Mini 1787: Peruvian Nightclub Mafia (Game End!)
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toolenduso Mafia Scum
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VOTE: ira
for being scum.
Also, hi ira and keyser!"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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toolenduso Mafia Scum
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Hey, that's cool. I actually only played for like less than a year in 2007 before I quit the site. Only came back a year or two ago."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 22, Dunnstral wrote:VOTE: iraonavp
Voting someone who hasn't even talked
like the mafia
This isn't an rvs vote, this is an actual read and its' not changing for the rest of the day
A little confused here. Is there like an inside joke between you and zach that I'm not getting? And are you joking about being serious?"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 38, Bins wrote:You entered the game with a level of comfort that looked sort of like "hey look at me! scum would never post like this!" It's a strategy I use... to often as scum.
I did not get that vibe. Could you explain and point to an example?
In post 55, Keyser Söze wrote:I'm pretty sure Dunnstral is not being "serious" - you're not feeling/seeing that care-free sarcastic vibe?
I do now, yeah. It's become more clear. At the time my thought was that the posts were either jokes or baiting.
Dunn's become a townlean.
In post 43, Dunnstral wrote:Bins
Why a townread on Bins?"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 66, Jaack wrote:@tool - thoughts on xyzzy?
Pretty neutral. The posts people have been talking about do not look all that insidious to me -- this early in the game you have to weigh the possibility that people are looking for a mislynch against the possibility that people are trying to get the game going.
In post 68, Jaack wrote:I did find it interesting that multiple players (xyzzy, tool, bins) all focused their early efforts on dunn. I think there is scum in there looking for an easy mislynch.
In post 64, toolenduso wrote:Dunn's become a townlean.
I have a question for you, actually -- have your thoughts on Robert changed?"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 72, Jaack wrote:As for me saying there is scum in {you, xyzzy, bins} are simply stating you are not scum or are you saying that none of the three of you are scum?
Just me -- specifically I was pointing out that it doesn't make sense for you to say I'm trying to get Dunn lynched when he is my only townlean.
In post 72, Jaack wrote:What do you think of Robert?
I think he wasn't thinking about the way he looked when he posted that first post. Since it's one post I don't think that's enough to base a read on, but it's there."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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This game is basically contradicting my expectations of how town usually gets out of RVS. I feel like it usually goes like this:
RVS votes -> player A says something mildly scummy -> people wagon player A, and in the process player B says something weird -> people wagon player B
By this time in the game I feel like there's usually been a legit wagon. Since there hasn't been one yet in this game, I feel like scum is either disjointed or timid.
The main thing was that I really expected at least a small wagon on Robert for his first post. As soon as I saw it I thought it looked very surface-level scummy. Exactly the sort of thing you can make a shallow case on. Good place to look for scum trying to go for something easy/look like they're scumhunting.
Then jaack was the only person to do anything about it. After that:
ira kinda joke-criticized jaack about it in #29, Tyler townread jaack in #54 for it, Keyser voted jaack for it in #55 and Dunn votes and makes a case on jaack in #91.
It just kinda makes sense to me that jaack could be scum and his partners didn't support the robert wagon but are also not really dealing with the fallout on jaack either. He's a good place to start, I think.
VOTE: jaack
In other news, re-reading gave me a townlean on Tyler. Not entirely for the way he's playing, though he is doing work (a surface-level towny-looking thing), but more the way that people started townreading him almost in kind of snowball fashion. It's striking me as the kind of thing where town say he looks town, impressionable town agree and scum hop onto the townreading wagon in an effort to have genuine-looking reads."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 89, xyzzy wrote:Zachstralkita has managed to talk a lot while saying very little, and I really don't like that.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Zachstralkita
It strikes me that this is kind of an easy vote to make.
What do you think of the possibility that zach is just a jokey player, so his posts are naturally going to have less solid content in them?
That being said...
...the jokey playstyle does make it harder for me to know whether statements like this one are serious. Can you explain the dunn vote, zach?"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 122, Zachstralkita wrote:This isn't Dunn being town, it's him trying to look like he's being town.
Trying to look town...could you show an example? Also, are you and Dunn like friends or something? 'cuz it seems like you know each other pretty well."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 158, xyzzy wrote:I definitely agree that this day is moving in an abnormal fashion; I'm curious how you believe this would likely affect most town players, since you offered an opinion on how that might change scum behavior.
Knowing how they'd respond would likely depend on individual playstyles. Errybody's different. For some people it might mean trying harder to get the game going -- maybe by starting a wagon just to see what happens -- and for others it might mean that they get disinterested and don't participate as much.
In my case, it's led to me trying to start a wagon to see what happens.
What do you think of jaack?
