Mini 1830 - Game Over

[VictorDeAngelo]

What do reads list have to do with conflict?

Conflict causes people to talk and interact. From these interactions, reads can be formed, and refined.

I think you got cause effect the wrong way around here. The quote here was a response to the idea that readlists create the conflict.

Yeek.Day one is something like 40 pages.

Yeah, well I've had longer day 1s. Personally I prefer more shorter/more direct day ones.

Longer ones will give you more to work with, and give scum more chance of somehow slipping up...

Well perhaps, but I'm not one to rely on scum slipping up. I'd much prefer to root them out.

=================

On another topic, can anyone actually point to a forum mafia game that has been solved mathematically. I've heard a lot of talk about probability/randomness etc from people, and I wonder if there's something I should be reading.

[CCC]

If I have an ulterior motive I'm not going to admit to it. If I'm lazy I'm not going to admit that either.

Why not?

Do you really want me to explain it. Because if you do, it's probably going to sound quite patronising and not actually lead us anywhere towards catching scum.

This is the second time you've tried to shut down a line of questioning, the first being here.

I'm not sure if this is just how you play, or if it should be taken as indicative of a desire to shut down questioning more completely. But either way, I thinkit makes you look more likely scum than Square World, so...

VOTE: VictorDeAngelo

Conflict causes people to talk and interact. From these interactions, reads can be formed, and refined.

I think you got cause effect the wrong way around here. The quote here was a response to the idea that readlists create the conflict.

I think you and I are reading gerryoat's original post very differently.

It looks to me like he is saying that conflict causes reads (and thus readlists), and was thus asking Grendel why he was interested in creating conflict after he (Grendel) had already produced a readlist... so the cause->effect link was always from conflict to reads, not vice versa.

On another topic, can anyone actually point to a forum mafia game that has been solved mathematically. I've heard a lot of talk about probability/randomness etc from people, and I wonder if there's something I should be reading.

I can't. Math is a tool, and one that looks like it should be fairly useful once I have decent data to put into it (i.e. after day one).

[Gamma Emerald]

Newbie games have nine players, two of whom are Mafia. Here we have eleven players.

Three mafia sounds about right to me.

CCC, you said MAFIA here, not SCUM.

[CCC]

Newbie games have nine players, two of whom are Mafia. Here we have eleven players.

Three mafia sounds about right to me.

CCC, you said MAFIA here, not SCUM.

Huh. You're right. So I did.

I misremembered my own words. I apologise for the oversight.

[VictorDeAngelo]

If I have an ulterior motive I'm not going to admit to it. If I'm lazy I'm not going to admit that either.

Why not?

Do you really want me to explain it. Because if you do, it's probably going to sound quite patronising and not actually lead us anywhere towards catching scum.

This is the second time you've tried to shut down a line of questioning, the first being here.

I'm not sure if this is just how you play, or if it should be taken as indicative of a desire to shut down questioning more completely. But either way, I thinkit makes you look more likely scum than Square World, so...

VOTE: VictorDeAngelo

I have no problem answering sensible, reasonable question. Snake's question is not one of those.

Conflict causes people to talk and interact. From these interactions, reads can be formed, and refined.

I think you got cause effect the wrong way around here. The quote here was a response to the idea that readlists create the conflict.

I think you and I are reading gerryoat's original post very differently.

It looks to me like he is saying that conflict causes reads (and thus readlists), and was thus asking Grendel why he was interested in creating conflict after he (Grendel) had already produced a readlist... so the cause->effect link was always from conflict to reads, not vice versa.

Ok, then I'm not sure I'm reading the original post correctly. Maybe the point doesn't stand after all.

[Square World]

@SquareWorld I'd like to see some reads from you.

tip: i vote the first non-townread post above mine

if that's not clear enough, we can play popcorn reads

[Grendel]

@Grendel let's play a game. I'll say someone's name

in italics.

in your next post you say what you think of that person and then say someone else's name. In my next post I'll say what I think of THAT person, and so on.

VictorDeAngelo

I'd rather do everything simultaneously, but if one person at a time better fits your pace then that's okay.

