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Post Post #10 (isolation #0) » Thu Mar 30, 2023 9:07 pm

Post by Feysal »

Scummers of the world unite!

VOTE: IceDragon70

Consider yourself sued.
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Post Post #11 (isolation #1) » Thu Mar 30, 2023 9:16 pm

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Wait. How exactly did Goldfish make us wait?

@Narrator: I will be on V/LA for Saturday.
My orchestra has its spring concert tomorrow, and the final rehearsal, concert and party will take the entire day. Just one, but declaring it anyway, since I've seen so many games become posting sprees.
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Post Post #14 (isolation #2) » Thu Mar 30, 2023 9:31 pm

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Oh. Never looked at that, just saw 12/13 confirmed last night.
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Post Post #18 (isolation #3) » Thu Mar 30, 2023 10:58 pm

Post by Feysal »

In post 15, IceDragon70 wrote:I love court proceedings!
What alignment are you?
Malediction, obviously. What else would prosecution be?

Anyway, enough joking, I see an off ramp out of RVS. What is this, we have an innocent child already?
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Post Post #25 (isolation #4) » Thu Mar 30, 2023 11:44 pm

Post by Feysal »

In post 20, IceDragon70 wrote:I agree it's time to get off RVS, but how does saying "we have an innocent child already?" do that?
How indeed? Oh look, it just did.

Anyway, I would like to confirm that this is something they just are, not something they did, and Narration just forgot to include it when opening the day. There apparently is such a thing as activated innocent child, but using it right out of the gate would be odd.
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Post Post #32 (isolation #5) » Fri Mar 31, 2023 12:45 am

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In post 26, IceDragon70 wrote:Is this post a question to the mod, a question to HFO, or just a statement?
It does not matter, does it? And neither does the answer. They're town either way.
In post 26, IceDragon70 wrote:Also it did but only because I voted you.
If that is what it takes, fine. RVS is where you throw random shit at the wall until you spot something actually relevant to talk about. The result does not need to look like the Mona Lisa, and if I need to point out the obvious thing for being obvious because nothing else has happened yet, so be it.
In post 23, IceDragon70 wrote:Nuh uh! You'll have to be pretty ambitious to try and kill me tonight.
Now this actually looks relevant. Why would you say this?
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Post Post #86 (isolation #6) » Fri Mar 31, 2023 4:29 am

Post by Feysal »

In post 57, Rautherdir wrote:I will say my role name sounds much more powerful then the actual ability actually is. I'm actually not sure at all how to use my role to any benefit, though it is role madness so uh... maybe there's some use to even something like what I have?
You're not the only one. And I have seen the most useless roles turning out to be very beneficial in the end.
In post 69, Enchant wrote:I think it's not more letter eating like "scum not scum" it's more that you assume that one of teams could benefit town which is not assumption commonly made.
Given the name Benediction for the green team, this is an understandable assumption though. But I think this is exactly why we were told not to rely on flavor. I have been in games where good and evil did not match with town and scum factions, and this looks like one of them.

I have only ever seen one informed minority that was actually compatible with the town. But the twist was that they
were
still threats to the town, but they did not realize it. I figured it out because I was a serial killer in that game, and my win condition was weird too. We managed to organize a shared victory between town and all third parties, but when one of them found out I was right about us being considered threats, he blew up in a way that got him modkilled.
In post 78, ActionDan wrote:The stretch to entertain the idea they aren't reads to me as a possible play to fake a dumb not-benediction faction tell more than honest concern.
I disagree. If memory serves, this kind of confusion usually comes from an uninformed perspective, therefore Rautherdir probably is town.

By the way - it was not Enchant who associated green with claiming scum in the first place. They were echoing Dragon, who did it first.
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Post Post #95 (isolation #7) » Fri Mar 31, 2023 5:00 am

Post by Feysal »

Meanwhile, we have all pretty much ignored Abnegation claiming miller. Not sure what to make of it, except that claiming it right at the start is generally the right play. This is multiball though, and her claim could make either scum team suspect her of belonging to the other, potentially exposing her to nightkills. Leaving this alone for now.
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Post Post #104 (isolation #8) » Fri Mar 31, 2023 5:15 am

Post by Feysal »

In post 98, The Keeper wrote:You raise it simply to say to leave it?
Pretty much. With a claim like this, I expect corroborating evidence to turn up sooner or later - such as the presence of a cop who can get those reads as results.
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Post Post #106 (isolation #9) » Fri Mar 31, 2023 5:20 am

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In post 103, Rautherdir wrote:Though... any public attempt to clear them would likely get them night killed, and action economy of two nights to confirm them as town is a bit suspect, as mentioned.
It might only take one. Imagine for example if Abnegation was actually Benediction, and got investigated on night one, or any other odd night. Claim instantly blown out of the water.
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Post Post #115 (isolation #10) » Fri Mar 31, 2023 5:39 am

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In post 113, IceDragon70 wrote:Care to link that game btw? Sounds like a really weird game but a fun read.
Wizards at the Sorcerers' Den
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Post Post #257 (isolation #11) » Fri Mar 31, 2023 10:40 pm

Post by Feysal »

Plenty of new posts. I have some time before my concert, so responding while I can.
In post 166, ActionDan wrote: I simply did not feel the compulsion to vote. I treat my votes as more committal than most and I'm only half scrutinizing the thread while I'm working. I thought it enough to state my opinion while being content to wait a bit longer for both an answer to my earlier inquiry to you and more posts in general.
I can relate to this. I've never liked RVS, because I don't like throwing my vote around either. Any excuse to get out of it is good enough for me.
In post 166, ActionDan wrote: So I don't believe you're voting me for the stated reason. What I do think is happening here is that you're piggybacking off post and invented a new reason to vote me to keep it fresh. In which case there's a rather poignant hypocrisy occurring, as in post Keeper makes a similar if not even stronger denouncement of Rautherdir without voting for him and there's no mention of it.
To be fair, while I find understanding the Keeper difficult, I interpret that post as them thinking Rautherdir was wrong, not suspicious.
In post 135, Abnegation wrote: This has the town vibes. If you’re scum and you know people scumread the lack of an RVS vote, you probably just cast one.
I think it is more a personality issue, and that has no bearing on alignment. If you don't like RVS, you just don't.
In post 128, IceDragon70 wrote: HOWEVER, I would like to speculate (and this is just that - speculation, based solely on flavor and my own understanding of what I consider fun) that Benediction is not going to have a factional nightkill, but rather a factional roleblock (please gimmie some postgame credit if I end up being right).
Oddly enough, I'm getting a town feeling from this, or at least a non-Benediction feel. I don't believe this theory, not for a second, and I expect it to be proven wrong the first night. Why angle for postgame credit for something you know is not going to happen?

UNVOTE: IceDragon70

I still wonder about his hints of being untouchable, but I can imagine some sneaky town motivation behind it, and he is at least pushing the game forward.

For the record, I think 9/2/2 is the most likely setup here. I find these ideas of a benign second faction rather too exotic, I would only believe it when I see it. I would sooner buy something like 9/3/1 or 10/2/1, with an informed minority of one, and even that is pretty far-fetched.
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Post Post #259 (isolation #12) » Fri Mar 31, 2023 11:06 pm

Post by Feysal »

Breaking up the quote wall.
In post 143, The Keeper wrote: The point of the claim is that no such waste of power occurs, if you're Marked you lose a lot of damage when you miss.

The solution here is simply that the person must be shown a game over screen, probably before we get the choice of Sheol or Cathedral...
Uhh... right. I'm going to have a real hard time reading you, aren't I? If I translate this correctly, you are saying no actions should be wasted on investigating millers, but they should rather be executed. I was not advocating for Abnegation to be investigated. My point is, how could scum even predict the town had a cop like that? I would consider the mere existence of such a role evidence for her claim.
In post 165, Rautherdir wrote: I mean yeah but it's the best I have to work with outside of Enchant being seemingly convinced that Benediction is guaranteed to be antagonistic to town, and I don't really scum read that so much as find it odd.
I was in a My Little Pony themed game once where Friendship served as the scum faction. I have no reason to believe Benediction would not be scum here.
In post 180, Abnegation wrote: If you had stayed silent, scum would have to debate killing you because of the possibility that their kill would be wasted.
They still do. They have to second guess whether the other faction is going to target them, remember.
In post 187, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 186, furtiveglance wrote: Drew is obviously capping to try and trick me into killing him. I won't fall for it, he and bianco are obviously getting protected tonight.