In post 134, Robert2424 wrote:I have a general Idea after catching up a feel for the players.
Can you share some thoughts? And how they lead to you voting for Jake?
In post 134, Robert2424 wrote:For he may try to take revenge upon me from a previous game.
Who's to say anybody would listen to him if he tried to get you lynched?
In post 155, iraonavp wrote:Is it not equally likely that Jaack voted Robert because he genuinely believed his post was suspicious, regardless of how "surface level" that belief might be?
I mean, yes, that's a possible motivation. But the motivation behind jaack's vote on Robert wasn't as important to me as people's reactions (or lack of reactions) to both jaack and Robert."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 206, Keyser Söze wrote:This is an interesting way/reason for town-leaning Tyler the Creator [based on the nature of him being mass-town-read]. I kind of switch off to the popular town/scum reads on D1. Have you found this observation-method accurate in previous games?
Not sure whether I've used this particular way of looking through things in an MS game before...I'd lean toward no. I think I actually approached it this way because I'm fresh off a game night where me and a couple other scummers played Resistance. I won't go into the details of how that game differs from forum mafia, but suffice to say that when scumhunting in that game you need to look at things a little differently. Specifically, you have to watch for ways that people make choices that seem to align them with certain other players.
In post 216, Jaack wrote:Yeah, definitely not joining the bins wagon now... while I think dunn's argument has merit, I'm NOT joining a wagon with ira and tool on it.
Does knowing that I'm not on the wagon change the way you feel about the Bins wagon at all?
In post 221, Jaack wrote:But as for tool=scum he has largely been going with what was popular at the time (early dunn questioning, my mini wagon) it's not much, but it gives me a lingering feeling he's scum.
'twas coincidence, not cause.
(It wasn't that I was following other people, it was that I happened to think something was significant and I wasn't the only one to think that)
In other news, ira may or may not be playing to his scum meta from the last time I played with him. I'm gonna go back and check out his early play in that game..."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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OK I tried looking back on the game I played with ira where he was scum, but pretty much decided it wouldn't be all that useful. Turns out he'd only just joined the site like a week or two before that game started. Also the circumstances were pretty different early on in that game -- we had a townie fakeclaiming jailkeeper by page four. Whereas we're 11 pages into this game and still haven't really run anybody up.
Gonna do some more work on this game now; wanted to note a couple things about mafia theory first. I disagree that readslists are useless/bad. I use them to organize my thoughts and help people understand where I'm coming from. They're how I hold myself accountable for making sure I don't get lazy and scumhunt based off of bullshit, basically. I also feel that they play, in some small way, a role in keeping the game civil.
I also think it's valid to assess wagons based on who's on them -- actually, it's probably more accurate than a lot of other scumhunting tactics people use. I let myself join wagons in the past year or so where I thought the people on those wagons looked scummy, and they often wound up being mislynches. I'd convinced myself that it was worth it because the wagon's target looked scummy, and I was wrong."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 268, heuristically_alone wrote:Up to this point, he had only joined in post 55 voting Jack as mafia (a surprisingly large amount of people immediately read Jack as mafia or town based off of his simple post 13)
Then immediately in posts 56-58 and 79-81 just quotes what others are saying and maybe asks follow up questions without literally given up anything original on his own. The only other posts he has made are 204-206 and 222, all of which he does the exact same thing. Just quoting others and giving a quick comment, but absolutely saying nothing original or doing nothing to help the game. 205 unvotes Jack, but that's that.
OK, but here's the thing though. Take a look at Keyser's early-game posts in this game.
I'm not gonna give him a pass or anything just yet, and actually I want to go through his ISO here in a minute, but I am approaching this with the knowledge that: A) People were suspicious of Keyser early in that game too, and B) Eventually he became pretty obvtown."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 279, Jaack wrote:In post 273, toolenduso wrote:OK I tried looking back on the game I played with ira where he was scum, but pretty much decided it wouldn't be all that useful. Turns out he'd only just joined the site like a week or two before that game started. Also the circumstances were pretty different early on in that game -- we had a townie fakeclaiming jailkeeper by page four. Whereas we're 11 pages into this game and still haven't really run anybody up.
Link please? Would like to take a look.
Here."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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Keyser:
-Lots of asking people questions designed to challenge them a bit, see #55, #79, #206.
-Unvotes jaack in #205 and hasn't revoted since then. Arc on jaack is natural enough, but it does come amid some pressure for his jaack read, and some people expressing suspicion of Keyser. Want to bookmark that for later.
