But I am innocent.In post 4, I Am Innocent wrote:Might as well point out the Black and Void are both scary, just like Mafia...
vote BlackVoid
Mini Normal 1843 - Endgame
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By your theory, not voting at all is just as bad. Any reason you didn't comment on my and TwoFace's lack of vote?In post 11, MichelSableheart wrote:I firmly believe that voting someone over a (very) weak scumtell is better then voting someone completely randomly.-
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@Rask, what's there to like about GM's comments on BBT? If you are talking about post #8, there's nothing in there that's an alignment marker. Just looks like an early vote on someone they played with before and hoping that he is town which is something I could see from either alignment.
VOTE: Raskolnikov
This entire post gives me bad vibes:
Too many qualifiers. You undermine pretty much all the points you are making.In post 36, Raskolnikov wrote:I actually like what GM said about BBTAlso him saying the game was annoying I think mirrors how I felt about people arguing over the dice,unless it's a super catered pocketing attempt.although that's an assumption.
I'm wondering what the likelihood is micheal would issue that PSA #1 as scum, I think very low.The only issue is the chance he thought of it from pre-game and planned to say it regardless of role pm, instead of just now (makes sense given the circumstances).
No scumleads yet though.-
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Slightly. The way the wagon formed in a flash and dismantled just as fast piques me and I haven't figured out what it means yet.In post 140, Hoopla wrote:Are you still suspicious of Rask?
I'm skeptical of the townreads on him. Rask's response to the wagon was a bit too textbook-ey for my taste. The *okay, a wagon formed on me, now to dissect all the votes on it* reaction looked like it was deliberate and prepared. If he thought you were scummy, he could have just pushed you without analyzing each vote on there including the neutral reads on Sotty7 and TwoFace. It came across like he was trying too hard to present himself as a good townie doing the right thing by "analyzing the wagon."
His actual case on you doesn't make sense to me. He says that you voted him based off of associatives with goodmorning. I re-read your posts and still can't find where you tried to tie Rask to GM so I don't know where that's coming from.
Rask, BBT, and Jaack are all working under the assumption that there is scum on the wagon that needs to be narrowed down. I actually agree with your previous post that there is just as much chance of there being scum off the wagon than on it so I don't get the pseudo-process-of-elimination. I'd prefer actual POE on the whole playerlist when the time comes.
BBT is another player I suspect. He is way too confident in Rask-town while barely even reading his posts. For example, BBT asked Rask who is scum on his wagonafterRask had already taken stances on every player on the wagon and singled out you (Hoopla) as the scummiest. The rest of Rask's posts have been a back-and-forth push on you. So, if BBT isn't even reading closely enough to know who Rask's suspicion's are, where's this super-confident townread coming from?
I don't have a read on MariaR yet. She along with Jaack, and Michel seem to be reading Rask's reaction to the wagon as town. On a cursory level I understand why but it's going to take more for me to nail down a read there one way or another.-
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VOTE: BlueBloodedToffee
Feel better with my vote here. I think he's more likely to be scum than Rask for the reasons I gave earlier.
I get the logic there but I think it depends on the context. I can see scum jumping on an early partner-wagon to let it fall apart through paranoia. I can also see scum resisting early an town wagon for the opposite reason.In post 151, Hoopla wrote:It's not so much process-of-elimination. Just an observation from my experience that early large wagons often tend to be town.
What do you think about the fact that the Rask-wagon dismantled so easily? Also, do you have a read on BBT?-
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Hey now, I gotta show off or else I'll have a hard time pocketing all the townies!In post 154, goodmorning wrote:BV you are trying too hard i think;-
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Neither. I feel it's productive to talk about what I'm thinking and push the game forward. Are you against analyzing wagons in general, or do you just feel mine wasn't useful?In post 185, goodmorning wrote:What I mean is, does it look like you're trying hard because you're a tryhard or because you're scum who's having a slightly more difficult time of it than they expected? (Obviously this is a rhetorical question.)
I'm going to stick with BBT. Why Victor over him?-
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@Sotty7, looking back, there are a few things I had trouble following from your wallpost. Clarify them for me when you get a chance:
This reads to like you are saying that Rask's case on Hoopla is weak because Hoopla is an extremely strong town player. Unless you meant to write something and forgot, that doesn't really make sense. Can you rephrase?In post 119, Sotty7 wrote:I don't want to step on Hoopla's toes because gambits are the name of her game. I find her generally hard to get a read on in the early game so I tend to sort her town and let her out herself as scum as the game draws on. It helps that I value her as an extremely strong town player and would really like to tag team on this game if she is indeed town. Because of this I found Rask's initial case and vote on Hoopla weak, but most of it could be down to a lack of experience with her which could be understandable. However, Rask's vote remains despite Hoopla's reasonable responses to his points.
