Mini 644 - Meerkat Manor Mafia (Game Over!)

[jonathantan86]

/confirm

[jonathantan86]

I do not understand how this part of your post applies in the context of this situation. First off, unless you have a bunch of mindless players, the random voting stage isn't going to get anybody killed, which is why I panicked at the third random vote on me (I count myself because a vote is a vote). Second, my self-vote wasn't serious and I had the intent to remove it eventually, as in the long run it's not of any help. Third (and this is actually an extension of "second", but whatever), I don't remember making a post in this game where I really meant to get myself killed if people didn't get off my wagon.

If the random voting stage isn't going to get anyone killed, why do you panic at the third vote? Especially since we need 7 votes to lynch. You could just remove your self-vote andthe count would go down to two.

Besides I don't think that we would lynch someone without discussion. Town wouldn't put the vote count so close to 7, and scum (supposing SC is town) wouldn't want to do that either because it may make them look scummy.

FOS: StrangerCoug

Having said that, I think some mafia are on the wagon. Not because they want to see SC lynched, but because it may make them look good if SC dies and turns out to be part of the mafia.

[jonathantan86]

Discussion is currently revolving around:

- StrangerCoug's random vote on himself (which is the second vote for him)
- MafiaMann's third vote on SC (second if you don't count SC's own vote) which some people think is opportunistic to start a wagon
- some people think SC's random vote is scummy, some think it's a null-tell
- SC complains when more votes pile on him, so does ClockworkRuse (Clock says it's because the wagon is too quick and scum-driven, and this wagon draws discussion away from other things)

Is this all?

[jonathantan86]

@jonathan- Instead of pointing out topics of conversation, you should try to look for posts that you personally find odd and try to post information of your own. Just answer this for now, who do you think looks scummy at this stage in the game?

Fair enough.

Personally I don't understand why everyone is jumping on Mafiamann for voting for SC. AFAIK, during random voting people sometimes give nonsensical reasons. So Mafiamann saying that he can't spell "clock" is not a scum-tell to me. I also don't think that Mafiamann was opportunistic in starting a wagon--if he added a vote, it would only be the second (not counting SC's vote). If we go by Means, Motive, and Opportunity, he did not have the opportunity.

This would mean that I suspect all the people who say that MM is scum because of these things. (But this is only if I am right that the SC vote is not a scum-tell.)

A separate issue is Mafiamann's non-vote in the RV stage, which Rhinox says it's a scum-tell and with IMHO good reasons (he posted this in post 115). So voting for him based on this is acceptable, but not for the SC vote. (And yes, I know I did not vote during the RV stage.)

I'm also surprised that SC and Clock seem to make quite a big deal about the wagon on SC. Clock says that the quick wagon is bad because it would draw discussion to the wagon-ed (post 78,83). I concede that this has happened, but I think it's mostly SC making the noise in accusing the people who voted for him. I don't know if this completely clears Clock of this though, since I don't think there was any danger of lynching SC (or even pushing SC to, say, L-2) so I don't think there was a wagon at all.

For SC, I don't see any benefit to the town if SC keeps on attacking the people who voted for him instead of just conceding that his self-vote was a joke. Firstly, it is a possible scum-tell, and chances are the people who vote for him are not opportunistic (I don't see how a self-vote creates an opportunity) but are interested in putting pressure on him to spur conversation (which means that the vote on SC is a null-tell, except for the possible case that a fellow scum might pseudo-bus him---but in this case we would have to assume that SC is scum). All this impairs the town, so I think SC's actions are anti-town.

[jonathantan86]

Um the reason I asked for the topics of conversation is because all my ideas were based on that and I did not want to miss anything out. So here you go. Well, I noticed that Ecto changed his vote from SC to Mafiamann (post 118) and then to Clock for this reason:

That's not from your role PM, so no that doesn't help. And at this point a counter-claim could be very bad in my opinion. Is there any flavor in your PM besides what you've posted?

