Two-Headed Mafia 2 - GAME OVER!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Amb, dude, it was a joke.

Nightson, I think you're too negative about possible crosskills. (Also, I'm not the SK, so I don't think the real SK is going to trust the town to take care of the mafia for him.) And Glrok could even be unnkable or something, I don't know. Lynching him seems like a better idea.

[MrBuddyLee]

My reread pretty much turned up exactly what amb's did, minus the spot of CES fosing his partner ("a joke"). amb is clearly trying to find scum harder than any other team. Which is great, except I think it means he's scum trying to escape a tricky situation with a win.

I don't have enough to work with on Nightson/TSS, CDB/Zindy, CES/MGM, Lowell/spront. Any of those teams could EASILY be scum. spront and mgm seemed modestly pro-town, but their posts have dropped off and I don't think a firm conclusion can be reached. If these people don't start posting, my brain will burst a blood vessel like it did in Jack of all Trades. Please don't let that happen.

Glork/MoS is covered. I don't think they're lying about their kills, but I wonder if they're lying about their role. I can't see GlorkOs killing Fritz twice or ibaesha, and it's unfair to amb not to be privvy to that because he's from another site but I think he should be filled in with that info. It's interesting to note that the scum groups don't appear to be gunning for scum at night. But at this point I think the scumteam that hits the other first will probably win the game, thus Glork's willingness to help find scum if he's not an SK. And the way WE win is by helping them find each other and facilitating those crosskills.

amb has played the prototypical scum game to this point, which has had me wondering if he's scum. In a hurry to end days and not too concerned about getting lynches right. Criticizing people for not posting analyses while being thin with his. But now that it's on the line he's hunting scum. Which is good in a way--it's the same as what Nightson and I are doing, but in this case my gut tells me amb is scum. He's dropped a hint of game knowledge, implying non-vanilla, I believe.

Here's the clincher on amb:

in my mind have picked out one very likely to be scum (CES), and one certainty (Glork). The horrid or perhaps not so horrid thing is that the certainty is fingering the one the I think is likely - and that does bother me.

It's entirely normal for two different scumteams to finger each other. The fact that amb has a problem with Glork's finger of CES means to me that

amb knows Glork and CES are not on opposite teams

. Which would mean that amb has inside knowledge of one scumteam.

klebian/sv could be a cult leader. If they tried to recruit scum and failed, they'd know alignment. I agree with amb that I don't see three cops as likely. The only way I see Glork killing last night is if he's the SK, because if he's on a scumteam the fact that he was under suspicion yesterday would have made him pass the gun to a teammate. Unless he's a retarded cocky bastard. Hmm. So sv/kleb probably didnt get a guilty by tracking or copping Glork, thus my suspicion they may be cult. The argument against this is that if they wanted to recruit town last night, GlorkOs was a risky choice imo.

Would the game be balanced with a cult leader, a Glork+pooky+X scumteam , an amb SK, and 5-6 power roles? I think so, but it'd be utter chaos, which is kind of what this game's been.

Town is safe as long as scum is trying to kill each other off. It definitely looks like that's what amb and Glork/MoS have shifted gears to. Let's help them succeed.

Nightson, your post was thoughtful, and though my gut tells me we should lynch 100% known scum today, it's worth analyzing whether taking a chance at cutting down nightkills to one would help town or expose us to more danger.

If someone hammers, and I'm not alive tomorrow, please get the lurkers out from under rocks and see if they're more suspicious than CES/amb. If kleb/sv are alive, grill them. Town can still win this but can't make many more mistakes.

[ambic]

"In lightofmy post why do you believe voting Glork to be the optimal strategy? "

Because if I pushed for no lynch so the scum can try and attack each other, then 1. Everyone would hate me for it, and 2. It wouldn't work in this situation.

But Glork will try to mislead us away from his own mafia if he can. I have no knowledge of CES being scum with Glork. But I read CES FIRST, and concluded he was scum based on his posts. Then I read Glork the confessor, and I think it fair enough for me to assume that they are in the same team. I admit I didnt realise CES's FOS statement was a joke. My apologies for that.

