open 894: near vanilla (game over)

[shiki]

helloo

[shiki]

alsoalsoalso

do you (skygazer) think you'd be more likely to take this line as a scums than, say, jupiterxv or projectry?

(applicable to other non-yous also that's why i ask)

[shiki]

line?

like the approach from t3 elimination on

[shiki]

if you mean the no killing, i actually just had a scum game where it apparently would've made more mechanical sense to no kill and i missed that entirely, so i think if i were scum here there would be more bodies and more clears

hmhmhm

could you link this game pretty please

[shiki]

Titus, tell us what to do!

if you were jailkept how d'you want to proceed here / what do you think the solution is et cetera

I thought someone was going to volunteer to be limmed? If you want that to be me, fine.

2516
2531

effectively the same thing

but regardless there is still a point at which, even following protocol, that the game has to be solved, right?

[shiki]

but if by approach you just mean like how i'm approaching day play, i think my play would be kinda similar regardless of alignment i guess

i think i asked this very poorly

how like, town of salem expert, does jupiterxv feel to you?

[shiki]

if you mean the no killing, i actually just had a scum game where it apparently would've made more mechanical sense to no kill and i missed that entirely, so i think if i were scum here there would be more bodies and more clears

hmhmhm

could you link this game pretty please

viewtopic.php?t=92050

bonus points: my partner got elimmed D1, i was dealing with autoloss basically immediately on D2, so lots of similarities to what scum are going through this game

thankyou!

[shiki]

i still think jupiter feels town

i haven't played ToS in years

i haven't either - or at least haven't played more than a game or two at random points in years

just the sort of approach i would heavily associate with that game here

[shiki]

from the scums i mean

[shiki]

sigh i wish it would default to like 200 posts/page

[shiki]

you might know this already but after the t=xxxxx part in the url, you can put in "&ppp=200"

unless ur sayint its annoying to have to do that every time

mostly for everyone else because i end up with a lot of terrible pagetops like above because of posting a followup that is then unconnected to the previous post because 25 post cutoff

[shiki]

but if by approach you just mean like how i'm approaching day play, i think my play would be kinda similar regardless of alignment i guess

i think i asked this very poorly

how like, town of salem expert, does jupiterxv feel to you?

why do you bring up town of salem...

because i have played a very large amount of town of salem in my life at one point and the approach from the scums here felt like one i would associate with someone thinking in that way

as opposed to like, 'new to social deduction games', ya know

[shiki]

oh if you're asking if im a town of salem expert i am not, i moved from tos -> mafia.gg -> actual forum mafia -> back to mafia.gg -> back to forum mafia -> one game of Tos -> over here now

is there a reason you've avoided engaging with the mechanics here?

[shiki]

because i don't know jack about mechanics lol
i would if i could but i'm honestly as clueless as a braindead goldfish here

if bellaphant was a scums here and you were in her position what do you think possible endgame is?

like, not shooting as a scums two nights ago, when she was a likely jailkeep target, to prevent someone from being cleared, when she herself could be false guiltied by the no kill anyway, for instance

[shiki]

wait shiki do you think i'm scum because i don't have a mechanics brain????

nope not at all i am trying to get you to engage with the mechanics / wondering why you have not / wondering if what is presented lines up with actual thoughts regarding

because really, maybe you are correct for not engaging i am very bad at things and make a giant mess repeatedly, right, so maybe i should just not, not faulting that

but! you already posted 2531 as i pointed out to bellaphant earlier so actively sorting you here good

[shiki]

i think if i were bella i'd try to hunt doctor, kill doctor
or otherwise pray that someone else in PoE was doctor and just keep my kill on titus every single night for the rare chance that titus roleblocks doc and dies

right but we know for sure that bellaphant did not do the first if she is a scums

so do you think that makes it less likely she is the scums? or do you think she'd think the second approach was more likely to succeed?

[shiki]

i still think its just project

quite possible yeah

hard to see angle but once again it'd be a super difficult position to play i guess so just waiting to die doesn't seem impossible from scums

[shiki]

it's also possible that t3 preemptively coached the final teammate into no killing

no kill leading into yesterday and potentially into today don't actually make that much sense tho for most players though

[shiki]

right like

mmm

[shiki]

maybe we just have a really GOATED doctor

and who yesterday

would you say was playing as though they knew

someone was saved as opposed to scums no killing

if anyone

[shiki]

also shiki are you trying to pr hunt here????? can we like not

the scums know who they shot at

also can we not with the violence stuff please

[shiki]

if we jail me again tonight scum just no kills anyways

but this is good, no?

[shiki]

hmhmhmhmhm

[shiki]

if we jail me again tonight scum just no kills anyways

but this is good, no?

not if its used to justify killing me later? it doesn't rlly glean much info, just delays the inevitable

if you're town the scums would have to confirm you at some point right?

[shiki]

incentivizing scum to no kill again gets us closer to auto win

^^^

[shiki]

it's actually maybe towny for dannflor to suggest because confirmed skygazer kinda hmmmmm for scum!dannflor

[shiki]

it's actually maybe towny for dannflor to suggest because confirmed skygazer kinda hmmmmm for scum!dannflor

eh maybe

hmhmhm

[shiki]

i'll go with consensus bc i know im widely townread and i know thatd make it kinda questionable to yeet me

but i do yearn for the escape

wish i was at like 1% instead of 5% so there wasn't that hint of

'please kill me now so i don't have to do this for four more days before being killed just the same'

[shiki]

right if you're a scums it's deadended just the same

[shiki]

out would be to both not be killed and then also not be jailed consecutively

[shiki]

but like you pointed out taking away your out does give an all clear to the scums if you're not the one

[shiki]

mm, bellaphant just seems so likely to me,

[shiki]

will try to clear head and reread very soon

[shiki]

assume you are who she wanted to be clear if someone was cleared

[shiki]

tonight aim is definitely most likely tho

[shiki]

but have to eliminate skygazer for that to be relevant, so! yeah

[shiki]

will still reread

[shiki]

?

