Open 674: Duck Duck Goose [Game Over]

[outoforder]

Oh no it's probably just the other thing....

[cassielle]

hey if you gotta lynch me today to have better reads tomorrow go for it, seriously
ive lost interest in the game, im confident remaining town can gamesolve, im not really contributing anymore which is mucking up the reads, etc

and rels, i answered bv when he asked me that
also im not pushing for any particular lynch, im just prod-dodging in a game relevant way (by posting my thoughts) tbh
if you disagree with them, cool. ill do what bv wants regardless of what he wants, seriously

[BlackVoid]

I'm not sure where the apathy is coming from though. I'd expect town in your place to be proud of the fact that you correctly scumread Hap D1. But you are using your "semi-wrongness" in order to coast.

What I want is for everyone to participate so we can lynch right today and end the game. I've been reading and re-reading this game and constantly thinking about it and hitting dead-ends. I need someone to offer a fresh perspective.

[cassielle]

I'm not sure where the apathy is coming from though. I'd expect town in your place to be proud of the fact that you correctly scumread Hap D1. But you are using your "semi-wrongness" in order to coast.

What I want is for everyone to participate so we can lynch right today and end the game. I've been reading and re-reading this game and constantly thinking about it and hitting dead-ends. I need someone to offer a fresh perspective.

cant talk about the reasons for my apathy, they partially have to do with ongoing game(s) (not specifically this one)

im constantly re-evaluating and posting my thoughts as i have them but thats all i can do on that front. if those arent a fresh perspective then i cant really help you there -- those are genuinely considered reads and thoughts and i dont really have the motivation to do more

[BlackVoid]

Creature (or anyone with like over 10 games of experience on this site):
How likely it is that mafia would try to "derail" a D1 lynch on their partner into a no-lynch by making a case on another partner of theirs? Basically do no-lynches happen, and if yes, how often, in IML games (D1)?

@outoforder, what was this referring to?

[momo]

hey if you gotta lynch me today to have better reads tomorrow go for it, seriously
ive lost interest in the game, im confident remaining town can gamesolve, im not really contributing anymore which is mucking up the reads, etc

and rels, i answered bv when he asked me that
also im not pushing for any particular lynch, im just prod-dodging in a game relevant way (by posting my thoughts) tbh
if you disagree with them, cool. ill do what bv wants regardless of what he wants, seriously

This is fake. Would rather lynch fitz but this post is almost 100% fake.

[BlackVoid]

Now it seems like several people are pulling the "I'm fine getting lynched" gambit. I don't know why Cass would be okay with getting lynched though. With all the focus on outoforder and Fitz, a mislynch outside that pool will only stagnate the game and we have the same situation tomorrow. I'm not against looking outside the duo but only if I think I'm lynching scum. From Cass's standpoint, her own lynch would be a guaranteed mislynch though so it doesn't make sense.

[momo]

I am honestly fine lynching cass. In fact....

[momo]

VOTE: Cassielle

[BlackVoid]

Reading over HavingFitz's ISO in Mini 1843, the quality of his analysis is much, much better than here. He talks in extensive detail about how wagons formed and his conclusions from there. The case on outoforder here didn't resonate with me as much. The push on Hap D2 also wasn't particularly strong.

[BlackVoid]

I haven't read anything since my last post. I'm not sure what the vote count is but:

VOTE: hapa

I'd vote OoO but I do not feel I have had time to summarize my suspicions of him properly. We have a lot of time left in the day so if people want to wait I can promise Monday. Otherwise...(AtE alert! AtE alert!)

I feel I am going to be in defense mode for the entirety of my time left in this game so it might be better for town to just push through the lynch on me while there are mislynches to spare.

Whatever you all (town) decide works for me.

The bolded part seemed really genuine though. I also think the Aubrey kill points slightly towards not-Fitz since they spent the entirety of D1 mutually pushing each other. I'll have to look at the timeline again but I have a hard time seeing Fitz pass up on the chances to mislynch Rels/KidAmn instead of Hap. However, Fitz never at any point felt like he was pushing hard on his suspects or lobbying for votes.

D2 where Fitz and Hap wait for everyone to vote them before cross-voting each other is odd and I'm not sure what to make of it yet.

