890: Cults of Darkness and Shadow - Game over!

[SerialClergyman]

Proposition: SC is amazingly good looking.

/confirmed

[SerialClergyman]

it might eventually create a double or even triple lynch.

Say what? My reading of the rules are that the point at which someone is lynched decreases every 3 days. So you need 12 incants for the first 3 days, 11 for the next 3 etc etc. So I don't know how you can get multiple lynches out of it?

There are almost certainly not 4 cultists in each cult, being an uninformed minority is stupid. Is that a serious question?

[SerialClergyman]

Ah, true.

That's a little open to abuse, isn't it?

Couldn't we wait till a guardian finds an innocent then have him unvoted and have everyone else with 1 vote on them?

[SerialClergyman]

Incant Seacore

Setup over analysis.
Already discrediting town reads and possible power roles.
Deliberate obtuseness over scum team numbers.
Discouraging wagons.

My standard play on D1 is to look for players who I think are town and then vote anyone else almost at random. That occasionally gets put on hold when someone scummy comes along.

In almost record time, Seacore is that scummy person.

[SerialClergyman]

Thanks for finding a replacement mod and ditching mass suicide. You're a star.

Seacore is still scum. I have no problems with the alliance style postings, and in fact if seacore is scum I think it's probably less likely that the others are scum.

But my problems with his play continue. As much as it's fine to talk about setup, it's information instead of analysis. It's looking protown without doing anything that's harmful to scum.

And your conclusions are anti-town. Asking people not to place votes is anti-town. We need votes for pressure and the worry that we're going to suddenly need to unvote on D1 is ridiculous. Votes create pressure and give us a record of concrete action and are extremely importnat early, certainly more so than worrying about not being able to unvote.

RVS Bandwagons are bad because we can't easily get rid of our pool of incants. I'm fine with regular bandwagons, that's how this game works.

I'm quite happy for SC to have voted for me. I think it's an incorrect decision, but his vote is based on his opinion, I'm definitely not trying to discourage people for voting for people they think are scum. But I'm passionately against the idea of a typical Random Voting Stage since it introduces too many incants too soon. Yes, you can just move them to less at-risk players, but that involves coordination and it's too open to "Oh my god, I'm so sorry, I was unexpectedly away and then you burst into fire"

This is an example of the logical disconnect, as well as two different reasons for the one policy. If the stated reason for being against RVS votes is that there is a liklihood there will be a mislynch, then that is FAR LESS LIKELY under this voting system. If the stated reason is because we lose a no lynch option and people can't unvote, then voting according to suspicions has the same problem. Either way - the position doesn't make sense and looks to me to be stifling attempts at creating pressure.

Saying town tells don't exist because there is more than one team is ridiculous. There are plenty of town tells that will be easy to spot (my favourite - drawing two arguing townies apart and moving the lynch elsewhere, for example). In addition, the way that you catch people who initially have a town read is precisely that they are only hunting one scumgroup. Just because scum are actively scumhunting doesn't mean they can actively scumhunt their own clan. When we're a few days in with a few flips, we'll be able to tell who is concentrating on one side or the other.

Asking the mod if the scum had 4 members was a facetious act. There was never any liklihood of that being the case and the mere process of asking (in thread, not via PM) was showy and unnecessary.

Finally, it's possible that the scum have power roles, but it is both unlikely in a 12-man setup and even if they do, they will be using their roles to combat the other scum group. So if a cop claims a guilty on another player, that other player will be lynched and the cop kept around to continue to search.

But more than anything, it's the overall tone. You're posting a lot more on setup info than you are looking for scum, you're eroding confidence in town tells and power roles, you're pushing hard to look pro-town without doing much and you've contradicted your original reason for being anti-voting.

Scum, imho.

[SerialClergyman]

semioldguy - what do you think of mipe?

[SerialClergyman]

Then we agree on essentially everything. Good man.

Any reason you didn't mention the whole vote the mod thing?

[SerialClergyman]

I'm asking because usually play like his draws a cooment from people who do a big summary. You didn't even mention it. Either we think alike and you aren't someone who goes after VIs, or you didn't want to go after this particular one. But your answer was a good one, and a town tell too.

[SerialClergyman]

Unincant Seacore, Incant mipe

One of SC's favourite scumtells - saying hyperobv town things like 'multilynching and having them all flip town is bad.

[SerialClergyman]

Are you retarded, Or just stupid?

Willpostmoarl8er.

