New York 195: Adventure Mafia - Game over!

[TehBrawlGuy]

The whole statistics discussion is stupid and doesn't read natural. Feels like a poor attempt at distancing to me, as does Ircher's "go vote shotty". VOTE: Ircher

Copper case has no real merit imo. Copper had no reason to unvote/vote anyone else, but also no reason to actually believe Ircher was more likely to be scum than anyone else at the time.

[TehBrawlGuy]

If that happens, remember when I flip town that Shotty and Egg were the two huge activists for the lynch.

Feels like a poor attempt at distancing to me

[TehBrawlGuy]

that's fine. i'm fine with that.

1. the fact you keep bringing up how often you've been scum. its a complete fallacy
2. the "pick on ircher day" comment sounds veeeery close to what i've seen scum say before
3. this wagon is the best wagon, and i am a wagoner. love wagons. love em.
4. wagons are there for analysis. and reaction testing. and also lynching scum, but don't forget the other two
5. if you're not scum, that'll show itself before 7 more people vote you, so i'm fine w/this wagon
6. i like lists.




not buying titus' copper stuff btw



p-edit: LOL at killthestory

+1, I like this post.

[TehBrawlGuy]

The whole statistics discussion is stupid and doesn't read natural. Feels like a poor attempt at distancing to me, as does Ircher's "go vote shotty". VOTE: Ircher

Copper case has no real merit imo. Copper had no reason to unvote/vote anyone else, but also no reason to actually believe Ircher was more likely to be scum than anyone else at the time.

Primarily because in this post, he is setting himself up to vote for both Shotty/Ircher as opposed to taking one side. It looks like he's trying really hard to agree with both players at the same time.

Also, I want to see him under pressure.

I don't think setting myself up to be on both matters much when nobody's on Shotty. If I was setting myself up to vote Ircher/Copper, sure, but only one of the two is a viable wagon rn. Also, not sure how you see it as agreeing with both players when I call their entire discussion stupid.

Ircher vote over Shotty vote was because Ircherwagon was already in motion. After his recent posts, I'm more sure on him anyway. His tone and complaints about "pick on Ircher day" don't sit well with me, but my biggest thing is this:

Ok, all 6 of you who are voting me:

Make me a detailed case not only pointing out what is scummy but also explaining in detail why its scummy. What Egg has done is not by any means close to what I'm asking for.

Pedit: Except, general chit-chat and answering questions isnt scummy. Thats a fact.

Why the hell would any townie want to be bogged down with 6 cases to defend against, rather than scumhunting? The part about chit-chat and answering questions is also there to make cases on him weaker and easier to defeat. Chit-chat that seems forced or questions that have been answered poorly are fine signs of Scum. If you're actually Town, and thus can justify anything you've done with Town motivation, why does that need to be there?

[TehBrawlGuy]

If I am scum that would be a serious problem, accidentaly lynching your own teammates or the sk, effectively reducing the kills per night in a large game will lead to your demise

???

[TehBrawlGuy]

For real though, explain 174, because I actually can't parse that into anything I understand.

[TehBrawlGuy]

Tired, also a little tipsy. Will catch up in the morning, but posting now to tell you all I'm not dead.

[TehBrawlGuy]

+1, I like this post.

What specifically do you like about it?

VOTE: Brawl

All of it, actually. It read like a post I would have made.

I am just going to be on the biggest of TBG Copper and Shotty. I like all three wagons. Normally that doesn't happen.

I dislike this a lot. Reads as Scum who wants to avoid spearheading one particular lynch to me. The townie version of this post is like "I'll support XXX, YYY, and ZZZ wagons. I think YYY wagon is the best right now though".

[TehBrawlGuy]

Also, TehBrawlGuy, in regards to #171, your defense doesn't seem strong because it doesn't matter whether or not they were both viable wagons. My point was that they were both arguing, and you basically said "yeah, both of them seem pretty bad". It seemed like you didn't want to take a side so that you could potentially vote either one if either became viable.

I could've just said nothing and been able to jump on them if I wanted to. I did want to potentially vote either of them down the line. I thought it read like SvS. I still think it reads like SvS. No shit I'm going to want to vote people I think could be Scum.

[TehBrawlGuy]

Lol nice. xD

Lynch me if you want. I can be more use later. Right now I'll just be a potato and see how the votes go (This is my first macro game, after all)

do not like, trying far too hard to be casual townie and also gives an excuse for non-participation

[TehBrawlGuy]

Spoiler: NY 195 - D1 Copper ISO MAY 21

1. 29 - Willing to be lynched if I'm scum -

I think this is a somewhat risky statement to make. As either alignment, it strongly suggests both Copper & I are not both anti-town. I'm leaning town here though. -

+1 Point

2. 159 -

In the @Titus section: a) No, but I would change as soon as I got a scumread. Maybe unvote if the RVSed player is town imo. b) Ok. c) His anakysis was valid imo. I'd give him the benefit of the doubt. Overall, I get probably town reads from this post. It seems like a decent response to me. -

+2 Points

3. 169 - Votes Nos in 167 because of attacking me for statistics not town mindset -

I dunno.... I feel that of all the things Copper could have chosen, this just feels.... Well, this just feels nitpickey. Not sure if this is town or scum really...... -

0 Points

4. 179 -

When I look at the last few posts of Copper, I can't but help think that Copper is very skilled in rhetoric. He's like Cassius who turned the crowd against Brutus in the William Shakespearean play

The Tragedy of Julius Caesar

. I just cannot help thinking he's trying to manipulate people with his rhetorical skills. -

0 Points

5. 318 - Coming around on a scumread on me -

I fundamentally disagree with your approach here, and it really reads more as "I should change my read, so I can lynch him if necessary." Srry, but that's the motive I saw there. -

-2 Points

6.

