Arakorn (McStab) Analysis
Hunh, this analysis should be fairly quick. I have no commentary on McStab; he was replaced after a mere two in-game posts in
Post #248, on page 10. During these 10 pages, there is nothing in either MeMe's or Sikario8's posts which really suggest a connection (although this is to be expected given his absence and need for replacement).
Annoying that Arakorn asked for somebody else to 'summarize' the game for him, because he did not want to 'thoroughly' read through them all. At the very least not reading the game is bad play, but the use of the word 'thoroughly' makes his request scummier than it otherwise would be, since I
have
seen townspeople ask for games to be summarized for them due to a
lack of time
. I believe all other replacements – except for Dead Rikimaru -- in this game have read the game almost immediately and gave their own commentary. In this case, Arakorn indicated that he
could
have read the game, just that he did not want to do so
thoroughly
. This only serves to give him leeway if he happens to 'misinterpret' something based off some summarization given from another player. Upon being told to read the game himself, he claims that "I've decided not to trust you guys".
Near
Christmastime, Arakorn mentions he'll be gone for a week or two. Nothing wrong with this, clearly. I can be pretty sure he must have sent a note to the mod to the same effect given the mod's
Post #299, where the mod
did not
prod Arakorn, such that Arakorn was not 'avoiding' the game during this time.
However, his
reentrance back into the game certainly doesn't win him any points for not even bothering to check when the deadline was, and then under the impression that it
was
the deadline day, he makes no effort to read the game, give commentary, or add a vote. Claims to have 'no suspects' in
Post #324. gorckat gives a fair FoS when Arakorn posts
Post #328, claiming that he might be able to "read through the whole thread in a week". Seeing as he had
just been told
deadline would hit in less than a week, this is essentially an excuse for him not to read the thread at all on Day One (or conversely, reading the thread but being able to skirt from commentary on it). Of course, as scum, this would allow him to get a hold of the game during the night, where he could talk with mafia partners. Noting here to check the difference between D1 and D2 posts from Arakorn, because if he were scum I would imagine he would have gotten some 'pointers' from MeMe during Night One.
As it happens, with four days until deadline hits, MeMe then
votes
for Arakorn in
Post #331. I'm having trouble with this vote. On the one hand, since it was near deadline, this indicates that MeMe was being pretty serious. However,
Post #336 from MeMe shows that she will be willing to vote anybody
else
at the drop of a hat, in effect weakening her vote on Arakorn. This vote may have been meant as a 'wake-up' call (i.e. "read the game and comment so you aren't lynched on that basis"). In response, Arakorn comes to the thread and
votes for gorckat, putting two players above him on the lynching table while also taking a stand. He later (strangely) unvotes in
Post #357 without reason. I really don't know what to make of this.
Note
: The MeMe-vote on Arakorn was on Page 14. Given my earlier analysis, I can be pretty confident that Page 14 is probably the most important page of the game, and I will be sure to read it a few times before I vote today.
There is some limited dialogue between MeMe (in a response to neko2086) and Arakorn in
Post #351 and
Post #353.
Noticing some insistence on how Arakorn is 'known for not contributing'. Examples are:
Arakorn wrote:I really have no larger suspicions, as there has been so little analysis so far (on my part too, but those from TWC will know that I usually dont' do it either!
Arakorn wrote:I am usually quite quiet, which makes me stand out here in a Mafia-dedicated community.
Arakorn wrote:(I am known for not being so contributive though...)
I have a tendency to make comments like this as well (albeit not related to lack of contribution), so I'll give this the benefit of the doubt.
~~~~~
Day Two. After having had time to read the game (and if scum, converse with MeMe), he starts off with
Post #382, to see if Tarhalindur means both voters of Arakorn (which were MeMe and Gorgon) are 'scum', which is a fair question since at the time, Tarhalindur only attacked MeMe and not Gorgon.
Post #387, defends his last-minute unvote, which is somewhat reasonable given that his vote was not 'necessary' for a lynch and even if scum, voting anybody else would not have saved Dead Rikimaru by that point once soupfly switched for self-preservation purposes. Unfortunately, we get no immediate commentary on the MeMe "lock-on"; he does not comment on Tarhalindur, and he does not comment on MeMe. After Tarhalindur claims, he
votes for MeMe.
The vote is to be expected from both town or scum, but his comment of "at least we'll get a confirmation on his role next morning... That is unless someone has protective powers to protect Tar" suggests that
if
Arakorn is scum, he was certainly going to be trying to kill Tarhalindur that night as opposed to Doc-hunting. He
does
suggest talking more in
Post #396, which I consider pro-town
except
for that if he wanted to
wait
to lynch MeMe, he also should have
unvoted
. Upon MeMe self-voting, he claims confusion in
Post #416. And even though MeMe needed only one more vote for a lynch, he
did not unvote
. His actions (voting MeMe) are contrary to his words (don't lynch MeMe yet).
~~~~~
Day Three. Gives what his probably his most 'substantive' post so far in this reread with
Post #454, which sadly does not comment on any live players.
Some soft WIFOM tossed out in
Post #460, although in this case I think it is merited. MeMe had self-voted claiming "I had to try", so I find it doubtful that given Arakorn continued voting for MeMe, he was not "defending her". It is more likely (given his bifurcation of actions and words pointed out above) he was trying to make sure she got lynched so that he would not have to comment on the game for another day.
Claims to be 'fine' with soupfly's idea in
Post #475, and wants Tar to decide on the lynch in
Post #482 (in effect, another excuse to not post commentary on players). Advocates ending the day quickly (again) in
Post #499 by voting Gorgon.
~~~~~
Day Four.
Post #517 is a bit disingenuous; he questions how gorckat narrowed his suspects down to two players while doing the same thing himself. This is really the only time in the game in the reread where Arakorn has really mentioned a 'suspicion' at all, and even then it really only by 'process of elimination'. (Note: His early gorckat vote does not even seem to fit this as a suspicion, since he never presented a case and also unvoted him soon thereafter.)
A more substantial WIFOM defense in
Post #535. First, it's faulty since neither Dead Rikimaru nor Sikario8 ever voted for him, and second this WIFOM relies on the actions of
others
instead of his
own
actions.
Claims to 'still be here' in
Post #553, and offers no commentary on my analysis of gorckat, nor anything else.
Confusing WIFOM post which needs to be clarified in
Post #574, where he then limits scum-group to {gorckat and Neko}. These posts are all confusing in general; I'm not sure who is trying to refer to at all.
Post #580 still fails to explain the posts. Apparently he sticks with the {gorckat and Neko} as being the two most likely with
Post #596, which confuses me.