In answer to your question though, do you not understand that you can move incants from one person to another? Or were you just objecting to the fact that I unincanted before switching? Because if it's the former, re-read both the rules and the vote count just above your post and if it's the latter I was just trying to help the mod track the vote change, I try to do that because I think it's polite.

In other other news, did you just get prodded, turn up 15 minutes later with a wagon vote on someone for something that happened ages ago and then leave?

[SerialClergyman]

Hey Death, what do you think of Seacore?

[SerialClergyman]

Also,

Thus I don't find SC's buddying as particularly scummy. Although his doublestandards are.

You'll note of all the thigns I've attacked you for, I actually defended you from the buddying charges.

I have no problems with the alliance style postings, and in fact if seacore is scum I think it's probably less likely that the others are scum.

But either way, AFAIK Deathsauce is attacking other people for having double standards by attacking you and not me, rather than actually attacking me for buddying.

[SerialClergyman]

I don't have much time, I'm at work, but I wanted ot post about the mipe wagon.

If we were playign normal rules, mipe would be lynched by now. That's a little worrying, especially given he hasn't done much that would actually benefit scum, mostly just WTF moments. And given English is not his first language so some of his odder comments might be poor translations or similar, he's not as scummy as this wagon suggests he should be.

There is a lot of scum on the wagon, I'm sure.

[SerialClergyman]

Sure, noone would have hammered, but we have a wagon which has a majority of people on it in what, a week? 7 out of 12 people all vote him? I don't like it. It looks to me like the easy wagon. And he's not alone in his lack of scum hunting. It doesn't feel right.

'a lot' means both scum teams. As you guys point out, I couldbe getting thrown by the mechanics, but such a huge wagon so quickly looks to me like most scum are hiding out in it. Plus he has all the standard lynchbait characteristics - won't defend himself properly, posts weirdly etc.

I think the more people on the wagon, the more mipe is likely to flip town and the harder it will be to work out who the scum on the wagon are.

To that end

unincant mipe, incant data.

[SerialClergyman]

Yes. I like having one attempted scumlynch and one policy lynch.

[SerialClergyman]

Alright, my bad.

unincant, incant mipe

[SerialClergyman]

I doesn't look to me like he's in a hurry to lynch someone, just that he is happy with the mipe lynch. I get that policy lynches that are 'tacked on' are useful for the town, but I'm not convinced about it in this case. Mipe is clearly scum, why are people so hesitant to just lynch obvscum?

[SerialClergyman]

Just lynch mipe. Easy D1 lynch, good chance of flipping scum - lets not do anything to cut down on the town too early.

More votes please.

[SerialClergyman]

Magua, I don't understand. Are you saying you don't want to lynch mipe now and want him hung out as a night kill target, or that you don't want him lynched without a double lynch, or what?

[SerialClergyman]

Don't put words into his mouth, I'm waiting for him to clarify what he meant.

[SerialClergyman]

Some thoughts:

mipe claimed that he could resist death and investigations and investigate himself. The only way we could have externally tested it is having someone try to investigate or kill him.

In my view, it seems likely that the scum have one guardian. That was why mipe could claim those powers. The investigation was going to be faked and the other stuff came from guardian protection.

So that means there is a darkness guardian out there, and possibly a darkness goon. If that's the case, I imagine one is on the mipe wagon and one isn't. If we have 2 members in the cult, there is a guardian by himself looking hopeless. If we have 3 members, there's one NK-immune and investigation immune goon around.

[SerialClergyman]

3 mafia with a power role does seem unlikely, I take your point. No need to rule out 3, but 2 is the logical deduction.

[SerialClergyman]

In a way we're limited in information because mipe was so clearly scum. It's quite irritating.

DeathSauce - could you elaborate on Magua and mipe? What about your reread caused you to take back the accusation?

[SerialClergyman]

Wow, game got slow.

I echo SB in asking why you think Chaco is town.

And where's the buddying? Aside from the fact that they agree each other? Is it a sign of scum buddying to town or scum teaming up on town?

[SerialClergyman]

Magua, do you care which scum team we lynch today?

[SerialClergyman]

That's a little weak, to be honest. One of the better scum tells I've found in multi-scum setups is selective scumhunting, so going after the group that is already weakened for no particular reason is not particularly the best.

Having said that, I am tryign to work out if I'd prefer to aim at Darkness and eliminate a kill, or aim for shadow and keep them trying to cross kill.

The lack of night kill last night from Shadow means in all probability we have a confirmed town somewhere. If we managed to find and lynch the last Darkness member, we'd have 9 members going into night. That means, assuming no more protections, we'd have 8 members with which we'd have to find 2 scum. This isn't a slam dunk, but it's not a bad scenario, especially with one confirmed town in the mix not to mention potential blocks or defends from other power roles.

