Mini 527 - Doom in Valencia - Game Over!

[Javert]

Bonjour!

I am replacing Archaist. I shall read the game tout de suite.

[Javert]

First things first.

Mod

, what kind of Godfather was Dead Rikimaru / Sikario8? Did he have investigative immunity? Nightkill immunity? Something else?

Based on the information in the front post that Guardian was a Townie and Dead Rikimaru / Sikario8 was a (the) Godfather, my gut was telling me through Day One (alphabetically):

Likely Town

neko2086
gorckat

Middle

Arakorn (McStab)
Gorgon (Deathguise)
MeMe
Pra a Funkee Homo Sapien (Sammich)

Scummy

mikeburnfire [SirWario (The Jester)]
soupfly (vellon)
Tarhalindur (Selande)

~~~~~

Naturally, my view on Tarhalindur has just completely flipped itself. His actions at the end of yesterday – which were to protest the Dead Rikimaru lynch and to vote Guardian (townie) certainly did not look good to me, as well as his list of three players he thought were scum: {neko2086, Archaist (me), and gorckat}. Seeing as how I thought both neko2086 and gorckat were town, and I know I am town,

everything

he was doing seemed completely wrong.

Although that still weighs on my mind, I will give him the benefit of the doubt today for a few very simple reasons.

1.)

He has claimed mod-confirmed sanity as a Cop. This means that he has absolutely no way to backtrack if MeMe comes up innocent.

2.)

He has claimed to be part of a Masonry – and not just any Masonry, but a mod-confirmed innocent Masonry. This means that if Tarhalindur were lying, he would be banking on not

only

there not being a Cop, but

also

in there not being a Masonry.

3.)

If

he is lying, the town is not put very far back from one mislynch. Assuming this game has 3 mafia and no other scum (although it is too early to tell if that is the case), the town already has a substantial lead in that the GF is dead, and we have only lost a townie. The town loses little by playing a war of attrition: if we trade town for scum at a 1:3 ratio, we still win the game.

4.)

We can be absolutely sure that at least one of {Tarhalindur, MeMe} is scum. Of the two, the more useful role to keep alive if one of them is town would undoubtedly be Tarhalindur.

I will vote MeMe after I feel we have had enough discussion. I also agree that at this time, I do not feel it is necessary for Tar's Mason partner (should one exist) to claim.

[Javert]

Your concern is noted, but with the current state of the town -- that being a dead Godfather and a dead Townie -- I find it difficult to believe any faction besides the town is "close to winning".

[Javert]

Merveilleux. This is why one should hold off voting until discussion is finished. I would have liked to have more thoughts, and been able to read the thread more thoroughly before a lynch formally occurred.

Tip for tomorrow

: If Tarhalindur and his mason partner (should he have one) are both alive tomorrow with an innocent investigation, I would suggest

against

revealing it for the following reasons:

1.)

The investigation will likely not be "lost" even if Tarhalindur is killed, since the result will also be known to his partner.

2.)

We may lose valuable information about what people think of the innocent player. (In this respect, I also believe the guilty result on MeMe should have been staved off a while longer, since doing so would have been infinitely more informative).

3.)

If necessary, Tarhalindur could reveal his result at any time

if

he feels that innocent player is in danger of being lynched.

[Javert]

Dismounts from high horse, and brushes off epaulets casually.

Well, with a lack of a nightkill the we now have

four

lynches instead of simply

three

, so if we are dealing with a mafia group of three then I imagine it would be incredibly difficult to lose this game.

I will note offhand that there is a slight possibility we have eliminated the mafia, and could be dealing with some other scum group, such as a Cult. If that were the case, however, I would think the game to be practically lost given that a Cult would have had two chances to recruit by now, and the only thing which could possibly save us in that situation would be if the leader had failed to recruit (by being role-blocked, or trying to recruit some other type of scum).

However, I will at this time play as if there were a third mafiate, since that seems the most likely of the two scenarios. I will try to read the thread over again and see if there are not people who have connections to both Dead Rikimaru and MeMe.

[Javert]

I am actually prone to voting MBF at this point; the votes on Arakorn from Day One (specifically MeMe's push at the end of Day One) is enough for me to list him as neutral. I

would

, however, like Arakorn to talk more; he has not made an impact me either in terms of towniness or scumminess that I can recall.

I will list out my reasons for wanting to vote MBF later, and if at that time I still believe the case against him looks legitimate (since sometimes my feelings change after an in-depth reread), that is where my vote will go.

Note to soupfly: I would not use the 'rocket of death' on somebody unless you are willing to Vig them. Given that both Tarhalindur and neko2086 can confirm your night-choices, and I find the plausibility of a Scum Inventor very slim (especially after we have seen one dead 'mafia goon'), I am thinking you are very likely to be town.

Vote count;

Arakorn (1) Gorckat

Not voting; Everyone else

[Javert]

If it turns out to be the case that neither MBF nor Gorgon are scum,

and

Tarhalindur dies overnight so that he cannot confirm me as an innocent, I am afraid I will not be able to acquiesce with being lynched tomorrow. I have

never

been lynched while I am pro-town, and I don't mean for it to happen in this game either.

It seems incredibly unwise to simply discount two unconfirmed players from even

possibly

being lynched for the entire duration of a game based on a relatively short two game days of playing: there is no reason the town should be so willing to risk throwing the game when it is difficult to imagine a better position to be in.

I am not

so

confident that neko2086 and gorckat are town that I am willing to risk losing the game based on the possibility of being wrong.

Additionally, I am not even so sure that Gorgon is as 'scummy' as many of you are trying to portray; reading his posts, he seems to share some of the same worries I also had concerning Tarhlindur's initial claim (although I clearly find no reason to fault it at this point in time).

I will point out that the town does not 'gain' a lynch by using the 'rocket of doom' tonight; right now, there are four lynches available to us (assuming singular nightkills). This plan allows for three lynches and a vig kill. Both scenarios result in the town deciding four deaths.

Given that, it might be wiser to see if soupfly can use one of his

other

inventions to gain more

information

instead of doing something the town can already do (kill a player via lynch).

[Javert]

Please let's not speculate about the existence / non-existence of Doctors.

I think I am going to throw out a slightly different suggestion. Although I

do

agree soupfly should try to gain information if possible (as I noted above), I am not sure it is wise to publicize all the night actions. Publicizing night actions only means that the scum can with 100% accuracy decide on what strategy will best suit their interests; if we keep it hidden who Tarhalindur investigates, as well as who soupfly uses his ability (whatever ability he chooses) on, then the town loses little to nothing.

The only possible "loss" with this plan is if soupfly is killed and we have no way of discerning who he targeted. However, we

do

know that his previous two night choices were made very clear to the people being targeted, so I imagine the same will be true of his other inventions as well - so I am inclined to think that "losing information" with this set-up is nearly impossible. Even if we

did

lose exactly what soupfly's action was, in that situation Tarhalindur would still be alive

and

have an investigation to use, which still results in more information than we would otherwise receive by publicizing night actions.

[Javert]

I am more inclined to believe the forged money printer was a way to

track

players.

Actually, I did receive a pm from Jenter saying something like I wake up and find a counterfeit money printer outside my house and I put it in my shed. I almost said something about it, but I figured it was just a really strange way to say "it's now D2."

Since neko2086 was alerted about the printer as day opened, he could not have "used" it during the night. Additionally, you were only told that he did not "leave his house" -- this means that he did not take a night-action Night Two. If he were mafia and MeMe were his partner, if MeMe conducted the kill on Night Two and neko2086 did nothing, you would have gotten the exact same result that neko2086 did not leave his house.

I will take this time to note, however, that of all the unconfirmed players neko2086 is probably highest on my town list, but it would be remiss of me not to point that out.

[Javert]

^ That should say "Night One" in place of "Night Two".

[Javert]

I am not sure I can agree with your post, neko2086.

Reading back on MeMe's posts, it is fairly clear that when MeMe voted for Pra a Funkee Homo Sapien in Post 384, her vote was made at a time where it was very likely that Pra was

not

going to be lynched due to a lack of votes near deadline. If there was distancing going on, that is precisely when scum

will

distance because the risk is minimal.

When she voted Arakorn in Post 331, however, it was at a time where lynching Arakorn was possibility, and that was in fact the purpose of her vote. The context of the votes sometimes matter more than the presence of the votes themselves.

It is also faulty to assume that a mafiate will take the same stances on all of their partners. I am positive you have seen games where mafia members protect one partner, and bus the other; or protect one, and ignore the other; or some other combination of different types of interactions with one's partners. Claiming that MeMe's strategy the whole game was to "ignore her partners" because she generally did not comment on Sikario8 is not a valid extrapolation.

[Javert]

^ Although it has the correct link, the Pra a Funkee Homo Sapien vote should read "Post 284" instead of "Post 384".

At this time, I will request that if the town finds it necessary to have me killed presently or in the future and I cannot persuade you to do otherwise, I would infinitely prefer being Vigged with the 'rocket of doom' over being lynched. I am

that

serious about refusing to be lynched as town.

[Javert]

Instead of reading all 500 pages, would you mind at least outlining some reasons for the gorckat vote?