It perplexes me as to why Copper decided to keep his vote on Nosferatu. Has Nos really struck your radar so much? If so, I think you need to expound on your earlier explanation for voting Nos. -

-1 Point

Total Score: 0 points
Average Score: 0 (0 / 6)
Final Score: -0.5 (In range of -6 to 6; includes bias score of -0.5)

I mean... what?

What's there not to get?

The

reasons

for the numbers.

Why

is the particular post positive or negative?

Why

is the particular post weighted at 1, or 2, or 3?

The numbers aren't that important for you guys as it will be for me later.

What will you get from them later? Also, how do you know that you'll get something from them later? I just checked a handful of your games and don't see you using this system. Can you point to a game where you've used it?

It looks like this is just a way of pretending to analyze without really doing so.

VOTE: Ircher

I agree with this a lot.

@Titus
So far, Ive liked your thought process plus Ive been lazy & not been doing isos.

I'm shutting up. You're standing on your own two feet.

You're shutting up because you want some other player not to copy you? What are you, FOUR?

This looks like an excuse to lurk tbh

also this

fully caught up now, reads list incoming

[TehBrawlGuy]

Spoiler: NY 195 - D1 Brawl ISO MAY 22

1. 171 -

I feel mixed here tbh. 1) I agree with Project's analysis. A wagon does not need to exist for one to set themselves up to switch. 2) What do you think my tone was at the time? 3) The quote's bolded, that argument is fair. 4) You really saw it as forced? And, how is answering questions poorly (cuz the only 1 I answered poorly I believe was the statistical one) alignment indicative? I guess that's an interpretation thing. The read seems decent & supported, so --

+3 Points

2. 509 - Comments on motive of Titus's I'll be on the biggest of XXX/YYY/ZZZ wagon -

This post looks pretty good to me. I definitely agree with the comment on Titus's motive. -

+3 Points

3. 516 -

I think Brawl is being honest and genuine here, yet at the same time, the AtE seems like an overreaction. -

+1 Point

Total Score: +7 points
Average Score: +2.33 (7 / 3)
Final Score: +2.33 (In range of -6 to 6; includes bias score of 0)

Looked better than I thought

2) At what time?
4) I don't recall you answering any questions poorly, personally, but you saying that "answering questions isnt scummy" is dumb. Of course one can give scummy answers to questions. And yes, I did and still do see the interactions between you/shotty as weird. I also see the shotty/titus and titus/you interactions as weird.

[TehBrawlGuy]

• drmyshottyizsik - scum. The fervor between him and titus reminds me very much of when I'm scum and want to hard distance a buddy on d1. He claims to have attacked copper, but he really never has, throwing a little bit at him in RVS and then listing him as a scum read. He talked about his incredible confidence in IrcherScum while his vote was on Titus, and he hasn't really done much other than spar with Titus and Ircher despite having 80+ posts.
  
  projectmatt - slight town. I like pretty much all of his points, and I think calling me out on what he did makes the most sense as Town; I don't see a scum motive for it.
  
  zakk - lean town. thought processes match my own and seem internally consistent
  
  Ircher - scum. Don't like his interactions with Shotty or Titus, don't like his 116, or his "remember when I flip town that Shotty and Egg were the two huge activists for the lynch." in 123 His ISO analysis is "trying to look Town by posting lots of things" imo.
  
  copper223
  Egg - town. lots of good insight, clear townie line of logic
  
  SethYazura - lean scum. awful content of nonsense poetry, doesn't really comment on anything important
  
  Killthestory slight town - gut read on tone
  
  cytheflyguy - Scum. I absolutely hate the initial votes on him. They're the most textbook easy unexplained votes I've seen in a while. I was thinking it was a Scum push on a soft target, but his recent posts are really bad for reasons previously stated, and now I'm thinking some of those initial votes were Scum overreactions to his bad entrance.
  
  Aneninen- lean town. thought processes match my own and seem internally consistent
  
  Titus - slight scum. I dislike his interactions with shotty/ircher as mentioned. Only a slight read, though, as his solo content is fine with the exception of 233
  
  EspeciallyTheLies - lean town. I don't recall what they are now, but he had some posts that I read town. I also read his tone town.

[TehBrawlGuy]

tl;dr happy with any of shotty/ircher/cy lynch, keeping my vote on ircher for now due to lack of content from cy

[TehBrawlGuy]

tbh i agree with all of egg's points

[TehBrawlGuy]

I could've just said nothing and been able to jump on them if I wanted to. I did want to potentially vote either of them down the line. I thought it read like SvS. I still think it reads like SvS. No shit I'm going to want to vote people I think could be Scum.

I've lost the thread. What felt like Scum-vs-Scum?

The initial stats discussion between Ircher and Shotty. It felt like artificial, forced conflict rather than genuine. Their interactions still feel off to me.

I am just going to be on the biggest of TBG Copper and Shotty. I like all three wagons. Normally that doesn't happen.

