890: Cults of Darkness and Shadow - Game over!

[semioldguy]

1. There was only one death last night, so a either shadow or darkness was blocked. I doubt that a cult group would protect a townie, thus it was a town guardian who made the right choice.

It had to be Shadow Cult that was blocked as Darkness' kill went through.

2. Semi being protected by town makes no sense for the same reason.

Why exactly does it make no sense for town to protect me?

3. Semi is obviously in the Shadow cult. His partner protected him, and the kill they chose was blocked by an astute town guardian.

Why is this 'obvious' and why couldn't I have been the night kill target who was blocked by an astute town guardian?

I don't really understand how your result makes you think I am more likely to be scum, especially considering the cult you think I am a part of didn't have a successful kill last night meaning it likely that someone was protected from the kill from that cult. I am confirmed having been targeted by protection last night from your own investigation.

I'm wondering if it's worth getting the person who protected him to claim.

If noone claims then he's obvscum whose partner doesn't want to expose himself. If someone claims and they are faking, we'll have the scum team on a platter. If someone claims and they are not faking and it was a town block, we have two PRs exposed for nothing.

This makes little sense. Basically you are saying that someone doesn't claim it's because they are scum, but if someone does claim two town power roles are exposed for nothing? I think you answer your own concerns as to why town wouldn't, and shouldn't, want to claim.

Either way, I completely believe the claim and so.

Well, how does the claim implicate me as scum?

I'm gonna have to go with Start's claim on this, as I was already suspicious of Semi.

What about his claim makes me more suspicious?

And I'd rather not have a Town Guardian outed, not this Early in the game.

Agreed.

[Percy]

The room begins to hum, resonating with the pure light streaming from the midday sun. Seven points are now lit, and you all feel the pull towards the centre a little more strongly.

Incantation Count

semioldguy - 3 (Chaco, SerialClergyman, startransmission)

SerialClergyman - 2 (Deathsauce, Snow_Bunny)
Heilograph - 2 (Magua, Faraday)
Snow_Bunny - 2 (semioldguy, Heilograph)
Chaco - 1 (dramonic)

The Ritual will take only 4 Incantations to complete at 6:00pm Friday the 1st of January (site time).

An extra day has been added to the next deadline due to NYE. dramonic has been prodded.

5 Incantations are currently required to complete the Ritual.

[Faraday]

I prefer a Heliograph or Serial lynch over Semi, in all honesty.

I still think it's as likely it was a town guardian, since he looked reasonably pro-town day 1 iirc.

[Snow_Bunny]

This day is dragging way to much. Let's lynch SC, or SOG.

Mod: Is the votecount correctly? Does SOG have doublevote?

[Faraday]

Also i want to hear more from dram, he's been quiet lately.

[semioldguy]

I don't have a double vote. You should only have one vote as far as I know.

[Faraday]

Semi-open game guys. C'mon. Mipe was lynched, remember.

[Heilograph]

@mod

who are the 2 people voting for snow bunny?

[Percy]

Count was right, names were not. Heilograph and semioldguy are currently incanting Snow_Bunny.

Obviously, semioldguy is not a doublevoter, and doublevote mechanics are not in use in this game.

VC edited, apologies for the confusion.

[semioldguy]

@Mod, could we get a prod on Deathsauce?

It would also be totally awesome if the people voting for me were around or something instead of disappearing as soon as my V/LA is up.

startransmission was on site and posting last night, but not in this thread. SerialClergyman has been around quite a bit on site elsewhere the past two days as well. There isn't a whole lot to catch up on in here, shouldn't take long or much effort.

Are my questions too difficult?

[DeathSauce]

I'm here, sorry, Christmas was busier than expected.

[DeathSauce]

OK, I'm in the obvious minority here, but I don't believe the claim.

It was made for basically no reason, he instantly gets all "let's double lynch" as soon as a few people begin believing the claim, there are too many other possible scenarios as to why there was only on N1 kill. I'm saying the claim was BS.

More Serial votes please. Or Start, I'm OK with that too.