Victor is something of a null read for me. His town read on Gamma bothers me, but It seems most ppl are cool with Gamma so that tr might not lead anywhere, (that is assuming Gam is scumz). His interaction with CCC is weird in a way I can't seem to pin point yet. I think the worst thing about Victor is that he hasn't pushed the person he is currently voting, Rhazbash, at all. Instead opting to have this convo with CCC that doesn't appear to be going anywhere. So a few odd things, but nothing condemning. And no, I really don't agree with you proposed case on Victor. In fact I can even see how he wasn't bought with you Gamma unvote, you dropped that scum read

fast

dude.

You've already said that your cool with Gamma. So how about...

Gerryoats

, and or

Rhazbash

[Eggman]

Vote Count 1.04

Manuel87

: RhazhBash

RhazhBash

: VictorDeAngelo, gerryoat

Gamma Emerald

: Grendel

CCC

: Square World, Gamma Emerald

VictorDeAngelo

: eagerSnake, CCC

V/LA: The_Jester, (expired on 2016-09-19 00:00:00)

With 11 players alive, it takes

6

for a lynch.
The deadline for this day is (expired on 2016-09-26 18:00:00).

Huntress replaces GreenNope.

[Grendel]

If I have an ulterior motive I'm not going to admit to it. If I'm lazy I'm not going to admit that either.

Why not?

Do you really want me to explain it. Because if you do, it's probably going to sound quite patronising and not actually lead us anywhere towards catching scum.

This is the second time you've tried to shut down a line of questioning, the first being here.

I'm not sure if this is just how you play, or if it should be taken as indicative of a desire to shut down questioning more completely. But either way, I thinkit makes you look more likely scum than Square World, so...

VOTE: VictorDeAngelo

Wait. So you are scum reading Victor for halting discussion when Gerry basically did the same thing with posts 93 and 109 when he was talking crap about early game reads.

Why does one ping you but not the other?

[Grendel]

@Victor

Did you ever elaborate why you town read Gamma? I don't believe you did, and I'd appericate if you could do that for me.

[eagerSnake]

Victor is something of a null read for me. His town read on Gamma bothers me, but It seems most ppl are cool with Gamma so that tr might not lead anywhere, (that is assuming Gam is scumz). His interaction with CCC is weird in a way I can't seem to pin point yet. I think the worst thing about Victor is that he hasn't pushed the person he is currently voting, Rhazbash, at all. Instead opting to have this convo with CCC that doesn't appear to be going anywhere. So a few odd things, but nothing condemning. And no, I really don't agree with you proposed case on Victor. In fact I can even see how he wasn't bought with you Gamma unvote, you dropped that scum read fast dude.

I agree with Victor not pursuing his scumread on RhazhBash, or pursuing any other scumread for that matter. Which is funny because he says this:

Well perhaps, but I'm not one to rely on scum slipping up. I'd much prefer to root them out.

Post-by-Post Analysis of VictorDeAngelo:
12 RVS vote on eagerSnake
40 Setup spec, asks eagerSnake for reads
74 States

vote on eagerSnake is now serious
90 Gives reason for vote being serious "shifts reads easily." states he "gets more bad feels" from RhazhBash's post 89, votes RhazhBash
111 Asks CCC for more examples of Jester dodging questions, now thinks Grendel is town, disagrees with Grendels scumread on Gamma
126 Asks Gamma if he finds CCC's post suspicious
137 Assumes my question isn't serious
142 Explanation of his assumption, says he won't admit to being lazy or having an ulterior motive
155 Talk about what is important D1
188 Asks gerryoat what readslists have to do with conflict, states he reads RhazhBash's 87 as defending eagerSnake from him, Asks an unsensible, and unreasonable question to CCC
199 States his answer to eagerSnake's question will be "patronising and not actually lead us anywhere towards catching scum"
200 "I'm not one to rely on scum slipping up. I'd much prefer to root them out."
204 Says eagerSnakes question is not sensible or reasonable

@Grendel will get you my read on gerryoat next

[Gamma Emerald]

@Gerry: I think I'd like to do the same thing Grendel and Eager are doing, if that's okay with you?

