Mini 650: Over

[OverCaffeinated]

Vote: Brandi

It's clear that KrisReizer is scum due to the late confirmation. We all know that scum are too busy skulking about doing scummy things and are too busy to check their mail.

And since we know that KrisReizer is scum, Brandi's vote right out of the gate seems like a way to distance herself from her scum compatriot.

Also the random number generator came up with a 1 so taken with the other points, it is evident that Brandi is most likely a potential candidate for possibly being scum.

[OverCaffeinated]

The answer to your question is neither. That's why they're called random votes. Whether you vote for yourself or someone else, it's entirely meaningless. For example: if I were scum, the fact that I voted for Kmd could mean I'm town because I'm voting, or scum because I'm voting, only I have ulterior motives. Either way, it's impossible to tell from the random vote. WIFOM, mate.

But it's so simple. All I have to do is divine from what I know of you: are you the sort of man who would put the poison into his own goblet or his enemy's? Now, a clever man would put the poison into his own goblet, because he would know that only a great fool would reach for what he was given. I am not a great fool, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you. But you must have known I was not a great fool, you would have counted on it, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me.

Furthermore, just because a vote for oneself is anti-town in one scenario, in this case the one in which everyone does so, has no bearing on whether or not that vote would be anti-town in any other scenario. That's what the scholars call a Simulation Heuristic

Anyone who uses the term "Heuristic Simulation" in a mafia game is way to smart to be just an average townie. Now the odds are probably close to even on a power role verse being scum, but the impact of lynching a scum on day one is much greater to our success of winning then losing a power role.

Unvote: Brandi

Vote: KrisReizer

On a serious note though, if you do care about the town winning, don't vote for yourself. Yes we don't know who the scum are and it is a random vote, but the scum

do

know who they are and their votes are more then just random. In the upcoming days the votes on day one do become valuable information.

[OverCaffeinated]

OC, what is the point in moving off of one random vote into another random vote? I seriously doubt you consider intelligence as a scum tell. So was their really a point in that?

One word, comedy.

Also it is important to have people vote. Although it doesn't mean much when a townie gets lynched, when we find a scum his voting record is one of the best pieces of evidence we have at finding his buddies. That is why it is important as a townie to vote and to put pressure on everyone to do so as it forces the scum to go on the record too.

The games where people vote and vote a lot tend to be townie wins where games where the scum can lurker go in their favor.

And before someone brings up the WIFOM argument about scum voting patterns, I know the arguments, but I contend that only becomes the case when there is an extreme amount of voting and the votes start to lose their value in the volume of vote switching.

[OverCaffeinated]

I totally agree with that. However, what do you think of self-voting? Do you think it is as good as just normally voting, or is it better/worse and why. What do you think about FFB's self-vote.

From the bottom of my earlier post:

On a serious note though, if you do care about the town winning, don't vote for yourself. Yes we don't know who the scum are and it is a random vote, but the scum

do

know who they are and their votes are more then just random. In the upcoming days the votes on day one do become valuable information.

Basically a vote for yourself doesn't tell us anything which in turn doesn't help the town win.

[OverCaffeinated]

Anyone who uses the term "Heuristic Simulation" in a mafia game is way to smart to be just an average townie. Now the odds are probably close to even on a power role verse being scum, but the impact of lynching a scum on day one is much greater to our success of winning then losing a power role.

To begin, vocabulary does not have the slightest bit of connection to whether a player is town or scum, nor does it indicate a power role.

Again, it was obviously meant in humor since we don't get to choose our roles and I would hope the moderator randomly distributed the roles.

Second, your argument about the impact of a scum lynch seems half-baked to me. If there is a doctor, that's a possible NK stolen from the scum each night. If there's a cop, that's a ton of information. Townie power roles seem to me to be much more beneficial than reducing the scum population by one, which will not affect night kills, which are an automatic townie death as opposed to the possible scum death allotted by lynching. Please feel free to respond here, I'd like further clarification.

I'm not going to get into a huge statistical analysis debate on the value of roles, but similar to chess, you can break down their values. Although it varies from game to game, generally a scum is worth three vanilla townies. A doctor or investigator is worth 1.5 townies (since on average a doctor will save another townie only half the time before they get killed or an investigator will find a scum half the time before they die).

Although we can debate the exact difference, generally the benefit of getting a scum kill is worth losing a power role and hence my comment.

On a serious note though, if you do care about the town winning, don't vote for yourself. Yes we don't know who the scum are and it is a random vote, but the scum

do

know who they are and their votes are more then just random. In the upcoming days the votes on day one do become valuable information.