I dislike this a lot. Reads as Scum who wants to avoid spearheading one particular lynch to me. The townie version of this post is like "I'll support XXX, YYY, and ZZZ wagons. I think YYY wagon is the best right now though".

Are you hoping that a Titus-wagon will suddenly gain momentum?

Not particularly, no. I scumread him but he's not in my top 3, as you can see in the reads list I posted. Additionally, a lot of my read on him is relative to Ircher/Shotty. Scumflips from either of them would make me more sure on Titus, and less if they're Town. I'd rather see them die first - they're scummy on their own and help me read Titus.

I could've just said nothing and been able to jump on them if I wanted to. I did want to potentially vote either of them down the line. I thought it read like SvS. I still think it reads like SvS. No shit I'm going to want to vote people I think could be Scum.

Didn’t you just knock Titus in 516 as scummy for leaving her options open to jump to different lynches? Because I read this response as being exactly what you are damning Titus for.

Why do you think the early exchange is Scum versus scum? Please elaborate.

No, you misunderstand me. I don't think it's scummy to say "here are the three lynches I support". I think it's scummy to say "here are the three lynches I support, I'll be on whatever's biggest" rather than "here are the three lynches I support, and I currently prefer _____ Lynch". The former says to me that you don't have any actual scumreads, because if you did, one would naturally be the most appealing for some reason.

The whole "you're dead" thing and the stats discussion coming off each other are both pretty dumb, and the stats discussion comes from nowhere. It reads to me like they wanted to distance early D1, and after the daykill thing started to lose steam they had to come up with something else, and that spawned the stats argument. Go read the first 5 pages and tell me that Ircher/Shotty don't fit the description of two scum who decided on a hard distance gambit.

Also, I doubt scum-Ircher would go on with those hard-to read ISOs after the general dislike he got from almost everyone because of them.

What do you all think of this?

I disagree. I think if he had stopped after we said it wasn't going to give him townpoints, it would have been a clear indication he was only doing it for townpoints.

[TehBrawlGuy]

[quote="In [url=http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 0#p7940280]

2. Your serious contention is that scum-partners in a Large game decided that the best course of action Day 1 is to immediately come into the thread and hard distance with frankly stupid content (fake daykill and stats argument are both dumb). With the end effect being at least 1 (and maybe more) players thought it was obvious distancing?

I have personally done that, and on more than one occasion. It looks a lot like this.

Besides, even if you disregard their interactions with each other, I think they're both individually scummy.

[TehBrawlGuy]

I have personally done that, and on more than one occasion. It looks a lot like this.

Links please.

I'm not going to go back through 4 years of games on my homesite to link you.

[TehBrawlGuy]

I have read nothing and everything at the same time. Ircher seems most scum atm so I'll go with him for now

VOTE: Ircher

Your laziness has earned you scum points according to my scum points book

Read his two posts.

how is cy the top wagon with only 2 posts?

have you read the posts?

Both Titus and Zakk replied the same thing. I know this should be a null read, but I'm gut reading both Titus and Zakk as town for the moment.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: cytheflyguy

and VOTE: cytheflyguy

1. you have your own reasons for voting him, but you try to make it funny too
2. you base your actual vote on the fact that titus and i agree about him
3. you forget you voted him, and vote him again? apparently you didn't really believe in your vote when you did it.

bonus: you made some comment to me about that you like being hard to read, which seemed jokey-scummy in sort of a "ha ha let's laugh at this together even though i'm giving the obvious scum answer ha ha ha look how funny everyone"

vote: heuristically_alone

the cy wagon has gotten stale of late, it's a bunch of me-toos, and a cy flip will tell us too little

the ircher wagon is the definition of a lazy wagon on probtown, buuuut it will tell us a lot based on flip, so i will abide it, HOWEVER

hey other people:

come join me on heur, we have cookies. this is the real juiciness of the day right hurr

Agree with this post/10.
Look at heur iso.

It's the goddamn definition of coasting. Most of his posts are one liners, and his only stated reads are on me (circa forever ago) and Cy, the easiest wagon in the game. It's a Large, and he has one current read, but he's here enough to answer a question directed at cy in 776 for some reason?

vote heur

[TehBrawlGuy]

whoops bbcode

VOTE: huer

[TehBrawlGuy]

TBH tries to misdirect and change the wagon to heuristically_alone just right after Titus said we should gang him up.
Say no more Titus, VOTE: TehBrawlGuy.

@Seth – are you an Alt? Your statements about “new players” when your join date is this month strike me as not new-player based.

Had games of real life party mafia and 200+ games on sc2mafia before I decided to try out forum mafia.

Because voting on the only wagon competing with yours when you've never expressed any suspicion of me is suuuuper townie, right? Please tell me someone else sees this is shit.

[TehBrawlGuy]

Ircher, what are your thoughts on his 811?

[TehBrawlGuy]

TBG is trying to look for scum bussing each other for some weird yet town reason.

Personal bias. It's one of my favorite tactics as Scum, and in Larges there are usually a lot of mafia interactions by necessity, so I think it's usually pretty effective.

Reads updates:
Nahdia's first posts were really good, but the whole trying to be cute and lack of any explanation on the switch to copper has me confused - lean town
The points made against KTS are valid and I don't read his tone the same as I used to. He reads to me as intentionally obstinate as a meta-gambit which is inherently null. (also AntiTown, but null)
Expedience moved to solid town. I like his posts on KTS/Shotty/Seth.
Seth moved to solid scum. Still not a lot of real content, but a lot of null posts that point out things that are NAI. See: 975 1000. Since his very lazy vote on me in 811, he hasn't produced anything that indicates a read on anyone.
No update on Heur. His posts since my vote don't have anything substantial in them to sway me one way or the other.

