Two-Headed Mafia 2 - GAME OVER!

[Thok Thok]

Back by popular demand:

Final Vote Count

Skruffs/Zindaras (4) (CES/OTU, PJ/MBL, Amb/Frustian, TSS/Nightson)

CES/OTU (1)(Skruffs/Zindaras)

Not voting (Lowell/sprontalic)

Skruffs/ZIndaras have been lynched. I'll bug CourkCourk.

[Nightson]

Since Nightson hasnt claimed as I requested, I will kill him tonight since I genuinely think him to be mafia.

Why should we claim? There are more scum that helps than town.
Also, don't kill me. I'm pro-town, so you'll lose if you do. Why not kill CES? It seems to be pretty much consensus that he's scum, either the other cult or a killer.

I do not believe amb's claim; instead I think he is mafia. Petroleumjelly's response to it (especially the apology bit) suggests tat they may be scum together.

Unvote: CES, vote: Zindaras, mod: votecount?

because that looks to be a better bet for today.

*blinks*

1. When the

claimed vig

asks youto claim and says he's planning on killing you, you claim. Especially if him vigging us will lose it for the town. The point of us not claiming was to not help tell the mafia who the vig/sk was. Since amb has claimed that's pointless now and there's much more benefit to be gained from claiming.

For the record, we're townie, plain vanilla.

2. Don't hammer someone when the claimed vig has said he's going to kill you and such an action can lose it for the town. And don't hammer when there's still plenty of discussion to be had. Although Zindie is a good lynch.

I would however agree with vigging CES instead of me/TSS if ambic is really a vig (I can still see ambic as the sk in which case trying to convince him is pointless)

[Thok]

Please stop posting when the final vote count is up.

[Zindaras]

...

Gogogadgetspeedlynch, eh?

Stupid.

Real, real stupid.

[Skruffs]

What happened O.O
Oh well, if the vig is really a vig and not an SK, then, make your decision carefully tonight.

GO TOWN WOOOO

[Courk]

After a fresh coat of varnish on the Lynchomatic 2000 (it's been getting a lot of use lately and was looking a bit shabby), Skruffs/Zindaras are lynched.

The town anxiously awaits the results of the lynch.

"It seems liek it's been forever, "observes one townsmember.

"Seems more like 19 hours to me," replied another.

Then, the lynchomatic 200 reveals that Skruffs/Zindaras were a townie.

'Tis night, so hush everyone.

Choices are due Friday, February 2 at 5 pm EST.

[Courk]

As the double sun rises on Two-Headed Groundhog's Day, Twoopolis's own two-headed groundhog Tom/Tim emerges from his burrow. Tom sees his shadow, but Tim doesn't. No one knows what that means for winter, but the discussion/argument about it ends a few hours later when someone

finally

realizes that Amb/Frustian and TSS/Nightson are missing.

Shortly thereafter, Amb/Frustian is found dead in an alley with several bullet wounds and TSS/Nightson is found dead in their house with a lone bullet wound.


TSS/Nightson was a townie.
Amb/Frustian was a vigilante.

3 alive, 2 to lynch!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Okay, the most probable situation right now is 1 cult, 1 mafia, 1 townie, in which case the town(aka me) loses. As such, I will assume we only have 1 mafia left.

FoS: petroleumjelly/MrBuddyLee

, I think you're the scumbag, but I feel obligated to re-read on Lowell/spront before voting.

[petroleumjelly]

Oh, god. I have a really bad feeling MBL and I have already lost here. Most likely scenario is that one of you is Cult, and the other of you is Mafia. What a sucky way to lose.

This game deserves a reread. I still feel like CES has the greatest chance of being the last mafiate (as explained yesterday), but this is certainly not the time for hasty votes. I will be presenting cases for each of you to respond to so that I can hopefully try to make the best possible choice.

If either of you would like to claim Cult or Mafia, feel free to do so, and I will vote on the basis of which of the two of you I feel has

earned

a win more. I might let MBL do that, in fact, since I know I am biased against Cults, but I will try to vote objectively on which of the two of you has played the best game from your given positions.

[MrBuddyLee]

Well, unless one of you is town, we've lost. That's unlikely, as a two person scumteam would have been underpowered in this game. The only other possibility I see is that no cult was successfully recruited ever and we have two town remaining and one scum.

