Open 674: Duck Duck Goose [Game Over]
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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When I saw that post, I wanted to say "read or replace out" but thought I'd sound like a jerk. Thankfully, Rels did it for me.
But seriously, if you don't want to read a ton of pages, you always have the option of signing /in for a game taking signups. It seems rude to replace in and say you won't read.
Looking forward to Hap's catchup as well.-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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I posted eight hours ago and then I went to work... I would actually very much like you to be more active because POE is hard and you are one slot that if you put in your best effort, I can have a more solid townread. Anything I can do to help you bring back the energy you had in Mini 1843?In post 1751, Creature wrote:I just want to first know the number of votes havingfitz has and I want to see where BlackVoid went.
Catching up on the rest now.-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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I'm not unvoting Hap. From his end, he barely had any interaction with Hawk. Just two posts 687 and 725 where he interacts with Hawk but doesn't state a read on him. Then comes 1371 saying Hawk is probably mafia right when he votes him at deadline. He also never retracts his Aubrey scumread which I find suspicious just because of how unlikely it was for them to be partners based on how Hawk jumped on the Aubrey wagon. Since then his prod-dodging did nothing to change my mind.
With that said, I'd prefer to not end the day anytime soon. There's so much information we still need in order to solve the game and cutting it short will put us on the backfoot. For example, I've been waiting for a lot of these things to happen:
1. Momo catching up and thoroughly explaining his reads.
2. Kop either doing the same and explaining his Rels read or him getting replaced and the replacement getting up to speed.
3. Hap finding time for this game and giving us his updated thoughts.
4. Fitz's outoforder case.
5. Creature hopefully becoming more active.
We can't just let Momo and Kop skate by and end the day. Because in case we're wrong about them being town, we'll never get a chance to figure it out unless we prod them into activity. So, that's my reason for wanting to prolong the day.
@momo - when you voted Fitz, what were you basing your decision on? Could you also lay out reasons for your scumreads on Kop, Hap, and Rels?
@outoforder - you were unsure about Hapahauli yesterday. Is your sole reason for townreading him that he showed up at deadline to put down a vote on Hawk? He already said earlier when Aubrey was a likely lynch that he'd be back before deadline. If he didn't show up and Hawk got lynched, that would look pretty bad for him. If he didn't show up and Hawk was lynched D2, that would also look bad for him. But voting when he did makes it a lot more ambiguous so I don't really see that as a strong reason to townread him. You got any other reason? I'm not one to buy into the "lynch me and do this" stuff. If you are town, just walk me through exactly why you are townreading Hap and scumreading Fitz and I'll take that into consideration. Your thoughts on KidAmn would be much appreciated as well.
@Creature - can you do one of striked-out lists showing who you townread and who you suspect? Why do you want to end the day early when the last time you did it in Mini 1843 for D5 and D6, town lost? You don't look like you have the game figured out so help me out here.-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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Trying to POE the game, I decided to go through people's interactions with Hawk. I'll start with these three today. I'll do the remaining six players in a couple more sections tomorrow.
Creature & Hawk interactions:From a re-read, I'm fairly positive Creature is town. There's a consistent thread of gamesolving through his ISO where he zeroes in on Hap and Hawk as scum. His interactions with Hawk don't look like bussing. He immediately latches onto Hawk's bad entrance pushing Doomfeathers, always has him as a scumread and is willing to lynch him. His choice to vote Hawk at deadline over Kop matches up with his reads perfectly. I liked 351, 630, 631, 638, 641, and 1313 in particular. His Hap read resonates with me because I share it. As for Hawk's posts, the sequence in 537 and 538 seemed like a genuine interaction with Creature pressing his scumread Hawk for a stance on his other scumread Hap, and Hawk resisting. 669 gives me slight pause because Hawk tries to stretch for a reason to not lynch Creature. But Hawk's shade-throwing at Creature and trying to get people paranoid of him in 659 and finally him pointing fingers at Creature's vote on Aubrey being more opportunistic than his own, seals Creature as a strong townread for me.
KidAmn & Hawk interactions:I'm not as sure here but I think KidAmn is probably town. 538 is the biggest indicator where Hawk sides with Hap over KidAmn and parrots what Rels said earlier about KidAmn's reaction being bad. 377 sounded like he was unhapppy with the townread on KidAmn; I think if KidAmn was a partner, Hawk would be fine with him getting townreads. I'm not sure how I feel about his vote in 787 where he says we can always come back to Hap but that he needed to pressure KidAmn to get him talking. 789 felt like coaching at first glance but doesn't make sense to do with daytalk. The only time KidAmn talks to Hawk is 534 which is probably a very slight lean towards not-partners given how he's trying to convince Hawk. I don't get KidAmn's townread on Cass in the space between 817 and 895 or willingness to vote Rels just on Cass's word. But I think he believes in his Hap push. I wouldn't say it's impossible that he's on a team with Fitz/Hawk but I just don't see KidAmn being scum in the first place.