If we kill shadow today, we'd have 9 members going into night. If we mislynched the next day, we could concievably have 4 members left the next day. It becomes very swingy and dependent on whether the scum teams can hit each other.

Plus there's the question of which we're more likely to find - since we have mipe flipped, we can look at people who were unwilling to lynch him and since we have the Seacore kill we can look at who would havel ikely seriously thought Seacore to be scum.

So I'm thinking with this town and this start we should look to finish off Darkness. We have a better chance of finding the last darkness member today and I like halving the night kill total.

To that end, I thought your point about Seacore was excellent, but unlike you I'm going to vote discode because he wasn't on the mipe wagon, was on the Seacore wagon and was scummy throughout D1.

Vote DisCode

[SerialClergyman]

There is no case against me apart from the fact the person I replaced was a lurker/anti-town player. He didnt do anything

scummy

, so please unvote me.

Dramonic, In a sense I agree with this but I wouldn't mind a bit more fleshing out of ideas from you.

[SerialClergyman]

WOw, that's totally true. I got DisCode and Data mixed up. Data was genuinely scummy D1, Discode was not. My bad.

Ugh.. I was happy with my vote too.

In fact, fuck it, I'm still happy with my vote because he still was on the Seacore wagon and off the mipe wagon.

Faraday - do you think there's an element of self-interest in your discouraging people looking off mipe's wagon given you're one of the 4 people who weren't on it? What do you think of Magua encouraging voting people off the wagon when he was one of those four as well?

[SerialClergyman]

I didn't find him scummy on D1, since the extra information of mipe's scumflip and Seacode's town flip and Darkness kill, I now think he's likely to be scum, yes.

I'm not questioning whether or not there were intentions to vote him, I'm asking whether the specific practise of discouraging looking there is because you think it's likely to be an innaccurate assumption or if you are discouraging it for some other reason?

[SerialClergyman]

Hello, I've totally left this game in the dust because another game I'm in is going at 200%.

Will re-read and try to post tomorrow.

[SerialClergyman]

Had a quick read of Snow Bunny's criticism.

Darkness --> Seacore.
Shadow --> ??? Blocked.

If that person was blocked by a scum mate, then Darkness must have had 3 people on their team plus a power role. This seems to me almost impossible.

There's also no reason, if there was a Darkness guardian left by himself, for that guardian to protect anyone else. All he'd be doing is denying investigations on possible enemies and saving townies. Not exactly pro-scum behaviour.

So we know that the person who was saved was saved by a pro-town role.

What I was incorrect about, is that it is POSSIBLE that Shadow attacked the remaining Darkness member who was saved by a pro-town guardian. That's the ONLY way in which the protected person last night could be scum.

Now, when I first made those statements I hadn't considered it as thoroughly as I have now and I didn't think about the above scenario, but I think you'd agree it's unlikely, and so the person protected is very likely to be town.

So yes, I didn't think about it hard enough. I ruled out that the person protected was Darkness protected by a scum buddy, I didn't rule out that the person protected was Darkness protected by the town. If you think that's scummy I can't stop you but given the complex nature of the setup I can only say it was a minor error - I stand by the fact that that person is very unlikely to be scum.

I can't get through the walls, will try to post tomorrow.

[SerialClergyman]

Snow Bunny - explain what the slip was and what faction I am please.

[SerialClergyman]

In assuring (assuming? or being assured?) that there was a town PR, and I'm Darkness.

The only way that makes sense is if I am a Darkness Guardian who protected SOMEONE OTHER THAN MY SCUM GROUP last night, or if I'm a Darkness Guardian and have a scum goon who I protected successfully last night.

Explain to me why I as darkness would protect someone not of my scumgroup and I'll say you have a point. Until that happens, I think it's a stretch.

I'm also finding Faraday townie but he's pushing me as scum which is less than useful.

Out of everyone, Magua makes the most sense, I think.

Dramonic, who is scum?

startransmission, how do you rate your play so far this game?

[SerialClergyman]

Snow - I ruled out a Dark-protected kill because there's NO REASON FOR DARKNESS TO PROTECT ANYONE.

I didn't rule out the possibility of a double kill on Seacore, but I'd have no way of ruling that out if I was town or if I was Darkness. But the lack of flavour and the fact it'd be odd of the mod to not indicate that it was a double kill (how would you decide which came first) makes me think it's unlikely.