I don't see how a counter-claim could be bad...in fact, the moderator has already said that all mafia have safe claims, so there is no possibility that someone else would speak up. And I agree with Ectomancer that asking for flavour is very much like power role hunting.

I'll put a tentative vote on Clock.

Vote: Clockworkruse

[jonathantan86]

Thanks for all the unvotings.

Unvote

(My vote was on clock but now he's dead)

Let's count the scum tells:
1: not voting
2: opportunistic voting (jumping on SC and calling it random IS opportunistic)
3: appeasement (voting to make muffin happy
4: appeasement again (unvoting immediately after being questioned about voting SC)
5: illogical defense (calling the vote on SC random)
6: illogical defense again (saying he didn't want to start a wagon, when he was actually jumping on a wagon, not starting one)
7: illogical defense again (couldn't spell clock)

Just for the sake of clarification, I don't count 2 as a scumtell since I don't think he is "jumping" on SC. I posted that I don't consider illogical defence during RV a scumtell as well, but you may have a point that 5,6,7 are scumtells since he posted them *outside* the RV stage.

I don't think appeasement is a scumtell though...he might just have an important power role so he might not want to get involved in controversy. Having said that, he has just claimed that he is townie, so it *is* possible that 3,4 points towards him being scum.

There are good reasons to consider 1 a scumtell, yes.

If you consider all of that in context, thats an awfully big hole that MM dug himself. It seems quite obviou to me why everyone is jumping on MM. What I want to know is why are you defending MM and then turning around and saying you're suspisious of everyone on the MM wagon? How do you think this will make you look if MM IS scum?

I'm defending MM because I don't want a mislynch. Yes, I know what I would look like if MM is scum, but that doesn't mean that we should preserve our reputations at all costs.

Mafiamann looks very scummy indeed. Still, his meta is holding me back from the wagon for now, plus the fact I am in no hurry to end this day.

Um what is "his meta"?

[jonathantan86]

Oops...sorry that I attributed the quote to the wrong person.

That reminds me... you concede that all but 1 of my points are valid scum tells, but you still defended MM. There are more appropriate ways to avoid a "mislynch" or in this case a premature lynch other than defending that person. For example, holding back your vote and continuing today's conversation until a point where it becomes appropriate to hammer. I don't think you can say you're trying to avoid a mislynch if you're both defending someone and conceding that he's scummy. Thats kinda contradictory.

At the time when I posted that I don't understand why so many people thought that MafiaMann was scum, I did not acknowledge 3-7 as scum-tells. I'm not sure now though, especially after MM has claimed townie (although he might still be a powerrole claiming townie to hide his identity, but that's not too probable). If 3-7 are scumtells, then yes MM is highly probably scum, but if not, then of your list of 7 there's only 1 valid scumtell (to me).

[jonathantan86]

I looked through Clockwork's posts and could not see anything that might point to other anti-town forces, but Cass did post something about this in post 251.

The flavour text says predators (with an s), so I'm assuming that there is more than one predator. So I do think it's worthwhile to look for connections between Clockwork and someone else. I think they are allied to each other (or at least know who the other person is) because two independent SKs able to kill one a day is too overpowered against town (3 potential deaths a day in a 12-person game), and an SK only able to kill every other day (for example) would be too weak.

[jonathantan86]

But the part i hate most is the final paragrapgh. You said you wanted to see whether clock was right. We are here to lynch scum, not to see whther he was voting for scum. Thats why I think your looking for a desperate reason to vote him and thats why I think your scum.
vote ecto

Hmm...I don't think that is a good enough case against ecto to justify a vote.

coug can you further explain this more as it seems your just trying to come up with a reason to vote him. It looks oppotunistic as cass was doing and you targetted him so it looks totally hipocrtical. Not one post you have made today has looked good so

unvote
vote coug

Hmm...I thought a few people have already explained the bogre case? It is possibly opportunistic, but I think there are good reasons for voting for bogre.