[gerryoat]

@Gerry: I think I'd like to do the same thing Grendel and Eager are doing, if that's okay with you?

Uh, ok lol. You start

[gerryoat]

Victor is something of a null read for me. His town read on Gamma bothers me, but It seems most ppl are cool with Gamma so that tr might not lead anywhere, (that is assuming Gam is scumz). His interaction with CCC is weird in a way I can't seem to pin point yet. I think the worst thing about Victor is that he hasn't pushed the person he is currently voting, Rhazbash, at all. Instead opting to have this convo with CCC that doesn't appear to be going anywhere. So a few odd things, but nothing condemning. And no, I really don't agree with you proposed case on Victor. In fact I can even see how he wasn't bought with you Gamma unvote, you dropped that scum read fast dude.

I agree with Victor not pursuing his scumread on RhazhBash, or pursuing any other scumread for that matter. Which is funny because he says this:

Well perhaps, but I'm not one to rely on scum slipping up. I'd much prefer to root them out.

Post-by-Post Analysis of VictorDeAngelo:
12 RVS vote on eagerSnake
40 Setup spec, asks eagerSnake for reads
74 States

vote on eagerSnake is now serious
90 Gives reason for vote being serious "shifts reads easily." states he "gets more bad feels" from RhazhBash's post 89, votes RhazhBash
111 Asks CCC for more examples of Jester dodging questions, now thinks Grendel is town, disagrees with Grendels scumread on Gamma
126 Asks Gamma if he finds CCC's post suspicious
137 Assumes my question isn't serious
142 Explanation of his assumption, says he won't admit to being lazy or having an ulterior motive
155 Talk about what is important D1
188 Asks gerryoat what readslists have to do with conflict, states he reads RhazhBash's 87 as defending eagerSnake from him, Asks an unsensible, and unreasonable question to CCC
199 States his answer to eagerSnake's question will be "patronising and not actually lead us anywhere towards catching scum"
200 "I'm not one to rely on scum slipping up. I'd much prefer to root them out."
204 Says eagerSnakes question is not sensible or reasonable

@Grendel will get you my read on gerryoat next

I think this is town. All of this shows genuine scumhunting and tries to find contradictions

[eagerSnake]

You've already said that your cool with Gamma. So how about...

Gerryoats, and or Rhazbash

I kind of like gerryoat so far. He has been consistent, hasn't done anything inherently scummy. He has opened himself up to attacks from others more than once, he clearly states his opinions on others. Some things could be taken as buddying, but I don't think it's the case. I would like to see him push his scumreads more, would like to see where he goes with them. I don't think he'd be a good lynch for today.

Post-by-Post of gerryoat
15 RVS comment
16 Asks eagerSnake if he's from EM
44 Asks Manuel about avatar
45 Agrees to do study buddy with Gamma
46 Off-topic with eagerSnake
47 States a policy of not taking anything serious for first 4 pages
48 Setup spec, discourages talk about PRs
65 Really doubts 3 mafia + 3rd party combination
72 Asks eagerSnake why Gamma feels town, when he feels like he's said the same things, repeats self about PRs
75 Asks Victor why his vote is now serious, asks for an explanation
93 Calls BS on anyone who has a serious scumread 4 pages in, accuses anyone with a hard FoS of fake scumhunting
100 Calls RhazhBash's 87 the "worst post so far"
109 Tells Grendel he doesn't see how he gets all of those reads 3 pages into a game
130 Votes RhazhBash based on what he said earlier in 100
158 Discourages talk about meta, says to focus on game
167 Explains to Grendel why he is weary of the early reads people claim to have, states he doesn't scumread grendel, brings up his vote placed on RhazhBash
168 He likes how easily Gamma changes his read on him, Agrees with Grendel that he hasn't done anything to warrant a townread
169 He likes Grendel trying to get conflict in the game, slightly townreads Grendel, states Grendel's actions and words are off
187 An FoS on RhazhBash, repeats his vote placement, Says Grendel has had townie lines, says he's confident lynching RhazhBash most right now

Ok, now do

CCC

[Gamma Emerald]

Okay.