I was half tempted to vote CES first and have Glork die overnight, but it seemed a risky plan because we dont know how big the mafia is, and it is best to get rid of a scum that we know is from a group.

[ambic]

"Would the game be balanced with a cult leader, a Glork+pooky+X scumteam , an amb SK, and 5-6 power roles?"

I think a 4 strong mafia is more likely. On the assumption that that is right, we MUST lynch scum today and Glork has given us that. But even then, we will have 6 alive at dawn and then the scum still win. I think the onus is on us now to find another mafia member before tomorrow. If we don't then I think the game is a foregone conclusion.

Unvote

We will and must lynch Glork. We must find 1 more scum from his team.

I don't have enough to work with on Nightson/TSS, CDB/Zindy, CES/MGM, Lowell/spront. Any of those teams could EASILY be scum. spront and mgm seemed modestly pro-town, but their posts have dropped off and I don't think a firm conclusion can be reached. If these people don't start posting, my brain will burst a blood vessel like it did in Jack of all Trades. Please don't let that happen.

Correct. We need these guys to post before we can make an informed decision. I did get a pro-town feeling from MGM. That is always dangerous

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

If there's still a cult leader, then the town doesn't stand a chance in hell, so there's really no point in taking that possibility into account.

I'm presuming there are currently 3 mafia and 1 SK alive, in that case, lynching Glrok would not lose us the game, even if two good guys get nked.

Also, amb, that vote for Pooky/Adele I placed was pointless. It doesn't in any way exonerate me from not being part of the lynch, as I made it clear that I knew that they were already lynched, barring unusual circumstances. Are there any other reasons you think I'm scum?

[petroleumjelly]

Well, not technically, CES. MBL and I have been throwing around possible set-ups, trying to decide what is/is not likely. Since this game started with 17 players, it's a bit difficult to decide.

If

Spec/Kleb are Cult of some kind, the town wouldn't necessarily be screwed. I've seen enough Cult Leaders act like Cops (without ever claiming information whatsoever, as they are doing in this game) that I have become very weary of such a possibility. If you would like a few examples, check out WoT Mafia (where I damned well

should

have lynched Tamuz the Cult Leader, who claimed a very vague information role) or Random Mafia (where Ibby managed to push a lynch because she had failed to recruit flyingm00c0w).

And

if

that is the case, that would mean they tried to recruit Pooky/Adele N2, and Glork/MoS N3, meaning they would have one live recruit from N1.

Furthermore, if there is a Cult this game, that does make it possible for there to be a 3-person mafia group. It should further be noted (MBL and I are discussing this possibility right now, in fact) that there is not a Serial Killer in this game whatsoever, but instead a Forced Vig, whose purpose is probably to lessen the chances of a Cult getting too large too quickly.

In light of this, I would like spec/kleb to claim to exact nature of their information, as well as their night choices. I don't want to get screwed over by a cult

again

if I can help it.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

So who did our "forced vig" target? A doc and two townies? 2 cops and 1 townie? I mean, a forced vig wouldn't be this crappy, would he?

And at this stage of the game a forced vig should claim to be able to help the town to the fullest. Unless we hear a vig claim, I'm not taking your theory seriously.

[MrBuddyLee]

hmm just reread MGM's posts. Everything put together implies that sv/kleb are cult and we still have a chance to beat them, but everyone will have to be smart to do it. They'd be a two person cult if that theory is correct, so we're not nearly screwed, things are just very complicated. We might not have an SK either.

Other head and I are on the job. My biggest problem with all this is that klebian drew attention to himself by pointing out scum, which could mean he's a cult lackey. I will tell you one thing quite honestly, PJ's blood pressure went up 75 points when I made the case for a cult, and if you recruit him, he'll either crap his pants and quit the game or take the cult down from within. Actually, since cult leader hasn't recruited us yet, they may be aware of that meta-game fact already.

Cult is looking damned likely--we'll probably know once sv/kleb dance around this claim they've spent the last few days arranging via PM. Keep in mind cult would have to get scum lynched to win and scum has to NK/lynch cult to win.

[petroleumjelly]

In fact, while I am on the subject. For those of you who are (as of yet) unaware:

I really hate cults. I do not think they should be in mafia games whatsoever.

