SMITE Role Madness Mafia (OVER AT LAST!)

[ooba]

/confirm!

[ooba]

Wait I thought it was one page - apparently i'm mistaken.

[ooba]

Meh. Xombie's the only one who piqued my radar.

[ooba]

Spoiler: House's Role

Vengeful Kratos SK!

[ooba]

House could be town. Like Ffery said, we were concerned about Xombie but I'd like to hear Ooba's reasoning for his read.

It's vibe. We had two players talking about bitmap and then he jumps on with a 'overcompensating' post.

[ooba]

I'm against outing neighbourhoods this game. Here are some scenarios where not outing actually helps:
- Scum\third party needing to target particular pantheons for their abilities
-

Town informational roles sharing info to the neighbourhood.

A cop can share his reads with the other people. One of the others can claim. etc.

[ooba]

- Town informational roles sharing info to the neighbourhood. A cop can share his reads with the other people. One of the others can claim. etc.

and if the neighborhood contains scum?

If it does, than it's as good as the role openly claiming - so nothing lose. I'm thinking of the large benefits when it doesn't.

[ooba]

1. Angrypidgeon
2. Metal Sonic
3. Dcane
...

this doesnt divide by 3

Most probably there are 7 neighbourhoods - Chinese, Egyptian, Greek, Hindu, Mayan, Norse and Roman.
http://smite.gamepedia.com/Gods

[ooba]

Town

13. Solar Wind (F-16_Fighting_Falcon and fferyllt)
16. Imperium (Tammy and Nacho) - Times where I had my doubts and still do - town for now though.
23. Bitmap

Please put pressure on fourth. Good chance we might have scum there.

19. Ankamius

Townish

1. Angrypidgeon - I hope he's town. Like his tone. Also not sure where he's going with the house push - but not sure if scum would choose to push that avenue right now. High level scum players might - so I'm not sure.
21. House - Not strong but leaning town for claim.
17. RachMarie - Weak town - no particular reason.

Null but some thoughts

2. Metal Sonic - Did not like the entry to the thread. Then the 'let's out all neighbourhoods' was town. The leadership\posting after that was town - his list had too many town reads. [But Solar Wind had a similar list - so idk]. Can't call him town for now.
24. Xombie - I can't really place the current vote on MS. Would scum really do that?

[ooba]

This looks like vezo-town although I'm not sure if it's his scum-him trying to play to that meta. Leaning town though.

TD's entrance also felt town to me.

Vote: BRantz

[ooba]

Oh yes, Tammy's suspicion on SW makes me consolidate that town read.

[ooba]

he is mason

????!!????

[ooba]

What is the difference between town vezo and scum vezo?

Scum vezo is more calculated. Town vezo doesn't care for appearances as much. I don't see scum vezo drawing this much attention to his slot. Then again, it's easy to fake. (and I did mention this recently in a game too)

As for the skim i've done on

neighborhoods

. I do have to say

they

help me. If only by limiting the information i get, and not spinning my head around freakishly.

Plural?

[ooba]

TD's entrance also felt town to me.

What felt town about it?

Choice of target + tone seemed genuine.

Happy mastin replaced in.

[ooba]

Piping into say I'm fine with everyone posting - nothing pinged my scumdar.

I really think lynching a lurker\low-poster would yield scum D1. Brantz is my pick. And not interested in lynching TD, Vezo or Mask in that list.

[ooba]

Can't really evaluate with blah reason from ooba.

Nothing in the game apart from a couple of town reads. There's been no post that made me go 'scum'. So I'm concentrating on the lurker\low post list - my choice from it is Brantz.

I just don't feel like my presence is actively needed. Not with the current players talking about the players they're currently talking about, anyway. If anything of interest comes up, I'll engage them a little bit, but otherwise, I'm fairly content where I am right now. I have reads. I have reasons. They're decently good. And for where we are in the game right now, that is good enough for me.

This sums up my view perfectly - I just don't feel the need to post right now.

[ooba]

Okay so I reread the iso to remind myself of what I had noted as a person of interested, which will bring me back to aceofspades after this post.
Or I can do it all in one now that I'm at a computer.

Anyways first ooba.

I'm against outing neighbourhoods this game. Here are some scenarios where not outing actually helps:
- Scum\third party needing to target particular pantheons for their abilities
-

Town informational roles sharing info to the neighbourhood.

A cop can share his reads with the other people. One of the others can claim. etc.

Town

13. Solar Wind (F-16_Fighting_Falcon and fferyllt)
16. Imperium (Tammy and Nacho) - Times where I had my doubts and still do - town for now though.
23. Bitmap

Please put pressure on fourth. Good chance we might have scum there.

19. Ankamius

Townish

1. Angrypidgeon - I hope he's town. Like his tone. Also not sure where he's going with the house push - but not sure if scum would choose to push that avenue right now. High level scum players might - so I'm not sure.
21. House - Not strong but leaning town for claim.
17. RachMarie - Weak town - no particular reason.

Null but some thoughts

2. Metal Sonic - Did not like the entry to the thread. Then the 'let's out all neighbourhoods' was town. The leadership\posting after that was town - his list had too many town reads. [But Solar Wind had a similar list - so idk]. Can't call him town for now.
24. Xombie - I can't really place the current vote on MS. Would scum really do that?

I noted this post because he wanted pressure on Anka but wasn't voting him and then later without much said.

Just to clarify - when I said "Please put pressure on fourth." - I was talking to {Solar Wind, Imperium, Bitmap} to pressurise the fourth person in their neighbourhood. I have a town read on Ank.

---

Not sure I get the mantis hate.

@ace: "Yes plural." - by this you mean you have access to multiple neighbourhoods? I really didn't understand the last post.

[ooba]

I'm very confident that F-16 is town.

Vote Tiphaine

I hate to take pressure off vezok but this needs to happen. Still waiting for a response to my question.

Vote Tiphaine

I'm gonna give Ceph a chance to catch up, but I'm pretty sure he's scum.

This is interesting. 'I know I was voting X - but now I'm going to vote Y - but I haven't forgotten about X'.

Scum have a mental map of their current *reads* as it appears on thread at any time. It feels like you're trying to preempt any 'Why did you forget about mantis\vezo?' statements even before someone asks.

Also, the fact that we're opposed on some critical reads {TD, Brantz, AP} on scum\town ping my scumdar.

Unvote. Vote: FourTrouble

[ooba]

Restating the Fourtrouble case:
- Both scum and town move votes
- But I've seen scum be in this mindset 'I'm moving my vote from X to Y. Better let people know I haven't forgotten about X'. This protects them from cases later on, when people state 'Oh. You totally wagon hopped and forgot about X'. Call it a pre-emptive defence.

Now that by itself is a weakish-tell, but
- FourTrouble's done that twice. He mentions how he hates taking pressure off vezok to vote TD. He mentions Ceph\mantis again when voting TD for second time.
- His reads\cases seem to attack the townie under suspicion and not mention others. Basically, I think he's pushing those who scum would push.

---

Votecount 13: Anyone? ._.

FourTrouble (2): The Mask, Ooba, iHouse

iHouse (0): beastcharizard

Also, beast and one of {Mask, me, iHouse} have lost our vote.

---

Spoiler: @Cephrir

Town

13. Solar Wind (F-16_Fighting_Falcon and fferyllt)
16. Imperium (Tammy and Nacho) - Times where I had my doubts and still do - town for now though.
23. Bitmap

Please put pressure on fourth. Good chance we might have scum there.

19. Ankamius

Townish

1. Angrypidgeon - I hope he's town. Like his tone. Also not sure where he's going with the house push - but not sure if scum would choose to push that avenue right now. High level scum players might - so I'm not sure.
21. House - Not strong but leaning town for claim.
17. RachMarie - Weak town - no particular reason.

Null but some thoughts

2. Metal Sonic - Did not like the entry to the thread. Then the 'let's out all neighbourhoods' was town. The leadership\posting after that was town - his list had too many town reads. [But Solar Wind had a similar list - so idk]. Can't call him town for now.
24. Xombie - I can't really place the current vote on MS. Would scum really do that?

I can't tell what this post is trying to say about Ankamius.

Would like to know if, by omission, this means you have no doubt at all about Solar Wind.

The description re: Metal Sonic sounds like a townread, so it's curious that it isn't one.

I may appreciate something else in this post because reasons, but I will need to check something. Don't expect me to follow up on this and don't ask about it.

- Ankamius is strong town. The line "Please put pressure on fourth. Good chance we might have scum there." was directed towards the top three asking them put pressure on the fourth member in their neighbourhood. I didn't know it was TD then.
- I didn't omit Solar Wind. They're right at top as town
- Still have issues about Metal Sonic. I think his alignment will become obvious as the game goes along.

@iHouse

: I don't think they're distancing.

[ooba]

That was very weird to read through.

You barely here this game.

The town beast in Once Upon cared more and pushed more.

[ooba]

Whatever the case, I think if Ceph's scum it's exactly the kind of calculated manipulation I observed in Nati's game.

FT, Could you link to this game please?

---

I don't think that aceofspades is claiming that he's in multiple neighborhoods. I thought he was just making a general statement that he liked neighborhoods?

I wouldn't think it was absolutely unheard of in this game if he were. I can think of a couple of gods who are worshipped in more than one pantheon.

Since this is based on the MOBA, I'd say each god is in a single pantheon.

[ooba]

What's the MOBA?

1. Angrypidgeon
2. Metal Sonic
3. Dcane
...

this doesnt divide by 3

Most probably there are 7 neighbourhoods - Chinese, Egyptian, Greek, Hindu, Mayan, Norse and Roman.
http://smite.gamepedia.com/Gods

Smite the game
http://smite.gamepedia.com/Smite_Wiki

[ooba]

@Aeronaut

- There's barely any scum advantage for MS to do what he did. His daycop thing sounded like a joke. So he claims day cop, gets zombie lynched, zombie flips town and then he dies to a D2 lynch or N1 vig? A 1:1 trade is always almost favourable to town.
- Things change if we assume multiball and he thinks zombie is other scum\SK - but then he would have pushed MUCH harder

Its not a scum tell. It's not a town tell either.

I didn't like the fact that he made you guys claim in neighbourhood.

---

Thinking if I should compromise vote on AOS - mastin\farside\Cephrir pushing that and they can't all be scum. But intuition is leaning towards AOS town.

I thought about going back to Skybird\Brantz but Skybird's MS switch from town to scum seems organic.

Theaceofspades (7): AngryPidgeon, Farside22, TiphaineDeath, vezokpiraka, Mastin2, Xombie, RachMarie
vezokpiraka (1): Skybird
FourTrouble (3): The Mask, Ooba, iHouse
TiphaineDeath (2): FourTrouble, Cephrir
AngryPidgeon (1): theaceofspades
BRantz (1): PeregrineV
iHouse (0): beastcharizard
MS (1): Aeronaut <-- Vote not counted

Not voting: ZZZX, Solar Wind, VysePresident, imperium, TSO, Ankamius

I have a sinking feeling this is multi ball - I'm getting far too many genuine scum hunting tells from everyone.

Reversing the mild Rach town read - most recent posts don't seem to upset the apple cart too much and seem devoid of scum hunting.

I thought about this for about an hour with ISO'ing a bit. This is where I stand:
Town: mastin, Imperium, SolarWind, TiphaineDeath, iHouse, Ankamius
Town for specific reasons (other than gut):
- vezokpiraka (meta)
- farside (for Rach suspicion and posting)
- TheMask (vibe and voted FT)

Mild town for reasons:
- Xombie (vibe I had after my attack on him)
- AP (Just the various positions taken - but paranoid about this slot - since he could very easily be part of the scum group below - Pere\him probably not scum together based on above post)
- Skybird (for MS town-scum switch)
- Aeronaut (for the MS paranoia and outing MS role) -> very mild though