Lowell/spront started the game Minineo/spront. I don't know either of them well, but I don't see them as a high profile choice for cult the first night. That would mean that if there's a cultist, Lowell's more likely a final scum and CES is cult. And if there's one scum one cult, which I agree is most likely, I don't know which side I'd rather hand victory to.

I think the logical thing to do is assume we have a chance to win. Lowell and CES, please make your cases. In the meantime, I'm going to reread your play and talk with my partner.

[MrBuddyLee]

CES, what makes you think Lowell/spront are cult and PJ and I are scum? If I were in your shoes I think I'd suspect the other way around, and therefore I'm pretty much positive you're bullshitting.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

CES, what makes you think Lowell/spront are cult and PJ and I are scum? If I were in your shoes I think I'd suspect the other way around, and therefore I'm pretty much positive you're bullshitting.

I don't. I'm working off the assumption that we don't have a cultist, because else the town's already lost anyhow. I recognize it's unlikely, but the possibility is there. And I think you're the final mafiate.

[petroleumjelly]

Okay, time for some comparitive analysis. I'll separate this into two posts. MBL, feel free to add anything you want next time you log on if you feel I missed something.

1.) {Lowell, Sprontalic, MiniNeo}

->

A.)

Lowell:

Bad: Lowell has been actively lurking for much of the game (and has shown little to no shame in doing so). He did not vote for either Pooky/Adele nor Glork/MoS. He acted "surprised" when called scum by Glork/MoS (either feigned or he was not paying attention to the game, both scenarios which are unpleasant).

Good: However, to combat the 'not voting for mafia' point, Lowell has also not really voted anybody in general for the past few days: so it is not simply the mafia, but everybody else. Furthermore, Lowell passed up the chance to hammer CES yesterday, as well as a chance to be on the Zindaras-wagon yesterday. Hard to see a scum doing that so close to endgame. The lack of knowledge about how a Cult works I can see as a possible non-Cult tell (although I haven't truly decided on that one). Despite not paying attention, Lowell had a non-scum response to MoS when called scum (his first thought was "insane" or that MoS was "joking", instead of implicating himself like Glork did).

->

B.

Sprontalic

Bad: Also did not vote for either Pooky/Adele nor Glork/MoS (however this is likely due to the fact that he stopped posting on Dec. 12). The line "craplogic is better than no logic" pinged my scumdar slightly, but nothing big. [Small note: There is a section where Sprontalic unvotes spectrumvoid because "he doesn't remember why he was voting her", which is a

slight

Cult-tell. Even if this is true, that would still necessarily make CES the mafiate].

Good: Very active early in the game (shows interest). He consistently uses his own reasoning by which to vote people (instead of simply barning other people's reasoning or voting without a reason at all). He had many of the same vibes as I did (such as on H2/TMH and Eon/Re2) which tells me he probably was not fabricating suspicions (townie tell). Poked other players (by asking for prods) to keep the game moving.

->

C.

Mini Neo

[Pretty much nothing to say here. No substantive posts.]

[petroleumjelly]

Okay, now for the other half.

2.) {CES, Mgm, OTU}

->

A.

Cogito Ergo Sum

Good: Asked Glork to explain who he thought the Serial Killer was. Seemed very positive that cross-kills would happen in order to help the town. Made sure Zindaras was aware of extra kill when Zindaras was doing his endgame analysis in order to decide what type of scum was best to lynch. Pointed out to Lowell that he need not listen to MoS.

Bad: Lurked for pretty much the entire first three days of the game, and only became active when it was clear something was happening (most notably, when the mafia started to get caught by spectrumvoid/klebian), which strikes me being selective with his attention to the game. He was late in voting for Adele, and the purpose of his vote looks more like an attempt at distancing more than anything. After Glork was caught, CES immediately tries to end the day as fast as possible ("let's run him up!" and so on). The fact that Glork called CES the SK could be a possible distancing tactic. Used multiple WIFOM defenses so as to not look like scum. Tries to play down the possibility of Cult, and when even showing an acceptance of it, his first reaction is for the Vigilante to claim (!!!???), which was in no way good for the town since Glork/MoS were definitely the lynch for that day, and revealing the Vigilante would not have helped the situation. Gave two misconceptions about Cults (firstly that they are very rare, and secondly that they die when they fail recruitments). Also tried to up-play the possibility of a gunsmith, even though Courk has never used one in any of her games. Tried to make me look silly by saying "Jelly has common sense!" when I in know way pushed a lynch against Glork/MoS. Instead of defending his actions, he has mostly gone with lines such as "I am town" and "Try harder". Tried to use WIFOM in why he would not be a recruit target. Continually stuck to voting one person yesterday without really taking other things into consideration. He tried to make a weak case for why the town should "rush" (which is completely preposterous: the town is much better off sitting and thinking than rushing without thinking). His comment that I was "trying to get Glork to hush" by asking him questions makes absolutely no sense, and looks like a very weak attempt at casting suspicion.