-Not a whole lot to work with so far. Could be attributed to the stagnancy of the game or to being afraid of looking bad. Second point lends evidence to that.
ira:
-Ostensibly, ira treated the game like it was RVS until #198, because when people gave him flak for his Keyser vote his defense was that he was trying to build a wagon to get out of RVS. Fair enough. But in that same post he votes Bins, right after Dunn begins pushing for a Bins wagon. It's the same MO as when he voted for Keyser, basically, but at this point he's putting reasoning behind it. So it kind of all comes together to look like ira was floating along trying to look active, then got criticized for it and came up with an excuse (I'm trying to get out of RVS) but also tried to escape the criticism by going to the next viable wagon he could find (Bins). It's worth noting that ira says he didn't know Dunn was voting Bins (#256).
-He switches back to Keyser in #257. He has reasoning, and I do follow it logically, but it should be noted that it happens amid pressure for his Bins vote, and in the process of switching to Keyser he distances himself from the Bins vote.
-#259 just doesn't make sense, because mafia is a game where you can't trust people and therefore can't take what they say at face value. The lack of information forces you to try to read into why people are saying the things they're saying. So basically this comes across like a weak defense.
xyzzy:
-I have trouble with posts like #89. When I go back and do rereads, I make a point of condensing them into a more useful format -- that is, breaking them down player-by-player or wagon-by-wagon, only highlighting the most significant things, etc. This is a lot of posts and it's just done chronologically, and therefore my first thought is that it's just xyzzy looking for busywork to appear town. The problem is that it kinda fits the narrative about xyzzy coming back to the site after a long hiatus -- in other words, they could just be rusty. I guess I just want to note that so I can start to look for patterns.
-As I noted before, the vote on zach in that post is kind of "safe."
-On second glance, I'm not sure why the question xyzzy asked me in #158 mattered...in other words, I don't know what xyzzy expected to get out of it in the way of scumhunting.
jaack:
-As I noted before, #13 makes sense in a very surface-level way. Robert's post violated a very common buzzword-y kind of logic about what town's motivation is. So it's the kind of post I would expect scum to hop on, and jaack did.
-He switches to ira in #66, and it does come after Keyser votes jaack for voting robert. That being said, I guess I would think scum would try harder to get something going on robert? Whereas jaack doesn't really try all that hard.
-I'm noticing a pattern of something that kind of approaches OMGUS territory without diving into it headfirst. His vote on ira came after ira's cheeky "criticism" of jaack. And then in #127 he starts being suspicious of me based on me voting jaack. The reasoning he attaches to it in #221 is a little reach-y, which he admits.
Ira looks worse than I thought and jaack looks better than I thought.
VOTE: iraonavp
Would like to do Bins, Zach and Tyler next."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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Bins:
-Starts off with her read on dunn (#23), which people (myself included) were confused by, and which she later backed away from (#176). I can buy her reasons for backing away from it -- that the attitude she thought was scummy became consistent and started looking more like playstyle than alignment-indicative. It's a very natural thing to happen early in the game.
-Votes ira in #213. It's kinda one of those situations where she lets somebody else talk her into the vote. Slightly scummy to do, since she'd unvoted dunn after being criticized and needed a place to put her vote.
-Still overall pretty neutral on this slot though. It mostly just looks like she's trying to get into the game, which comes from either alignment.
Zach:
-Most of zach's posting makes it clear that he's taking a lighthearted/"jokey" approach to the game, which is fine. I assume that posts that make absolute statements like #94 and #159 are exaggerations.
-The dunn vote appears to me to be zach's way of trying to get things moving. It's like he's trying to get a reaction out of dunn or something. What's unclear is what exactly he expects to get out of dunn, or anybody else, with his vote. He hasn't switched off of dunn yet, and he's basically just been focusing on him.
-My theory is that this approach to the game is more likely to come from town, simply because it shows that the person doesn't really care how they look. I've seen exceptions to that (where the player in question was actually scum), but just on percentages I'd give the edge to town. That being said, it'll definitely be useful to keep track of patterns in Zach's pushing/votes/etc. throughout the game.
Tyler:
-I don't see a whole lot worth commenting on in Tyler's ISO. It's all pretty standard stuff, asking people for questions, collecting information, etc. The only thing to note is that although Tyler has been questioning people and it looks like he's attempting to drive the game forward, the game remains somewhat stagnant. Idk if that reflects more on Tyler or other people, but it's there.
-So I'm just going to revert back to my original reasoning on townleaning on Tyler -- that it makes sense to me that there was a cascade of townreads on him because he's town."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 283, heuristically_alone wrote:I don't see how an RVS from another game has anything to do with reading how he plays as scum or town.
Sorry if I didn't make this clear in my last post -- it seemed to me like you were kinda just scumreading Keyser based on his posting style, and I wanted to show you a towngame where his posting style was similar.
Which doesn't necessarily make him town here, but it does show that his posting style doesn't necessarily make him scum.