[TehBrawlGuy]

ok so I left my computer in my office today so I'm stuck on a phone but here ir goes

MoI - I don't think it is over simplifying the game. I think it is a good starting point. There are other reasons I am scum reading Ircher, that it just something that supports my idea of what is going on here. Also look at the way ircher deffends zakk over the last few pages. He seems almost scared that I said zakk was scum. This coupled with the early distancing Zakk did to ircher by sheeping me and how when I said I killed him how quickly he wanted to call ircher scum. Also look at how Ircher keeps saying to look past that. My new theory is 2 scum teams. Copper and Titus/Ircher and Zakk.
VOTE: ircher these last 4 pages were awful.

Isn't multiball inherently non-normal?

Also, you haven't posted reads on Seth or Heur ever. Why are you okay with having no stated read on two of the leading lynches?

[TehBrawlGuy]

ok so I left my computer in my office today so I'm stuck on a phone but here ir goes

MoI - I don't think it is over simplifying the game. I think it is a good starting point. There are other reasons I am scum reading Ircher, that it just something that supports my idea of what is going on here. Also look at the way ircher deffends zakk over the last few pages. He seems almost scared that I said zakk was scum. This coupled with the early distancing Zakk did to ircher by sheeping me and how when I said I killed him how quickly he wanted to call ircher scum. Also look at how Ircher keeps saying to look past that. My new theory is 2 scum teams. Copper and Titus/Ircher and Zakk.
VOTE: ircher these last 4 pages were awful.

Isn't multiball inherently non-normal?

Also, you haven't posted reads on Seth or Heur ever. Why are you okay with having no stated read on two of the leading lynches?

Why are you OK with Persivul not caring what you flip? Why didn't you comment on that?

I just checked his ISO and at no point did he ever say that. Quote where you think he did.

[TehBrawlGuy]

oh yeah and I checked, multiball can be normal

that's an awful rule but there it is

[TehBrawlGuy]

First off, "not caring what I (TBG) flip" and "not caring about (TBG) right now" are two entirely different things. It's pretty misreppy/strechy to say that he said one when he said the other.

Secondly, because there's no reason to care. If you're asking why I gave Pers a pass and not Shotty, it's because there's a very large difference between explicitly stating you don't care about one of the leading wagons (what Pers did) and avoiding mentioning two of the leading wagons at all (what Shotty did). The former reads as genuine intent to pursue other targets, the latter reads as attempting to coast while voting Ircher's wagon that's pretty clearly lost steam and not going anywhere.

Why is it that you, of all people, don't seem to mind Shotty coming in and doing what he did? You went after me quite hard for "leaving my options open" by saying I thought an argument was SvS, but you don't mind Shotty not even stating reads on two leading wagons, then when forced to, coming out with double null? That's the definition of leaving your options open. He can sit on Ircher forever, and if he wants to hop later, all he has to do is quote a post from Seth/Huer and claim that it brought him from null.

This kind of nonsense is why I lean scum on both of you.

[TehBrawlGuy]

First off, "not caring what I (TBG) flip" and "not caring about (TBG) right now" are two entirely different things. It's pretty misreppy/strechy to say that he said one when he said the other.

Secondly, because there's no reason to care. If you're asking why I gave Pers a pass and not Shotty, it's because there's a very large difference between explicitly stating you don't care about one of the leading wagons (what Pers did) and avoiding mentioning two of the leading wagons at all (what Shotty did). The former reads as genuine intent to pursue other targets, the latter reads as attempting to coast while voting Ircher's wagon that's pretty clearly lost steam and not going anywhere.

Why is it that you, of all people, don't seem to mind Shotty coming in and doing what he did? You went after me quite hard for "leaving my options open" by saying I thought an argument was SvS, but you don't mind Shotty not even stating reads on two leading wagons, then when forced to, coming out with double null? That's the definition of leaving your options open. He can sit on Ircher forever, and if he wants to hop later, all he has to do is quote a post from Seth/Huer and claim that it brought him from null.

This kind of nonsense is why I lean scum on both of you.

Shotty is a scumread and bussing. I'm not going to interrupt that to pointlessly say they're both scum again. Shotty voting Zakk helps town's wincon

. I cannot highlight every single scummy thing y'all do.

It would drown the fuck out of town. I've made that mistake before. My job now is to coordinate the rest of the town to get you people lynched.

Shotty's voting you, not Zakk. Regardless of the fact that the bold is iffy logic, not highlighting a major scummy thing that one of your supposed scumreads is not Town behavior at all. This whole post reeks of an excuse for getting called out on inconsistently applied logic.

[TehBrawlGuy]

@Egg, Given how I feel about Zakk, I have little desire to lynch ETL either.

As for TBG, his posts are all hollow and ignore things he should be thinking about. ETL was right. His start was all gut. He technically starts to provide reasons later but they aren't fleshed out or followed up on. His reads make zero sense whatsoever in his readwall. He was vote parked on Ircher for quite awhile. He moved to HA at the same time as the pressure and doesn't discuss his own wagon.

Right now, I want a scum lynch but I feel mostly only scum are posting.