[jonathantan86]

Ok you came back and did a quick post about Muffins quote, but what else? Do you have an opinion on anyone else aside from saying there are good reasons for voting Bogre?

My opinion on Muffin is hopefully conveyed through my last post...I lean towards him being scum, and it seems that other people agree. Some people FoS Muffin; if it's OK I would like to FoS a Muffin-Bogre scum pairing (unless there's three or more Commandos, which I highly doubt).

No real read on wolframnhart, except that pushing for looking for connections seem pro-town to me. Wolf, what are the results of your findings so far?

Cass seems generally pro-town except (maybe) for the part where she says looking for connections are pointless. I think that there is a connection (mentioned in my game setup speculation post) and Cass might be avoiding being linked to Clock. Although I don't think this is highly possible...I don't recall any connection between Cass and clock, and she's saying that to avoid derailing the conversation.

I agree with the cases against SC and bogre. (And I'm not saying this because I'm too lazy to think for myself...I did speak up against the MM case.)

I'll post my opinions about the rest later.

[jonathantan86]

@ jonathen and Rhinox- What makes you think that me and bogre are scumpartners?

There's a possibility bogre is scum, and you're asking for clarification on the bogre case even though somebody has already posted about that a few posts up.

About ckd: In the beginning he said that he would vote SC if clock "flips scum", but changed his mind after clock died. (If he and SC form a scum-pair, he might have confidently said that because he "knew" that clock would turn out innocent.) Then he voted SC again, but changed his mind again because of muffinhead's "to be all honest". This might be just to distract his shift of vote.

Rhinox and Ectomancer do not strike me either way.

[jonathantan86]

Clock didnt flip mafia which is what I meant and was obvious. I didnt vote him again, because I didnt see a connection. I have stated twice that I feel that Coug is scummy today for his comments today. What I find interesting is that you are commenting on possible links but not really commenting on any of the cases or scummy actions in the present. Your thoughts on Bog, Muffin, or Coug?

why are you not voting for anyone? If you think that Coug and I might be a scum pair, why are you not voting for us?....I also note that you didnt vote anyone yesterday..please explain

Ah...okay. I still think that there's the possibility that the predators know each other (see my earlier post), so I am evaluating what people say based on that. I have commented on possible links, and I have also commented on Bogre, Muffin and Coug in an earlier post (well, I did not say much about Bogre and Coug except that I agree with the cases on them).

I didn't vote for anyone because I don't see any clear choices of suspects (I have opinions but I don't think any of them are conclusive). However, I see now that Bogre only has two votes so I will:

Vote: Bogre

This is just for pressure, not planning to lynch just yet. Hopefully he will come back and post.

I did not vote anyone yesterday for the same reasons, and also because everyone seemed to be on MM's case which I disagreed with.

[jonathantan86]

I wanted to comment on your belief that predators know each other. Earlier I went through this line of reasoning. If they know each other, then we likely have 2 scum groups of 2. After thinking on it, I believe that a 2 scum 1 SK in a 12 player game is more likely. 4 scum, even in 2 groups, is a bit much without stacking town with roles other than vanilla. Given that the 2 scenarios lead to different lines of investigation, I submit that we stick primarily to the most likely (2 scum, 1 SK) until we either uncover another predator by scum hunting, or we eliminate the Commandoes.

My basis for thinking there is more than one SK is the flavour text saying that there are predators (with an s) and everything else is just conjecture from that.

jon, I thought you were pushing that Coug and I were a scum pair, why the Bog vote?

I'm just considering that possibility. I think the case on bogre is better than the case on you.

[jonathantan86]

In reference to Muffin..I didn’t like his early attempt to dominant this game with his “experience”, I don’t like his light participation on yesterday’s lynch, I didn’t like his vote of coug, and now his “honesty” comment. Now these things individually may not mean much (except the “honesty” comment)..but together are setting off alarms.

and my case on muffin?..I know you stated you have addressed muffin before..but I would like to hear it again.

