/in-vitational 2 - Chosen, Karaoke - Game over! before 830
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I may or may not be a chosen.
I think the setup is breakable by mass claiming though. I would like your thoughts on the matter.
Assuming all town say the truth- There will be 2 chosen claims of 7. Scum will either
A) not claim chosen- impossible for them to win
B) Both claim chosen- 9 townies and 4 possibilities for scum=town auto victory.
C) 1 claim chosen and 1 not claim chosen- we get a 1/3 chance to auto win and a decent chance after that. I would have to do the math on it. But I think it is better than trying to play this normally."Against logic there is no armor like ignorance."-
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Where is this in the rules?hohum wrote:Sajin: You're obviously not aware that the chosen do not know they are chosen as such, which means you didn't get a town PM.
Unvote, Vote Sajin
I like where troll is going with this.
I sent a question to the mod."Against logic there is no armor like ignorance."-
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Incognito just told me that chosen do not know they are chosen but scum do. I thought the chosen knew. There goes my mass claim idea.
Thanks for the rules update. Appreciated.
I am willing to be the lynch but now instead of knowing I am not the chosen, I could be one. That sucks."Against logic there is no armor like ignorance."-
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I see why you think I was scum. Because I thought people would be able to claim chosen. But that does not indicate confused scum, or confused townie but just confused. Hohum was willing to take advantage of the confusion though. I like my vote.
My odds of being chosen are 2/7."Against logic there is no armor like ignorance."-
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Also, the only way to pursue the scum is to keep lynching. No lynching is bad.
If we ever hit a chosen we need to lynch every day. (besides some scenarios like 4 up 1 scum etc etc)
If we no lynched before we lynched a chosen we put ourselves at disadvantage.
Therefore NLing before we get close to endgame can only disadvantage us."Against logic there is no armor like ignorance."-
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OMGUS would be me voting troll, he was the first voter. I was confused I agree.
I assumed I was NOT told when I got my PM and that I was told in the duration of the mods 5th post when he stated chosen have now been selected.
I read my PMs carefully. I understood I could be chosen and did not know at the time I was sent the PM. I did not understand that I would never know."Against logic there is no armor like ignorance."-
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Scien wrote:
Heh. Thats a slightly good point. Something I didn't think about at least. However it is still leaning a bit towards the black and white mindset I think. You are suggesting that we should be afraid of that scenario enough to completely ignore one of the town's win conditions?Sajin wrote:If we no lynched before we lynched a chosen we put ourselves at disadvantage.
Could you explain why you think this?
Well I say we try to lynch scum. Failing that we have a failsafe.
I could show it by math but I am lazy. That and this thread moves FAST."Against logic there is no armor like ignorance."-
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Town.hohum wrote:
That's a lame-ass reason for a vote. Of course I'm going to take advantage of your scumslip. Who wouldn't?Sajin wrote:Define what you think is OMGUS then.
To me thats voting with no other reason other than you voted me.
I have reason. My accusation is that you were taking advantage of my confusion.
/confirm vote."Against logic there is no armor like ignorance."-
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Alright this is kind of simplistist but lets say we are trying to win just 1 way in each example:Sajin wrote:Scien wrote:
Heh. Thats a slightly good point. Something I didn't think about at least. However it is still leaning a bit towards the black and white mindset I think. You are suggesting that we should be afraid of that scenario enough to completely ignore one of the town's win conditions?Sajin wrote:If we no lynched before we lynched a chosen we put ourselves at disadvantage.
Could you explain why you think this?
Well I say we try to lynch scum. Failing that we have a failsafe.
I could show it by math but I am lazy. That and this thread moves FAST.
1: We try to lynch scum. They kill each night (worst case scenario for us, in this example). 9 players means we lynch at 9 7 5 and 3 players. 4 lynches to catch 2 of 9.
2: We try to save chosen. From a purely mathmatical standpoint we have to avoid lynching 2 people of 7 (scum are indifferent when it comes to these odds). This means that scum playing to make this harderest on us would not kill and we would have to lynch correctly 5 times of the 5.