[dramonic]

Back from vla. Reading up.

[dramonic]

OK, I'm in the obvious minority here, but I don't believe the claim.

It was made for basically no reason, he instantly gets all "let's double lynch" as soon as a few people begin believing the claim, there are too many other possible scenarios as to why there was only on N1 kill. I'm saying the claim was BS.

More Serial votes please. Or Start, I'm OK with that too.

On the other hand, considering getting caught in a lie would halve his scumteams potential for a win, I see no reason to spit out a fakeclaim now. However, the problem is that his claim doesn't really tells us anything. Semi got protected. Whoopdedoop...

[SerialClergyman]

I'm here, I'm just limited in what I can say. I've got Snow Bunny attacking me for a slip that means I must be Darkness which is rubbish. She also decides that when someone else looks like being likely Shadow then I must be Shadow with them. When this is pointed out, she just says oops and goes back to her original proposition.

Then on top of that, I have DeathSauce, who apparantly thinks it's more likely that a scum would randomly declare being town in order to try to get soemone lynched. He's pushing for my lynch as well, despite there being a fakeclaiming cop in his mind.

Then finally Faraday beleives the claim but is unprepared to do anythign about it, and was definitely hesitant when the claim first came out, which I called him on. He's now settled for attacking a player using essentially the same reasoning I used at the start of the day, and not being prepared to vote for semi.

So yeah, kind of apathetic about how this day has gone on.

In my opinion, the scum team are almost certainly balanced. I don't think a cop is nearly as powerful as a guardian for a scum team. I DO believe that Darkness has a guardian. Therefore, I think shadow eitherh as 3 goons or the same setup. I don't see why SOG would attract a protection - in fact, he almost definitely attracted an investigation.

I think it is EXTREMELY UNLIKELY that a town guardian protected him and much more likely that a scum guardian did.

[Snow_Bunny]

I'm here, I'm just limited in what I can say. I've got Snow Bunny attacking me for a slip that means I must be Darkness which is rubbish. She also decides that when someone else looks like being likely Shadow then I must be Shadow with them. When this is pointed out, she just says oops and goes back to her original proposition.

Trying to discredit me won't change the fact that you slipped.

In my opinion, the scum team are almost certainly balanced. I don't think a cop is nearly as powerful as a guardian for a scum team. I DO believe that Darkness has a guardian. Therefore, I think shadow eitherh as 3 goons or the same setup. I don't see why SOG would attract a protection - in fact, he almost definitely attracted an investigation.

I think it is EXTREMELY UNLIKELY that a town guardian protected him and much more likely that a scum guardian did.

If you believe Darkness has a guardian, why you rule out such guardian was the one who protected Shadow's NK?

You know, after reading some of your old posts, you have shown some certainty about Darkness' actions. Like this one.

I have a strong feeling you are Darkness scum, and I wouldn't be surprised if you are Darkness guardian (and maybe you're the one who protected SOG, who could be your partner). Yeah, yeah, yeah, rant all you want about the setup not being fair or balanced, I don't care about that.

Also, as you pointed out yourself, selective scumhunting is a good scumtell in these kind of games. And you are intent in doing so (even if it's at your own faction, maybe trying to create some sort of wifom situation for later).

So yeah, I'm quite happy with your lynch.

[Faraday]

OK, I'm in the obvious minority here, but I don't believe the claim.

It was made for basically no reason, he instantly gets all "let's double lynch" as soon as a few people begin believing the claim, there are too many other possible scenarios as to why there was only on N1 kill. I'm saying the claim was BS.

More Serial votes please. Or Start, I'm OK with that too.

Eh, IDK. Why don't you believe it? I guess if his scumbuddy was going to be lynched it *might* be possible but that's very ballsy and definitely puts him out there for a probably counterclaim.

Then finally Faraday beleives the claim but is unprepared to do anythign about it, and was definitely hesitant when the claim first came out, which I called him on. He's now settled for attacking a player using essentially the same reasoning I used at the start of the day, and not being prepared to vote for semi.