Can't say:
- TSO
- beastcharizard (I'll need to read his scum games to verify but I can't see him not playing as scum to this extent)
~~~~~ (Would say 'town' for above two if I had to give an opinion)
- Bitmap (Not as sure I was earlier in the day; goes back to null)
- Metal Sonic
- VysePresident (Really needs to post)

Scum group I can see: {Rach, FT, Cephrir, ZZZX or Pere}

Unvote. Vote: Rach

[ooba]

Scum group I can see: {Rach, FT, Cephrir, ZZZX or Pere}

Unvote. Vote: Rach

Switching to Rach from FT - because I can't see FT getting lynched today - way too many people town or even super-town reading him. I think Rach could be a decent counter wagon choice (farside, mastin) to aceofspades.

@vezok: I'm sorry if this is the reason why aceofspades isn't lynched today and he goes on to win the game.

[ooba]

@Cephrir:

D1, I usually work with PoV. I spot town reads and I try and sort out who I'd like to lynch from the rest.
I like your reaction to the suspicion\people going 'Cephrir's scum' - you move to 'mild town with paranoia' for now.
^Think you're barking up the wrong tree on TD though.

Scum group I can see: {Rach, FT,

Cephrir,

ZZZX or Pere}

Theaceofspades (7): AngryPidgeon, Farside22, vezokpiraka, mastin2, xombie,

PeregrineV?

,

Rachmarie?

It's unfortunate, but my main suspect still remains FT. I just don't feel good about that slot. Not a viable counter wagon today though. Also, that *nagging feeling* is telling me that ace would be a town flip.

pedit: Lemme parse F-16 reads and see if I can sheep.

[ooba]

@F-16:
Your analysis on me was spot on. I'm surprised you're able to pull that off with just a history of one game (FFX Mafia).
Regarding Cephrir, while I'm paranoid - I don't want to lynch him today. While I can't put my finger on it, *something* seems town in Cephrir's play.

Also, I skimmed ISOs of Tales of You. The recent interaction between Solar Wind and Imperium reads exactly like that. I think you guys should mutually read each other as town and start working together from there.

In other news, a FT wagon seems viable again. I should point out that FT has virtually disappeared close to deadline - townies push\care more about who's getting lynched.

Unvote. Vote: FourTrouble

[ooba]

Ooba, you are voting my strongest townread in the game: one who I'll never consider lynching. Me and FT played together offsite for years and know each other probably better than we know anyone on mafiascum. Where we played, deadline was around 48-72 hours. When playing with normal two-week deadlines on mafiascum, people who haven't played here a lot get impatient and burned out. FT flaked from the last two games we hydra'd together. I'm unsurprised that he disappeared as the game dragged on and on for three weeks now. It fits with his play and isn't scummy for him.

Fine - I will sheep you on this. I think this is common ground for both of us:

Unvote. Vote: AngryPidgeon.

[ooba]

Actually, I will spell it out for you.

TD, I need you to do me one favor. I need you to make a post that says, word for word, the following, and nothing else:

My win condition in this game is "You win when all threats have left the game, or nothing can prevent the same."

I am reasonably certain that will get me modkilled cephrir, direct quotation and all that :/.

This will not get you modelled - it's on the Opening page. Please comply.

[ooba]

The replace out without posting the notes is just bad. I can't help but feeling that the scum just want to lurk out the D1 lynch because they have powerful ultimates and don't want to die before realising value from them.

Whether Vyse falls into that category, idk.

[ooba]

Fuck it.

Vote: rach

Vyse is the only one I'd compermise on come deadline or Pere.

Lets try this.

Unvote. Vote: Rach

TD is a bad wagon - move back here farside.

[ooba]

Unvote. Vote: AP

[ooba]

UNVOTE:

Sorry guys. Both heads have serious reservations about this wagon and we're reconsidering. I just don't feel the scumvibes from AP overall at this point. Ffery feels the same way.

Even I have reservations against AP, but at some point you got to compromise\choose. Apart from a very few slots {FT, Pere, ZZZX} - most slots have done something that's given me a brief town ping at times.

The reason you're pushing heartless is bad. They've barely been in the game. Even otherwise, I'm leaning town on that slot. I thought Vyse-scum wouldn't have been as useless as he was - and if Vyse scum actually went the 'Oh - I'm going to post notes.' followed by 'Sorry. Don't have time' - that's a very dick move to his replacement.

[ooba]

Is the town-lean because of how he replaced out?

Well not entirely. He's also part of my neighbourhood and from what I gathered, he fit the mould of a 'thinking'+'courteous' player. I think he was town who really wanted to play but RL got in the way. My read on his playstyle\character is that he would have replaced out a *long* time back if he was scum since he would have considered himself a burden to his buddies.
[But nothing too solid here - just enough to lean town and say I would prefer others over him today.]

[ooba]

But I'm with you when you say AP might be a bad lynch. His BP claim + posting all seemed to have a town vibe.

Maybe going after one of the lurkers is the best strategy like you mention - but you might be barking up the wrong tree with heartless.

Others:
- I thought scum-beast would have been more active - but I don't like how he's hiding behind a role ('Oh I'm voteless - I cannot be scum'). Still would lean town.
- I'm not sure about ace's wagon stalling - is it because town correctly read him as town? Or did his buddies decide it could be avoided? I would still say town.

- Pere, ZZZX could be scum

- Aeroloft could be scum

- Skybird leaning more town than scum. Similar to 'The Mask'

[ooba]

It doesn't take a genius to figure out that AP most probably will flip town. But fuck it if I'm going to start D2 at the same place with Solar Wind dead.

It was quite obvious that the ace wagon was dying down. Where were you when we wagoned Rach? Don't come in this close to deadline and keep saying 'but he's town'. You should have been here earlier to give a viable alternative.

[ooba]

idk what to do

I thought you had it down pat. Lurk when there's a wagon on you and suddenly appear when it died down.

[ooba]

I think Anamikus was closest with his scum reads. Lurker scum and town just fights amongst itself. Reminds me of Tales of You. 'I KNEW YOU WERE SCUM'. Lol.

Pedit: It tells me that the other 10% chance of him flipping scum wasn't true.

[ooba]

ooba, was AP in your neighborhood?

Nope. If my calculations are correct, AP is in a three person neighbourhood. One person is 'The Mask' and one of {5. Theaceofspade, 10. ZZZX, 19. Ankamius}.

Re-read the game - House(Magua) is surely town. I also feel much better about FourTrouble and farside.

I'd be down with a MS lynch.

Vote: MS

Also, TD's bramble is probably his own use.

[ooba]

What do you think about Ceph fake-crumbing lie detector yesterday? I thought the simplest explanation was that AP had claimed that ability in your neighborhood. Several things fell together with that assumption. I need to think about how things look without the assumption.

I did think about it after the flip but put it down to coincidence.

It would have made more sense to suspect Ceph if AP was a Mafia flip. Since third party, I don't think they're related. [Unless it's a mechanic tying third party 'Racists' together.]

[ooba]

It was such a shiny theory. I'm a little sad.

There could be such a mechanic, but AP's flip said something about self-aligned.

I'm was theorising that there could be another Racist in the game. AP was a Norse Racist; we could have another pantheon racist. What I was trying to say was third party racists could have lie detector abilities.

Additional info - dram also verified that town is not excluded from winning if racist wins. Either way - not interested in lynching Cephrir.

[ooba]

Cephrir is town as fuck. What os wrong with you sw?

If you ever want to explain why, I'll be listening.

Well yes. I saved cephrir last night. And there are no kills today.

I don't see any scum group worth it salt killing Cephrir yesterday night - far too much suspicion.

Mastin is right about AP's lynch being more equal to a town lynch than a scum one. But it wasn't a bad lynch by any stretch - AP would have probably been mislynched D3 after killing a townie.

[ooba]

@ooba: explain what happened to at least one kill.

- TD's bramble (Although a TD scum kill is unlikely too)
- Dram's ultimate (Circle of protection)
- Any number of roles I don't know about (JK, Doc, RB etc)

---

Far side - why did you protect cephrir? ( if that wasn't farside, whoever it was I'd like to know the answer)

Reading Cephrir as not scum.

[ooba]

Why on earth did you consider the mod's sample role pm a remote possibility over docs, JKs and RBs?

I don't think that ultimate is a sample one. Probably under the control of another Egyptian is what I figure.

---

Hmm. Getting a very weird not-scum but scum feeling from MS.
- The insistence that Chinese neighbourhood is all-town
- Plus talking about SK in singular
makes me think he might be a chinese-pantheon racist. (http://smite.gamepedia.com/Zhong_Kui)?

I'm expecting one more racist + 4-5 scum team

@MS: Claim Racist and we'll let you live.

[ooba]

Why on earth did you consider the mod's sample role pm a remote possibility over docs, JKs and RBs?

I don't think that ultimate is a sample one. Probably under the control of another Egyptian is what I figure.

---

Hmm. Getting a very weird not-scum but scum feeling from MS.
- The insistence that Chinese neighbourhood is all-town
- Plus talking about SK in singular
makes me think he might be a chinese-pantheon racist. (http://smite.gamepedia.com/Zhong_Kui)?

I'm expecting one more racist + 4-5 scum team

@MS: Claim Racist and we'll let you live.

No. Racism is bad. Ironically racist got lynched day 1

Where's the energy\drive you had in Capcom? You were a town leader there - here you're barely even trying.

---

@Skybird: I've listed out possibilities in my post above. I don't think we should discuss this further. But I disagree with Vezok's deduction that 'Vezok saved Cephrir in some way'+'No kill N1' implies 'Cephrir was targeted for kill and hence town'.

[ooba]

ooba, was AP in your neighborhood?

Nope. If my calculations are correct, AP is in a three person neighbourhood. One person is 'The Mask' and one of {5. Theaceofspade,

10. ZZZX,

19. Ankamius}.

If you're right on this,

1) Fixed, it's not Z

2) If it's Mask/Ace/Ank

Then I think we should vote between here today. Was thinking that if AP had to keep them alive, then for balance reasons there is most likely a scum in there.

---

@MS: "Where is YOUR drive coming from? I was ISOing you to compare you to capcom myself, you're unusually active here but was almost non existent in capcom"

The Mask, since you're being all nice today, would you mind confirming if this is correct/who's in your neighborhood?

I did think of this - but dram specifically said not to try to outguess him. If you're so sure Z isn't there - I might have screwed up in placing (TSO\Mastin). Ank already mentioned that he isn't Norse.

---

@MS: "Where is YOUR drive coming from? I was ISOing you to compare you to capcom myself, you're unusually active here but was almost non existent in cap com"
Capcom was horribly fast. While this game had a fairly fast start, it was pretty slow going until it picked up close to deadline. Plus this is a god-game, and I've always put more energy into those sort of games since DeathNote's mini.

It's not just the kidnap and you being away. It's the sheer difference in gameplay while you've been here.

[ooba]

Crap, didn't realize that wasn't allowed

Plz don't kill me dram

Lol. He didn't mean 'You can't discuss setup and guess scum\roles based on that' - just he might have specifically designed the setup to run counter to expectations.

---

Also why the fuck wouldn't you think that a very strong player with a role he claimed was good isn't a possible night kill target? Do you kill lurkers as scum?

I, as scum, wouldn't have killed Cephrir because there was substantial suspicion on him. I personally expected scum to go after whoever's town in {farside, Magua, FT}. [Probably leaving the universal town reads of SW, Imp alone fearing protects]

[ooba]

BTW Bitmap is most probably Odin for anyone that didn't figure it out.

You're in the wrong pantheon here.

[ooba]

Such a wonderful day!

Mastic you are beautiful! I said the same thing about AP's lynch in my neighborhood.

On that note, I fear that perhaps another racist will target my pantheon and do not wish to disclose who else is in the PT. Could it be you, Magua??? Say it isn't so!

AP had 1 post saying he feels farside may be town (dated January 25th).

Oh, if only we could get scum to walk away. It pains me to do this but I have no other way of winning! I love you Sonic!

Vote: Metal Sonic

Claim your flavor name, role, pantheon and all abilities by your next post. Or die.

I will admit to a more than passing interest in this.

Why?

---

Also, not interested in MS right now. Still weird - but not getting 'scum for sure' vibes.

Unvote. Vote: aceofspades

[ooba]

- The insistence that Chinese neighbourhood is all-town
- Plus talking about SK in singular
makes me think he might be a chinese-pantheon racist.

Mastin fits under this category as well, don't you think for calling his neighborhood a Masonry?

It is also possible racists knew about each other.

Hmm, can't really see a self-aligned player being that vehement with his opinion at the end of D1.

[ooba]

i'd still like to lynch mastin

VOTE: mastin

i kinda thought that was the plan after an AP evil flip? and it looks more SK-y than survivor to me. I call it scum. Because evil.

I'm also now townreading heartless. because hydras are always town.

TD is now suspicious. will read his iso

He is scum.

Mastin is town.
TD is town.

[ooba]

Vote mastin

FT, I specifically ISO'd you yesterday during the break and came up with 'most prob town' - please post more

@Imperium: Vezok is town.

[ooba]

Metal Sonic (5): Heartless, The Mask, Cephrir, PeregrineV, Skybird
theaceofspades (3): Xombie, Ooba, VezokPiraka
Mastin2 (2): theaceofspades, FourTrouble
Ankamius (1): Magua
Skybird (1): Mastin2
Magua (0.5): beastcharizard
beastcharizard (1): Imperium
Heartless (1): Farside22
Imperium (1): Solar Wind

Not Voting: Rachmarie, Ankamius, TSO, ZZZX, TheWayItEnds, TiphaineDeath, Bitmap, Metal Sonic

24 alive means 13 to lynch.

Deadline is (expired on 2015-03-02 00:00:00)
[/color][/b]

[ooba]

Btw I find this very suspicious. I have 4x more posts than ooba but he's accusing me of being "barely even here" lol??

I check the thread a lot but I tend to restrict my posts by choice. If I went the 'steam of consciousness' route - I would have a lot more posts. 'Barely even here' meaning I can't even remember your pushes - your gambits are lol and there's absolutely no conviction in your scum hunting. I wanted to read FF Mafia again - don't have the time.

---

Don't want this day to be another drag out 50 page three week affair to end in a deadline lynch. Let's discuss.

You will not get my vote for the following lynches:
21. Magua iHouse (House and Eyestott), House
8. TiphaineDeath
12. Farside22
13. Solar Wind (F-16_Fighting_Falcon and fferyllt)
14. FourTrouble
18. The Mask
22. vezokpiraka
3. Mastin2 Dcane
24. Xombie

And probably not for these three as well:
6. Beastcharizard
20. T S O
15. Cephrir Mantisdreamz, Flames682

Have had some town markers in past - unsure. Would compromise lynch:
19. Ankamius
16. Imperium (Tammy and Nacho)
25. Heartless (TellTaleHeart and Antihero) VysePresident

Rest:
17. RachMarie
23. Bitmap
4. Skybird BRantz
10. ZZZX
7. TheWayItEnds Aeronaut, -Blonde-
2. Metal Sonic
11. PeregrineV
5. Theaceofspade <-- Preferred

[ooba]

I actually agree with mastin that SK=town play style (at least for good players) - but this D1 discussion gets us nowhere.

Let's talk about D2 please.

[ooba]

Mask is also a bad choice, by the way.

I agree with this (for non role reasons) - Mask feels very town.

[ooba]

MS, if you're going to use your dayvig(?) today - use it.

My candidates of choice: aceofspades, Pere, Rach in that order.

[ooba]

This is true with the two flips and my own role, but all role power names in this game correspond to ability names in the MOBA, Smite.

Compare Fenrir's flip with MOBA equivalent and Kumbhakarna's role with his game character.

Sine Arcshot: peregrineV

This + kill going through confirms that MS is a Racist.

I'm pretty sure this happened because I was right about the evil character guess here and MS thought it would be better if he masked his day kill in the form of a more heroic\good character.

He either didn't realise the [role=ability names] thing or forgot when he posted in thread.

@Bitmap:

I wouldn't take MS into your neighbourhood. Mafia can waste their NK on him if they please.

---

I'll answer the heartless case here since it's related and the strongest point. Other points in a separate post.

a) You're right in that I correctly read MS as racist. I spotted something weird with his play - he barely cared that much on who he was pushing (nothing like the confidence\arrogance you saw in Capcom). On the other hand, he was far too useless to be Mafia. That, plus clues like calling his neighbourhood all town reaffirmed that. However, that doesn't require me to be Mafia. I have a history of making deductions like this as town.

b) Plus your case does not consider motives.

If I was Mafia, I would want MS removed from the game.

A third party killer is a liability to Mafia. [As evidenced by Pere dying].

I would have done the exact reverse as scum. Pushed his lynch through stating he's Mafia.

I would not have brought up the racist possibility.

[ooba]

This is true with the two flips and my own role, but all role power names in this game correspond to ability names in the MOBA, Smite.

