Two-Headed Mafia 2 - GAME OVER!

[petroleumjelly]

Here's another question for both. What makes you guys so sure its not SK, mafia, and townie (in which case, I agree I'm screwed)?

The chances of that being the case are extraordinarily small. We have had two nightkills each night. Glork verified on D4 that his scum group was responsible for the "multiple gunshots" kills, by trying to use the "single gunshot" to find a SK. Yesterday, Amb claimed to be the Vigilante, and took credit for all of the "single gunshot" kills. If there is a SK remaining, they must necessarily have chosen

not to kill

every single night (or alternatively have had kills blocked/docced, etc).

Also (as obvious as this is going to sound), MBL and I are Townies, so if there is a SK and Mafia left, it can only be between the two of you [CES and Lowell]. In addition to there being no evidence whatsoever of a SK

and

a Vigilante in this game, I am doubting you're scum at the moment (unless you are Cult trying to make sure you lynch mafia, of course), so I can pretty safely discard that possibility.

I should be around for about another half hour.

[Lowell]

So can someone answer the question?

Just so you know, I'm obviously voting no lynch if I decide its me, SK and mafia. I'll let you game theory wizards figure it out.

[petroleumjelly]

Have you read my Post 1225, Lowell? I'm assuming you were in the middle of typing your response to CES as I was submitting my own response to you.

[Lowell]

simulpost.

So what happens if its town and cult left? A tie?

[petroleumjelly]

In my experience, these are how things play out:

-> If one cult and one townperson are left, even if the cult can no longer recruit, the cult wins...

[Lowell]

Vote: Djelibeybi

, as Lowell has proven himself not to be the final Mafia, as I expected.

Very big FOS CES. The way you say "oh, well, the town is doomed, but clearly Lowell is the most suspicous" is opportunistic as hell.

I have no idea what you're thinking about.

Yeah me neither. Sorry, all this stuff runs together. I misread a word somewhere.

Okay, well, I'm not ready to vote yet, but here's what I'm thinking, just so you guys will know.

Both of you are liars.

Reading through what has happened so far, I find it difficult to believe there isn't a cult remaining in this game. If there is, and if what PJ says is true, it really doesn't matter who I vote for. Last night screwed me.

My guess, currently, is that CES is scum and PJ/MBL is cult. Certainly, as a cult leader, the PJ/MBL team is one I would want to bring over as soon as possible.

Two things:

1) I am, of course, still willing to entertain the notion that there is another townie between you. I find it very unlikely, but I'll entertain it.

2) If there

isn't

another townie (more likely), I'll probaly vote with whoever I think is cult, if only because there might be a chance that the mod will end it in a draw.

Speaking of:

Mod

, to forward my question, can you tell us what would happen in a cult/town endgame? Or am I not allowed to ask that question?

[petroleumjelly]

*sigh*

As you wish. I'll finish my claim, then.

I was not lying about what role I was given: MBL and I began the game as Townies.

Much to my dismay, however, we were recruited on Night Four by spectrumvoid/klebian. I argued with MBL, and he convinced me to go for the win even though I hate cults very much (specifically, he said to go for the win if spectrumvoid/klebian died: I told him that if they

didn't

die, I would push for a lynch on spec/kleb anyways).

I got minimal discussion with spectrumvoid/klebian the other night, and from my understanding, the Cult can only recruit

townies

. All the targets they have claimed were actually true. They could not recruit StD/Pablito on N1 because the were a Doctor. They could not recruit Pooky/Adele on N2 because they were scum. And they could not recruit Glork/MoS on N3 because they were scum. They successfully recruited us last night because we are a Townie. Since the Cult Leader died, the cult can no longer recruit.

I will be perfectly frank: you have already lost the game. The cult wins when it controls 50% of the town: I have already verified this with the mod. Also, if you would like to check on Courk's past modding history, she is consistent with having Cults win when they control 50% of the town. CES is the final mafia.

If you lynch me, CES will win along with Pooky/Adele and MoS/Glork (and to be perfectly honest, I don't think

any

of these players have in any way "deserved" to win). If you lynch CES, MBL/me and spectrumvoid/klebian will win. If you No-Lynch, CES will kill one of us and win with the mafia.

Apologies for putting you through this, but I was rather hoping to get you to vote CES without having to claim. Feel free to take your time, I realize exactly how sucky your situation is at the moment.

[petroleumjelly]

*"Last night" of course means N4.

[Lowell]

Yep, that sounds about right.

I've always wanted to have a 50 page game come down to a coinflip. How does the dice function work?

[petroleumjelly]

Lowell, please to God don't use dice for this.

Read the game. Who deserves the win more?

1.) The Mafia, who have played terribly. Even though they consisted of some of the "best" players of the site, they simply rolled over and died when spectrumvoid/klebian called them out. The only reason CES is still alive right now is because MBL and I did not hammer them yesterday. They couldn't even find out who the Vigilante was, even though MBL and I were able despite having had no game information whatsoever!

The only reason CES was able to take out the Vigilante at all was because I realized I was becoming a target for a mafia-kill, so I realized I had to out Amb in order to veer the nightkill away from me.

2.) The Cult, who have by all means played exceptionally well. Nobody suspected spectrumvoid/klebian of being Cult Leader except for MBL and I, and that was only after they had successfully managed to catch two separate mafiates for the town. They have only gathered such a small following through bad luck:

three failed recruitments in a row

is devestating, and yet they have managed to get one of their cultists (me) to endgame; a commendable task. As much as I am disgusted at having been culted despite my threat, they made the best gameplay choice: recruit the person who caught them.

MBL and I have been on the money practically this entire game. If you still want to use the dice function, I could probably found out how to do it, but I ask you to vote based on dessert rather than randomness.