I moved to HA with the pressure because there was a good case on him posted, which prompted me to ISO him and see that his ISO was shit. I don't go around randomly ISOing low-content players usually. Voting someone because a case was posted on them is pretty standard.

Why the hell would I comment on my own wagon? FMPoV, it's a wagon on town. I'd rather discuss wagons on potential Scum. If I get you off of me, but you just ML someone else, I don't gain anything.

Reads updates:
Nahdia's first posts were really good, but the whole trying to be cute and lack of any explanation on the switch to copper has me confused - lean town
The points made against KTS are valid and I don't read his tone the same as I used to. He reads to me as intentionally obstinate as a meta-gambit which is inherently null. (also AntiTown, but null)
No update on Heur. His posts since my vote don't have anything substantial in them to sway me one way or the other.

These look fabricated as hell –

No reason to say Nahdia’s posts were really good. Sorry, there isn’t. They are at best contentless lists with no way to discern the whys and wherefores of the read. There hasn’t been a bit of explanation in any of her posts so why only the move to Copper confused him puzzles the heck out of me.

The Kill read his is a complete no-read. He acknowledges that the thinks points made against kill are valid (and solidifies his Town read on Expedience for pushing Kill) but says that kill’s playstyle is aggressively null. If the points that kill as scum are good why is he landing on null for the Kill read. Or more precisely – why voice it at all when it is just a no-conclusion?

He’s voting Heur so how are Heur’s posts not “swaying him”? He’s already gotten a scum read as evidenced by his vote. If Heurs’ posts were not Town convincing he logically should have said something like “Heur continues to post nothing Town oriented at all so my scum read is well placed”. But instead he posts this which reads as “I’m not updating my read so I am waiting to be swayed by Heur to either Town or Scum”

I voiced my read on Kill because I had a prior Town read on him based on tone. Going from Town to Null is an important shift. The points were enough to shift me from a town read to a null read. Kill is intentionally playing hard to read, which is shitty, but as long as he's doing that I'll probably have him at solid null.

Huer's recent posts were all null. Hence, nothing in them swayed me from liking my huer vote. It is a no update in my read. I don't know why you seem to think I'm waiting to be swayed to town or scum on him - I'm pretty clearly reading him scum. I was waiting to be swayed from "likely scum" to "def scum" or "null". He's got jack all for content, so as much as I think what he has is shit and pretty scummy, my read on him is still very malleable due to the amount of content it's based on.

[TehBrawlGuy]

@Ircher - Let's walk this through Ircher. That post is scum posting. Scum love to hedge and hawww. Second, everyone is biased. We all have cognitive biases. The key to scumhunting from my point of view is finding out if these biases make sense and tracking a train of thought because I don't do as well with emotionally reading players.

Paragraph 1 - "Ircher or Shotty is scum. There's something "weird" between them." He's doubtcasting your slot here while leaving open a bus on Shotty. That's why these dual reads "there's something off here" without doing anything to resolve them are 100% pro scum.
Paragraph 2 - "I don't want to push Titus, but I'd gladly jump on her if she gained momentum." It's consistent. He's practically yelling at us that he'll never make a decision or push anything. He'll just have his "gut" reads and do nothing considering gut can't really be proven false unless just ridiculous to have pairings together.
Paragraph 3 - He's playing semantics here at best, but he's painting attempts at town cohesion scummy but lurking as a protown manuever.
Paragraph 4 - More doubtcasting Ircher and dismissing common sense townpoints as wifom.

No shit I'm going to "doubtcast" my goddamn scumread. And no, Ircher's votewalls being not-town is not "common sense townpoints" - a lot of people don't like them.
I very explicitly stated that I was

not

looking for Tituswagon to gain momentum. You're putting the exact opposite words of what I said into my mouth.

The logic stretches and confbias here are unreal.


also, lol @ the ircher flip after he said I was town. i dont even have words for that

[TehBrawlGuy]

Definitely not a fan of Titus's deadline fearmongering to try and strongarm my wagon. We have over half a week left (4 days + some hours), there's no need to rush to wagon anybody.

[TehBrawlGuy]

Egg, brawl, ircher, me, and Persivul should all vote together in a block. Expedience and projectmatt are also invited.

Thoughts?

I like this whole block except for Ircher. If we can agree on a good target (i.e. Heur/seth) it seems sensible.

[TehBrawlGuy]

Brawl, which of Nahdia's posts did you think were "really good"? I agree with the rest of the reads you posted here, but I don't understand this one.

Off the top of my head, the read walls as she was catching up. I don't really see a scum motive for that, when she's very clearly not playing for townpoints in every other post. The fact that they hardly changed is indicative of a real reads list to me, as I think she if she were faking it, she would have been more apt to change her "reads" more.

nothing wrong with ircher being in the block as long as he votes who we vote.
doesn't matter who's in the block as long as they vote how they're told.

this isn't a town block. it's a vote block guided by popular demand.

and we don't let anyone get away with coasting due to being part of the block. this doesn't give anyone an excuse for anything. if other people want to vote with us great. if not, fine by us. but i think we can probably all agree on decent lynches.

personally i would think you and ircher would be inclined to be up for this type of thing, seeing as you guys have wagons on you already, and i'm assuming this vote block would be targeting outside itself.

and if we think someone is town, and they're down, we can add them.

yea?

I'm down with it as long as we kick out/lynch anyone coasting because lolblock.