[shiki]

at least show your work

[shiki]

please

[shiki]

and also i talked abt project in the past but im too lazy to type it again

the thing is

you haven't talked about projectry

[shiki]

like this is the closest:

generally i just don't see project's play as town- i've talked about this before and a day ago he was talking about how he was a newbie so his behavior is okay or something along those lines and that just kinda set me off. also poe

otherwise you've just said projectry was poe over and over

[shiki]

and these two day one i guess:

are you willing to find quotes? ive always found project's posts to be generally towny if not a bit hollow

project - kinda towny idk, they're chilling! i can't reemmber much asides from good stuff

[shiki]

did i just forget to post about that???? im pretty sure i did what

i mean if you did you could point me to it i guess but there's nothing i see that is like,

here i think these interactions are partnered because...

[shiki]

trying not to think too too hard about people suggesting alternate eliminations today

would have to be willing to fully bet game on skygazer being town and then just treat her as confirmed if wanted to take that path i think

rejail bad but in theory treat as confirmed town has significant upside if she is in fact town

obviously disaster if she is not

[shiki]

however black seems like the type of player to help compensate for her scum partners (since that streak is like an Actual Thing yk) so it could be black also defending her newb partner

i have like, ~thoughts~ on this but i am not sure how game related they are

[shiki]

is everyone afraid of projectry endgaming or something?

[shiki]

like how does everyone see that playing out? and if not, then, uh,

[shiki]

projectry maybe(?) the second most likely scums to me right now? like there are aspects that don't make any sense to me but maybe on balance that's where projectry would be,

but there's also downside in jailkeeping projectry tonight if projectry is town compared to other options

and! importantly, even if not jailkept and there is a nightkill projectry very unlikely to be the one left standing days later

[shiki]

and if projectry is town and eliminated today then have to either jailkeep skygazer again which has significant downsides - gives up chance at outright winning the game that eliminating skygazer and jailing elsewhere comes with - or! treat skygazer as confirmed town from here on out which autoloses to all scum!skygazer worlds

[shiki]

gives up chance at outright winning the game that eliminating skygazer and jailing elsewhere comes with

right because the only situation in which jailing skygazer again is good is if skygazer is a scums

and if skygazer is a scums then!!! elimination better

[shiki]

if we treat skygazer as definitely absolutely 100% town then eliminating elsewhere gives us smaller pool if we're correct better maths sure

and if so i guess show me that skygazer is definitely absolutely town because for it to work would need everyone to accept as fact

[shiki]

(which like, it's so so difficult for it to be a surety based simply on situation and how advantageous it would have been for scums to act)

[shiki]

idk i would use it certainly

kinda think there’s pretty tangible benefit

[shiki]

it's actually maybe towny for dannflor to suggest because confirmed skygazer kinda hmmmmm for scum!dannflor

eh maybe

hmhmhm

also up until half a page ago you had not obviously claimed not Doctor

hmmmm

[shiki]

lolhammering

VOTE: skygazer

how could you hammer me like that?!? elim this 2morrow

do you do you do you

think

this:

also up until half a page ago you had not obviously claimed not Doctor

was an actual factor in how dannflor was weighing things there?

[shiki]

VOTE: skygazer

i know i have done a pretty terrible job of encouraging instead of discouraging if you're town here but could you maybe talk about how you are viewing the game at this point?

it is like, part of what worries me is that it has felt like you identified titus as a potential win condition and have since just played towards that ,

[shiki]

Are we sticking to the plan? Skygazer is E-1. Should I hammer or wait?

I see my name is being throw about. If it needs to be me to get us closer then so be it, but I’ve yet to be targeted by Titus so me next would be off plan.

would also like to know where your head is at

[shiki]

VOTE: skygazer

i know i have done a pretty terrible job of encouraging instead of discouraging if you're town here but could you maybe talk about how you are viewing the game at this point?

it is like, part of what worries me is that it has felt like you identified titus as a potential win condition and have since just played towards that ,

(most obvious counterpoint to me is the waiting but the waiting doesn't really make much sense for anyone save maybe dannflor and outworlder? or well, skygazer i suppose)

[shiki]

[shiki]

idk i can see the logical threads there

hmhmhm just feels like,

were you a doctor and jailed,

was dannflor's assumption then that maybe you were the nightkill target? or?

[shiki]

My assumption was that we should only kill in the pool of people have made it obvious they aren’t the doctor

i guess it just seems somewhat dismissable to me because the above but idk how much i would expect you to have thought about the mechanical implications there

pedit: oh hm okay and that's probably consistent with other things

[shiki]

idk how much i would expect you to have thought about the mechanical implications there

like i didn't in real time only later, so!

[shiki]

that was kind of the unspoken reason why i thought dannflor's logic made sense but i'm terrified of talking about the doctor and putting my foot in my mouth somehow

well jailing you again still wouldn't make any sense right the scums know who they shot

[shiki]

VOTE: skygazer

i know i have done a pretty terrible job of encouraging instead of discouraging if you're town here but could you maybe talk about how you are viewing the game at this point?

it is like, part of what worries me is that it has felt like you identified titus as a potential win condition and have since just played towards that ,

This game got a lot less fun for me when you repped in. Like this is actually the first time you've engaged me without just blanket reading me as scum for....???

