Mini 1054/The Illusion - Creation (Over)

[TonyMontana]

/confirm and

vote:animorper

for good times sake

[TonyMontana]

Miller claim = Nulltell, and cops don't need to investigate person.

Vote:Zang

for trying to capitalize on my coding mistake.

[TonyMontana]

Chances of there being no scum: ~6%

Zang & animorpher: What do you think about this?

[TonyMontana]

Vote: Animorpher

for not showing up.

[TonyMontana]

Yes, based on 1/3 scum probabilty, and my limited math skills. I challenge anyone to challenge me on it.

Also, cause it's what i do, I will calculate more.

[TonyMontana]

WTF is a scum miller?

also, given the fact that I'm a miller, I called BS on rule 14 in my first post.

--

Wait. Scum+Miller could be a GF?? but then Why would I claim miller in the first place? I'd investigate as town, so claiming miller is counter intuitive in said case... disregard.

I don't see how you being miller has anything to say about rule 14.

Also, what you investigate as is irrelevant as it is pointless to investigate you. We'll just assume you give a guilty result.

[TonyMontana]

14) Alignments have been assigned to roles

randomly

.

Everyone

has been given a 1 in 3 chance of being mafia.

^Underlining done right.

It doesn't matter what role you have, you were still given a third chance of becoming scum.

[TonyMontana]

As suggested, maybe an antimiller of sorts.
Or maybe the miller role is just rendered redundant.

What would Cop + Mafia be? A redundant Cop. (unless there are 4+ mafia, which is as unlikely as no mafia)

[TonyMontana]

ah, my bad, the split happens at 3+, which is significantly more likely to have happened.

My point still stands, this game is based on random role assignments, and random alignments. The mod will not have gone "oh chrono is a miller! I guess I can't risk invalidating his role by giving him the 3-sided roll"

In other news, probability of at least 1 townie: 2/3

[TonyMontana]

More animorpher voats. No posts here, but posts out there.

Prod maybe?

[TonyMontana]

I'm here to point out that Animorpher is still very active, just not here.

Vote:Zang

Cause lurkers are often scum.

[TonyMontana]

And I thought my game was slow...

[TonyMontana]

Total posts by players since game started:35

Posts by me: 13

Posts by Chrono: 11

Posts by everyone else combined: 11

Conclusion: Everyone but me and Chrono are lurking scum. Two scum teams, and one SK

[TonyMontana]

So why are you voting for the person who does not think that lurkers are scum instead of the lurker that is often scum?

Because he is obviously defending his lurker scumbuddy. Which could be everyone else.

Wait, I'm guessing Gandalf is a third party or single scum that needs to find The Victim or something like that. Let's hurry up and lynch him in case he hasn't completed his wincondition somehow. It's the only thing that makes sense with his last two posts.

A role that wins upon finding the miller's rolename = worst setup ever.

[TonyMontana]

I could buy the whole thing as a joke. But I have a problem with the attempt to pass it off as strategy, only to later claim it was a joke.

[TonyMontana]

I'm ready to hammer. Just wanna give animorpher the chance to bus.

[TonyMontana]

@Tony: Wait, What? Ani hasn't even posted. Why would he be bussing? Do you know something I don't?

I'm not saying he would be bussing, I just say I'm willing to give him the chance. It is of course entirely possible that ani is scum of a different faction.

That been said, i second notion of getting ani replacement.

[TonyMontana]

vote:gandalf

FoS:

Whoever replaces ani

[TonyMontana]

Vote yourself, just so we're sure.

[TonyMontana]

Any news on that Ani replacement?

Do we think the lack of kill is some lame attempt by scum to make us believe there is no scum?
I have no plans on giving in anytime soon.

[TonyMontana]

In any case, I think this rules out there being 3 scum, as I doubt two teams would risk no-kill.

Which leaves us with the choice of the most likely 2 scum, the slightly less likely 1 scum, and the massively more unlikely 0 scum.

[TonyMontana]

Strike that, scum would obviously not know whether or not there are other scum teams.

