Mini 533: Something wicked this way comes! Game over!

[Lowell]

/i'm here.

[Lowell]

vote zeek

[Lowell]

I don't really like YvonneSeer's last post either. What the heck does "confirm FoS" mean? Either vote or don't, but FoS doesn't mean anything. Seems like this "confirm FoS" thing is a way for scum to appear involved in a bandwagon without actually having a voting record to be used against them later on.

I agree with this sentiment exactly.

unvote, vote DS, FOS yvonne

[Lowell]

I've already explained it, Lowell, but feel free to continue your useless FoS.

Also, try to contribute more to the discussion other than voting Slayer, which is exactly what he wants.

I dont' believe that's what he wants. Why do people just assume jester anytime someone looks scummy?

[Lowell]

I really don't like how all Lowell (and soupfly) just come in, vote, and don't explain it.

I especially don't like Lowell's. Here are his only two posts:

vote zeek

I agree with this sentiment exactly.

unvote, vote DS, FOS yvonne

Yvonne said she is suspicious of DS... so claim you are suspicious of Yvonne, but you go ahead and side with her by voting for the person that she is suspicious of?

unvote; vote Lowell

My FOS on yvonne is because I believe her "suspicion" to be ingenuine. I think she's trying hard not to vote for someone while claiming she suspects them.

[Lowell]

Ok, folks, I've been lazy. Here's my take on D1.

27-34 First "argument" of the day, between DS and MichelSableheart
35- Sensfan sides w/ MS
36- QUickben sides w/ DS, votes MS [OMGUSy]
37- Zeek sides w/ MS, votes DS
38- DS votes Zeek for misrepresentation
39- OhGodMyLife calls 38 OMGUS, votes DS
42- Petunho sides with MS
46- Zeek posts lengthy rebuttal to DS
47- DS responds to 46
55-56- Yvonne (FOS), souply (vote) attack DS for setting up D2 lynch
67- soupfly talks about claiming [looks a bit like fishing]
69- OGML encourages DS to post his thoughts [looks a bit suspicious]
70-73- geraintm, MS, zeek, and yvonne posit "DS as Jester" theory
78- MS votes DS [finally!]
81- OGML unvotes DS, worries of jester [odd]
83- soupfly votes OGML for the strange unvote [good]
85- zeek says there are no vanilla townies (in response to DS's townie claim)
89- geraintm finds this VERY odd
92- Lowell votes DS, FOSs yvonne
94- Zeek votes Lowell for opportunism
99- Sweatpantsninja subs in, votes Lowell
101-109- Sensfan votes DS, FOSs yvonne; yvonne and Sensfan argue about likeliness of jester
106- sweatpantsninja votes Sensfan, for same reason as he votes Lowell
113- sweatpantsninja declares DS unlikely to be jester [inconsistent with previous votes]
115- OGML votes DS [also inconsistent with previous vote]
118- geraintm votes DS [also no longer believes he's a jester]
120- soupfly votes DS, puts him at L-1
123- zeek hammer DS
129- Sensfan chides DS for his play [looks like he already KNOWS DS is a townie]

MAIN LINES of argument:
27-42: DS, Quickben vs. MS, Zeek, Sensfan, OhGodMyLife over plausibility of early scumtell
46-51: DS vs. Zeek... continuation of above
100-110: Several players debate DS as jester

Suspicious behavior:

sweatpantsninja & OGML

both switch their stance on DS being a jester (out of nowhere), adding 4th and 5th votes.

zeek

, after accusing players of opportunism for voting DS, then hammers DS himself ALMOST IMMEDIATELY after he's put at L-1

Assessment:

unvote, vote sweatpantsninja

. He has impressed me the least since subbing in. He joined with post 99, and immediately voted Lowell (who zeek had just voted). In post 106 he has a sort of continuation on that theme, voting Sensfan for siding against him by voting DS. However, 7 posts later he says, of DS, "As to the whole jester nonsense, jester by itself is a pretty unusual role for a normal . . . a jester that has to lynch himself would be even more unusual. I really don't think he's a jester of any sort." He defended yvonne's actions (who said DS was likely a jester) then turned around and voted DS himself in the period of 7 posts.

My take on him is that he's a player who is diligently chasing popular opinion. All of his actions have been, to say the least, reactionary.

I'll add an

FOS OGML

for similar reasons. I really don't like the 110-118 stretch, where THREE different people go from thinking DS might be a jester to all of a sudden putting him at lynch -2. OGML, in particular, was active in both the discussions about DS as jester AND the quick bandwagon based on the unlikeliness of DS being jester. OGML, like sweatpantsninja, seems to be chasing the safe and popular movements of others.