The claim doesn't change ANYTHING really. It's as likely he was protected by a town guardian as he was a scum guardian, and I think stuff like this will sort itself out during the nightphase anyway.

The reasons for voting semi are actually really bad. Why is he not likely to have gotten protection? Did you not think he looked fairly pro-town day 1?

[SerialClergyman]

Snow Bunny, I'm drunk so who knows if it's you not making sense or me understanding you, but explain why Darkness has 3 members including a power role or why Darkness would protect a townie. If you can do either, you earn 10 points from me.

[semioldguy]

Snow Bunny, I'm drunk so who knows if it's you not making sense or me understanding you, but explain why Darkness has 3 members including a power role or

why Darkness would protect a townie

. If you can do either, you earn 10 points from me.

Can I steal her 10 points?

Reasons why a scum guardian might target someone that isn't scum; (1) To aid his claim later as to not have to lie about his targets; (2) If they see someone who is likely to be investigated and they want to keep the person from being investigated or potentially cleared. I hadn't originally considered the second reason until your post mentioning that you thought I deserved an investigation.

If you believe that Darkness has a guardian and likely only two members, then the guardian can't target his scum buddy because there isn't one left. If he targets someone, it is likely from one or both of the reasons above.

Another reason why Statransmission's claim was really bad, it helps scum to eliminate players who could have been my guardian last night. For instance, if I were trying to figure out my guardian, I can eliminate the three of you voting me, because as town you wouldn't be likely to incant the player you just protected (if you aren't town though let me know because then all this logic can be thrown out the window). A guardian can't protect itself, so that already narrows it down to 6 out of 10 players. If scum know they didn't do it themselves and are part of those six players, then they can narrow it down further.

[semioldguy]

So I did some re-reading and noticed something.

Incant: Startransmission

His claim makes even less sense, and has a few contradictions.

On day 1 I got a mild town read from Semi, whereas I got a neutral/scum read from DD. But since you mention it,

Unincant, Incant: Semioldguy

So on day one he had a mild town read on me. It isn't unheard of to investigate players you have mild town reads on, but I would definitely like an explanation for this. This isn't my main problem with his claiming though.

1. There was only one death last night, so a either shadow or darkness was blocked. I doubt that a cult group would protect a townie, thus it was a town guardian who made the right choice.
2. Semi being protected by town makes no sense for the same reason.
3. Semi is obviously in the Shadow cult. His partner protected him, and the kill they chose was blocked by an astute town guardian.

Now this thought process didn't ever follow for me before, but makes even less sense now. If he was leaning toward a town read on me, then why is it so unbelievable to him that a town guardian might protect me?

And like I said, I can't imagine town protecting semi, because that would mean scum protected town last night, and I can't wrap my head around that.

Again I don't know why he thinks it unreasonable for town to want to protect me when he himself was leaning town on me on day one. The extreme conclusion he jumps to is not congruous with his own statements/reads.

[Magua]

Nothing much has changed.

I agree with Serial that the scum teams are balanced.
I further believe that Darkness has a guardian.
I don't believe there are six scum.
Ergo:
I believe Darkness is a guardian and a goon.
I believe Shadow is a guardian and a goon, or three goons.

Since Shadow didn't have a night kill last night, either there is a town guardian, or there is a Darkness guardian who protected a townie. I do not believe there is a Darkness guardian who protected a Darkness goon, as I do not believe there is another Darkness goon.

Given all this, the line of thought that says "semi was protected, therefore he is scum" makes no sense to me. He could be scum -- not ruling that possibility out -- but if we remove the "was protected" line, then I'm not feeling it for today.

Looking over the last two days, SerialClergyman and I agree on a number of basic assumptions (as does apparently startransmission), yet SC and I come to exactly opposite ideas of what this means in regards to semioldguy, because SC jumps on the semi wagon almost immediately. If I can't get a Heilograph lynch, I would rather see SerialClergyman incanted than semioldguy.

All of that being said, I think lynching startransmission today is a really, really, really bad idea.

[semioldguy]

Now Magua makes sense, though I would prefer to hear from Startransmission before moving my incantation.