In this scenario, are you arguing that Rask is BBT's partner or town that a scum-BBT hopped on to?In post 119, Sotty7 wrote:I like BBT more for scum at this point. He came in with a vote on Rask to start a wagon, there were already two other players with two votes at the time Blackvoid and gm. It seems to be an attempt to sort Rask which comes quick and with no further elaboration. I would have expected more considering the history they both speak to. Feels like he started the wagon then panicked a little when it took off. I also remember BBTScum being very no nonsense cutting to the heart of the matter, were as townBBT being more open.
Unvote, Vote: BBT-
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It's more that he sincerely believes he's in the right. I don't see what he has to gain as scum by manufacturing an accusation on you out of thin air, and then insisting that he's absolutely right to the point where he thinks two-face is scum for misrepresenting him. The BBT vote at the time was a plus too.-
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He didn't explicitly say that. I'm talking about how he was insisting that your 201 doesn't make sense and how he was incredulous that your interpretation was different than his.
Scum have to act like they believe what they are saying. My point is that it doesn't look like an act to me.-
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The exchange between Hoopla and Victor has me leaning town on Hoopla. I don't see the point in continuing to argue with TwoFace about Victor since it doesn't look like either of us are convincing the other. I'll come back to this if it becomes relevant after the game day advances and we have more information to go off of. For now, I'm going to focus elsewhere.
@Sotty7, I agree with you that Rask is town now and BBT might be scum. But I'm more interested in what you were thinking at that time so I can gaugeyouralignment. You said BBT pushed an early wagon and panicked. I want to know what your gut reaction was then. Whether you thought he was calling off a bus or got worried about being implicated in a quick mislynch. Perhaps it's playstyle but I find it hard to have scumreads be completely independent of anything else especially when they are based off of how two people interacted with each other.
Rask's first and third questions in the above post are good, I want to see them elaborated on as well.
I also want to discuss your read on TwoFace. He seems very town to me. Being so sure in his scumread of Victor that it blows his mind that I disagree with him is indicative of someone who truly believes their read. I don't think the lack of voting is indicative of much if his coin-flip gimmick is something he does across games. You were leading the BBT-wagon. Why switch over from BBT before he has a chance to react?-
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I'm going to post this in pieces so it is not an insanely long wall.In post 321, MichelSableheart wrote:@BlackVoid: if you could expand a bit on the townreads you listed in post #278, that would be great. Most of them are on players I currently have trouble reading, so knowing your thoughts there would be helpful to me.
I talked about Victor last night. TwoFace is town for similar reasons as Victor i.e believing in his push. Since then, his later posting cemented that read. I have a hard time seeing scum reacting to my Victor townread by essentially going "how can youpossiblytownread him? Mind blown!" I think that's the best I can explain it.-
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There are about three reasons I'm reading GM as town.
Firstly, the way she's pushing BBT based on past games (along the lines of "I know you and you are better than this") came across as town. Scum tend to townread their "friends" because they'd be expected to know how to read them and it's easier to just correctly call them town.
Secondly, I like her point regarding Jaack. Jaack started off with "ifthere's scum on the Rask wagon" and then just assumed it to be true. I felt the POE from Jaack was premature.
Thirdly, from the back-and-forth with Victor, I agree with and understand GM's argument and I think her passion on pushing Victor is genuine. From more recent posts, the angry outbursts and swearing would be way over the top and unnecessary as scum. I think that's town that's genuinely mad that Victor isn't explaining himself.-
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I was thinking Rask could be scum until he posted 209. Initially I agreed with Sotty7's BBT vote but not her reasons. The way Rask broke it down makes a ton of sense and is exactly the scenario I'm concerned about. I feel that BBT townread Rask simply because he thought he was expected to read him as town based on past experience. My BBT scumread is sort of like the inverse of my GoodMorning townread (he's townreading his friend Rask way too quickly). Rask's post also made me go back and re-read Sotty7's posting more closely. I tend to find that people who give compelling enough reasons to make me rethink reads are usually town.-
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My reasoning for Cloud is a bit counter-intuitive. It is based on him insisting that his "townslip" made him not scum with IAI. When scum fake a townslip, they plan it out and the action is deliberate. I think someone who would go around planting fake townslips would also be suave enough to let the townfindthese townslips on their own for maximum cred. On the other hand, I can easily see town thinking they townslipped and having a "hey guys, look I townslipped, haha" reaction.-
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Yeah, it's important. It's definitely possible for scum to push people they've played with before if the circumstances warrant it or if they are just omgus'ing.