One other thing. Sensfan's post 129. Care to explain post 129? You seemed to know that we had mislynched before anyone else...

[Lowell]

recieved prod. activity is going to have to wait a few days, unfortunately.

[Lowell]

I'll be around as much as I can, but likely not much until the new year.

Also, TSPN, nice OMGUS.

[Lowell]

Nice MSAD (Mafia Scum Acronym Defense, of course).

Snarkiness aside, I'll be gone until the 2nd as well, so my vote will stand until we both get back and you can explain yourself. I don't really think you're in danger of being lynched anyway.

So, uh, I'm confused. You DO want me lynched, though... right???

[Lowell]

I'm prodded. It felt weird. A little violating. I'll post Monday, I promise.

[Lowell]

Here we go. From where I left off at the top of D2:

143- TSPN votes zeek
144- MSable votes Lowell for ignoring zeek & misrepresentation of TSPN
145- geraintm credits scum w/ good kill. empty post (?)
151- sensfan doesn't buy zeek as miller
155- OGML votes soupfly for blaming zeek for D1 kill
158- TSPN agrees w/ sensfan
160- quickben votes zeek
169- soupfly expands case against zeek
170- zeek does the same for soupfly
175- petunho votes soupfly
179- MSable unvotes, votes soupfly
181- Soupfly responds to accusations of piling on zeek for D1 lynch
186- MSable unvotes, votes Lowell
197- petunho supports zeek's actions, feared D1 self-hammering jester
198- soupfly unvotes, votes petunho
202- Msable supports zeek again, cites unlikeliness of unprovoked miller claim
204- ditto (good point)
207- TSPN unvotes, votes Lowell for lurking
225- OGML votes geraintm based on MSable's arguments
234- soupfly unvotes petunho

A few things:
1) I'm sold on MSable's reasons for zeek's claim being true. I don't really see what benefit scum would have for breadcrumbimg miller, a suspicious sounding role.
2)

FOS Sable

. I don't like (A) Sable's insistence that we all believe zeek, and his growing bond with zeek in the process. It looks like scum trying to cozy up to and protect a townie. Those who don't believe the zeek claim, or only maybe believe the zeek claim, are fully justified in their equivocations. Either Sable is just has a much broader understanding of the game, OR, he entered the debate from the position of someone inclined to believe zeek. (B) Sable's increasing vocal attitude on D2. Much more than D1, he's driving conversation. On N1, we lost a cop, and the mafia have more control on the game. (C) His voting habits. He voted soupfly, then quickly unvoted. It could be, as he said, that he was satisfied with soupfly's answer. But it could also be that for all his bluster, he just didn't want to get into a long discussion about it. Since then, he's been voting me. And while I won't begrudge a person for voting me, he seems to spend more time on meta-issues, or "do we believe zeek" issues, than really expanding the case and making a strong argument.
3)

FOS geraintm

. 145 is just a weird post, and many of his posts have the same thread of just skimming the surface of what is happening. He's around, he makes clear, but I'm not sure he's actually added anything.
4)

FOS OGML

. Twice he has readily followed MSable's advice. Both in regards to the zeek/soupfly debate, and in regard to the case on geraintm. I can't see BOTH OGML and Sable being scum (there'd be more distancing), but I think that if Sable is town, OGML is trying to piggy-back on the most vocal town player and stay on the good side of things. If Sable is scum, I think OGML is just being lazy and caught up in a vocal scum speaking for the town.

unvote

As ever, I'll try to stay more involved.

[Lowell]

4)

FOS OGML

. Twice he has readily followed MSable's advice. Both in regards to the zeek/soupfly debate, and in regard to the case on geraintm. I can't see BOTH OGML and Sable being scum (there'd be more distancing), but I think that if Sable is town, OGML is trying to piggy-back on the most vocal town player and stay on the good side of things. If Sable is scum, I think OGML is just being lazy and caught up in a vocal scum speaking for the town.

Or if we're both town, you've just set yourself up to try and mislynch one of us after the other's untimely death. Its true that my vote was based largely on MS's argument, but you conveniently ignored yet again the problems I raised with your first list, and the suspicions myself and others have had of you. There seems to be a lot of important discussion that you've omitted from your summary. So there you have it, my very own reasons to vote for someone.

Unvote, Vote: Lowell

Soupfly, hope your recovery goes more smoothly than the ride on your snowboard must have.

Or, if you're both town, I'm just wrong. Not this time, though, I don't think.

vote OGML

I'm not surprised you ignored the idea of you being scum, but I am a little surprised you ignored the idea of Sable being scum. Just, generally, not a big fan of your reaction here.