So yes, a town player like me can perfectly well assume that it wasn't Darkness who protected the Shadow target from getting killed. It's a totally reasonable assumption to say that Darkness wouldn't protect non-darkness because there's zero motivation to. The only thing I assumed that I shouldn't have was that that target was town, when there is the chance that a town-PR targeted a Darkness player by mistake and saved him from a Shadow kill.

[SerialClergyman]

If Darkness protected their own then they have 3 members and a power role. 2 scum teams of 3 each with power roles seems unlikely, as I discussed earlier in the day.

I think it's much more reasonable to assume a scum team of two with 1 PR, thus Darkness didn't have any Darkness to protect. And with their partner dead, a now solo Darkness guardian had no reason to protect anyone last night.

[SerialClergyman]

I know why DeathSauce is wagoning me, I'm not 100% sure baout Faraday.

I remember making one strong attempt to push off the mipe wagon - it looked to me to be very suspicious that 7/12 people skyrocketed onto the mipe wagon. I thought that perhaps that was an indication that a lot of scum had jumped on an easy target and started to push particularly tough. Then mipe did his ridiculous claim and I switched right back on without a word from anyone else in between.

Some things to remember - there are day talking scum in this game. I wouldn't need to derail the wagon, I could have coached him to do it himself or similar. I also could have coordinated his fake claim so it didn't come directly after I tried to derail his wagon. Were I scum with him and planning with him, the timing of our actions doesn't make sense.

Also - I left my wagon on Seacore in order to go to mipe. I thought I caught something early on Seacore, but I recognised a much better wagon pretty quickly. At the time I left it, the wagons were just about equal. This is not the actions of a sucm partner. If anything, it was more likely I was scum with Seacore and left his wagon to go to the easy lynch. I even started to defend Seacore, specifically against allegations of buddying, which I wrote off as null.

So in short, I attacked mipe early, got off Seacore when it was still a genuine wagon and actually defended him - this is some way distant from the picture painted of me. Not to mention that were I able to daytalk with him as my scum partner, there's no explanation for the clumsy derail/back on wagon business.

Now - onto the game at hand, Chaco, what do you think of startransmission? And vice versa?

Faraday, if I wasn't scum, who is?

startrasmission, why would you say that the Chaco wagon and the semioldguy wagons don't count as 'lesser' wagons when they both ahve two incants each?

[SerialClergyman]

dramonic is town, Magua probably as well. Convince each other you're town so we can hunt someone more worthwhile.

Heliograph - what's with the snow_bunny-centric nature of those questions?

Faraday, my vote

was

horribad, nothing much I can do about it now. Got two players with similar names mixed up. Mind you - I still voted the one that made them ore sense according to wagon analysis.

Having said all that, it's sort of like Snow Bunny's criticism, there's not much I can say to it other than shrugging if I get lynched for it, so unless you think there's something I've left unturned I'm just going to press on and look for a scum lynch.

About 6 million people have said they find snow bunny either dicey or scummy but she has no votes. I'm going to start a wagon, and I'm going to offer free cookies* if anyone is inclined to join me. Unlike Faraday and to a lesser extend DeathSauce, I don't get that she's actually interested in finding out whether I'm scum or not, rather is just happy to sit behind her 'slip', despite it being utterly unconvincing to almost everyone else.

*cookies will be limited to 5 and may or may not actually exist.

vote Snow Bunny

[SerialClergyman]

Faraday is also almost certainly town, my meta of him as scum has him playing quite differently.

[SerialClergyman]

At the risk of having it appear that I am defending her, I have to say that I find the Snow Bunny wagon pretty underwhelming.

What do you mean by this? What's wrong with defending people you have a town read on?

[SerialClergyman]

Uh oh... quick! hide this line from Chaco!! Razz

I lol'd.

Nothing, but I'm not saying snowbunny is town. After reading back through on iso I found her posts to be... not scummy. That's probably what I should have said. This is my first game with these mechanics, so my wording is suffering. She may well be part of a scum faction, but I'm not seeing it enough to cast a vote. Futhermore I'm watching her wagon grow for reasons that don't really compel me.

Not knowing is a reasonable state of mind to be in, but 'defence at a distance' is epic scummy. I don't want to be seen to be defending person X but (defends person X) is just an off dynamic, it's not very townly.

What are the things you are genuinely convinced of? Anyone who is town or scum? Any theories of the game? I find myself unable to find much definite in your posts.

[SerialClergyman]

I'm wondering if it's worth getting the person who protected him to claim.