[petroleumjelly]

I need to go classes. I'll try to post later today if it will help aid your decision.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Lowell, I'm not scum. Either you accept a loss or you vote for Djelibeybi, the lying scumbag and take a victory.

Objectively(that is, I'll ignore the knowledge that I'm town for this exercise), a vote for me is a vote for a loss and a vote for Djelibeybi is a vote for a possible victory. Who deserves to win is not in any way relevant.

[petroleumjelly]

<In the process of leaving>

Confirm Vote: Cogito Ergo Sum

.

That doesn't even make sense. Where did last night's kill come from, genius?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You're a lying scumbag, specifically a lying mafiate.

[Lowell]

Aren't you guys just too cute.

I'll do a quick reread through the game, just for kicks. Or skim, anyway. Whatever. This ending is ridiculous.

I'll vote by the end of the day.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Gah. The power of logic and ethics compels you to vote for Djelibeybi.

Do you want to win? Yes.

So what is required for a Town Victory? For there firstly not to be a cult. Secondly for us to lynch the final Mafiate.

The first condition we have no control over. We can fulfill the second one. Objectively, if there's just one Mafiate, it has to be Djelibeybi, because he's already admitted to not being town. Therefore, we need to lynch him.

To phrase it differently: if there's a cult, the town's screwed, if there's not, Djelibeybi is lying and the mafiate and we must then lynch him.

[petroleumjelly]

CES, give it up. You're not fooling anybody. Criminy.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You know the logic is solid, Djelibeybi.

Objectively, the only chance for the town to win lies with a Djelibeybi-lynch and you know it. Subjectively, this is only more true.

[petroleumjelly]

You keep forgetting one little twist: the fact that you're mafia. I guarantee Lowell isn't going to let that tidbit of information slip by him.

Lowell cannot win this game no matter which way he votes, so I'm not sure why you are still bothering to make it appear like he actually "has a chance" of winning. He does not.

It would have been insanely easy for me to lie and say:

1.) "Yes, you can tie with the cult"; or alternatively, that
2.) "Cultists have a 50% chance of recruiting once the Cult Leader is dead, so vote CES and I'll try recruit you!"

... but I'm not that type of player. The fact is, the Cult wins once we control 50% of the town. I won't bother trying to sugar-coat Lowell's situation.

I suggest you suck it up and do the same.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

But I'm not mafia and more importantly there's an objective chance that I'm town. That alone is a good enough reason for Lowell to vote for you. Objectively, if he votes for you, he has a chance of winning. Subjectively, if he votes for you, him and me win.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Lowell, you have an ethical duty to play for the victory, to vote for Djelibeybil.

And if you want to bring who deserves it most into, then Djelibeybi deserves to lose for claiming to be cult.

[petroleumjelly]

No sense talking to a broken record. You're just repeating yourself over and over.

Actually, I may as well ask you a question to point out the stupidity of your constant denial:

Please enlighten me as to your theory on how spectrumvoid/klebian never once was able to recruit even one person after having four separate chances to recruit somebody. Trying to call me mafia and you town is basically saying exactly that must have happened.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Spec/kleb got roleblocked Night 1 or targetted a power role when they could only recruit townies. Night 4 they tried to recruit you(scum) or their death prevented it or they tried to recruit Amb but failed because they could only recruit Townies.

I admit that objectively 1 cult, 1 mafia, 1 town is likelier than 1 mafia, 2 town, but that doesn't matter. The 1 cult, 1 mafia, 1 town scenario always entails a town loss. 1 mafia, 2 town, gives the town a chance at victory. Even a 1% chance, although I obviously think the odds are objectively significantly higher, at there not being a cultist justifies the Djelibeybi-lynch.

[petroleumjelly]

I admit that objectively 1 cult, 1 mafia, 1 town is likelier than 1 mafia, 2 town, but that doesn't matter.

The 1 cult, 1 mafia, 1 town scenario always entails a town loss. 1 mafia, 2 town, gives the town a chance at victory. Even a 1% chance, although I obviously think the odds are objectively significantly higher, at there not being a cultist justifies the Djelibeybi-lynch.

The fact that you keep referring to "objectively, the set-up could be X" is really obviating the fact that you are mafia. Townspeople do not talk about "objective" stances on the game: they talk about

what the game is

.

This is NOT an objective game. Information is given away by how people act, what people say, and how people play their roles.

The facts are:
1.) I am Cult, and I was recruited on Night Four. Before that (days One through Four) I was a Townie.
2.) You are Mafia, and you are trying to appeal to "objective stances" which somehow give Lowell a "chance at winning", when he in reality has no chance whatsoever.
3.) Lowell is some sort of townsperson, and no matter which he votes, he loses.

The only person you're trying to fool here is Lowell, because I have zero doubt that you are Mafia. Hopefully he realizes that

you're

the one trying to play him at endgame, whereas I am being as straight-up as possible about my role and the situation he is in.

I think MBL put it best. You are trying being manipulative even when your role is obvious.

[MrBuddyLee]

Sigh. I can't believe my partner just claimed un-town.

Lowell, CES is clearly lying:

You're a lying scumbag, specifically a lying mafiate.

For him to say this with confidence he'd have to know we're scum and you're cult. But see, we're not. We're cult and you're apparently town.

So you're stuck in the middle and I'm sorry you have to decide between the lesser of two evils. For what it's worth, cult nailed two scumbaggos in a row (Pooky, Glork). We even made it perfectly clear to town that there was a cult, due to our general displeasure with cults. CES just kind of sat around and ate cake. And if he's gonna try to convince you there were only two scum in a game with a cult, he's high as a kite.

However it turns out, it was a fun game. Thanks Courk.