Possibly. However, as I have already stated, this is a WIFOM scenario. It doesn't seem to me that you have any basis for reading into someone's random vote. The fact that you would be so quick to judge seems an indicator that you possess knowledge of alignments. This would be a scum tell.

That was not a "Wine In Front Of Me" argument. My argument is very clear and not circular at all.
Random voting on day 1 is all fine and grand, and if you look back, is exactly what I did. My point was that when you do a random vote, you need to take yourself out of the choices.

[OverCaffeinated]

We need to force these players to post and stop lurking.

Unvote:

Vote: Inquisitor JL

[OverCaffeinated]

Light-kun does sound a bit scummy to me too, but I really think we are better off with lynching a less active player on day one then someone who has gone out of their way to post a lot. I don't think an experience mafia player would be so active if they were scum. And if it is a rookie mistake we can take care of it on day two.

I'm sorry i haven't posted much the past few days. Work got the better of me last week and then i was away from the computer this weekend.

[OverCaffeinated]

...And I'm not going to throw down a vote when I haven't seen much of anyone else. (That's my play style - very conservative with my vote, as opposed to those who use it as a pressure tool. This tends to make me the hammerer.)...

Huge

FOS: hitogoroshi

for this playing style. Holding back your vote so as to not give out unneeded information is a standard scum tactic.

[OverCaffeinated]

...And I'm not going to throw down a vote when I haven't seen much of anyone else. (That's my play style - very conservative with my vote, as opposed to those who use it as a pressure tool. This tends to make me the hammerer.)...

Huge

FOS: hitogoroshi

for this playing style. Holding back your vote so as to not give out unneeded information is a standard scum tactic.

So, rather than just having the style, I'm scum for saying it...? If you really want, do the meta analysis of my last game (Newbie 620). It's how I played then, as town, and it's how I'm playing now, as town. I just thought I'd say why I'm not bandwagoning people just for not posting. Sheesh.[/url]

Your playing style does not help the town find scum, it just helps you live longer.

I used to play the exact same way. I would pat myself on the back for making it to the end of the game alive even though the town lost. Then I noticed that in the games where people voted more often that the odds of the town winning went up.

[OverCaffeinated]

Obviously, but my point is that the replacements do not yet have anything posted by them or their predecessors, and thus, I have no reason to vote them...yet.

You should be voting for people to get them to talk. You are basically telling the scum that lurking is an effective way to hide and not get voted on by you.

Speaking of which...

unvote

Vote: FlyingFoxBat

Haven't heard from him in quite a while.

[OverCaffeinated]

OC, what's your opinion about LK, and the way some people reacted to him?

Generally speaking, a lot of talking is good for us and bad for the scum.

That being said, he is very excited about this game which usually means someone is either scum or has a power role. I really haven't got a good feeling for which.

As for how others are reacting to him, I think it's good to put pressure on players to see how they react. In this case it seems to have gone too far as it has turned into a bit of a witch hunt. But then again, this is mafia and it usually does.

[OverCaffeinated]

Sorry, I unexpectedly went out of town for five days and my laptop died

I need to reread this thread from the beginning. I'll write up my analysis and give you all something to talk about later today.

[OverCaffeinated]

I'm not a big fan of lynching any of the most active players on day 1. That being said, after rereading all 15 pages of comments both Light-kun and afatchic/KrisReizer posts seem especially scummy to me.

I find it difficult to distinguish between the chatter of a scum player verse someone that has a role. As i had speculated previously (and got chastised for) I felt that Light-kun falls into one of those two catagories.

In light of not having a counter claim to Light-kun's role claim, i'm voting for afatchic.

Vote: afatchic

[OverCaffeinated]

Since I’m a bit of a mathematician, I’m a big fan of statistical analysis.

Voting since the beginning of the game:

TheInvisibleCop

Brandi

Voted for:

KrisReizer

omni Voted for:

sirdanilot, Light-Kun, KrisReiser, Light-kun

SensFan

Inquisitor JL

Voted for:

omni, Sirdanilot, Light-kun, afat

sirdanilot Voted for:

FlyingFoxBat, lightkun, Sensfan, lightkun, SensFan, flyingfoxbat,

OverCaffeinated Voted for:

Brandi, KrisReizer, Inquisitor JL, FlyingFoxBat, afatchic

drake_259

dalt54321

Voted for:

omni, flyingfoxbat

FlyingFoxBat Voted for:

FlyingFoxBat

hitogoroshi Voted for:

Inquisitor JL, Light-kun

someone2 Voted for:

dalt54321, Kmd, afatchic

Light-kun Voted for:

OverCaffeinated, Brandi, Sensfan, omni

Kmd4390 Voted for:

Light-kun, kris, omni, afat, omni

afatchic

KrisReizer

Voted for:

Kmd, Light-kun, Sensfan, Someone2, omni

I did not count

Fingers of Suspicion

in my tally since they don’t pose any real risk to the player fingering.