I can't see much of a reason to make a risky play when as far as I'm aware we can just do the boring thing. We keep having very little new data without nks, I'm struggling for new info. Nothin has massively changed my reads: sky is town, I wasn't sold on Aisa scum, wagonning new people risks outing the doctor. Personally and from wanting the town to win, low engagement just feels win/win?

idk i feel like there were a lot of separate things i tried to engage you on at various points, outworlder for one, but also yeah that seemed a potential to me i know the discouraging thing is something i need to work on because regardless of alignment you posting is desirable and i am sorry for making the game less fun

there's so much data to me - i'm not saying we shouldn't do the boring thing it's just that right now the town's being Town is super good and informing jailkeeping decisions also very good to me,

[shiki]

town's

[shiki]

outworlder for one,

right like this felt like maybe you were doing the creating space to work within thing,

but also if you are town and were correctly scumreading outworlder then wanted you to show because to me that's one of the potential great weaknesses to entire view of game,

but then was seemingly abandoned (potentially partly because end of day post? unsure)

[shiki]

as free as the wind blowing down the road

[shiki]

…

[shiki]

that’s the extent of my thoughts

[shiki]

Let the game begin I guess.

I’m trying to get my head around what that kill means in terms of the doctor, but not sure whether that is wise to say. Do we openly discuss or is it better to keep quiet about the doctor to not direct scum?

openly discuss who the scums is and why

[shiki]

(if that invokes openly discussing anything else though sure go for it)

[shiki]

involves

[shiki]

The questions I have arising from that kill relate to discussion of the doctor.

well the options are a) the doctor did not protect titus or b) the doctor was jailkept or c) schadd let the scums roleblock which i would fully support

[shiki]

regardless of which the doctor is not the scums

[shiki]

who is the scums though? and how would you like to go about finding them right now?

[shiki]

Is there anyone alive that has already been targeted by Titus? I don’t think there is, but need to check.

nope

[shiki]

I want Doc to claim because I have a hypothesis about the night actions and it radically changes my reads if I'm correct.

more words

[shiki]

just assume i am town regardless

would be a doomed doctor claim from scum!afrayed knott and playing is shiki the doctor or just a town not going to help with finding the scums

[shiki]

frustrating that we finding way to unsolve the game across the board tho

[shiki]

yesterday all we needed was titus + doctor + town were sure of and tada game won

[shiki]

idk guess maybe i simply don’t understand anything because obviously did not want to play yesterday the way we did in general

but! unimportant from current position

[shiki]

but at least now everyone has to do the thing

[shiki]

going to just forget everything i thought before today because was solving the game as it was not pure

[shiki]

With a doctor claim, provided the claim is outside of the strong town pool, can we whittle it down (each in our own minds) to 4 town reads, leaving two suspects?

If we can collectively agree on two strong town reads (Dann and Shiki (agreeing with 3082). Then the doctor claims (this relies upon the doctor not being Shiki or Dann), that takes it to 3 strong town. Then every other town individual knows they are the 4th town, which leaves two possibilities.

Then we just focus votes on the final two.

Is that something that works or helps, or is it too risky to reveal the doctor?

also from your point of view part of this approach would have to be show everyone else you are town (unless you’re about to claim doctor) otherwise, uh

[shiki]

or to expect everyone to be able to find that on their own

which i have not at this point

[shiki]

who do either of you think might be the doctor if not me and why

[shiki]

projectry first please

[shiki]

to answer the above

[shiki]

Do we think scum has been purposely no-killing or more likely they have been repeatedly targeting Titus, but Titus has been protected?

no reason to ever no kill target titus is free

last night the scums bet against town rather than on themself regardless

[shiki]

With a doctor claim, provided the claim is outside of the strong town pool, can we whittle it down (each in our own minds) to 4 town reads, leaving two suspects?

If we can collectively agree on two strong town reads (Dann and Shiki (agreeing with 3082). Then the doctor claims (this relies upon the doctor not being Shiki or Dann), that takes it to 3 strong town. Then every other town individual knows they are the 4th town, which leaves two possibilities.

Then we just focus votes on the final two.

Is that something that works or helps, or is it too risky to reveal the doctor?

Bro just legit regurgitated everything I said in 3077

Tbh because you post regarding doctor claim was separated from 3077, I didn’t even notice we’re saying the same thing. I think that tells you your read on me is wrong.

I think it’s fairly obvious I’m struggling to keep up or understand what’s going on here. I’m clearly not the mastermind behind all of this.

that’s fine i’m phone posting and also lost on dannflor conversation will read it back later and look into the things because yeah hard to keep up but! who do you think is the doctor and why

[shiki]

who do either of you think might be the doctor if not me and why

I don’t know who the doctor is. I’m not sure how you would work out who the doctor is?

well perspective things

hmm did you at no point before today think about it?

[shiki]

With a doctor claim, provided the claim is outside of the strong town pool, can we whittle it down (each in our own minds) to 4 town reads, leaving two suspects?

If we can collectively agree on two strong town reads (Dann and Shiki (agreeing with 3082). Then the doctor claims (this relies upon the doctor not being Shiki or Dann), that takes it to 3 strong town. Then every other town individual knows they are the 4th town, which leaves two possibilities.

Then we just focus votes on the final two.

Is that something that works or helps, or is it too risky to reveal the doctor?

Bro just legit regurgitated everything I said in 3077

Tbh because you post regarding doctor claim was separated from 3077, I didn’t even notice we’re saying the same thing. I think that tells you your read on me is wrong.

I think it’s fairly obvious I’m struggling to keep up or understand what’s going on here. I’m clearly not the mastermind behind all of this.