Right guys?
Wrong PT
I'm interpreting this as a joke, but I don't get it. What does capping mean in this context?
In post 242, Rautherdir wrote: But yeah let's not speedrun this game, no one has actually outright scum claimed and we would really like to have the time to develop reads on other people as well.
Well, technically IceDragon, Enchant and me all did, but sure.
In post 183, Abnegation wrote: I'm going to take a guess that one faction has a standard NK and one has something else.
I doubt it, if only for balance reasons. How would such a faction even win?
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Post Post #355 (isolation #13) » Sun Apr 02, 2023 1:21 pm

Post by Feysal »

I'm back, and finished reading. Replies incoming.
In post 315, furtiveglance wrote: How was the concert?
It was fine, thanks for asking. We had some trouble due to the church acoustics we were not accustomed to, but nothing serious. And we got to prank our conductor for our encore, so we had fun.
In post 264, IceDragon70 wrote: Also: Feysal, what are your pronouns?
I'd rather not say. I could give a longer answer why, but in the middle of the game is not the best time, it would just be a distraction. Just pick one, I won't mind if you guess wrong.
In post 263, IceDragon70 wrote: Btw, when did Feysal claim scum?
It was , making that malicious prosecution joke.
In post 270, Abnegation wrote: A faction like that doesn't have to lack killing power completely, they just might not have a standard nightkill. This thread has some examples of atypical factions.
Thanks for the link. I skimmed it, and I see people have come up with lots of new ideas. I'm at a disadvantage here, since this is my first game here in nearly five years, and I'm not up to date on new developments. I'd never heard of the checker Rautherdir claimed for one.
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Post Post #356 (isolation #14) » Sun Apr 02, 2023 2:28 pm

Post by Feysal »

In post 282, ActionDan wrote: Seems I missed this Rauth town read. I've seen it both ways, and for myself I've had my fair share of games where I was confused about a topic I really shouldn't have been with a little thought and also engaged in the exact same behavior knowing better as scum.

Does the Rauth town read still hold now?
That... is a very good question.

As I mentioned above, this is my first game after a long hiatus. While this game was in signups, I read some of my past games, partly for entertainment, but also to remember the sorts of tells and methods I used to use to scumhunt. What you said here reminds me of one of them, the one my signature is quoted from actually. In that game, there was one player who appeared confused by the setup - it had two towns and two scum factions in one game - which I interpreted as town. They were scum, and I fell for it.

The one part about their play I found odd is they also seemed confused by a hydra, the heads of which should have been obvious, but they kept changing their signature as a running gag. At one point they claimed to be a hydra of myself and mith, when I was already in the game, which was a bit much. My take from this is
some
confusion is probably town, but keep it up too long and it starts to look like an act everyone is meant to notice.

Here the speculation whether Benediction was regular scum went on rather too long, and it occurs to me that Benediction would have a vested interest in getting us to believe they were not a threat. And for that, Rautherdir was largely responsible for.

Add the claim, which is difficult to confirm, and the ability is so weak it would explain his continued survival into late game.
In post 282, ActionDan wrote: Also I don't know if you thought I was referring to someone else other than Rauth at the time of that post as the last line looks not relevant.
Oh, the last line was not even directed at you, but at Rautherdir, who suspected Enchant of scumslipping for their belief Benediction would be scum.

Wait a minute... how does one simultaneously theorize Benediction being benign, and suspect someone of slipping they were not?

VOTE: Rautherdir

In response to your question, no. No it does not.
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Post Post #398 (isolation #15) » Mon Apr 03, 2023 1:20 pm

Post by Feysal »

In post 357, Hell Froze Over wrote: Is this a subtle attack at me for forgetting to sign my posts? Touché.
Not at all. I was referring to the signature that is attached to each post. Yours says quite clearly "hydra of biancospino and Doctor Drew". The signature I referenced says to this day "hydra of Faraday and Mina", both of whom were in the game in a
different
hydra. It said many other things too. The actual hydra was named MaguaofIllusion, consisting of Magua and MagnaofIllusion. So... yeah. How someone could genuinely be confused by that stretched the limits of credibility a little.
In post 384, GuyInFreezer wrote: Don’t worry the only slip I ever do in mafia game is altslip.
As if. This was an ego post if I ever saw one. Hello GIF. You're actually the only familiar face I see in this game.
In post 386, The Keeper wrote: Also fwiw pronouns discussion is always valid, as are your pronouns Feysal- no matter how complex your gender is.
Not actually complicated at all. To explain it quickly, I just think it should not matter in mafia. There is more to it, but I do believe waxing philosophical about it midgame is neither the right time or place. You can ask me later if you want.
In post 389, Enchant wrote: Oh by the way i asked what "Mod Misdirection" means so yeah, your Role PMs also can lie.
Oh boy. Once upon a time on a forum that no longer exists, I played a town survivor. What I was not told was that I was also an amnesiac reflexive silencer, and a miller. I spent much of the game roleplaying an old lady with dementia. I doubt this game has anything quite that extreme though. Anyway, I don't see what we could do about this now, other than to expect the unexpected.
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Post Post #424 (isolation #16) » Tue Apr 04, 2023 2:50 am

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In post 358, Rautherdir wrote: The theory was meant to provoke discussion and get us out of RVS. I don't actually believe it to be the case, and without night actions or a flip to show otherwise I will be treating the game as having two antagonistic factions against town.
This has already been pointed out, but if you believed this, I don't follow how you could think sharing that belief was a slip.

I also tried to imagine what my thought process would have been if I had entered the game believing Benediction would not be inherently hostile. I might have thought Enchant assuming otherwise was weird. "Hey, don't you think it is strange to expect Benediction to be scum? I thought they might not be our enemy, what do you think? Really? No one else, just me? Huh, guess that was nothing then." But that is not what happened here. I could believe that thought process, even if I did not share it myself. But what actually happened, that I don't get.
In post 403, Hell Froze Over wrote: Yeah, game's pretty slow uh.
I'm glad I'm not the only one thinking this. If this pace was considered normal, it would have been pretty sad.
In post 422, Hell Froze Over wrote: Careful there, I think talking about site activity in other games at the very least walks the line if not even surpass it.
If that is so, that is something that has changed since my last game. It was once understood that talking about general activity was fair game. For example, you could comment that a player was lurking while actively posting in other games, and try to draw conclusions from it. Going any further into events in other games was of course not allowed. I have also seen a player being spotted online and leaving without posting being viewed as suspicious.
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Post Post #432 (isolation #17) » Tue Apr 04, 2023 12:04 pm

Post by Feysal »

Time passes, nothing happens, and people are casting votes with less reasoning than during RVS. Wonderful.

I firmly believe it is useful to know who you are trying to read if you want to read them correctly, and I barely know anyone here, which presents a problem. I don't have the time to research meta on everyone, but at least I can do it for suspects. I had a closer look at Rautherdir, and my confidence in my case took a serious blow.

The first thing is about his claim. While the role is as weak for scum as it is for town, I thought it would be a very convenient false claim, if you did not want your night actions to be verifiable or to be nightkilled. But the issue is, Rautherdir is in the same boat I am. His last game prior to this was over three years ago, ending in January 2020. The checker wiki page was created in June 2020. I don't think it is reasonable to expect him to have known about it. I believe his role is real now.

The second thing is that Rautherdir is good at playing scum. He is
very
good. He is bold and confident, enough to RVS vote an innocent child. He won Grand Idea uPick for his team. Everything is a lie v2 was cancelled, but his partner had this to say about him:
In post 2738, NorwegianboyEE wrote: Me/Hectic were second groupscum with Rautherdir. It's too bad game ended like this. Because Rautherdir seriously impressed me with his performance. And he was juggling like 10 PT's.
Does this sound like his play here? His wittering, as furtiveglance put it? I think it looks more like his town play, which I found from 2019, where he seems much less sure of himself.