I'm assuming the first quote is your case. I don't think he was trying to dominate with experience and didn't notice anything wrong with his participation in yesterday's lynch or his vote of coug. So I also think that they don't mean much. I think the "to be all honest" statement was also blown out of proportion.

I do, however think that he voted for Ecto spuriously and his "ignorance" of the case on Bogre is a scum-tell.

To paraphrase: Im placing my vote, but I'm not actually committing myself so I'll be clear if he turns up town. Also, I didnt commit my vote yesterday, and oh yes, I didnt agree with the case on that townie yesterday.

vote jonathantan86

He is 'helping' along a bandwagon, yet backpedaling in the middle of doing it. I dont like it.

Yes I'm not committing myself---my reasons for putting this vote is similar to those who have put the vote on me in Day 1. The second statement is true, but I don't see what's wrong with that. Also, I'm not helping a bandwagon---the bandwagon is on muffinhead, not bogre.

Hopefully this answers Rhinox's questions as well.

[jonathantan86]

Unvote

*jonathantan86 needs to explain why he only posts every two-to-five days. I really don't like it, considering he misses so much. Plus--

Besides I don't think that we would lynch someone without discussion. Town wouldn't put the vote count so close to 7, and scum (supposing SC is town) wouldn't want to do that either because it may make them look scummy.

FOS: StrangerCoug

Having said that, I think some mafia are on the wagon. Not because they want to see SC lynched, but because it may make them look good if SC dies and turns out to be part of the mafia.

This in particular bothers me. You're

banking that StrangerCoug is scum in order to look for other scum bussing him

in this post.

I gave my reasons for thinking that SC might be scum (basically hitting at those who had been voting for him, even though there's no threat), and then extrapolating from there what might be the case.

I don't post that regularly because I'm quite busy at the moment, but I will try to do so now.

Yes I'm not committing myself---my reasons for putting this vote is similar to those who have put the vote on me in Day 1. The second statement is true, but I don't see what's wrong with that. Also, I'm not helping a bandwagon---the bandwagon is on muffinhead, not bogre.

I'm not sure you realize what you're saying. By not committing to a vote and position on who you want lynched, you're never taking a stand, but willing to do whatever won't get you in trouble. Being able to vote people and cast suspicion on them without being held responsible is the kind of ability scum players dream of. And it seems to me that there's a double-bandwagon going on - one dominant one on muffinhead, and one on Bogre/me, the alleged scumpartner.
And rest assured, at the moment Bogre needs no more pressure votes.

Make a choice. Who do you think is most worthy of a lynch right now? Vote them. If you decide someone else is more worthy of a lynch, tell why.

I think muffinhead is, but I'll wait for him to claim.

You (vi/bogre) come second, but that's only because of bogre's previous actions (and to a lesser extent muffinhead defending him). I was hoping he could defend his statements, but that's kind of impossible now.

[jonathantan86]

I think muffinhead is, but I'll wait for him to claim.

Still waiting.

[jonathantan86]

FOS: StrangerCoug

Having said that, I think some mafia are on the wagon. Not because they want to see SC lynched, but because it may make them look good if SC dies and turns out to be part of the mafia.

Red flag: You're effectively assuming StrangerCoug is scum (for reasons you've already mentioned) and saying there are already other scum on the wagon to bus him. Certainly not the conventional argument.
Red flag: Yet you only FoS StrangerCoug... is this perhaps to ensure you're not on the wagon? Or are you hinting that you have a scumbuddy on the wagon?
I don't know what to say about this other than that it feels very wrong.
(BTW, the wagon at this point is MafiaMann, Cass, Ectomancer, and Rhinox.)

I FoS because I wasn't quite sure. About hinting that I have a scumbuddy on the wagon, if that were true (and if I were scum) I wouldn't have wanted to draw attention to that; I could have just put suspicion on SC.

About asking what discussion is currently revolving around, I did post what I thought after that.

I think muffinhead is

[most worthy of a vote]

, but I'll wait for him to claim.

I should have asked earlier: Why do you think that?