What makes it impossible for you as scum to not be able to keep up with the game? For the past like, what, 6 nights in a row now, scum has had no partners to talk to, only two real possible night actions to take (no-kill/shoot Titus), and no real ability to affect the game without losing since the past multiple days have come down to elimming JK targets and following PoE. There's no reason you can't be dis-invested from the game and scum, in fact I'd argue it's far more likely.

eh

it’s not like something has been masterminded here

the scums submitted kill titus for the twelve consecutive night assumedly thinking the odds on town disaster are better than the odds of me winning otherwise

[shiki]

Well I guess what I’m getting at is do people believe scum’s strategy has been smart or not?

If people do believe it’s a smart play, then I’d ask do you think it is likely that someone could pull this strategy off in their first ever game?

it isn’t like, by the book

i have no way to weigh ‘smart’ but it hasn’t been necessarily what i would expect from 9 on

[shiki]

who do either of you think might be the doctor if not me and why

I don’t know who the doctor is. I’m not sure how you would work out who the doctor is?

well perspective things

hmm did you at no point before today think about it?

Do you mean do I think anyone has hinted at it? I feel like I’m being stupid, but otherwise I don’t know how you suspect someone is the doctor or not?

well i think multiple living players have basically said ‘i am not the doctor’

[shiki]

who do either of you think might be the doctor if not me and why

I don’t know who the doctor is. I’m not sure how you would work out who the doctor is?

well perspective things

hmm did you at no point before today think about it?

Do you mean do I think anyone has hinted at it? I feel like I’m being stupid, but otherwise I don’t know how you suspect someone is the doctor or not?

well i think multiple living players have basically said ‘i am not the doctor’

based on posts they’ve made

so i wonder if you have not been looking for this throughout the game

like did you just start at daystart

[shiki]

both bella and jupiter were basically like "kill me" yesterday

I don't remember Bella being suicidal yesterday, huh?

If anything I think she's been consistently defending herself.

not ‘kill me’ but rather ‘jail me’

[shiki]

both bella and jupiter were basically like "kill me" yesterday

I don't remember Bella being suicidal yesterday, huh?

If anything I think she's been consistently defending herself.

not ‘kill me’ but rather ‘jail me’

I'm looking through Bella's ISO and I don't see this either, am I blind?

it’s there somewhere i referenced the post number at some point gimme a sec

[shiki]

or 12ish

[shiki]

2516

is the one i was thinking of

but that one works too

[shiki]

perspective was throughout really

[shiki]

which is fine and good want to help jailkeeper

[shiki]

But what does that say about Shiki?

I’m not exactly sure. Still trying to work it out.

hm

are there no aspects of my play you have thoughts on though? and are thus basing this on mechanics?

[shiki]

am i allowed to be miffed at titus

if you're town it's just as much on us if we aren't able to figure it out from here

[shiki]

What's bothering me is I can't work out if targeting Titus last night was a good or bad move from scum and then what that means.

Scum submitting kill Titus x 5 feels super level 0, but scum submitting kill Titus x the one time they felt she was going to jail the Dr and was right about it is obviously super good.

Outer tr-ing me when I've been fairly openly pushing him/there could be momentum on me is making me reconsider.

Is it just Jupiter? I want shisko to be clear because 9/10 times frayed knots claim comes from town, I think if it's dann then it's going to be Dann all the way to elo, project i just think is town.

it was a good move from the scums - like playing for town disaster makes sense in an otherwise terrible maths situations and town obliged

who do we think was most likely to play towards this is harder to determine

can treat me as clear without concern - if it comes down to me the scums and the doctor the game is simply won

and! (because i love

were i a scums...

logic

were i a scums i would have just gone for the win yesterday with some variant of 'the real doctor should claim game is solved titus + doctor + me just always eliminate + jail in the other pool because that is better odds from my position than, uh, this

[shiki]

i

could you walk me through

why you thought my 'pr hunting' or whatever yesterday

was unwise from your perspective

[shiki]

yesterday all we needed was titus + doctor + town were sure of and tada game won

i really did not want to eliminate skygazer yesterday.

i mean treat her as confirmed town would have simply won the game, so!

[shiki]

i don't wanna reveal who i think is the doctor. that'd be bad. i'm just saying i have a faint inkling

and idk it just seemed weird to me- you were just questioning someone else about who they thought doc was (or who seemed informed, at least) so it comes off to me as information that should not be collected. i think you're town but if scum is bad at mechanics i don't want to do the work for them.

why would that be bad to you right now? i'm not asking for the who just the why

[shiki]

if you're town i guess i don't understand what you process for solving the game has been the last few days

[shiki]

it is like, does that information not seem at all valuable to town to you,

[shiki]

and if not what do you make of other players outright asking for that information?

[shiki]

doc??? how would it be?

because then everyone is solving from correct perspective

[shiki]

i'm really afraid to say i don't even fucking understand my process for solving the game is either. i had some townreads but now they're just all gone i think my only concrete one is on you

that's my only concrete read too to be fair

[shiki]

doc??? how would it be?

because then everyone is solving from correct perspective

explain please?

if all of town know x is doctor, then everyone knows x is town and can base all of their assumptions on such

like yesterday another aspect of everything is informing the jailkeeper's decision as much as possible, who is safe to jail who is not safe to jail, aiming for most likely yesterday and so forth

[shiki]

i do know who doc is. it's me. jk

who do you think would submit a titus nightkill again despite needing to succeed last night or lose?

or even what do you think are attributes you would expect from someone who did do so?

like what position would you expect such a player to be in the game?

[shiki]

i don't wanna reveal who i think is the doctor. that'd be bad. i'm just saying i have a faint inkling

okay now i am asking for the who

[shiki]

[shiki]

What's bothering me is I can't work out if targeting Titus last night was a good or bad move from scum and then what that means.