In post 283, heuristically_alone wrote:And why did he become pretty obvtown? Just by posting a lot of commentary of what others were saying?
No. Part of it had to do with this attitude he had that he was just town and didn't seem to get why people would think he wasn't town. Later it had to do with some specific voting he did. And then eventually he just started doing some super in-depth and helpful analysis that seemed very pro-town to me."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 298, Jake from State Farm wrote:Ha's made some good points. That vote for him is probably not a good one.
Do his good points make him more likely town?
Also, what are your thoughts on Dunn -- as in, why not vote him after your back-and-forth with him where you said he was lying?"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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OK, could you go into more detail on the zach read then? Because I weaklean town on that slot."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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Hi, I will post tomorrow probably but for now it is time for a birthday root beer float!"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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*tomorrow morning probably"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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^Wow I did not notice that. Interested in hearing the answer to that as well."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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Also kind of interested in this:
In post 358, Jaack wrote:Actually
UNVOTE:
VOTE: heuristically_alone
Ira is more scummy, but I would like to see some pressure on this player.
@floof: why specifically go after H_A to get him to post more? He's not among the least active players in this game. Why not try to get somebody like Robert to post more?
@jaack: Why did you want pressure on H_A specifically?"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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Also this seems like a contradiction to me:
In post 134, Robert2424 wrote:I must prepare myself for Jake. For he may try to take revenge upon me from a previous game.
In post 191, Robert2424 wrote:
Thank you, and I imagine you wouldn't. I beat you being mafia with AJ. it was awhile back.Jake from State Farm wrote:I dont even remember playing with you
You thought he would try to take revenge based on a previous game, but you're not surprised he doesn't remember that game?"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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Yeah that too."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 412, toolenduso wrote:@floof: why specifically go after H_A to get him to post more? He's not among the least active players in this game. Why not try to get somebody like Robert to post more?
OK scratch that, I thought H_A was more active than he is, but I checked the activity log and by post count H_A is in like the bottom five posters. So specifically I want to ask you, floof, why you wanted to get H_A to post more but not Robert or xyzzy?"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 422, heuristically_alone wrote:I feel like it would be more of a mafic tactic than town, since a town putting a vote at that point is rather pointless and absolutely no evidence to back it up. That's why I felt like for a player voting because of Robert's early vote, it is a greatest chance they are mafia by my book.
OK, but earlier you defended Jaack by saying that you don't understand why Jaack's vote on Robert made Jaack scum. Then you come back later and say that voting Robert for what he did is scummy. So what changed your mind?"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 422, heuristically_alone wrote:@Robert I already explained my reasoning for why I added you to my scum board, and if you were paying attention you would see that it has nothing to do with what you think of me, but of how you answered my question when I asked if you were mafia.
Also, didn't you ask Zach if he was mafia, and not Robert?"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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Actually I think he's at L-2:
That said, it might be a good idea to wait for an official votecount before we go any further."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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I feel like HA is a good lynch. But I feel like it's a tad fast to lynch right now and I kinda want to sleep on this and come back and look at it with a fresher eye tomorrow. So in the meantime I'd like to ask for no hammers on H_A just yet. And certainly don't do it without getting a claim out of him first."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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Also yeah it would be nice to hear from robert"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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@Zulfy: I'm voting ira
Which means ira should be at L-3 now with jaack's vote.
@Jaack: No, you're right. Doc is basically what scum claim when they think they're going to die. It's very possible he's scum fakeclaiming, but if he is doc then it would really suck to lynch him today. Because then we get rid of a PR for scum and then they have a chance to kill another one at night.
My plan was to compare ira and HA as lynch options. Now I've got some other stuff to look at."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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@zulfy: the last two VCs had me voting HA too.
fixed fixed fixed"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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So I'm going out of town this weekend. I'll have access to internet but I'll be doing stuff with family so I'm not sure whether I'll have time to post. That being said, I can monitor the game and I can post if I need to.
Where I'm at right now is that I feel like I can comfortably keep my vote on ira. There's some reviewing I still hope to do, and I'm still interested in hearing back from Robert on the stuff Jake and I have pointed out.
V/LA until Sunday."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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toolenduso Mafia Scum
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Uh...yep.
VOTE: heuristically_alone
Don't see any reason why ira would do this as scum, and HA's claim was already suspect because it was made close to being lynched.
We can extend the day a little longer if we want to, but I think we've got our lynch."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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Here, catching up"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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Notes:
-HA's points in his defense after ira's claim make HA look even worse IMO. He basically repeats Jaack's defense of him from earlier (side note: does this make jaack less likely to be a partner of HA's, since scum have daychat? come back to this) and then gives a lame excuse for not voting ira that contradicts the defense he'd just made.