I still think the mental gymnastics required to suspect Enchant are weird, but I'm having second thoughts now.
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Post Post #434 (isolation #18) » Tue Apr 04, 2023 12:19 pm

Post by Feysal »

No, not you. I meant the votes on Goldfish and Hugir, because wynaut.
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Post Post #459 (isolation #19) » Wed Apr 05, 2023 4:29 am

Post by Feysal »

In post 449, Hell Froze Over wrote: Ok so we can stop worrying about Enchant.

And start worrying about Hugir.
I think this is pretty null for BlueSnakelet, townish for Hugir. I get the reasoning that scum would have more ways to find out the game had started, but BlueSnakelet missed the start only by about 16 hours. Some players who apparently did receive their daystart PMs took even longer to realize. Actually, I'm not positive everyone still has.

We really need a flip and a round of night actions to have something new to talk about. I hope this inactivity is due to Easter week, and the game picks up after it.
In post 454, Hugir wrote: WALL OF TEXT
I'm actually impressed by how many times you repeated the same phrases, but never with the exact same wording.
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Post Post #484 (isolation #20) » Wed Apr 05, 2023 7:22 am

Post by Feysal »

In post 477, Hugir wrote: Eh you're allowed to use stuff like those to base your reads. It's as relevant as using site wide activity level to determine if someone is active lurking. It's just that you can't publicly say those out loud a lot of times because you don't want to test the lines of the mentioning ongoing games rule.
I actually checked whether this rule had changed, and found out the exception allowing talking about activity was removed last year. You can still use ongoing games to base your reads on, but you can't talk about any of it. I wanted to know if I could use that to talk about Goldfish and KawaiiKame, and it did not even matter, since I found nothing.
In post 481, Rautherdir wrote: I mean. I'm going to do a silly and poke a hole in the meta case Feysal made for me being town, but it's been a few years since I played. My ability to play either town or scum has likely not improved any in that time, and my metas for both have likely altered some, though until I complete a few games I won't even know how it's changed or to what degree.
I'm aware and I understand. Like I said, we're in the same boat, only it's been even longer for me. I don't think people change that much that quickly though, and I believe being good at playing scum is more about having the right personality for it than skills.
In post 481, Rautherdir wrote: Actually thinking about it, I should probably try to catch rolestoppers instead of doing random shots in the dark, so I believe I know who my target should be tonight if I live.
I think you are underestimating the potential of your role. I can easily think of half a dozen roles that you could provide direct or indirect evidence of. I would recommend you pick someone you think is likely to be nightkilled, and don't tell who in advance.

---

I'm starting to get the impression that Rautherdir is posting his unfiltered thoughts, without stopping to think things through, and stumbled into contradictory stances.

UNVOTE: Rautherdir
VOTE: IceDragon70

I don't have much on IceDragon, for or against him, but time is running out and we need to pick someone.

ActionDan, Rautherdir, Abnegation, furtiveglance and me, that is two votes short of an execution. I hope he will be back from his V/LA soon to respond.
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Post Post #488 (isolation #21) » Wed Apr 05, 2023 8:01 am

Post by Feysal »

He said he was on V/LA until Wednesday, so we may have to wait. That seriously blows.
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Post Post #561 (isolation #22) » Thu Apr 06, 2023 12:42 pm

Post by Feysal »

In post 511, IceDragon70 wrote:
In post 23, IceDragon70 wrote: Nuh uh! You'll have to pretty ambitious to try and kill me tonight.
That was a pretty forced-sounding crumb btw.
Damn. Honestly, this crumb was the main reason I was suspicious of you. I thought you were hinting at being bulletproof or a treestump, and could not figure out why you would say this if that was the case. I also had a hunch you wanted to stop the setup discussion, as if there was something you did not want the town to think of.

Now what do we do? I honestly would not mind switching to KawaiiKame, but do we even have enough time for another wagon? They only have four posts, and no content whatsoever.
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Post Post #568 (isolation #23) » Thu Apr 06, 2023 2:54 pm

Post by Feysal »

In post 562, Abnegation wrote: Unfortunately, I don't think that's ai for them. We could try flashwagoning them though if you want to.
I agree it is null, but right now I think both the alternatives are more likely to be town than a shot in the dark. And there is the theory that when multiple replacements happen, they are
slightly
more likely to be scum, because knowing you lost a partner can be demoralizing. Yes, I admit that is weak.

I'm setting my clock to wake me before the deadline, should I need to change my vote.

UNVOTE: IceDragon70
VOTE: KawaiiKame
In post 564, KawaiiKame wrote:
In post 86, Feysal wrote: *SNIP*
Is this game predicated on finding what faction is the town faction? I like you saying that only one informed minority was actually compatible with town, does an uninformed minority potentially exist/does only an uninformed majority exist? I like this post a lot, an informed minority compatible with town ending up being a threat to town is highly useful info, same with Rauth feeling uninformed thus most likely town.

I like this post a lot this deep analysis feels town to me.
Uhh... what...?

Seriously, I was not analyzing anything with this post. I was just sharing an anecdote from years ago, and its only relevance was how rare it is to have non-town factions that can win with town.
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Post Post #570 (isolation #24) » Thu Apr 06, 2023 3:09 pm

Post by Feysal »

In short, I've lost faith in either alternative wagon being on scum. I know the odds of this going anywhere are slim at best. I will be here before the deadline to change my vote if needed.
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Post Post #571 (isolation #25) » Thu Apr 06, 2023 3:40 pm

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Okay, one more reply since I can't seem to get to sleep with this in my head. I mentioned I would not mind switching to KawaiiKame, and suddenly they declare a town read on me, misreading an almost irrelevant anecdote as "deep analysis". I mean... huh? What the hell is up with that reaction?
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Post Post #589 (isolation #26) » Thu Apr 06, 2023 6:58 pm

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One hour to go. So it is Rautherdir then.

UNVOTE: KawaiiKame
VOTE: Rautherdir
In post 583, Hell Froze Over wrote: I think that {Rauth, Ice} is almost surely not all town. If this flips blue I'm pretty confident that Ice is green.
I actually think both of them are town now. If I had to name my best bet for scum heading into night, it actually is KawaiiKame. That instant buddying in response to a hint of pressure was too weird.
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Post Post #615 (isolation #27) » Mon Apr 10, 2023 1:58 pm

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I don't know about the arsonist idea, it sounds like it would be underpowered compared to a normal nightkill. Anyway, it sounded to me like Benediction intended to kill, and Rautherdir told Malediction so that they would not hit the same target. Which means, we're missing one kill.

What I'm thinking here is, after Rautherdir flipped Benediction, it is highly unlikely that they would have an ability to block. What would be the point of a checker if they were the ones doing the blocking? My theory is, there is a town roleblocker or jailkeeper, and that is why there was only one death.

Yeah... I'm not even going to wait for someone to publish the result. There really was only one player who looked like obvious scum after yesterday.

VOTE: KawaiiKame

No need to rush of course, we have more to discuss. What happened to the Keeper? Rautherdir was talking about them being suspicious for flavor reasons after being hammered, which would be a bizarre thing to do to a partner. So what is the point of learning they're not Benediction?
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Post Post #666 (isolation #28) » Tue Apr 11, 2023 9:58 am

Post by Feysal »

In post 624, IceDragon70 wrote: Am I not also cleared of greenscum by interaction with Rauther? I wouldn't expect scum to omgus their partner when the deadline is near and there's probably better pushes.
Honestly, no. Rival wagons on scum partners may be rare, but I have seen it happen. In that case, I believe the best option is to bus your partner with impunity, because not doing so looks horribly conspicuous. Case in point, KawaiiKame, who did not even have any wagon.

I am wondering why you would be worried about the green team anyway? I believe KawaiiKame is the last of them, and if so, being confirmed as non-Benediction is irrelevant.
In post 627, IceDragon70 wrote: Just a note though: assuming 2v2v9, would it be dangerous to execute Benediction over Malediction today?
This is quite strange to me. Getting rid of one scum team so we have only one nightkill to deal with is the obvious right move. Malediction would want Benediction to survive a little longer because more townies dying would benefit them.
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Post Post #673 (isolation #29) » Tue Apr 11, 2023 10:44 am

Post by Feysal »

In post 650, Aisa wrote:
@Feysal

Spoiler:
In post 484, Feysal wrote:
In post 481, Rautherdir wrote: Actually thinking about it, I should probably try to catch rolestoppers instead of doing random shots in the dark, so I believe I know who my target should be tonight if I live.
I think you are underestimating the potential of your role. I can easily think of half a dozen roles that you could provide direct or indirect evidence of. I would recommend you pick someone you think is likely to be nightkilled, and don't tell who in advance.