Scum submitting kill Titus x 5 feels super level 0, but scum submitting kill Titus x the one time they felt she was going to jail the Dr and was right about it is obviously super good.

it is interesting to me that you have been thinking about worlds where scums targeted players other than titus at some point

not solely today but earlier as well, as i was talking to skygazer about yesterday

[shiki]

Outer tr-ing me when I've been fairly openly pushing him/there could be momentum on me is making me reconsider.

Is it just Jupiter? I want shisko to be clear because 9/10 times frayed knots claim comes from town, I think if it's dann then it's going to be Dann all the way to elo, project i just think is town.

we only have two eliminations left so scum!outworlder could count on momentum coming from elsewhere - if anything stance on projectry the townier one to me

like same reason scum!dannflor might townread you/projectry and push jupiterxv here right

[shiki]

as i was talking to skygazer about yesterday

or rather, attempting to talk to skygazer about yesterday

[shiki]

With a doctor claim, provided the claim is outside of the strong town pool, can we whittle it down (each in our own minds) to 4 town reads, leaving two suspects?

If we can collectively agree on two strong town reads (Dann and Shiki (agreeing with 3082). Then the doctor claims (this relies upon the doctor not being Shiki or Dann), that takes it to 3 strong town. Then every other town individual knows they are the 4th town, which leaves two possibilities.

Then we just focus votes on the final two.

Is that something that works or helps, or is it too risky to reveal the doctor?

this kinda towny to me tho because it is doing the solving for everyone thing

[shiki]

which i had to learn to do as a scums from my townplay it wasn't something that i just knew to do as a newbie scums

[shiki]

though, mm, also the approach i was pushing days earlier, so there is worry

[shiki]

and outworlder post as well

[shiki]

Then every other town individual knows they are the 4th town,

right this has been true since i got here - the other town individuals did not even need to know they are the 4th town before today simply that they were the third town

[shiki]

i have literally no idea how that quote ended up attributed to the wholly incorrect post

[shiki]

Then every other town individual knows they are the 4th town,

[shiki]

i have literally no idea how that quote ended up attributed to the wholly incorrect post

if it were attributed to the other post in which i had already previously quoted 3096 then maybe

but as is no idea

[shiki]

With a doctor claim, provided the claim is outside of the strong town pool, can we whittle it down (each in our own minds) to 4 town reads, leaving two suspects?

If we can collectively agree on two strong town reads (Dann and Shiki (agreeing with 3082). Then the doctor claims (this relies upon the doctor not being Shiki or Dann), that takes it to 3 strong town. Then every other town individual knows they are the 4th town, which leaves two possibilities.

Then we just focus votes on the final two.

Is that something that works or helps, or is it too risky to reveal the doctor?

Bro just legit regurgitated everything I said in 3077

Tbh because you post regarding doctor claim was separated from 3077, I didn’t even notice we’re saying the same thing. I think that tells you your read on me is wrong.

I think it’s fairly obvious I’m struggling to keep up or understand what’s going on here. I’m clearly not the mastermind behind all of this.

What makes it impossible for you as scum to not be able to keep up with the game? For the past like, what, 6 nights in a row now, scum has had no partners to talk to, only two real possible night actions to take (no-kill/shoot Titus), and no real ability to affect the game without losing since the past multiple days have come down to elimming JK targets and following PoE. There's no reason you can't be dis-invested from the game and scum, in fact I'd argue it's far more likely.

something about this post tho maybe

[shiki]

I wouldn't have just ploughed into Titus 5 times if I was scum? I would have either no killed for confusion or, I'd have picked off top trs knowing that Titus was jailing the lhf, (until sky. Wtf was that).

well no killing is just the same as targeting titus with less upside, right? but i guess it doesn't seem impossible that the scums in fact did not plough into titus five times just difficult to consider that to be particularly likely (though certainly more likely now that titus was successfully nightkilled)

Tbf, playing the 'if I was scum ' game is boring because, and I know you have zero reason to trust me on this, I 100% would've conceded by now. In fact the only thing that was my 5% doubt on sky was I felt she was the kind of person that would keep going.

i do trust you on this in a vacuum; like were that the situation in a hypothetical game we were talking about, sure

it's just that in this game specifically i can think of potential motivators for you not to do so, and i am not you and therefore have no way of actually weighing the impact those motivators would have on you beyond 'possible reason not to concede'

it's also arguable that targeting titus repeatedly is a semi-concession with upside, right,

like i am conceding or! i am suddenly in a somewhat favourable position

i mostly like the 'were i a scums' game because i am fully scumbrained regardless of alignment unfortunately

(which can be helpful as town at times but getting myself out of possibility space and into

but are these things ACTUALLY alignment indicative

can be very difficult)

Regarding the 'could set up new trs because we only need two elims', I get you, but I feel like the shift around would be more obvious? In the coalition game I just played, this did become obvious at the end of the penultimate day bit I missed it

i mean, dannflor on a very clear path there from the initial statement of you/projectry, right

[shiki]

I was going to say I still wasn't opposed to the Jupiter lim but then I remembered Titus is dead and if I'm wrong about the PoE we just lose.

yeah two elims cannot afford 'i am not opposed tos' here

[shiki]

Going with what I was just saying to shi, his sr on me looks the most opportunitistic?

is jupiterxv scumreading you? i guess i walked away from interaction mostly thinking had no reads outside of self and me

[shiki]

theoretically we could have more than two if doc shoots correctly tonight (and does not get shot)

but more than likely it's Melo tommorow.

if doctor alive tomorrow don't sleep

[shiki]

well obviously no sleep if save, because 5, but no sleep even if no save, because could then theoretically still get save

i kinda like playing at melo anyway because more town voices and! no quickhammers

but generally situation dependent

[shiki]

theoretically we could have more than two if doc shoots correctly tonight (and does not get shot)

but more than likely it's Melo tommorow.

if doctor alive tomorrow don't sleep

what did she mean by this

some people always like to sleep at 4

which would be unwise if the doctor is alive at 4 in my opinion

[shiki]

that's the part that was confusing me

how likely do you think it is that scums targeted a non-titus party the night before last or the night before that one?