[Lowell]

^^^^^^

I like this post. Consider Quickben added to my

FOS

list.

[Lowell]

That's simul-post poetic justice for your wisecrack, sable.

[Lowell]

TSPN, I'm lazy. Do me a favor and tell me what you want me to answer, and I'll be happy to oblige. Your vote sitting on me looks like you just don't want to get involved in what is happening around you.

[Lowell]

Okay thanks. Will do.

[Lowell]

Here we go. As much as I can find. This will take a few posts. This is post 144.

Also some quotes from his game summary:
Lowell wrote:
69- OGML encourages DS to post his thoughts [looks a bit suspicious]
Why does it look suspicious? As Zeek's quicklynch proved, waiting till L-1 was a bad idea for DS.

Because at the time it looked like he was trying to pass the responsibility of thinking onto someone else. It fits the trend of OGML being around but just passing the ball every time it comes to him.

Lowell wrote:
106- sweatpantsninja votes Sensfan, for same reason as he votes Lowell
He voted you for an unexplained 3rd vote. He voted Sensfan for 2 factual errors. How is that the same reason?

I think what I was referring to was his voting myself and sensfan for not believing the jester thing. But who cares. Either way, he argues that a third vote is dangerous (it isn't) and uses that as a justification for voting me, which is itself opportunistic.

Lowell wrote:
113- sweatpantsninja declares DS unlikely to be jester [inconsistent with previous votes]
I don't see the inconsistency. He stated in earlier posts that he didn't believe DS to be either scum or jester. Neither of his two previous votes where made on the assumption that DS was a jester.

That's not how I read his defense of DS.

Lowell wrote:
118- geraintm votes DS [also no longer believes he's a jester]
When did geraintm believe DS was a jester?

I have no idea. Maybe it should read "also does not believe he's a jester", I can't remember.

Lowell wrote:
129- Sensfan chides DS for his play [looks like he already KNOWS DS is a townie]
Not surprisingly, since DS did a full claim including explanation in #128.

Maybe, but it seems strange to take a claim at its word before a person has OFFICIALLY been lynched. You never know what could happen w/ votes not counting, being missed, being formatted incorrectly, whatever. I've been in games where, even after they're lynched, scum claim they're town and chide the group for lynching them. I'm sure SensFan has too, so to go from "I feel good about this" (127) to "So you were town? boo" (129) seems a bit off.

I also dislike that Lowell's summary does not include Zeek's suspicion of a jester who has to hammer himself, which explains WHY Zeek hammered almost immediately.

I didn't take the jester thing seriously, as I find it unlikely to exist in a small, normalish game. So I dont' really care what qualifications people put on a role that doesn't exist.

[Lowell]

This is post 240. I'll put my comments in bold, since I had trouble formatting the last one.

A much better post then your last one with content, Lowell. Still, I have some questions.

First of all, why does your summary include all votes and unvotes, except for SensFan voting Zeek in post #171?

I probably just forgot. Also, I left out some votes that didn't run with the flow of the day, votes I didn't have any comment on.

Secondly, where does OGML follow me in regards to the Zeek/soupfly debate? Our opinions agreed, that's true, but OGML already voted soupfly in post #155. At that point in time, I had been arguing mainly that Zeek was playing poorly. As far as I can see, he was not following my advice there.

I read it the other way. To me it was, MSH posts an argument, then OGML says "ooh, good" and joins it. Twice.

Now, let's take a look at your reasons to FOS me.

(A) Sable's insistence that we all believe zeek, and his growing bond with zeek in the process. It looks like scum trying to cozy up to and protect a townie. Those who don't believe the zeek claim, or only maybe believe the zeek claim, are fully justified in their equivocations. Either Sable is just has a much broader understanding of the game, OR, he entered the debate from the position of someone inclined to believe zeek.

Zeek had indeed been playing badly. So had DS on day 1. On day 1, DS was mislynched because of it. On day 2, the bandwagon against Zeek was quickly moving forward rapidly, in much the same way as the bandwagon against DS, with QuickBen and SensFan jumping based on not very solid reasoning.

Early in day 2, I took the time to look closely at Zeek's miller claim. He mentioned another game were he had been miller. A game where there had been no vanilla's, but where the SK claimed vanilla and was caught by him. Looking at that game (Cartman mafia, mini theme 472) revealed that everything was exactly as he told it had been, making his explanations for his behaviour a lot more believable. It also explained his claim that he did not believe there were vanilla's completely, a claim that had completely baffled me because I could not think of any role that would make someone believe that. I also found it extremely unlikely that scum would make the no vanilla townies claim. If Zeek was scum, it would be simply too much risk for too little payoff. I was convinced Zeek was telling the truth.