~~~~~

I will point out that my latest posts are clearly not outlining concerns coming solely from

me

-- Gorgon, mikeburnfire, and to some extent, Arakorn, have echoed them. Despite the four of us being 'unconfirmed',

at least

three of us are pro-town. As such, you can be sure our worries are quite

legitimate

, and should not be dismissed as quickly as you appear to be dismissing them. Instead of reading our concerns as "they are more likely to be scum" (which it appears neko2086, Tarhalindur, and gorckat are doing), I implore you to instead think how the game looks from

our

positions, and what our thoughts would naturally be concerning the players who are essentially being written off as 'town' without any confirmation. The point of mafia is to upturn every stone for critical examination, not say "this one looks okay" and leave it lying there.

As it happens, I am actually starting to second-guess my earlier assessment of mikeburnfire being the best lynch, but I will reserve judgment until after he explains his gorckat vote.

[Javert]

soupfly, you were supposed to try to gain information

last night

, and use the 'Rocket of Death'

tonight

. Now if you have an invention that is investigative in nature, we will not know the results if you die tonight. We have gained absolutely nothing by your using the 'Rocket of Death' last night. Also, I would have

much

preferred if you had used the 'Rocket of Death' on me so I don't have to worry about being lynched. *sigh*

In any case, it is pretty clear that the scum has to be one of {neko2086, gorckat, Arakorn} -- I refuse to believe a Mafia Inventor who can kill twice in the same night. I have my preferences on who I believe to town (neko2086), but there is no sense in ignoring a salient possibility. Although I personally doubt neko2086 is mafia, I will point out for my sense of completeness that he is not "cleared" -- the only information soupfly technically received was that neko2086 made no actions on Night One. However, I think that that -- combined with his attitudes and actions towards both Sikario8 and MeMe -- make him extremely likely to be town, but not "cleared" in any strict sense.

It is apparent that players do not have the

option

of "choosing" to use the inventions soupfly sends out -- they simply have effects on players. The money forger gave a tracking result on neko2086; the bus role-blocked (at the very least) Tarhalindur; and the Rocket of Doom killed mikeburnfire. None of them had the option to "use" or "not use" these items.

~~~~~

I am a Townie. I strongly suggest not having such a fast day as yesterday -- in particular, I do not understand why everybody voted Gorgon so quickly. Tarhalindur made it clear that he wanted to

read the game again to make sure he liked his vote

, but everybody seemed to interpret his vote as the end-all of discussion -- something I would

discourage

doing again.

[Javert]

Telling us he's town over and over again doesn't make it true, and his story about not wanting to be lynched as a townie is an emotional appeal that makes me very uneasy.

1.)

My statement "I am a Townie" was in response to soupfly's calling for a Doctor claim; I was essentially claiming "Not Doctor". Since there is no point in trying to "hide" my role at this point, however, I simply claimed my full role instead of saying the just as 'unhelpful' "Not Doctor". I am positive Arakorn claiming Townie was in the exact same context.

2.)

If you are 'uneasy' with me for those reasons, you ought to do a background check on me. I am very upfront about being town, as well as the fact that I have never been lynched as town -- and I am upfront about this when I am both town and scum. I can cite several examples of this if you would like, but you will have to give me time to peruse my old games and find specific examples.

[Javert]

@javert: self metagaming takes us into WIFOM territory...cut it out, its not helping your case.

The only complaint against me that I have seen and can tangibly rebut is that I call myself town, and that I am pointing out I have never been lynched as town.

The only response I can give -- and it is a true response which you can verify yourself -- is that this is how I act whether I am town or scum.

As such,

this is not WIFOM

. WIFOM is when somebody claims something along the following lines:

If I were scum, I would do X.

What I am claiming is that I do X

regardless of my alignment

-- I am not making an argument for my alignment either way, but instead showing that those particular "points" against me ought not to be points against me, given how I play.

If you still believe this to be WIFOM, please give me your definition of it, and then show I fit into your definition.

~~~~~

My initial reaction to gorckat's vote is that he is showing a continual habit of not explaining his votes up-front; he gives himself plenty of time to think of reasons later, which makes it all the more difficult to gauge the sincerity of his votes. In particular, this is reminding me of his Day One neko2086, where he voted, did not explain, then vaguely averred "I've seen a handful of inconsistencies/things not jiving for me", and then after

other

players started attacking neko2086, he began using those using those reasons in the justification of his own vote. I don't believe he ever added his own commentary on his vote for at least two weeks.

[Javert]

Hmm.

FoS: gorckat

, that is a prime scum tactic, and one I have personally used before. Essentially, the tactic is as follows:

1.)

Determine how many lynches you need to win.

2.)

Then decide who you will lynch in order to achieve that number.

3.)

To choose the

order

of who to lynch, start with those players who are

hardest

to lynch, so that the endgame will give you as much leeway as possible.

4.)

Even if you fail to get that player lynched, you can still revert back to the easier lynched, hopefully having successfully discredited the more difficult player so endgame will not be

as

difficult as it was previously.

I will not be voting or coming to any firm conclusions until after I have had time to read the game, and ask questions. Feel free to respond to this post, though.

[Javert]

^ Additionally, if you are voting me on the basis that Arakorn is the easier lynch tomorrow, then your explanation of "gut" really does not apply as a justification to your vote.

Gut is something tingly inside you that makes you think a player is more likely to be scum -- not something that makes you think somebody will be easier or more difficult to lynch.

[Javert]

Trying to find some extra time to reread this game. I will analyze gorckat, Arakorn, and neko2086 separately, in that order. I will not be analyzing soupfly since – as I mentioned before – I will not believe the existence of a mafia inventor who can kill twice on the same night (or would have chosen to role-block Tarhalindur without also killing on that same night).