Although not so important on day 1, this information is very useful for determining relationships between players. I would really like to see more voting from those with two or less votes.

Since most of those players are inactive, i'm voting for hitogoroshi.

Unvote

Vote: hitogoroshi

[OverCaffeinated]

Hey, news flash, OC. We talked about my playstyle over ten pages ago. Yes, a lot of people don't agree with it, but if you have a problem, why not bring it up then? I'll admit that this post shows you put almost no force behind votes, but I try to be more deliberate with mine. I've said this before, and really, move on. If you think I'm hiding something, ask me on THAT.

I did bring it up then.

...And I'm not going to throw down a vote when I haven't seen much of anyone else. (That's my play style - very conservative with my vote, as opposed to those who use it as a pressure tool. This tends to make me the hammerer.)...

Huge

FOS: hitogoroshi

for this playing style. Holding back your vote so as to not give out unneeded information is a standard scum tactic.

So, rather than just having the style, I'm scum for saying it...? If you really want, do the meta analysis of my last game (Newbie 620). It's how I played then, as town, and it's how I'm playing now, as town. I just thought I'd say why I'm not bandwagoning people just for not posting. Sheesh.[/url]

Your playing style does not help the town find scum, it just helps you live longer.

I used to play the exact same way. I would pat myself on the back for making it to the end of the game alive even though the town lost. Then I noticed that in the games where people voted more often that the odds of the town winning went up.

Your playing style is clearly bad if you are pro town and good if you are scum. And you are becoming very defensive and almost hostile. I voted for you to prod you into voting, but now I am thinking I'm on to something.

[OverCaffeinated]

Sucks to lose the power roles, but I’ll trade a day 1 scum kill for a cop and doctor any day. We have a ton of information now and locating the remaining scum should be easy (except if we have an SK).

Lets look at the final votes on Afatchic:

afatchic (7) - TheInvisibleCop, someone2, Electra, Kmd4390, SensFan, hitogoroshi, Light-kun

Clearly the votes prior to Kmd4390 role claim are not part of the scum faction. The only exception I would make to that is the potential that TheInvisibleCop could be a scum ruse and that he failed to remove his vote prior to going inactive.

So that makes someone2 and Electra definitely not part of the scum group with AfatChic (still could be SK)

Although SensFan switched his vote back to Afatchic after the role claim by Kmd4390, he did it right away and scum would probably not do that.

Hitogoroshi jumped in more at the end when it was obvious afatchic was going to get lynched. I’m not going to go so far as say that makes him scum, but it doesn’t confirm he is pro-town.

With 8 other players left, then subtracting someone2, Electra, and SensFan from the list, we are left with these 5 players that can be the scum:

TheInvisibleCop
omni
sirdanilot
drake_259
hitogoroshi

[OverCaffeinated]

I think your arguments about Electra are ok ones Sirdanilot, but I really doubt the third person to vote for AFatChic would be scum. In that light, your arguments against Electra seem to be stretched and manufactured. I don’t know if it is from OMGUS, or you are a scum trying to create doubt, or both.

But whatever the reason, you are trying to lynch one of the three players I am pretty sure are townies.

Vote: sirdanilot

[OverCaffeinated]

Can we get a vote count?

Couple of observations.

I don't see Electra and sirdanilot both being scum. It's either one or the other or neither are scum. Either that or they are both fantastic actors.

Electra comment about SensFan's style was very harsh. Almost too harsh. Almost contrived... I have thought both to be more likely townies, but now I am having doubts about my feelings.

It's great that we like to chatter, but nothing is risked without voting. Good townies vote. Scum hate to commit.

[OverCaffeinated]

OC, would you like to reply to my case on you? You simply blatantly ignored it, and I'm very disappointed since I spent a long time on that case. Post #554 (last page). I also think it's scummy to avoid a case like that, a townie would've jumped on it and commented on the things he doesn't agree with.

I saw your post but didn’t know how to respond. I whole heartedly disagree with what you think is scummy and what you don’t. I constantly disagree with much of what you have to say.