What do you think is good about a checker targeting someone who is likely to be nightkilled?
People likely to be nightkilled are also magnets for other actions from town and scum, and a checker could provide evidence for several roles. For example, failure to check could prove the target had been rolestopped or jailed, or the target was hiding. Success would have ruled out other actions, by other players and the target.
In post 650, Aisa wrote:
Spoiler:
I'm starting to get the impression that Rautherdir is posting his unfiltered thoughts, without stopping to think things through, and stumbled into contradictory stances.

UNVOTE: Rautherdir
VOTE: IceDragon70

I don't have much on IceDragon, for or against him, but time is running out and we need to pick someone.

ActionDan, Rautherdir, Abnegation, furtiveglance and me, that is two votes short of an execution. I hope he will be back from his V/LA soon to respond.

Interested in what you were thinking around this time. What made Rauth seem unfiltered?
It was the exchange between him and Hell Froze Over starting from post , where Rautherdir was wondering whether to check an ascetic IC. Those posts were made in quite quick succession, and it looked like Rautherdir had posted without finishing his thought first.
In post 650, Aisa wrote:
Spoiler:
In post 568, Feysal wrote:
In post 562, Abnegation wrote: Unfortunately, I don't think that's ai for them. We could try flashwagoning them though if you want to.
I agree it is null, but right now I think both the alternatives are more likely to be town than a shot in the dark. And there is the theory that when multiple replacements happen, they are
slightly
more likely to be scum, because knowing you lost a partner can be demoralizing. Yes, I admit that is weak.

I'm setting my clock to wake me before the deadline, should I need to change my vote.

UNVOTE: IceDragon70
VOTE: KawaiiKame

How likely did you think this flashwagon was to go through?
Snowball in hell, honestly. I probably would not have even tried it without Abnegation mentioning a flashwagon a couple hours earlier. I saw no harm in trying though, since I made sure I would be there before the deadline.
In post 650, Aisa wrote:
Spoiler:
In post 589, Feysal wrote:
In post 583, Hell Froze Over wrote: I think that {Rauth, Ice} is almost surely not all town. If this flips blue I'm pretty confident that Ice is green.
I actually think both of them are town now. If I had to name my best bet for scum heading into night, it actually is KawaiiKame. That instant buddying in response to a hint of pressure was too weird.

What did you think of the mechanical argument for {Rauth, Ice} not both being town?
What mechanical argument? If there was one, I missed it. I thought there was no reason they could not both be town, and in fact believed they both probably were.
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Post Post #676 (isolation #30) » Tue Apr 11, 2023 11:15 am

Post by Feysal »

In post 662, Aisa wrote: I guess I'm wondering - does anyone here have any familiarity with Kawaii? Is their tone their usual town tone? Is this too easy? What alignment is everyone else? I don't really have a feel for this game so I'm not really aching to flashwagon Kawaii right this very second. But the people on the wagon have points.
All I can say is that I agree about the lurking being meaningless. Also, KawaiiKame is still new, having joined the site less than two months ago, and that makes their play harder to read. Newbies make newbie mistakes, but even so, I feel good about this.

By the way, when I first mentioned switching to KawaiiKame, it was based on nothing more than the off chance that your predecessor had gotten demoralized and replaced out because of their partner. Why I picked them over Goldfish was because they came back and continued to be useless. Given how few people were actively posting, I was fine with getting rid of a lurker, while a replacement could still redeem Goldfish's slot.
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Post Post #677 (isolation #31) » Tue Apr 11, 2023 11:20 am

Post by Feysal »

In post 675, Abnegation wrote: I was going to say "why Kawaii green?" and then I realized green is scum.
Is this color thing really this confusing? So many people keep mentioning it. I've seen blue town, red town, green town, grey town, maybe others too. The colors used to vary a lot.
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Post Post #686 (isolation #32) » Wed Apr 12, 2023 8:51 am

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In post 684, Aisa wrote: This is a reassuring reply to me, at least you seem aware that it came across as a bit of a shot in the dark.
Well, "shot in the dark" was the exact phrase I used in that post. I admit it was a lucky shot, there was no way I could have predicted KawaiiKame reacting like that to a hint of pressure.
In post 684, Aisa wrote: There was, here, and in fact I think that's where Hell Froze Over's idea that {Rauth, Ice} would not both be town must have come from:
Spoiler:
In post 516, Hell Froze Over wrote: Mechanically, ID's claimed role would interact weirdly with a Checker I think. Checker's already not all that good, and would quite antisynergise with an Empowerer. I don't think ID/Rauth are any likely to be both Invocation.

A thought came in my mind that, if Benediction has a factional role
stop
, then a Checker would be significantly more useful, and Benediction would be interested in using an Empowerer to neutralize the Checker.
Ah, so this was it. I did read it, but Hell Froze Over did not really elaborate why they thought that, and I missed what the point was. I'm still not quite sure I understand, but if the reason was that empowering a checker would cause the checker to get incorrect results, I would not have been convinced by that. There is no reason to expect an empowerer would even target a checker, and there are other town roles that can interfere with each other. Miller and cop, for an obvious example.
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Post Post #766 (isolation #33) » Fri Apr 14, 2023 4:16 am

Post by Feysal »

In post 717, Abnegation wrote:
In post 715, IceDragon70 wrote: Assuming it's true scum can't crosskill directly, but still have a way to get the other scum killed (per the phrasing Rauth used), it's possible that each scumteam has a publishing cop on the other scumteam.
So basically my speculation is that Malediction can check if a player is Benediction, and post that info publicly.
If that's true, what happened to the Benediction cop? Or maybe they were roleblocked and that also explains why there was only one kill.
Interesting theory. I have to wonder though, why would Malediction want to investigate the Keeper? At least to me, after the things Rautherdir said after the hammer, the Keeper was already extremely unlikely to be Benediction.

I believe Benediction was roleblocked or jailed. It could also be that after losing Rautherdir they would not have been able to both kill and investigate anyway.
In post 737, Aisa wrote: I remember seeing this at the time and thinking "huh, this already seems a bit towny". There's clearly this strong implication of a townie perspective, knowing that he's town so we can't both be mafia. But it's also so
casual
. I just thought the vibe was more likely to be town. Didn't say anything at the time obviously, because, uh, way too random even for me.
This. I don't have the benefit of having played with either Enchant or furtiveglance before, and I have no read on either of them, but this does help me establish a read on you. This pretty much echos my own thoughts from an old game where I decided a player was town because of a casual mention of thinking about the game while swimming. That town read held to the end of the game and proved correct, but I only dared explain where it had come from postgame. So, I understand this perspective perfectly.

Another player I can't seem to figure out is the Keeper. The Binding of Isaac stuff is obviously an act, and I'm not really bothered by that - I have done something similar with a flavor alt once. But it does make it hard to read them, because even when I'm able to figure out what the gibberish means, it comes off as sort of filtered and veiled. What does bother me is that they appear to be actively lurking, and when they are here, it is like they are playing an entirely different game from the rest of us. Like now with the vote on furtiveglance, which I can't see going anywhere. And the strangest part is that I believe the Keeper is aware of this and just... doesn't care. I don't get this.

Oh, and KawaiiKame is one vote away from execution. There is me, Abnegation, furtiveglance, IceDragon and Enchant voting.
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Post Post #769 (isolation #34) » Fri Apr 14, 2023 4:22 am

Post by Feysal »

Oh - forgot to mention, but I don't think the neighborhood with KawaiiKame and Aisa matters, especially if neither of them was responsible for it.
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Post Post #779 (isolation #35) » Fri Apr 14, 2023 6:35 am

Post by Feysal »

Lucky you, I only got 666.
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Post Post #928 (isolation #36) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 7:37 am

Post by Feysal »

In post 905, Abnegation wrote: Ty Aisa! Idk if you actually took a bullet for me but I'm half clear if you did.
I'm afraid you're not.