[TehBrawlGuy]

Why the hell would I comment on my own wagon? FMPoV, it's a wagon on town. I'd rather discuss wagons on potential Scum. If I get you off of me, but you just ML someone else, I don't gain anything.

This is posted from the perspective of someone who doesn’t think scum could be voting him. Because a significant wagon on Town just might be a solid place to look for scum. Yet he dismisses that right out of hand.

Still happy with my vote.

I think two of the people on my wagon (Seth/Titus) are Scum. I'm not pushing them for being on my wagon, because the scummy things they've done are entirely separate, and I can make far more objective points about things other than my own wagon. It's hard to have the perspective to see who's on your own wagon because of shitty confbias, and who's on it because they're scum intentionally trying to misrep you.

On that note, VOTE: Seth. Huerwagon has not gone, which makes me sad. I still think he's the better target, but my vote's doing jack on him, so may as well.

As per usual, I agree entirely with Zakk. Even excluding him being on my rear all day, which is obviously wrong FMPoV, I remember disagreeing with a lot of what he's said. I can absolutely buy that all the shitty reads/pushes are the result of him being Scum and having to fake them all.

[TehBrawlGuy]

*I agree entirely with Zakk on Titus

[TehBrawlGuy]

>pushed him over the edge
>has literally never indicated suspicion of me

a+ job on the lazy scumwagon

[TehBrawlGuy]

oh

it didn't come up in my iso search because he fucked up my name

mb then

[TehBrawlGuy]

Because that's not my name? I didn't remember if he'd said anything about me, iso'd, ctrl-f'd Brawl and TBG and found nothing of note.

[TehBrawlGuy]

It's a large, I paid about 0 attention during the weekend, and that was 4 days ago.

1191 doesn't imply I'm scum either. It implies that

if

I'm scum [a bunch of stuff].

[TehBrawlGuy]

Current thoughts:
The idea that the neighborhood is 1 scum is terrible imo. You're absolutely outguessing the mod on this, and it reads like a very easy way to set up chain-mislynches. I read the whole neighborhood as Town, tbh.

Titus's math on the neighborhood raises several red flags. From the PoV of a non-neighbor Town, assuming 5 total scum, and 1 in the neighborhood, the odds of hitting neighborhood scum are 1/4, and outside of that, it's 4/16, the same odds. If you're Town, you should automatically exclude yourself from being scum, obviously. Titus isn't doing that math from the PoV of TownTitus, because she can't, so instead she's doing it from a fully neutral view. Secondly, again assuming 5 total scum, 1 neighbor-scum, from a neutral PoV, the odds are 25% and 23.5%. Why the fuck would you ever pick which pile to lynch from for a

less than 2% increase

in odds? Shouldn't any reasonable Town player be far more confident in their reads than a >2% boost, which is only true if the set-up speculation is true, which is already a stretch?

Pers's ISO has me going both ways a little bit, but I settled on a town lean. I feel for him when he said "lynch me". I feel pretty damn similar. This game has been misrepping and confbias out the ass, while you're letting low-content/scummy content players like Seth and Heur off for free, while they get a front seat to watch the thread just devolve into crap.


Fuck set-up speculation, fuck lynching on math instead of reads. One of Seth/Heur needs to die. The bigger wagon right now is Seth, so join me on it.

[TehBrawlGuy]

I'm with ETL on this. It's not like we need a full list on 20 people, but knowing where you stand wrt leading wagons is a big deal.

[TehBrawlGuy]

@Titus
He went back and checked your probabilities, now maybe he is scum looking to grasp at straws before falling off the cliff, but at least he found something he could try to hang on to.

Do you have examples in other games of doing probabilities without factoring in information only you were aware of?

Any other game where I do probabilities. The one that just ended by Varsoon is a good one. Space Dandy 2.

Uh, no?

So we get the pools of

There is one scum in Sensei/Nahdia/KC/Alch. (I'm removing myself because this whole analysis depends on me being town).

There is one scum in RR/DBR/Elbrin/Random.

[TehBrawlGuy]

Current thoughts:
The idea that the neighborhood is 1 scum is terrible imo. You're absolutely outguessing the mod on this, and it reads like a very easy way to set up chain-mislynches. I read the whole neighborhood as Town, tbh.

Titus's math on the neighborhood raises several red flags. From the PoV of a non-neighbor Town, assuming 5 total scum, and 1 in the neighborhood, the odds of hitting neighborhood scum are 1/4, and outside of that, it's 4/16, the same odds. If you're Town, you should automatically exclude yourself from being scum, obviously. Titus isn't doing that math from the PoV of TownTitus, because she can't, so instead she's doing it from a fully neutral view. Secondly, again assuming 5 total scum, 1 neighbor-scum, from a neutral PoV, the odds are 25% and 23.5%. Why the fuck would you ever pick which pile to lynch from for a

less than 2% increase

in odds? Shouldn't any reasonable Town player be far more confident in their reads than a >2% boost, which is only true if the set-up speculation is true, which is already a stretch?

Pers's ISO has me going both ways a little bit, but I settled on a town lean. I feel for him when he said "lynch me". I feel pretty damn similar. This game has been misrepping and confbias out the ass, while you're letting low-content/scummy content players like Seth and Heur off for free, while they get a front seat to watch the thread just devolve into crap.


Fuck set-up speculation, fuck lynching on math instead of reads. One of Seth/Heur needs to die. The bigger wagon right now is Seth, so join me on it.

