Mini 1054/The Illusion - Creation (Over)

[Chronopie]

Chances of there being no scum: ~6%

Zang & animorpher: What do you think about this?

Was this based on the "everyone has a 1/3 chance of being scum" ruling?

--

Also, slow opening is slow.

[TonyMontana]

Yes, based on 1/3 scum probabilty, and my limited math skills. I challenge anyone to challenge me on it.

Also, cause it's what i do, I will calculate more.

[Chronopie]

everyone has a 2/3 (or 66.67%) of being town. 7 people.

0.6667^7=0.0585

or 5.85% of

everyone

being town. That works.

[xvart]

I think that claiming miller should be considered neutral since there is pretty much an equal chance of being town or scum.

But the benefit of claiming miller is much more powerful in a smaller game. Miller claims usually get a free pass for a while. And, based on the setup, considering mafia may well be likely to also be miller, I think this is a good place to start. (however, if a scum miller gets investigated do they return a "town" result?)

This game really is slow starting. Let's go for a strong wagon to get some discussion going.

xvart.

[Chronopie]

WTF is a scum miller?

also, given the fact that I'm a miller, I called BS on rule 14 in my first post.

--

Wait. Scum+Miller could be a GF?? but then Why would I claim miller in the first place? I'd investigate as town, so claiming miller is counter intuitive in said case... disregard.

[TonyMontana]

WTF is a scum miller?

also, given the fact that I'm a miller, I called BS on rule 14 in my first post.

--

Wait. Scum+Miller could be a GF?? but then Why would I claim miller in the first place? I'd investigate as town, so claiming miller is counter intuitive in said case... disregard.

I don't see how you being miller has anything to say about rule 14.

Also, what you investigate as is irrelevant as it is pointless to investigate you. We'll just assume you give a guilty result.

[Chronopie]

Well...

14) Alignments have been

assigned to roles

randomly. Everyone has been given a 1 in 3 chance of being mafia.

So that means role comes first, e.g cop. then alignment, e.g town.

Role: Miller, Alignment: (really only one option here.)

[TonyMontana]

14) Alignments have been assigned to roles

randomly

.

Everyone

has been given a 1 in 3 chance of being mafia.

^Underlining done right.

It doesn't matter what role you have, you were still given a third chance of becoming scum.

[Chronopie]

So what would Mafia + Miller have been then? Do tell.

[TonyMontana]

As suggested, maybe an antimiller of sorts.
Or maybe the miller role is just rendered redundant.

What would Cop + Mafia be? A redundant Cop. (unless there are 4+ mafia, which is as unlikely as no mafia)

[Chronopie]

The rules say IF scum > 2 THEN factions > 1, possibly including an SK.

so if there are 3 scum, a scum cop is still of use to them.

[Chronopie]

EBWOP: Rule 16.

and 17 states that Mafia may not have a kill...

[TonyMontana]

ah, my bad, the split happens at 3+, which is significantly more likely to have happened.

My point still stands, this game is based on random role assignments, and random alignments. The mod will not have gone "oh chrono is a miller! I guess I can't risk invalidating his role by giving him the 3-sided roll"

In other news, probability of at least 1 townie: 2/3

[GhostWriter]

I think I'd have to agree with the assumption made earlier that a mafia sided miller is possible in the form of a GF. Don't know why that was ignored as a possiblity since it's a common enough mafia role.

[TonyMontana]

More animorpher voats. No posts here, but posts out there.

Prod maybe?

[Zang]

I think that if mafia got the miller role, it would just make him a normal mafia goon because I don't think the mod would lie in the rules.

And I'm not going to vote ani because I don't believe that lurkers are scummy.

[GhostWriter]

I'm pretty sure that reversing a town-aligned role that appears mafia when investigated by a sane cop will lead to a mafia-aligned role that appears town when investigated by a sane cop.

[gandalf5166]

I'm pretty sure that reversing a town-aligned role that appears mafia when investigated by a sane cop will lead to a mafia-aligned role that appears town when investigated by a sane cop.

Yeah. So we should stop the speculation, because if Chrono is scum, it's because he's lying about his role. I do have a question for Chrono though. What is your rolename?

[Chronopie]

The Victim

[TonyMontana]

I'm here to point out that Animorpher is still very active, just not here.

Vote:Zang

Cause lurkers are often scum.

[JDodge]

I'll get on the prods and whatnot later.

[TonyMontana]

And I thought my game was slow...

[Chronopie]

A day and a half since my last post...

2 posts, both by Tony, + one from the mod...

@Mod: Prod

Everyone

thx

[TonyMontana]

Total posts by players since game started:35

Posts by me: 13

Posts by Chrono: 11

Posts by everyone else combined: 11

Conclusion: Everyone but me and Chrono are lurking scum. Two scum teams, and one SK

[Chronopie]

That works.

I'm a miller. Please say that you're a multi-shot Day-Vig.