[shiki]

if that were the case than either a) Titus jailed the target, unlikely given who she was jailing or b) Doc was never on Titus and miraculously guessing every NK target after N1

both are highly unlikely, so I'd say it's an infinitesimal chance that scum was targeting anybody other than Titus.

I'm not sure what the point of that question is though.

well titus could have jailed the target and then said she jailed someone other than her actual target right (unlikely in skygazer's case but the night before perhaps)

or doctor could have guessed the target and then gone back to titus and then not last night right

i guess the main two points were that, i was thinking about the likelihood myself and wanted your input and also! there's like potential perspective stuff from earlier in the game that can be applied if trying to look through that lens right; even start of day stuff with how you/projectry were viewing things right, as scums would have knowledge that town would not

[shiki]

Going with what I was just saying to shi, his sr on me looks the most opportunitistic?

is jupiterxv scumreading you? i guess i walked away from interaction mostly thinking had no reads outside of self and me

Jupiter started being like 'why is anyone tr ing bella' when shadow and I had a little conflict and then doubled down when you came in with me as your top Sus. That's certainly how it felt.

oh much earlier! sorry will go look at that interaction

it's hard to explain perspective i was working from at the time because it no longer exists but you weren't my top sus as much as my desired jailkeep target

[shiki]

you weren't my top sus as much as my desired jailkeep target

at least for three nights ago and two nights ago; last night additional factors i was trying to work through and then day over

[shiki]

i don't wanna reveal who i think is the doctor. that'd be bad. i'm just saying i have a faint inkling

okay now i am asking for the who

i think it’s you project or damn but i really am unsure.

why do you think it's unlikely to be outworlder?

[shiki]

but also why would skygazer think she or dannflor would be likely to be nightkilled

cause theyre towny

idk i thhink scum here wants to kill anyone who's confirmed or towny

still looking for opportunism re:bellaphant scumread (haven't gone back to look at the previous days yet as when you state it here you said you've been saying it for days) but! want to remember this happened

[shiki]

Because the situation I'm worried about is we go to Melo and scum either claims Doc before the real doc or CC's the doc to try and secure the last mislim. I don't think it's super likely for that to happen unless scum was super confident in their position going into Melo though.

hmhmhm, this would narrow the potential eliminations from 3 (the three non-doctors) to 2 (the two doctors) and! i assume(?) the real doctor would be able to show if asked to walk through various thought processes?

[shiki]

But it doesn't make sense? Half way through he's saying dead townies are bad for scum because theyd be used for info/clears and then he says he'd leave bodies across the board.

These two statements do not conflict. Their saying that he personally wouldn't have been aware of kills clearing the JK target and sent shots anyways. Obviously it is objectively bad for scum to be killing anybody but Titus in the situation that's been going on for the past few days.

It's self-meta, essentially.

it draws from like, different periods of time, in a weird way

like the time currently being discussed, of submitting titus again last night, at that point jupiterxv would have to know the clear potential

[shiki]

If the group think is to flip project, ok, but then can we look at Jupiter again? He has had so many passes for 'i didnt read that ' , 'i didn't know', it bothers me.

i would like to continue to looking at both! and everyone else! so much time yet

[shiki]

Because the situation I'm worried about is we go to Melo and scum either claims Doc before the real doc or CC's the doc to try and secure the last mislim. I don't think it's super likely for that to happen unless scum was super confident in their position going into Melo though.

hmhmhm, this would narrow the potential eliminations from 3 (the three non-doctors) to 2 (the two doctors) and! i assume(?) the real doctor would be able to show if asked to walk through various thought processes?

The "walk through various thought processes" part is negated by the fact that the literal only person Doc should have been targeting for the past six, possibly seven nights in a row was Titus. And if the real doc wasn't on Titus for some strange reason than they probably get limmed anyways because people probably just wouldn't believe them. This happened to me in a mini normal with an LJK who didn't protect me while I was an IC.

nono not with regards to night actions

just perspective through posting - like i do not think a scums here has been super good about maintaining a doctor perspective throughout in order to counterclaim if town get to take out the big magnifying glass - but if a scums thinks they have i encourage the claim i like to see good scumplay

[shiki]

Because the situation I'm worried about is we go to Melo and scum either claims Doc before the real doc or CC's the doc to try and secure the last mislim. I don't think it's super likely for that to happen unless scum was super confident in their position going into Melo though.

hmhmhm, this would narrow the potential eliminations from 3 (the three non-doctors) to 2 (the two doctors) and! i assume(?) the real doctor would be able to show if asked to walk through various thought processes?

The "walk through various thought processes" part is negated by the fact that the literal only person Doc should have been targeting for the past six, possibly seven nights in a row was Titus. And if the real doc wasn't on Titus for some strange reason than they probably get limmed anyways because people probably just wouldn't believe them. This happened to me in a mini normal with an LJK who didn't protect me while I was an IC.

nono not with regards to night actions

just perspective through posting - like i do not think a scums here has been super good about maintaining a doctor perspective throughout in order to counterclaim if town get to take out the big magnifying glass - but if a scums thinks they have i encourage the claim i like to see good scumplay

i guess they could hope town doesn't use the big magnifying glass? in which case, uh, everyone should use the big magnifying glass in this situation

[shiki]

Obviously it is objectively bad for scum to be killing anybody but Titus in the situation that's been going on for the past few days.

wait

can you walk me through this

[shiki]

sigh somehow i've lost ability to quote reasonably

[shiki]

Obviously it is objectively bad for scum to be killing anybody but Titus in the situation that's been going on for the past few days.