Reasons: a spurious vote on Ectomancer and his "ignorance" of the case on bogre, and now his lurking (well, he has just come back to post).

[jonathantan86]

Logically, it follows that you're already assuming SC is scum, because any of his scum partners who may be bussing him would KNOW already that SC is scum. But you just claimed you weren't sure about SC, hence the FoS only. If you weren't sure about SC, your logic that some mafia are on the wagon falls apart. What I'm seeing, and maybe this is what Vi was trying to say, is that possibly you know everyone on the SC wagon was townie (which makes sense if you're scum), but you wanted us to think someone on the wagon was scum so we would try to get one or more of them lynched. Or possibly, you're another sk predator, and you don't care who is town or mafia as long as someone other than you is getting pressured/lynched. Basically, this post of yours was a discreet way of FoSing 5 people at one time, without having to expicitly state it. The 4 people voting for SC, and SC himself.

Oh...my opinions on the wagonners only apply if SC was killed and turned out scum. I thought that was clear. I don't think we can act on the wagonners unless we have evidence on SC's allegiance.

About discreetly FoSing 5 people, my FoS on the other four only apply if SC turns out to be scum. If he does, then my earlier statements do say that they should be investigated, yes. I didn't discreetly FoS SC (I explicitly said that), and I did say that the rest might be scum (which I think is equivalent to saying FoS), so I don't see what's so discreet.

About muffinhead's claim, yes I don't believe it but was hoping to give him a bit more "rope" and see what he says if he doesn't know people are suspicious. But since Rhinox has already posted, yes I don't believe his claim. He mentions "roving male" and seems to say that this flavour represents cop powers, but another supposedly roving male (Zaphod) was proven to have no special powers. I'm willing to hammer if the others think it's a good idea. (And I hope this sentence is not considered wishy-washy...me hammering also means that I believe in the hammer.)

[jonathantan86]

Yosarian was indeed troubled, but he always did what he thought best for town. I would consider him 'paranpoid', even when he turned out wrong.

I've argued before that the claimed cop should be lynched to save grief later.
I was scum that game.
I dont like the Yosarian/Cop pairing.

So do you think muffinhead a.k.a. Yossarian is a cop? A paranoid cop is one that always receives guilty results right? So muffinhead is not a paranoid cop.

Do you still argue that this claimed cop (muffinhead) should be lynched?

What do you mean by not liking the Yossarian/Cop pairing?

[jonathantan86]

But, whats the worst thing that could happen if we leave him alive? he gives us another innocent tomorrow, we policy lynch, and then we don't have 2 confrimed innocents. We lynch him today and he's scum, we don't have 1 confrimed innocent. He manages to get an investigation and finds scum, we get to kill a scum AND keep our cop a while longer.

One problem I see is we might mistakenly lynch a townie, then we would be two townies down (assuming the scum gets their kill and nothing out of the ordinary happens). Even if we vote No-Lynch, we would give scum one free kill.

Muffin, at this point, i want a PbP breakdown...a sentence or two will do..but I want your opinion on everyone...quit lurking, or I will return my vote.

Me too.

[jonathantan86]

Yes I'm not committing myself---my reasons for putting this vote is similar to those who have put the vote on me in Day 1. The second statement is true, but I don't see what's wrong with that. Also, I'm not helping a bandwagon---the bandwagon is on muffinhead, not bogre.

Ok so here Jon admits not commiting himself but also admits that he is not "helping a bandwagon" then says the bandwagon is on Muffinhead, not Bogre. So he is fine with voting the bandwagon against Bogre, but not muffinhead? That pinged my scumdar when I re read his posts.

I still think that the votes on bogre at that time do not constitute a bandwagon.

Now here on the two Vi vs Jon posts we can see that Jon was becoming very suspicious in Vi's eyes, and was being called on it. Then Vi ends up dead. This may not seem like much, but when scum A gets lynched, and playerB who won't go near his bandwagon is being looked at hard by playerC, and then C ends up dead at night just seems too much like B getting rid of C to quiet C down. That was what I was trying to say earlier Rhinox, bu when your fiance is nagging your ear as you try to type you tend to hurry LoL. Anyways back on topic..