Also if Startransmission and Chaco have not posted by tonight, they will both have been inactive for 72 hours and be due for a prod.

[DeathSauce]

However, the problem is that his claim doesn't really tells us anything. Semi got protected. Whoopdedoop...

Exactly my point, it is a meaningless claim at a stupid time to make it. Additionally, why would you out yourself to say "I didn't find out anything?"

[startransmission]

Why exactly does it make no sense for town to protect me?

It's not impossible. But the chances that I and the town guardian and another scum team would all target you seem insanely lower than you being protected by fellow scum.

That's it really. Going with the odds. I have strong suspicions of Dramonic as well. That's mostly due to his lack of helpful scumhunting, and his buddying of you earlier in the day. It doesn't help that when I reread you in iso I was struck by how much energy you put into preventing Datadannes lynch.

OK, I'm in the obvious minority here, but I don't believe the claim.

What would a false claim like this at this point in the game accomplish? and if you don't believe me then it means I'm lying and therefore scum. So why aren't you voting for me?

[semioldguy]

The Datadanne lynch was bad. Policy lynches are bad. He was not scummy, just currently unhelpful.

You "playing the odds" as you call it is a horrible decision, and actually not playing the odds at all. It also falls under the gambler's fallacy. You are using known events to determine the likeliness of an unknown event. You targeting me and me being targeted by a guardian are known. Those things can't change and do not affect the probability of other events.

If you flip a coin three times, from the start you have a 12.5% chance that all three flips will be heads. However, if you already know that two flips were heads, then it's a 50% that all three will be heads. It isn't going to be less likely for heads to come up the third time just because it was heads the last two times.

You are applying this same logical fallacy to last nights actions. To call all three actions having happened when knowing none of them would be a very small percentage. But you already know with certainty what the first two actions were.

(1) You target me
(2) A Guardian targets me
(3) Scum targets me

OR

(1) You target me
(2) A Guardian targets me
(3) Scum targets someone else
(4) Another Guardian protects that same someone else

Now (1) and (2) are not random events, we know for sure these things had to happen, unless you are lying. So really only you know for certain. So we can remove those first two from the equation.

You are saying that:

(1) Scum targeted me to be killed

Is LESS likely than

(1) A second guardian targeted someone other than myself
(2) Scum also targeted that same player

Even if you are playing the odds, you are playing them wrong.

If we assume two members of the Shadow Cult, then from anyone's point of view we have approximately a 11.1% chance of being randomly selected by the Shadow Cult for a kill last night. It isn't even a certainty there is another guardian, but for statistical ease, let's just say there is. That would leave a 11.1% chance for someone to be targeted by a guardian at random last night (1 in 9, since the guardian cant target himself, and Seacore was not the target of a guardian).

I'll show you the math...

(1) You target me (100%) the probability of this happening is always, because we know that it happened
(2) A Guardian targets me (100%) same with this
(3) Scum targets me (11.1%) Assuming two Shadow cult that don't self target, there are nine others, including Seacore that might have been targeted

So lets multiply these all together, you can do it as fractions to show probablility. So we have 1.0 * 1.0 * 0.111 = 0.111

OR

(1) You target me (100%)
(2) A Guardian targets me (100%)
(3) Scum targets someone that isn't me (88.9%) Just subtract the chance of me being targeted from 100% to get the probablility of me not being targeted
(4) Another Guardian protects that same someone else (11.1%) The guardian has to target that specific person, so back to a 1 in 9 shot.

Again we can multiply. 1.0 * 1.0 * 0.889 * 0.111 = 0.098679

So you are banking on 0.111 < 0.098679? Sounds like playing the odds to me... or wait, no, you aren't playing the odds. Go go gamblers fallacy!!

Additionally, you have still failed to answer the first question I have put forth to you. Skirting around this further is intentionally wasteful of time. Time is something that is particularly valuable to the town in this setup. Please make an effort not to waste more of it than you already have by avoiding questions.

I'll repeat myself for your sake.

Why did you choose me as your investigation target?