If

there is a Cult, and

if

they have even had a passing fancy of recruiting MBL and myself, I promise this to you: I

will

rat out that cult. This might be against "the spirit of the game", but I think cults are much more against the spirit of the game than any other role. Having somebody be town for four days in a row (seven/eight days in WoT), and then magically converting them to scum pisses me off.

Thought I should throw that out there are fair warning.

PPE: CES, try to think about more possibilities than what you think is "the obvious". If you have noticed, the SK/Vig has been targeting people who

lots

of players believe have an annoying playstyle. Namely, Fritz, Coron, DGB, and then Fritz again. If there is a forced Vig, going after general lurkers and people who could easily be scum because of their general unreadability and unhelpfulness is not altogether a bad strategy. It's not like the Vig

would know

that they are targeting Cops and Townies (I would consider the Vig to be the "single shot", if such wasn't made apparent by my posting), so you can't really use that as an argument against the possibility.

I would also imagine that the Mafia would definitely be pushing the SK agenda, whilst not considering the possibility of a Vig.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Then the vig can damn well come forward. I'm not giving this game to the scum by not lynching our claimed scum.

[Courk]

Skruffs replaces ChannelDeliBird.

[Nightson]

Look, whether it's an SK or a forced vig doesn't really matter right now, as long as there's a non-mafia killing role the best strategy is no to lynch Glork today. This is

absolutely

imperative if there is a cult in this game as well.

Glork is insurance on our speculation today, we can hunt for cult or for another member of the mafia and

not

be in a Lynch-or-Lose situation. The only things that would make this plan untenable would be 1) Glork being unnkillable 2) the non-mafia killing role being roleblocked. I don't think either of those possibilities are remotely likely.

ambic/RangeroftheNorth <-- probably mafia (I was getting strong feelings of scum from his latest posts, MBL's quote and suspicion make me pretty certain he's scum)
The Silent Speaker/Nightson <--not scum
ChannelDelibird/Zindaras <-- dunno
Cogito Ergo Sum/Mgm <-- probably scum
Glork/Mastermind of Sin <-- scum obv (mafia I think)
klebian/spectrumvoid <-- cult?
Mini Neo Lowell/sprontalic <-- dunno
MrBuddyLee/petroleumjelly <--probably not scum

@CES, my situations are worst case, crosskills will help the town but if we

rely

on them we can easily get screwed.

Also, the vig/SK should

not

claim unless they're in danger of being lynched, especially if it's vig witht he cult, are you trying to get him recruited CES?

@Spec/kleb,

"I would like spec/kleb to claim to exact nature of their information, as well as their night choices."

Seconded.

[the silent speaker]

My internet hates me until Tuesday (see V/LA). I will try to post serious content then. For now I will only say that my top suspect of a poorly-thought-out game (poorly thought through by me, not all of you) was GlorkOS, and yes I realize how wonderfully helpful that is; and to my other head, a cursory glance at your figures left me wondering how we reach 2-1-1 entering night -- it seems that no matter which scum we lynch today, we go into night with the same number of people. That said, I do see the potential advantage in lynching an unknown scum if we can trust the SK to correct errors.

[Zindaras]

I've seen the information role Cult thing a lot, and I do it myself too.

The question is: what do we choose to believe? We don't know the sanity of the dead Cops. If they weren't sane, then voidybuns/klebby is probably talking the truth. If they were both sane, then I have trouble believing voidybuns/klebby is town.

On the other hand, three cops could be necessary to balance 4 Mafia/1 SK in this kind of setup.

Now, if there's a forced vig, there could be a Cult. But, then, I'd say, 3 Mafia+Cult, and two Cops plus a forced vig.

In that case, voidybuns/klebby (teehee, klebbybuns) is scum.

In the other case, we're screwed if we lose voidybuns/klebby.

Regardless, I feel that the correct lynch today is GlorkoS. The only possible way we could insta-lose with that lynch is if he's SK and there's 3 Mafia left, which is not the case.

And I'm overjoyed to see Skruffs replacing in. <3 Skruffs.

Catch me them scum!