Note

: I will be gone this Thursday until approximately Sunday.

~~~~~

gorckat

~~ To understand the commentary I give, I would highly suggest clicking the links provided, reading the relevant posts, and then reading my commentary. ~~

The first post 'of note' that I could distinguish was Post 70, where he places the third vote on Archaist (now me) with no explanation. This strikes me more as a gameplay indicator than an alignment indicator.

However, Post 83 has a vote which appears to be stemming from faulty logic (although it may have been done to make a 'point'). The relevant part is this:

Situations in which MeMe could be scum:

One situation, possibly two others

Situations in which soupfly could be scum:

Three situations

If there are more concrete situations where soupfly could be scum than concrete situations where MeMe could be scum, it would make more sense for gorckat to have voted

soupfly

instead of MeMe. This could be potential distancing, and the 'best' sort – there is no way anybody could 'follow' gorckat onto MeMe based on that particular line of logic, but gorckat still gets a 'reasoned' vote against MeMe in the process. Unless he was being facetious, though, he did claim that "his last two votes have been very well thought out" (those being the Archaist and MeMe votes).

Post 99 seems somewhat contrary to the attitude gorckat has been displaying. He claims to be deliberately ignoring questions, but then questions others. Granted, I can agree with "playing with one's cards close to one's chest", but after having MeMe-scum endorse that strategy this game, it could have been an indirect 'defense' of gorckat's posting (in that her saying as much would get others to think better of gorckat's posts than they otherwise would be, without MeMe having to use gorckat's name in such a way that he would seem connected to her).

Another unexplained vote in Post 120 on SirWario, which appears to have an explanation in Post 122, namely "you should have commented more", which is at the very least ironic considering gorckat's lack of commentary up to this point of the game.

A conversation takes place between MeMe and gorckat from Post 132 to Post 135. I've read it through a couple times now, and I've decided it is not indicative of gorckat's alignment either way, but this is the longest conversation between these two that I have seen thus far.

NOTE: It would probably be worth the effort to read this section of the game – namely, starting from page 6/7 – in the view that scum (if they were paying attention) were probably becoming frustrated with their partner, Sikario8. He was making some particularly bad posts, such as Post 128, Post 141, Post 143, Post 163, etc. In my opinion, it is likely that at this point in time, Sikario8's partners would try to pay Sikario8 as little attention as possible, in hopes that others would not push him too hard given his latest posting. I think we can say MeMe, at the very least, did exactly this in her Post 147.

Another unexplained vote in Post 151, this time on neko2086. He gives a vague reasoning in Post 158, and ends his post asking yet

another

player (Archaist) to explain

their

vote while gorckat does the exact opposite. MeMe joins in attacking Archaist in the very next post.

When neko2086 argues that MeMe's vote on RideTheBomb may have been unreasonable, gorckat offers a weak defense in Post 181.

****

My biggest question so far

: It seems pretty clear that at this interval of the game, Sikario8 was doing a good deal of stupid things. Objectively, I would think that – given his posting style which appears in this game – gorckat would have gone after him or voted him (likely without reasons) by this point. Gorckat, can you explain if there was a particular reason you did not vote Sikario8 around this time?

A conversation between gorckat and Sikario8 occurs from Post 193 to about Post 197, where gorckat explains his reasons for voting neko2086. His reasons were as follows:

1.)

"I voted neko because he seemed to say one thing and do another a few times".
-->

Note:

This is unsupported by itself.

2.)

"soupfly pointed out his blandness and hesitancy to voice suspicion, which I'd seen but couldn't verbalize (it was an unconscious cue/read on my part)."
-->

Note:

This reasoning came from soupfly in Post 184.

3.)

"You've caught another inconsistency of the same character as the ones that made me vote him"
-->

Note:

This reasoning came from Sikario8 in Post 196

So far, then, all of gorckat's reasons have come from somebody else first.

Sikario8's Post 203 is a bit confusing, in that he gives gorckat "+5 town points" for saying nothing which has not been said before.

We have a defense for his unexplained neko2086 vote in Post 212. He falls back on the question "Do you expect each vote to have original reasons to back it up?". I think the answer is

yes

, especially if you are the first person to vote somebody.

****

Question

: When you are the first person to vote somebody, would you agree that you ought to have original reasons?
****

Question

: Now that it is later in the game, for what reasons did you choose not to

explain

your 'reasons' early in the game?

Finally get an elaboration in Post 220. This is actually a good post – the only

problem

is that there is no way of telling whether or not gorckat

actually

had these reasons in mind when he voted neko2086, or if he compiled them during the long period he had to think of reasoning. He tosses in another reason in Post 246.

An explanation for the Archaist vote Post 273, which is precisely how I would expect

anybody

to explain that particular vote (i.e. for bandwagon/pressure reasons).

Okay, I have to leave for dinner, I just finished reading up to page 11 under the gorckat analysis. I will try to finish when I can find time.

[Javert]

gorckat, the purpose of my last post is both for myself and others; I am pointing out all things I find especially notable about you. My post is not strictly a 'case' on you -- if I find something I think looks particularly protown about a post of yours (or a protown habit I have noticed), I will point it out and take it into consideration. If you feel I am not being thorough or not representing you correctly, please point that out.

When I can find time (not sure when that will be -- I will be disgustingly busy this week), I will finish my analysis. And then I will do an analysis on Arakorn. And then I will do an analysis on neko2086. Depending on how many things I find worthy of note, those two analysis might be just as long as the one I have partially done on you. The length of posts has nothing to do with anything: I am somewhat infamous for having long posts, and that is just the way I play.

I would prefer for this game to be won in the cleanest fashion possible -- I would like to lynch scum

today

and have the game over with. To do that, I need to decide who I think is the most likely person to be scum, and to do

that

I need to analyze all of my options and choose the best of them. If you have an alternate method of making this decision, feel free to enlighten me.

[Javert]

Note:

I will be away from tomorrow (Thursday) until Sunday, likely without access to a computer.

I also do not believe I will have time to finish my gorckat analysis tonight, given I have papers to write tonight which need to be turned in early tomorrow morning.

[Javert]

Back from competition, I plan on finishing my gorckat analysis by the end of the week. I would ask that players not get impatient with this game; I would rather take the time to make sure we win than to lose because we were not thinking things through.

[Javert]

gorckat, continued

Starts off this half of the reread by voting for Gorgon based on Gorgon's Post #255, from what I can garner. Two things to note about this. Firstly, gorckat had posted three times (Posts #262, 267, and 273) before voting for Gorgon. This suggests to me that something occurred during that time-frame which made gorckat look at Gorgon specifically... which brings me to the second to note. During this time period was when the deadline for Day One was dropped (Post #268). This pushes me towards thinking gorckat's vote for Gorgon may have been influenced by the placement of a deadline. I have nothing against placing votes after deadline have been placed (obviously), but the lack of acknowledging Gorgon

until

the deadline was placed is what pushes me towards thinking this is more scummish than townish.

gorckat has a small conversation with Gorgon (over why Gorgon is not voting for Sikario8), and gorckat comes to his voting ultimatum in Post #297, narrowing his choices down to Gorgon, SirWario, and Sikario8 (though he does mention he sees the case on Pra which MeMe had just made prior to his post). Nothing wrong with this. Switches to SirWario (no reasons cited) in Post #314.

Blanket explanation for votes in Post #318. Probably a good post to keep in mind while assessing gorckat.

Unvotes SirWario to vote for soupfly in Post #327, no reasoning provided – and notably,

soupfly was not on gorckat's list of three suspects

. Arakorn posts, and gorckat FoS's him (for not having suspicions, from what I can gather). MeMe comes in to push a separate bandwagon on Arakorn in her Post #331. I will note at this junction that this is a fairly common scum-tactic; if gorckat is scum, MeMe would naturally push a different wagon: this would give the town

two

possible wrong wagons to hop aboard on, both of them being wagons

away

from Sikario8/DR.

Important Section:

neko2086 correctly calls out gorckat for his voting inconsistency in Post #332. gorckat responds. I think it reasonable to say gorckat was under some pressure at this moment in time (seeing that he knew he had deviated from his suspicions list), and then Arakorn raises the pressure in Post #341 by voting for gorckat, putting him at the second most highest number of votes (just below soupfly). gorckat then votes for Arakorn for "taking the easy way out" (strange, since soupfly was the "easier" way out).

It definitely looks like gorckat was floundering around on Page 14 in general once pressure starts to be applied to him. He then takes the simplest path to salvation; Guardian pops in to votes for Dead Rikimaru, and gorckat is perfectly happy voting for him in the very next post.

Contrary to what a good number of players think, this vote – more than any of the others on Dead Rikimaru – looks like the most likely to have been a bussing vote. gorckat was under considerable pressure (which he may have been afraid would turn into a bandwagon), so it would only be natural to vote out a partner who basically being

useless

the entire game. This would (of course) give gorckat substantially more leeway later in the game, since he could from thereon point that he had helped lynch the Godfather.

Also Important

: Even after gorckat had voted for DR, the posts can be read in such a way that MeMe and gorckat may have been trying to coordinate themselves into both voting for Arakorn (which would only work if they got others to vote for Arakorn so they would look justified also voting for him). In Post #349 and Post #351, MeMe explains why she is still voting for Arakorn. gorckat then poked at Arakorn a couple times in Post #356 and Post #359.

Deadline then hits without players having switched to Arakorn.

~~~~~~

The very first post of Day Two belongs to gorckat, he suggests that people start looking at votes, which is of course only going to make himself look better seeing as he had just helped lynch to Godfather.

Tarhalindur does his "lock on" in Post #379. Unfortunately we do not get immediate feedback from gorckat on this matter due to one his dogs dying (explained in Post #413). MeMe then lynches herself, and that's all she wrote. There is some posting after MeMe's self-lynching, but none of it includes gorckat.

Hard to tell exactly if gorckat's post indicates anything either way. MeMe's ending the day so quickly certainly had the effect of making Day Two pretty much useless in terms of scumhunting.

~~~~~

gorckat continues from his Day One comments in voting for Arakorn in Post #447. He then claims to have not remembered MeMe pushing for Arakorn in Post #452. Unfortunately, I do not think this is a tell either way: from what I understand, this whole

game

has been slow, and it is easy to forget things which happened months ago (although his not remembering

does

indicate that gorckat had not done a reread for some time).

gorckat unvotes in Post #459 to decide between Gorgon and Arakorn. Agrees with the "lynch Gorgon, vig MBF" plan in Post #466, effectively adding MBF to his pool. gorckat then extends his pool to include myself in Post #490.

This is followed by a bam-bam-bam voting of Gorgon by Tarhalindur, soupfly, and Arakorn. Gorgon claims vanilla town in Post #500. gorckat takes the time to FoS: MBF, and then after neko2086 votes for Arakorn, gorckat drops the hammer. He claims "soup should do what he sees fit", but of course after already having agreed to the "lynch Gorgon, vig MBF" plan, and just prior to voting

FoSing

MBF, I can definitely see these posts as trying to get soupfly to vig MBF.

~~~~~

Day Four begins (the first post again being gorckat), and he does the only thing reasonably left in his arsenal: he FoS's both myself and Arakorn in Post #514. I am finding it striking that gorckat has claimed to be suspicious of Arakorn since Day One, then on Day Four makes a Post #520post against Arakorn[/url], then proceeds to vote for me without explanation in Post #526. His vote boils down to "gut" and "he doesn't trust me", which are the simplest explanation anybody can give when they have one of two choices and

need to get both choices lynched

. I rebut, and I think everybody knows what this resulted in, so I will stop my reread here

[Javert]

I'll reserve judgment on gorckat until after I have done my reread on both Arakorn and neko2086. If I were to pick a page I think was most informative about gorckat, it would have to be Page 14, where he was simultaneously put under pressure near deadline, and eventually ended up for for DR.