[TonyMontana]

Keep forgetting that rule. That's obviously on top of my prediction list.

[TonyMontana]

MOD:

Does a scumteam of two get a kill, if one of them dies?

[TonyMontana]

I would, but I'm busy lurking.

[TonyMontana]

TM is probably town, his speculation on mafia composition at D2 start looks legit.

Pfft, TM could've easily faked that speculation. I say you keep a close eye on him.

Then again, your whole "millers cant be scum" thing is equally convincing, which is pretty much all i have to go on at the moment. I'm leaning towards it counting in your favor tho.

Zang, were you the one who got me going on the lurker thing in the first place? Gonna have to check on that. Does not bode well for you.

[TonyMontana]

What happened to your Ani suspicion?

It got replaced with adorable kitten feelings for UK.

Will explain why me being so close to lynch is a disaster later

[TonyMontana]

Yes, it implies lotsa drinkin during weekend. [barf_smiley]

I was being cute with my last post in a "no time to deflect right now, but wanna avoid speedlynch" kinda way.

I'm VT. Not a "disaster" lynch, exactly, but certainly not a great one either.

If we have a two-ply scum team, tomorrow will be lylo in case of mislynch today.
There is an off chance of UK-SK, since the role was unoccupied. This chance makes for wifom trouble, as a UK-SK surely can't kill tonight. And if there's another SK that chose not to kill, they could try to frame UK on that logic.

Maybe we should save ourselfs the headtrauma, and stick to the two-ply theory.

In which case, I nominate (ghostwriter) + (uk or swartz)

Vote: Ghostwriter

[TonyMontana]

The Dreamer

GW, yeah I can give reasons later. For now, we can start with your random "gut vote".

[TonyMontana]

Putting "gut vote" in quotations like that doesn't stop your iso from reading a bit scummy.

You placed a vote on me

without reason.

When called on it, you said it was

close to random.

Then you said you did it to

create discussion.

Then you said you chose me

because of my avatar

, and had no real reason for doing it.

When pushed on it, you change your story and say you had a

gut feeling

.

Now you suddenly have a

scummy read

on my ISO?

OBVIOUS SCUM TRYING TO RIDE HIS RANDOM VOTE TO MY GRAVE

is obvious.

[TonyMontana]

Since I promised to get back to Zang:

I completely disagree. 

1.Ani isn't just not active here, He's lurking in his other games.

2. Lurkers are not often scum. In almost every game I was in, there was a townie lurker. Even I sometimes lurk as town.

First off, in almost every game i was in, there was a scum lurker, and i often lurk as scum. I guess we can close that case then.

Secondly, Ani was active in other games while this game was going on. You seem to be making arguments for the sake of making some at all. Now, I don't think that's totally condemning for you, and I'm on the fence about UK at the moment, but i'll be willing to later consider the wifom of you both

making an argument for lurkers being town,

and for

trying to argue that ani wasn't lurking, he was flaking.

[TonyMontana]

Also, on the subject of Ani, he did flake on every game. I had him in other games with me at the same time, and he dropped out of them all, having to be replaced after never responding to prods. So I disagree with what you're trying to get at. Dude flaked.

I pointed out that he was still active first on his last day of posting.
I reiterate the point the next day.

He was very active elsewhere in the 4 days of this game being open before flaking.

Zang was making it sound like he had already flaked when I pointed this out. He wasn't lurking in other games. He prolly wasnt lurking in this one either. But at least he posted in the other games.

Do you agree with Zang that lurking is a towntell?

[TonyMontana]

Also, playing the OMGUS card? For shame...

[TonyMontana]

Furthermore, the fact that it was all done to create discussion and at random implies that I don't intend to ride it to your grave unless discussion leads that way. If I recall, I didn't make a case against you.

Well, feel free to either
A) make a case against me.
B) unjoin my wagon.

Or if you really wanna treat me, do both. (A∪B)²

[TonyMontana]

Well, I will in no way claim to have been VLA this weekend. Busy saturday, bed rest sunday. So yes, mindless actions in mish mash kept up, minor modding upkeep, and resorting to lurking in here, my only current game. (At least i think this is, =S)

Not really any case on me no.

