Mini 2297 | Conception | Postgame

[IceDragon70]

By the way, who sent me that mysterious flyer?

Feysal, was that you?

You figured out my crumb, did you? I was wondering if anyone was ever going to say anything about them, the Keeper never did.

I suppose it is time to claim then. I'm Propagation. I hand out flyers. I'm basically a fruit vendor with a different flavor. I've given out two, one to the Keeper, the second to you.

I think Feysal's like so obviously Green Scum I almost don't want to believe it.

Then don't, because I'm not. I mean, if you had accused me of being Malediction, that I could have understood, but this?

I wrote the original case against Rautherdir at a time when he was widely townread. If not for that, Rautherdir would not even have been an option at the end of the day. Yes, he managed to fool me because he was playing to his town meta, making me think we had two rival wagons on town, and I did not like having to hammer him. Look at my post 589 and tell me if that looks like I would know he was about to flip Benediction?

Where was the crumb?

[IceDragon70]

@Feysal, post 589 is actually weird because you are hammering a person you allegedly believe is town, and prior to that you were actively avoiding their wagon at a time when a lot of evodence against them existed. I don't see it as any sort of defense.
What I am more interested in is who do you think is scum here? And what are your thoughts on FlavorLeaf and ActionDan?

[IceDragon70]

I said the last part because the defense feels weird and Feysal isn't scimhunting anymore, it seems.

[IceDragon70]

I read the D2 finally and… really all I saw was nigh-unanimous “kawaii obv greenscum kthxbye xoxo”

I’ll have to go back to D1.

Yeah we all f'ed up there.

I disagree, Kawaii was really scummy.

True. But it still sucked to have miselimed them.

[Flavor Leaf]

Always sucks to mislim.

It’s bonkers to expect a perfect town game every game. That’s like playing a fighting game, and saying “it sucks, they hit me with a single combo”

Sometimes the combo is broken, but it’s not the end of the world here imo.

[Feysal]

Where was the crumb?

Scummers of the world unite!

Propagation, propaganda. Came up with that one almost instantly.

@Feysal, post 589 is actually weird because you are hammering a person you allegedly believe is town, and prior to that you were actively avoiding their wagon at a time when a lot of evidence against them existed. I don't see it as any sort of defense.

Avoiding it? I started it. I left it because I lost confidence in my case after diving into Rautherdir's meta. And what else was I going to do one hour before deadline except hammer like I'd promised?

What I am more interested in is who do you think is scum here? And what are your thoughts on FlavorLeaf and ActionDan?

I believe I already made clear that I think Abnegation is Benediction, and her being blocked for two nights is the reason there have been no extra kills.

As for Malediction, I have a hard time buying that Furtive could be scum. He would have needed to choose that action last night, before Aisa died, when Malediction likely would not have known who the last Benediction was any more than the town would. Why double the risk of being nightkilled, or risk becoming lovers with Benediction? Malediction would have needed to be very certain they could correctly execute Benediction today or that Furtive's time was running out, and I don't see either as being necessarily true.

I would have to say my top suspect now for Malediction would be the Keeper. I'd noticed yesterday how silent they had become, how they cast single votes that never led to anything, and how they did not seem to care about being suspected, as if they had a get out of jail free card. I stayed silent, because the Keeper was my best bet for a cop laying low. Why did I think that? It was what BlueSnakelet was going on about on day one. I thought I had figured it out, and the revelation stuff in one of his posts was a crumb. But now, that defense has evaporated.

For the other Malediction, it would have to be one of ActionDan, Flavor Leaf and Hugir. Except for Flavor Leaf, because replacement, I've been town reading both since day one.

[Hugir]

Not Enchant
Not Abnegation
Not Furtive
Not IceDragon
Not FL

I don’t think benediction would have a fruit vendor and checker as power that sounds kinda terribad
Keeper ain’t Benediction unless mod is lying

So man is it really AD-green and Fey/Keeper-red

[Abnegation]

By the way, who sent me that mysterious flyer?

Feysal, was that you?

You figured out my crumb, did you? I was wondering if anyone was ever going to say anything about them, the Keeper never did.