But a push right at the beginning when there were so many other options wouldn't be a good idea - unless you are an extraordinarily ballsy scum player. That's what I was trying to figure out.-
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Greatest Player of all time thread. Yeah, I saw that too. I almost think if Sotty7 were goat-level scum, I'd be reading her as town.
@Sotty7, what would you say is your biggest strength and weakness as scum?-
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@BBT, was your early Rask townread a genuine one or were you testing for reactions? Upon re-reading, you criticize at least two of his posts and question MariaR's read there. Where didyourtownread on Rask come from?
You accuse MariaR of buddying Sotty7 as well as fence-sitting on her, both of which imply that Sotty7 is town. How are you okay with either one for a lynch? I know you are voting MariaR but you did say you'd be happy to lynch either.
As an aside, I completely agree with MariaR that while the first part of Sotty7's 119 looked like BS, I also thought Sotty7's vote on you in that same post was good. I don't find it scummy.
Read through the latest posts (I agree with Rask). BBT's and Sotty's interactions don't make much sense especially how BBT is accusing one of his scumreads of buddying the other which lets him push MariaR while having Sotty7 as a secondary suspect. But if he's SO confident on MariaR as he's claiming to be, he shouldn't be having Sotty7 as a scumread at all.-
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I have an out-there theory to top your out-there theory. BBT, Sotty7, and MariaR are all scum. BBT pushing MariaR so he can clear both himself and Sotty7 upon her lynch (she was "buddying" Sotty7) and coast the rest of the game, while also sewing in distancing interactions with Sotty7 in case she gets lynched first. It's out-there but I have a fairly narrow pool of suspects given my six townreads and all three of them are in it.In post 437, Raskolnikov wrote:Again, aware this is a wild really out-there theory but thinking of such things is just far more exciting than taking it slow.
I do think Jaack has a decent chance of being scum though. He's flown below the radar a lot.-
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Yeah, I think I should have waited for them to dig into their stances a bit more but what's done is done.In post 461, Raskolnikov wrote:@BV Lol, I actually thought about that but it was starting to go too far for even me. I kind of wish you didn't mention that actually.
Sotty7 wagon seems a lot more viable than BBT at this point.
VOTE: Sotty7
To be clear, I actually think it's likely BBT and Sotty7 are partners. The MariaR theory was me just brainstorming although I wouldn't necessarily rule it out.
@MariaR, your vote on BBT ("I'll unvote after you do this specific thing") was very odd. Is this explicit stating that the vote is for pressure normal for you?-
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I do think that BBT's argument that MariaR showed up to complain about the Rask wagon while not commenting on anything else was a valid one. But I didn't like his accusation that MariaR was fencesitting on Sotty7 because I had the exact same reaction as MariaR did to Sotty7's post.In post 467, Raskolnikov wrote:@BV The thing is, looking at just the facts, BBT's push on maria is still reasonable. Maria's response isn't usual if you compare to most players but not really out of line with her usual omgusy/reactive style.
It's at this point still possible one of my townreads will do something to make me reconsider them, cloud I'm fading a bit on and furthermore IAI isn't even ingame.
I'm still not entirely sure BBT is scum even if sotty is. Problem is that individually, if you throw out associations he's more null than a scumread to me.
Besides that, he made two separate accusations: He accused MariaR of fencesitting on Sotty7 in the event a wagon takes off. This implies that Sotty7 is town and MariaR is looking to opportunistically join that wagon. He also accused MariaR of trying to "sync" her reads with Sotty7 which is a buddying accusation which also only makes sense with Sotty7-town.
While I can buy that some people have reads independent of everything else, the bulk of BBT's MariaR suspicion seems to be based on how she played around Sotty7. So, it's unbelievable for me that he's happy to lynch either one. Do you think BBT's reads seem consistent?