-RE: #560, I'm not sure I've ever seen somebody say that it's a bad idea to lynch D1in general.I have no idea why that would be the case. He includes a conditional in the sentence, saying he's suspicious of HA. It feels off, and possibly like half distancing from a buddy, half trying to see if there's any way to kill the wagon on HA.
-RE: #563, Robert's explanations of his original voting of Jake continues to get more confusing. He wants town to know that Jake might try to take revenge on him, OK, you can do that without voting Jake. And he openly admits he has nothing to indicate whether Jake is town or scum, and yet he voted Jake after leaving the game for a while and catching up? Robert also doesn't answer my questions, he only answers Jake's.
-The claim is weird. It also seems like it could be an attempt to save HA.
In post 566, xyzzy wrote:448 (toolenduso) - it should basically go without saying that lynching h_a at this point in the day would've been a terrible idea, and pointing that out feels like a convenient way to say something about the current state of the game without reallysayinganything.
It should absolutelynotgo without saying. Towns are unpredictable, they can jump the gun, scum can quickhammer, etc. This happens, more than it should, and you should not assume that other players will think about these things before hammering a wagon.
-Gonna save my response to HA's claim explanation for my next post.
-#591 might be a point in favor of townBins, depending on flips."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 596, Robert2424 wrote:Im not lying. That's what the pm said.
To be absolutely 100% clear here, your role PM says that you are a "weak townie"?
In post 596, Robert2424 wrote:I didn't see the point of a modifier other then to screw me. This is as far as I can tell is the first time playing with zuffy as the MOD. So I don't think he did it to screw me as I don't know him, so why is it in the game? If two protective roles are truly in the game, it makes more sense. If not, why for sake of balancing have the modifier? If you can come up with a theory that makes sense I'll listen, but 2 protective roles makes sense behind the reasoning of giving me this silly modifier. Or anybody for that Matter.
OK, but as far as I can tell, all this logic applies if town hasoneprotective role as well. So why did you think, upon seeing two claims of protective roles, that your role made the other two make sense?"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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I mean, you make some salient points. But there are a couple of points not quite making it all the way through my head:
In post 632, Jaack wrote:Scenario 2 is just about as unlikely due to Robert's claim. His claim doesn't make much sense if he's the only scum: he was trying to stop a lynch on one of two prs in that scenario.
Wouldn't it only make sense for Robert to have been trying to stop HA's lynch, given the fact that Robert didn't claim untilafterira counterclaimed? Put another way, ira was not in danger -- so how could scumRobert's claim have been a means of getting scumIra out of the noose?
And if it is the case that Robert-ira doesn't make sense as a scum team, then doesn't that change your possible arrangements to {all three are town} or {Robert and HA are scum together; ira is town}?
In post 632, Jaack wrote:Ira or h_a being scum alone is maybe possible, but it wouldn't really make sense with Robert's role. Macho townie is a really strange role unless there are multiple protective options.
I don't believe I've ever played with a macho role and I don't really understand why it would make more sense to have a macho role with two protective town PRs than with one protective town PR."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 635, Jaack wrote:The Robert/ira scum team is definitely the least likely, which is why we should lynch HA first if robert flips scum. But if we assume that that is reality for a moment, then the second that HA flipped town (which he is in this scenario) ira would be basically confirmed scum. Robert would be preemptively protecting his scumbuddy I guess. It doesn't make that much sense but its probably the 3rd most likely case.
So you're arguing that we should lynch Robert first because ira/Robert is still possible, if unlikely?"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 639, Dunnstral wrote:I mean you can bring up scenarios and percentages all day long, realistically I don't think Robert is mafia so I'm not thinking this is a good vote
Sorry if you've already addressed this, but I looked back at your posts and didn't see anything -- what do you make of the fact that Robert said he had never heard of the macho modifier, then later said he was a macho townie?
@Jaack: Idk...I mean, I get what you're saying. I think we disagree about the likelihood of a Robert/ira scum team. But I'm also a little afraid that if we don't lynch HA now, he gets off the hook."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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The amount and structure of resistance to lynching HA makes me continually comfortable with the lynch. And regardless of his flip, we will have a lot more evidence to look at tomorrow than we've had for most of today."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 653, iraonavp wrote:I think that Robert is town-aligned.
I feel like heuristically_alone is more likely to be town-aligned than not, when I think about it.I'm doubting that there would be both a macho townie and a bodyguard, when both aren't strong roles.
I'm confused. You doubt Robert's claim, and you still think he's town?
In post 684, iraonavp wrote:I don't like how you feel the need to justify it with weak reasons like this
Justify? No, not really. If you hadn't noticed by now, the way I play the game is kind of a building process. I leave myself notes as I go along, and every once in a while I leave a case or a readslist or something. I'm not justifying it so much as I'm laying down a path for where I've been and where I'm going.