[Javert]

Ah, right, that should read "after neko2086 votes for Gorgon, gorckat drops the hammer".

I also do not believe the hammer vote in isolation really means anything -

somebody

has to be the hammer vote, after all. My posts are half summary, and half commentary: noting that he dropped the hammer is just summary.

What was more significant to me (and what I added commentary for) was that

prior

to dropping the hammer and going into night, gorckat took the time to FoS: MBF. This suggests to me that gorckat was definitely pushing for soupfly to kill MBF overnight -- and this seems odd when you consider the fact that gorckat has been consistently going after Arakorn, such that you would think he would suggest Arakorn being vigged at night over MBF.

Once again, this falls back on his strategy of "getting rid of the hardest people to lynch first", and in the case of MBF, getting him vigged means he does not even have to present a case for MBF.

{Of course, gorckat is not the only person who advocated vigging MBF, but at the very least Tarhalindur was -- like myself -- starting to doubt precisely how good the plan was; by hammering, these doubts could not be gone over in detail}.

[Javert]

Yes, I still try to put aside a little bit of time each day to read a few pages. Hectic schedule lately, but I certainly am not avoiding the game.

In the meanwhile, I would appreciate it if gorckat would respond to whatever he feels necessary to respond to in my summaries about him. Alternatively, there is nothing stopping any of you from making cases / commentary on the game.

[Javert]

All right, a few questions I that have precipitated from my the second half of my commentary on gorckat:

1.)

Was there a particular reason you did not vote Gorgon (on Day One) until a deadline was placed, when you had three other posts where you could have done the same?

2.)

Why did you vote for soupfly on Day One after the deadline was placed when you had at least four other people you found to be more suspicious? (Note: I believe you may have explained this before, but I am making this question based solely on my summary).

3.)

Did you feel 'pressured' on Page 14? I would like as much detail as possible for this particular question. Thoughts, feelings, plans, etc.

4.)

Did you feel that your exercise on the beginning of Day Two (looking at voting patterns) was self-serving?

5.)

Why did you not advocate vigging Arakorn over vigging MBF?

6.)

Why did you hammer Gorgon when it was fairly clear not everybody in the town (including Tarhalindur, easily the most important person in the game at that point) was not showing complete

comfort

with the plan?

~~~~~

I do not believe I will be finishing my Arakorn summary this weekend; looking at my schedule, I expect (hope) it will be done around this Wednesday to Friday. Real life is

such

an obstacle sometimes...

I will note, however, that if Arakorn's suspicion list has me

below

neko2086, I would like him to explain his reasoning for that

before

I make my summary of neko2086; the last I want is for him to cherrypick things from

my

eventual commentary as reasoning for

his

list.

[Javert]

Arakorn (McStab) Analysis

Hunh, this analysis should be fairly quick. I have no commentary on McStab; he was replaced after a mere two in-game posts in Post #248, on page 10. During these 10 pages, there is nothing in either MeMe's or Sikario8's posts which really suggest a connection (although this is to be expected given his absence and need for replacement).

Annoying that Arakorn asked for somebody else to 'summarize' the game for him, because he did not want to 'thoroughly' read through them all. At the very least not reading the game is bad play, but the use of the word 'thoroughly' makes his request scummier than it otherwise would be, since I

have

seen townspeople ask for games to be summarized for them due to a

lack of time

. I believe all other replacements – except for Dead Rikimaru -- in this game have read the game almost immediately and gave their own commentary. In this case, Arakorn indicated that he

could

have read the game, just that he did not want to do so

thoroughly

. This only serves to give him leeway if he happens to 'misinterpret' something based off some summarization given from another player. Upon being told to read the game himself, he claims that "I've decided not to trust you guys".

Near Christmastime, Arakorn mentions he'll be gone for a week or two. Nothing wrong with this, clearly. I can be pretty sure he must have sent a note to the mod to the same effect given the mod's Post #299, where the mod

did not

prod Arakorn, such that Arakorn was not 'avoiding' the game during this time.

However, his reentrance back into the game certainly doesn't win him any points for not even bothering to check when the deadline was, and then under the impression that it

was

the deadline day, he makes no effort to read the game, give commentary, or add a vote. Claims to have 'no suspects' in Post #324. gorckat gives a fair FoS when Arakorn posts Post #328, claiming that he might be able to "read through the whole thread in a week". Seeing as he had

just been told

deadline would hit in less than a week, this is essentially an excuse for him not to read the thread at all on Day One (or conversely, reading the thread but being able to skirt from commentary on it). Of course, as scum, this would allow him to get a hold of the game during the night, where he could talk with mafia partners. Noting here to check the difference between D1 and D2 posts from Arakorn, because if he were scum I would imagine he would have gotten some 'pointers' from MeMe during Night One.

As it happens, with four days until deadline hits, MeMe then

votes

for Arakorn in Post #331. I'm having trouble with this vote. On the one hand, since it was near deadline, this indicates that MeMe was being pretty serious. However, Post #336 from MeMe shows that she will be willing to vote anybody

else

at the drop of a hat, in effect weakening her vote on Arakorn. This vote may have been meant as a 'wake-up' call (i.e. "read the game and comment so you aren't lynched on that basis"). In response, Arakorn comes to the thread and votes for gorckat, putting two players above him on the lynching table while also taking a stand. He later (strangely) unvotes in Post #357 without reason. I really don't know what to make of this.

Note

: The MeMe-vote on Arakorn was on Page 14. Given my earlier analysis, I can be pretty confident that Page 14 is probably the most important page of the game, and I will be sure to read it a few times before I vote today.

There is some limited dialogue between MeMe (in a response to neko2086) and Arakorn in Post #351 and Post #353.

Noticing some insistence on how Arakorn is 'known for not contributing'. Examples are:

I really have no larger suspicions, as there has been so little analysis so far (on my part too, but those from TWC will know that I usually dont' do it either!

I am usually quite quiet, which makes me stand out here in a Mafia-dedicated community.

(I am known for not being so contributive though...)

I have a tendency to make comments like this as well (albeit not related to lack of contribution), so I'll give this the benefit of the doubt.

~~~~~

Day Two. After having had time to read the game (and if scum, converse with MeMe), he starts off with Post #382, to see if Tarhalindur means both voters of Arakorn (which were MeMe and Gorgon) are 'scum', which is a fair question since at the time, Tarhalindur only attacked MeMe and not Gorgon.

Post #387, defends his last-minute unvote, which is somewhat reasonable given that his vote was not 'necessary' for a lynch and even if scum, voting anybody else would not have saved Dead Rikimaru by that point once soupfly switched for self-preservation purposes. Unfortunately, we get no immediate commentary on the MeMe "lock-on"; he does not comment on Tarhalindur, and he does not comment on MeMe. After Tarhalindur claims, he votes for MeMe.

The vote is to be expected from both town or scum, but his comment of "at least we'll get a confirmation on his role next morning... That is unless someone has protective powers to protect Tar" suggests that

if

Arakorn is scum, he was certainly going to be trying to kill Tarhalindur that night as opposed to Doc-hunting. He

does

suggest talking more in Post #396, which I consider pro-town

except

for that if he wanted to

wait

to lynch MeMe, he also should have

unvoted

. Upon MeMe self-voting, he claims confusion in Post #416. And even though MeMe needed only one more vote for a lynch, he

did not unvote

. His actions (voting MeMe) are contrary to his words (don't lynch MeMe yet).

~~~~~

Day Three. Gives what his probably his most 'substantive' post so far in this reread with Post #454, which sadly does not comment on any live players.

Some soft WIFOM tossed out in Post #460, although in this case I think it is merited. MeMe had self-voted claiming "I had to try", so I find it doubtful that given Arakorn continued voting for MeMe, he was not "defending her". It is more likely (given his bifurcation of actions and words pointed out above) he was trying to make sure she got lynched so that he would not have to comment on the game for another day.

Claims to be 'fine' with soupfly's idea in Post #475, and wants Tar to decide on the lynch in Post #482 (in effect, another excuse to not post commentary on players). Advocates ending the day quickly (again) in Post #499 by voting Gorgon.

~~~~~

Day Four. Post #517 is a bit disingenuous; he questions how gorckat narrowed his suspects down to two players while doing the same thing himself. This is really the only time in the game in the reread where Arakorn has really mentioned a 'suspicion' at all, and even then it really only by 'process of elimination'. (Note: His early gorckat vote does not even seem to fit this as a suspicion, since he never presented a case and also unvoted him soon thereafter.)

A more substantial WIFOM defense in Post #535. First, it's faulty since neither Dead Rikimaru nor Sikario8 ever voted for him, and second this WIFOM relies on the actions of

others

instead of his

own

actions.