Vi's role could have been a power protective role, I don't know I didn't make this game. I would have hoped hat if it was a protective role something like "human shield" or "bus driver" would have been in quotes. babysitter just doesn't scream protective to me, probably was just flavor I don't know the show so i don't know if thats what Vi's char was or not. If she was protecting someone and ended up dead from it then that blows the second portion of my case against Jon out the window, but I still think the first part of my case holds true.

Firstly, as you said, if vi's role was a bodyguard-like role, this part is not a case. If I remember correctly, vi was suspicious of other people too, not just me. So why point fingers at me straight away? Even if vi was suspicious of me the most, someone might have tried to frame me.

[jonathantan86]

I'm almost leaning towards leaving him alive one more night to see if he can give us one more investigation "result" tomorrow, and then policy lynching for the information we get from the two results (presumedly, 2 confirmed townies). And, if he can investigate scum tonight, that might just save his life.

Rhinox here thinks that the idea of leaving muffinhead alive for one more night has some merit.

It might be that ectomancer was trying to keep muffinhead around for a bit more to try to get more information from him, without trying to be too "noticeable". And so he's suspicious of ckd because he "cut it short" before muffinhead could say any more.

[jonathantan86]

Ectomancer said he had this strategy where a claimed cop shouldn't be lynched until LYLO or he turns in a guilty result, but this works only if there is only one scum left. It might have been a genuine mistake on his part. The lack of questions from him does not mean that he is not pursuing a line of investigation, I think, since there already were other people pressing muffinhead.

So I do not really think he is scum, at least not yet. However, I also think he should claim.

Cass hasn't been posting much, but I guess I could say the same for myself.

I think StrangerCoug deserves more scrutiny however, for his Day 1 actions at the very least.

[jonathantan86]

Rishi apparently had a problem with my quoting the 'wall of text' and when I read that I was being asked not to spam, I overreacted. I'll be staying on long enough for you to lynch me and spare Rishi finding a replacement. My apologies to the mod for the drama.

Well...if you expect to be lynched anyway, why don't you claim?

[jonathantan86]

I'm going to put all my cards on the table. I am Mitch the Lookout, a cop. I'll post all the information here, for fear of a day kill. I did not dare hint at my role for the same reason.

Ectomancer (night 1) and Cass (night 2) are both innocent. The flavour text does not give me reason to doubt my sanity, and I don't think a game with this type of flavour will have cops other than the ordinary sane ones.

That leaves four people:
Rhinox
StrangerCoug
wolframnhart
curiouskarmadog

I was waiting for more conversation to tell us which one or two of the four are scum, and I think I have a good idea now. I can explain the reasons why I investigated Ectomancer and Cass if you want.

[jonathantan86]

As Ectomancer said, we are almost assured of a win already. I see no reason to doubt that Rhinox is town, especially after he defended Ectomancer when the pressure was on him. That leaves three suspects:

1. ckd
2. strangercoug
3. wolframnhart

Assuming rhinox is town, this means we can believe his defence of ckd (post 508). I agree with that, leaving us two suspects.

With the four people you say we have left that you have not yet investigated I can't see rhinox as a scum or SK, he seems far too townie to me. Strangercoug I am not sure on now. I defended his posting before, but that was possibly a mistake on my part with this new information. Curiouskarmadog has sniffed out scum in this game and seems townie to me, more so then strangercoug at least. For myself, i am Maybelline, a vanilla townie. Right now I am good with just FoS StrangerCoug until others chime in.

I agree. Strangercoug and wolframnhart are my top suspects right now.

[jonathantan86]

I'm up in the air with this line of thinking... There are a number of reasons to explain jonathan's actions. For 1, if he really is a cop, I think he's played it perfectly. His lurking prevented him from being a scum target - and as such, coming out and outright defending ecto would have been a dead giveaway imo. Same for not counterclaiming muffin - muffin's claim wasn't believable on its own, and muffin was still going to be lynched. Why would jonathan out himself when he didn't need to?

