Mini 1830 - Game Over

[Grendel]

Okay.
Null - Gerry (seems reasonable, but hasn't really added much yet.)

I mainly said that because he diffused everyone's getting up in arms about your reads.

I like how that's all it takes for you to change your read on me. But, I actually agree with him. I was actually going to ask you why you TR me, cause I haven't done anything so far that would warrant a townread so far.

How about you vote Gamma with me?

[RhazhBash]

I'm not scumreading Gamma right now, fyi. That part about me distancing eager by Townreading him is complete BS.

[Gamma Emerald]

I was primarily referring to the calling of our conversation about setup spec fluff.

[CCC]

I guess I am pessimistic about day one. Later days, when there's some decent info to work with, I consider far more useful.

It happens:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=60961

Yeek.Day one is something like 40 pages.

I'm sure there's more. That said games aren't won on day 1. What's important on day 1 is getting that everyone contributes to that all important first lynch. It doesn't have to be well informed (as town's don't have a lot of info) but it in itself provides info in later days.

Oh, quite. Don't get me wrong - day one provides a lot of useful and important information for future days, and I really shouldn't minimise that. I don't think much of the day one

lynch

, but day one

info

can make the game. So, yes, discussion on day one is important.

If we get a scumflip today that's great. But if we get a townflip, oh well. You can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs.

It's a bit unpleasant for the broken egg, though.

[CCC]

CCC

- I mentioned the part about him being consistent on scumteam size as well, but here’s the interesting part: he attacked me for my comments about it. Got anything to say for yourself, bud?

What you did was suggest that there were either three mafia, or three mafia and a serial killer. This carries the weak implication that you knew there were three mafia, but weren't sure about the SK. It's a terribly weak case, but I have no even halfway decent cases.

What I did was suggest there might be three scum. I didn't suggest any other scenarios. I don't think this carries the same implications.

[Gamma Emerald]

I think your post was worse because you ONLY stated that there was likely 3 mafia, without branching out into other bits of speculation. And I never said it HAD to be a Serial Killer. A Lyncher or Survivor would be perfectly fine.

[CCC]

Also, what do you mean by "self-metaing"?

In the post right after 121 you referenced how you math in other games. And I think you did it a couple other times this game to. By "it" I mean you have said, "Well I do that all the time so its not AI" in response to accusations. I don't like that because it doesn't refute the argument so much as it lampshades it. Lamp shading a problem doesn't make it go away. Saying you do something as either alignment doesn't make you town.

...let me rephrase that then. I wasn't trying to say "Well I do that all the time so its not AI". I was trying to say "Well, that's how I play as Town".

I don't have a good idea of how I play as scum yet. All of the completed games I've been in, I've been Town.

[Gamma Emerald]

Also, what do you mean by "self-metaing"?

In the post right after 121 you referenced how you math in other games. And I think you did it a couple other times this game to. By "it" I mean you have said, "Well I do that all the time so its not AI" in response to accusations. I don't like that because it doesn't refute the argument so much as it lampshades it. Lamp shading a problem doesn't make it go away. Saying you do something as either alignment doesn't make you town.

...let me rephrase that then. I wasn't trying to say "Well I do that all the time so its not AI". I was trying to say "Well, that's how I play as Town".

I don't have a good idea of how I play as scum yet. All of the completed games I've been in, I've been Town.

Well in my last game with Grendel, it was the same for him. I don't think Grendel is scum this time, but I DEFINITELY think you are.

[CCC]

I think your post was worse because you ONLY stated that there was likely 3 mafia, without branching out into other bits of speculation. And I never said it HAD to be a Serial Killer. A Lyncher or Survivor would be perfectly fine.

No, I said three

scum

. That could be three mafia (and likely is), or it could be two mafia and a serial killer.

Your original post (and now this post supports that) look like you know there's three mafia, and are speculating about what else there might be.

[CCC]

Well in my last game with Grendel, it was the same for him. I don't think Grendel is scum this time, but I DEFINITELY think you are.

Believe it or not, this fits my Town meta too. Every game I've ever been Town in, I got lynched day one.