GW voted me at random (or gut) (or random)
Zang voted me cause he wanted me to point out how he was totally wrong to disagree with my lurking statements.
xvartz put the L-1 vote on after this assessment, which i will respond to now:

I'm calling BS on this vote. You make a point of talking about how Ani is active elsewhere but not posting here and then vote another lurker because lurkers are scum? Plus his hammer/wait for Ani to bus thing doesn't really read genuine to me. What happened to your Ani suspicion?

First off, I voted Zang for claiming that lurkers were town, not for being lurker. In any case, It's beside the point, as the vote was mostly RVS fun.

Secondly, what part of the waiting for Ani to bus needed to be genuine?

[TonyMontana]

Didnt intend to accuse you of agreeing with zang, I was merely asking. ^^

In any case, fair enough about leaving your vote. I'm sure Zang and Gandalf will be by soon to help us. Zang, of course, only lurks as town, so he's cleared.

[TonyMontana]

it got less and less serious towards the end.

[TonyMontana]

[face_palm]

[TonyMontana]

How can there be 2 SKs? Wouldnt that just make another scum team?

Did not say two SK.

I agree that there are a lot of scum lurkers, but how many lurkers in your games were town?

About 49%

No he wasn't, I was just in a game where ani was lurking during this game. I also looked at his other ongoing games and he was lurking in them. I'm also in some mish mash games were he needed to be replaced. I don't know what games you're talking about but I saw almost no games were he was active.

But he wasn't posting in other games!

Animorpher's posts

Facts

are stubborn things, hard to argue with. 22nd was when I pointed it out. I was supposed to predict that it would be the last day he posted? Or did you know he was never coming back 2 days later?
And are we missing the point here, shouldn't someone call the cops or something, i mean the guy has a 4 post per day average for christ sake.

I'm not saying that all lurkers are town, I'm saying that just as many lurkers are town as there are scum.

I'm not arguing that it's a towntell, I'm arguing that its a nulltell.

Here's what you said:

Lurkers are

not often

scum.

These words do not argue it's a nulltell.

In any case, why are we fighting, I'm much more interested in having you join my GhostWriter campaign.

[TonyMontana]

Also, if just as many lurkers are town as they are scum, that would make it a huge scumtell. 50-50 chances don't come by everyday.

[TonyMontana]

Undisputable: Animorpher was still active when I said he was active.

Disputable: Lurking is a scumtell.

I'm willing to drop both discussions for the time being.

What is your case on GhostWriter? The only thing I see is that he changed the reasons for his vote on you from random to a gut read. I don't think that is enough to vote for.

1) What a horrible misrepresentation of my assessments of GW.
2) What are your reasons for voting me?

[TonyMontana]

If i understand it correctly, there's no upside to calling the game off.

I mean, do we lose if we play the game out to find there is no scum?

[TonyMontana]

I also saw no responses to my inquiry about when we should call no more scum. I will also ask what people think about mass claiming now? We didn't have a NK last night so one of the following must have occurred: scum don't have access to NK ability or Ani was scum with a NK ability but did not use it due to not being in the game or scum thought they could play more mind games with the small numbers and the game setup by not killing. If there is no NK then I don't see the harm of mass claiming. Thoughts?

xvart.

If the scum deliberately held back their kill, it could be to either make a calloff more likely, or to then suggest that a massclaim would be harmless, thus get access to all info by the next night.

I'm not suggesting it's likely, but I'd rather lynch GW today, and save MC for tomorrow.

[TonyMontana]

What point? All I'm seeing it you claiming that you did it for reactions, and then backtracking and saying it was for jokes the whole time after he beat down that idea.

This is GW justifying his vote for gandalf.

I could call it irony, but I'd rather call it yet another reason why GW should be todays lynch.

[TonyMontana]

unvote: GhostWriter

Not because I believe you, I just wanna be the hammer.