So looking at the individual objectives: It is easier to win the standard way by trying to lynch scum. But, now lets say we played to win condition 1 for 1 night and we lynched a townie non chosen and a townie non chosen was killed. We have decided to reevaluate our chances and strategies.
1 Lynch scum: 7 players 3 lynches to catch 2 of 7.
2: Lynch non chosen: 7 players, need to lynch 3 times correctly of 3.
This is still in favor of trying to lynch scum over non chosen. So we go for the scum lynch, fail...but now scum have a choice. They can no kill or kill (they could earlier as well but this is the best practical point feel free to do math on others).
1a Lynch scum/scum killed someone: 5 players, 2 lynches to catch 2/5. 40 of 33 percent=2/5*1/3 = 2/15 odds.
1b Lynch scum/scum no killed: 6 players 2 lynches to catch 2/6 then 1/4
2/6*1/4 = 1/12 odds
2a Lynch non chosen/ 1 of 3 1 time. 1/3 odds
2b lynch non chosen scum no killed- 2/4 2 times 2/4 then 1/3 or 1/6 odds."Against logic there is no armor like ignorance."-
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Failure for preview. Anyways. My point was that pursuing the best math odds strategy (and I am well aware that reads increase these odds, but base math odds are a great starting point as its likely to be somewhat equally increased to account for reads).
The best math strategy is try to string up the scum until 2 failed lynches that were on non chosen. After that odds tilt to close enough to even to warrant pursuing the alternate win condition.
If we ever lynch a scum its easier to try and lynch the other scum then it is to try to lynch the non chosen and only evens out in a 1 scum 2 chosen 1 non chosen scenario.
Any questions or problems on the math feel free to ask."Against logic there is no armor like ignorance."-
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So qwints wants to vote me based on a read then proposes a "random" lynch. Contradictory much?
Why would I claim something in my initial post that would hurt us unless we all went through with the plan? Also, this is a strawman argument at best and misrepresentation at worst. Your setting up the statement of forced-town win to explain why I did not act a certain way.Re-reading, I realized that Sajin's original mass claim proposal suggested that all townies tell the truth. This suggests that townie-Sajin would never false-claim. It does make me wonder why he did not explicitly claim VT instead of leaving it hanging if what he believed were true.
Sajin - why didn't you claim in your initial post if you believed you had a forced town-win?
@Scien can you comment about my math?"Against logic there is no armor like ignorance."-
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No. Nailing one scum is worth more than not nailing chosen (vanilla town lynch).qwints wrote:Fully random lynching is not a good optionbecause lynching one chosen hurts us much more than lynching one scum helps us. But in limited situations, such as a D3 w/ both chosen still alive and 1 scum dead, it could prove useful."Against logic there is no armor like ignorance."-
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I have yet to see your case. Way to change the subject.hohum wrote:You attempted to tear down the wagon (which existed) a couple of pages back. It's impolite at best and anti-town at worst to tear a wagon down before any useful information can be garnered out of it.
The fact of the matter is Sajin was doing a pretty good job of dropping other scum tells (which is the reason I'm tunneling on him) until you interceded on his behalf. You mooted any pressure that was on him by bitching about our votes on him. Frankly I don't care how scummy you think I am, because the feeling is mutual."Against logic there is no armor like ignorance."-
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Strong-arm tactics involve taking a certain point of view or stance (In this case- your belief I am scum) and then attacking all the people that do not agree with your viewpoint in an effort to coerce them to your point of view.
Do you agree this is what your doing?"Against logic there is no armor like ignorance."-
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hohum wrote:
And why do you think he's referring to you at all? I'm attacking you for a different reason.MiteyMouse wrote:
I wasn't defending him....hohum wrote:
Not agreeing with me is one thing. Actively defending you is another. I'm attacking those (rightfully) who take the viewpoint that I am scum because I think you are scum. Those who line up against me SHOULD be suspect.Sajin wrote:Strong-arm tactics involve taking a certain point of view or stance (In this case- your belief I am scum) and then attacking all the people that do not agree with your viewpoint in an effort to coerce them to your point of view.