To specifically get to why I voted for you, it is just because you voted for Electra who was the third person to vote to lynch for AFatChic who ended up being scum. I really doubt that the scum would purposely vote early on for one of their own and that they would keep their vote on him long enough to lynch him. Especially on a day one.

I am worried that this is some sort of scum bandwagon to get rid of the couple of townie who proved themselves on day 1 by their votes. I much rather go after someone who is on my list I made back on post 495.

TheInvisibleCop
omni
sirdanilot
drake_259
hitogoroshi

I really don’t have any clue who on this list is more scummy then the next. I just don’t feel confident enough to vote for Electra.

[OverCaffeinated]

Sure, fine. This game's not really going anywhere anyway.

I'm a doctor.

That's why I didn't believe afat's claim. I was planning to counterclaim if no one wanted to bandwagon, but Kmd counterclaimed first, so there was no reason for me to.

I can't protect the same person twice in a row, or else they'll get overdosed and die. So I assume that's why Light died- because Kmd and I both protected him (I didn't protect Kmd because I wasn't sure about his claim, but if I had, then I assume that there would have been no deaths. That's why it was so annoying.)

It was plainly obvious you were a townie Electra, and it really sucks that you had to claim to prevent getting lynched.

Interestingly, several people that had a lot to do with Electra needing to roleclaim were also on my scumlist from their voting pattern on day 1.

Something is rotten in the state of Denmark and I think it's Sirdanilot.

And LOL at your OMGUS vote.

[OverCaffeinated]

525 may be confusing for you so I can rephrase it.

OC basically says the following. If OC or you wish to correct me, go ahead.

First of all, Electra being scum doesn't seem likely to him. Mainly because Electra voted early to kill arafat.

He also says that your arguments on Electra are 'ok' but that it doesn't make sense for you to attack Electra as scum since based on her vote she should be town. This is the contradiction he is pointing out, not that you argument are 'ok' but that it is WEIRD for you to focus on Electra when she seems highly unlikely.

it is because of that that he votes for you, and that I vote for you. It is the discrepancy of you IGNORING day 1 completely (except Sir's self vote).

So while OC said it differently, he *is* saying you are trying too hard to get a 'almost confirmed townie' lynched and that this ISN'T normal.

You then say point #2. That your arguments are valid. Well the problem is, your arguments *would* be valid if Electra hadn't voted on day 1 to kill Arafat. So your arguments are ok, but as to why you would make them on pounce on her 'bad statements/anti-town/scum' etc. doesn't make sense.

This is dead on and is exactly why I’ve kept my vote on Sirdinalot.

Another interesting point to ponder though, is Sensfan relentless attacking of Electra a failure to understand the argument above, or an attack from a scum trying to kill a doctor and/or a defense of Sirdinalot, or is it just that she thinks Electra is a SK?

The only possibilities I see with electra is that he is who he claims to be, or is a SK. I found his role claim to be convincing, at least enough so that I am reluctant to lynch him unless given proof that we have an SK (like two night kills again tonight).

Actually, have Sensfan or Sirdinalot ever voted for each other in any meaningful way? If it wasn’t for the fact Sensfan had the 5th vote on AFatChick, I would be voting for her instead.

[OverCaffeinated]

LOL we're as divided as ever.

[OverCaffeinated]

Not scum based on voting pattern the day before Corvuus and Electra

I had put iamusername and SensFan in a pretty sure they are not scum catagory because of their voting for afatchic, but now i am having doubts about SensFan.

As we probably have more scum out there beyond Sirdanilot, I would like to hear more from Hitogoroshi and omni on their votes of Wall-E and I would like to hear from iamusername about his vote on omni.

[OverCaffeinated]

My #1 suspicion is still on Sir. I can state my reasons but I think OC should respond to Sir's PBPA, etc. first.

Because you asked, here it is.

OC PbPA

Firstly, note the infrequency of OCs posts. This is not a scum tell in itself, but it's worth noting.

Agreed and I need to post more.

1 - The infamous jokey-vote on KrisReizer, which I deemed a town-tell at the time. Thing is, it continued the joking phase of the game, essentially giving OC a second random vote, krisreizer. So yeah, I don't think this is that good (scummy)

I did it for the comedic value. Though I do agree that it didn’t help the town.