Manuel87

[Grendel]

Good stuff Snake. Alright let me look at CCC...

[Grendel]

The first thing about CCC I want to address is his overt doubt casting on himself. Lower confedance, and second guessing are to be expected on D1, but CCC announces it before all his early scum reads. To the point it is no longer resembling town paranoia, but a fear of commitment. Almost like padding the floor if his read falls through, or if his scum read flips town he could distance himself from the cadaver. I've highlighted what I'm talking about in red--

Spoiler: Incredibly minor

I'm getting slight scumtwitches from a few players.

Not enough to seriously consider any of them as likely scum yet

, but the needles on my scum detectors are twitching slightly.

Yes, it's

incredibly minor

. The only reason I'm even considering him is because I don't have any scumreads better than

incredibly minor

.

Insignificantly scummier. I have no significant reads at all.

Also, what do you mean by "self-metaing"?

CCC was scum reading Gamma longer then Square. So his square scum read getting brought to the forefront is a little odd. I think it must have been a pressure vote. There really isn't enough going on with Square to get a read on him imo.

Spoiler: sqr

In my previous post, I suggested that VictorDeAngelo and Gamma Emerald were pinging as

very slightly scum

. To that list I will now add GreenNope and Square World; the first for being completely absent, and the second for providing extremely short posts with no reasons for his votes. From these four, I will elect to park my vote (for the moment) on:

VOTE: Square World

I really like this post. I kind of like hearing statistical aspects of mafia. And I felt like he understood what I was trying to do with the reaction analysis.

Spoiler: math

Do you like/dislike anything else in 102?

I generally dont like when ppl say "there are 1-2 scum in this group of people" when the group they are talking about is exactly 50% of the players (self not included)
Which in return means he also thinks there are 1-2 scum in the other group.

@RhazhBashu: would you mind answering my question in 92

In this game, assuming the existence of three scum, the odds of a randomly selected group of five people (if a single known Town player is removed from consideration) containing zero scum is 16.807%. This is the same as the odds of the randomly selected group containing three scum.

Thus, the odds of five randomly selected players (after putting aside one known Town player) containing either exactly one or exactly two scum is 66.386%.

If there are two or four scum, these numbers change somewhat.

But Grendel didn't just say that in 102. He took his five players, and he

ranked us

in order of perceived scumminess. He didn't just say "one or two of these five people are scum". He said "of these five people, this is how scummy I think they are, and this is why."

Also I think I should point out that CCC blunders a lot. But his blunders and contradictions look more like something a town would mess up on then scum. Usally scum are more... "aware" of little contradictions and avoid them, whereas town doesn't obsess over what they are saying nearly as much as scum would. It sort of falls under the mentality that scum care more about appearances then town. Which I don't entirely agree with, (I care about my appearance as both alignments), but I do think that town cares less about screwing up something like accusing others for something they themselves have done.

But what is so weird is that CCC

is super cautions with his scum reads

. So I'm trying to figure out why CCC appears not afraid of contradicting himself, but worried about his reads being wrong.

Spoiler: derp

Newbie games have nine players, two of whom are Mafia. Here we have eleven players.

Three mafia sounds about right to me.

CCC, you said MAFIA here, not SCUM.

Huh. You're right. So I did.

I misremembered my own words. I apologise for the oversight.

Here he voted Victor. Once again missing Gamma. Maybe I'm paying more attention to this because I'm scum reading Gamma. AFAIK, CCC never withdrew his suspions of Gamma, had a town read on me and I was dogging Gamma in the last few days. So why didn't CCC show any interest in Gamma lynch?

Spoiler: dodge

If I have an ulterior motive I'm not going to admit to it. If I'm lazy I'm not going to admit that either.

Why not?

Do you really want me to explain it. Because if you do, it's probably going to sound quite patronising and not actually lead us anywhere towards catching scum.

This is the second time you've tried to shut down a line of questioning, the first being here.

I'm not sure if this is just how you play, or if it should be taken as indicative of a desire to shut down questioning more completely. But either way, I thinkit makes you look more likely scum than Square World, so...