That's wrong. It's 4/17. I know I'm town. That doesn't mean everyone else knows that. You don't put in hidden information when counting probabilities. That's not how things work. Second, even if that was true, that would make the odds smack damn even. Then, if we actually hit right in the neighborhood, many people would be highly suggested to be clear.

Second, this implies that I'm not at all confident in my reads because I'm not doing what he wants. That reading is inconsistent with the thread. I've been saying zakk, TBG, Persivul, Shotty for AGES now.

Third, this is a pity me shitstorm at the end. Ooh there's mislynch bait that town isn't going after a policy lynch, the thread is crap woah is me. It's nonsense.

Who are you trying to persuade to vote? Town, or Scum? You're not going to convince Scum to vote. If you're trying to persuade Town to vote, then they're all ConfTown to themselves. From the perspective of

any town player outside the hood

, assuming your distribution is correct, it's 1/4 and 4/16. This is not difficult.

And I've been saying that it bothers me that you have the same level of confidence in 4 seperate people at the same time. Faked scumreads have no nuance to them, because they're made up and you already know alignments. Real scumreads come in varying levels of certainty. The fact that you think me, zakk, pers, and shotty have the same chance of being Scum comes from a Scum perspective. A Town player is making their best guesses, and is naturally more or less sure on slots as they do scummy/townie things. I have never, ever met a Town player who had the same level of confidence in 4 different lynches.

I don't want your damn pity. I want you to not mislynch Persivul. I saw him take heat for a statement that I feel is legitimate and I wanted to back him up on it. Seth and Heur are by no means policy lynches. They both have scummy content, and both are taking advantage of Town being a shitstorm to just lay low and let their wagons die.

[TehBrawlGuy]

Yes. I made the acknowledgment in that post because A) I was conftown and B) It was atypical to exclude the post.

When I actually did analysis, you'll see that I used actual numbers, it was 1/X.

You can cherry pick anything when you try to divorce it from the context.

Go pull up posts where you didn't do that shit then. You told me to go look at the game, I pulled the very first quote I saw.

[TehBrawlGuy]

Yes. I made the acknowledgment in that post because A) I was conftown and B) It was atypical to exclude the post.

When I actually did analysis, you'll see that I used actual numbers, it was 1/X.

You can cherry pick anything when you try to divorce it from the context.

Go pull up posts where you didn't do that shit then. You told me to go look at the game, I pulled the very first quote I saw.

Actually, wait, I think this is a straight lie. You got lynched in that game.

Titus was lynched on Day 6. She was Smart Dandy, aligned with The Space Protagonists.

Who the fuck lynches conftown?

[TehBrawlGuy]

It's bothering you that you're caught. You haven't actually done anything to sort people and now you're trying to pick a fight with me to show how brave and macho you are. You're trying to paint me as someone who doesn't reasses. Do something that's actually worth reassessing on your slot. Stop pretending like you're not hard defending your buddies would be a start. Yet, that's what you're doing and what they are doing to do. You've also never dealt with me. See Klingoncelt getting flipped in YBCA IV. Town recognized each other and stuck Klingoncelt to the wall.
.

No, it's bothering me that you're a textbook smug, power hungry Scum and you're getting away with it. I don't want you to reassess my slot to town. I find it incredibly odd that you are on Pers and not me right now. From TownTitus's perspective, you've marked all my posts as scummy for one reason or another, I am "Playing semantics, misrepping, lurking, and easy pushes.", ObvScum, AND the leading wagon. So why in the fuck would you swap to Pers?

TownTitus doesn't do that. TownTitus is dead sure I'm scum, notes Pers as the likely Scum in the neighborhood, but keeps her vote on me because from her PoV I'm scummyscumscum. You swapped to Pers because all the lynches in your scumpool are the same to you, and they're all the same to you because you know they're all town. Hell, Pers might even be better because it sets you up for chain MLs on the hood.

You're not even consistent with your own logic in this game.

Defending yourself is stupid. It's something I found out a long time ago. Find the

actual scum

focus the fuck on them.

TehBrawlGuy - Scum.TBG did nothing but pick favorites until his readwall. He vote parked Ircher since RVS. Only getting off onto a townie imo. He also says he likes thought pattern and tone but never really says why. The things he does explain why on are largely semantic. Not addressing the pressure on him or pushing his reads is just bad.

TownTitus doesn't do this. TownTitus maybe gets on me for not pushing Seth/Heur harder, (but honestly, what the fuck am I going to do when they're lurking?) but you 180 your thoughts on defending oneself when it's convenient to pushing me, because you don't care what logic you lynch on.

TownTitus doesn't exist. VOTE: Titus.

[TehBrawlGuy]

Yes. I made the acknowledgment in that post because A) I was conftown and B) It was atypical to exclude the post.

When I actually did analysis, you'll see that I used actual numbers, it was 1/X.

You can cherry pick anything when you try to divorce it from the context.

Go pull up posts where you didn't do that shit then. You told me to go look at the game, I pulled the very first quote I saw.

Actually, wait, I think this is a straight lie. You got lynched in that game.

Titus was lynched on Day 6. She was Smart Dandy, aligned with The Space Protagonists.

Who the fuck lynches conftown?

I was lynched due to misleading mod statements. You should check the fuck out after I got lynched. No one suspected me and I was confirmed town. That happens very rarely. It was a very angry post game.

You seem

very

familiar with that game for having known about it for all of five seconds.