Compare Fenrir's flip with MOBA equivalent and Kumbhakarna's role with his game character.

In post 3598, Metal Sonic wrote:
Sine Arcshot: peregrineV

This + kill going through confirms that MS is a Racist.

I'm pretty sure this happened because I was right about the evil character guess here and MS thought it would be better if he masked his day kill in the form of a more heroic\good character.

He either didn't realise the [role=ability names] thing or forgot when he posted in thread.

@Bitmap: I wouldn't take MS into your neighbourhood. Mafia can waste their NK on him if they please.

Please respond to this part.

[ooba]

^pedit: I wouldn't have unvoted you if I wanted you lynched. I unvoted you as soon as I realized you're racist at best. This is *way before* you day killed Pere. Your entire case of I only backed off as scum because I knew you would shoot Pere correctly would be correct if my name was 'Nostradamus'.

I'm just going to ignore MS for the rest of the game.

@Mafia:

If you want a town abiding daykiller killed, please kill him off. Thanks.

@Bitmap:

Do not take him into your portal.

---

Solar Wind’s ooba pere trajectory case:

There was never a significant wagon on Pere. I don’t do vanity votes - if you’re not voting towards a lynching, its a wasted vote. I didn’t see his lynch happening on D1.

I think you’re taking something that should be a town marker for me and letting paranoia twist it into something scummy. But feel free to read my scumgames - my play style is distinctly different and transparent as town and scum.

---

Mastin’s AP-wagon case:

I called AP ‘common ground’ because the town read was mild and I was willing to compromise. I am adept at reading lynch states in the game and we were getting no where except aceofspades. Everyone pushing their own direction only makes a bad deadline lynch more possible.

I did not do ‘nothing’ - I tried reaching out multiple times to players to try and get another lynch down on D1 - SolarWind, farside. If you had been there earlier, instead of three hours before deadline - maybe we could have done something.

And we disagree on this, but I would have a town lynch over a no-lynch on D1. It’s information I can work with, instead of starting out D2 at the same spot.

---

Tammy read switching:

Attribute the shift in read to paranoia\re-analysis. Anyway, easy counter is to see that you’re not going to get lynched today. As scum, the shift in stances really gains me nothing. Unless I was going for 'Tammy knows I have a history of Paranoia, so let's switch reads to adhere to that' - but that just pisses you off. I was scum, I would have probably worked on our Winter's night connection to work together or something.

[ooba]

OOBA - Nacho wants me to ask you how many nature/wild gods there are in MOBA?

I actually thought the best bet for 'Bramble' was 'Slyvanus' from your pantheon. (which is why I thought it was TD using an self-ability)

Haven't gone through the lore of all gods - just Chinese and my own. I'll do a quick scan to see if others fit.

---

^pedit: I have Tammy as 'mild town' - please don't club me with Magua who's voting her.

[ooba]

OOBA - Nacho wants me to ask you how many nature/wild gods there are in MOBA?

I actually thought the best bet for 'Bramble' was 'Slyvanus' from your pantheon. (which is why I thought it was TD using an self-ability)

Haven't gone through the lore of all gods - just Chinese and my own. I'll do a quick scan to see if others fit.

---

^pedit: I have Tammy as 'mild town' - please don't club me with Magua who's voting her.

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahhahah

But is there any other nature people?

I was doing a quick scan and found the exact ability. TD's not lying (and target you) - he did target mastin.

http://smite.gamepedia.com/Artemis
- Transgressors Fate

[ooba]

OOBA - Nacho wants me to ask you how many nature/wild gods there are in MOBA?

I actually thought the best bet for 'Bramble' was 'Slyvanus' from your pantheon. (which is why I thought it was TD using an self-ability)

Haven't gone through the lore of all gods - just Chinese and my own. I'll do a quick scan to see if others fit.

---

^pedit: I have Tammy as 'mild town' - please don't club me with Magua who's voting her.

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahhahah

But is there any other nature people?

Maybe I'm too gullible but this makes me feel better about you.

Mega read post incoming.

[ooba]

Nah nah nah naaaaaaaah

I love that song.

Tammy I love you. This is Tammy riht

Hey - I'm making a picture post. Could you just confirm which one of TSO\aceofspaces is the third in your hood?

[ooba]

You haven't addressed his point about your kill method, MS.

Why stop with this line of questioning when there was no answer?

[ooba]

VOTE: rachmarie

VOTE: skybird

Why the move from Rach to Skybird? Because of the entire SW conversation?

[ooba]

Some wagon thoughts:

TheAceofspades (3): Xombie, Ooba, vezokpiraka
Skybird (3): Mastin2, Cephrir, Heartless
RachMarie (2): Bitmap, Farside22

- I like the ace wagon because all the people on it right now are town
- Cephrir's position on the Skybird wagon and Bitmap's presence on the Rach wagon does not inspire confidence

---

Looking at Pere, he votes ace for being the biggest wagon. But when he hops off, it is still the biggest wagon.

Tired so going to bed now, but biggest wagon + less posts than me=

Vote: AceofSpades

Vote: RachMarie

Counterwagon ho!!

---

Also, ace's gameplay is akin to survialist scum who just wants to survive. He lurked out his wagon and mysteriously appeared near deadline.

idk what to do

I thought you had it down pat. Lurk when there's a wagon on you and suddenly appear when it died down.

Also, I think town might have responded to this post instead of letting it go in a lot of cases - 'You're wrong', 'Fuck you'. Same behaviour shows up when voted early D2 - 'great cases' response appears to come from a scum mindset than a town one.

ace is scum and should be lynched today.

Associative tells:
- mastin who creates an entire post about wagons - mentions how theace wagon could be scum on scum, and keeps mentioning ace multiple times - but actually votes Skybird.
- Also, ace's entire mastin case and push reads like a newbie bus.

Anyway, not sure of the pairing that much - but ace needs to be the one to go.

[ooba]

What would be garbage is your own skill at reading people in the game if that shot hits.

[ooba]

Honestly neither the farside nor the ooba shots are bad.
If farside and/or ooba are town, they're definitely assets and their loss would be bad, but both are not exactly shining the obvtown light everywhere. Either flip would potentially give more info, helping to clear things up a little more.

You suspect ace - an ace flip would give far *more* info especially because of his wagon on D1.

Let the good players who know me from previous games read me - my town and scum games are so distinctively apart that its funny. Scum me doesn't care which townsperson gets lynched.

[ooba]

What would be garbage is your own skill at reading people in the game if that shot hits.

im a 3rd party racist i dont care who dies

Or your town who couldn't run his neighbourhood gambit properly by thinking up a relevant fake shot name. Either way, that reflects on your skill, not mine.

[ooba]

ebwop: ^*you're

[ooba]

We may be drifting closer to KOTORrir right now and I am not sure why. I don't like him and would like it if he could stay in his hole.

What is KOTOR?

[ooba]

We may be drifting closer to KOTORrir right now and I am not sure why. I don't like him and would like it if he could stay in his hole.

What is KOTOR?

As in Knights of the Old Republic - but what does it have to do with me?

[ooba]

Beast pushes: TD, House, Vezok, MS, Skybird

I can safely say that at least four of these are town or town equivalent. I've given him enough leeway - he promised to post today and is lurking hardcore. Consider my vote as standing for this wagon too.

[ooba]

Beastcharizard is going the same way as he did in touhou. I don't like it.

Link please?

[ooba]

Flavor/god naming/setup spec is, at best, pointless, and at worst, a cover. ooba, Xombie, and Imperium are the biggest offenders and I don't like either of them doing it.

Easily half of ooba's posts are either about brambles or about which Chinese god Metal Sonic is.

This is not even close to the truth. 5 out of 70 is not half.

Imperium thought TD lied about targeting mastin and I helped them figure out alternatives.

@Farside: I'd say ace, beast, Bitmap

[ooba]

If people ignore me I'll just make my own choices.

I'll give it 24 hours.

Let me re-read some ISOs with the assumption that you're conf-town. Might change the top three. (Rach for example)

---

On the post count

As long as a player is making clear what his reads are, is pushing the game state to lynches he\she wants and is posting reasonably frequently (avoiding prods and once every two days) - there's nothing wrong with that.

In fact it might be better than continuously spamming the thread. Lesser page totals equals fewer town players losing morale because they just can't keep up.

On my setup spec=scummy

"I also wonder why you are only interested to disprove the fact, rather than the point" - Actually if you read the post, I also disprove the point in the very next line.

Elaborating why my setup spec is not scummy.
a) The fact I pointed about you was that 'Sine Arcshot' cannot be an ability in the game. That is valuable info for the town to have. The speculation that you might be a racist also helped out draw some useful reactions from others.
b) Second, Imperium was suspicious of TD based on possibly incorrect role based assumptions. I helped clarify that. Helping one town read back off attacking another town read isn't scummy too.

[ooba]

I'm thinking beast, td and FourTrouble.

Re-evlauated. I'd put Rach in the town pile. Vezo is town.

I would have said TD is town but he's not done anything D2. The above {beast, TD, FT} looks like a good team. If two of those three flip scum, you can add SW to the scum pile.

[ooba]

Ah. A three way executioner thingie.

Heartless and me are discussing beast.

Vote: FT

[ooba]

I'm going to throw this out there.

Farside scum, especially Farside-scum-with-Rach-scum, wouldn't have kept Rach out of the three choices. That brings about too much heat. This makes me feel much better about Farside.

@Skybird: It has to do with two things spotted in the neighbourhood.

@MS: Yes. Or Dueler. My bad on the misnaming.

[ooba]

It's not that you don't have content. It's that you don't have a lot of content, and then you do have posts interspersed that are content-lite to content-free (3189, 3451, 3737, 3786, 3789, 3794, 3800, 3881, 4110, etc I stopped there).

For those lazy to click:
3189 - The vote count he mentions

3786, 3789 - Discussion with Imperium on TD brambles
3800 - Setup Spec

3451 - Asking people to stop discussing whether AP would have played SK to the tune of town and move on to the D2 lynch discussions
3737 - Asking MS to answer the case
3794 - Highlighting how Imperium's push on TD made me think they are town
3881 - Pushing SW on the fact that they stopped questioning MS without getting an answer
4110 - Heartless move to Skybird was surprising. So asking for reasons.

Neither 'TiphaineDeath and the brambles, or about Metal Sonic being a racist, etc, that are completely

IIoA

useless.' -> I've highlighting a post where I state how the setup spec in these two cases isn't useless.

[ooba]

@Cephrir: I feel, paradoxically, that it would be better if oobas were just not posting rather than posting fluff, since I read the fluff as trying to give the illusion of activity.

My posting is not fluff.

Be selective in reading and what you respond to. I'm done with you.

[ooba]

Beastcharizard is going the same way as he did in touhou. I don't like it.

Link please?

Yoink

He was active for about three posts and then basically lurked for the whole game until he was mislynched lategame, but he slowly started getting people onto his ass for it as time went on. The primary reason it took so long to get to him was the sheer amount of distractions in the midgame.

I don't remember beast being scum

I actually read D5 and tried to figure out if beast was some sort of death GF since OP flip has him as town.

So your point is that beast is town in this game and it is the same trajectory as TOUHOU?

[ooba]

FT's intial questioning\analysis looks fine but it's the pushes he chooses that I have problems with: Anamikus, Vezok, TD,

Ceph

, beast,

mastin

The two bolded are fine I guess. I also find a lot of confidence behind the town reads - me, farside - but that's a minor point. Might be barking

@People with experience with mastin scum - does he have a history of asking team mates to claim fake stuff the following day? (Like asking TD to claim RB on him to make TD sound more town. mastin-scum would probably know people won't lynch him on the basis of that claim)

[ooba]

*^addn: Might be barking up the wrong tree. Not sure.

[ooba]

How did you know what pantheon we were in?

I'm keep a slide of players\neighbourhoods. I don't have detailed notes for how I made each of the deductions/jumps. From memory:
- You weren't Egyptian because I am
- You weren't Greek because you replied to House saying you wanted to be in Olympus
- MS claimed Chinese and his two neighbours pretty early on D1
- Pegged {You\SW\Bitmap\xx} as Roman from the rest initially because "strongman with 2 kills" sounded liked Hercules and I'm pretty sure I spotted a Cupid thing from SW
- Reaffirmed when MS said 'Janus' after being Bitmap'd

Basically, assumed pantheon based on some breadcrumbs. Didn't spot anything that contradicted that info after that.

---

I'll be busy with some RL personal stuff for the next couple of days. Expect skimmed one liner replies. Right now - I still think FT is the best bet for scum (like adorkable in Capcom). But I'm no where as sure since FT's not as bad a adorkable. I think beast will be today's lynch and I'd rather we do this mislynch now than in D6. Probably never going to vote TD.

V\LA till 23rd

^pedit: @Cephrir: That's the second 'anti-morale' post from you. ('This game is really dense and kinda losing my interest a bit right now. I will probably get re-energized when the game stops feeling like slogging through liquid asphalt.') Whats wrong? It's not that bad.

[ooba]

Hello! I'm back from V/LA.

Welcome Ozgin. What do you think of your neighbourhood?

[ooba]

It only makes a difference when a lot of people die, so in a way if a lot of town get killed in one night, and it makes a scum obvious, then I can help work towards retribution for the Order.

'Scales of Fate' - how do you tip the scales towards the other side when there are 0 kills a night?

[ooba]

So I think I have to retract my earlier statement bout Four not being scummy, because after reading a little bit of their ISO, from the gate they seem to be a very try-hard sort of character. Since I'm unfamiliar with the players' meta, I'm not sure if that's just how they play town, or it's a scum trying to overcompensate for the fact they're scum by pushing hard on other people.

Regardless, it stands out to me as something fairly abnormal.

VOTE: FourTrouble

I promise I'll get more into this game as I get time, I just replaced into a really awkward/tough position as a townie and it's really defeating and I have to muster up a lot of evidence if I'm going to build a town case for myself.

While I agree with SW that my exact first thought was 'Whoa. Abrupt switch. Perhaps coached?' - my second thought was that any competent scum team would have also realised that a switch would look scummy at this point.

This entire post makes me think Oz town. Although please answer my two questions.

---

ace's 'Idk why people are voting beast' while voting beast is the scummiest thing on that page. Also, I think I might have been too premature in reading Anamikus as town before.

[ooba]

Also, I think I might have been too premature in reading Anamikus as town before.

What do you mean by "before"?

As in, I've had you as 'Town' all throughout before this. Did not like the push on Oz.

---

Ooba, why are you voting me? What changed your read on me from "not lynching" to "scummiest player among beast and TD"?

Currently, I think there's a high chance that all three of you are town. You at least fall into the bucket of 'scum player who could be playing well'.
- TD's roleblock and the fact that he hasn't even voted one of the two counter wagons makes him town
- I had a mild 'town because he doesn't care' on beast throughout and Oz's switch on you sounded genuine

[ooba]

Currently, I think there's a high chance that all three of you are town. You at least fall into the bucket of 'scum player who could be playing well'.
- TD's roleblock and the fact that he hasn't even voted one of the two counter wagons makes him town
- I had a mild 'town because he doesn't care' on beast throughout and Oz's switch on you sounded genuine

This is the biggest bullshit explanation I've heard, ever. Earlier, you agreed with farside's 3 choices for scum. Yet now we're all town? Okay. Sure.

TD's roleblock didn't mean shit to you when you told farside you agreed with her 3 choices. So that's bullshit.

Re: beast -- you're spouting more bullshit. You've been gearing up to vote him all day, all the way until farside used her role. When farside asked you 3 players who you think are scum, beast was one of them. Even before that, you said you'd be happy joining a wagon on beast. Yet when farside finally uses her role, you vote me? That "mild town" on beast throughout is bull fucking shit, man.

Ooba's scum. This post, right here, is a 100% bullshit attempt to justify voting me. And it certainly doesn't square with anything he's said about me, TD, or beast the entirety of this Day.

So I change my reads. This won't be the first time in this game and it certainly wouldn't be the last.

