum cult I think we lose no matter what.

So basically the two ways we lose are:
1) We lynch a townie today. That would make it >75% likely that we're in a no-win situation tomorrow.
2) The vig vigs town tonight. I believe that's a guaranteed loss for us.

CES oozes scum--I don't think we'll lose by lynching him. I'd advise the vig to take out Nightson, but I also think Zindaras has shown signs of being scum as well. I don't see any point in dithering over whether the vig is an SK or not, because if he's an SK then I believe we've lost for certain at this point.

It's helpful at this point to think like a cultist or scum. Right now if there are two cultists, they're either piling on an easy lynch of a non-cultist for a near-guaranteed win or they're distancing in an effort to keep one alive. As I've mentioned before and is probably obvious, scum is most likely to be the guy obsessing over cult. I don't think scum would dither aimlessly about the cult at this point, I think they'd be focused like a laser, which is why I don't think Zindy/Skruffs or Lowell are mafia scum.

It's really all up to the vig at this point is what it boils down to.

[MrBuddyLee]

edit: i typed that up before reading Amb's claim, reading what I missed...

[MrBuddyLee]

Well, unless one of you is town, we've lost. That's unlikely, as a two person scumteam would have been underpowered in this game. The only other possibility I see is that no cult was successfully recruited ever and we have two town remaining and one scum.

Lowell/spront started the game Minineo/spront. I don't know either of them well, but I don't see them as a high profile choice for cult the first night. That would mean that if there's a cultist, Lowell's more likely a final scum and CES is cult. And if there's one scum one cult, which I agree is most likely, I don't know which side I'd rather hand victory to.

I think the logical thing to do is assume we have a chance to win. Lowell and CES, please make your cases. In the meantime, I'm going to reread your play and talk with my partner.

[MrBuddyLee]

CES, what makes you think Lowell/spront are cult and PJ and I are scum? If I were in your shoes I think I'd suspect the other way around, and therefore I'm pretty much positive you're bullshitting.

[MrBuddyLee]

Then why not vote? Because you're being manipulative.

vote: CES

[MrBuddyLee]

Sigh. I can't believe my partner just claimed un-town.

Lowell, CES is clearly lying:

You're a lying scumbag, specifically a lying mafiate.

For him to say this with confidence he'd have to know we're scum and you're cult. But see, we're not. We're cult and you're apparently town.

So you're stuck in the middle and I'm sorry you have to decide between the lesser of two evils. For what it's worth, cult nailed two scumbaggos in a row (Pooky, Glork). We even made it perfectly clear to town that there was a cult, due to our general displeasure with cults. CES just kind of sat around and ate cake. And if he's gonna try to convince you there were only two scum in a game with a cult, he's high as a kite.

However it turns out, it was a fun game. Thanks Courk.

[MrBuddyLee]

MBL is lazy. He never talked to me unless he had to.

Funny, I thought we talked a lot and played a very solid game together. I suppose the multitude of "I"s and the distinct lack of "we"s in your last post implies you feel otherwise.

[MrBuddyLee]

Who did you try to recruit?

[MrBuddyLee]

My partner played a great game, with two exceptions. I think claiming scum is something that should just about NEVER be done, and I think there was enough reasonable doubt about 1-1-1 vs 2-1-0 remaining that we were better off claiming town to the end. I also think he made one post the previous day where he indicated he and I were talking EXTENSIVELY, and I think some people picked up on that.

But the key to appearing town is to make entirely pro-town actions, and PJ's earnestness in uncovering the cult was undeniable. In the end, I think we were clearly the towniest player left, and had the moral high ground to claim that to the end.