I also wonder what Hap's gameplan was to show up end of day one and bus Hawk when I was loudly calling out Fitz and Rels as Hawk's partners. He would have known that Fitz looks terrible from a Hawk lynch and that he would likely have to bus Fitz as well if it goes through. But if neither Fitz nor Rels are his partners, bussing makes sense because he gets two mislynches.

[cassielle]

thinking that momo is indeed a troll or maybe scum, nothing is fake about that post of mine rofl
maybe need to doublecheck creatures thoughts on the momo slot?

heres my thought process, bv, its p simple:
1: town can afford a mislynch
2: im not contributing much despite the best efforts i can muster up atm
3: im apparently creating noise in your reads despite saying "lead and i shall follow"

from this its clear that:
1: mislynching me isnt gamethrowing
2: mislynching me will increase density of content
3: mislynching me will give you better reads over all (from associatives or w/e, from known-alignment, and from a better signal-to-noise ratio)

theres also the possibility of you just ignoring me and finding a diff lynchtarget
but if im pinging you that much then thats not (from your point of view) pro-town, thats (from your point of view, again) letting potential scum coast
so im accepting of my lynch as pro-town in the long run. its possibly helpful to town to lynch me. i dont see why thats so hard to understand

[cassielle]

EBWOP ftr, before someone starts blatant misrep again: idc about the vote. just momos reasons for it.

im comfortable being a lynch target, i am not comfortable with people using a bs excuse to choose me as that target

[havingfitz]

Reading over HavingFitz's ISO in Mini 1843, the quality of his analysis is much, much better than here.

BV...that was a game where I replaced in late on D4 that I had 3100+ posts and 3 nks to work with. I would hope any analysis I made there would be much much better than in early stages of this game.

[BlackVoid]

But even now, you don't talk about a lot of things like the D1 wagons and people's stances on them in much detail. You don't seem very sure outoforder is scum considering you have backup suspects so I'd expect a more thorough analysis of them. You also weren't a major factor in getting Hap lynched D2, why? You had him as a scumread but there was no push to get him lynched and your vote was one of the last on his wagon.

[BlackVoid]

How do you miss that it was five to lynch anyway when you keep spreadsheets of votes and never miss a single vote?

[BlackVoid]

UNVOTE: Hapahauli
Shit i have to reconsider this.

What sparked this unvote? Hap's explanation in 176 didn't bring up any new information.

[havingfitz]

How do you miss that it was five to lynch anyway when you keep spreadsheets of votes and never miss a single vote?

1) I had not updated my spreadsheet yet that morning so I took OoO's "I'm voting Fitz" post as accurate (no surprise it wasn't) and 2) even if I had been looking at my spreadsheets they're not set up in any way that automatically makes it clear what lynch requirements are for any given day. I quite often have to count rows to figure out for myself. I usually do not even pay attention to mod VCs because I use my own. That's why the 3 L-4 listings in the mod vc that morning just sunk 4 in my head. It's not a mistake I make very often. I genuinely did think I had been lynched.

[havingfitz]

"count rows"
EBWOP
Should read "count columns"

[havingfitz]

But even now, you don't talk about a lot of things like the D1 wagons and people's stances on them in much detail. You don't seem very sure outoforder is scum considering you have backup suspects so I'd expect a more thorough analysis of them. You also weren't a major factor in getting Hap lynched D2, why? You had him as a scumread but there was no push to get him lynched and your vote was one of the last on his wagon.

The earlier it is in the game the less likely I am to jump up and down on anyone's guilt or innocence. I will state my opinion and stick to it but I rarely try to rally the troops to a particular position. Why? Inherent doubt that I may be wrong (which in the case of mislynches really pisses me off) and lessening of association with mistakes to be used against me (regardless of my alignment). Getting it wrong and saying my bad never goes over well with me.

I.e. I'm not typically a heavy pusher. My pushes tend to get stronger the more I have to work with....later in games.

[BlackVoid]

Can you talk more about your reads other than outoforder? Specifically, your thoughts on Cass and Momo's slot as a whole as well as your updated read on Creature would be nice.

[Creature]

Hi sorry.

[Creature]

So are you all considering your reads on momo?

[Creature]

tbh if it's not momo idk who it is.

outoforder is just a fear.

havingfitz still looks somewhat engaged (unlike scum!him).

[BlackVoid]

I'll consider it if you talk about it a bit more.