Do you agree this is what your doing?
When did I refer to ANYONE defending? That was all you sir."Against logic there is no armor like ignorance."-
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Following all the points you made in the above quote pyramid would mean your implying he was defending me. Feel free to correct that, instead of making vague statements of what you did NOT do. Tell me what you DID do.
Swearing does not make your arguments any more convincing, a tip for your text game as scum.
Regardless, Hohum: Given the setup do you agree scum have a strong motivation to strong-arm (no pun intended...maybe)?"Against logic there is no armor like ignorance."-
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Yet you voted for me on it and have not removed your vote since. Yet you claim it generated useless banter. Are you calling your own remarks on this topic "useless banter"? If not, what useless banter did it generate?hohum wrote:
Sorry. I do sort of miss pooh but I need to use this one for at least a week, then I'm likely going to switch back.PZ wrote: Avatar changes make me dizzy.
So you state its a fact I did not know chosen recieved a PM. Thats different from what you said before.
The fact that he was unaware that the chosen in fact does not know as such indicates that may not have received a townie role PM. I still contest that this is more of a scum tell than everyone seems to think it is and it was worth discussing. Certainly any scum tell (no matter how minor) on page one is worthy of a vote.
When did I ever say it was random? BLATANT MisrepHe then responded (post 19) eventually with an OMGUS under guise of supporting the idea of a random lynch.
Fair point. How is questioning something anti scumhunting though? Am I not allowed to question the posts of the infalible hohum?He even later stated that he can see how his early posts could be interpreted as a scum tell (post 41) but attempts to reason that latching on to early scum tells is in of itself a scum tell (post 41, my response in 61, his in 62). The notion that I dare question him over a possible scum slip is anti-scum hunting (quite a large scum tell) at best, and downright ludicrous at worst.
Quotes please. Your the one that brought OMGUS to the table. You have a meta of doing this as scum and town though.
He would also rather argue semantics over the definition of the term OMGUS than acknowledge he's being super over-defensive (48, 57, ).
WIFOM and a little bit of scum gaming in 50.
Feel free to point out any strawman arguements I have made. You just state I am strawmanning and WIFOMing without pointing out when it happened. This is why I asked for a case. Empty accusations. Also, I would love to see anyone else willing to go along with the I am lurking implication. Does anyone think I am lurking besides Hohum?At this point his activity level drops off of a cliff before he reappears in the thread in order to go on a strawman rampage.
Again, why the random? I have pointed out legitimately scummy activites you have done and have essentially admitted to.General observations about his behavior:
1) He'd rather lynch randomly than do any scum hunting whatsoever I called him on this early on and he completely failed to even acknowledge that fact.
More defense of qwints! Feel free to quote and explain how I distorted a position. Thats suppossed to be in your case you know. In fact I think you have distorted my own position numerous times in this very post.2) He continually distorts qwints' and my own (and everyone else's) positions on various matters.
Because questioning you is not scum hunting? Mechanics are important but to say I have been excluding scum hunting is ludicrous3) He talks about game mechanics from time to time in order to appear helpful but hasn't really made any effort to do any real scum hunting of his own.
Your posts have been "Sajin is obv scum, lynch :Repeat" since page 1 or so. I would not call that a response to anything nor discussion.4) Virtually every other response to me since about page 4 has been "I don't see your case, you're full of shit" even though I have sitting here discussing it with him and others since, oh, page 1 or so. [/area]
I haven't decided who is likely sajin's scum partner but right now PZ and MM are my top suspects.
As a separate point- How is calling someone likely town a scum tell? I see the motivation for scum to do it, but it makes just as much sense for town to do it."Against logic there is no armor like ignorance."-
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Hohum may have done many things, but adhom is not one of them.Cojin wrote:Yay questions for me.
1. I find cautious voting to be as important as analyzing votes, scum can day talk, dont misstepp into a quick lynch on a choosen.
1) Explain why you stated analyzing voting patterns was vital, then questioned why someone thought people not voting was bad.
2) What do you think of the hohum-Sajin argument? Who's misrepresenting whom?