And assuming I'm alive tomorrow (the most likely case), where I'm going is that I'm going to be looking at how people interacted with
In post 684, iraonavp wrote:It would be really bad if we're both town-aligned
Good thing I don't think you both are. But I'm not going to let my number one lynch candidate out of the noose because they might be town. Everybodymightbe town.
In post 684, iraonavp wrote:"information lynches" don't exist.
I would argue that most D1 lynches are "information lynches." You rarely have anything solid to go on -- just look at the HA lynch here. Even with a counterclaim to his role, we have people like you saying it's not solid evidence.
In post 684, iraonavp wrote:The gambit that Jaack is theorizing seems altogether impossible to me.
I think part of this hinges on the whole "my role makes both their roles likely" concept. Because if Robert really believed that -- and other people in the game do too, apparently, and I still don't think I understand why -- it provides an alternative town explanation for his claim.
It does not, however, address the weirdness with his role name."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 690, toolenduso wrote:And assuming I'm alive tomorrow (the most likely case), where I'm going is that I'm going to be looking at how people interacted with
...the HA and Robert wagons. Don't know how I left that part off."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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Hey zakk!
So I did some analysis during the night, and I'm only going to post the first half (next post) until I get answers from Bins and Tyler on the following questions:
If robert was fakeclaiming scum, he wouldn't be reading a role PM. He'd be making up a claim. So what did you mean by this?In post 609, Tyler the Creator wrote:my take is that i don't like roberts play buti can't remember the last time scum misread their role pmwhereas town do it once in a while
The first couple sentences here seem to suggest you think Robert could be scum. The last suggests you're sure he's town. Which was it, and what do you think of Robert's claim now?In post 681, Bins wrote:But in a way, man, clearing up the H_A and Robert scum possibility is important. I just agree that there's a chance - A CHANCE - that H_A is scum and Robert is not and that's more likely than Robert scum and H_A not. Robert's move, much like Irao's, was crazy town."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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On second thought, I'll just wait to post my analysis until I get answers from them. Just to do things right and make absolutely sure I'm not influencing any answers."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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Got it.In post 705, Bins wrote:The move was crazy town itself. As in, if H_A had flipped town, Robert would be pretty much conf town to me. But now that's he's flipped scum, I have no idea.
Leaning town on Bins.
Ohhhh OK. That makes sense, thank you for clearing that up.In post 711, Tyler the Creator wrote:depends if scum get fakeclaims? i don't play a lot of normals so im not completely sure if that's usually a thing
my point was basically that scum are more careful when claiming stuff
What are you basing this on? Did you research this?In post 712, Jaack wrote:The Macho modifier, while theoretically conceivable on an otherwise vanilla role, is virtually always seen on something with a night action, generally a powerful one, so as to balance it."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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K analysis.
It occurred to me that we've actually gained a pretty valuable tool for finding the third scum if we can find the second scum.
The fact scum have daytalk changes the dynamic of HA's doc claim. There's no way scum wouldn't have discussed HA's claim prior to him claiming, so the other scum on the team would have had some kind of plan. IMO, there were only two objectives scum could've had there: assuming HA would die and voting him immediately, or trying to use HA's claim to dismantle his wagon.
So if we get a scumflip on a player who bussed HA after he claimed doc, it would be logical to assume that the other scum player also bussed HA. And if we get a scumflip on a player who seemed like they were waiting to see how other people reacted, or who actively tried to dismantle the HA wagon, we would do well to look for another player that acted similarly.
Specifically, if Robert is scum, this suggests that the scum were trying to save HA with his doc claim, because why would Robert step in and claim macho townie if not to save HA? If that were the case, and we would only know for sure if we got a scumflip on Robert, then we would do well to hunt for the last scum within the pool of people who tried to argue that HA was town after the doc claim.
On the Robert claim, I'm less inclined to lynch him than I was toward the end of D1. Part of this has to do with rereading the last part of #596. I finally understand what he was saying. We were thinking about game balance in different ways, I think. I was thinking about how a mod would try to have rolesinteract with each other, while Robert was talking about weighingnegatives against positives within the town. While I think we disagree about how bad a macho townie is for town, I get the basic logic at least.
On top of that, I also realized that it's weird to see fakeclaiming, gambiting scum not only coming up with the super weird fakeclaim of macho townie, but then having that explanation (from #596) for why they think a macho townie would be in the game. The structure of what he's writing doesn't really fit in with the kind of mindset that a scum partner would have to have in order to think that fakeclaiming under those circumstances was a good idea.
Spoiler: The HA wagon
Spoiler: Robert's claim
Conclusions:
-More suspicious of Tyler now.