(This may be why I think so little of day one lynches).

[Gamma Emerald]

Well in my last game with Grendel, it was the same for him. I don't think Grendel is scum this time, but I DEFINITELY think you are.

Believe it or not, this fits my Town meta too. Every game I've ever been Town in, I got lynched day one.

(This may be why I think so little of day one lynches).

Say what now? You don't think much of Day 1 lynches? Well I do. You can't throw simply rule out the Day 1 lynch, that's crazy.

[Gamma Emerald]

I think your post was worse because you ONLY stated that there was likely 3 mafia, without branching out into other bits of speculation. And I never said it HAD to be a Serial Killer. A Lyncher or Survivor would be perfectly fine.

No, I said three

scum

. That could be three mafia (and likely is), or it could be two mafia and a serial killer.

Your original post (and now this post supports that) look like you know there's three mafia, and are speculating about what else there might be.

Well I'm sorry for misinterpreting your post. And I pretty much know there are 3 mafia, because it's a 11 person game. Having a Serial Killer is like having an Independent Vigilante who has to eliminate everyone, not just the mafia. I also assume that because I don't want to have to worry about thinking we're safe to mislynch and then whoops, one extra mafia then I thought, we lose! I chose the logical maximum to account for that.

[gerryoat]

@Gren

I fos RhazhBash , hence the vote. I think you have had townie lines like i've explained. I don't see the rush in making reads when we aren't even 10 pages in yet. But, I'd be confident lynching RhazhBash the most right now

[VictorDeAngelo]

I kinda like Grendel trying to get "conflict" in the game, which in a sense is how you get reads more. So I do slightly tr that from him. But his actions and his words are a bit off right now. He says this game needs more conflict, but he already laid out a list of reads. Why does he keep saying this game needs more conflict when he already has a list of reads 3 pages in.

What do reads list have to do with conflict?

The page 3 stuff between Snake and Gamma is 100% fluff. I don't see how Victor can be scumreading snake for it either. Regardless I don't see it as alignment indicative.

Also a huge pet peeve of mine is when people waste too much time on setup spec. Setup spec won't win Town the game, so quit it and start posting some real content.

Grendel, this is what I was talking about. It's a strange way to distance, to be sure, but it kinda looks like distancing. And I do acknowledge that he mentioned me too, but that could have been an attack on me, or an attempt to group me in with Eager.

I actually read this as Rhazh defending snake from me.

I guess I am pessimistic about day one. Later days, when there's some decent info to work with, I consider far more useful.

It happens:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=60961

Yeek.Day one is something like 40 pages.

Yeah, well I've had longer day 1s. Personally I prefer more shorter/more direct day ones.

If we get a scumflip today that's great. But if we get a townflip, oh well. You can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs.

It's a bit unpleasant for the broken egg, though.

Yeah, I've never liked being lynched early either, but that's part the game and you get a cool dead chat where you can complain about the people who lynched while waiting for a new game.

Well in my last game with Grendel, it was the same for him. I don't think Grendel is scum this time, but I DEFINITELY think you are.

Believe it or not, this fits my Town meta too. Every game I've ever been Town in, I got lynched day one.

(This may be why I think so little of day one lynches).

So if we don't lynch you today, that means your scum right?

[Manuel87]

Do you like/dislike anything else in 102?

I generally dont like when ppl say "there are 1-2 scum in this group of people" when the group they are talking about is exactly 50% of the players (self not included)
Which in return means he also thinks there are 1-2 scum in the other group.

@RhazhBashu: would you mind answering my question in 92

[CCC]

Believe it or not, this fits my Town meta too. Every game I've ever been Town in, I got lynched day one.

(This may be why I think so little of day one lynches).

Say what now? You don't think much of Day 1 lynches? Well I do. You can't throw simply rule out the Day 1 lynch, that's crazy.

Day one

interactions

are important, because that sets the stage for scumhunting on later days. And I can see a good argument to

have

the day one lynch, just for the small chance of it actually hitting scum. I just think that is a

small

chance.