Cass & Hawk interactions:While I'm wary of Cass, I think 1398 showed pride in having "correctly" read Hawk as town - and it's true, she did townread Hawk since replacing in. I don't think it was an entirely unreasonable read. Hawk made some very good, introspective, reflective posts. I do want to know why vote Hawk over Kop if you were so sure that I was scum and I was hard-pushing Hawk. You never wondered that I might be scum partnered with Kop and was pushing Hawk as a counterwagon? 660 and 865 looked like town genuinely having a townread. My biggest concern with Cass is that she reminds me a lot of how the scumteam in Mini 1843 (Cloudkicker, MariaR, and Sotty7) played. There were a ton of over-the-top genuine-sounding interactions and hard-defending. If Cass is from Epic-Mafia, I'd be fairly confident she's scum, otherwise leaning town but somewhat of a tossup. I'll have to come back to this as I'm mostly dismissing her as town for that reaction in twilight.
Summary - There's no way Creature is scum. KidAmn's interactions with Hawk are unremarkable but his posts by itself seem town. Cass is tough to read and I'm setting her aside for later but I'm leaning towards that reaction after Hawk's lynch being slightly town.-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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I think that's L-1. No one hammer please. I'm going to do a review of D2.
[L-1] havingfitz - outoforder, cassielle, momo, Kop, hapahauli
[L-2] hapahauli - BlackVoid, Rels, Creature, havingfitz
[L-5] outoforder - KidAmn
@Hap, when you voted Hawk, were you still scumreading Aubrey? And give me more than just "it's Fitz/Rels and it's obvious." I could see them potentially being scum and I could also see you as scum and anything to help get a better read would be appreciated.-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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How can you say "Kop is the margin of error" given Hawk was scum and Fitz was pushing him as a counterwagon, and Rels initially voted there before I kept pushing him to switch to Hawk. If either of them are scum with Hawk, it's pretty unlikely Kop is scum. That read doesn't even make any sense.
I don't have a solid townread on Fitz but I think we should lynch Hap and go from there.-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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By the way, he just won a scumgame and posted this at endgame. Lmao.In post 1879, hapahauli wrote:We did it boyz.
Random thoughts on the game:
1) The activity overview will tell you everything you need to know about what happened. Town ate itself alive while scum comfortably lurked to victory. MusicBox and I were far and away the least active players alive. I don't consider myself fairly good at scum, but I was never given any opportunity to make mistakes, given how little pressure I had on me.-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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When you showed up right at deadline, if you read any of the posts that rl day, you'd see that I was pushing Aubrey hard, then went back and called him town and called Hawk's vote opportunistic. How did you not have an opinion on that? You didn't seem to have any sort of revelation that Aubrey was town that led you to Hawk. It was just "if not Aubrey, then Hawk." Did you think Hawk was bussing there?-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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If Hap was legitimately busy the last couple of weeks, I think he would say at endgame something like "sorry guys, I was legit busy irl and it had nothing to do with me being scum." He would point out the activity overview and go "look at this, I'm a cheeky scumbag that lurked to a win." The most likely explanation I see here is that he was scum in both games and that's why he wasn't very active on site.-
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BlackVoid
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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Yeah, except Fitz was looking pretty bad from defending Hawk as was Rels from hesitating to vote him. If neither of them are your partners, I can easily see you bussing to score two mislynches which would put the game in MyLo since it's a 12P game. There was a decent chance Hawk was going to get lynched at some point. If he was lynched over your objections, it's pretty much a guaranteed loss for you. If we no lynched or you managed to (mis)lynch Kop, and I hard-pushed Hawk on D2 and got him lynched, you'd still look pretty bad and would likely be lynched D3. Your best shot at winning at that point would be a clean bus.-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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And you seem to have played with Rels a lot. Why didn't you say anything about his alignment when he was pushing you for a good part of D1? You were mostly just trying to convince him that you were town. You only throw him out there as a scumread now when it's looking like he might be a possible suspect.-
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@Hap - Rels voted Hawk a few hours before lylo too.