I never saw this coming, but Aisa's death looks extremely damning for you, regardless of which one of you took the bullet. Aisa was a compulsive roleblocker who could not switch targets unless they died, and she targeted you. This was now the second night in a row with only one death. On top of that, IceDragon speculated that the scum had factional cops, and if that was true, scum would have enough information to make up a miller claim like yours.

Now what do we do, finish the massclaim? Just to be sure there is no other explanation? I can already say I have done nothing that could explain this.
In post 924, Enchant wrote: Furtive just loverised me with self for fucking no reason so my chances to survive next night nosedived anyway.
Well, after this claim they certainly did.
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Post Post #951 (isolation #37) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 11:41 pm

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In post 949, The Keeper wrote: You either failed to understand the claim or are actually trolling me.
You are not clear.
For all practical purposes, he might as well be. After that claim, Enchant is basically a dead man walking, because both scum factions are still in play, and we lost our roleblocker/bodyguard with Aisa. Even if Furtive is scum, the other scum team will never be able to resist getting two deletions for the price of one, and if Enchant was scum, that cop claim was suicide.
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Post Post #1038 (isolation #38) » Thu Apr 20, 2023 5:40 am

Post by Feysal »

In post 983, Abnegation wrote:
In post 969, Abnegation wrote: By the way, who sent me that mysterious flyer?
Feysal, was that you?
You figured out my crumb, did you? I was wondering if anyone was ever going to say anything about them, the Keeper never did.

I suppose it is time to claim then. I'm Propagation. I hand out flyers. I'm basically a fruit vendor with a different flavor. I've given out two, one to the Keeper, the second to you.
In post 1026, Flavor Leaf wrote: I think Feysal's like so obviously Green Scum I almost don't want to believe it.
Then don't, because I'm not. I mean, if you had accused me of being Malediction, that I could have understood, but this?

I wrote the original at a time when he was widely townread. If not for that, Rautherdir would not even have been an option at the end of the day. Yes, he managed to fool me because he was playing to his town meta, making me think we had two rival wagons on town, and I did not like having to hammer him. Look at my post and tell me if that looks like I would know he was about to flip Benediction?
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Post Post #1055 (isolation #39) » Thu Apr 20, 2023 12:17 pm

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In post 1050, IceDragon70 wrote: Where was the crumb?
In post 10, Feysal wrote: Scummers of the world unite!
Propagation, propaganda. Came up with that one almost instantly.
In post 1051, IceDragon70 wrote: @Feysal, post is actually weird because you are hammering a person you allegedly believe is town, and prior to that you were actively avoiding their wagon at a time when a lot of evidence against them existed. I don't see it as any sort of defense.
Avoiding it? I it. I left it because I lost confidence in my case after diving into Rautherdir's meta. And what else was I going to do one hour before deadline except hammer like I'd promised?
In post 1051, IceDragon70 wrote: What I am more interested in is who do you think is scum here? And what are your thoughts on FlavorLeaf and ActionDan?
I believe I already made clear that I think Abnegation is Benediction, and her being blocked for two nights is the reason there have been no extra kills.

As for Malediction, I have a hard time buying that Furtive could be scum. He would have needed to choose that action last night, before Aisa died, when Malediction likely would not have known who the last Benediction was any more than the town would. Why double the risk of being nightkilled, or risk becoming lovers with Benediction? Malediction would have needed to be very certain they could correctly execute Benediction today or that Furtive's time was running out, and I don't see either as being necessarily true.

I would have to say my top suspect now for Malediction would be the Keeper. I'd noticed yesterday how silent they had become, how they cast single votes that never led to anything, and how they did not seem to care about being suspected, as if they had a get out of jail free card. I stayed silent, because the Keeper was my best bet for a cop laying low. Why did I think that? It was what BlueSnakelet was going on about on day one. I thought I had figured it out, and the revelation stuff in one of his posts was a crumb. But now, that defense has evaporated.

For the other Malediction, it would have to be one of ActionDan, Flavor Leaf and Hugir. Except for Flavor Leaf, because replacement, I've been town reading both since day one.
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Post Post #1071 (isolation #40) » Thu Apr 20, 2023 9:39 pm

Post by Feysal »

In post 1057, Abnegation wrote: Just flyer vendor? Not even any sort of investigative modifier attached to it?
Not to my knowledge. The thought did occur to me after the Keeper was confirmed as not Benediction though, the same night I gave them a flyer, that perhaps I had not been told everything about my role. That is part of why I gave you one, to see if anything would happen..
In post 1056, Hugir wrote: Not Abnegation
Why are you ruling Abnegation out?
In post 1064, ActionDan wrote: Please look back on D1 and look at the votes for Ice / Rauth. Consider it homework. Tell me what you see.
I did. And I found one thing I had forgotten.
In post 562, Abnegation wrote: Unfortunately, I don't think that's AI for them. We could try flashwagoning them though if you want to.
This was Abnegation talking about KawaiiKame, six hours before the deadline. I was aware of the risk of no execution, and without this I would not have even tried going after KawaiiKame. It was subtle to be sure, but Abnegation did make this one attempt to steer votes away from Rautherdir and IceDragon.

I also was reminded how she helpfully made vote counts for us, which by itself is non suspicious, but it is something scum can do to appear helpful.
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Post Post #1161 (isolation #41) » Sat Apr 22, 2023 7:20 am

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In post 1092, Flavor Leaf wrote: I think Fey's green, not red.
If I was, I'd be a flyer vendor who wrote the case that led to their checker partner being executed. It does feel like you're crowbarring me to being Benediction.
In post 1148, IceDragon70 wrote: I'm not actually anti-roleblock, I'm anti-redirect. Like I choose a person and they can't be redirected.
This day is just full of surprises. I actually believed the role you claimed was a perfect complement to Aisa's. Was it Rautherdir's claim that gave you that idea?
In post 1148, IceDragon70 wrote: Except I wonder what motivation does Hugir have to lie about who they redirected?
Scum would not be able to claim actions that seemed designed to mess with the town. At least, not normally.

Long ago I played in some Lucid Dreamers marathon games, where one tactic I used was dreaming I was a role blocker and switching two people. During the day this would cause a conflict, usually with two players accusing each other of lying, which I would draw reads from. Then I would resolve the conflict by claiming. It was effective, too.

Here though, since I saw Kawaii flip town, I wondered what the hell happened there. Kawaii had called me town the previous day, and it occurred that they might have tried to neighborize me. But, I don't see the point of redirecting from me to Aisa either.
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Post Post #1164 (isolation #42) » Sat Apr 22, 2023 7:47 am

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One thing occurred to me. Flavor Leaf, did the Keeper ever mention receiving a flyer? They never said anything about it in thread, and now I wonder if they ever got it.

Where is the Keeper anyway? Not to mention Hell Froze Over? The whole point of a treestump is you get to be around in endgame to offer your thoughts. I've been one once, and it was one of my favorite roles ever - still using the avatar from that game.
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Post Post #1200 (isolation #43) » Sat Apr 22, 2023 10:39 am

Post by Feysal »

In post 1198, IceDragon70 wrote:
In post 1161, Feysal wrote: Lucid Dreamers marathon games.
Is that where you control your powers?
Yes. You submit any action, anything at all, and it happens.
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Post Post #1313 (isolation #44) » Sun Apr 23, 2023 11:33 am

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In post 1279, Flavor Leaf wrote: The fact Feysal waited until after Rauth showed up and gave up is nasty to me.
This confirmation bias of yours is getting a little silly. If you read my ISO, you should have seen me mention I set my clock to wake me up before deadline. My location on my profile is there for a reason, so people would know my time zone. I'd stayed up to something like 5 AM trying to figure out what to do.

I have read all the posts I missed, and seen a lot of wild and some not so wild theories, but I'm in no state to think about them right now. I have developed a nasty toothache, and can't focus. Going to see a dentist tomorrow.