There are far too many people calling you town and fighting against your lynch as opposed to TD and beast. Scum-me wouldn't have really pursued this lynch over all this opposition.

[ooba]

No matter how you size it up, the statement "I had a mild townread on beast throughout" is a little difficult to get around

The closest I come to voting him is when I call him out for his pushes and lurking. Then we discussed beast in the neighbourhood - not to mention Anamikus link. Replace 'throughout' with 'most of the time' if it makes more sense.

Plus, what's my angle? If 'I've been setting myself up to vote beast all throughout D2' as FT puts it - then why not vote him when farside uses the power? There are two reasons I can think of:
(a) beast is town. FT is a far more juicer mislynch: Tough one of pull off since a lot of people are defending\town reading him.
(b) beast is scum. And I suddenly feel an urge not to bus him: If you think I'm scum with him - vote Oz\beast. We'll revisit this conversation if he flips scum.

---

Even with ace on the wagon, I like the TD wagon better than the oz one. Also echoing veto's thoughts on 'rant after game if FT is scum'.

Unvote. Vote: TD

[ooba]

Spoiler: FT's post

This is for Tomorrow:

That was very weird to read through.

You barely here this game.

The town beast in Once Upon cared more and pushed more.

Ooba's first comment about beast ain't a townread.

- I thought scum-beast would have been more active - but I don't like how he's hiding behind a role ('Oh I'm voteless - I cannot be scum'). Still would lean town.

But 1000 posts later, as some folks have begun voting beast as a potential D1 wagon, beast is slight town.

D1 ends, D2 starts, and Ooba starts "reevaluating" his reads:

Beast pushes: TD, House, Vezok, MS, Skybird

I can safely say that at least four of these are town or town equivalent. I've given him enough leeway - he promised to post today and is lurking hardcore. Consider my vote as standing for this wagon too.

Ooba explicitly states that his vote is, at least in effect if not in actuality, on beast. Also note the strong townread on TD here.

About 60 posts later, farside asks for three choices of scum, and Ooba lists beast in the group:

@Farside: I'd say ace, beast, Bitmap

40 posts later, beast is still scum:

I'm thinking beast, td and FourTrouble.

Re-evlauated. I'd put Rach in the town pile. Vezo is town.

I would have said TD is town but he's not done anything D2. The above {beast, TD, FT} looks like a good team. If two of those three flip scum, you can add SW to the scum pile.

Ooba's reevaluated -- TD's scum now -- but beast is still scum. That read hasn't changed.

Ah. A three way executioner thingie.

Heartless and me are discussing beast.

Vote: FT

Based on everything Ooba's been saying, you'd expect him to vote beast. Yet Ooba reverts to voting me. I'm gonna pause here to go through Ooba's last two posts regarding me on D2 (before reevaluating and sanctioning farside's 3 choices of scum):

Vote mastin

FT, I specifically ISO'd you yesterday during the break and came up with 'most prob town' - please post more

Then:

You will not get my vote for the following lynches:

21. Magua iHouse (House and Eyestott), House
8. TiphaineDeath
12. Farside22
13. Solar Wind (F-16_Fighting_Falcon and fferyllt)

14. FourTrouble

18. The Mask
22. vezokpiraka
3. Mastin2 Dcane
24. Xombie

How does voting me over beast square with anything Ooba has said throughout D2?

The next relevant post:

I'll be busy with some RL personal stuff for the next couple of days. Expect skimmed one liner replies. Right now - I still think FT is the best bet for scum (like adorkable in Capcom). But I'm no where as sure since FT's not as bad a adorkable. I think beast will be today's lynch and I'd rather we do this mislynch now than in D6. Probably never going to vote TD.

After supposedly reevaluating things, Ooba sanctions farside's 3 choices for scum -- beast, me, and TD. Yet now -- although nothing has changed since the last time beast, me, TD have posted -- beast and TD are both strong townreads, and I'm a meh read. Unless I'm missing something, either this post is fake, or Ooba's scumread on beast, me, and TD (based on sanctioning farside's 3 choices) is fake. Or both.

Finally:

---

Ooba, why are you voting me? What changed your read on me from "not lynching" to "scummiest player among beast and TD"?

Currently, I think there's a high chance that all three of you are town. You at least fall into the bucket of 'scum player who could be playing well'.
- TD's roleblock and the fact that he hasn't even voted one of the two counter wagons makes him town
- I had a mild 'town because he doesn't care' on beast throughout and Oz's switch on you sounded genuine

beast being mild town throughout "because he doesn't care" is more bullshit; it doesn't square with anything Ooba has said. Saying he wants to get beast's "mislynch" over with isn't saying beast is "mild town"; that's calling him strong town. Saying that his vote is effectively on beast isn't saying beast is "mild town"; that's calling beast scum. And listing beast as one of his 3 top scumreads (which is effectively what farside asked Ooba to do) isn't saying that beast is "mild town"; that's calling him scum, too.

Lynch Ooba Tomorrow. Please. That's all I ask. I'm as certain about his lynch as I can be about anything in mafia. beast's flip is not relevant to the above analysis.

So you still haven't answered 'Whats my angle as scum?'. Why would I take these positions with respect to him?

[ooba]

HOLY CRAP
Andrius replaces RachMarie.
what a fucking GOD
(haha, get it?)

ANDRIUS! <3

[ooba]

Well, that was fucking stupid.

- We're not lynching FT apparently
- We can't lynch Oz because his lover Cephrir is town who wants to use his ult today. I also read Oz as town.
- Therefore, we can lynch TD. Dram doesn't have a to find a replacement.

Esp, you still want to catch up? I'm all for waiting.

Also, this day could have gone SO much better if farside and Falcon had just outright claimed their abilities. We could have lynched two suspicious players.

[ooba]

I don't think Ceph dies, from what I can tell about F-16's role.

It expires at Twilight. Twilight is after lynch so Ceph will die if we lynch Oz.

So effectively, we could have had two lynches per day with this role. [Apart from some town\scum roles that couldn't be loverized, I'm guessing]

What a powerful role! I wish I had got that. Also, I can't even begin to speculate about what scum might have to compensate.

[ooba]

I've been playing under the assumption I'd be night-killed very soon, given the number of folks calling me town -- F-16, Ceph, Nacho, mastin, etc. -- and also because I think I'm 100% right about at least Ooba.

Funny how I'm not voting you and voting TD right now. My reads change - doesn't make me scum.

Also - I'm now of the opinion that TD is the best lynch for today.

[ooba]

No lynch is absolute garbage.

Ozgin (6): FourTrouble, TheWayItEnds, Andrius, Ankamius

We're not lynching Oz because that's a 2 for 1 where at least one (Ceph) is most prob. town. [And mostly Oz too]

You guys should move your vote.

---

I'm not lynching cephrir. I'm not lynching Zelink.

So, FT dies or we no lynch. neither option excites me overly much.

We're lynching Zelink.

[ooba]

I'll probably shoot Ooba, but we can talk about that. I need to hit scum to get the bulletproof.

I'm a bad shot.

There's a reason why my ENITRE neighbourhood is town reading me.

Also Magua is a bad shot.

[ooba]

Skybird\ace

I would even throw in Esp there as a possible shot. I'd put him as the same category as adorkable in Capcom. On the plus side, if he is scum, this should confirm both of us.

[ooba]

Please explain for the uninitiated

adrokable was scum in Capcom. Gave me bad vibes. Death note asked for day-vig possibles - I suggested adorkable - Deathnote agreed and shot him. Confirmed both of us - I was a mislynch possibility till that time but had to night killed that night because of the town cred.

Regarding Esp.
- I thought Bitmap's posting was really effy (if you remember the 'I don't like that wagon because Bitmaps on it')
- Esp. voting FT this day actually fit the bill of 'scum trying to off a fairly universal town read'. Esp. couldn't have read the thread by then to form concrete opinions on Oz\TD\FT - so it might have come from his scum thread.

---

Cephrir, yes.

Ooba, do you have a case on me or just being lazy?

I'm being lazy - it boils down to 'I can see you being part of the scum team I have in my head'. Also I never liked Brantz.

[ooba]

FT, do take the shot now if you're going to take it. We don't have much time to deadline.

Also, please don't shoot any of the Egyptians - Andy\Cephrir\heartless. We have a good thing going.

[ooba]

I highly doubt that Ooba/Andrius/Ceph/Heartless are all town.

I didn't say we're all town - but that's an assumption we're working with right now and it's getting us somewhere.

[ooba]

Spoiler alert: town blocs are sometimes formed including scumreads for good reasons.

Exactly.

I pretty sure there's a very good possibility that one scum is in my neighbourhood - I've even considered scenarios where two of them are. In all scenarios, if you shoot and shoot wrongly and hit town in my hood (esp. since you're calling me '100% scum') - you are actively hurting town's chances.

There are 1/2/3 scum outside my hood - aim for them.

[ooba]

There are 1/2/3 scum outside my hood - aim for them.

Almost every single hood is saying this. Either directly (like you) or indirectly (like mastin and snowflake-senpai suggesting their hoods are basically masonries).

At least your hood doesn't seem to be entirely town-reading each other, but it's unreasonable to ask people to look elsewhere and not award every other hood who says this the same courtesy. Which means lynching no one. Yay!

Not almost every hood is saying this.

MS started off by saying he thought Chinese were all town but has softened on Skybird.
Mastin said ZZZX is 100% town.

With F-16 dead town, do you really think your own hood is 100% town?

[ooba]

@FT
I say again - my town fucking meta and my scum games are miles apart. At least read those before taking a moronic shot because you disagree with playstyle\semantics.

[ooba]

This "what's my angle" question is irrelevant to the analysis. But depending on the flips, I think there's different plausible "angles.”
And unless you can follow through with thought this fully, you’re just conf-biasing.
Here are two scenarios:
- I am scum; beast scum
- I am scum; beast town
- I am not scum
In the first two cases, my entire trajectory on beast doesn’t make sense. I’m not going to be visibly pushing my scum buddy especially with the build up to it. Likewise in the second scenario.

You say there’s not a many day gap between 4250 and 4298. There are 17 hours. And heartless\Cephrir\Me discuss a lot of our reads in the PT at this time - including beast. I re-evaluated my own. In fact, I was about to say ZZZX would be a better choice than beast but then the gladiate happened.

So the scummy case as you put it - isn't scummy at all. I changed my mind on beast. Subsequently, I've also changed my mind on you.

---

Plus there's a reason why people who've played with me before town read me.
- http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Ooba
Town: GoT Upick, Battle for Olympus - more recently Capcom, Once upon a winter night

Bottom-line: I care more as town - as to which lynches are happening\figuring the puzzle out\defending myself.

[ooba]

Ooba is dead. I just told dram to shoot him.

Please lynch FT for this.

Magua is town.

[ooba]

Well, I'm sorry if you're town man.

No you're not. You're scum.

I literally cannot believe anybody who read N's game can come to the conclusion I'm scum this game
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=31182

You had two of my scum buddies from that game (Nacho\Andy) vouching for my town status. They're also two players who can read me really well. Aren't you the one who mentioned Solar Wind's reads? Look at his paragraph on me in his read list.

Did you take a look at how I interacted with wagons? My Pere suspicion looked like a bus? If you've really analysed this, who are my ~3 partners in this game?

[ooba]

If you've really analysed this, who are my ~3 partners in this game?

[ooba]

Who are my ~3 partners, ooba?

Imperium, heartless since they've avoided your wagon like the plague.
AceOfSpades for the bussing partner.

Haven't had time to analyze FT's possible pairings since I town read somewhere mid gladiate.

[ooba]

Who are my ~3 partners, ooba?

Imperium, heartless since they've avoided your wagon like the plague.
AceOfSpades for the bussing partner.

Haven't had time to analyze FT's possible pairings since I town read somewhere mid gladiate.

if ooba is scum I suppose ignoring every single post after getting killed is perfectly perfect.
thoughts?

If it were someone else in the same spot, I would say every post since FT declared he had a 1-shot vig ultimate would\should be possibly ignored for WIFOM. It was quite clear FT was going to vig me after the '100% scum' comment earlier in the day.

[ooba]

Or is that just possible partners you've been thinking about if I happened to be scum?

This.

I have (or rather had) a feeling all three gladiates were town after re-analysis.

[ooba]

Or is that just possible partners you've been thinking about if I happened to be scum?

This.

I have (or rather had) a feeling all three gladiates were town after re-analysis.

Can u explain the td town read?

Well
- TD started off as a very early town read for his initial push on Solar Wind. People tend to town read others who agree with them. By going against the consensus, TD sets himself up to be noticed. Not sure scum TD would start with this play.
- He had a initial neighbourhood scum hunting focus - " I either have a full town neighborhood or bitmap is scum" - which I think is more often than that going to come from town
- I'm not sure how I felt initially but on thinking about it - The 'I don't want to break rules' reply to Ceph felt town-ish. I see scum stating the line with false bravado - hoping that puts town-ceph off lie-detecting him.

The D2 claim of 'Roleblocked Mastin' reinforced this.

ZeL hasn't had the time to make much of an impression. I like that he's questioning me to pump as much information (false or WIFOM as it maybe) if I'm scum.

The bramble thing was never explained though. Dram told Imperium it wasn't theirs. Mastin claims it isn't hers. There are very few characters who fit thematically to that power. If ZeL ever flips scum, I would look into that first. Also another reason to think Imp is a possible partner to ZeL.

Either way, town due to play. The role thing can be analysed when its mass claim time if he's still there.

---

^pedit: @TSO: I'm town reading Magua like 100% to the grave.

[ooba]

The beauty is that I shot Ceph, so I'm bulletproof!!!

Beautiful man.

Vote: No lynch

---

@Cephrir: You *really* know how to manipulate people's heartstrings! (Compliment, not a complaint)

Lemme read the neighbourhood to see if I can figure out what this Mask\crumb was about.

[ooba]

Info from neighbourhood:

- Ceph claimed during N1 that tried to use his ability on TD at the end of the day. Apparently it didn’t work.

Heartless:

Town
- Unless it’s *really good* scum theater, I don’t think heartless can be scum with Cephrir. TTH townread Ceph and Anti scumread Ceph. There’s also a lot of effort\posting\talking between the two of them. I just can't see scum going to these levels to fool Andy\me.
- He also appeals to heartless to govern the Oz lynch [during the F-16 loverize-hammer times] but this is null

Rach\Andrius:

Could be scum
- Rach hardly interacts much with Ceph in neighbourhood and vice versa
- When TTH starts out with ‘I’m town reading the two of you’ (meaning Ceph+ooba) ‘and I expect one scum to be there in every neighbourhood so Rach must be scum’ - Ceph replies with his ‘don’t neighbourhood spec - it’s most probably randomly arranged’
- Andy interacts with Ceph on his entry but he's good scum and I guess he could have realised lack of interaction between two of them is scummy - this is null

[ooba]

Metal Sonic's constant 'ooba is scum' I can understand because he knows I will remember his botched up racist 'arc sine shot' claim on D6 once the ~3 remaining Mafia are vigged\lynched.

---

Some of the others have to get on point. I'm not scum.

If we're doing a 'here's a readlist to prove I'm town', here's my significant readlist from D1. From the unflipped
- Vezo's 'I doc'd Ceph' is most prob. town
- TD's town because of ZeL's save on me. Also Ceph has a metric ton of TD suspicion in the neighbourhood thread
- TheMask is prob. town because Ceph really wanted to kill him (I share Magua's paranoia here but still lean town)

So, most of this was actually right.

Reversing the mild Rach town read - most recent posts don't seem to upset the apple cart too much and seem devoid of scum hunting.

I thought about this for about an hour with ISO'ing a bit. This is where I stand:
Town: mastin, Imperium,

SolarWind

, TiphaineDeath, iHouse, Ankamius
Town for specific reasons (other than gut):
- vezokpiraka (meta)
- farside (for Rach suspicion and posting)
- TheMask (vibe and voted FT)

Mild town for reasons:
- Xombie (vibe I had after my attack on him)
-

AP

(Just the various positions taken - but paranoid about this slot - since he could very easily be part of the scum group below - Pere\him probably not scum together based on above post)
- Skybird (for MS town-scum switch)
- Aeronaut (for the MS paranoia and outing MS role) -> very mild though

Can't say:
- TSO
-

beastcharizard

(I'll need to read his scum games to verify but I can't see him not playing as scum to this extent)
~~~~~ (Would say 'town' for above two if I had to give an opinion)
- Bitmap (Not as sure I was earlier in the day; goes back to null)
- Metal Sonic
- VysePresident (Really needs to post)