Oh, and I also thought one stray comment from MariaR about Rask-wagon isn't something that would make BBT so confident that she's scum that he's deadset on her lynch.-
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You have more votes on you so more viable. If BBT is more viable, I'll move there. You two are tied as my top two scumreads.In post 469, Sotty7 wrote:How is my wagon more viable? I still can't believe we're trying to call partners day one with no flips. I don't get it. Is bussing still that rampant on the site?
I haven't been on the site very long so I can't speak to how rampant it was before. But I recently completed a large theme game (Dragon Age Mafia) where I replaced in as confirmed town in 3-player lylo. The entire scumteam bussed the hell out of each other. I correctly called them out on hard-bussing and voted the last scum, Vedith.
I have a hard time getting into the mindset of people who develop reads in a vacuum. I'll have to check if this is normal for you. Reads are dependent on one another. This is proven when you say MariaR is townpurelybecause BBT is pushing her. So, you ARE using your existing reads to develop associations. I don't know why you have an issue with me doing that.-
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Okay then, help me out here. What's the bulk of your MariaR read based on?In post 472, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:Black, you're misunderstanding the bulk of my Maria scum read.-
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Hoopla, when you get a chance, explain why Michel is such a strong townread for you. I've also seen his posting be a voice of reason but as far as alignment is concerned, he's null to me. The only thing you mentioned was the PSA-style declaration which you said you've only seen in his towngames. Do you have an opinion of his later posting?-
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@Jaack, how was I "parroting" what someone else said in my 323? I don't recall anyone making those points about GM. If they have, go ahead and quote them for me.
I agree that 456 was me agreeing with Rask about Sotty and BBT being scum, potentially together. But if agreeing with someone else is scummy to you, how didn't it affect your read on Hoopla when she said she noticed the same thing I did? Also, I had suspicions of both BBT and Sotty7 much before Rask brought up his theory so I'm not understanding how you interpreted that as parroting Rask.
Why is BBT town?-
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Okay. Another thing I wondered about your list: you mention me as being competent enough to fake things convincingly. What are you basing this off of?
In the game you linked of Michel's, he won a four-player endgame with players that were actually competently analyzing the game and was a fairly universal townread. That shows he's competent at playing scum. If you have "tinges of paranoia" about me, what makes you confident enough about Michel where you think he can't fake his level of play?-
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@Sotty7, while you are here, can you talk about your read on Hoopla? When there was a wagon developing on you, you said that she was starting to fall back into null/scum. That came out of the blue. What prompted that? You also didn't seem to show any interest in trying to read her earlier. When she voted you, it was just sadness. Can you go over your entire progression of your read there, where it started, how it changed and what your read is now, and talk about what specific posts caused these changes?-
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Okay. Can you also go over your reads on GM and Jaack? I have a few thoughts on them but want to see what you thought before saying. Specifically, regarding GM's interaction with BBT, and Jaack's initial vote on you.In post 559, Sotty7 wrote:My progression was what has hoopla done lately. I said in my post 471 that I felt like she was treading water. She did her gambit, she got her reactions but nothing really came of it. She went back and forth with victor that didn't yeild much then switched to me. I think it was rask who asked her if she was going to pressure me but nothing really came from it execpt when she said she wasn't joking with her vote. She was engaging with me but on a very light scale. That's why I poked and downgraded my read-
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@GM, upon re-read, there are a ton of things about you that caught my attention which I missed the first time around that I want to discuss. Your read on BBT is a little weird in retrospect. You say you expect better from him as early as page five. Then, you say that BBT was at least better than Victor for spending time on his Rask read. But all BBT had done up till that point was pressure Rask, back off and call him town for no reason. I can't see how he was better than Victor here especially since you seem to expect more from him.
Then there's your take on the competing wagons of BBT and Sotty7. You spent the early game throwing suspicion at BBT but he always takes a backseat for you, first behind Victor, now behind Sotty7. I dislike everything about your 528. You quote posts of BBT where he says he needs time to invest in the game and call it an okay answer. If someone is inactive, it already means that they don't have time for the game. BBT showing up and saying that is a very mundane answer and I don't understand what you found okay about it. You even go so far as to tell Victor to "leave off Toffee" which makes zero sense given Toffee is a scumread for you.
Why do you even suspect Sotty7 anyways? I don't think you've given any reason for it. Given BBT is explicitly a scumread for you, I find your preference of the Sotty7 wagon highly suspect.