^^^

[shiki]

but also why would skygazer think she or dannflor would be likely to be nightkilled

cause theyre towny

idk i thhink scum here wants to kill anyone who's confirmed or towny

still looking for opportunism re:bellaphant scumread (haven't gone back to look at the previous days yet as when you state it here you said you've been saying it for days) but! want to remember this happened

sky gazer is literally dead

do you think, scums killed her? also why do you think those posts were of note to me?

[shiki]

but also why would skygazer think she or dannflor would be likely to be nightkilled

cause theyre towny

idk i thhink scum here wants to kill anyone who's confirmed or towny

still looking for opportunism re:bellaphant scumread (haven't gone back to look at the previous days yet as when you state it here you said you've been saying it for days) but! want to remember this happened

sky gazer is literally dead

do you think, scums killed her? also why do you think those posts were of note to me?

she’s dead because you guys killed her and also idk

my hands may not be entirely clean there but i did not vote for her (nor am i a guys);

[shiki]

idk how to answer questions about what scum thinks when they kill people or what scum would do cuz it’s like why do u think i would know

you aren't expected to know (unless you're a scums) but rather to theorize / make an educated guess / et cetera

because thinking about what scums might do or not do or what they might be playing towards or thinking might be helpful towards finding the scums, right?

and it's also helpful to everyone else who is thinking about those things; like collective knowledge and such, other players are certainly thinking about things differently than i am,

and! helpful for seeing how you are viewing things,

[shiki]

to shoot for doc first you'd have to guess correctly on who that is, and if you guess wrong than Titus gets a clear, narrowing down her JK pool. Even if you guess right and kill doc, you'd still risk Titus jailing you when you go to shoot her.

Depending on scum's position just shooting Titus every night and hoping she jails Doc eventually is far less risky, and yes, I'm aware that that does somewhat implicate me since I've been mostly free of suspicion the entire game.

but if you only submit titus you can't win as long as the doctor protects the jailkeeper and the jailkeeper does not jail the doctor (unless of course schadd granted the scums a roleblocker or strongman due to an impassioned plea?) so your only possible win condition is town going completely offbook... which well it worked out for the scums, so!

idk the concession with upside theory seems plausible to me

[shiki]

Sorry, shikj, feel I may have missed your pronoun at some point too.

i guess for the entity that is like, me, the disaster ball, i would prefer it

but if thinking of me as like, a person, and referring to me as such, she is fine,

idk

[shiki]

Concession with upside or scum just confident Titus would jail doc before them, either/or really. I don't think it's impossible for either Jupiter or Project to be banking on the latter since they both seemed to be out of the purview of Titus's PoE.

hard to see which scums would be so confident in this though? like my expectation of titus would have been that she would not go offbook,

[shiki]

I feel like you are missing that apart from sky, Titus did the level zero take two/three times.

Ugh, I'm just agreeing with out all the time now. Now I have to find another sr before Melo

right so scums in the level zero bracket could not count on not autolosing to being jailed

but then those not in the level zero bracket, it's like ???

like from dannflor's seat would just submitting titus over and over actually be better than giving clears at 8 and 6 and then nightkilling a clear at 4 and trying to win a 1v1? like in theory if he correctly guessed the doctor and all worked out that would have been a line open to him? so why corner self if not conceding with upside

[shiki]

right so scums in the level zero bracket could not count on not autolosing to being jailed

also autolosing to not successfully killing titus

[shiki]

guess there's always not seeing the line

as well as thinking upside line more likely to result in victory

just seems weird to me to consider it as like, the obviously most optimal line

[shiki]

I mean, consider the end results of both strategies.

Shoot Doc --> Shoot Titus would leave the remaining town with one or more clears that are mostly likely outside of the You/Me/Dann townblock. Scum likely loses from that position regardless.

In the scenario we're in the only clear we have is the doctor, who it's debatable should claim or not, and is potentially within the townblock described above, giving us less information to work with in this end-game. It's still a bad situation to be in unless the last scum is specifically one of Me/You/Dann, but theoretically more winnable than the other strategy if the last scum is in Bella/Jupiter/Project.

IDK, scum might not have thought this through as much as I have, I think the concession with upside theory is probably the most valid one.

unless i made specific read of titus 1v1 seems higher % to me

[shiki]

do you think bellaphants first post today

would be likely from someone

who had made specific read of titus?

[shiki]

do you think bellaphants first post today

would be likely from someone

who had made specific read of titus?

would like other opinions on this too i guess

[shiki]

I mean, consider the end results of both strategies.

Shoot Doc --> Shoot Titus would leave the remaining town with one or more clears that are mostly likely outside of the You/Me/Dann townblock. Scum likely loses from that position regardless.

In the scenario we're in the only clear we have is the doctor, who it's debatable should claim or not, and is potentially within the townblock described above, giving us less information to work with in this end-game. It's still a bad situation to be in unless the last scum is specifically one of Me/You/Dann, but theoretically more winnable than the other strategy if the last scum is in Bella/Jupiter/Project.