Scum group I can see: {Rach, FT,

Cephrir

, ZZZX or

Pere

}

[ooba]

Andrius and Espeonage have been removed from the game!

Right. Get an explanation for this power use D4.

Mastin - it's D3, time to deliver.

[ooba]

So what now?
We'll wait for mastin to claim?

We can voice suspicion\discuss.

Vote: Anamikus

Nothing in the ISO that made me go town. Pushes are all on peeps I read as town currently. The Oz vote after Ceph got loverized was weird - but I'll need to read it in context.

[ooba]

Mastin is either lying scum or town not playing to its full potential. Both would make me sad.

I'm still leaning town and am not interested in lynching him.

[ooba]

Anamikus is the play for today.

The fact that it gives a vig to FT is a bonus.

[ooba]

Having never played with Mastin I have no idea whether this is her town or scum game. However, telling us all we have to wait until D3 for her to prove she is town and now suddenly we are all going to have to wait again seems scummy to me.

This 'broken promise' thing - it's more often than not going to come from town who are caught with IRL stuff or just lazy.

Mastin scum could have just come up with any claim.

Unless Mastin's going for some sort of reverse-play the whole 'wait for D3' - 'oops' play seems too weak to come from scum.

[ooba]

Time to fire up a TSO ISO and see if I can spot what you guys are talking about.

[ooba]

- I don't remember what Ooba has done today outside of calling Anamikus scum.

This day is going to end with an Anamikus lynch barring something spectacular happening; I'm conserving my energy.

Also, the Egyptians miss Andrius in our QT.

[ooba]

Well I think magua reads are shit so I will ask someone else.
Ooba: why is anka a scum read.

There were no town markers or 'couldn't be scum with Pere or Ceph' markers in that ISO.

Other than that, it boils down to PoE - Some other slots I'm paranoid about but my shortlist is {Ankamius, T S O, mastin, Andrius, Esp.} and I think Ank is the best lynch of that lot.

[ooba]

Cep - just before FT announces his vig on D2:

I think Skybird, Ankamius, TSO and theaceofspades are scum.

I'd have to iso Skybird/ace/Ank/TSO to pick a top scumread.

When asked on who to shoot:

ace/skybird/tso

Also later:

Sky bird is the one I'd most like to see die

Since it has been implied he's bulletproof or something maybe that's a poor choice

I'd shoot Skybird first if that were possible but apparently it isn't.

---

This was during Metal Sonic's shot:

ace and peregrine are both good shots. beast, td and skybird are also acceptable.

---

- Ankamius possible scum partner - disappears from the list of scummy people after FT discloses his shot
- Ace is town for leading the 'who to shoot' during both vigs [Metal and FT]
- This is just vibe but i have a feeling the entire 'Shoot Skybird, but <here's why its a bad idea>' twice - is just for ISO purposes to make Skybird look bad. Leaning Skybird town.

I'll look at wagons to discuss teams

[ooba]

For future reference, VC 15 is wrong.

Dram missed Rach's vote in VC 14. He added her later at the end - but that messes with wagon positions. Corrected one below.

Votecount 15: Accurate votecounts are hard.

Theaceofspades (8): AngryPidgeon, Farside22, vezokpiraka,

Rachmarie

, mastin2, xombie, PeregrineV, Cephrir,

Rachmarie

FourTrouble (1): The Mask, iHouse
vezokpiraka (1): Skybird
TiphaineDeath (1): FourTrouble
AngryPidgeon (1): theaceofspades
Rachmarie (1): Ooba
Cephrir (1): TiphaineDeath
iHouse (0): beastcharizard

Not voting: ZZZX, Solar Wind, VysePresident, imperium, TSO, Ankamius, Aeronaut


Reminder that it's 12 to lynch and not 13.

Deadline 6 days and 8 hours!

[ooba]

I can see value in lynching Anamikus, but seeing as I don't think TSO will die via vig kill, I would rather make him dead today. Also, I don't have any strong feelings about Anamikus being a bad guy.

Though I would like to hear whether FourTrouble agrees with farside's assessment that Anamikus doesn't make much sense as a partner for PV because of neighborhood interactions.

You'll need to convince me on Anamikus being town.

Ace is somewhere slightly lower than Anamikus\TSO on my lynch list.

Anamikus lynch has the benefit of granting the vig. You keep reducing the utility of FT's vig saying it might be blocked - there's even utility to blocked shots (Watcher for scum-doc on TSO, Watcher for scum-RB on FT, Tracker on slot A to TSO etc.).

[ooba]

@FT: If Ana flips scum, I think you would be better served shooting from those who jumped onto the TSO\Mastin wagons. With two scum down, I would think they would do anything in their power to not lynch scum today.

Mastin2 (4): TSO, Vezokpiraka, Magua, theaceofspades, Skybird
TSO (4): Imperium, Zel1nk, Farside22, ZZZX
Ankamius (4): Ooba, Mastin2, Heartless, Metal Sonic
TWIE (0): TheWayitEnds

Not Voting: Drixx, Ankamius, FourTrouble

---

If Ana flips town, Andrius is a good shot.

Spoiler:

Votecount 15

Theaceofspades (8):

AngryPidgeon

, Farside22, vezokpiraka, Rachmarie, mastin2, xombie,

PeregrineV

,

Cephrir

FourTrouble

(1):

The Mask

,

iHouse

vezokpiraka (1): Skybird
TiphaineDeath (1):

FourTrouble

AngryPidgeon

(1): theaceofspades
Rachmarie (1):

Ooba

Cephrir

(1): TiphaineDeath

iHouse

(0):

beastcharizard

Not voting: ZZZX,

Solar Wind

, VysePresident,

Imperium

, TSO,

Ankamius

, Aeronaut

Votecount 20

Theaceofspades (6):

AngryPidgeon

, vezokpiraka, xombie, Rachmarie, Farside22, ZZZX

FourTrouble

(3):

The Mask

, Aeronaut
TiphaineDeath (3): Mastin2, Farside22, TSO

beastcharizard

(3): Skybird,

Cephrir

,

Imperium

Cephrir

(2): TiphaineDeath,

FourTrouble

RachMarie (2):

Ooba

,

PeregrineV

AngryPidgeon

(1): theaceofspades,

Magua

VysePresident (1):

Solar Wind

Skybird (0):

beastcharizard

Not voting: Heartless,

Ankamius

Votecount 24

AngryPidgeon

(8): theaceofspades,

Magua

,

Imperium

,

Ooba

, Vezokpiraka, Rachmarie,

Ankamius

, Heartless, TSO

beastcharizard

(5):

The Mask

,

Solar Wind

,

FourTrouble

, Xombie,

Cephrir

Theaceofspades (2):

AngryPidgeon

, ZZZX
RachMarie (2):

PeregrineV

, Farside22

FourTrouble

(2): Aeronaut
TiphaineDeath (1): Mastin2

Cephrir

(1): TiphaineDeath
Skybird (0):

beastcharizard

Not voting: Skybird

Votecount 26

AngryPidgeon

(11): theaceofspades,

Magua

,

Ooba

, Vezokpiraka, Rachmarie,

Ankamius

, TSO, Skybird, Heartless,

Imperium

,

The Mask

beastcharizard

(5):

The Mask

,

Solar Wind

,

FourTrouble

, Xombie,

Cephrir

Theaceofspades (2):

AngryPidgeon

, ZZZX
RachMarie (2):

PeregrineV

, Farside22

FourTrouble

(2): Aeronaut

Cephrir

(1): TiphaineDeath

Imperium

(1): Mastin2
Skybird (0):

beastcharizard

Votecount 30

Metal Sonic

(7): Heartless,

The Mask

,

Cephrir

,

PeregrineV

, Skybird, TSO, TiphaineDeath
TheAceofspades (3): Xombie,

Ooba

, vezokpiraka
Mastin2 (2): theaceofspades,

FourTrouble

Ankamius

(1):

Magua

Skybird (1): Mastin2

beastcharizard

(1):

Imperium

Heartless (1): Farside22

Imperium

(1):

Solar Wind

RachMarie (1): Bitmap

Magua

(0.5):

beastcharizard

Not Voting: Rachmarie,

Ankamius

, ZZZX, TheWayItEnds,

Metal Sonic

Votecount 35

TheAceofspades (4): Xombie,

Ooba

, vezokpiraka, Farside22
Skybird (2): Mastin2,

Cephrir

RachMarie (2): Bitmap, Heartless

Magua

(2):

beastcharizard

,

The Mask

beastcharizard

(2):

Imperium

, Skybird

Ooba

(1):

Metal Sonic

Metal Sonic

(1): TSO
Mastin2 (1):

FourTrouble

Bitmap (1): TiphaineDeath
TSO (1):

Magua

Not Voting: Rachmarie,

Ankamius

, ZZZX, TheWayItEnds,

Solar Wind

, theaceofspades

Votecount 57

Mastin2 (4): TSO, Vezokpiraka,

Magua

, theaceofspades, Skybird
TSO (4):

Imperium

, Zel1nk, Farside22, ZZZX

Ankamius

(4):

Ooba

, Mastin2, Heartless,

Metal Sonic

TWIE (0): TheWayitEnds

Not Voting: Drixx,

Ankamius

,

FourTrouble

9 to lynch.

Deadline is (expired on 2015-03-31 00:00:00)

So does TSO, mastin, Skybird etc., so in this scenario I'll let you know who would be a bad shot in my opinion.
- Magua: I think I've made my reasons clear
- Imperium: Paranoia aside, I can read this slot pretty well. Town
- Metal: For the Vig
Milder:
- Ace: I really can't believe Ceph would include his name twice in the 'to shoot' lists.

Apart from the first three (and me), I believe any shot in this game would be a good one.

[ooba]

Vote: Ankamius

If anyone cares enough about the reads I currently have, ask farside tomorrow. I'm still pretty sure that she's town. The fact that FourTrouble is going this route instead of wanting to try to prove my ability is making me doubt his towniness. Make him accountable for his shot and don't assume for a second that he's conftown.

Sorry for not doing more while I was around, but day 2 completely killed the game for me and dramonic has had to find more than enough replacements this game.

This post ignores that Ank hit Cephrir yesterday.

[ooba]

This post ignores that Ank hit Cephrir yesterday.

Do not understand.

Sorry I meant "This post ignores that FT hit Cephrir yesterday".

Vote: Ankamius

If anyone cares enough about the reads I currently have, ask farside tomorrow. I'm still pretty sure that she's town. The fact that FourTrouble is going this route instead of wanting to try to prove my ability is making me doubt his towniness. Make him accountable for his shot and don't assume for a second that he's conftown.

Sorry for not doing more while I was around, but day 2 completely killed the game for me and dramonic has had to find more than enough replacements this game.

This post ignores that Ank hit Cephrir yesterday.

Do you think it's unlikely that he shot his scumpartner for towncred + bulletproof?

Not the scum partner who gave the scum team a possible two kills every night.

[ooba]

I stand by my anka town read.

Anka's not posting\discussing reads in thread is a red flag for me.

When it's obvious I'm going to get lynched as scum, I try and limit the information I give out at the end. The self-vote also fits the profile.

[ooba]

There was no scum motivation to anka's claim. If it is true he could have with held the info and try to direct some day vig to shot him so he could transfer the kill to someone else.
Someone can tell me the scum motivation for the claim I'm all ears. Till then I have a vote for either Tso or Mastin ready to go.

In the absence of any claimed day vig today, you can't say what he would have done if there was one.

Plus between FT's Ult and MS's once every few days day vig - I'm fairly certain one can assume there's no more.

"The fact that FourTrouble is going this route instead of wanting to try to prove my ability is making me doubt his towniness." -> There's the scum motivation to ank's claim. Proving the ability has no impact on alignment. He's just wants to survive.

[ooba]

Thanks.

How far away is he?

L-1.

Be the hammerer you know you want to be.

[ooba]

Has ft decided his pick?

It's been discussed that locking in a certain kill right now only allows scum to mess with it more easily.

He's taking advice on who to shoot though.

[ooba]

There was no scum motivation to anka's claim. If it is true he could have with held the info and try to direct some day vig to shot him so he could transfer the kill to someone else.
Someone can tell me the scum motivation for the claim I'm all ears. Till then I have a vote for either Tso or Mastin ready to go.

In the absence of any claimed day vig today, you can't say what he would have done if there was one.

Plus between FT's Ult and MS's once every few days day vig - I'm fairly certain one can assume there's no more.

"The fact that FourTrouble is going this route instead of wanting to try to prove my ability is making me doubt his towniness." -> There's the scum motivation to ank's claim. Proving the ability has no impact on alignment. He's just wants to survive.

Four claimed to have the ability to shot still.

Yes - but Ana's role is applicable to day shots (actions) only and that had already been used up.

I have a passive and an ult. I choose someone at the start of the game. I chose Ankamius because I didn't know him and I didn't want to choose players I knew. If he's lynched, I get to vig someone that night. I then choose someone else, and the passive repeats itself. I also have a 1x day vig (it's my ult and it also makes me 1x bulletproof if I kill scum with it).

---

I keep coming back to this thread, hoping someone has hammered and we have a flip. So disappointing.

[ooba]

If I die by a mysterious day kill today - please insta lynch MS. Thanks.

Confirming everything heartless said about Andy's thoughts in our neighbourhood.

[ooba]

Some wagon thoughts:

TheAceofspades (3): Xombie, Ooba, vezokpiraka
Skybird (3): Mastin2, Cephrir, Heartless
RachMarie (2): Bitmap, Farside22

- I like the ace wagon because all the people on it right now are town
- Cephrir's position on the Skybird wagon and Bitmap's presence on the Rach wagon does not inspire confidence

???????

Yeah, second on the wagon? Scum.

Since when do you think Bitmap is scum?

Also, I thought this reaction was weird.

[ooba]

Well, damn. So much for my theory. (Outside godfather in which case Magua would be the luckiest son of a bitch ever.)
If I had gotten the result I was

hoping

for, we'd have dead scum in an instant, but alas, Magua is town.

I copped Magua last night and he is Order-aligned, thus, conftown. He was the read I was keeping close to my chest as a scumread, but that was clearly wrong.

Such a fucking waste.

[ooba]

What I'm more interested in is that MS's ultimate should have reset by today. But he makes no mention of it.

@Mastin

: Your Magua read\cop. Was it discussed in your neighbourhood about who you're going to target? Did either of the us two suggest\inception the idea?

[ooba]

Some rudimentary wagon analysis:
- Farside\TSO\Vezok would be people I'd highlight just for how the wagons look - at least one of them
- Mastin's D2 'The entire AP lynch was scum driven!' is suspect given how the entire wagon is flipping town.

Spoiler:

Votecount 15

Theaceofspades (8):

AngryPidgeon

, Farside22, vezokpiraka,

Rachmarie

, mastin2, xombie,

PeregrineV

,

Cephrir

FourTrouble

(1):

The Mask

,

iHouse

vezokpiraka (1): Skybird
TiphaineDeath (1):

FourTrouble

AngryPidgeon

(1): theaceofspades

Rachmarie

(1):

Ooba

Cephrir

(1): TiphaineDeath

iHouse

(0):

beastcharizard

Not voting: ZZZX,

Solar Wind

, VysePresident,

Imperium

, TSO,

Ankamius

, Aeronaut

Votecount 20 - Farside appears twice

Theaceofspades (6):

AngryPidgeon

, vezokpiraka, xombie,

Rachmarie

, Farside22, ZZZX

FourTrouble

(3):

The Mask

, Aeronaut
TiphaineDeath (3): Mastin2, Farside22, TSO

beastcharizard

(3): Skybird,

Cephrir

,

Imperium

Cephrir

(2): TiphaineDeath,

FourTrouble

Rachmarie

(2):

Ooba

,

PeregrineV

AngryPidgeon

(1): theaceofspades,

Magua

VysePresident (1):

Solar Wind

Skybird (0):

beastcharizard

Not voting: Heartless,

Ankamius

Votecount 24

AngryPidgeon

(8): theaceofspades,

Magua

,

Imperium

,

Ooba

, Vezokpiraka,

Rachmarie

,

Ankamius

, Heartless, TSO

beastcharizard

(5):

The Mask

,

Solar Wind

,

FourTrouble

, Xombie,

Cephrir

Theaceofspades (2):

AngryPidgeon

, ZZZX

Rachmarie

(2):

PeregrineV

, Farside22

FourTrouble

(2): Aeronaut
TiphaineDeath (1): Mastin2

Cephrir

(1): TiphaineDeath
Skybird (0):

beastcharizard

Not voting: Skybird

Votecount 26

AngryPidgeon

(11): theaceofspades,

Magua

,

Ooba

, Vezokpiraka,

Rachmarie

,

Ankamius

, TSO, Skybird, Heartless,

Imperium

,

The Mask

beastcharizard

(5):

The Mask

,

Solar Wind

,

FourTrouble

, Xombie,

Cephrir

Theaceofspades (2):

AngryPidgeon

, ZZZX

Rachmarie

(2):

PeregrineV

, Farside22

FourTrouble

(2): Aeronaut

Cephrir

(1): TiphaineDeath

Imperium

(1): Mastin2
Skybird (0):

beastcharizard

Votecount 30

Metal Sonic

(7): Heartless,

The Mask

,

Cephrir

,

PeregrineV

, Skybird, TSO, TiphaineDeath
TheAceofspades (3): Xombie,

Ooba

, vezokpiraka
Mastin2 (2): theaceofspades,

FourTrouble

Ankamius

(1):

Magua

Skybird (1): Mastin2

beastcharizard

(1):

Imperium

Heartless (1): Farside22

Imperium

(1):

Solar Wind

Rachmarie

(1): Bitmap

Magua

(0.5):

beastcharizard

Not Voting:

Rachmarie

,

Ankamius

, ZZZX, TheWayItEnds,

Metal Sonic

Votecount 35

TheAceofspades (4): Xombie,

Ooba

, vezokpiraka, Farside22
Skybird (2): Mastin2,

Cephrir

Rachmarie

(2): Bitmap, Heartless

Magua

(2):

beastcharizard

,

The Mask

beastcharizard

(2):

Imperium

, Skybird

Ooba

(1):

Metal Sonic

Metal Sonic

(1): TSO
Mastin2 (1):

FourTrouble

Bitmap (1): TiphaineDeath
TSO (1):

Magua

Not Voting:

Rachmarie

,

Ankamius

, ZZZX, TheWayItEnds,

Solar Wind

, theaceofspades

Votecount 57

Mastin2 (4): TSO, Vezokpiraka,

Magua

, theaceofspades, Skybird
TSO (4):

Imperium

, Zel1nk, Farside22, ZZZX

Ankamius

(4):

Ooba

, Mastin2, Heartless,

Metal Sonic

TWIE (0): TheWayitEnds

Not Voting: Drixx,

Ankamius

,

FourTrouble

9 to lynch.