2 - This game theory post is not that bad. However, he says it's important to get people to vote, but a second random vote just doesn't help in my opinion. And then he says that voting so much that 'votes lose their value'is bad. And he admits that his second random vote was a joke vote, so yeah I think this is scummy too. (scummy)

Voting is good as it is important to force the scum to go on the record. It also gives us something to review in the end game. So voting and voting a lot helps, but if you vote too much (like for more then 50% of the players alive) it shows a lack of conviction and makes it seem like your early voting for your scum compatriots.

5 - I don't like this. Lurking is not a scum-tell at all times, since there may be tons of reasons for lurkers to lurk, including many that are not game related. (scummy)

I agree that lurking isn’t always a scum tell. But lurking tends to be a viable scum tactic in games where the players let them get away with it.

6 - BAD BAD BAD BAD. He prefers to lynch inactive players over active players that are scummy (and yes, lk was scummy at the time). Not a way to play the game. (very scummy)

It is unusual for the scum to let one of their own get lynched on day one. Baring a mistake, it’s usually impossible for the town to get enough momentum to lynch someone the scum don’t want them to lynch. That is why I am a proponent of setting the ground rules on lurking.

9 - BAD too, more or less the same as 5, but now he tells people to do the same as he does. (scummy)

I don’t see how this is bad. Refer to my response to number 5

10 - This is scummy. He explicitly doesn't take a stance on LK, he even speculates between power-roles and scum. He said lk seemed 'excited' about the game, how is that a tell of any sort? (scummy)

I think I’m pretty good at spotting scum, but I (and many other people) sometimes get the behavior of a player with a pro-town power role confused with the behavior of scum. One of the “tells” that a player is scum is a lot of activity. Usually only very experienced players understand how to properly play a vanilla townie and have fun with it. Many newer players get bored with the game unless they have a fun role or are scum. Therefore activity level is indeed a tell and possibly an indicator that they are scum.

12 - ... and he posts 9 days later. 'Not a big fan of lynching active players', that's a scum tell as I mentioned earlier. He limits himself to the two biggest suspects and decides to vote afatchic. In my opinion, not really something a mafia wouldn't do to his partner, but not sure. (scummy-null)

This right here should have put me on your townie list.

13 - Bad. The sheer quantity of votes doesn't matter that much, he doesn't take the reasoning and situations into account at all. An effort to look helpful. (scummy)

I am at a total loss as to why you find this post scummy. This post was dead on and since I probably listed the remaining scum in a short list. I think that is why you are attacking me and this post. My logic seems simple and easy to understand, I think I just hit the nail on the head and that is why you’re attempting to find fault with it.

15 - This is one of the most interesting posts.

Clearly the votes prior to Kmd4390 role claim are not part of the scum faction. The only exception I would make to that is the potential that TheInvisibleCop could be a scum ruse and that he failed to remove his vote prior to going inactive.

So that makes someone2 and Electra definitely not part of the scum group with AfatChic (still could be SK)

I wonder why you're so sure about that?

Although SensFan switched his vote back to Afatchic after the role claim by Kmd4390, he did it right away and scum would probably not do that.

I think this reasoning is flawed, scum could very well do that, since kmd was WAY less likely to be lynched than afat, and they'd want to distance themselves from afat before it'd be too late.

I think the reasoning is pretty solid. Those votes were done early enough that when they were made, afatchick wasn’t threatened by getting lynched. It’s these votes that actually put him in that position. And that is why those players are the ones that are least likely to be scum.

16 - And I have told you why this post was so bad on the previous page. Quoting my own post for reference.

I think your arguments about Electra are ok ones Sirdanilot, but I really doubt the third person to vote for AFatChic would be scum.

Why?

In that light, your arguments against Electra seem to be stretched and manufactured. I don’t know if it is from OMGUS, or you are a scum trying to create doubt, or both.

First my arguments are ok. Now they are bad. This doesn't make sense, what a horrible reason to vote me, OC.

My vote is not OMGUS at all. I specifically explained my vote and why it is not omgus.

But whatever the reason, you are trying to lynch one of the three players I am pretty sure are townies.

Vote: sirdanilot

And I am not sure at all that electra is a townie. I am entitled to my opinion, and I am only contributing to the town by scumhunting.

OC, how about build a case on me or something if you think I am scum? Because right now you are just assuming that I am scum which allows you to read my OK arguments to vote Electra in a different light. This is not a good reason to vote me.

Electra, you failed to address all my points and defenses in #523. Reply to it.

This re-read made OC rise on my suspicion list.

FoS OC

. I don't feel comfortable voting him over Electra yet though, I want to hear more from him first.