[petroleumjelly]

The question is: what do we choose to believe? We don't know the sanity of the dead Cops. If they weren't sane, then voidybuns/klebby is probably talking the truth. If they were both sane, then I have trouble believing voidybuns/klebby is town.

On the other hand, three cops could be necessary to balance 4 Mafia/1 SK in this kind of setup.

Now, if there's a forced vig, there could be a Cult. But, then, I'd say, 3 Mafia+Cult, and two Cops plus a forced vig.

The problem with all of this is that we don't know the full town set-up: there may as yet be unclaimed power roles which would help to explain the balance of any given possible set-up for scum groupings.

As it is, I can't see three cops being "necessary" for a 4 Mafia/1 SK game (as you suggest), because there

should

have been a crosskill somewhere along the line in that case. Since I have seen mini games with 3 Mafia/1 SK (and in fact, they are becoming quite common), and that this game has 5 more roles than a mini game, I would think that

at least

one of the Cops would have had some sort of sanity issue. Furthermore, I just find it hard to believe that there would be 4 mafia v 1 SK, unless that SK had some really stellar upgrades (such as UNNK and investigation immunity, or perhaps unnighttargetability for a forfeited kill, etc).

I do agree, however, that if there is a Cult at all (which is by no means even assured), that we are much more likely to be dealing with a Forced Vig and

not

a SK, seeing as that would necessitate that the game began with 5 scum,

but

with the very real possibility of the number of finishing scum increasing to 6, 7, or 8 (in a 17 player game)! However, a Vig (even a forced Vig) taking out scummy players would help to weed out cultists, I would imagine, while the Cult would be able to effectively search for scum through failed recruits (as would be the case with spec/kleb here, if this is true), thus making the necessity for information roles decrease.

I have noticed klebian posting in many other games today, and yet pointedly ignoring this game ever since the possibility of him being cult has been brought up. A note: You shouldn't need to have to talk to your partner whatsoever in order to claim your role, how you got your information (and on what nights), and why you chose the people you did to gain that information. I will not believe, at this point, that spec/kleb are not working with some sort of inside information.

[Zindaras]

Maybe this is pointless speculation, but I have once played as a Serial Killer who knew the names of all the Mafiates.

I'm not seeing Cult myself, though. It's possible, looking at the game, but I would've expected at least one dead Cult member by now.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Furthermore, I just find it hard to believe that there would be 4 mafia v 1 SK, unless that SK had some really stellar upgrades (such as UNNK and investigation immunity, or perhaps unnighttargetability for a forfeited kill, etc).

Dude, SKs are supposed to lose. This is balanced by the fact that they're awesome. I put a slightly downgraded SK in my 22-player Goats mafia. He didn't stand a chance, but that's not the point. He got to be

Space Hitler

and that's awesome. (I wouldn't be surprised if the SK did have a perk, but that's besides the point.)

Nightson, if we don't have a vig(forced or just plain dumb), we don't have a cult, realistically speaking. A vig-claim would be very informative. Also: reducing the amount of nks could be a good thing, maybe?

[MrBuddyLee]

I'll check in with my other head first, just want to discuss something.

Have you two finished discussing what penitentiary you'd like to chill in for the next 25 years? If not, I hear Sing Sing's lovely this time of year.

[petroleumjelly]

I'm not seeing Cult myself, though. It's possible, looking at the game, but I would've expected at least one dead Cult member by now.

Pay more attention. If spec/kleb are the Cult Leader, then they tried to recruit Pooky/Adele N2 and failed, and tried to recruit Glork/MoS N3 and failed. That means they only had a successful recruit on N1, meaning there would only be two cultists in the game. It is entirely possible for the cult to just be plain missed so far as nightkills go.

Furthermore, you seriously need to at least glance over WoT Mafia. That was something like a 30 player game, and over the course of seven days and eight nights, not one cultist was nightkilled or lynched, even though the Cult Leader claimed to have some sort of information, and two of the cultists had claimed information roles (i.e. what you would think would be excellent nightkill targets for scum). A game with 17 players missing a maximum of two cultists for three nights and three days is more than possible, so far as I am concerned.