Claims to 'still be here' in Post #553, and offers no commentary on my analysis of gorckat, nor anything else. Confusing WIFOM post which needs to be clarified in Post #574, where he then limits scum-group to {gorckat and Neko}. These posts are all confusing in general; I'm not sure who is trying to refer to at all. Post #580 still fails to explain the posts. Apparently he sticks with the {gorckat and Neko} as being the two most likely with Post #596, which confuses me.

[Javert]

Questions for Arakorn

1.)

Arakorn, have you 'thoroughly' read the game by now?

2.)

You claimed at one point that the game 'could have been several pages of spam'. Do you find spam easier to read through, or posts of substance?

-->

a.

If you answer 'spam', then the game should have been fairly easy to read through when you replaced on the top of Page 11. Why then did you appear to avoid reading the game for so long?

-->

b.

If you answer substantive posts, then why have you not commented on those posts which are actually substantive? I would very much like your commentary on the gorckat-Javert discussion on the last few pages.

3.)

After returning from Christmas break, you enter the game claiming to think that day was the deadline day. If this is true, why weren't you compelled to read the game and vote as soon as possible? Deadlines, in my experience, tend to

spur

activity.

4.)

Why did you vote for gorckat near deadline only to unvote him soon thereafter?

5.)

Would you have voted for MeMe if Tarhalindur had not claimed? Would you have voted Tarhalindur if he had 'refused' to claim? Try to answer honestly, and with reasoning.

6.)

Why did you claim that you wanted the town to

wait

to lynch MeMe while you were still

voting

for her? Do you agree that if that was your intention, you would have been better off

holding off

voting for MeMe?

7.)

I would also like you to clarify, once and for all, exactly who your suspects are, and in what order. You switched from the beginning of Day Four from {gorckat and Javert} to {gorckat and neko2086}, and I would like to make sure this is – in fact – what you are intending to do. Once you have clarified, I would like reasoning as for why this is where you are placing us, and what caused you into making this switch.

[Javert]

Response to gorckat's question

6.) Why did you hammer Gorgon when it was fairly clear not everybody in the town (including Tarhalindur, easily the most important person in the game at that point) was not showing complete comfort with the plan?

Point me at a post showing dissent. I skimmed back and I didn't see any. I saw a string of "vote: Gorgon" and Arakorn's "let Tar decide".

Certainly.

A plan is first proposed in Post #464. Both myself and Tarhalindur point out a few problems in Post 467, Post 468, and Post 469. This is followed by some adjustments suggested. After some adjustments, we have people showing some discomfort with the plan

Dissension #1

: Arakorn not agreeing to 'neko being town' in Post #475 (easily the 'weakest' dissension)

Dissension #2

: Gorgon does not think soupfly should use the rocket in Post #485

Dissension #3

: When MBF votes for gorckat in Post #495, he is pretty clearly against the 'lynch Gorgon, Vig MBF' plan, especially since he had a chance to push Gorgon towards a lynch in Post #503.

Dissension #4

: I show how my concerns about the 'plan' aren't simply coming from myself in Post #496, since it was clear that not everybody agreed on the assessments of players, and there were questions as to exactly what soupfly's 'money forger' did, or what soupfly should do that next night.

Dissension #5

: Tarhalindur specifically mentions he is "getting some cold feet about MBF himself" while voting for Gorgon in Post #497, and additionally, he does not tell the town to vote with him; instead he explicitly says that he will "

look over his posts again later

". This is both showing discomfort with vigging MBF, as well as lynching Gorgon before he has a chance to assure that's what he wants to do.

~~~~~

Note: the word 'dissension' in this context is meant to show that these players were not

fully

comfortable with the plan, and hence it was fairly clear that the plan needed more discussing before going into night.

[Javert]

I will answer your question after Arakorn has responded to the set of questions I have laid out for him (and possibly have him respond/react to things in my analysis which are not direct questions). As it is, I want to be able to read my analyses and responses to them side-by-side.

[Javert]

Responding to Arakorn (with more questions):

To my knowledge, deadlines are good for the scum, who wish to get the day over ASAP. Why would I vote for someone if I had no suspicions, at least not enough to warrant a vote for someone?
I really don't remember much from this time though, it is 3 months ago, but was the deadline moved a week further? That's the only reason I can think of as the reason why I thought it was the deadline...

Let me ask my same question in a different way. If you thought that day was the deadline day, why were you not spurred to read the game to

find out

who you were most suspicious of so that you could give a warranted vote?

No, I thought his claim had enough proof. (BTW it would have helped had you linked to Tar's posts, "claims", too...)

Ah, perhaps my wording was a bit confusing. This is more along the lines of what I was getting at:

If Tarhalindur never claimed his role at all or that he had an investigation (but instead just went after MeMe), would you have voted MeMe alongside with him? Or would have done something else?

I held my vote there as a pressure vote. Don't have anything more to say to my defense here.
Would a scum have lynched his scum-mate, or wouldn't the scum after having urged for more discussion actually unvote too? This would avoid suspicion very much.

Response: In my experience, if a townsperson wants more discussion, they should take away the avenues for

stopping

discussion (which means they should unvote somebody, especially if they are anywhere close to being lynched).

Here is an example of what I am getting at from another game (which is pretty famous and everybody on the site should read it, in my humble opinions): Post #157 from Axelrod-scum in Worst Role Evar Mafia. He claims he does

not

want a player lynched while putting them at Lynch-1, and then that player is lynched anyways immediately afterwards (by a townsperson, no less). If Axelrod had

really

not wanted that player lynched yet, he would not have

voted

for him – as you may notice, he actually

did

want that player lynched. His actions and his words were contradicting each other.

As it is, scum had a vested interest in making Day Two in

this

game go as fast as possible; the sooner MeMe was lynched, the less information the town could actually get from the lynch; this is an excellent reason for scum to (for example) claim they do not want the day to end yet while keeping their vote on MeMe (in hopes she actually is lynched all the sooner). This is why I am poking you about this subject.

My top suspect remains Gorckat. Second comes Neko, then Javert, but the difference between these is minimal.

Please

go into detail. The

point

of me asking you questions is because

I do not know your alignment, and I am trying to figure that out

. The longer your response, the more likely I am to judge correctly. Point to posts you don't like (or do like), make a case, tell me where you get particular vibes: do whatever you need to do so that I can see you have

some

reasoning behind why you are placing players where they are on your suspicions list.

[Javert]

While I’m waiting for the last few Arakorn responses, I’ll analyze neko2086. Please note that I will be gone from March 13 – 17 due to Mock Trial. I will be placing my vote after returning unless it is generally agreed that people would like more discussion.

Also, I will be trying to do this reread as objectively as possible, without my inherent bias telling me that neko2086 is probably town and this is likely a waste of my time. No leniency will be given on account of this.

neko2086 Analysis

Pokes early at MeMe with Post #26, with some cordial posts exchanged between the two in Posts 29-31. Cannot tell if this was distancing or genuine curiosity as of yet, so this exchange does not push me one way or another.

Post #55, although displaced on Archaist, is actually just fine so long as reasoning goes, with a fine response in Post #58.

I have mixed feelings about the vote on Archaist in the sense that he then FoS’s soupfly for following and FoS’s gorckat for following; it does not strike me as entirely ‘natural’. I know of at least one other player who has (or had, at least) a similar habit. In Committee Mafia (the first example that comes to mind), Glorkscum asked for people to “trust in the Glorkdar”, and then promptly FoS’s Bogre for putting trust in Glork a mere ten posts later. Slight scum points for neko2086 for this.

Hmm, didn’t notice this before. In Post #86, neko2086 characterizes RideTheBomb’s vote on MeMe as an OMGUS vote, and then also asks why RTB was voting for MeMe; the relevant thing to note being that if RTB had a legitimate reason, then his vote was not OMGUS. This may have been an attempt to poison the well (i.e. make RTB look bad prior to him explaining his vote – which, as it turned out,

was

OMGUS as explained in Post #95, but neko2086 could not have known that at the time). He also questions gorckat’s vote on MeMe. I might normally construe this as a soft defense of MeMe, but neko2086 has already shown somewhat of a precedent for having people explain their votes (i.e. the votes on Archaist and even MeMe’s vote on RTB). As such, minus points for prematurely characterizing RTB’s vote as OMGUS, but no points either way for asking people to explain their MeMe votes.

Reasonable enough explanation of Archaist-vote and subsequent FoS’s in Post #108. Good FoS of Sikario8 in Post #140, followed by a vote in Post #142. Neither of these posts strikes me as a distancing attempt so far. Continues to hound Sikario8 in Post #153, as well as Post #163. neko2086 is really the only person giving Sikario8 a rough time so far, so this is definite plus points; this is all just forcing Sikario8 into the spotlight more and more (which is even hard see scum doing given that Sikario8 was a Godfather). He also makes a jab at Sikario8 without mentioning his name in Post #190 by slipping in “active lurking, however, is worse”.

Post #222 is a post to keep in mind while reading neko2086; seems like a definer of his gameplay.

Uh. No clue what to think about the string of posts from Post 225 from Sikario8 up to Post 228 from Sikario8. Regardless, it was bad play from Sikario8.

Note: After this time, neko2086 started accumulating some serious flak and a couple votes (and a confirm vote from soupfly). Need to keep this in mind. Unfortunately, neko2086 also was away during this period, as explained in Post #276.

Very pro-town diluting of MeMe’s Pra vote in Post #293. This shows he is reading the thread carefully, understanding the substance behind arguments, and not willing to hop on weak reasoning. I am more inclined a scum-partner would not have attacked MeMe’s reasoning at all, but instead would have simply stuck with something such as “I do not agree with your reasoning”.

I also like Post #332, which remains consistent with Post #222 I referenced above, while additionally continuing to ‘stick it’ to Sikario8 / DR. neko2086 never really seems to waver on his Sikario8 vote. He even continues to poke at MeMe

new

vote (on Arakorn) with Post #350.

None

of this has felt like distancing even once, and neko2086’s play on Day One would necessitate him having distanced from Sikario8 by playing a huge role in his lynch, as well as having distanced from MeMe by continually attacking her reasoning when it would have been completely unnecessary to do that as a scum-partner.

I actually think I will just stop right now (unless somebody would like me to finish my analysis). Although I

do

think neko2086 did a few scummy things to kick off the game, his actions later in day one -- as well as circumstance (the tracking result) make him look very pro-town, especially more pro-town than gorckat and Arakorn.