I suppose it is time to claim then. I'm Propagation. I hand out flyers. I'm basically a fruit vendor with a different flavor. I've given out two, one to the Keeper, the second to you.

just flyer vendor? not even any sort of investigative modifier attached to it?

[Abnegation]

I don’t think benediction would have a fruit vendor and checker as power that sounds kinda terribad

was just going to say this.
i think fey red is pretty likely.

[Hugir]

Either I’ve been bamboozled hard before (both AD and Fey were strong townread D1 for me)
Or I’m being bamboozled hard right now (At least one of AD and Fey are town and I’m being rekt somewhere)

This is not a pleasant feeling

[Flavor Leaf]

I don’t think benediction would have a fruit vendor and checker as power that sounds kinda terribad

was just going to say this.
i think fey red is pretty likely.

I think the roleblock reason isn’t strong enough to have their confidence with it.


It’s a solid possibility, but I’m just getting vibes of them using that as a strong base for a misfade push.

[Abnegation]

that's what i was thinking.

[Abnegation]

I don’t think benediction would have a fruit vendor and checker as power that sounds kinda terribad

was just going to say this.
i think fey red is pretty likely.

mind you, feysal could be benediction if they're fruit vendor + something else.

[ActionDan]

Going over the last few pages.

First, it's quite a leap in logic to go with the "Furtive is scum on a sinking ship that wants to take down a townie with him" mindset; Furtive was not necessarily anyone's first choice of scum, to me he was squarely null and I don't remember anyone aside from Keeper saying otherwise. Secondly the benefit of latching on to Enchant comes with a few pretty offsetting negatives than the free townie erasure. 1) no one had any way of knowing Enchant was a cop and there was no guarentee he wouldn't be a target of erasure. 2) In multiball you're opening yourself up for a juicy double shot. Basically the extra exposure is almost never worth the risk, and that pain would be doubled if your partner dies first somehow.

Second, Abnegation's defense of suggesting the benediction faction doesn't have a standard kill and the evidence they cite to show that don't match up - and while I was looking at Mod's posts and Rauth's post what I think they do match up to and what I'm starting to believe is Ice's theory or something very similar. I'll go over both.

Mod posts: The only time the Mod has mentioned anything about scum in this setup is the general information post 2 and rauth's scum flip. from that we can see that it appears Benediction has 2 members and Factional abilities may or may not be non-standard. That 2nd sentence probably isn't talking about the factional kill. Rather I'm thinking about the message the Keeper got. That probably was a factional ability (because at this point it being unclaimed makes it way less likely a townie did that). Jump to Rauth's quotes:

Invocation is the means to obtain both Benediction and Malediction. Affiliation with either is yet to be decided, I'd rather neither as the

freedom to invoke both and maintain balance

is crucial.

Bolded is what I'm talking about.

if that’s true, can you guys do invocation a favour and shoot them?

Neither Benediction or Malediction's intent in finding each other is to kill, but something else, though death will be the end result. It's why I wouldn't have claimed benediction unless I was going to die, even as a last resort.
I won't spoil what it is though.

... At least I assume Malediction has a similar situation as us. I don't actually know for certain!

If Benediction / Malediction aren't trying to kill each other maybe they're trying to out each other, or at least have a factional ability that only very specifically affects / does something to them (which, btw, we haven't seen from green team). This would classify as non-standard surely. Obviously it would be tempting for Abnegation to try to finesse these into fitting in with an altered factional kill but there's evidence directly counter to that as well in that Rauth mentioned as quoted above that Malediction is in a similar situation to Benediction and we know Malediction can kill standardly. There would never have been a need to tell Malediction that green team wasn't specifically "killing" Hell Froze Over (btw where are you guys?). It's quite obvious that message was to encourage Red to take the free kill while green would target whomever they wanted to.

Basically I am not assuaged and still think there's a high possibility Abnegation is green.

Hmm, is it possible Scum knew Enchant was Parity Cop?

probably.

Why? FL wants to strongarm Furtive into a red scum slot; what reason do you have to think this?

I've read your posts FL for the last few pages with regard to how you got your reads and its very much reads as VCA ipso facto scum and there's some other problems too.