Therefore, I also believed that the bandwagon on him was a bandwagon leading to a mislynch. However, the bandwagon was moving forward rapidly, in much the same way the wagon against DS had done. If I didn't act, it was quite likely that we would have another mislynch. It's not scum buddying up, it's town doing what he can to prevent a mislynch.

No, I don't think that's true. There are MANY people who either DO believe the miller claim, or are unsure enough to think that lynching zeek would be a bad idea. I think you're overestimating the chances of a quicklynch (D1 notwithstanding). To me it reads as you trying to take a "bold" position in defense of zeek because you know something that we do not. Your certainty is the issue, not your opinion.

Of course, I could be scum trying to gain a town player's trust. (Zeek, if you decide to trust me, please don't let the sole reason be that I argued in your favour.) However, wouldn't it be a much more logical play for me as scum to keep a bit more low profile and see if the bandwagon against Zeek does indeed reach that mislynch it seems to be heading to?

Again, I disagree. "Keeping a low profile" doesn't work as a means of surviving the game, at least not in one this size. Also, scum needs to earn people's trust... which is the whole point of buddying.

(B) Sable's increasing vocal attitude on D2. Much more than D1, he's driving conversation. On N1, we lost a cop, and the mafia have more control on the game.

Am I? Day 1 began with an argument between DS and me. Also, I was the one who originally brought up the possibility of DS being a jester. Not that that was such a great addition to the discussion, but I believe a was already relatively vocal during day 1.

Bringing up the idea of a jester is different than your play today. You have seemed bolder today than yesterday. Yes, it could just be that you're town feeling the urgency of lynching right, but I don't want to ignore the other possibility.

I guess you are seeing 2 things.
On day 1, the discussion focussed mainly on DS, where I agreed with most players, giving me a lot less to argue about. On day 2, in the discussion about Zeek and soupfly, there were more people I disagreed with, giving me more posts to reply to.
The other effect you are seeing is that of the holidays. Most people post mainly from work or school, causing their participation to drop during holidays. For me, it's the other way around. I post mainly from home, and during holidays, I spent most of my time behind the computer. I'm checking MS more often, have more time to read through the thread, and have more time to post.

Again, see above, that could all be true.

(C) His voting habits. He voted soupfly, then quickly unvoted. It could be, as he said, that he was satisfied with soupfly's answer. But it could also be that for all his bluster, he just didn't want to get into a long discussion about it. Since then, he's been voting me. And while I won't begrudge a person for voting me, he seems to spend more time on meta-issues, or "do we believe zeek" issues, than really expanding the case and making a strong argument.

I've already explained my voting and unvoting for soupfly. Note that, if I didn't want to get in a long discussion about it, I should not have made a long post on the topic such as post #186. Those usually tend to cause a bit of discussion.

No, it seemed like you wanted to get your opinion in play, and then get out.

[Lowell]

I find it just a little bit jarring the way geraintm uses the word "townie" all over the place. Maybe it's nothing, just sayin'.

[Lowell]

Hmmm, he put DS at L-1 after I said I would hammer

and

then immediately said "if he's town..." to imply that he already knows DS is going to be town and he's just trying to get the bandwagon rolling against me for when I do hammer.

you really are dense aren't you?

ever stop and think that we're both probably townie because scum would have no reason to get caught up in a controversial lynch of a player who was going to get lynched anyway. i've already admitted that maybe my play wasn't great as far as trying to set you up for a scummy move. can't you realize that your entire play to prevent the self-lynching jester from winning was completely ridiculous? are you still trying to convince everybody that its okay to prejustify a move that benefits the town in no way?

people aren't buying my wagon or yours because what we did was more just stupid play rather than scummy play. in my defense i'd been drinking at the time of the post so it made alot more sense to me then. in retrospect it was all a pointless exercise on both our parts. i set you up to do something stupid (which you did), but which brought no tangible benefit to the town because ultimately i probably didn't out scum...just an inexperienced player.

WIFOMiest. Post. Ever.

[Lowell]

^^^^

Interesting. I missed this completely.

(don't all act shocked at once)

unvote, vote skruffs

[Lowell]

Received prod. Sorry, have been sick. Will try to get back in this.

[Lowell]

I'm still here. I'll have comments when life settles down a bit in a few days.

[Lowell]

The skruffs attack on zeek is a bit bizairre. I dont' quite get what he's telling me that I don't already know. Still, he gets points for gusto. I don't buy him as scum.