As I have stated previously, I voted for you solely on the fact you were voting to lynch one of the two players that we knew from the day 1 vote record that they were most likely townies. That is a HUGE scum tell. Since then your OMGUS vote, your ceaseless attacking of Corvuus and this apparent affinity with SensFan have given me more reasons.

I am tempted to change my vote just to get the game moving again, but I just cant seem to find any candidate better then sirdanilot to vote for.

[OverCaffeinated]

Lame that we lynched Wall-E when there were better candidates, but not the end of the world. Sucks losing Electra as she was in my mind the most sure to be pro-town.

To tell you the truth, I need to re read the entire thread from the beginning. It's been too many days since the last time i posted and have forgotten my reasoning why i thought some people were more scummy then others.

I'll spend my lunch hour doing that and try to put together some kind of informed opinion.

[OverCaffeinated]

Sucks losing Electra as she was in my mind the most sure to be pro-town.

Vote: OC

Not sure why the vote was for, but if you need a reminder of my analysis at the begining of day 2 and my reasoning for it, i've quoted it for you.

Sucks to lose the power roles, but I’ll trade a day 1 scum kill for a cop and doctor any day. We have a ton of information now and locating the remaining scum should be easy (except if we have an SK).

Lets look at the final votes on Afatchic:

afatchic (7) - TheInvisibleCop, someone2, Electra, Kmd4390, SensFan, hitogoroshi, Light-kun

Clearly the votes prior to Kmd4390 role claim are not part of the scum faction. The only exception I would make to that is the potential that TheInvisibleCop could be a scum ruse and that he failed to remove his vote prior to going inactive.

So that makes someone2 and Electra definitely not part of the scum group with AfatChic (still could be SK)

Although SensFan switched his vote back to Afatchic after the role claim by Kmd4390, he did it right away and scum would probably not do that.

Hitogoroshi jumped in more at the end when it was obvious afatchic was going to get lynched. I’m not going to go so far as say that makes him scum, but it doesn’t confirm he is pro-town.

With 8 other players left, then subtracting someone2, Electra, and SensFan from the list, we are left with these 5 players that can be the scum:

TheInvisibleCop
omni
sirdanilot
drake_259
hitogoroshi

[OverCaffeinated]

Afatchic was threatened from the moment that kmd claimed. I don't believe that SensFan is clear because of that at all (although I don't really suspect him at the moment).

Who cleared her? I said Sensfan vote at the end of day 1 and the timing of it made her less likely to be mafia, but I never cleared her. As a mater of fact I’ve find this defensiveness you have with Sensfan to be evidence of a link.

As for electra, you admit it yourself, he could've been SK. Re reading now, I can see that you were so convinced that he was town, but don't forget that alignments were unknown at the time.

Looking above, you see that I caveted in parentheses that they could still be SK. Of course voting patterns are not going to pick up unassociated scum. Truthfully I don’t even know how to find Serial Killers in this game. For all intents and purposes they post and vote like townies. Sucks when they are in a game.

As I have stated previously, I voted for you solely on the fact you were voting to lynch one of the two players that we knew from the day 1 vote record that they were most likely townies. That is a HUGE scum tell. Since then your OMGUS vote, your ceaseless attacking of Corvuus and this apparent affinity with SensFan have given me more reasons.

I am tempted to change my vote just to get the game moving again, but I just cant seem to find any candidate better then sirdanilot to vote for.

Electra could have been a SK, I found his actions day 2 unlikely for a townie at the time. I really don't see why this is such a huge scum tell. I'm not sure what you're referring to with my 'ceasless attacking of corvuus' nor my 'apparent affinity with SensFan'.

Yes, Electra

could

have been an SK. So could have anyone else. But Electra probably wasn't going to be one of the associated scum. And Electra's roleclaim was fitting with the text of night 1. Electra was of all the people, the least likely to be scum at that point.

You have voted for Electra, you've voted for Corvuus who was the third vote on AFatChick, and you threw the hammer on Wall-E to save yourself.

Vote: Sirdanilot

[OverCaffeinated]

Sorry for messing up your gender, Sensfan.

[OverCaffeinated]

Huh, wait... I don't remember ever voting corvuus, but my memory of this game is a bit foggy. And I just looked through all my posts and I never voted corvuus. I think you need to re read the game, or maybe it's just too early for me and I need to look better and reread the part where I supposedly voted corvuus.

I just read back and you are right. I may have got Corvuus and Electra confused. I certainly had them high on my list.

You did keep your vote on Electra for a while though and you kept trying to make a case against her along with Sensfan.