However, its the timing of jonathan's claim that slightly worries me. Basically, after the pressure was starting to come off ecto, jonathan made his claim before the pressure really got onto him. If I can believe that jonathan would have played cop so perfectly, I am also forced to believe that jonathan should have forseen that if ecto wasn't lynched, he was going to be pressured (possibly into claiming). That means, either jonathan was ok with letting ecto get lynched to continue to hide his role, or he should have claimed much sooner to spare ecto and himself (knowing he would be the next on the grill).

Rhinox's first paragraph is correct.

About his second, I did not expect Ectomancer to be lynched at all (at least not until his claim). I am definitely not OK with letting ecto getting lynched. I was quite surprised when Ecto posted in such a way that the pressure on him died down. After Ecto posted, I already have all the information I need (I have two innocents but I need to confirm my sanity and the two top suspects for scum/SK). So I claimed cop. The pressure on Ecto dying was a coincidence, and I was unafraid of pressure on me because I was going to claim anyway.

I don't think allowing pressure on a confirmed townie (Ecto) is bad...at least, I got information on who's potentially scum that way. Ecto was in no danger of a lynch, as far as I know.

I asked Ectomancer to claim for two reasons: To confirm my sanity and to still be "in the game". Somehow my two top suspects are the ones that called me out for that. (And called me out for not counter-claiming as well, when as Rhinox said the reasons for not counter-claiming are quite obvious.) I don't think it's a coincidence, and I think it's very possible that both of them are making a last-ditch effort to save themselves.

By the way, my role distinguishes between pro-town (loyal to Whiskers) and not, not between Commando and non-Commando. I just cannot distinguish between Commando and predator, if I get a guilty result. This means that both Ectomancer and Cass are loyal to Whiskers.

Mod: Vote count, please?

[jonathantan86]

Oh sorry. Glancing through the thread again I see that the only two votes are for StrangerCoug, placed by ckd and Ectomancer.

Vote: StrangerCoug

[jonathantan86]

I also think that there is a slightly higher possibility that wolf is anti-town compared to SC being anti-town, but I'm happy with a vote either way since the recent comments by both seem to be for trying to bring me down. That leads me to think that both are scum.

I investigated ecto in day 1 for posts like these:

StrangerCoug deserves votes piled on him for that self-vote. It's not helpful and this pressure might make him think twice before doing it again. He's not going to get quicklynched by town, and if scum piles on, Huzzah! We got one or two for tomorrow...
I still say we string him up. Somebody's gotta die today, we might as well do the volunteer

He voted for quite a few people, switching from SC to Mafiamann to Clock.

You can say it, but what you are really doing is a balancing act. Hard to say whether you are looking at a cautious townie, or a non-committal scum though.

He was defending me here in a way (I am the cautious townie/non-committal scum). I was suspicious of this defence, since we start in the day (so no investigative roles can take place, and besides I was already a/the cop) and he might have wanted to set up a future lynch if he ever dies and got revealed as scum.

For cass in day 2:

In the beginning she said that investigating the Clock death was pointless. I found this mildly suspicious.

Right after muffin's claim:

I propose we let him live for now. That will at least improve the amount of information we gain from next night.

Muffin, why did you check me instead of anyone else?

There were more obvious cases to investigate, so I don't know why she would let a weak-claim live. And later she still seemed to be reluctant to lynch muffin.

About the post by muffin that rhinox quoted, I'm not sure. It's strange to put me in his town list, and it's strange that cass was left out (as she said).