I'm right now pretty much where I was at the start of the day, with the roleblocks pointing to Abnegation.
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Post Post #1318 (isolation #45) » Sun Apr 23, 2023 12:16 pm

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In post 1316, Flavor Leaf wrote: Still think it’s nasty and warrantable of a scum read if you end up being town. It’s not bad play or anything, just nasty in the scum tingling sense.
I just quoted that one because it felt silly from my perspective. And yes, I had read everything, and knew your current position.
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Post Post #1356 (isolation #46) » Sun Apr 23, 2023 9:57 pm

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In post 1319, Flavor Leaf wrote: Then if you are town, you're using your singular pov to rationalize it as silly while trying to dismiss it as such when from my pov, there's nothing that show that it's not warranted a piece of the discussional pie.

Just looks overly defensive.
Even if it was defensive, what else am I supposed to do in endgame while being accused? And I was not just dismissing it as silly, I pointed out facts that were posted in thread. I got here when I did because that was when my clock woke me up, it is as simple as that.

Now, I've been to the dentist and feeling better than I did last night. Time to see where my thoughts are.

I don't think all the theorycrafting is going to lead us to a solution. We don't have enough information to figure out what or who caused the inconsistencies we have. And we don't even know whether the Keeper ever got my flyer, which would be yet another one if they did not. But it is not for nothing, because looking at who is saying what can still be informative.

I don't think Hugir's claim makes them scum. Being last to claim can be suspicious, because it helps scum avoid being caught lying. But Hugir actually gave us a new inconsistency, because their claim did not explain how KawaiiKame neighborized Aisa. I think that is significant. I also don't buy the idea of redirection being a factional ability. The things Rautherdir said imply Benediction had some reason to believe Malediction would be in the same situation as them, which would mean their factional abilities were somehow mirrored. And in that case, using a factional ability as a claim would be doubly dangerous, because even if town believes it, the other scum team is certain to notice. I believe that claim, and Hugir is the least likely to be scum, either faction, in the pool of suspects.

Flavor Leaf has posted some truly wild theories which could have been a distraction, and at one point I started to think if his eagerness to see me as specifically Benediction was because he was Malediction himself, since both scum teams are legitimately hunting each other. But the feeling passed, and he has been looking for Malediction candidates too.

ActionDan has pretty consistently made sense to me all game, and while his claim was fairly safe for scum to make, it also gave us a new inconsistency like Hugir's did, and with added risk of being countered since everyone else had not claimed yet.

The Keeper remains absent. The theory of self-targeting to prove yourself as not Benediction is plausible. I always wondered what the point of that investigation was, because after how Rautherdir shaded the Keeper after being hammered, it already looked very unlikely they were partners.

Abnegation is the most logical option for Benediction here. There is the one post where she suggested flashwagoning Kawaii, which could have been a subtle attempt to split the votes to save her partner. She has also suggested alternative theories for why there has only been one kill every night, which makes sense from her today, but she actually started that
yesterday
. She was the one who came up with the arsonist idea after the first night. I don't think I've ever seen an arsonist, and it is interesting that her mind would go there instead of thinking about a roleblocker or jailkeeper, which are far more common. If she knew she had been blocked, she would have an interest to suggest alternative theories to distract us, but she should not have known until today.

VOTE: Abnegation
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Post Post #1386 (isolation #47) » Mon Apr 24, 2023 10:21 am

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Well, I have already said I have more faith in Hugir being town than Abnegation. I don't care about resolving the miller claim, I just think she is the most likely to be Benediction. I stand corrected on the theorycrafting, she was talking about it on day one, but the most important thing pointing at her is still the double roleblock.

This day phase is going to end at around 5 AM my time, and I will be asleep by then. Unless something changes in the next hour or so, my vote is not moving, since I won't be there to move it.

Keeper, if you're here, can you confirm whether you ever received a flyer? I tried to give you one on day one, and I've wondered if you ever got it since you've never said anything about it.
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Post Post #1454 (isolation #48) » Fri Apr 28, 2023 12:24 am

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This game... every night another surprise. I was sure that both Furtive and Enchant would be dead today, even if one of them was scum, certainly the other team would not let them live. I tried to think of a way out of that mess, and the best I could come up with was voting for no execution, trying to force Benediction to cooperate with town if they really could not kill Malediction, or to hope for a cross kill if they could. Anyone could still have won then, depending on how another round of night actions went.

I'm out of ideas to explain why there has only been one kill each night. It is plausible that both teams could have hit Abnegation or Aisa on night two, but nights one and three?
In post 1426, Hugir wrote: If Feysal was a flyer arsonist they would've ignited last night I feel like.
Since Abnegation was town, I think I owe it to her to take her theory seriously. If I was an arsonist, I would only have ignited if doing so resulted in my immediate victory. Last night, the only person alive I'd given a flyer to was the Keeper, and I was not even sure they'd received it. Igniting would only have pointed directly at me.

I think I have at last figured out what my role is for in this setup. It is for checking redirects. I did send the flyer to Hugir, so that at least was not interfered with.

So. ActionDan does not share alignment with IceDragon and Aisa, but which team is he? If he was Benediction, this execution could cost town the game. If he was though, I feel Malediction would have piled on already, unless one of them really was Furtive. ActionDan has also been saying that his actions make him least likely to be Benediction, and I think that is probably true.

I've thought about this for some time, and one scenario makes more sense to me than any other. I believe Enchant, I still think Hugir is town, and scum Furtive loverizing Enchant would be weird for Malediction and insane for Benediction to do. All that remains then is ActionDan and Keeper as Malediction, with Flavor Leaf as Benediction. But if that is so, Flavor Leaf is untouchable today.

I think what might have happened is that Malediction killed IceDragon, and counted on Benediction to kill the lovers for them. But Benediction either could not or would not, because they wanted Enchant to get one more investigation, and they did not expect it to be on them. And Flavor Leaf was the one who suggested investigating ActionDan yesterday.

VOTE: ActionDan
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Post Post #1507 (isolation #49) » Fri Apr 28, 2023 12:49 pm

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Is this even mafia any more? I'm more than ready for the day and game to end.
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Post Post #1509 (isolation #50) » Fri Apr 28, 2023 1:08 pm

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Not just a webcomic any more: Lackadaisy pilot.
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Post Post #1564 (isolation #51) » Mon May 01, 2023 10:49 am

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Another day, and this rollercoaster just won't stop.

I see Flavor Leaf got my flyer. I confirm that I did send it to him. If Hugir redirected me back to myself, I don't know how that is possible. If I am strong-willed, that is news to me, since my role PM does not say so.
In post 1525, Flavor Leaf wrote: I think we need to aim for Red Scum today then. If Hugir is suspected Green, we go for Red today, because if we miss, Red essentially has to kill off Green or risk getting killed off.
I don't think it matters which faction we go for today. We simply must execute scum, any scum. We only have five people left who can vote, including two scum, so we cannot afford any more town executions. Both role PMs of flipped scum referred to partners, with the names of the partners redacted. So, both scum remain active.

Yesterday I thought the remaining scum would be the Keeper and Flavor Leaf, but I did not think it would matter. I expected we would lose both Furtive and Enchant, and we would not have the numbers to get them both. All that would remain for us was to decide who we wanted to be endgamed by, or pray for scum to cross kill. But now, we still have some hope.

I don't think we should dismiss everything ActionDan said as lies and WIFOM. Malediction can't kill Hugir, or anyone else really, for fear of having their kill reflected back at them - I think that much is true. So, they really need Hugir executed. Question is, was he bluffing, or did he truly believe Hugir was scum?

I'm thinking over the scenarios here. ActionDan should have expected both lovers to die. There would only have been two town and one scum from each faction left. Town could only have voted for no execution, so what ActionDan said would have made no difference.

The only scenario where his words matter at all is the one we are in, where at least five players remain alive. Only way he could have expected that was if Furtive was his partner, otherwise he would have had to hope for a miracle. But even then, getting town Hugir executed would have helped very little. His partner would still have gotten in a shootout with rival scum.

ActionDan may have hoped for scum Hugir to be executed, which would leave his partner in endgame with two town players. To me, that sounds like the best hope he would have to win.

Something that also stands out to me in Hugir's scum claim is that scum could poison each other. If that was a lie, that should have tipped ActionDan off that the claim was fake and Hugir did not know his partner. But he entertained that claim, took it seriously enough to suggest a draw.
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Post Post #1630 (isolation #52) » Tue May 02, 2023 6:57 am

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In post 1604, furtiveglance wrote: Both players who scumclaimed yesterday are now agreeing that I'm the best elimination and won't listen to reason.