->

B.

Mgm

Good: Has some pretty good reasoning for his votes early in the game, even though he is not originally from Mafia Scum. Asked for people to restate their cases instead of simply hopping onto bandwagons. Correctly stayed away from the possible "Ibby result" on Day Two when talked about by Eon/Re2.

Bad: Although he consistently said Sprontalic was "firmly on his scumdar", he later votes for Eon/Re2 on Sprontalic's reasoning. He follows Glork's suggestion at unvoting Eon/Re2 early in the game (I would expect they were planning on keeping Eon/Re2 alive for a lynch later in the game, or something). He peters out late in the game without giving reasons but instead promising to read back (though I will attribute this to the crashes and not scumminess).

->

C.)

Over the Under

[Like Mini Neo before this, OTU has no substantive posts from which to get a read off of].

[petroleumjelly]

Wow. The bads definitely outweight the goods for CES there, whereas the goods slightly outweigh the bads for Lowell/Spront. Pretty sure I know where my vote will be going, unless something really drastic happens.

I doubt it matters, but would the two of you mind claiming? As I stated yesterday, MBL and I are Townies.

I won't place a vote until we hear from Lowell.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Why did you reverse the Bad-Good order?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'm waiting to hear from Lowell/sprontalic now, as I expect the decision will lie with them. I've made up my mind.

[MrBuddyLee]

Then why not vote? Because you're being manipulative.

vote: CES

[Amb]

Ouch. Good luck town.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Then why not vote? Because you're being manipulative.

Because I wanted to see how Lowell would react to that statement before commiting.

[petroleumjelly]

*Bump* for Lowell.

Remember that there's no rush; feel free to ask MBL/me or CES/OTU questions.

[Lowell]

Wow am I ever being set up for a fall.

Very big

FOS CES

. The way you say "oh, well, the town is doomed, but clearly Lowell is the most suspicous" is opportunistic as hell.

A question. If its townie, cult, mafia remaining, wouldn't the cult and town tie if we kill the mafia? I thought only a cult leader could convert someone, and there woudn't be a nightkill.

[petroleumjelly]

Firstly, unless you are jerking my chain and are voting as I'm typing this, I now know that you are not mafia (or else you would have simply voted off CES by this point). You still might be Cult, but if that's the case, I can't win anyways.

Secondly, to be fair, CES came into the day 'suspicious' of MBL and I, not you. Although I agree CES has been fairly opportunistic, that particular reason is untrue.

Now, for your question:

A question. If its townie, cult, mafia remaining, wouldn't the cult and town tie if we kill the mafia? I thought only a cult leader could convert someone, and there woudn't be a nightkill.

In my experience, these are how things play out:

-> If one cult and one townperson are left, even if the cult can no longer recruit, the cult wins.
-> If one cult and one mafiate are left, the mafia wins.

Even though a remaining cultist (I would assume) cannot convert anybody else, the cultist would win against one townsperson: cults traditionally win when they control 50% of the town, regardless of whether or not they can still recruit.

So essentially (in case this is what you're getting at), if you're Cult and you lynch the mafiate today, you win. And likewise, if you're actually town and you lynch the mafiate today, you also win, and so will the rest of the town!

[Lowell]

hey look, a vote on CES.

I guess I'm not scum, after all. Good for me.


Here's another question for both. What makes you guys so sure its not SK, mafia, and townie (in which case, I agree I'm screwed)?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Vote: Djelibeybi

, as Lowell has proven himself not to be the final Mafia, as I expected.

Very big FOS CES. The way you say "oh, well, the town is doomed, but clearly Lowell is the most suspicous" is opportunistic as hell.

I have no idea what you're thinking about.