-More suspicious of floof now.
-Jake is probably town.
-Keyser is probably town.
-Bins is maybe town.
Up next:
-Looking through HA's ISO for interactions.
-Examining the cognitive dissonance I have when considering the possibility of a Tyler-floof/zakk-HA scum team."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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No. What I meant was: {you declared intent to hammer} -> {zach declared intent to hammer, but his hammer would come before yours} -> {you hammered}In post 767, Dunnstral wrote:The line (after zach declares intent to hammer, but earlier than dunn) is confusing to me a bit, you're meaning zach declares intent to hammer after me, but at an earlier time?
Yeah that's what I meant when I said I needed to think about the cognitive dissonance that happens when considering the possibility of a Tyler-zakkfloof-HA scum team.In post 767, Dunnstral wrote:Do you think tyler would hard bus his mafia partner (floof) as his other partner (h_a) is getting lynched? That seems pretty risky
Short answer is that you're right, it does seem very risky. Not unprecedented, but certainly risky.
Which means I need to decide which of them I think looks scummier. Interactions with HA might help clear that up.
Yeah I actually haven't explained the bins thing much before now because my reasons for thinking she might be town have all been kind of adjacent to the main analyses. I might go into a better explanation later, but it more or less boils down to feeling like Bins has -- a couple of times now -- asked questions that would seem unnecessary or possibly even risky for scum to bring up.In post 767, Dunnstral wrote:"bins is maybe town" not sure where you drew that conclusion from... I do see you talking about bins under the robert section but nothing to indicate they're town
Honestly, not a whole lot as of right now.In post 767, Dunnstral wrote:What do you think of xyzzy?"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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HA's interactions with...
Dunnstral:
-#268 is HA providing reasons to Dunn for why Keyser might be scum. It seems a little more coordinated than I would expect from two partners...possible, but I lean town.
-The second half of the post is....a little harder to tell. HA is clearly buddying up to Dunn. My first thought rereading this is that HA was trying to drop associatives with Dunn so that if he flipped we would come back and think townDunn was HA's partner. And then it veered immediately into WIFOM territory from there when I realized it could also be HA trying to look too buddy-buddy with his partner for people to ever think they were scumpartners. I'd tend to believe the former (that HA was buddying up to townDunn) over the latter, just based on the different levels of insidiousness and foresight necessarily involved in each scenario.
Robert:
-Says Robert's been inactive and he doesn't have a read on him in #281, but leaves open a door to possibly scumread Robert later. This one could go either way in terms of looking partner-y.
-Suddenly has Robert as a top-two scumread in #392.
-Ah right, and then Jake points out the weirdness about HA's flipflop on Robert, which is that before #392, HA was talking about Robert like he was town and using that to justify another read (on jaack I believe).
-And then in #434 HA talks about mixing up Robert and Zach re: which person he'd asked if they were scum. He says he mixed up games, but bottom line is HA invented reasons to scumread Robert. That suggests HA is not partners with Robert imo. The whole arc looks a lot more like HA being opportunistic scum than it looks like bussing scum.
Bins:
-HA's take in #281 on Bins' #38 is pretty weird. It's like he's saying that regardless of whether Bins looks towny or scummy, she will be scum. Lean not partner on this.
Zachstralkita:
-#265 seems pretty ballsy for a partner-on-partner interaction. I think I'd actually have to give kudos to HA on this one if he's partners with Zach because this just does not seem like a partnery interaction at all.
-HA's reasoning for keeping his vote on Zach in #281 feels forced.
-Yeah he just clearly is trying to come up with reasons to keep his vote on Zach. Feels like HA was treating Zach as a safe haven for his suspicions. Def does not look like partners to me.
Keyser:
-Again, #268 doesn't seem like HA talking about a scum partner to me. A player brings up that they can't justify a scumread on HA's partner and HA volunteers reasoning for why his partner is scum?
-In #394 HA puts Keyser in his top three for scum for a dumb reason. Reminds me a little of how it looked like he was reaching for reasons to scumread Zach actually.
xyzzy:
-Only three mentions of xyzzy in HA's ISO, and two of them are when he's using xyzzy to explain his townread on Dunn.
-The third is in his readslist in #281, and it's an underdeveloped townread on xyzzy.
-This is maybe partner material.
floof:
-And an underdeveloped scumread on floof in that same readslist (#281).
-Literally no other comments on floof throughout the game.
-Also maybe partner material.
Tyler:
-Only real mention of Tyler is in the #281 readslist, and it's a townread...despite the fact that he first points out that he doesn't understand why tyler posted his first post. The townread is for having similar thoughts about the game.
-Also maybe partner material.