[CCC]

I think your post was worse because you ONLY stated that there was likely 3 mafia, without branching out into other bits of speculation. And I never said it HAD to be a Serial Killer. A Lyncher or Survivor would be perfectly fine.

No, I said three

scum

. That could be three mafia (and likely is), or it could be two mafia and a serial killer.

Your original post (and now this post supports that) look like you know there's three mafia, and are speculating about what else there might be.

Well I'm sorry for misinterpreting your post. And I pretty much know there are 3 mafia, because it's a 11 person game. Having a Serial Killer is like having an Independent Vigilante who has to eliminate everyone, not just the mafia. I also assume that because I don't want to have to worry about thinking we're safe to mislynch and then whoops, one extra mafia then I thought, we lose! I chose the logical maximum to account for that.

Others have suggested things like two teams of two mafia, or two mafia and a SK. You seem suspiciously certain of the three

mafia

, especially considering that you're a good deal less certain of the total number of scum over all factions.

[CCC]

What do reads list have to do with conflict?

Conflict causes people to talk and interact. From these interactions, reads can be formed, and refined.

Yeek.Day one is something like 40 pages.

Yeah, well I've had longer day 1s. Personally I prefer more shorter/more direct day ones.

Longer ones will give you more to work with, and give scum more chance of somehow slipping up...

It's a bit unpleasant for the broken egg, though.

Yeah, I've never liked being lynched early either, but that's part the game and you get a cool dead chat where you can complain about the people who lynched while waiting for a new game.

Yeah, it's part of the game. Personally, I'd rather like to explore one of the

other

parts of the game this time round.

Believe it or not, this fits my Town meta too. Every game I've ever been Town in, I got lynched day one.

(This may be why I think so little of day one lynches).

So if we don't lynch you today, that means your scum right?

You would certainly be able to make an excellent statistical argument to that effect.

[CCC]

Do you like/dislike anything else in 102?

I generally dont like when ppl say "there are 1-2 scum in this group of people" when the group they are talking about is exactly 50% of the players (self not included)
Which in return means he also thinks there are 1-2 scum in the other group.

@RhazhBashu: would you mind answering my question in 92

In this game, assuming the existence of three scum, the odds of a randomly selected group of five people (if a single known Town player is removed from consideration) containing zero scum is 16.807%. This is the same as the odds of the randomly selected group containing three scum.

Thus, the odds of five randomly selected players (after putting aside one known Town player) containing either exactly one or exactly two scum is 66.386%.

If there are two or four scum, these numbers change somewhat.

But Grendel didn't just say that in 102. He took his five players, and he

ranked us

in order of perceived scumminess. He didn't just say "one or two of these five people are scum". He said "of these five people, this is how scummy I think they are, and this is why."

[eagerSnake]

Just noticed you all get most of your posting done late night/early morning EST, when I'm not awake. I will post substance one I have the sufficient coffee in me.

[eagerSnake]

once I have sufficient* lol

[eagerSnake]

@Grendel let's play a game. I'll say someone's name

in italics.

in your next post you say what you think of that person and then say someone else's name. In my next post I'll say what I think of THAT person, and so on.

VictorDeAngelo

[The_Jester]

Can't you both just post readlists? It would create much less noise pollution.

I'm going on a V/LA until Monday.

[eagerSnake]

I really don't understand that bit about the random post holding up. Could you explain a little more, Eager?

If he says that it would probably hold up against any random post, then he is insinuating it probably holds up against his post, too.

If I have an ulterior motive I'm not going to admit to it. If I'm lazy I'm not going to admit that either.

Why not?

@Snakebuddy, Do you still think Gamma is town?

I think there are better lynches for today than Gamma, I still tr him more from earlier than others.

Can't you both just post readlists? It would create much less noise pollution.

Readlists are boring. We'll try not to be too noisy. We'll only do like 4-5 people.

[VictorDeAngelo]

If I have an ulterior motive I'm not going to admit to it. If I'm lazy I'm not going to admit that either.

Why not?

Do you really want me to explain it. Because if you do, it's probably going to sound quite patronising and not actually lead us anywhere towards catching scum.