Deadline is (expired on 2015-03-31 00:00:00)

Anyway think its a bit premature to mass claim - because the town info gain would not outweigh the scum information gain. We give them a road map to who to kill for a small change in reads based on roles. Maybe tomorrow - just don't feel it's right now.

Support a TSO lynch - not that I have a particular read - just that it culls down the "not sure" list. Also, reinforces town reads on a *lot* of slots if he does flip scum.

Vote: TSO

[ooba]

The entire page 225 is interesting reading
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p6639314

Also TSO's "Imagine me just hammering" and "I don't think I have ever began to actively anti-wc troll before but if it's ever going to happen, this game's the game." and Cephrir's reaction it to it. I can't judge whether it's manufactured\not (not enough history of playing with TSO)

[ooba]

I don't know why it died down, to be honest, but I think it was ooba who laid it out. It's why I don't think MS is town.

It'll solve itself in a few days. I don't see MS surviving to the end as *any* alignment.

add that to the hugely underpowered scum and we got something wrong.

Why do you think scum are underpowered? The two flipped roles are pretty powerful.

[ooba]

This game feels weird for some reason. If I had to guess, it's probably because of scum hardcore lurking and town fighting amongst each other.
- TheWayItEnds ( 5 days 22 hours )
- Espeonage ( 2 days 11 hours )
- theaceofspades ( 8 days 0 hours )

[ooba]

Somebody asked me if I thought all the scum were in those three heavy lurkers, I'd say no.

Town
2. Metal Sonic (or equivalent in this case)
14. FourTrouble
16. Imperium (Tammy and Nacho)
21. Magua iHouse (House and Eyestott), House
25. Heartless (TellTaleHeart and Antihero) VysePresident
8. Zel1nk TiphaineDeath

Even Milder
3. Mastin2 Dcane
5. Theaceofspade
22. vezokpiraka

Even lesser - I'm not sure why
10. ZZZX
4. Skybird BRantz

Not sure
7. TheWayItEnds Aeronaut, -Blonde-
24. Xombie
20. T S O
12. Farside22
23. Espeonage Bitmap

I would lynch Esp\Farside over TSO today. Interactions\positions\posting (or lack thereof) today seem to fit the scum profile.

[ooba]

Hey, ooba, how'd you go from MS-racist to MS-top townread? I get that was days ago, but the point stands.

Thats why I mentioned 'town equivalent'. I still think he's racist though. Only a flip will make me think otherwise.

That said, I would much rather that my neighborhood does our thing and gets a confirmed guilty on TSO (or one of the other two people we've narrowed it down to, but TSO seems like the obvious most scummy one), so that we can do our thing and create a trusted conftown group out of the three of us. I get that you might be skeptical of Mastin, but I'm just explaining why my vote isn't on TSO yet.

'Let's not lynch him so that we can cop him' usually always ends up badly for town.

---

Farside's replace out seemed townish.

[ooba]

how are you skipping over the fact that tso was blocked last night?

TSO was blocked yesterday night?

[ooba]

Three week deadlines are fine for D1 - but needs to be shorter as days move along.

This day is like a murder mystery where you know whodunit about 10 minutes in. Also most people seem to be snoring in the cinema.

[ooba]

For now, I am going to try and read through the day or so of the game

I would actually avoid Day 4 and start with Day 2 - that's probably the best day to read.

Also, are we there yet?

[ooba]

Can a few people give me a rundown of what happened day one? Feel free to add personal bias, and feel free to call out the bias in other people's summaries

All this is from memory so pardon me if I get this wrong.

D1 - We start off on some neighbourhood speculation. Some people breadcrumb or outright claim neighbourhoods. Xombie gets a smallish wagon for 'jokey' posts and other reasons - but that dies down because his responses seem town. Ace of spades is the wagon that dominates much of D1. It dies down close to deadline because people just don't 'feel' it. AP is a compromise wagon. Luckily he flips third party so it's not a wasted day.

D2 is more useful because
- We have a day vig who claims and asks for shots - Those reactions will be useful
- He hits scum so reactions to that will be useful
- We have a gladiate used between three players. I don't consider the wagons particularly telling but still - it's action packed as opposed to the snooze fest that is D1
- Then one of the wagoned claimed a 1-shot ult vig.
- I won't spoil the rest of the day but it has a modkill, scum flip and town flip

Overall: It's a minefield of interactions.

[ooba]

Level of read is depressingly low on TWIE, ooba, farside's-replacement-whom-I've-forogtten-already, theaceofspades, and Skybird.

Like it's so easy to get drowned out in the noise that those people are barely talking.

Like I mentioned before - it's quite obvious TSO is going to be lynched today.

I don't waste my energy or see the need to post unnecessarily. Or get into arguments with other players that go nowhere.

[ooba]

@FT - I think you should just go ahead with TSO if you're having trouble keeping up.

- Decent chance of flipping scum.
- Good lynch even if town - stops the tunnels, makes people re-evaluate. (Zel for example has been on TSO for the most part since D3)
- If he's left alive, all discussion is going to be center-ed around him. (Just like how D4 was)

Go for it!

[ooba]

But the vig is going to come before the lynch.

Sigh.

The day vig is his ult and has been used already.

We are waiting for FT to choose for his passive. If passive target is lynched - he gets a night shot.

If I'm to be lynched, and that seems to be the direction this Town wants to take, I have a role that should be used before that happens. I have a passive and an ult. I choose someone at the start of the game. I chose Ankamius because I didn't know him and I didn't want to choose players I knew. If he's lynched, I get to vig someone that night. I then choose someone else, and the passive repeats itself. I also have a 1x day vig (it's my ult and it also makes me 1x bulletproof if I kill scum with it).

Regarding lynching Ankamius to use my role,

that would require that we pick lynch targets the day before

, when I have to choose the next person.

As for "picking," I haven't done that yet and dramonic hasn't said anything yet... so who knows. I'm gonna pick TSO, unless there's any objections to that?

@FT: Did you confirm with Dram that you'd actually get a shot today?

[ooba]

As for "picking," I haven't done that yet and dramonic hasn't said anything yet... so who knows. I'm gonna pick TSO, unless there's any objections to that?

@FT: Did you confirm with Dram that you'd actually get a shot today?

By today I meant N4.

Letting you choose your passive during the day sounds unfair. Isn't this supposed to be some kind of 'Guess the lynch and you get a vig' mechanic?

[ooba]

Heartless probably governored his lynch.

No way!

Heartless-town wouldn't have done that.

[ooba]

I wanted to write something sarcastic, but I have nothing.

Note: I'm not saying I'm completely sold on heartless being town. (though the scum theatre in the neighbourhood was excellent)

What I meant was if they've governed TSO, then that's a scum claim in my opinion.

[ooba]

It gives me immunity for 3 phases, including the one I was "killed" in. So if I'm lynched today, I'm immune to death for today/tonight/tomorrow.

I also extend the deadline by a week, and refund daykillers their daykill.

This particular line made earlier in the day does not compute with TSO's current claim.

Yeah, but I'm unfortunately immune to vig. That was the entire point of saying I should be lynched.

With his claim, being 'killed' in any way leads to the same outcome - immune for three phases. So given that he's also claimed "refund daykillers their daykill" - there really isn't any difference between being vigged and lynched. So why a preference?

He has some sort of scum power that works only on his first lynch. [Notice how he subtly prompts people form shooting him in the night too - "I don't know if I refund nightvigs, it seems unlikely."]

---

I'm just going to quote Zel

Quick post: It is probably a good idea to lynch TSO even if it doesn't go through. More later.

[ooba]

Chronos in game has an ultimate that returns him 8 seconds in time. That's what probably happened.

'Rewind' does not explain why he would prefer lynching to vigging - since according to his claim, they are similar.

[ooba]

Er... It's not about whether or not he

would

do it, but for your plan to work, it kind of requires that he does do it.

I mean, to put it more conscisely, your plan relied on you still having the ability at LyLo and you don't even know if you still have it, apparently. At least that is the inference I'm making from #8345. I mean you're assuming you have it, but by the time LyLo comes around, if you were still alive, there's no guarantee you'd still have the ability.

So you could have automatically lost the game for town at LyLo if you're town.

I think you would have realised this if you were town. But no.

No response to a valid point like this?

[ooba]

Did you guys hammer TSO? I need to be on the lynch for my role.

Just vote TSO right now to be on the safer side.

[ooba]

Claim makes no sense whatsoever.

- "Planned to use it during LyLo" (which is laughable in itself) - "Hope I didn't get shot N1"
- "Better not vig me, I'd rather be lynched" - "Claims a role where vigging and lynching are equivalent (in fact, vigging might be better)"

Refuses to answer any major point - fakes apathy ("I don't give a shit)" but posts more this day than any other player.

---

Overall, if I had to guess, I'd say good chance of scum. (With heartless lurking hardcore, I can even see a situation where heartless secret governed TSO and TSO's trying to play that as his own power)

If town, a major distraction is removed and he has no one to blame except himself for that.

[ooba]

Good luck trying to lynch me.

Vote: TSO

Don't see anything in the mod post saying this can't happen - could be a simple vote reset power [Chronos and all] - worth trying out.

[ooba]

Good luck trying to lynch me.

Vote: TSO

Don't see anything in the mod post saying this can't happen - could be a simple vote reset power [Chronos and all] - worth trying out.

What is even the point of doing that outside of wasting time? There is going to be more scum than just TSO so why not take a stab elsewhere avoid wasting time?

I would have expected Dram to at least point out that "TSO cannot be voted again today" in that post.

We have 16 days - I don't see it taking anything wrong with trying this out, rather than taking at his word that he is immune.

[ooba]

Can someone please explain to me why we think Vezok is town? In ISO, he looks like the very definition of a modern major scumgeneral.

Zel has a good post on D4 where he replies to TSO.

However, that jump onto my wagon was terribad.

[ooba]

I support ooba's play here - I mean, clearly Heartless have saved me, so let's prove it!!!

- Could be Heartless govern
- It could just that your own power states 'Reset all votes on you to zero' as opposed to 'You're immune to lynch. Votes on you reset to zero'.

I'd anticipate dram to add a 'TSO can't be voted today at that VC' if you were immune.

I lose nothing in testing this out - I've pinged dram - he'll let us know in the next VC if that's the case.

[ooba]

I'm not particularly interested in lynching Ooba. Or pikari. I'm not sure about Heartless, but most ill feelings I have towards that slot are in relation to TSO. I'm not fond of an Espeonage wagon.

I could lynch TAOS today.

I'm re-reading the game.

What do you think about Skybird?

[ooba]

Because he wasn't voting TSO to test things; ooba was voting TSO to LYNCH him.

We have 16 days - I don't see it taking anything wrong with trying this out, rather than taking at his word that he is immune.

I lose nothing in testing this out - I've pinged dram - he'll let us know in the next VC if that's the case.

[ooba]

I don't know what to say, ooba, this is mindblowingly idiotic.

I tested it out. The voted didn't register - so obviously you're telling the truth.

I had to requite my statements because "Because he wasn't voting TSO to test things; ooba was voting TSO to LYNCH him." was obviously false.

---

Now I'm re-reading the game. I'll move my vote when I finish.

[ooba]

Finished going through D1. I kinda got tired in the end and rushed a bit - but I guess it doesn't matter since I'll update this.

While I've covered the entire day - I'll be concentrating on these three events:

a) Page 42: Early small wagon on Mantis (Ceph's predecessor)
- FT starts a push on the mantis wagon
- Imperium (Tammy) says she needs to talk to Nacho to move vote to Mantis
- Xombie joins in with a naked vote
- There's not much traction\discussion. Mastin says she might vote Mantis.
- FourTrouble keeps up the pressure but Mantis is replaced and Ceph joins in

b) Page 69 : Ceph gets wagon’d hard here
- I'll get into detail during individual player thoughts below. What happened was that FT + Solar Wind started a serious push on Ceph. We have a Ceph defense squad ranging from the light, to subtle replies to all out defense. This plus Ceph's play\talking down falcon makes the wagon die down.

c) Page 90 : A small push on Pere
- A small Pere push by imperium. Again some defense. Never gets as big as Ceph wagon and dies down in a couple of pages.

Spoiler: Farside

- The 'If there's any scum in my hood, it's probably PV' followed by the vote on PV later is town. The PV wagon died down but like all lurker wagons, there wasn't much support D1.
- During the Ceph wagon, farside came up with a full post on why Ceph is town. Again farside is a good enough player that WIFOM is tool she might use, but gut says not partners with Ceph.
- Plus while I'm not thrilled with the targets of D1 pushes (Rach, Ace) - I can't fault them too since those were scummy slots and most of the tunneling\cases felt town.
Overall: Town

Spoiler: Xombie

- The most weird thing with Xombie's play is that he voted MS a good 12 minutes after he makes his incredulous post. But responses to the early town wagon on him was genuine.
- On the mantis wagon, the naked vote plus no follow up\comment at all is *not* something I would see coming from a scum partner.
Overall: Leaning slight town

Spoiler: TSO

- There's nothing much to say about TSO's D1 play. While I was actually playing D1, I kept thinking scum wouldn't be this laid back or not care. I get the same feeling on the re-read.
- The only noteworthy part about interactions is when TSO defends PV because there was no real case. He also mentions 'I'm going to stay off this wagon'
Overall: Very slight town. Could be shifted to null too

Spoiler: TD\Zel

- This is most surprising find of D1 for me.
- First is TD's reaction with respect to the mantis wagon. FT's post surmises it best.
- Ceph's reasoning to vote TD is pretty weak. It feels like he took a small issue and acted like he had a problem with it to vote TD.
- While the Ceph wagon\pressure builds steam, TD votes Solar.
- TD also town reads Ceph for the Lie detector gambit. Which I'm finding hard to believe. TD voted Solar at the begging and again during the day - making me think there's a lot of Paranoia involved (esp. as Solar was towning it up a bit). The easy town read feels wrong.
- Ceph TD scum read also weakens.