I also have a hard time understanding your townread on me. You call me town early but then cast suspicion on me for "trying too hard." You make a few vague accusations that you don't fully explain. Can you tell me what you meant in 161 and 224? After that, I call you town and then there's no mention at all about my previous "tryharding," you just townread me back. It looks like you think you can pocket me because I was townreading you and there's no progression there that makes sense from a town POV. I found it odd that you refute my townread on you despite reading me as town. Your other reads (like on TwoFace for not getting a joke) also feel really weak.
At this point, I don't feel comfortable at all with the Sotty7 wagon although I want Sotty7's answers to my questions anyways. I think it was useful for providing information and stances. I'm going to hop off and
VOTE: goodmorning-
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Regarding Jaack, yeah I felt he was a bit too comfortable with voteparking your wagon based off of the "IF there's one scum on the Rask wagon, it's Sotty7" theory which isn't even necessarily true and he hasn't re-assessed or commented on your posts since then.
Regarding GM, sure give me more details when you get a chance. I don't disagree that her posts had substance but her stances with regard to you/BBT and Victor/BBT seem scummy to me.
Who do you think are BBT's most likely partners?-
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My current guess for the scumteam is goodmorning, BBT, and Jaack.
I saw Michel's reasoning earlier that BBT and Jaack wouldn't launch a co-ordinated attack on Sotty7 so early on. But BBT followed Jaack onto Sotty7 which is important. If he is a ballsy scum player like Rask mentioned, I can totally see him agreeing with his partner and following him just for the wifom value.-
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@GM, I still find your read on Sotty7 weak. Lynching active players for the associatives is cop-out reasoning. Active players are more useful later on. I also initially disliked Sotty7's reaction to TwoFace but her thoughtfulness in trying to see if she was tunneling rang town. Besides, I took at a glance at Team Mafia scumgame she referred to and her activity level here is around triple that. Furthermore, if you know BBT has slow starts, why would you scumread him so early in the game? Given you dislike both my and Sotty7's pushes on BBT, what wasyourreasoning for scumreading him?
With that said, it looks like BBT is play for today. Hopefully we can L-1 a wagon and get a claim to assess before getting too close to the deadline. Victor, MariaR, you should join me.
VOTE: BlueBloodedToffee-
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Yeah, I think vigging IAI is a pretty horrible idea. If he's been busy irl and hasn't posted till now, it makes sense that once he posts more, we should be able to get a read on him. So far, his two scumreads match nicely with mine which is enough to give a slight townlean. If anyone should be vigged for low contribution, it should be Jaack.
Not impressed with GreyICE's posting at all. Don't like the Victor scumread or the call to vig IAI. Both seem like easy targets given Victor got pressure early on and IAI never posted. I have a stronger scumread on GreyICE than Jaack, and he's also a bigger wagon so I don't see any reason to dismantle it to go after Jaack. I'm keeping my vote here.-
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I don't mind getting him to post more content. But asking for content is a whole lot different than suggesting that he be vigged. I think he is spot on with his suspicion of GreyICE and possibly Jaack. He said he's been legitimately busy irl which is different from calculated lurking. Now that he's here and posts, both his scumreads align with mine. Why exactly should we vig him when there's an expectation that he'll contribute more?-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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@Hoopla, I don't see GreyICE or Jaack as "easy targets." I'm reading them as scum. From a recent game that just completed (Biker Wars), I think GreyICE is loud, vocal, and capable. I don't think scum would want to bus him because he'd be the one in it for the long haul.
GreyICE's posting hasn't given me townvibes. He townreads every strong player in the game and then talks about how he's missing things. In Biker Wars, he mentioned that he liked pushing strong players who are flaky because he knows he's slated for death early on. In the Team Mafia game I had glanced through earlier, GreyICE caught Sotty7 very early in the game and strongarmed a push on her. Here, he attacks Victor who is town, suggests a vig (or lynch) on IAI, muses about how he's probably townreading a strong player (Michel) and does nothing about it. Michel has been pretty inactive. If GreyICE truly suspected that something was up, he'd be pushing him for reactions trying to get a read and see what shakes out. I don't see any of it.
When IAI has the same scumreads as me, I'm more inclined to believe IAI is town and "gets it" than that he's scum, and my entire view of the game is flawed. That I should chuck it out and start anew because a guy who was too busy to post during the first week of the game has now caught up and agreed with me.-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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They would only be "easy targets" if they aretown. But I'm not reading either as town.