You're using VCA and not bothering to explore the context of any of the votes. And some of the claims you make about the VCA don't follow.

Gonna do some light VCA and see what I find. I might miss some Mech reasons/claims/actions in between, so bare with me

Spoiler:

Day 1 Count III

Rautherdir (3) - Feysal,

Hell Froze Over

, Enchant
Enchant (2) - The Keeper, Rautherdir
Hugir (1) - furtiveglance
IceDragon70 (1) - ActionDan

Not Voting

- Abnegation, IceDragon70, BlueSnakelet, GoldfishFromTheMoon, Hugir, KawaiiKame

Day 1 Count IV

IceDragon70 (

E-1

) - ActionDan, Rautherdir, Abnegation, furtiveglance, Feysal,

Hell Froze Over

Rautherdir (1) - Enchant
Hugir (1) - The Keeper

Not Voting

- IceDragon70, BlueSnakelet, GoldfishFromTheMoon, Hugir, KawaiiKame

These wagon shifts are interesting.

Rauth is under fire a bit, not a lot with Feysal and Hell Froze both on it. They both move over to the IceDragon wagon a bit later once it gains steam.

I believe there’s likely Rauth’s partner on IceDrag wagon to help support pressure off of them. It’s not 100%, but it definitely has a high probability.

However, I also think the other scum is on there for sure, at least one. That’s a large wagon in a multiball game on someone we now have reason to believe is much more likely to be town.

That IceDragon wagon is almost exactly where I was leaning had possible scum, from my limited point of view on the game, of course.

This VCA I’m doing is helping me get a bigger grasp on the game. Im gonna keep going.

Day 1 Final

Rautherdir (

Hammered

) - Enchant, IceDragon70, furtiveglance,

Hell Froze Over

, ActionDan, Abnegation, Feysal
IceDragon70 (2) - Rautherdir, KawaiiKame
Hugir (1) - The Keeper

Not Voting

- BlueSnakelet, GoldfishFromTheMoon, Hugir

This is neat. This is essentially the IceDragon Wagon, but on Rauth now.

If there’s 4 scum total, 3 scum on Rauth makes a lot of sense here.

I've striped the mech and Furtive bits out. The bolded does not have to be true at all and I would like you to explain why you think it ought to be more true than any other scenario where scum are off wagon without analyzing the contexts of the votes . The Ice wagon formed as did the Rauth wagon, because the active players found them scummy. And they were, and we correctly erased Rauth because he was the scummier of the two.

I agree with you that Rauth's partner would have an incentive to be on Ice dragon (this is why we erased Kawaii because they so cartoonishly voted Ice for incredibly spurious reasons), and in that vote count since it's not me and like, you seem to implicitly agree its not me, that would leave Feysal / Abnegation. Which you've identified. This would be where the usefulness of VCA ends and the place to actually, you know, look at their votes at the time and maybe comment on them but you don't do that.

Nor is that done for your fantasy red team of me / Furtive and the link between VCA and that conclusion is even more tenuous being only that we both voted for Ice Dragon. To me this feels like you just started from OMGUS because I stated that I would have voted for you and that Furtive simply did so and VCA was the best you could do to justify it.

Other issues:

Your Change of heart from Ab #1 green candidate to strong town vibe doesn't feel real in the span of a page.

Checking the night kills, Hell Froze Over died after calling out Feysal a little bit.

Aisa died after they had been Side eyeing Furt and Action a little.

Could indicate a trading pattern with kills too.

This is rewriting history. Aisa was quite obviously fingering Hugir and had a town read on me. I don't remember HFO's opinions ED1 but they were obviously killed because Benediction invited them to do so.

----

As for Feysal; I want to reread them and Hugir sometime when I get a chance (Honestly I need to reread everyone) but Feysal today certainly and to my recollection everyday prior has been town to me and pretty much echoing my own thoughts. The votes on them today are uncritical (including enchant's) and in FL and Abnegation's case likely opportunistic.

[ActionDan]

Either I’ve been bamboozled hard before (both AD and Fey were strong townread D1 for me)
Or I’m being bamboozled hard right now (At least one of AD and Fey are town and I’m being rekt somewhere)

This is not a pleasant feeling

So like; let's start small. Like real small.