The other 2 players aren't here.
I'm here, it is just that I'm usually online at very different hours from most of you, and end up responding to posts made while I was asleep the next day.

Anyway, I have thought some more about what I said about ActionDan's claim and motivation, and there is one more explanation, that being that there was no specific motivation. More often than not, I do things without a plan in mind, just hoping for something good to come out of it somehow. I've also been in the position of caught scum before, and chosen to share some information with the town just because. Once I even gave up on my serial killer win condition entirely, thanks to an unplanned partner from hell outing me, and played as if I was a town vigilante. My point is, overanalyzing why ActionDan said what he did could lead us nowhere because there may not be a why.

There is also the balance angle to consider. Redirector and deflector do seem to even out, but checker and 1-shot loverizer clearly don't. Think of it as a vengeful role that only needs to pick their kill in advance. Loverizer would give one scum a free kill over the other.
In post 1590, Flavor Leaf wrote: The Flyer Vendor is actually a really cool role in the setup thanks to roleblock/redirect/anti redirect possibilities.
Unless it really is impossible to redirect, in which case it is just a red herring. Yes, I get the theory that Hugir was blocked and that is why my flyer got through, but I'm not convinced by it. We now know that Abnegation was a special miller, and without both factions having an investigation, her role would not make much sense.
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Post Post #1642 (isolation #53) » Tue May 02, 2023 10:19 am

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In post 1636, Hugir wrote: Hard disagree. He faked the guilty on me and self hammered. That alone shows that he had a motivation to further his win condition.
I agree that he was still playing to win. My point is, he may not have had a plan for how accusing you would help, but he may have done it anyway just hoping it would. It is plausible he would have done it without knowing Furtive would live.
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Post Post #1697 (isolation #54) » Wed May 03, 2023 2:48 am

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In post 1643, Flavor Leaf wrote: @Feysal - what are your thoughts on Furt?
Many of his posts have been very short, and I've found it hard to get any read from them. But there are a couple things that stand out - his decision to loverize Enchant and trying to divert to Hugir to save Abnegation.

The big question is, why choose Enchant as scum? It is easy to say how that was an excellent choice because Enchant was a cop, but how could Furtive have known that? It seems to me that it would have made more sense to tie yourself to someone more trusted, or even to claim you had loverized your partner to mislead the town. Instead choosing another player from the POE pool would only reduce the number of town executions you could push for.

Trying to save Abnegation is something that makes even less sense for scum. I got a sense of urgency from his post where he voted Hugir. He later said he would not mind ActionDan or the Keeper either, and switched to the Keeper. He literally said he would have preferred what have since become our main suspects or flipped scum, over town Abnegation. I can't think of any scum motivation for that, especially when his supposed partner ActionDan was voting Abnegation. Okay, maybe if he was Benediction he could have known we were wrong about Abnegation and genuinely wanted Malediction to be executed, but I find Hugir much more likely to be the last Benediction than him.

I've already mentioned the balance angle too, where a loverizer would be far stronger than a checker, which is just another reason why I don't think Furtive can be Malediction. We can't know if ActionDan knew he would survive either, or if they hoped for something else to happen.

My read is, very unlikely to be Malediction. Benediction is within the realm of possibility, but far behind Hugir in probability. Most likely, just town.
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Post Post #1698 (isolation #55) » Wed May 03, 2023 3:03 am

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In post 1649, Flavor Leaf wrote: Feysal could have just been targeted by IceDragon the day they died. They were strong town reading them. Was IceDragons ability permanent or night only.
Interesting theory. I checked his role PM, but it only says he could try to stop someone from being redirected. Mine also says I can try to give a flyer to someone else, and nothing else.

I don't think Hugir is lying about failing to redirect me, even if scum. They may be honestly wrong about their roleblock theory. This game has seen some strange actions already, like when there was a delay checking action resolution on night 3, and we still don't know what that was about.
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Post Post #1739 (isolation #56) » Thu May 04, 2023 4:38 am

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In post 1709, Flavor Leaf wrote: I think I'm giving it to Hugir if they're scum, but for the most part, they've made everything they've said make sense to the people within this game in someway.
This is my fear as well. I currently think Furtive is town, and if Hugir is scum here, Malediction cannot kill them because of the redirection.

I do feel like going for Benediction today is the right call, mostly because I'm far more certain of Hugir than I am of who Malediction is. I think I've made my thoughts about Furtive and the Keeper clear enough, but I'm not entirely certain of you either, although your interaction with ActionDan on day three makes it very unlikely. Assuming Hugir flipped Benediction, one of us would probably be killed, and that would solve that headache.

There are two things that make me suspect Hugir over Furtive. One, the claim about scum being able to poison each other was very specific, and should have tipped ActionDan off if it was a lie, but he took the claim seriously. And second, I believe the roleblocker theory arose from Hugir failing to redirect my flyer, but I'm not sure why blame that specifically on Furtive? Why not the Keeper, you or me?

Furtive is now one vote away from execution, and that is not making me comfortable. But it is high time I put my vote where my mouth is, if only to offer an alternative.

VOTE: Hugir
In post 1715, Hugir wrote: Oh yeah somebody said something about mech resolution thing during N3. That was clearly a problem of resolving my role and AD's role. I redirected the deflector to himself remember?
I'm sure it was. What I'm less sure of is what the difference would have been. It is safe to guess that ActionDan would have wanted to deflect investigations away from himself or his partner. If it was himself, your action could have caused Enchant to succeed. But if it was his partner, your action would have made no difference unless something was done to that partner, and I don't think anyone claimed such an action.

We may actually have a way to figure this out.

@Narration: Is it possible to self-target using abilities, for example, could I give a flyer to myself?
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Post Post #1746 (isolation #57) » Thu May 04, 2023 5:14 am

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In post 1740, Hugir wrote: The fact that he took it seriously means he didn't believe in his role symmetry that he claimed he believed.
Or he lied about scum not being able to kill each other. No, I don't think this clears you.
In post 1740, Hugir wrote: Secondly, asking why I didn't think the others as roleblocker… shows that you haven't been reading my posts.
If you're referring to you redirecting Furtive on night one and me last night, the problem is that it all relies on your word that this happened. And having both a checker and factional roleblock does seem odd to say the least.
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Post Post #1752 (isolation #58) » Thu May 04, 2023 6:37 am

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In post 1751, Hugir wrote: Adding to this, as scum why would I go for a misexecution when casing my scumread provides much more genuine result?
That's just it, I don't think you are. I believe your case makes sense to you, but I think you are genuinely wrong.

That said, I'm not exactly sure myself what has happened in this game either. I expect that revealing actions post-game will prove enlightening for town and scum alike.
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Post Post #1785 (isolation #59) » Mon May 08, 2023 4:11 am

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My time has been otherwise occupied recently, but it is the last day and I should make time for this. That said, there is not much new to say. The Keeper has had no interaction with ActionDan to speak of that could inform us, and Furtive has had no direct interaction either. But what I said yesterday about him trying to divert to Hugir while ActionDan pushed Abnegation still holds - that does not look like they would be partners. And if Hugir told the truth about trying to execute town yesterday, that was Furtive. All of this would add up to the Keeper being the last scum, except for one thing - Flavor Leaf was killed. He believed Furtive was scum, so why would the Keeper kill him?