TD's reaction to me wasn't town. Null at best.

VOTE: beastcharizard

- In both cases, I find it hard to believe that such strong scum reads virtually disappeared.
Overall: Scum based on interactions with Ceph. It feels like a bus that was dismantled after the growing pressure on Ceph. Plus earlier Mantis interactions.

Spoiler: Theaceofspades

- There's really not here on D1 to go with. Not many stances.
- Ceph's jump onto the ace wagon with 'That's 8 i believe' makes me think not partners with Ceph.
Overall: Slight town lean based on second point.

Spoiler: Bitmap(Esp)

- Bitmap's annoyance and power usage felt town.
Overall: Left a bit too early during the day to firm up this read but leaning town based on what I saw so far

Spoiler: MS

- The calling beast and TSO masons and lot of the posts are LoL. I just don't think scum would made half of those.
- I really didn't try looking into his posts too much since I had as town for the shot. I'll look into the shot in D2 to see if it felt like scum setting up a shot on fellow up.
Overall: If you had to ask me on D1 play alone, I'd still lean town cause no scum's going to do some of the stuff he did.

Spoiler: Blonde\Aeronatu\TWIE

- Blonde's play was null. Some people mentioned that 'some people take the game way too seriously' looked town. I did not see it.
- Ceph mentioning the soft claim in this post did surprise me. I assumed he fast read during his catch (like I did here) and I actually had to go back to see the post for the soft claim.
- Aeronauts catch up was really IIoA. Plus the 'wait a second' reaction to MS's discrepancies in claim seems faked. Why would scum MS be so stupid is a question begging to be asked.
- The scum list in post 1777 is like the whos-who of town {Farside, Solar Wind, Imperium, Fourtrouble, MetalSonic}. If someone has the time, please go through some of Aero's scum games and see how he makes his read lists.
- Lurked through the rest of the day
Overall: Prob. scum

Spoiler: FT

Overall: Sustained pressure on Mantis\Ceph makes this unlikely to be a bus. I don't see scum come out guns blazing on a very powerful teammate. Plus analysis\pushes is spot on. And all this even without taking the shot into account. Town.

Spoiler: Imperium

- Their start to the game seemed incredibly town. [Tammy on Nacho saying they were strongman scum]. The anger at the heartless govern\end of day mastin opposition was genuine - its something I felt too and I don't think that's fake-able from scum.
- Interactions wise they started the push on Pere, but they also did defend Ceph.
- There was also a 'multiball' comment somewhere that made me think town.
Overall: Town

Spoiler: Vyse\Heartless

- Ceph's reaction to Vyse is a bit scummy. I'd lynch this slot but they're really null. Every statement about Vyse seems to fit that mould.
- I also stand by not seeing Vyse's 'I'm gonna post notes' - sorry 'I'm off' as coming from scum. Not putting too much faith into this as this kind of thing trips me up. [The town read in GoT uPick - I forgot the name - Z]
- Heartless 'bullerproof' spec and the govern thing seemed town.
Overall: A mild town read - but nothing too solid here

Spoiler: Brantz\Skybird

- Brantz's initial posting felt odd in the pre confirmation stage - wanting to appear part of the group. Doesn't affect alignment. The replace out did feel towish.
- When I was reading along, I thought Skybird was town for adding pressure on Ceph during the push on him. Now when ISOing, I actually notice that's not followed up with a vote on Ceph. Still town more than scum feels from this.
- I also don't see a scum partner throwing a one game meta read of fellow scum. (Pere) Seems weak.
- Now skybird reverses this opinion on PV here. Mastins snipes this post saying how Skybird's reads mirror popular opinion. But, the pressure on PV had already died a couple of pages back and most people were now against lynching PV. Seems like town genuinely reversing reads.
- Now at the end of the day, Skybird's "Can you flashwagon me? Town needs a flip." was kinda weird. I don't have Skybird pegged as an emotional kinda player and the annoyance seems a bit odd (as opposed to Imperiums). But again, Skybird feels like a good enough player that scum him would know ageing Imperiums call to lynch them would only bring on added pressure than town cred.
Overall: Going with Town here. That's the read I had when reading along and while final ISO diluted that a bit, still town.

Spoiler: ZZZX

- Wow. A true null. Can't say much from 'Ceph vs Solar is twt' throwaway comment.
@ZZZX: You really need to start

playing

the games you sign up for. Limit the games you signup for until you can post consistently in all.

Spoiler: Vezo

- Vezo's initial read is fine.
- But his hard defense of Ceph is noteworthy.
- Also this is funny but "Lynching lurkers is better than lynching town who's actually doing something." that he said during Ceph's defense is the exact opposite of "Call me when you man up and decide to lynch scum and not slots that aren't even playing." today.
Overall: I'm having a tough time deciding here. First, I have a vezo meta read of town for this play this game. But his scum game is a two year old game (that I modded) that he won a scummy for. The most recent meta is Reck's game - but I guess scum vezo would ape his most recent town game. I'll need to see more D2 because I just can't make out from D1 play here.

Spoiler: House\Magua

- I hated the fact that the vengeful was offered to the town
- House defends Ceph on a lot of occasions. Whether it was telling TD that Occhams razor lost his last town game or questioning\chainsawing Skybird when Skybird mentions Ceph suspicion. However, the question to Ceph's read and the further strengthening of the town read seems like genuine town as opposed to scum theatre.
- Magua called PV and TD lynchbait. This probably looks worse to me on hindsight.
Overall: Leaning town. Slighter than the other reads.

Spoiler: Mastin

- D1 Play wise was very average. Barely any scumhunting
- Also these two interactions are noteworthy.
a) "If someone claimed to vig one of us three, I'd frankly take it as a scumclaim, not a vigclaim." (Three targets mentioned were AP\Mastin\Ceph)
b) "When Ceph and I have both pushed TD and TD has pushed back." as a reply to FT's scum team call out of Ceph\Mastin\TD\some lurkers. I'm also surprised she remembered this detail when coasting.
Overall: Can't determine anything from this day.

Based on D1 alone (for the most part - it's not like I forget what happened later)
Town: FT, MS, Farside, Imperium
Slight Town lean: Bitmap, Ace, Heartless, Skybird, House\Magua, TSO
Null: ZZZX, Vezo, Mastin
Scum: TD, Aeronaut

Back after D2.

[ooba]

Ace is a bad lynch for two reasons:

a) First, both Pere's "Less posts than me etc." jump and Cephs "That's 8" jumps didn't feel like buses. They were more than ready to lynch Ace.

b) Second, Ceph mentions Ace twice in his 'To shoot' lists.

ace and peregrine are both good shots. beast, td and skybird are also acceptable.

ace/skybird/tso

I also advocate against shooting ooba

Especially the first one. I hardly think Ceph would have given a list of two scum buddies leading the list to MS-vig.

[ooba]

Imperium, Ace is a bad lynch.

Ace is a bad lynch for two reasons:

a) First, both Pere's "Less posts than me etc." jump and Cephs "That's 8" jumps didn't feel like buses. They were more than ready to lynch Ace.

b) Second, Ceph mentions Ace twice in his 'To shoot' lists.

ace and peregrine are both good shots. beast, td and skybird are also acceptable.

ace/skybird/tso

I also advocate against shooting ooba

Especially the first one. I hardly think Ceph would have given a list of two scum buddies leading the list to MS-vig.

While reading through D1, it felt like a mislynch and it feels like a mislynch today.

[ooba]

Because it looks like you're asserting it as a

statement of fact

with no real backing.

The words "I think", "I feel" clarify that these are my opinions.

I don't see Ceph going "Here shoot scumbuddy A or scumbuddy B. Also, three more additional names".

I'm not suggesting PV was a bluff. PV was there so that if he was shot, Ceph's ISO looks better. Do not see him consistently recommending ace scum buddy like that.

Also, noticed that you didn't talk much about the stronger points of both scum jumping onto the wagon. In what doesn't appear to look like buses. (Again personal opinion - but this is what the game is about - look at interactions and take a call)

---

At least I'm defending the slot from interactions with scum that point to ace being town. Your push on ace amounts to nothing more than 'lurker' and 'useless' slot.

Lets use that logic. Do you have anything so far from the flipped scum that supports assertions that ace is scum?

[ooba]

On D2. Thought I'd address this:

Vezo wouldn't have claimed doc because scum-vezo would have already known Mask's role from Ceph's role

Your time stamps will differ because different time zones and all. Basically, Vezok would have most probably never had Ceph results when he made his first post of the day.

Day starts: Tue Feb 10, 2015 10:31 am
Result PM (at least my own): Few minutes after thread opened
Vezok posts: Tue Feb 10, 2015 11:25 am

Ceph: thank me later.

vote ms

It's good that you're back. Time to die.

Ceph’s first post on D2: Tue Feb 10, 2015 12:01 pm
Ceph’s activity on site: Absent between {Tue Feb 10, 2015 9:07 am} & {Tue Feb 10, 2015 11:58 am}

1)

Defense

F-16 and FT were on Ceph’s case all throughout D1. The only reason the lynch didn’t go through is because the Ceph defense squad talked them out of it.

Vezok if scum doc probably did protect Ceph from a vig. Either way, F-16 started off suspicion on Ceph yet again and Vezok defends Ceph with the 'He was the kill'.

There's also another additional reason Vezok could have chosen to do this - but I'll reveal that once I've solidified another read.

2)

Breadcrumb

You’re a doctor who just think you’ve saved Ceph from a scum kill. Why the need to breadcrumb that info “Ceph: thank me later.” in your first post of the day and reveal that you’re the doc to any scum?

---

This is unrelated but Vezok's been on EVERY SINGLE WAGON - including my own.

Spoiler:

Votecount 15

Theaceofspades (8):

AngryPidgeon

, Farside22, vezokpiraka,

Rachmarie

, mastin2, xombie,

PeregrineV

,

Cephrir

FourTrouble

(1):

The Mask

,

iHouse

vezokpiraka (1): Skybird
TiphaineDeath (1):

FourTrouble

AngryPidgeon

(1): theaceofspades

Rachmarie

(1):

Ooba

Cephrir

(1): TiphaineDeath

iHouse

(0):

beastcharizard

Not voting: ZZZX,

Solar Wind

, VysePresident,

Imperium

, TSO,

Ankamius

, Aeronaut

Votecount 20 - Farside appears twice

Theaceofspades (6):

AngryPidgeon

, vezokpiraka, xombie,

Rachmarie

, Farside22, ZZZX

FourTrouble

(3):

The Mask

, Aeronaut
TiphaineDeath (3): Mastin2, Farside22, TSO

beastcharizard

(3): Skybird,

Cephrir

,

Imperium

Cephrir

(2): TiphaineDeath,

FourTrouble

Rachmarie

(2):

Ooba

,

PeregrineV

AngryPidgeon

(1): theaceofspades,

Magua

VysePresident (1):

Solar Wind

Skybird (0):

beastcharizard

Not voting: Heartless,

Ankamius

Votecount 24

AngryPidgeon

(8): theaceofspades,

Magua

,

Imperium

,

Ooba

, Vezokpiraka,

Rachmarie

,

Ankamius

, Heartless, TSO

beastcharizard

(5):

The Mask

,

Solar Wind

,

FourTrouble

, Xombie,

Cephrir

Theaceofspades (2):

AngryPidgeon

, ZZZX

Rachmarie

(2):

PeregrineV

, Farside22

FourTrouble

(2): Aeronaut
TiphaineDeath (1): Mastin2

Cephrir

(1): TiphaineDeath
Skybird (0):

beastcharizard

Not voting: Skybird

Votecount 26

AngryPidgeon

(11): theaceofspades,

Magua

,

Ooba

, Vezokpiraka,

Rachmarie

,

Ankamius

, TSO, Skybird, Heartless,

Imperium

,

The Mask

beastcharizard

(5):

The Mask

,

Solar Wind

,

FourTrouble

, Xombie,

Cephrir

Theaceofspades (2):

AngryPidgeon

, ZZZX

Rachmarie

(2):

PeregrineV

, Farside22

FourTrouble

(2): Aeronaut

Cephrir

(1): TiphaineDeath

Imperium

(1): Mastin2
Skybird (0):

beastcharizard

Votecount 30

Metal Sonic

(7): Heartless,

The Mask

,

Cephrir

,

PeregrineV

, Skybird, TSO, TiphaineDeath
TheAceofspades (3): Xombie,

Ooba

, vezokpiraka
Mastin2 (2): theaceofspades,

FourTrouble

Ankamius

(1):

Magua

Skybird (1): Mastin2

beastcharizard

(1):

Imperium

Heartless (1): Farside22

Imperium

(1):

Solar Wind

Rachmarie

(1): Bitmap

Magua

(0.5):

beastcharizard

Not Voting:

Rachmarie

,

Ankamius

, ZZZX, TheWayItEnds,

Metal Sonic

Votecount 35

TheAceofspades (4): Xombie,

Ooba

, vezokpiraka, Farside22
Skybird (2): Mastin2,

Cephrir

Rachmarie

(2): Bitmap, Heartless

Magua

(2):

beastcharizard

,

The Mask

beastcharizard

(2):

Imperium

, Skybird

Ooba

(1):

Metal Sonic

Metal Sonic

(1): TSO
Mastin2 (1):

FourTrouble

Bitmap (1): TiphaineDeath
TSO (1):

Magua

Not Voting:

Rachmarie

,

Ankamius

, ZZZX, TheWayItEnds,

Solar Wind

, theaceofspades

Votecount 57

Mastin2 (4): TSO, Vezokpiraka,

Magua

, theaceofspades, Skybird
TSO (4):

Imperium

, Zel1nk, Farside22, ZZZX

Ankamius

(4):

Ooba

, Mastin2, Heartless,

Metal Sonic

TWIE (0): TheWayitEnds

Not Voting: Drixx,

Ankamius

,

FourTrouble

9 to lynch.

Deadline is (expired on 2015-03-31 00:00:00)

And:
Ankamius (9): Ooba, Mastin2, Heartless, Metal Sonic, VezokPiraka, Magua, Fourtrouble, Drixx, Ankamius
TSO (7): Metal Sonic, Imperium, Zel1nk, vezokpiraka, ooba, Skybird, ZZZX
Ooba (4): Espeonage, Magua, Vezok, Mastin2

He's definitely the scum on my wagon.

[ooba]

I'd like this bit explained:

Vezo:
Please explain the town read of ms to calling him scum with cephrir to voting him today.

Vezok wagon best wagon.

Now seriously. Metal sonic is town. House and TSO are town also.
I still have no idea what's up with beast.

Ceph, don't tell me you're scum with Ms.

Ceph: thank me later.

vote ms

It's good that you're back. Time to die.

I see nothing in you ISO that explains the change of reads.

Let's get to answering questions.

I had a town read on the beginning on ms because his entry was townish. After that it dwindled and I expressed that in my neighbourhood. It slowly dwindled to a major scum read.

The post related to Cephrir was nearly immediately after he replaced it and it was a slight associative tell. I wasn't scumreading cephrir just pointing out that something felt off. In the mean time Cephrir became an obv town read for me.
He also claimed a powerful role so that's why I protected him.