IDK, scum might not have thought this through as much as I have, I think the concession with upside theory is probably the most valid one.

the thing is, there should never be a situation where the doctor is the only clear

should theoretically have been very near zero

this where the read of titus comes in

[shiki]

do you think bellaphants first post today

would be likely from someone

who had made specific read of titus?

would like other opinions on this too i guess

this:

What's bothering me is I can't work out if targeting Titus last night was a good or bad move from scum and then what that means.

Scum submitting kill Titus x 5 feels super level 0, but scum submitting kill Titus x the one time they felt she was going to jail the Dr and was right about it is obviously super good.

is the post in question

basically coming into the day once i saw the titus flip none of my thoughts were - oh maybe the scums got titus - i am only somewhat familiar with titus we have played a few games together previously and this game thus far, by my general impression was that titus would be unlikely to go for hero play, especially since was otherwise trying to make everyone play the game in a safe way

but if the scums were to have had a specific read of titus that she would be likely to play it unsafe there, then!!

[shiki]

I think he slots in nicely to a lot of theories (the "concede with upside" theory that Shiki posted, for example)

hm, does that really seem like a likely thought process from a newbie to you?

[shiki]

and even the content he has posted today is regurgitated from what I said,

why do you think projectry's opening of today posts are more likely to have been scums reworking your posts rather than a mindmeld type of situation?

[shiki]

and even the content he has posted today is regurgitated from what I said,

why do you think projectry's opening of today posts are more likely to have been scums reworking your posts rather than a mindmeld type of situation?

will look at this more tonight when i get a chance but to me i guess at the time it did not feel like projectry was copying your homework

[shiki]

Here’s another thought:

In a world where OutWorldER is scum, is his best bet to take a shot at the doctor, making at least one clear in the lim pool, or would he rather take shots at Titus over and over *knowing* that the odds of him getting jailed before the doctor are pretty slim?

Logic also applies to me probably if that tickles you

to me taking the 1v1 would be the best bet, (like if you were a scums here what would you have done the night following my replace in?) but i am not sure how outworlder would feel about odds in do or die 1v1,

but also! it doesn't really matter what i think would be his best bet, but rather what he thinks would be his best bet which seems to be taking shot at the doctor from recent discussion

[shiki]

VOTE: OutWorldER

yeah i actually believe this makes the most sense rereading D1 and D2

it's funny to me because i wanted to ask you what you thought the clearing interaction for outworlder was earlier and then!

i'll have to look closely at when outworlder joined the black wagon and such and! if black/t3 were trying to get outworlder onto counterwagon

because outworlder had already made a case for that wagon right and then chose black

also added to my to do pile

[shiki]

? I've made it fairly clear that I just dont think Titus made good choices for town..I think Dan implied similar, I'm not sure how this is a scummy take?

i... don't know if i think that post was scummy - just that it was noteworthy and wanted others opinions on it - i could make an argument as to why it is scummy and i could make an argument as to why it is towny, like i said i am always scumbrained

and but so then anyway your thought upon entering the day certainly differed from outworlder's and projectry's (and dannflor's slightly later post re:outworlder and the path the scums took here makes a similar assumption - which is maybe a little hm to me as well)

right they assumed titus mistakenly jailed the doctor whereas you were thinking of levels and such

like even though there should not be a way to get there when mapping it out because multiple levels below are identical and thus lower level approach should have always been submitted from the jailkeeper side

there is a potential point at which the jailkeeper is perhaps intentionally targeting the doctor because a successful save wins the game just the same as a successful block and it may be easier to identify the doctor and thus the next level for the scums is the level zero play - to once again target titus

[shiki]

(and dannflor's slightly later post re:outworlder and the path the scums took here makes a similar assumption - which is maybe a little hm to me as well)

makes a similar assumption to that of outworlder's and projectry's, is what i meant there

[shiki]

What's bothering me is I can't work out if targeting Titus last night was a good or bad move from scum and then what that means.

Scum submitting kill Titus x 5 feels super level 0, but scum submitting kill Titus x the one time they felt she was going to jail the Dr and was right about it is obviously super good.

idk would have really liked outworlder to dive deeper into it i guess because there is clear difference between how outworlder was viewing the game at this point and how you were and so his thoughts could be illuminating towards either of your alignments but then kinda just handwaved it as part of greater townread on you, shrug

[shiki]

Maybe not that exact thought process but it doesn't seem wild that a newbie would just default to shooting the most prominent threat every night without putting much thought into it, especially in a scenario it seems like victory is out of reach.

i guess to me jupiterxv's 'i'd just be submitting nightkills there would be bodies and clears' does seem like the likely newbie default here to me

at least from night 3 on right

like night one t3 gets jailed maybe kill was blocked
night two could see the newbie defaulting to shooting the most prominent threat, titus, who was then saved
at this point, following that thought process, i would think the newbie would think, oh i need to target someone else to get a kill through, or at the very least the night following that one

like it doesn't seem impossible to me that a newbie would have any number of other approaches, and like skygazer said much earlier t3 could have left gameplan as well,

but i will blindly submit titus until i lose hoping something else happens does not seem like the default to me no

[shiki]

and even the content he has posted today is regurgitated from what I said,

why do you think projectry's opening of today posts are more likely to have been scums reworking your posts rather than a mindmeld type of situation?

I didn't consider this beforehand and I after a pause for consideration you're correct that it could be. Is there a reason that he couldn't be mafia and have the same thought process (especially one that multiple people have come to), though?

nope it's certainly not exclusionary but that doesn't make it evidence of projectry actually being mafia

like dannflor probably wouldn't be playing today much if any differently in this situation if he were mafia right? but does that make him a scums?

[shiki]

anyway i will do my to do list tomorrow sorry i haven't forgotten just long day and now i've run out of time tonight

[shiki]

thankyou for moderating and apologies for needing to be replaced

glad to see we got there in the end