~~~~~

Back to waiting on Arakorn, then.

[Javert]

I stated quite a while ago that I would be doing an analysis of neko2086. I don't know what to tell you so far as it was a 'positive review'; I had no intention of giving a negative or a positive review when I first began; simply to give an analysis as objectively as possible without letting my biases affect me.

Is there something in my analysis you

disagree

with in particular? Do you think I came to my conclusion too quickly? With insubstantial evidence or reasoning? Can you find something that looks like distancing to

you

? It really took until the end of Day One for me to reaffirm my opinion that neko2086 is probably town, and not before.

Votecount;

Arakorn (2) soupfly, gorckat
gorckat (1) arakorn


Not voting; The rest of you

[Javert]

Additionally, the only reason neko2086 will likely be "deciding the game" is specifically

because

a good deal of players feel he is town (a sentiment I can now agree with after having given a tailored reread to this effect). My conclusion that I believe he is town should have no influence on his decision (should he even have to make one) unless he feels there is something wrong with my reasoning, or that I was going 'soft' on him for the purpose of buttering him up, or some such thing.

[Javert]

I have to say I am more than a little frustrated that the more thoroughly I try to make endgame decisions (or effective equivalents), the more I am accused of trying to give towns 'information overloads' or 'drowning out the thread [with noise]'. This is a pretty established part of my gameplay: I play to win, and to make sure I win it requires that I reread the thread multiple times under different mindsets. I also believe peer-reviews are very helpful; if I take the time to post an analysis, I expect people to bounce ideas from it, respond to it, or disagree with it with reasoning.

There is a pretty simple way to determine if you believe that I am trying to fill the thread with filler or fluff or 'information overloads';

read

my posts and see if you find anything

wrong

with them. If you

do

find something wrong, you can then determine if you think I was doing that

purposefully

(which would indicate I am using whatever means necessary -- namely, bad reasoning -- to achieve a particular end) or in good faith.

[Javert]

I am not positive I will be able to slip in a post tomorrow, so I want to make sure I give my opinion on today (since it is possible there may be a lynch while I am away):

There are a few things which make me believe Arakorn is townier than gorckat. Many of them boil down to WIFOM, but I am not a player who dismisses things on that basis if I feel there is a kernel of truth to be had in them; I simply give them their due weight. Although I do not have my notes with me (they are at school, whereas I am at home right now) it really boils down to two things:

Sincerity and playing against his individual self-interest. The tones of many of Arakorn's posts strike me as very sincere; at the same time, many of his posts seem to be so much against his self-interest (if he were scum) that it is difficult to imagine a scum writing them in the first place.

-->

a.)

He denies being a newbie (something he may have been able to exploit had he chosen to do so)
-->

b.)

He seems to genuinely confuse naming people today; this clearly does not help him as either town or scum. I am inclined to think anybody being scum with MeMe, however, would not find it easy to accidentally mistake neko2086 with MeMe. It is certainly bad play, but it does not seem like

purposeful

bad play.
-->

c.)

He is apparently listing his scum-preference as {gorckat => neko => Javert}. This is practically shooting himself in the foot; if we were to lynch gorckat today, he would look bad switching to me; and by that same token, I do not believe I would lynch neko with him tomorrow if it comes down to us three. His list basically sets him up for being lynched tomorrow.
-->

d.)