@KidAmn - It was the second sentence from that post that made me feel like you were warming up to a Fitz lynch. You also started off the day voting outoforder as opposed to Hap who was your most confident scumread from D1. Who would you be voting if you had to pick between Hap and Fitz?-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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By the way, Kop isn't clear and could be scum with Hap. If Kop is scum, then him being the counterwagon to scum-Hawk is meaningless because in that scenario Fitz and Rels would both be town. I'll copy-paste the stuff I was writing up about Kop last night: There are only two significant interactions here. The first is the back-and-forth in 356 where Hawk soft-suspects Kop of scumslipping and Kop's response in 520 where he clarifies but doesn't take a stance on Hawk's alignment. The second is the sequence of 887, 888, and 889 which happened the page after my first reads-wall. It's possible that when it seemed like the momentum would swing from Hap to Rels, both Kop and Hawk latched onto that. I wouldn't discount Cass as scum for the same reason.
I spent quite some time D1 thinking Cass and Hap were cross-bussing. That's something that should be considered as well.
outoforder has a bunch of interactions with Hap that I think would be hard to fake but I'm no longer reading him as obvtown after his defense of Hap D2 and he should be considered in more detail. He engaged Hawk early but didn't really say much about Hawk except having him as a tertiary scumread towards the end of D1.
Fitz probably isn't scum with Hap. I can't rule it out entirely without looking more closely but I'm thinking he'd jump at the Rels or KidAmn wagons D1 if he were scum.
Doomfeathers is the only reason I'm townreading Momo. His contribution has been really bad and he needs to be forced to step it up tomorrow. Hawk came in pushing Doom but never really followed up on that. I still think the way Doom replaced out while guessing the scumteam is a towntell though.
Creature is 100% town and KidAmn most likely is too.
Rels is probably the toughest to sort. I still feel there was something weird about the "Welcome to the game hapahauli" phrase he said followed by withdrawing his scumread and pushing whoever Hap wanted as the lynches for the day. I wouldn't discount a bus possibility entirely if he thought Fitz would get lynched today and then he could push outoforder next before finally hard-bussing and getting to mylo. I did think there were a few genuine posts though where he "realized" that outoforder is mafia.
So yeah, if I'm dead, whoever is alive please gamesolve and don't quicklynch. At least take a week per day phase if you don't want to use all the time.-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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I was wondering if you might be right. Kop's post saying that he can "take one for the team" rang townish and I have doubts about almost every other slot in the game. Doom was the one I never interacted with because he stopped posting right around the time I replaced out and Momo's contribution has been terrible.
I'm mostly hung up on that replace out scumteam guess and his early posts looking somewhat townish with him reading other games. Going to ISO Doom again with knowledge of flips.-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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Okay, you just answered the first question. With outoforder, it's not his "okay with being lynched" post that I'm hesitating on. It's more that he was a driving force behind the early part of D1 in a way I've rarely seen from scum before. His later play and then D2 play eroded that townread a lot. He was all over Hap early in the game. Is that the kind of thing you've seen him fake before with a partner?-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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The Hawk wagon sprung up after you left. You didn't know Hawk was getting lynched until you showed up at deadline and he was at L-1.In post 1895, outoforder wrote:Yeah doom/momo can be mafia.
I never bus. There is no way Hawk gets lynched D1 if i am scum here. You can be sure of that.-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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You had your vote parked on Fitz who wasn't getting lynched and your last post before you left was 1227. Aubrey was at L-2 at that point with no votes on Hawk (see VC in 1230). Then I unvoted after that and pushed Hawk. When you showed up again in 1376 and said you had 10 minutes, Hawk was at L-1. I asked you to hammer and you did.
Saying there's no way Hawk gets lynched D1 if you are scum here feels like you are misrepresenting what actually happened. What exactly were you going to do in the 10 minutes you had to sway the wagon off of Hawk? You were pretty much forced into hammering. There were a couple of hours left to deadline and if somebody else hammered, that would have looked bad.
It also fits into my theory that Hap bussed to score two mislynches on Fitz and Rels. In that case, his partner would be in a decent position and you fit into that profile. I can easily see the two of you bussing Hawk to mislynch people defending him.-
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I don't think I'm underestimating you. I came into the game reading you as obvtown. The Aubrey wagon had a lot more momentum than the Hap wagon at that point so it makes more sense to just let town lynch Aubrey while fishing for cred. You had Hawk as your third scumread and Kop as your second. I think it would be a hard sell to get everyone on Kop in 10 minutes while you had Hawk as a scumread.-
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Yeah, I'm leaning towards it being more likely outoforder than Momo. The way he defended Hap when I invited him to discuss reads just didn't make any sense and felt like a stretch.