Also why the fuck wouldn't you think that a very strong player with a role he claimed was good isn't a possible night kill target? Do you kill lurkers as scum?

We should claim neighbourhoods. I'm tired of everyone asking around who was in a neighbourhood with whom.
BTW Bitmap is most probably Odin for anyone that didn't figure it out.

I had a town read on the beginning on ms because his entry was townish. After that it dwindled and I expressed that in my neighbourhood. It slowly dwindled to a major scum read.

how can it slowly dwindle to a major scumread if i was being kidnapped by Bitmap?


it sounds like the laziest and lamest read ever

[ooba]

I didn't talk about that read for a long time because ms wasn't in the game. Then he comes back day 2 and I start to talk to him. In the meantime I reread stuff and thought about other stuff some more and I thought MS was scum. That changed after the vig though. I'm not sure what you are asking me.

It's the same thing MS asked you: "how can it slowly dwindle to a major scumread if i was being kidnapped by Bitmap?".

How can a MS change from a mild town to a strong scum read when he wasn't even playing?

---

"

Then he comes back day 2 and I start to talk to him

. In the meantime I reread stuff and thought about other stuff some more and I thought MS was scum."
You vote MS in your first post of D2. He hadn't even posted after he was back.

[ooba]

While I'm here - may as well post other findings:

---

Ceph targetting TD with Deathbane

(Vote Removal)

Spoiler:

"By the way, why can't I target you with day abilities?"

I find this interaction between Ceph and TD very odd.

It was quite clear that Ceph has rolecopped Mask N1 - and scum really wanted to kill off the doc. (Both Ceph's 'let me prove my role' and the fact that the eventual N2 kill was Mask)

Why would he even try the Deathbane on TD since that would mean Ceph couldn't kill an extra town till N3?

---

Vezo - Pere

Spoiler:

@ms: Dayvig one of aceofspades, the mask, ank or zzzx.

At least we can get a lurker out.

Post count at this point:
Ank: 55
aceofspades: 38
The Mask: 37
ZZZX: 23

PV: 39

MS catches him on PV also lurking to which we have this:

Pere is also a lurker.


Zzzx is a good choice. But in capcom he was town.

Pere is also a lurker, but he sometimes does good stuff as town. Pere also isn't a low hanging fruit.

IDK if mask is lowhanging fruit. I've never played with him before.

I usually prefer seeing lurkers vigged, because lynching lurkers is painful.

In which case Mask shouldn’t have been on that list.

Vezok has hard defended both flipped scum at various points this game.

---

For Imperium

Spoiler:

Okay, so I have a theory on the aceofspades. Yesterday at lynch time he said that he could double vote when it looked like we might get a no vote. When I asked him if it would show up in the vote count, he didn't know. And then he said that he did activate his double vote, and if you look at the vote count he does not show up as a double voter.

So, I have two things. I think that if he were scum that his buddies would have clarified how his role worked because it's a rather powerful role for scum. And having a secret voter/double voter is great for causing confusion in the town. He said he had it ahead of time and could use it. I think if he were scum he would have just quietly sent in that double vote instead of outing it.

I mean he could have been faking not knowing how it worked but it didn't feel that way.

Anyway that's my thought on that. I got concerned that maybe he was actually the vote thief, and took the vote from magua to use. But then that also feels weird.

Am I overlooking something or insane?

[ooba]

Ooba - you're looking at that a little backwards. Cephrir said he was going to target TD with his day ability soon after replacing in.

He tried to target TD day one. Then night one, he would have been told he had no result

, which meant the bane obviously wouldn't work/he didn't know if he *could* target TD that night since it failed day one. So then he chose another target. He didn't already know the Mask was a doctor before attempting to target TD. Also, if you look at the vote counts, Cephrir obviously stole the Masks vote day two, and he was planned to be his "vig" target night one.

~~~

I don't get the votes on ooba at all.

But why would he only be informed of the bane failure only on N1 if he used it D1?

It sounds like a day ability whose effect is immediate. And Mask's vote is reduced from this VC, a good ten days before end of day.

I got that he rolecopped Mask N1 and stole vote Mask's vote D2 to kill him N2. But the quote I posted sounded like he initially tried Deathbane on TD on D2, and dram told him it failed.

If it was a D1 deathbane like you mention, why not question TD D1?

Also could ya link that post where he mentions the vote steal?

[ooba]

vote steal?

*removal of vote

[ooba]

How did you find that quote and not notice the two posts immediately afterwards where he clearly says "yesterday"

I didn't notice the 'yesterday' bit when I was reading.

[ooba]

Meanwhile...

I didn't talk about that read for a long time because ms wasn't in the game. Then he comes back day 2 and I start to talk to him. In the meantime I reread stuff and thought about other stuff some more and I thought MS was scum. That changed after the vig though. I'm not sure what you are asking me.

It's the same thing MS asked you: "how can it slowly dwindle to a major scumread if i was being kidnapped by Bitmap?".

How can a MS change from a mild town to a strong scum read when he wasn't even playing?

---

"

Then he comes back day 2 and I start to talk to him

. In the meantime I reread stuff and thought about other stuff some more and I thought MS was scum."
You vote MS in your first post of D2. He hadn't even posted after he was back.

[ooba]

Lol.

I'll say this though.

18 pages in our neighbourhood and a lot of discussion between Ceph\Heartless
- N1: Anti scum reading Ceph; TTH town reading Ceph. Anti gets into an argument with Ceph - TTH actually mollifying Ceph and saying they should work together.
- Heartless scum speculation using Neighbourhoods; Ceph argues against this
- Ceph asking for the govern after being loverized

I mean - the only audience for this sort of theatre\posting are Rach(Andy)\Me. If heartless is scum, that's damn good posting.

[ooba]

The trigger was heartless discussing Blonde\Aero as a scum read and Ceph saying he is ambivalent on the slot.
- Solar asks TWIE for his Ceph read. He mentions how TWIE accurately read Ceph in their previous game.
- Ceph here - I'm just surprised he lists so many points for scum. But town reads it for the claim. I'm also surprised he even noticed the tail end of 766.
- "I am looking for something from TWIE. I have no idea whether it is an accurate or useful meta thing, but I want to check." - Ceph (I'm only upto page 150 - but I'm betting he never follows through)

Re-read upto now didn't give me a read on TWIE (except that he's funny) but Aero was bad.

This is a much better lynch than heartless.

Vote: TWIE

[ooba]

Although Blonde did say "Oh and if it becomes necessary, I can prove I'm town."?

TWIE?

[ooba]

Ooba, do you think TSO is still scum, y/n?

I hate those claim shenanigans but re-read leaning slight town.

[ooba]

Someday, this hydra will not be known as "Anti."

That day might be a while from now.

TTH, what are your thoughts right now?

[ooba]

No sense in having the obv. town slot claim.

And before you say 'Oh. I saw hadfasgahda pull it vigging scum partner in one game', FT's day one posts are town all the way. He's not going to start the game with a lynch wish on the partner that can kill every other day.

[ooba]

Again, it's "claim actions", not "claim your deepest, darkest secrets"

Not necessary.

FT's slot keeping their actions to themselves may catch scum in a fake claim later down the road. There's no purpose to doing this now.

[ooba]

FourTrouble full-claimed D2 when it looked like he was about to be lynched, so worst-case scenario, the slot verifies its actions. There's literally no harm even if you think it's "not necessary".

Have you finished whatever analysis you were doing on previous days, by the way?

Townies keeping something back etc. etc. There's literally no gain even if you think there's no harm.

I lost steam around page 150 and didn't have the motivation to continue.

[ooba]

Here are my thoughts:

Town:

14. FourTrouble: The vig + D1 play is very town

2. Metal Sonic: Definitely not scum - he was clearly thinking of shooting Ceph on D2 before Pere.

3. Mastin2 Dcane: Had problems with both his claim and his target of choice. My primary motivation behind re-reading D1 was slotting mastin. While scum hunting\effort seems miles apart from what I expected the 'mastin' brand to deliver - he has the role he says he has. The early crumbs - the confidence behind that is town. I also think that N1 kill might be targeted towards this slot.

21. Magua iHouse (House and Eyestott), House: Aside from the dtown cop clear - his play is fine and I'd say reads\thought process are also fine. Irritating though.

16. Imperium (Tammy and Nacho): Town2. But sad that they're barely here.

24. Drixx Xombie
10. ZZZX
- I haven't even looked at these in depth because i'm willing to give them a pass due to claim. I actually think they may be 3-way masons.

Mild

25. Heartless (TellTaleHeart and Antihero) VysePresident: I've already covered them in my last post. Nowhere as strong as above - but certainly not the best lynch.

8. Zel1nk TiphaineDeath: I'm grateful for the inbox-dont-shoot thing - but I also remember Ceph saying 'Zel is confirmed town if ooba is town. D1 predecessor play looked like scum. On the other hand, it looked like Ceph used the death bane on this slot. But why would he even claim this? Lots of paranoia here. But certainly not lynch worthy since we lose a lot if he's town.

5. Otolia Theaceofspade: When heartless used the power of his, I thought 'If heartless is scum, who could be scum with heartless?'. This slot popped up because of heartless's stance on Ace plus Otolia's 'I know why i'm on the wagon - but why are you all voting?'. But I went to the earlier ace wagons, and spotted Ceph\Pere there and those are not buses.

12. mnemonicdevice Farside22 - Farside's posting was very town - but mnemonic has barely been here.

Light

20. T S O - A very mild D1 town read. Definitely not scum with TWIE. He should have also outright claimed before FT used his power on this slot. (not just the warnings)

4. Skybird BRantz - D1 posting. But today's posting and the hop on the heartless wagon make me pause.

Scum

7. TheWayItEnds Aeronaut, -Blonde-: I'm not sure I believe Blonde meant 'Treestamp' as 'He can prove he is town'. Plus interactions.

22. vezokpiraka - if we associate animals with scum, vezo would be a ostrictch. Doesn't respond to cases (D2,today). But gets a pass because of stupid reasons.

23. Espeonage Bitmap - Useless questions, barely any scumhutning.

[ooba]

For those of you who have a vote today, what are your thoughts on the action Heartless took?

I initially thought it could have come from either alignment. (65% of the times scum, 35% town - or something like that)

What I don't like is the fact that the slot is not here now.

Given that my own re-read was also partially borne out of 'If I find the scum and lynch them over me, I'd be cleared' too - I just don't see any real effort in trying to determine alignments.

I'm hoping it's in the pipeline.

[ooba]

Mobile posting - had a quick thought regarding the action.

Isn't this the same action that heartless said they'll use on the AP lynch? Its quite powerful closer to LyLo if you can get yourself wagoned and your partners make sure to stay away from it.

Do you really think scum would have even offered\disclosed D1?

[ooba]

But the way you just phrased this is now making me consider if you and +1 from my neighborhood is scum.

What about the phrasing?

You made it obvious it was a tree stump.

Also - I went through every Chinese character's ultimate. None of them even remotely match a tree stump. Ao Kuang turning into a dragon is probably the closest - but don't see even that.

---

Ooba is willing to clear Heartless because he claimed having this ability at the beginning of the game, while Espeonage is in his scumlist despite claiming and using his ability since the beginning of the game, and vezok who claimed his ability as of D2.

It's that sort of disconnect that rubs me the wrong way -- he's applying one method of thinking to Heartless and then another to people he's reading as scum, makes me think his reason for townreading Heartless or his reason for scumreading Espeonage/vezok is different than he says.

It's not that he just claimed it at the beginning - its because of what ability he claimed at the beginning of the game.

You're comparing a very useful lynch based power vs a doc who claimed a protect. If I was scum with heartless's power - I would have never mentioned it - even invented a couple of fake claims.

I noted Bitmap's power usage being genuine in my D1 catchup - but Esp. is literally taking no stances. 'Let's wagon someone else' - random jump on me. 'Roles were assigned before alignments' is a easy topic to remain active while not taking stances.

Also I didn't say clear - I'm saying it's worth discussing.

There is literally no scum motivation for me to do what I'm doing. I'm going against the thread on both heartless and Vezok. A town heartless flip would only bring in more suspicion on my slot than town cred.

[ooba]

Although Blonde did say "Oh and if it becomes necessary, I can prove I'm town."?

TWIE?

You're right.

It was so obvious.

Why quote this? I didn't know you were ts at this point.

I made the connection to tree stump when you requoted the older posts of yours. -> "The reason that Blonde said that, is because at some point in this game I will be confirmed town. I just dont really have that much control over when that happens."

Which part is unbelievable about 8806?
1) The fact that I guessed Tree stump?
2) The fact that I didn't believe it?

[ooba]

Why quote this? I didn't know you were ts at this point.

I made the connection to tree stump when you requoted the older posts of yours. -> "The reason that Blonde said that, is because at some point in this game I will be confirmed town. I just dont really have that much control over when that happens."

Which part is unbelievable about 8806?
1) The fact that I guessed Tree stump?
2) The fact that I didn't believe it?

Yeah, I dont believe that you missed all my crumbs, looked at a post where I said that I cant control when I become confirmed town, and without a doubt conclude that I'm a treestump.

Especially in a role madness game.

I did miss your crumbs since I hadn't gotten to them in my re-read. I might have caught it then. It's what I do in role madness games. Make an educated guess.

ooba, I loved the setup speculation. Mainly because it was entertaining- at one point in D4 you started with a "Anubis, Egyptian God of Cemeteries and Embalming" and I was like "HOW THE HELL DID HE KNOW THAT?". <_<

Here's a quote from one of my favourite games.

---

The 'You got the tree stump from one of my hood mates' is so bad. If I had inside information on one of the other roles, best thing to do is just keep it to myself.

But you need a reason to jump onto my wagon I guess.

---

Why did you feel the need to crumb so many times?

[ooba]

Here's hoping I'm wrong.

Unvote. Vote: Heartless

[ooba]

VOTE: Heartless

More to the point for me is that the scum kill is missing N1 and N3. The only plausible possibility that's been presented for the N1 missing kill is TiphaineDeath roleblocking mastin; the plausible possibilities for N3 are vezok stopping the kill, Zelink stopping the kill, or the scum shooting TSO. The third is lolnope, so I utterly have to believe that at least one of (vezok, Zelink) is town, and I've got a stronger townread on Zelink. vezok I do have a townread, but while he lives the cop lives (and vice versa).

You've missed out the following possibilities:

N1: TD was stopped by brambles; TD could have been the killer

Also Imperium has some sort of blocking element - so that possibility arises on both nights that kill was affected by them.

[ooba]

Okay oh reluctant ones. This is a simple exercise.

Either Heartless is scum or he isn't. I read heartless as scum because of the

way

the ability was used and what it has done to the game. I ask myself who benefits from the game stagnating and nobody doing any real scumhunting? Easy answer.

On the off chance that Heartless

isn't

scum, he still has to go because of the reality that we will always be questioning him over what he did today. If he makes it into a hypothetical end game, he's mislynch bait. I don't see how I would vote anyone else left in the game right now over him if we got down to a spot where MYLO/LYLO was a concern ... so that means that rationally I should vote him right now ... which I have, I think. But just in case...

VOTE: Heartless

You were already voting Heartless

[ooba]

Thus that last line where I say I think I already am voting heartless, but just to be sure. It can't hurt right?

There's such a thing as making a point too ... which apparently sailed over your head mate.

And today we learn that I skim too fast.

[ooba]

^That was me by the way.

I resurrected Imperium.

[ooba]

We should wait for mastin's result\epic reveal.

[ooba]

So.
I went into night knowing my investigation was 90% likely to be worthless.
Today makes it 100%.

Yesterday, I had bees on Imperium, soyeah.

Lol. This is funny.