Arakorn has had a precedent in this game of pointing out he is not a big contributor, and this helps as an explanation for his posting in this game. Although I have never played with Arakorn before to or read any of his games to verify this, I am under the impression (false? true?) that at the very least, Pra a Funkee Homo Sapien is from the same site as Arakorn, and given that Pra never once disagreed with Arakorn on this point, that it is more likely to be true than it is false. His response to 'whether he finds spam or substance easier to read' also rings fairly true (although being truthful to this question is not in itself an indicator of alignment).

~~~~~

That said, without seeing Arakorn's answers to my questions, I am more inclined to lynch Arakorn today over gorckat (however much it would probably be in

my

best interest to lynch gorckat today).

Short summarization of reasons:

Regardless of his claimed past history of not contributing, entering a game asking for somebody to 'summarize' it for you automatically pulls a rug from your feet. All other replacements -- except Dead Rikimaru-scum -- read the game and gave their own commentary. By that same token, reentering the game under the impression there is a deadline while making no effort to find scum indicates to me a tacit consent to being okay with lynching whoever happens to be on the chopping block; soupfly appeared to be the lynch choice du jour at this point in time. His offer to 'read the game in a week' with deadline going to hit in less than a week does (contrary to the sincerity mentioned above) does not strike me as being fully sincere; he had

just

been told deadline was in a week, so this comment is flatly bad.

The inconsistency between words and actions ('don't lynch MeMe yet' while still voting for her) has always stricken me as disingenuous, both in this game and in past games.

Finally, he is largely using WIFOM as his defenses today ('would MeMe have voted for me?' and 'would a scum have lynched his scum-mate?'), which is appealing to other players' actions to try to clear himself, as opposed to using his

own

actions to clear himself.

[Javert]

That might look confusing, so I will clarify it off the bat:

There are more things Arakorn has said which seem 'townish' over gorckat; however, there are

also

more things Arakorn has

done

which make him seem more 'scummish' than gorckat. Given those two choices, I would rather lynch the player who I believe to me more scummy.

[Javert]

Flew back into town yesterday, and I will not have the time to read this game until Saturday (possibly Friday).

[Javert]

Argh: I will admit I am getting tired of reading this game. It feels as if I've almost memorized the whole thing, given that I've read the posts so many times (excepting for some of the latest posts).

I think I will (finally) place what will hopefully be my only vote this game.

Vote: Arakorn

.

I know when I first entered the game, gorckat struck me as one of the two people who looked townish. I admittedly had displaced suspicions early on, but circumstance proved me wrong on two of them (Tarhalindur and soupfly) and during Day Three I was starting to think MBF may have been a townie based on a couple past games I have played with him (in that I have been scum with him on two separate occasions, and he did not appear to be playing the same way in this game – but that is pretty much irrelevant at this point). I generally regret

not

going with my first intuitions, so I am going to go with them here.

I will also note that it is very difficult for me not to just toss my vote on gorckat here in order to lynch him, such that if the game were to continue,

I

would then be the one with the "easy lynch target" tomorrow in Arakorn. Hopefully this doesn't come back to bite me in the ass, but I would rather try to lynch the person I think is more likely to be scum rather than try to secure me the "easier" lynch for a hypothetical tomorrow.

Most of my suspicion on gorckat seems to stem largely from things I find personally problematic with what appears to be his playstyle: in particular, (a) the fact that he votes without explanation only to provide reasoning afterwards, (b) his placement on bandwagons, and (c) his claimed play that he would rather lynch the more 'difficult' players first so that the 'easier' players are left afterwards [established both with the "MBF > Arakorn vigging"-plan, as well as the "Javert > Arakorn lynching"-plan]. Of course, there

are

some things he has done which I have not felt comfortable with which cannot really be swept under the carpet of "playstyle", but:

Most of my suspicion on Arakorn seems to be coming from his

actions

and not really what I consider to be his 'playstyle'. I will not bother summarizing this again; I already did so earlier.

If I have counted correctly, this puts Arakorn at Lynch-1. Feel free to ask me any questions.

[Javert]

No, I was not referring to "third on the wagon", "fourth on the wagon", or any of that. I was referring generally to his placement of

so many

votes and often at opportune times (the Archaist vote and the DR vote coming first to mind), which were additionally (as previously mentioned) not supplied with up-front reasoning. I can see cases where players use the "vote now, explain later" tack under certain circumstances, but his placement of votes such as that seemingly

all the time

is another aspect of his gameplay which does not mesh with me. When one continually moves their vote around, the chances of "pressuring" somebody without providing an explanation drops. To me, the

point

of voting somebody without explanation is to see if they start to panic or get overly worried about the vote cast on them. When one is so willing to swap votes without explanation, you lose the force behind your votes.

Javert, how do you feel about Arakorn's latest posts?

I feel like Arakorn has been trying to play a "soft" newbie card since pressure has turned on him, with his "I am not nearly as skilled as you" line as well as the "I would rather trust in your votes" line (this refers to Post 639). I would have liked his post much better had he simply answered my questions without tossing in these superfluous lines.

After having considered the possible methods for Arakorn-scum to win this game, he is actually probably playing the best strategy he can attempt right now. In order for him to win as scum, he essentially has to get both myself and gorckat lynched today and tomorrow, in some order. Really, the only plausible way

I

can think for him to do that in his position is to play to emotion -- which he appears to be doing by both appealing to inexperience, and offering himself up as the 'sacrifice'.

[Javert]

While I am thinking about it:

Mod

, can you confirm that it takes over a quarter of the votes -- in this case, 2 votes -- in order to lynch somebody at deadline? Some mods change their deadline rules according to how many players are alive, just want to make sure you are not one of them.

[Javert]

(a) the fact that he votes without explanation only to provide reasoning afterwards

a) Far better players than I do the same. Glork recently did it to me in an another ongoing game, despite 30 pages of info. I also see mbf doing it this game (as town!).

Firstly, please do not refer to on-going games -- I do not know Glork's alignment in that game.

Secondly, I have nothing against voting without explanation

per se

; only in certain contexts. I have done it myself at times, and other experienced players do the same -- I find nothing wrong with the act in isolation. However, voting without explanation still requires an explanation after the desired result(s) have been achieved, or the opportunity for the desired result(s) have properly been given. In this particular game, the explanations you have

given

for your votes have not all been satisfactory to me. This is all been covered in my two "analysis" posts I have done on you.

(b) his placement on bandwagons

b) "Third on the wagon is scum!" sorts of things? Commonly considered bunk. Citations and proof such placement equates with scum required.

Covered in latest posts.

and (c) his claimed play that he would rather lynch the more 'difficult' players first so that the 'easier' players are left afterwards [established both with the "MBF > Arakorn vigging"-plan, as well as the "Javert > Arakorn lynching"-plan].

c) See ABR's mini 486 where I argued the same (this was just the last time before my lynch- see my posts for several other times I borught it up) against Elias, yet was town.

All right, I've read the posts to which you have linked me (and a few leading up to those posts), and I will be honest in saying I do not see a parallel.

It looks to me that in ABR's game, you were attacking Elias_the_thief for substantial reasons, such as (a) he "forgot" the amount of scum, (b) he appeared to be "giving up", (c) that he "backtracked on Oman", and (d) that he "cleared SPAG but couldn't read pulse". You come to the conclusion that "Its a lot of circumstantials that make him the best choice, imho, for today".

To me, that makes it look like you were trying to lynch the player you thought was most likely to be scum (the 'best choice'), and not only that, but you were presenting coherent reasons as to

why

you thought him to most likely be scum. I am not seeing any motivation of "lynching the hard players and not the easy players" in your posts.

If you feel I am reading your posts incorrectly, please quote and emphasize which portions you believe I am reading incorrectly.

c2) I never said I wanted mbf vigged over Arakorn. I think I read a question wrong earlier. You

asked

why I never wanted Arakorn vigged over mbf, but the

plan

tar presented put Gorgon and mbf up on the block. iirc, from skimming my posts right now, Arakorn was probably in a pool of people to be dealt with as a course of the plan.

Of course you never

said

it: what is relevant to me is that you did not suggest the alternate plan of having Arakorn vigged at that time, especially after you had been pursuing Arakorn for so long. It is a rare town that follows plans to a T -- even those concocted by people who turn out to be confirmed innocents -- so making sure the people

you

thought were most likely to be scum were killed as soon as possible should still have been your top priority.

Of course, this falls full circle on one of the larger differences between what I am taking to be our general playstyles. I want to "deal with" the scummiest players right off the bat, instead of "saving them for later", which you seem to be just fine in doing.

[Javert]

There is no need for you "not to vote" unless you are thinking I might vote neko2086, which is not going to happen. Voting only "stops discussion" if there is a hammer vote.

Vote: Arakorn

.

I had two posts I was working on overnight on the assumption that we were in a scenario such as this today, but I am on a school computer right now. I will finish them later tonight and post them. The first explains some research I was doing on "TWCenter" (where at the very least, Pra, Arakorn, and Jenter all come from), and the second lists out the reasons Arakorn is scum.

[Javert]

Back home. Finished this post, working on next.

Note: I will not be asking Arakorn questions, because I am not concerned with 'hunting' for scum at this point – I just need to get the scum lynched.

Based off Pra a Funkee Homo Sapien's Post #224, I checked out the "TWCenter" that Pra mentioned, and found this game set-up, which is the exact same set-up we are playing in (Cop-Mason, Mason, Inventor, 6 Townies v 1 Mafia Godfather, 2 Mafia Goons). The only difference appears to be that in that game it appears as though the Cop-Mason and Mason were not "siblings", like they apparently were here. I assume the mod "Jubal_Barca" is, in fact, Jenter Brolincani (both have the abbreviation "JB").

Here's what's relevant: "Arakorn-eir" (aka Arakorn) was in that game, and hence if anybody was to recognize the set-up, Arakorn and Pra were the most likely given Tarhalindur's claimed Mason-Cop with guaranteed sanity and guaranteed mod-confirmed Mason partner... especially given that there were no counter-claims to either the Cop claim, or the Mason claim. It's not every day you see a claim

that

strong – it is

bound

to ring bells if you have seen it before.

Now [WIFOM aside], I think most players would not have tried to kill Tarhalindur on Night Two, specifically because he was clearly a very powerful role, and was

easily

going to be the Doctor's protection target. Doctor-hunting would have been the more prudent option by far.

The catch

: If a person somehow had knowledge that there was not a Doctor role in the game or had reason to

doubt

the presence of a Doctor, they would clearly try to kill Tarhalindur. And from all angles of looking at things, I see no other explanation for the lack of N2 kill other than Arakorn tried to kill Tarhalindur but was foiled by soupfly.

As it happens, there is clear evidence from this game that Arakorn knew (or at least was confident) there was a not Doctor. It stems from the following:

I also think it's worth to give this a shot and lynch Meme,

at least we'll get a confirmation on his role next morning... That is unless someone has protective powers to protect Tar.

He

knows

the town will get confirmation of his role because he knows (a) that he will trying to kill Tarhalindur over the night, and (b) that Tarhalindur will be successfully killed. To cover his bases, though, he mentioned the offhand possibility of a "protective role"... note that he does not say

Doctor

. Why? Because he knows the only possible "protective role" is the Inventor, and the chances of the Inventor happening to (a) target Tarhalindur and (b) target Tarhalindur with the correct invention are very low.

~~~~~

That ended up sounding a bit convoluted. Summarization:

A.)

Arakorn has played in this set-up before, by the same mod.

B.)

Arakorn stated that "at least we'll get a confirmation on his role the next morning... that is unless someone has protective powers to protect Tar". He already knew that Tarhalindur would be targeted by scum, he knew that scum would successfully kill overnight (as he had

good reason

to disbelieve the presence of a Doctor), and he knew that the instead of there being a Doctor role, the only chance to save Tarhalindur was an offhand "protective role" (aka Inventor).

[Javert]

That takes the cake. I am

so

frustrated I have to argue this much against a player who is not even going to respond to me, and gives me nothing to respond to. Regardless, this definitely needs to be said:

Arakorn, you have read Post #644. Summary: neko2086 basically runs down reasons he thinks you are

not

scum: he buys that you are inexperienced which lessens the severity of everything you've done this game, he buys your 'sacrifice'-talk, and he thinks that because you are being lazy and actively lurking and not doing anything of consequence that this makes you town (because he "expects scum to fight tooth and nail", despite the fact that

townspeople fight tooth and nail too

, especially if they have personal pride on the line).

Granted, neko doesn't really talk about

me

in relation to you in this post, but his viewpoint is pretty clear: "Javert appears to be a good player, so I cannot trust anything he says or does" -- it seems likely everybody in the game has held this view, and I am getting used to it by now.