Creature is town for more than just that "dumbtell." If you were reading his ISO, you'd see that he spent the vast majority of his time trying to get both Hawk and Hap lynched. KidAmn, I'm townreading mostly for how emotional his reaction was to Hap pushing him. Didn't feel fabricated. Fitz I think is town because he argued against your (Rels) wagon as well as KidAmn's and pushing against two town wagons to lynch his buddy doesn't make sense to me. I also doubt he would scumread a partner and give reasoning like "Rels and outoforder scumread him so that should be taken into consideration." His reasoning for townreading Hawk was the same as mine initially (Hawk's long wall), and he was pretty consistent throughout. If he were indeed townreading Hawk, then I can see him arguing against the lynch. So, that's three people I'm fairly sure are town (Creature, KidAmn, and Fitz).
That leaves you (Rels) who I need to re-read but I'm leaning town, Cass, Kop, Momo, and outoforder. Those reads are roughly in the order of towniest to scummiest.-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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Yeah, 1425 pinged me slightly when I read it but for different reasons. Telling Cass she was disruptive because she was pushing me before Hawk's flip feels manipulative given Cass wouldn't know that I had led a lynch on mafia and would just be arguing for what she thought was best.-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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Okay thanks, I'll look it over when I get a bit more time later on. What do you think of outoforder and Hap's initial interaction D1? outoforder did start out launching a push on Hap which if he doesn't bus would be an outlier. He kept at it until he went V/LA. When he got back, he started on the Fitz push and never pushed Hap again though so that was weird.-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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In 908, he argues against the Rels wagon and strongly takes a stance saying he won't join it. He also townreads KidAmn and Kop (two other potential wagons) and scumreads Creature, Cass, Hap, and you (outoforder). As seen in the VC next post (909), with the stances he's taken, he pretty much set himself up to vote Hap as none of his other scumreads are viable. Why would he argue against a Rels wagon when it was seemingly the only alternative to his buddy Hap?-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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I'm not talking about when he unvoted. I'm talking about the part where he speaks out against the Rels' wagon when it was the only alternative to Hap with less than 2.5 days remaining in the day phase. That pretty much locks him into voting Hap unless unforseen events occur (like me making a hard push on Aubrey). But you are right in that Fitz delays voting Hap a lot though both D1 and D2 so I'll look into it again.-
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Fitz's posts were actually pretty consistent. He was townreading Hawk and scumleaning Aubrey so he was okay with an Aubrey lynch but not with a Hawk one. That worldview makes sense for a town-Fitz to have. Fitz also was okay with a Hap lynch but not with a Rels lynch which also makes sense. The consistent theme here is that Fitz is defending people he was reading as town and being okay with lynching non-townreads. Nothing in that betrays that he's going out of his way to defend scum and mislynch town. He originally townread Hawk because of Hawk's walls - the same ones I initially townread him for, so I don't even find the original Hawk townread to be suspicious in the first place. Now, if he was town and townread Hawk, he obviously wouldn't be voting him and would be looking elsewhere.-
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Yeah, I got through doom's ISO and changed my mind. There are so many newb-towntells there I'm reasonably sure the slot is town.
Isn't there any way we can get momo force-replaced out? It seems really shitty of him to replace into a game that people are taking seriously and decide to not read and basically troll.-
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Reading through D2, I'm feeling more confident that Rels is town. He was actually the first one who brought up Hawk/Hap interactions looking scummy. I touch on them before that but I haven't yet voted Hap at that point. I'll post updated thoughts once I finish.
@Outoforder - are you here? I need to log off for a bit but I'll be back in around 20-30 minutes. Feel free to info-dump and I'll engage with your content when I get back.
Pedit: okay, I'll read that when I get back in half an hour.-
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Okay I'm back. Took longer than expected.
@outoforder, you made some good points on Fitz. I do want him to explain why he moved to Kop as opposed to moving back to Hap when his reads dictated that Hap should be his preferred choice. In fact, there were more votes on Hap than Kop at the time he voted.
There are several other things I'm hung up on though: Fitz suspects Hap primarily because you and Rels suspected him and he thought the meta should be taken into account. I don't get why he would do this if it was meta on a buddy. He'd be giving you and Rels cred for the Hap flip when he could have taken it for himself. But I can see a town-Fitz thinking that you and Rels being confident on Hap-scum might have some validity and factoring that into his read. I also think the questions he asked like whether you or Rels ever mislynched Hap were odd things to ask a buddy. Hap's response (that you haven't) lends even more credibility to Hap being scum and it was a question Fitz could have asked Hap in the scum thread and then simply refrained from asking in public.