[jonathantan86]

I think that there is either 1 commando + 1 SK/day-mafia (whatever you call a scum pair who can kill during the day) left or 2 commandos. I also think that Wolf is commando, and SC is the SK/day-mafia/commando. Both of them (and only them) have tried to put suspicion on me for weak reasons, and SC was the first to ask me to post my reasons. If they were town, I would (trying to put myself in their shoes) immediately suspect the other (SC->Wolf and vice versa) and think very hard about the possibility that Ecto or Cass were actually anti-town (if they believed that there were two anti-town people left), leading them to conclude that one of them was either an SK or a godfather. (At that time I still did not clarify that I can sniff out predators as well.)

My answer to Rhinox's question would be A or B, and right now I think B is the most probable (flavour text - plural of predators aside). Unlike rhinox, I can believe that Wolf and SC are scum.

A mafia godfather-like role is possible, yes, but the conversation here also leads me to believe that SC and wolf are the anti-town people.

If there is a mafia roleblocker, I have not been blocked as far as I know. From what I read, the result of a block usually is silence from the mod, but I have had responses to both my investigations.

[jonathantan86]

I'm finding the logic of this a bit hard to follow. Why do you think wolframnhart and I would immediately suspect each other if we were town?

I claimed right after Rhinox defended ckd and then said ecto's post makes him reconsider. Rhinox has also generally been pro-town so far in all his posts. And his defence of ckd is believable, which means that there are only two scum candidates left (you and wolframnhart). Obviously you would say that you aren't scum, so there's only one left.

[jonathantan86]

I agree with your analysis, but you may be digging yourself a grave. For example, you're concluding that coug and wolf are both commando together since they haven't tried to attack each other. If we chose 1 of them to lynch today and they show up town, that will (imo) cause me to lose trust in your claim if I link it to your belief that BOTH of coug and wolf are commando.

Well...don't link my analysis with my claim then. My claim and results are fact (well, it's up to all of you to believe this) but my analysis is just my best opinion.

Mod: I will be away until the 24th. Is that okay?

Unvote

I don't think it's a good idea to leave my vote on anyone when I'm away.

[jonathantan86]

I have reason to believe that jon can only find commandos and not predators, so in my view that still leaves Ecto and Cass open to be an SK.

I explicitly said earlier that my role distinguishes between pro-town and anti-town (commandos and predators).

My main problem is he didn't counter Muffin when Muffin had claimed cop.

Okay he's bringing this up again. As stated earlier, Muffin was about to be lynched anyway so I thought it's better to stay hidden...since he could be proved false through means other than a counter-claim. To me he's still trying his best to discredit me because my evidence points to him possibly being scum (through the process of elimination).

Oh yeah...I don't think it's useful to match a name with the GF, since according to the front page, commandos are given safe-claims (they don't actually *have* the name).

[jonathantan86]

Bah!

[jonathantan86]

Well...I thought I was quite lucky as the cop that both my investigation targets survived to Day 3 (so my results are more useful), and both were innocent (if one or both were guilty, I don't think my claim would have been so believable). I also need to be better at detecting scum though...I seriously thought vi/bogre and SC were scum. It was quite fortunate that I didn't waste an investigation on vi on Night 2...I thought vi's scumness would be quite apparent through conversation, but as it turned out vi was a Doctor.

Also it was quite fortunate that we voted wolf instead of SC.

wolframnhart, I thought you played quite well actually. As Rhinox said, we settled on you by elimination, not by anything you did. But you might have defended better, yes...at that time, I still had a nagging feeling that rhinox and ckd were the last two scum, but you and sc "removed all doubt". I did think about possible Godfather roles when making my claim, but decided to drop that possibility after wolf and sc's behaviour in the thread...I concluded both were scum and there couldn't be any more scum (Godfather or not) for game balance reasons.

And yes, I would like to see the mafia chat where I almost got NKed on Night 2.

[jonathantan86]

Hey jon, did you think I was scum after I replaced in and posted for a while?

Actually I did. Scum can play and reason as actively as town would (I think you say the same in your post), so I did not consider your activity as a town tell, especially since you were casting suspicion on a few people. Rhinox, however, somehow "cleared" people through his posts, so it was easier to believe that he was pro-town.