If noone claims then he's obvscum whose partner doesn't want to expose himself. If someone claims and they are faking, we'll have the scum team on a platter. If someone claims and they are not faking and it was a town block, we have two PRs exposed for nothing.

Either way, I completely believe the claim and so

vote Semioldguy

[SerialClergyman]

Faraday - what are you mulling over exactly?

[SerialClergyman]

Just seems odd to say that you believe the claim, you think he's scum but you don't see a vote.

Out of curiosity, Snow Bunny, did you happen to miss recent events?

[SerialClergyman]

Does SC = me?

[SerialClergyman]

In conclucion, I believe SC slipped and he's Darkness.

Hmm... I can see a SC/SOG Shadow team. I had the impression SOG was backing up SC regardless the slip.

I was just checking to make sure.

[SerialClergyman]

Snow_Bunny have you anything to say on the claim...at all?

To be fair to SB:

Oops, it seems I missed the last posts of the previous page.

I'll go with the claim for now. It hasn't been CC (though I can't see how a claim like that can be CC in this game), and if no one claims to have protected SOG, then we'll have something. Hmm... I can see a SC/SOG Shadow team. I had the impression SOG was backing up SC regardless the slip.

[SerialClergyman]

I'm here, I'm just limited in what I can say. I've got Snow Bunny attacking me for a slip that means I must be Darkness which is rubbish. She also decides that when someone else looks like being likely Shadow then I must be Shadow with them. When this is pointed out, she just says oops and goes back to her original proposition.

Then on top of that, I have DeathSauce, who apparantly thinks it's more likely that a scum would randomly declare being town in order to try to get soemone lynched. He's pushing for my lynch as well, despite there being a fakeclaiming cop in his mind.

Then finally Faraday beleives the claim but is unprepared to do anythign about it, and was definitely hesitant when the claim first came out, which I called him on. He's now settled for attacking a player using essentially the same reasoning I used at the start of the day, and not being prepared to vote for semi.

So yeah, kind of apathetic about how this day has gone on.

In my opinion, the scum team are almost certainly balanced. I don't think a cop is nearly as powerful as a guardian for a scum team. I DO believe that Darkness has a guardian. Therefore, I think shadow eitherh as 3 goons or the same setup. I don't see why SOG would attract a protection - in fact, he almost definitely attracted an investigation.

I think it is EXTREMELY UNLIKELY that a town guardian protected him and much more likely that a scum guardian did.

[SerialClergyman]

Snow Bunny, I'm drunk so who knows if it's you not making sense or me understanding you, but explain why Darkness has 3 members including a power role or why Darkness would protect a townie. If you can do either, you earn 10 points from me.

[SerialClergyman]

Wow, so frustrating.

I'm a town guardian. I protected dramonic last night.

Dramonic, In a sense

I agree with this but I wouldn't mind a bit more fleshing out of ideas from you.

I suck at Breadcrumbs and blatantly stole this way of writing it from Hoopla in Commie Mafia.

Dramonic can only be shadow and I personally feel that is unlikely based on his interactions D1. I think Dramonic is essentially confirmed town for me.

It's EXTREMELY unlikely in my mind that there is ANOTHER town guardian that is protecting SOG. I'm 95% sure he's scum. SnowBunny, for all her powers of thought, apparnalty thought a protown power role was impossble when that fit her 'slip' perfectly. I don't know if that's scummy or bad play but it's enough to make me finger her as likely scum.

But the lynch today is SOG. Somebody vote so he can't switch at deadline please.

[SerialClergyman]

...

Are you not paying attention or just made a mistake?

You should be incanting SOG, not dramonic.

[SerialClergyman]

lol good man.

[SerialClergyman]

OK, so Heilograph is either scum or TOTALLY uninterested in the game apart from his own neck. He is a top pick for mipe's partner.

Heil - maybe look above a bit where there are claims and important things going on.

[SerialClergyman]

Wow, way to take out a PR with you. Someone hamme him ffs.

[SerialClergyman]

Hey guys, well played.

I lost a lot of mental strength when mipe got lynched. As was pointed out, I tried twice to derail his wagon with no success, usually because he's post again hehe.

So facing a seperate kill faction, unknown cops and then a town utterly suspicious of me, I couldn't summon the mental fortitude to really try to silver tongue my way out of trouble, and I thought I'd go for a bit of a hail mary claim that was actually pretty bad in hindsight.

So sorry I didn't put up more of a fight guys, but our team got done very early, town did very well to knock us off so quickly.