[TonyMontana]

To be clear, this is not me tunneling, I actually really don't believe that claim, and I'm willing to stake my life on it.

[TonyMontana]

If this claim was true, and it's not, then not caring about acting scummy would have been disastrous strategy, as any lynch of town-you from now on will lead to non-victory for town.

But that's probably what you're counting on us factoring in..

[TonyMontana]

We should probably vote on who does the hammer..

I have to take into consideration that town's chances of winning gets mildly better if someone else hammers.

Me being VT, or Chrono being miller is really irrelevant, as we most likely get a draw if both hammer and GW are town.

I nominate Zang.

[TonyMontana]

Bear with me.

UK, L-2 if I'm not mistaken.

Vote: GW

Make that L-1

[TonyMontana]

Why would GW fake claim? Scum have the same chance of getting any role as the town.

Yes, why would scum fake-claim bomb? Why, oh why? Jesus, this question will be bothering me for WEEKS.
WHAT POSSIBLE REASON COULD SCUM HAVE FOR FAKECLAIMING BOMB?

Anyways...

[TonyMontana]

If nobody backs me on this train of thought, I'll hammer as long as everyone says we can take a good long look at UK tomorrow when GW flips non bomb scum.

I'm both for you hammering, and for looking at UK tomorrow. If GW does flip non-bomb scum, we'll have two more lynches to find the remaining scum.

[TonyMontana]

Most likely, we get a draw.

[TonyMontana]

That is if xvart is town.

[TonyMontana]

And win if xvart is scum, and you are scum bomb. Yay.

[TonyMontana]

Today's supposed to be deadline.
Hammer time, xvart

[TonyMontana]

I have been open with all my assumptions. Less FUD, more hammer.

[TonyMontana]

ITT: xvart waiting and hoping a deadline lynch will leave me as a technical hammer

[TonyMontana]

Well, that's the thing, deadline was technically yesterday, but jdodge haven't really stated anything, besides the rules saying 2 weeks.

@jdodge

, if you decide to drop by, i think it would be fair and square to extend the theoretical deadline. Maybe to something like "deadline is when xvart drops the hammer on GW"

I swing my vote if xvart posts again without hammering, with the continued desire that a bomb hammers the other bomb.

[TonyMontana]

Ok, this is a disaster, xvart is already voting GW ¬¬

[TonyMontana]

UNOFFICIAL votecount

GW - chrono, xvart, tony
Tony - zang, GW
xvart - UK

[TonyMontana]

And in that even I would implore jDodge not to answer if UK is scum, as I'm sure we could feel the rage seeth through the board :p

[TonyMontana]

ebwop: *in that event

[TonyMontana]

You are correct, your vote was for xvart. Guess it wouldn't have been a huge task to flip that wagon.

If there really are 2 town bombs, I'm happy to lose In that event, let me just let the scum know right now that I'll join a scum wagon in a 2 vs 2 scenario. -.-

I kid, I kid...... I'll just selfvote, and let you join me

[TonyMontana]

Kittens

[TonyMontana]

vote:No-lynch

times infinity, unless there's a nightkill.

Either we are 2 vs 2, and have no way to win or there is one lone scum trying to trick us.

Either way, i say we commit to no-lynch, and the mod will have to either force a NK, or call a draw. (or let any scenario i havent consider happen)

[TonyMontana]

I dream of being famous. About going to the city, and making it big.

0 scum is not impossible. It's just very unlikely. about 6% chance, i believe we figured.

[TonyMontana]

this will be good.

What should I be dreaming?

[TonyMontana]

Yes.

For the record, I take that as personal confirmation of UK's flavor cop ability.

[TonyMontana]

While we're chattin, why is The Teacher a flavor cop?

[TonyMontana]

If there is no scum, then we can afford another lynch

well, then I leave it up to Zang, if he really is doublevoter.

my two cents:

Vote:UncertainKitten

[TonyMontana]

unvote

Just because it has no downsides:

vote:no-lynch

[TonyMontana]

1 scum is not ruled out. But I am as of now ranking it as least likely.