Fitz voted Hap with over a week left during D1, that's true. But it was still a building wagon and it seemed like there was a decent chance that Hap would get lynched. He passed up several opportunities to lynch town in order to put down that vote.
I'm also curious about why Hap would bus Hawk when he did (the reason you were so convinced he was town D2) instead of either not showing up or just pushing Kop hard and then using Hawk to nightkill me. At the time I was pushing hard on a Hawk/Fitz/Rels team so one explanation I could think of was that he wanted to bus so he could get those mislynches next. If he was partnered with Fitz, it seems very uncoordinated of them for Fitz to defend Hawk and Hap to bus although I could see the two of you (outoforder and Hap) deciding that a last minute bus of Hawk would get you two enough towncred to go to endgame which fits your D2 behavior of insisting that Hap's vote meant he was town and then pushing Fitz and Rels. If you could get those mislynches and nightkill me and Creature, that would get you to mylo so I see a potential winning gameplan there. I'm not sure what Hap and Fitz would have been planning.-
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Why are Creature and Cassielle where they are? I'd interchange them. The hard townread on Cassielle is pretty weird actually.In post 2006, outoforder wrote:I literally don't think anyone can be mafia except for fitz. If he would flip town i am completely lost. If i had to do something after that, i would lynch (in this order):
momo - creature - rels - BV - cassielle/KidAmn-
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I wasn't including me in the list. I obviously think I'm the towniest but I may be biased. My list from towniest to scummiest would be:
Creature, KidAmn, Rels, Doom/Momo // Fitz, Cass, outoforder.
The first four I'm pretty sure are town. The Momo read might need explaining but it's 100% based off of Doom's newb-towntells and the fact that Momo just seems like lynchbait. If I'm wrong about you, Cass and Fitz are where I'd look. I was fairly confident Fitz was town but you made some good points so I want to do another re-read on him.-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2725
- Joined: September 15, 2016
Creature isn't a player who will hard-push lynches and make elaborate cases. His "pushes" on Hap and Hawk D1 are the extent I'd expect him to push. He also has good intuition as town and from a couple of scumgames I've skimmed, is reluctant to bus as scum. He stayed pretty firm in his Hap and Hawk suspicions throughout D1, voted Hawk when he had the option to vote Kop, and took a strong stance on voting Hap over Fitz D2.-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2725
- Joined: September 15, 2016
Actually the NK made me think it was probably you. Consider for a minute: who has the motivation to make a "weird nk" right now? When there's a weird nk, it usually points to either someone widely townread being mafia, or someone widely scumread who needs several more lynches to win and needs to break up a "townbloc" being mafia. If one of Creature, or KidAmn were mafia, they could have shot the other and me to get to mylo. In that worldview, Kop was pretty much a free mislynch in addition to you and Momo. I doubt Cass makes that nk since she could just shoot from players who are more "obviously" town than her and make it to lylo easy. I can't comment on what kills Momo may or may not make. That leaves you, Fitz, and Rels. I think Fitz might want to leave me alive because I was townreading him towards the end of D2 and might support a push on you. I think Rels may want me alive since he'd want to count on my support while pushing your lynch. I think you'd want me alive because if you kill me, that leaves the field clear for Rels to lynch you D3. If you kill Rels, it's likely I'd push a lynch on you D3. So, you'd be in a conundrum. Either me or Rels could push your lynch so your safest bet would be a "gambit" where you leave both of us alive and cause paranoia among everyone that something is off.
After the events of D2, you were the most likely lynch the following day. So, you had the most motivation to "shake things up" and make people second-guess themselves. For everyone else, Kop was a free mislynch. You were the only player (besides maybe Momo) who was likely to be lynchedbeforeKop. There's also the possibility you expect Rels to townread you for the kill which you keep insisting.-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2725
- Joined: September 15, 2016
I was probably unclear. What I was saying was: if anybody else was mafia, Kop would have been one of their mislynches on the road to a win. You were the only person to whom this didn't apply because there's more than a decent chance you get lynched before Kop and the game ends. So, you'd have to make a kill that changes the gamestate and makes everyone rethink all their reads. A Kop kill does that.In post 2025, outoforder wrote:What does it matter if i get lynched before or after Kop?-
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2725
- Joined: September 15, 2016
I was the only person even listening to you though. If you shoot me, nothing changes. Rels would lead the lynch on you and Fitz would happily join in. You've already alienated Cass and KidAmn so they'd be unlikely to stick their necks out to save you and one of the lurkers would finish the job. Killing me N2 pretty much assures you'll get lynched D3.In post 2025, outoforder wrote:If that is the case i would 100% take the risk to shoot you on N2 considering the state the game is at.
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