There are also game mechanics, although they may not be of help to us now. Yesterday I had a hunch that Hugir had lied about redirecting ActionDan on night three, because I could not see how it would cause a conflict in action resolution - the result should have been nothing either way. Hugir claimed they had redirected ActionDan to Furtive instead, and this apparently messed up something. What I wonder is, why did Enchant live that night? ActionDan should definitely have killed him, especially if he knew Furtive would live because he was his partner.
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Post Post #1797 (isolation #60) » Wed May 10, 2023 1:41 am

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In post 1788, The Keeper wrote: Because at the time, I could have been green...
Actually, you being green would have been very unexpected after the way Rautherdir shaded your slot after being hammered. Why you were investigated remains something of a mystery. Self-targeting remains one explanation, or being targeted by a partner. It could also have been intended to frame you, but it would have been very early in the game for such a long term plan. Or, perhaps the investigation was not aimed at you at all, and it was somehow redirected, since we don't know what ActionDan did. Or even what Hugir did, though we have their claims.
In post 1795, furtiveglance wrote: Feysal, anything to say right now?
I do have one question for you. You said you thought you were a reasonable nightkill target, but it did not seem that way to me. I thought you were in the POE list at the time, more likely to be executed than killed. So, why did you think you would be killed?
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Post Post #1808 (isolation #61) » Thu May 11, 2023 12:46 pm

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In post 1802, The Keeper wrote: Feysal your absence is notable, I wish for your input on my musings. Furtive for what its worth, your input too.
I am here and have read everything you have said, but I'm not sure where you are going with this. Talking about which role is most likely to be scum sounds like trying to outguess the mod, and that is a game I have little interest in playing.

My thoughts are that from a flavor perspective, your role and mine are neutral, while Captivation would have been more likely to be Benediction. What kind of evil power would be based on love? And there is also the balance angle to consider. 1-shot loverizer would be like having a vengeful kill, significantly stronger than checker.
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Post Post #1812 (isolation #62) » Fri May 12, 2023 6:38 am

Post by Feysal »

In post 1811, furtiveglance wrote: You never know, we could both be town still and just be about to lose.
Unfortunately, you are right. I see no reason to twist the knife, rather I should just end this.

VOTE: The Keeper

I have won games as scum before, but with the exception of one supremely embarrassing off-site game, I'd never survived as scum. After all these years, I suppose I should feel pride for the accomplishment, but I feel nothing. I'm just glad it is over.

I expect I'll have more to say later, but for now, I can say that almost everything I said was genuine, except when it came to my partner. Fortunately for me, ActionDan made it easy to look the other way. And I meant what I said about this game being confusing for town and scum alike. We had some wild theories in our PT while we were trying to figure out who Benediction was, and even what happened during the nights. Until Hugir confessed, I did not know what had happened on night 3, only that the roleblocker theory could not be correct, but I thought Hugir might have genuinely believed it.

The game had some wild twists and turns, and twice I came close to claiming scum. At one point I already thought all was lost, and I could do nothing to stop Hugir from winning - and then, as if by miracle, Furtive survived.

For now, I thank all for the game. If you have any questions, ask away. I have nothing left to hide.
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Post Post #1832 (isolation #63) » Fri May 12, 2023 11:09 am

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So, redactions are still a thing? I'm fine with our PT being released as is. In fact, I intended some of it to be read by town all along.

My biggest question is, what happened on night 3? Hugir claimed they redirected from ActionDan to Furtive, ActionDan deflected actions from me to IceDragon, and I tried to kill Furtive. How did I fail? I said in the PT there would be rules lawyering post-game, and now is the time.

My real role name was Sedition by the way. It sounded too malicious so I changed it. Everything else about it was true though.

Our actions, if anyone is interested:

Night 1:
Feysal uses Benediction cop/poison doctor on the Keeper.
Feysal kills Hell Froze Over.
Feysal gives flyer to the Keeper.
ActionDan deflects from Feysal to Aisa.
We were trying to outguess Benediction, and thought they would investigate the Keeper based on what Rautherdir had said. We tried to cancel that investigation by picking the same target. It did not work, but it became a source of confusion for the rest of the game.

Night 2:
Feysal kills Aisa.
Feysal gives flyer to Abnegation.
ActionDan deflects from Feysal to IceDragon70.
Yes, Aisa was the intended target. We both believed Abnegation was Benediction after this night. I don't think either of us ever intentionally pushed for a town execution, not until the last day.

Night 3:
Feysal kills furtiveglance.
Feysal gives flyer to Hugir.
Feysal uses Benediction cop/poison doctor on Flavor Leaf.
ActionDan deflects from Feysal to IceDragon70.
This night was all kinds of confusing. I still don't understand how what happened, happened. We also did not actually know Hugir was scum yet. I thought it could be Flavor Leaf, but ActionDan bluffed that we had investigated Hugir instead. I did not actually know it was Hugir until they mentioned the poison.

Night 4:
Feysal gives flyer to Flavor Leaf.
I was getting desperate here. I was almost certain Hugir knew my identity and could hijack my kill, so I did not even try. I was not even worried about my own survival, I needed at least three town to survive and could not let Hugir use my kill against the town.

Night 5:
Feysal kills Flavor Leaf.
Feysal gives flyer to furtiveglance.
On the second last day, I absolutely needed Hugir gone. If anyone else was executed, it would doom both town and me. I considered claiming scum and voting for draw to avoid losing to Benediction. I was hours away from doing that when Hugir was hammered, and the rest is history.
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Post Post #1834 (isolation #64) » Fri May 12, 2023 11:19 am

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In post 1821, Aisa wrote: Congratulations to Malediction! I think it was well deserved. Thinking back on the game, it always felt like they were a little step ahead of town.
When you see our PT, you may change your mind about this. There were times when we were just as lost as town. At one point, I had a crazy theory of you being Benediction too, based on some weird role mechanics, which we quickly learned was incorrect.

I think this game was scum-sided. In our PT, after I realized just how much power we had, I said it felt like our main enemy was Benediction, while the town was an afterthought. That was part of why I would have preferred a draw or town win, rather than losing to Benediction.
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Post Post #1835 (isolation #65) » Fri May 12, 2023 11:31 am

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In post 1831, Aisa wrote: Yeah I thought Feysal did pretty well, too! I never said this in the spec PT but I remember townreading them and fangirling over their mech posts at one point :oops:
I'm honestly surprised by this. Historically, my scum games have ranged from mediocre to downright bad. I think what helped me was that this was my first game in years, and even a scum role could not kill my enthusiasm. Also, this was multiball, so for the first two days I could play as town. It was only on day three when I had to start making up excuses to suspect people of being Malediction, and people did notice how my heart was not in it. I'm not sure what I would have done as town from then on, but it would have been fair to expect something more.
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Post Post #1837 (isolation #66) » Fri May 12, 2023 11:42 am

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In post 1836, ActionDan wrote: Feysal meta:

Faraday
There may be some truth to this still. However, I've also been inactive in town games, even good ones where I had a major role in winning them. Now, if I play any more games, I don't know how my current meta will shape up to be.

Somehow I got through this game without being prodded once. I'm not certain, but that might also be a first for me.
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Post Post #1855 (isolation #67) » Sat May 13, 2023 11:55 am

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I suppose I need to make my question more explicit, because I do want to understand this. Even though it no longer matters.

@Narration:
What happened on night 3? How did Furtive survive our attempt to kill him?
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Post Post #1857 (isolation #68) » Sun May 14, 2023 12:32 am

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In post 1856, Enchant wrote: I know this, Benediction targeted Furtive with action which redirects other actions.
Hugir claimed to have redirected ActionDan to Furtive. However, I don't think this should have had the effect it did.

This game used TAR, or Triplicate Action Resolution. During day 4 I read that article in detail, trying to figure out what the hell had happened, and found the following clause:
Triplicate Action Resolution wrote:Targeting Clause - if a role has an effect that interferes with targeting, it cannot be affected by roles that interfere with targeting. This is to prevent headaches from both the players and the moderators.
Redirector and deflector are both roles that interfere with targeting, and according to this clause, they should not have interfered with each other.

This had some effects on the game beyond the obvious one of Furtive and Enchant surviving. My theory for what had happened was that Hugir had lied, and redirected me to myself instead of ActionDan. That could not have been deflected, so both the kill and investigation would have been redirected back to me. Those however could be deflected, and I thought ActionDan had deflected them to IceDragon. The one detail that did not add up was my flyer making it through, and when that appeared to have happened again the next day, I seriously considered the theory that I was secretly strong-willed, because nothing else seemed to make sense.

At the end of day 5 when I started talking about mechanics, I was trying to show that Hugir's claim of redirecting ActionDan could not have caused the conflict. I was hesitant to do it, because I thought Hugir had in fact redirected me, but it was my last option to expose them.

I think the end result was a better game, and I don't mean to complain, but I have to point out that this action resolution was according to my understanding incorrect.

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