I didn't throw the hammer on walle to save myself. You're doing a classic bad logic here, hammering town doesn't make someone scum.

No it doesn't, but if it wasn't for the wagon on Wall-E you would have been the one to get lynched. You were definetly saving yourself and as it turns out, at the expense of a townie.

I kept waiting and waiting for you to post the reply to my pbpa, but you didn't, so I decided to move on. And guess what, the reply came in twilight! Now there's a small chance that this was coincidence so I didn't vote you for that, but it does say something, doesn't it.

I am embarrassed to admit it, but I didn't realize at the time that the hammer had been thrown. I wouldn't have posted if it had realized it.

And for the record, I responded to your pbpa on me because Corvuus requested it.

[OverCaffeinated]

Third:
If possible, I would like to know everyone's top 2 scum list. As I mentioned, I think there is definitely 2 left and I want to know more than players just voting one person and not saying anything. It isn't acceptable at this point anymore to lynch like we lynched Wall-E.

Fourth:

I would also like to know everyone's top 2 town list. Who you think are leaning town and why. Example: I think OC's posts on Electra plausibly being 2nd doc make me think he is more pro-town. I would like everyone to do the same.

I think that Sirdanilot is scum and I think that you (Corvuus) is pro-town. At the moment, i don't have any other strong feelings one way or another about the other players. I felt for a while the Sensfan was pro-town, but now I'm not sure because of Sirdanilot. Same goes with Hitogoroshi, he seems to be supporting Sirdanilot without an apparent reason. Actually, I will certainly think about voting for him if Sirdanilot turns out to be scum.

Now that I think about it, Sensfan was the fourth vote on a day 1 lynch of a scum, and he hasn't really been supporting sirdanilot, but more of Sirdanilot supporting him. Maybe a case of scum trying to buddy up to a town player to get them to vote their way.

If I had to pick one more person that I think could be pro-town beside Corvuus, it would be iamausername. That is based totally on his vote for Afatchick on day one though.

I don't have a read on Omni. He doesn't post a lot and when he does, doesn't seem to take sides.

So in order from most scummy to least scummy
Sirdanilot
Hitogoroshi
Sensfan
Omni
Iamausername
Corvuus

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I think this is definetly time to role claim.

I am a Townsperson.

I was going to post something about my PM, but it would probably break the game. But it was almost exactly like the one posted in the game setup.

[OverCaffeinated]

I don't know exactly what you are trying to gain by distorting the truth, but any doubt I had about you being scum has just disappeared. Townies have nothing to gain from misrepresentation and twisting of history.

Let's lynch Sirdanilot.

[OverCaffeinated]

Welcome Adel. Nice to have another experienced player here.

[OverCaffeinated]

Wow Adel, thats some really neat stuff. You're going to have to tldr it for me when you finish your analysis as I am having a tuff time following the information.

In my limited experience, I find that the less experienced scum players tend to directly defend their scum compatriots in their posts. Moderately experienced scum players start bandwagons to defend. Experienced players tend to avoid the bandwagon like the plague unless they voted first. I think we need to take your analysis in context of the player in question.

Question for you. Do you count a wagon increase for someone that turns out to be a scum player? I would think many moderate to experienced scum players would want to get on a wagon to lynch their own compatriot when it becomes clear that they are going to be lynched.

[OverCaffeinated]

[quote="Adel"]What is your experience? Where else have you played?
[quote]
I've been playing a few years on a guild forum for a game called cybernations. We have a commuynity fo 20 or so regular players and we have one or two games going at all times. I've also been playing various live versions of the games at cons and in the past couple years at parties.

[OverCaffeinated]

Sorry I haven’t posted much. I’ve been doing a lot of traveling with work, though thankfully I should be in town for a while now.

I very pleasantly surprised to see the amount of posting has increased. Adel has certainly made this game more exciting.

I’m going to ramble on a bit and do some thinking out loud to get my thoughts in order.

I had posted earlier in the day my order for those I felt were most scummy to least scummy. The top three were Sensfan, Sirdanilot, and Hitogoroshi. Going on the assumption that two out of the three of them are scum, these are the possible parings:

Sensfan with Hito
Sirdan with Hito
Sensfan with Sirdan

I found it very interesting that a few days back both Adel and Sirdanilot were both brought to L-1 at the same time but not taken over. Even though Hitogoroshi didn’t vote, it does tell us something.

If Hitogoroshi is scum, and either Sidailot is scum or Adel is scum, he would have voted for the other one. If neither are scum, he could have jumped on either wagon, though may have been scared to throw the hammer on a townie.