I think IAI has caught up given he gave us his reads. I also think different people have different playstyles and not everyone is going to make a list of reads detailing their thoughts. Of the reads he did give us, I agree with them. I'm fine with waiting a while to let him engage in the game real time, take stances, interact with people and contribute. That's different from throwing him around as a vig target.-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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I haven't dismissed you. I think if you are town, it's good for town. If you are scum, it's good for scum. I'm reading your slot as scum.In post 686, GreyICE wrote:Interesting that you read Biker Wars, and yet are willing to dismiss me so lightly.
I'm happy to discuss your reads although it's going to take a lot to change my mind here. Your read on goodmorning is the one I'm most curious about. I have her as likely scum with your slot based on interactions with BBT.-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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He's already scumreading Jaack which just leaves himself. Maybe add in a dash of goodmorning, a sprinkle of MariaR, and a slice of Rask and we're good to go!In post 692, Hoopla wrote:Grey, you should start scumreading yourself and Jack. I think it might change BlackVoid's mind.-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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@Grey, I think GM's point on Jaack was a good one but that was an exception. It was one of the reasons I was townreading her for earlier. But her reads on BBT and Sotty7 are shifty regardless of your alignment. She started out scumreading BBT, then was okay with a completely boring answer from BBT and then said she prefers the Sotty7 wagon. Detailed version is in 565. By the way, have you caught up? I thought if you were caught up enough to have reads on the entire playerlist, you'd notice my wall on GM.
Victor is explained in 281 and 284. Your case assumes that every town that gets townread uses that to "smash home wagons on scum" which is playstyle-dependent, not alignment. I fully agree with him that IAI shouldn't be vigged. IAI literally mentioned that he had business in NYC, etc during the first week of the game. Interpreting that to mean "lurker" is uncharitable unless you think he's lying about it. Now that he's here and caught up, I assume he'll get engaged and people can get an actual read on him. That's very different from the idea of shooting "useless lurkers."-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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So, the more I think about this, GM is probably town. I do like her points on Jaack and I think the emotional push on Victor looked townish which means my scumteam theory is probably wrong. There was also something about the way Jaack was grilling MariaR that gave me townvibes.
Making a note to myself to look at Grey/Rask/Hoopla interactions. All of them are weird and there might be something there. The Rask/Hoopla early game cases on each other + Rask voting Sotty7 after he called her scum with BBT and then defending GreyICE + Hoopla's unvote of an L-1 wagon with intent to hammer. There's something there and I need to figure out if that's the team. That's my new working theory.-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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@Hoopla, I've been thinking about this game during the downtime and am going back and forth on you. I'd love it if you can help me understand your recent play.
As far as I can tell, you are townreading Michel, and Sotty7, maybe me and Victor. You are scumreading GM, TwoFace, and Jaack. Sotty7 has been consistently pushed as a counterwagon to the BBT-slot by your scumreads. So, how are you saying that the BBT/GreyICE wagon is going through without resistance when all your scumreads are either on the Sotty7 counterwagon or said that they would join it?
You also said having time to assess a claim is good. But to get claims, you need to put someone at L-1 with intent to hammer. If you unvote because you are afraid of a hammer, you won't get claims so I found that counterproductive because you'd be delaying a claim from someone that the majority including you agreed was a good wagon.-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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I'm coming around to a townread on Jaack after a close re-read of his ISO so I'll try and explain where I'm coming from. I can only remember two main reasons he's being suspected. For playing under the radar, and for not engaging Sotty7 while he has a vote on her.
I took a glance through the four completed town games on his wiki. When he's town, he posts at roughly 20-25 posts a week. His posting rate here isn't unusual for him and fits right in with the level of activity we can expect from him. So, that's null.
Now, for his Sotty7 vote. I found that Jaack in general doesn't actively spend a lot of time and effort pushing his scumreads. He's content leaving his vote in what he thinks is a good place and just responding to questions if they ask him any. So, that's null too.
Others are welcome to glance through his nicely updated wiki to prove me wrong.
As for why I'm townreading him, he gives me the impression that he's putting scumhunting over his own survival and isn't afraid to draw attention to himself.
All these quotes show me that he doesn't mind drawing attention to himself and risking being voted. Not only that, he's been steadfastly townreading his other counterwagon GreyICE even after a Sotty7 lynch became more and more unlikely.