VOTE: VictorDeAngelo

Ultimately, I'm still very null. I've seen how he eats rope in two other games. He gets lynched early a lot. his poor rhetoric, and awkward pushes make him an easy target. I am not going to vote CCC today.

Another thing, I don't like how he had a scum read on Gamma, but didn't seem interested when I was pushing Gamma. It makes me wonder about the possibility of them both being scum who are distancing each other. I'll save hypothetical scum teams for later though since this post is getting long.

[Grendel]

@Snake

Now do

Rhazbash

[Gamma Emerald]

@Grendel: CCC has been scumreading me, and he's been pushing it too, though mostly in his defense.

[gerryoat]

Okay.

Manuel87

Okay, so I guess i just quote what i think about them so far.

My vote on eagerSnake is now a serious vote.

This, however, can only be a few things:
A lazy town
A scum
A town with an ulterior motive

Can you explain why you think this can be scum?

Here, I like how he tried to get more reads from eager. It felt like town trying to get more information from someone by asking them to justify their reads.

UNVOTE:

Manuel, who looks the most suspicious, in your opinion?

I would say CCC.
I didnt like the statement about math. He is already making excuses for pushing on town day 1.
Later he misreps and votes you for dodging a lot of questions. There was one question you didnt answer but gave an explanation why you wouldnt do.
It just doesnt fit into him saying he takes a mathematik aproach of the game.

When asked to give a fos, he outs one, and gives a semi good reason as to why he has this fos. It wasn't that strong, but that's to be expected that far in.

@The_Jester: What are your thoughts on Grendel so far?
@Grendel: When you made your read on eagerSnake in 102 was that considering him being your buddy or was that a serious read on his play?

Here he is trying to get more information from others to clarify and backup the reads they have about them.

Do you like/dislike anything else in 102?

I generally dont like when ppl say "there are 1-2 scum in this group of people" when the group they are talking about is exactly 50% of the players (self not included)
Which in return means he also thinks there are 1-2 scum in the other group.

@RhazhBashu: would you mind answering my question in 92

Here is answers a question, and then gives another question (to my scumread which is always good :p)

Even though he's only had 10 posts, I'd say he's been trying to get others to speak more as well. I personally have him null leaning town right now.

Can you tell me your reads on RhazhBashu, gamma?

(sorry idk how to do spoilers and stuff yet, so sorry for the big block quotes)

[Huntress]

Hi there!

Will read up and post later today.

[Gamma Emerald]

About RhazhBash:
I feel like he's not really adding to much to the conversation. His most recent post was to defend himself against an accusation. This makes me think he could be scum.
(By the way, I don't really do multiquote megaposts)

CCC

[CCC]

@SquareWorld I'd like to see some reads from you.

tip: i vote the first non-townread post above mine

if that's not clear enough, we can play popcorn reads

I don't know how popcorn reads work. Would playing it get some useful reads out of you?

[CCC]

This is the second time you've tried to shut down a line of questioning, the first being here.

I'm not sure if this is just how you play, or if it should be taken as indicative of a desire to shut down questioning more completely. But either way, I thinkit makes you look more likely scum than Square World, so...

VOTE: VictorDeAngelo

Wait. So you are scum reading Victor for halting discussion when Gerry basically did the same thing with posts 93 and 109 when he was talking crap about early game reads.

Why does one ping you but not the other?

Victor is shutting down questions aimed specifically at himself. Not only is he not answering them, but he's making statements intended to disparage eagersnake for having asked them in the first place. Not to suggest that snake is scum; but rather to suggest that snake is an idiot.

Gerryoats' posts said nothing about

discussion

. Rather, he disparaged the idea of anyone forming an early scumread - suggesting that he has no problem with discussion that might lead to a later scumread, he just doesn't see he anyone can possibly have enough information to form a firm scumread yet. So he's not shutting down discussion, just marking early scumreads as 'suspicious' and to suggest that those who make them might be scum.

Victor's statements are thus pinging me as potential scum, while Gerry's are neutral at worst.