3) Do you think MM's process of elimination style is a valid tactic?
2. Sajins idea of a mass claim and the argument that insues makes me feel sajin is acttualy makeing the mistake, what i gather from it is that he recived a pm telling him who the choosen were, and as a result assumed the choosen got one too. But at the same time it could be a misread but i also belive that hohums argument and adhomen are almost like panick at being cought, i will have to remain netural on both sides for now.
3.I dont get how it could work for him, only scum could gaurantee town, and valid town claims usualy mean said roll is dead.
Don't fence sit. If you believe I got a PM stating who the chosen were then it follows I MUST be scum regardless of what hohum posted. Don't just rehash the possibilities of the arguments from the last few pages. In fact all 3 of your answers here are rehashing content from the last few days."Against logic there is no armor like ignorance."-
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I think I adequately responded to everything you said. If you think I am misrepping feel free to point it out.hohum wrote:I have over and over again. You're either misinterpreting or blatantly misrepresenting (again) what I was saying. I'm not going to sit here and argue with you because you're wrong.
If you think I am wrong that should give you MORE cause to argue, not less."Against logic there is no armor like ignorance."-
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Well I respectfully disagree. I think going after scum is better than trying to not lynch chosen. How can I be sure that scum did not save a push on one of the chosen for such a viewpoint? I think my math shows how weak pursuing the chosen win condition(as opposed to the lynch scum win condition) is in its exclusivity. At least while so many non chosen are alive.
In short I cannot support one of your votes based on that viewpoint as I think thats not the best way for town to win. Your going to have to convince me that your wagon is the scummiest. Not just the least likely to be chosen. Or show my math wrong."Against logic there is no armor like ignorance."-
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Because I see this line of reasoning an excellent scum excuse for not pursuing someone they think is obvious scum.Zorblag wrote:Really, the issue that Troll be defending here (for reasons which Troll no understands as Troll would think that it be obvious and not need defense) be that not lynching a chosen and lynching scum no be mutually exclusive and the scum's ideal play has nothing to do with the town having to pick one win condition or the other to pursue (which be a problem with your math; Troll can go over specifics if you like.) Troll be saying that we should attempt both at once rather than focusing on one exclusively. Troll no be quite sure what your qualm with that be.
-Zorblag R`Lyeh"Against logic there is no armor like ignorance."-
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Troll- You seem to think Hohum and I are town/scum or chosen/scum.
If we are town/scum- Why not go through with picking out of us with your method?
If we are chosen/scum- If we hit the chosen first we get the scum the next day for a 1 scum of 5,which is better than the odds of winning by the chosen method anyways, or more optimally we nail a scum, and we enjoy the 1/7 scum odds with the alternate win condition still intact.
Essentially, unless you think hohum and I are both town then there is no reason to not be on one of our bandwagons, Troll."Against logic there is no armor like ignorance."-
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Because of what you said about miteymouse and you rational (where you summed up everybody in one post) and the above quote. Correct me if I am wrong.Zorblag wrote:If both Sajin and hohum be town and neither be scum then Troll thinks there no be any good reason to think that scum should be on either bandwagon. If both be town and one be the chosen then there do be reason to think that there would be an above average chance of scum being on that wagon."Against logic there is no armor like ignorance."-
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Troll I am confused.
1- If you think someone is not likely chosen then that must mean you find someone more likely to be chosen.
2- If you think someone is more likely to be chosen, then you MUST think someone is more likely scum to get chosen reads.
3 If you think someone is more likely scum, why are you not voting that person?
If there is a flaw in this logic, please address the number. Thanks."Against logic there is no armor like ignorance."-
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Hohum is the best lynch for today, reasons:
Noise
Not answering questions
Tunneling
strong-arming
taking advantage of confusion
@Troll- I think I have the best case on the table. I feel like your sidestepping my case and using the chosen mechanic as an excuse to not vote for who you see as the most scummy.
I think there is a case on MM (apologies for the gender thing btw, feel free to update your profile) but I do not see it as better target than my current vote. If you wish to try and convince me MM is scummier feel free. But stop the not likely to be chosen BS.