Finally, I'm not comfortable with the inevitability of a Jaack lynch. Regardless of alignment, Sotty7 and GreyICE have people strongly townreading them or refusing to lynch them. Jaack doesn't have that. He's been fairly low-key, and no one has been willing to bat for him particularly hard. So when deadline comes, people from both camps will likely "compromise" on him when they can't get their first choice lynch. I think he's town and I want to open up that discussion before it's too late.-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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I'm not sure what are asking. Can you rephrase this?In post 827, Sotty7 wrote:What do you think about his back and forth with Maria when she has her vote on him asking her why she didn't "engage him"?
In other news, I was hoping to get your take on Rask since we see eye to eye on GreyICE/BBT. I think he's the most likely partner. Can you also explain your townread on MariaR?
I'm also curious whether you think I'm missing something so commenting on my reads as a whole would be nice, especially the null reads. I think the third partner to GreyICE and Rask is in there. I just can't figure out who yet.
Reads
Town: Victor, IAI, Sotty7, TwoFace, goodmorning, Jaack, Cloud
Null: Hoopla, MariaR, Michel's slot
Scum: GreyICE, Rask-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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@GreyICE, okay let's talk. I'm assuming you are town. From my previous list, I'm still townreading Victor, IAI, TwoFace, goodmorning, Jaack, and Cloud. I need to think on Sotty7 a little but probably town. I think MariaR is unlikely to be partnered with Hoopla so conditionally town.
That leaves Hoopla, Rask, and MichelSableheart's slot who I think is the scumteam if you are town. Is there a reason you have Rask as such strong town? Quite frankly, I don't think a passing comment from Rask about him changing his playstyle is a towntell. All he said was "Disclaimer, I'm on a loss streak and I'm going to be changing my style here a bit." That's nowhere near as big as you are saying it is and is probably something he planned to do no matter what alignment he drew.
As for why I suspect him (this also answers MariaR's question): I think a lot of his early play feels contrived. After the wagon formed on him, he went through each vote dissecting them when it was basically a semi-RVS wagon. So early in the game, it didn't make sense to go through each vote as opposed to just pushing whoever he thought was scum. It looked like he was trying to do the towny thing and "analyze" the votes on him.
I know you start skimming once you townread someone but I really think Rask's early posts are worth a close read. Look at his Hoopla push in 70. It's entirely nonsensical. Hoopla never justified a vote on him based on associatives. I think he's overselling his Hoopla scumread. 92 is a bit of a stretch. "Am I in the twilight zone" looked fake in context. His complaints about Hoopla's playstyle also seem overdone.
I think Sotty7 is right that once Rask got townread, he faded out, not to mention he seemed to completely forget his scumread on Hoopla which suddenly resurfaced.
What does he do now? He white-knighted you over the past couple of days. But when your wagon stalled at a critical point and it didn't look like it would go through without his support, he floats paranoia about how good you are and how he could be wrong. He is setting up to vote you closer to deadline while giving lip-service to Hoopla to appease you. But his vote ultimately falls on Victor who I'm reading as town. So, what am I missing? By the way, I think you are tunneling a bit on Victor and IAI. If they are town, who's scum?-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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IAI has pinned all his credibility on GreyICE flipping scum. He's putting all his eggs in one basket and going for broke. The only reason scum would do such a thing either late-game for a crucial mislynch, or if they are backed into a corner in a 1v1. Neither is the case here. If he were scum, there are other options like Victor, Sotty7, and Jaack. They can't all be scum with him. When he started posting, he had a clean slate and could push pretty much anywhere he wanted. He could have built up a reputation to look pro-town. But as early as D1, he went all in, and bet his heart and soul and everything else on this GreyICE scumflip. He thinks he's going to be vindicated and all the antagonism that he's gathered this day phase will be set right.In post 884, goodmorning wrote:@BV: I'm still completely baffled by your IAI tr.That'ssomething I can't see scum faking and I don't think that in this context, and at this time, it makes sense for scum to do that.-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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I find it hard to believe that every single one of your suspects are people that are voting you. It reads as if you are trying not to antagonize anyone that's townreading you. I don't think Rask looks town. I don't think MariaR looks town. She's making similar arguments to Hoopla which basically comes down to "any wagon with support is a town wagon because if it was a scum wagon, it wouldn't have support." That's a bit of a circular argument. She wasn't even townreading you so the opposition to the wagon is weird. Same with Rask. He had you as null and then started casting around for wagons elsewhere. Why are you townreading them?-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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