Here's the point: In case you haven't noticed (although I am positive you have), my position is

much worse

than the one you're playing from. Here's why:

Even if I were to make an airtight case proving that you are scum (which clearly is not possible without ways to confirm alignments), it will be viewed with suspicion precisely because I am an older player. This is an insanely difficult burden to deal with. You, on the other hand, get to say nothing and offer no explanations for

anything

, and because of the way you have played this game (in being completely useless), it only acts to "confirm" that you are 'inexperienced' and from that (although I do not understand how or why) that you are town.

I personally have an awful feeling I will be lynched this game (given the vibes I have been feeling from neko2086), but that is not going to stop me from trying my damnedest to get you lynched. Stop this whole "woe is me" charade and pony up.

[Javert]

1.)

He enters the game asking others to summarize it for him, despite it only being 11 pages long. The only other player to have shown no real signs of having actively read the game (allowing them to get away with not giving opinions) was DR.

2.)

He has preemptively painted himself as a player who does not contribute, which allows him an easy defense for when he is actually called out for not contributing. He is likely being truthful about his claim, but starting off the game warning us three separate times (quoted in an earlier post of mine) about it was unnecessary. This has essentially given him the fodder to lurk in plain sight, while hardly ever offering up an opinion (so that he can never be contradicted or questioned about them).

3.)

Arakorn is clearly not a "new" player

; the game I linked to at TWCenter began

last summer

, and he had played games even

previous

to that one. He also began this game by denying being a newbie player.

And yet

, he has still appealed to his inexperience

twice

upon being pressured, with the lines " I am not nearly as skilled as you. " and "I'd rather trust in your votes, (the more experienced player's) than in my own "feelings"". This is basically playing a "soft" newbie card; he is not claiming to be a newbie outright, but he is still trying to

reap the benefits

of being given the "benefit of the doubt".

Experience has nothing to do with alignment.

4.)

Tied in with the above, Arakorn is making claims that clearly few experienced players would make (which is essentially a way to make somebody think "he is a newb" without that person having to actually claim to be one). Not only does his list of {gorckat > neko2086 > Javert} not make sense, but even after being asked to explain his list multiple times, he has

failed to do so

. Additionally, his mixing of names is downright

bad

("why would neko vote for me if we were both scum?").

His strategy appears to me to try for the "I am so pathetic I could not possibly be scum". And in order to keep up this facade, he needs to give off the "poor ol' me" aura as much as possible, and act as if he is "uninterested" in the game despite being so close to winning (which would be true

regardless

of his alignment, although it is clearly scum in this case). Asking to be "sacrificed" is by far the sealer of the deal...

if he was really going to sacrifice himself, he would have voted for himself

. The

only

reason he mentioned the word "sacrifice" was to evoke pity.

If you think this strategy is far-fetched, look no further than Toaster Strudel's play in Evolution Mafia (although reading the whole game is clearly not recommended). To quote from her wiki page:

Mysterious yet prolific player who plays dumb to survive and be more persuasive. Really, really dumb.

Toaster Strudel suffers not from shame and there is no limit to how dumb she is willing to look to fool people. Doesn't appear to ever pay attention, does not read special game instructions, and logic is almost always faulty.

Paradoxically endowed with a brilliant scumdar. An idiot savant. Almost as funny as DrippingGoofball, which is perhaps not a coincidence.

^ Bolded for emphasis ^

5.)

Post 517 is almost a contradiction in itself. He acts incredulous that gorckat narrowed his list down to {Arakorn, Javert} while he

himself

has narrowed his list down to {gorckat, Javert} – both players clearly used process of elimination, so calling gorckat's post "useless" while he does the exact same thing is hypocritical at best.

6.)

Despite claiming to believe he was reentering the game under deadline, Arakorn still made no effort to read the game, and in fact claimed to have "no suspects at the moment", which effectively leaves his voting options as wide as possible. He suggests that he might read the game "in a week" – basically after the deadline hits.

7.)

He has reverted to WIFOM as a defense multiple times, often boiling down to "would MeMe vote me if we were partners?". The answer, of course, is

yes

. At the time, she was the

first

vote on Arakorn, and after looking back in the game, she actually

did not even present a case on him

(unlike her prior votes, although she held off on her RTB explanation for a while). As a scum partner, this holds little risk, and potentially big rewards.

8.)

Arakorn [and the person he replaced, McStab] managed get past Day One without giving a single weighty opinion. The same goes for Day Two – he votes MeMe, and then acts surprised about her self-voting. On Day Three he just follows Tarhalindur's plan. Day Four, he finally

has

to give an opinion, and it doesn't even make sense. He has been actively lurking this whole game – posting without actually posting content.

9.)

He contradicted himself in actions and deeds when he voted for MeMe while essentially asking players not to lynch MeMe yet. If he had truly not wanted MeMe lynched yet, he would have simply unvoted.

10.)

And

now

he is appealing directly to pity. "I guess I'm going to die now", "the town is doomed now". These are completely unnecessary – they add nothing to the game other than emotional appeal. And he still does not offer any reasoning. He was even so brazen as to double-check whether or not I would be willing to vote for you (neko).

It is fairly clear that Arakorn cannot

consistently

try to "fight tooth and nail" at this point, because that would flatly contradict his earlier behavior in the game. His best bet is to act useless, confused, inexperienced, and depressed, and he is currently playing up

all

of this.

~~~~~

Any questions or concerns, ask them and I will answer them at my next reasonable opportunity. We are in no hurry.

[Javert]

Still here.

However, I feel that my perspective on matters is very clearly put, and any points I make at this time would likely just be more repetitive than informative (and hence not really that helpful for neko).

As such, if there are any questions or things you want me to address, merely mention them and I will answer them. Otherwise my posting in this game will likely be scant, given that I have said most all I can say.

[Javert]

A few other things to note:

1.)

MeMe had asked Jenter to lock the game after she had hammered herself; the thread remained open long enough, however, for the 'mystique' of her post to lose it's luster.

2.)

The flavor of the game made it very difficult to argue against certain things; for example, soupfly was nigh unlynchable because of the fact that he was an inventor was constantly confirmed in scenes throughout the game and PMs to players. Refusing to modkill soupfly also essentially was no better than flat out

telling

the town that soupfly was town.

3.)

After my kill had failed on N2 on Tarhalindur (which left me feeling 100% depressed -- both my partners had been lynched and I couldn't even succeed in

killing

my biggest threat) I thought my best chance may have been to get the town to believe the mafia was dead (at least for a day).

4.)

Modding the same game twice without making it an open set-up also could have

easily

lost scum the game. Both Pra a Funkee Homo Sapien and Arakorn (at the very least) had indeed played in this set-up before at TWCenter (the only change being the Suicide Pact). If either of them had noticed this, any scum trying to fake-claim could have been blown out of the water by simply referencing that other game.

~~~~~

Overall, I am pretty happy with my performance -- I have tried to think of things I would have done differently if I were town, and I honestly am not sure what -- if anything -- I

would

have done differently (excepting for that if I had not replaced Archaist, I obviously would have poked at him).

I really thought I had about a snowball's chance in Hell as Day Three unfolded. My Godfather and Goon were dead; I had failed to kill the night before; I was dealing with 2 Mod-Confirmed Masons and a Mod-Confirmed Sane Cop; the mod then proceeded to confirm soupfly the Inventor by (a) the day scene, (b) a PM to neko2086, (c) a PM to Tarhalindur, and (d) lack of modkill; soupfly then read his result wrong to "confirm" neko2086; then my argument for a cult was blown from the water with "will town lynch the last scum?"; and then the town started making plans that would get me lynched. By the end of Day Three, I still did not know whether or not there was a Doctor or other power roles floating around. It was

not

a fun position to play from.

I am still not

completely

sure how I managed to slide under all of that, but you can rest assured that I lost a good amount of sleep over this game figuring how to argue against things (a) as objectively as possible, and (b) in such a way that it would result in me not being lynched yet. And, as it happens, I really

did

think neko2086 was going to vote me when it came down to it (on the basis that he thought Arakorn was sincere on D4).

Thanks to all who played, and a *huggles* to MeMe -- wish we could have actually

played

as scum-partners instead of being ripped apart as soon as I came in.

[Javert]

Edit by way of Post:

^

3.)

After my kill had failed on N2 on Tarhalindur (which left me feeling 100% depressed -- both my partners had been lynched and I couldn't even succeed in killing my biggest threat) I thought my best chance may have been to get the town to believe the mafia was dead (at least for a day)

and that a cult may be alive

-- specifically, I wanted the town to come to the conclusion that Tarhalindur was a Cultist who had failed to recruit MeMe (because she was scum) on Night One, and had successfully recruited somebody (either soupfly for Arakorn/Pra) on Night Two. Drastic times called for drastic measures! However, the "will town lynch the last scum" comment basically put a halt to that strategy before it could begin.