I have posted math on this, I have posted reason on this. Lynch scum not lynch unlikely chosen. I feel like you ignore both even though you say you do not."Against logic there is no armor like ignorance."-
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Meta me. As town I always say- If I was scum I would be doing XXXX. And so I am doing YYYY. I do the same thing as scum though.
What is wrong with attacking playstyle. If he is trying to force the lynch of someone in a game where there are lynchees that screams scum to me.
Regardless I would perfer a lynch of myself or hohum today by far over anyone else. It gives the most information. Choseness is irrelevant."Against logic there is no armor like ignorance."-
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The fact that I want to lynch scum does not mean, that everyone else is trying to lynch scum. The fact that I am ignoring the chosen mechanic (for today anyways) does not mean others (read:the scum) are.
Thus the fact that I want hohum lynched based on a reason I do not believe in but I think he does makes sense to me.
I am not sure if I explained that well enough. But there you go."Against logic there is no armor like ignorance."-
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Sajin Mafia Scum
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How is it hypocritical to assume someones motives are different then your own?
Is that not exactly what I SHOULD be voting for? Because I think the path to victory is easier then others make it out to be? Because someones motivation is DIFFERENT than my own?
Why would you want to take a 3 point shot when your down by 1 and you have a easy lay-up?"Against logic there is no armor like ignorance."-
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Sajin Mafia Scum
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Papa Zito wrote:
I'm voting Cojin, Scien. You're welcome to join us.Scien wrote:You claimed motive doesn't mesh with your action. There has to be either another, or additional motive to why you didn't have a better target at the time of vote removal.
us? (goes back to look at votes, sees zito is voting by himself).....us?"Against logic there is no armor like ignorance."-
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Sajin Mafia Scum
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Sajin Mafia Scum
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I think I have answered all of those points before with the exception of C. There is a large difference between your points and hohums. Hohum was charging forth blindly not caring about the other side of the arguement. I was attempting to acknowledge the other side of the arguement. It does not mean I agree with it nor accept it. Take that point of view or leave it. I really don't care.
Mitey that statement seems fairly scummy to me. Why would you perfer it not to be you?"Against logic there is no armor like ignorance."-
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Sajin Mafia Scum
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I said I saw how others could see it as scummy. When did I change my mind about my actions? Given the information I had I thought I was making the best play to my win condition. At first I thought "how the hell could you be seeing this as scummy?" because I thought the claiming idea was an incredibly beneficial thing to do. When I understood the attacks on me were for rolefishing that did not make sense to me either. I finally understood that he thought I was confused scum. And yes I was able to picture that situation and I acknowledge its feasibility but certainly not its actuality.
(for the record I have a 3-0 record as scum on this site, I will be happy to link it all if you wish, if you think I made a scum slip because I am noob scum etc. Mostly for hohum but I doubt he would even read it anyways. Nor would he care about this point. Ah well.)
Furthermore- I think lynching out of me and hohum is the best situation. Posit his meta and his inability to tunnel/vote/pressure anyone but me. If he is scum lynch him. If he is town, lynching him removes a vote scum would have anyways in a LY/LO situation and lynching me gives him a new direction for his tunneling (hopefully anyways). Going a different direction is only going to force our hand at a later date. (and yes I did change my stance on hohum, at first I thought he was being opportunistic. Now I just think he is being hardheaded as either alignment)
Thus I really "don't care" because I think it is in towns best interest to vote hohum today and failing that, me. Well that and I really don't like psychoanalysis debates. I don't find them fruitful ever and find them boring when reading them from an outside perspective and am annoyed when I am the subject of them. Shrug."Against logic there is no armor like ignorance."-
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Sajin Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2663
- Joined: April 7, 2009
- Location: Lost Within Myself. Find me. Please.
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Sajin Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2663
- Joined: April 7, 2009
- Location: Lost Within Myself. Find me. Please.
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Sajin Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2663
- Joined: April 7, 2009
- Location: Lost Within Myself. Find me. Please.