Min 1787: Mafia PT

[Creature]

I guess that's okay.

Creature kills Zach

toolenduso tracks xyzzy

[Creature]

Anything else?

[toolenduso]

Don't think so. I think we're still in a pretty good place.

[toolenduso]

Oh and we do have daychat btw so we can keep talking once the game thread opens.

[Creature]

Well, I'll take my time to read at least the latest pages.

Hope nobody minds my entrance.

[Creature]

I saw this post, what do you think of it?

[toolenduso]

I got paranoid about it for a second, and then reminded myself that it's exactly what townJake would say whether he's a PR or a VT. If he's a PR, he gets to acknowledge that somebody thought he was a PR without confirming that he is or revealing any information at all, basically confusing scum while laying the groundwork for him to claim later and make it believable. If he's a VT, then he potentially draws the night kill, effectively saving whatever PRs town does have for that night.

I did look back to see if I could find any crumbs in Jake's early ISO and I couldn't find anything. Also, he basically went into N1 suspecting Dunn more than anyone else (I think) and yet he came into D2 with a vote on Dunn.

[Creature]

Done reading.

Now I need to act genuine.

[toolenduso]

Xyzzy didn't go anywhere, and Zachstral was a VT.

So....

[Creature]

Tyler/Jaack/Jake

[toolenduso]

Yeah it's pretty much down to those three, barring something weird. I'd put Jake at the top of that by poe.

[toolenduso]

ok so I had a thought.

If dunn is going to be basically cleared from this (based on the logic of why would a scum godfather fakeclaim cop after being cleared), then town is going to have the following clears automatically:

-Jake
-Dunn
-Bins (by virtue of her claim)
-Robert (cleared by Jake)

Which means that town then knows that of the five remaining players, two are scum.

Over time it gets tougher and tougher for you and I to not bus each other, as the number of players in that second pool decreases lynch by lynch.

So my thought is -- you come out agreeing with Jaack and trying to get Dunn lynched, and I go on the opposite side and say there's no way Dunn is scum. This pits us against each other, and we expect you to get lynched at some point. Preferably after we lynch Jaack.

Then we hope that the towncred I get from that, plus my bus of HA on D1, is enough to get me through to LyLo.

If you don't want to do it, that's fine, we can go the conventional route. Just a thought I had.

[toolenduso]

all right I slept on it and I'm not sure that's a good plan after all. Since town is headed into PoE mode for the rest of the game probably, they will either quickly or eventually realize that scum would have heavy motive to bus in this situation. Gambiting could just help highlight who the scum team is for them.

So, some other thoughts.

Jake's the only PR we need to kill as a priority because if he gets one more clear we are basically fucked. But with him out of the way, we don't need to necessarily prioritize Bins or Robertslot or Dunn in any particular order. Bins' role is now worthless; it doesn't matter if she sees that somebody is NK'd or tracked because she won't be able to tell who's doing it.

So we keep alive whoever is the least likely to lead town in the right direction, basically. From here on out it's a game of us shrinking their pool of clears versus them shrinking their pool of possibilities. And pretty much no matter what we do, in all likelihood those pools are gonna be dead even in terms of numbers for the rest of the game.

Bottom line: we will end up bussing each other. It's basically necessary. What we need to shoot for is having one of us endgame. It's all about self-preservation now.

[Creature]

I agree on attacking Dunn.

Bins' claim looks pretty iffy.

If there's a cop then it's very like town will think mafia has a GF, and Robert's claim looks terrible.

[toolenduso]

Jake cleared Robert

[Creature]

Yeah, though it's pretty easy to spectulate a GF in this setup, though, I don't think Robert will be pushed because town actually thinks whoever claims Macho VT is automatically town.

[toolenduso]

Hey Zulfy, got your pm by the way. I did remember this was here, just didn't really have anything else to say.

All alone now. So cold. So dark.

Obviously Jake is going to be the night kill tonight. And I am pretty, pretty sure I won't be needing to track anyone. Not that there would be any harm necessarily, but if bins found out scum had a tracker then town would have more info about scum and I guess I'm just against giving town information on principle since information is scum's advantage.

Gonna use this pt to map out what needs to happen for the rest of the game. I'm actually pretty happy TOF didn't hammer xyzzy because that would've created kind of a tough situation for me as somebody who said that either xyzzy was scum or Tyler was. I'll probably still have to walk down that road eventually but yeah.

[toolenduso]

So, I kill Jake and then:

-7 players, 1 of which is scum. Jaack will have to be off my lynch list, so I'll be pushing for xyzzy. Let's say we lynch xyzzy. Kill...TOF? Dunn? I kinda want to keep Bins alive as long as she keeps townreading me. I guess I'll have to reevaluate at the end of the day.
-5 players, 1 of which is scum. I'll have to reconsider the possibility of Tyler being scum, and I'll have to weigh it against the possibility that I'm wrong about Jaack and Creature both going for Dunn the way they did. Let's say we lynch Jaack, since even if I try to get Tyler lynched I kind of doubt people will go for it. At night I kill, like, probably Dunn or Bins. TOF by now for sure if he's still alive.
-3 players, 1 of which is scum. Assuming Tyler is alive, it'll be a clear 1v1 between me and him.

Actually, that's true of anybody I'm left alive with. There are enough clears in my clear pool that one of them will have to live through to LyLo unless by some miracle people actually lynch Dunn.

I'll have to watch to see if people change their tune on Dunn through the next couple day phases, because if he is a lynch possibility then that would be great for me going into 3p LyLo. I suppose that also depends on whether Bins is still townreading me. Idk I'm a little scared of her, just since she's been mercurial and I feel like she keeps getting paranoid that I'm scum.

At any rate, I guess if I'm debating over whether I need Dunn or Bins alive in LyLo, that makes TOF the obvious kill tomorrow. Pretty much no way in hell that guy is getting lynched. He has mostly been dead weight for town, so that's nice to have around, but it's not worth sacrificing people who might be necessary to keep around if I want any chance of winning in LyLo.

[toolenduso]

I basically expect tomorrow to be a cake walk. Town is way ahead right now, so that removes any urgency to lynch the right person, people have wanted to lynch xyzzy all game and they haven't been around to defend themselves much.

It's the next couple day phases I'm more worried about.

[toolenduso]

Actually I just realized that if I can get Tyler lynched the day after xyzzy, I will have an amazingly good chance of winning, because then I'll got to 3p LyLo where the remaining clear will have to choose between me and Jaack. And I look squeaky clean next to Jaack.

[toolenduso]

Also sorry but I want a little more time to do work on the game before I submit the kill/ask for end of night.

[toolenduso]

Kill: Jake From State Farm

Eh. Ready to go to daytime.

[toolenduso]

Oh and I just want to kind of acknowledge in here for posterity that I'm largely responsible for the state scum is in right now because I pushed for the Zachstral NK. I don't exactly know atm where I should've looked to see that I was wrong, but somehow Dunn and Bins both saw Jake's hints that he was cop without me knowing so I guess I have to get better at finding that stuff.

[toolenduso]

All right. Good possibility I'm fucked now. Oh well.

[toolenduso]

Ha. Wow. Got xyzzy lynched at least. I struggle on for another day phase.

...in which I will probably get lynched. Idek how I'm going to approach reading Tyler and Jaack at this point lol.