And since I have now seen spectrumvoid post in other games, while pointedly ignoring this one, I am really starting to think MBL and I have hit the nail on the head. If they are a Cop (or some other legit role), they should have no problems coming to the thread.

If spec/kleb come up cult at this point, Zindie, you are starting to look like a likely cultist along with them, of those left in the game.

[petroleumjelly]

Klebian, I see you looking at threads in the Theme Park forum. Come post with us, eh?

[klebian]

Yeah, ok, I'm here, eh?
Yes, I guess we have to claim, but we've been discussing the benefits because one doc is dead, and we're not sure if there's another one.

We're gunsmiths. This is the reasonin from my claim of pooky/adele as scum yesterday, I really didn't consider a vig (what's a forced-vig, exactly? He HAS to kill every night? And how would his choice work if he forgot to send in a choice?) as I didn't think that a reasonable vigilante wouldn't think through his kills enough to kill the cops both nights..
We received a result of 'no gun' on pablito/std, then that pooky/adele had a gun, and then that glork/mos had a gun. I still don't think the vig reasoning is reasonable, I just don't see a forced vig happening in this game, and I especially don't think a vig would kill fritz whenever he came into the game...

I don't get this cult speculation. You're saying that a cult leader would fail a recruitment and thus conclude that his recruitment is scum? How does this follow? Well, I guess, I should ask, what happens when a cultist tries to recruit scum? I've only played in one game with cult, and that was on another forum, and when cult recruited scum, a cultist died... But I guess it's not the same on this forum? (Just a note: the mod of that game is a regular player on these forums as well)

At any rate, I don't think that it's reasonable for someone who doesn't understand the reasoning about cult just as much as me would also be considered cult if sv and i come up cult. Our discussion is slow through PMs, since we live in backwards time zones, but I think that at this point a claim was necessary, although I don't know how reasonable asking was.

But whaterver; we are gunsmiths, and have been assuming that gun-owners (in this game) are guilty. I still don't consider a vigilante, because that would shorten this game quite a bit, with up to 3 kills a night...

[petroleumjelly]

To be honest, if your claim is correct, that only bolsters the chances of a Vigilante.

Gunsmiths are supposed to be a

weaker

form of a Cop, specifically because they do not know whether or not a person who has a gun is scum, or a Vigilante (or possibly a Cop, depending on how the mod works). They are often put into games when there is a Vigilante, so that when the gunsmith gets a "gun" result, they cannot be

positive

that that person is actually scum, but may in fact be pro-town.

If there is no Vigilante, that would essentially make you two a Sane Cop (unless cops are investigated as having guns, which we don't know), which goes back to the problem of having three Cops.

What have your results been for each night?

[klebian]

'We received a result of 'no gun' on pablito/std, then that pooky/adele had a gun, and then that glork/mos had a gun. I still don't think the vig reasoning is reasonable, I just don't see a forced vig happening in this game, and I especially don't think a vig would kill fritz whenever he came into the game... '
I see your reasoning, but I really really don't see a vig happening, based on how the kills have been falling the previous nights, and then because I don't think a 3 person mafia, a sk, and a vig, + 2 cops + gunsmith + doc + rb + other unknown town roles + townies would be good for the town.

[petroleumjelly]

Reasons for investigations?

[klebian]

I don't

really

know why pablito/std were investigated. SV told me that she had thought they were bandwagoning off and on throughout the day, and that they quickly changed from pushing 'our' lynch to a sl/bird lynch despite championing a lynch of us through the day.
Night 2, sv didn't have much time and left the choice to me, so I looked at the lurkers who usually didn't lurk, and decided on pooky/adele, which was also some of the reason I pressured them with during day 3, besides knowing that they had a gun.
Night 3, we thought that, MoS had been kinda iffy about posting and still was arguing a bit with ambic about her talking about other's lurkers, and basically being a hypocrite while arguing that he wasn't, and then glork was essentially talking to pooky/adele, telling them what they needed to do if they didn't want town to lynch them. He was attempting to help them no get lynched, which I guess is ok, but that seemed to much like scum tryin to help out other scum without really being obvious, and thesp as well pointed out that he thought glork was probably scum with them, so we decided to investigate glork.