Jaack:
-By far the weirdest thing here is HA at first treating Jaack like he's town by looking for scum going after Jaack (#281), then later reversing (#329) and talking about how scum would be more likely to go after Robert's vote (like Jaack did). That's basically the bulk of his interactions with Jaack actually. It seems almost like HA slipped that he wasn't Jaack's partner by first treating Jaack like he was town. Part of that theory has to do with how HA responds to Jake in #422, by repeating what he said in #329 even though it didn't make sense. It's like he was trying to cover up a mistake he'd made, the mistake being that he had forgotten to leave room for the possibility that Jaack was scum.
Jake:
-Gives a somewhat confusing reason for townreading Jake in #281. Other than that, not really a whole lot of any thoughts on Jake. Jake's interactions with HA are far more significant imo.
Looking better: Dunn, Robert, Bins, Zach, Keyser, Jaack
Neutral: Jake
Looking worse: xyzzy, floof/zakk, tyler"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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True, he was pretty lowkey for the beginning of the game.In post 772, Tyler the Creator wrote:i can see where he's coming from with the tyler stuff for the most part except ignoring ha isn't exactly fair to say because he was pretty lurktastical
Ah, so you did. Noted.In post 772, Tyler the Creator wrote:and i did put some attention on floof's initial vote there
Right, I mean if you're scum that's all you can say and if you're town it's true, so it's not a point that can really be vetted for me.In post 772, Tyler the Creator wrote:and coming back right around his claim was just a matter of the timing just happening that way
I tend to discount reasoning like this just because I think people can be swayed a lot when they're in the moment -- ie, it could seem obvious to a player looking back now that the robert wagon wouldn't go through, but for a scum partner maybe at the time it could seem more possible and therefore appealing.In post 772, Tyler the Creator wrote:plus realistically the chances of a robert wagon (or anyone else for that matter) going through were slim to none and i'd have probably played it similarly as scum except i probably don't bother voting robert to try and get him to respond to my question because why bother (which he still hasn't done btw)"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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If I were to vote right now I think it'd be for zakk. But atm I feel more inclined to come back to this tomorrow and see if I feel the same way. Either way it'd be worth it to ISO xyzzy, as I'm realizing now that they've kind of flown under my radar."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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The problem with this theory, for me, is that I've done literally this exact same thing as scum, but with two town. I get what you're saying, I just don't really find it all that convincing.In post 852, xyzzy wrote:731 (Dunnstral) - I don't understand how this isn't obvious to anyone else; h_a, who was scum, tried arguing that Floof and Bins aren't scum together, and then almost immediately after suggested that they're both scummy, without any other info. I think h_a was trying to avoid saying anything too substantial about anyone, while still trying to make at least 1 scum partner look better.
Pretty much the exact concern I've developed. It goes back to what I said about joining wagons with people who look scummy to you -- I'm suspicious of Tyler and xyzzy; both want to lynch zakk. So I have to consider the likelihood that: a) scum are bussing, b) zakk is town or c) I'm totally wrong about who's scum. Will reflect on this more once I'm done catching up.In post 862, Jaack wrote:I do think that zakk is a solid lynch, but I am a bit concerned with how quickly this push on him developed....
What do you think of HA's interactions with Dunn?In post 867, Jake from State Farm wrote:Would have more fun if people would help me lynch scum but nobody seems to want to
This is confusing. Didn't you come into D2 townreading Dunn?
Wasn't this posted before zakk even got a role PM?In post 872, zakk wrote:I replaced it as a favor but I'm not going to just replace into this slot and roll over for a mislynch immediately because you fuckers are lazyEdit from later: Yep, this was before zakk posted in-thread that he didn't get a role PM. Zakk, can you explain?"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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For now, I am going to
VOTE: xyzzy"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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Fair.
I'm going to (strategically) only partially answer this right now -- xyzzy and zakk are my top two, you are third. I can be more clear later.In post 1010, Tyler the Creator wrote:how would you order your scumreads based just on individual strength, tool?
Not strictly, no. HA's interactions are part, voting arcs are part, posting is part.In post 1010, Tyler the Creator wrote:and are they based strictly off of HA interactions or what?"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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I am going to deliberately not weigh in on this and suggest that everybody else do the same.In post 1083, xyzzy wrote:I definitely think Dunnstral's townie claim (which I asked about in 993) is a fairly crucial piece of information given his response to my question about it in 994, and I'm really curious what other people think about it"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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Done with one out of three things I want to do, going to do at least one more today."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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Looks like I got some catching up to do...tomorrow.
I'm two out of three now. Hope to finish it off and catch up and post and stuff tomorrow.In post 1154, Bins wrote:Tyler, I'm waiting for input from Keyser and Tool and xy before I place my vote."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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