Please look back on D1 and look at the votes for Ice / Rauth. Consider it homework. Tell me what you see

[Flavor Leaf]

I repeat.

Spicyy

[Enchant]

Where our IC

[ActionDan]

I write my posts nowadays in a way to try not to be spicy. Vibes are my enemy and I will slay them.

[Flavor Leaf]

Hmm, could have swore I saw some Aisa suspicion on AD, or at least the turning of. I’ll check tomorrow what I thought I saw, but it’s possible I misread on the skin through.

[Flavor Leaf]

To be fair, I did say I was going to do it strictly on VCA, and specifically wanted to do it without a lot of the context.

I believe it was a good starting point to get myself into this game.

I’m fully here now. Is it possible I’m dead backwards on some things. Sure, but I also feel like if you were to look from my pov, you could see why.

You brought up VCA and how I’m using it. I mean, sure, it’s not perfect, but generally Occam’s Razor with it is standard.

As someone who’s tried to do imbalanced scum teams before, until something proves the 2v2 untrue, I’m going to at least solve in that regard, because for the most part that is the ‘at least’ in my head. Each group is probably exactly that. Group. Or else it’d just be third party imo. So if it’s more like 2v2 unbalanced, then fine, but working off of 2v2 until 2 scum of one is flipped, doesn’t make a lot of different on scum hunting unless you’re specifically trying to preflip, which I haven’t been doing too much.

If the logic is off somewhere, I’m very willing to consider otherwise, I was kind of just saying whatever thoughts came to my head at face value.

In regards to Feysal/Rauth, idk. Their posts look like distancing to me.


What good would flip flopping on Abnegation that way do me as scum? You think a person can’t immediately flip a read after working things through? They were also directly interacting with me more, so I feel at least a friendly banter easily could warrant it based on how I felt during them and I talking to each other.

I didn’t feel like they were trying to do anything to deceive me at all, and they were even here helping me work things out.

We both landed on Feysal, which I think is common ground and makes sense I could town read them considering we share the same read, at the very least pressuring together is really only beneficial to at least see what happens gamestate wise.

Why wouldn’t it seem real?

[Flavor Leaf]

And it’s your play that appears from my pov to be coming from scum that I find spicyy. I’m not like positive on it by any means, but I think it was definitely worth working into.

It’s very logic based.

Would you say you’re the type of player who as Scum still likes to make sure everything you do has some sort of logic behind it and you generally like to come across as townie when you’re scum?

[Feysal]

Just flyer vendor? Not even any sort of investigative modifier attached to it?

Not to my knowledge. The thought did occur to me after the Keeper was confirmed as not Benediction though, the same night I gave them a flyer, that perhaps I had not been told everything about my role. That is part of why I gave you one, to see if anything would happen..

Not Abnegation

Why are you ruling Abnegation out?

Please look back on D1 and look at the votes for Ice / Rauth. Consider it homework. Tell me what you see.

I did. And I found one thing I had forgotten.

Unfortunately, I don't think that's AI for them. We could try flashwagoning them though if you want to.

This was Abnegation talking about KawaiiKame, six hours before the deadline. I was aware of the risk of no execution, and without this I would not have even tried going after KawaiiKame. It was subtle to be sure, but Abnegation did make this one attempt to steer votes away from Rautherdir and IceDragon.

I also was reminded how she helpfully made vote counts for us, which by itself is non suspicious, but it is something scum can do to appear helpful.

[Flavor Leaf]

Hi boonskies!

Nice to see you here! we probably aren't town together this game but I'll be able to properly read your posts tomorrow night

It’s this type of post.

This is a super strong move that comes off super genuine.

It’s a precursor and setup for a 1v1, and reinforces the idea that we’re a TvS pairing, which I don’t think is true by default and that there isn’t a T/T possibility.

This, my friends, is a Mafia master, both alignments.

[Flavor Leaf]

I can see worlds where Furt is town here with an AD scum. I’m trying to think if it’s better for scum to shoot there rather than fade, but my mech brain is off right now

[furtiveglance]

Flavor Leaf, Keeper, Hugir are my top scum candidates right now.