So if Hitogoroshi is a scum, it’s probably not with either Adel or Sirdanilot.

So paring 2 with Sirdan and Hito is probably not likely.

Now we have Sirdanilot jumping on the new bandwagon against Sensfan. I find it unlikely that Sirdanilot would try to save himself by putting his scum buddy at L-1.

So paring 3 with Sensfan and Sirdan is less likely (I’m going to kick myself at the end of the game if they end up both being scum)

That only leaves paring one with Sensfan and Hitogoroshi. Hito has come out on several occasions for his support of Sensfan which is unusual for a townie. But if Hit and Sensfan are scum together, I would have expected Hit to have voted for either Adel or Sirdanilot when they were both at L-1. He may just have been scared to throw the hammer though on someone he knew would turn up townie.

It could be that Sirdanilot is scum with someone other then Hito or Sensfan. It would make the simultaneous L-1 without a lynch make sense if Adel and Sirdanilot are scum together and would explain this new bandwagon on Sensfan. Though it makes logical sense, I just can’t see the two of them being allied together because the reason they both were at L-1 was their adamant cases against each other.

To summarize my thoughts, it’s either Sensfan and Hitogoroshi or Sirdanilot with someone else. I have really been bothered by Hitogoroshi’s stalwart defense of Sensfan for a while now, so I am leaning in that direction.

But before I throw the hammer on Sensfan, I would like to hear from Hitogoroshi his apparent reasoning on why Sensfan is deserving of his constant support.

Oh, and just so they don’t try and escape by a quick lynch.

Unvote

[OverCaffeinated]

Sorry, I didn't get a chance to get on the puter this weekend.

I need a little bit of time to think about Sensfan being a townie and what that means as far as my previous assumptions go. I'll post my analysis later today around lunch time.

[OverCaffeinated]

At this point I’m at a total loss. I was felt pretty confident that Sensfan was scum. Now that he’s flipped townie, I am doubting my other convictions. I really don’t have a good feeling for who is scum and who isn’t.

I had pretty much convinced myself that Coovuus must be a townie based on his third vote on Afatchick, but I’m not sure anymore. It could have been a misleading vote that didn’t get removed before it was obvious afatchick was going to get lynched. Maybe it was some kind of scum gambit? And with his vocal position against sirdanilot, he seems to me that he would have been a better nightkill choice instead of iamausername.

But what I do have is a decent idea of who is not associated with whom.

Of the four people left other then myself (Corvuus, Adel, Hitorogoshi, and Sirdanilot) we have six possible combinations.

1. Corvuus and Adel
2. Corvuus and Hitorogoshi
3. Corvuus and Sirdanilot
4. Adel and Hitorogoshi
5. Adel and Sirdanilot
6. Hitorogoshi and Sirdanilot

I would think that due to the constant barbed rhetoric between Sirdanilot and Corvuus that the two of them wouldn’t be scum together. Hitorogoshi seems to also be anti Corvuus. Adel seems to be an equal opportunity offender, but I see less rhetoric against Corvuus from him then against Sirdanilot or Hitorogoshi.

So to me the pairings look like it’s either Hitorogoshi and Sirdanilot or Corvuus and Adel. I am split between the two and not convinced yet of which pair is the scum pair.

I should have lots of free time tonight and I’m planning on reading this game from the beginning now that I only have 4 players’ posts to scrutinize. I hope this will give me a better feeling of who is scum and who is not.

[OverCaffeinated]

I got town tells from SirD, SF, and Iamusername. I have said this multiple times. SF = townie. Iamusername = townie. And now, my trust in SirD is enough to make me scum?

In my limited experience in playing mafia, it is rare that a townie feels strongly enough to say for sure that xyz is a townie and to defend them. You've done it with both SF and Iamusername by your own admission. And conveniently both have flipped townie. Usually townies are not confident enough due to lack of knowledge to take a strong stand with someone, and when they do take a stand, it’s usually saying that xyz seems scummy, not that they = townie.

I really don’t like the fact that what you’re trying to say is that you have a super keen sense of townie and scum detection, and that you just knew these two people were townies based upon that. I think it is much more likely that you are scum and KNEW that SensFan and Iamusername were townies.

[OverCaffeinated]

I got laid off from my job early last week and lost all my web links. Plus i spend way less time in front of a computer then usual.

I haven't gone back yet and reread the game thread like I say I would. I appologize to all of you for this delay.

I won't be able to get to it today, but I promise to in the near future.