It's

incredibly

deceptive to say that you were "conftown" in a game that you got lynched in, regardless of reason.
It's also

incredibly

deceptive to link a game as evidence of your behavior, get called out on it being bullshit, and then attempt to call me out for not being familiar with it, while refusing to find any posts that substantiate what you said.

[TehBrawlGuy]

And you seem to think I'm focused on defending myself. I'm not justifying myself to you. There's a difference between correcting blatant misrepresentations and proving your scumread as scum and defending yourself. You're not my audience for what I'm saying, the town is.

It's not deceptive to claim that I was conftown lynched due to mod misleading statements. It's the truth. It's not the least bit deceptive. To say something deceptive, the statement I would first have to say is untrue.
Again, it's not deceptive to highlight my post is actually consistent with my own thinking. You're going to portray it as a fiction.

You and Pers have attempted to do a rhetorical damned if you do damned if you don't. If I am voting you, your buddy argues that I'm not pushing him. I vote him, you argue that my belief it's genuine. I already highlighted that before. I can be equally confident in two scumreads and only have one vote.

Also, you never did justify why you wanted Seth/Heur. That's a classic diversionary tactic.

Select only the parts of the post you want to respond to and ignore the rest. Everyone knows that Seth would be policy lynched for being a dick and to save the mods the hassle of replacing the slot. HA again, policy lynch. Yet, you can't defend against that, so your response is to throw more misreps.

You know what's REALLY pissing me off. Every single time a decent case gets posted on one of the scum team, another scumteam member spams the fuck out of the god damn thread. I posted a case that got traction on you TBG. Shotty then starts spamming the fuck out of the thread with irrelevant bullshit. Persivul gets wagoned with all obvious town on it. You start picking a fight based on lies and misrepresentations with me and don't even pretend that's not what you're doing.

You know what's a classic diversionary tactic? Posting an entire wall of things to muck up the discussion, a.k.a the Gish Gallop. Relevant excerpt:

The Gish Gallop is the fallacious debating tactic of drowning an opponent in such a torrent of small arguments that the opponent cannot possibly rebut each one in real time.
...if even one argument in the Gish Gallop is untouched or insufficiently rebutted, the Galloper will claim victory -- an abuse of the one single proof fallacy.

I justified my reads on Seth and Heur ages ago. Why the fuck would I attempt to justify them (again) while pushing you? That would only take away from my point.

Your allegation is that three members of the scumteam decided to all hard defend each other on D1? In what world has anyone seen this happen? You're just content to throw shade at any of your major detractors in an attempt to strongarm the Town.

[TehBrawlGuy]

Hey brawl vote Persivul with me and Titus instead

I think Titus is town based on pov stuff which I know she could fake but also the wagon on Persivul is good and he's scummy

Everything makes more sense when you assume Titus is town and notice pers is scum. You're being conf biasy on Titus like I was for a bit. Read my recent posts.

Also. Titus. you can't push both the brawl and pers wagons. I choose to trust you right now and I have good reason to mistrust Persivul and I also think TBG is town so let's all coagulate on a Persivul lynch yea?

Stop antagonizing TBG pls

Drink the koolaid ... I will lead us to victoryyy

I don't like Pers lynch. I said that.

I read your recent posts. You 180'd Titus because of "implied daytalk", which is straight up fallacious when we have no idea if the mafia have an encryptor.

[TehBrawlGuy]

VOTE: kts

#betterthanperswagon

Kill's null but I dont want him in lylo and Pers is town.

[TehBrawlGuy]

I agree with you, ETL. Join us on KTS to help give it speed so that it's a credible counter-wagon? I will lynch Persivul over NL but I want to give KTSWagon a real shot.

pedit: Ircher, I don't want to drag it out. I want to change lynch targets.

[TehBrawlGuy]

Nonsense. A KTS wagon has a lot to analyze. If he flips scum we can look at who was reticent to join, and if he's town we can take a look at who pushed it.

[TehBrawlGuy]

Obviously I know I'm not, but yeah, from a neutral perspective, if KTS is Town that doesn't reflect well on egg/kop/me, especially if Pers is Scum. I don't think my reads are that far off though.

[TehBrawlGuy]

Nonsense. A KTS wagon has a lot to analyze. If he flips scum we can look at who was reticent to join, and if he's town we can take a look at who pushed it.

But, the same can be said for just about any wagon. Content-wise, KTS has done nothing. I'd support a PL except I'd think it be a waste right now.

He's been active, so damn near everyone's taken a stance on him at some point. That can't be said for "just about any wagon", even if his content is garbage.

[TehBrawlGuy]

It is strange to me that Pers's wagon took off like a rocket over mine, and he has been at L-1 or L-2 so much, while KTS wagon has all the makings of a solid flashwagon but won't go. If we think KTS should die by vig anyway, we gain a lot more info by moving wagons and then having Pers die in the night instead.

pedit: I don't think we gain any associatives from KTS-->People, but I do think we gain them from People-->KTS. His spammy bullshit was just that, but by being in the thread frequently,

other players

had to comment on him.

[TehBrawlGuy]

if we're establishing that KTS needs to die by the end of the game we should do it sooner rather than later. If he's BP, or our vig dies, or there is no vig, or whatever, I don't want to have to burn D3's or D4's, etc lynch on him. If you have to PL you do it D1. He's a little bit better than a PL and Persivul lynch is awful.

Worse comes to worse and we're right before deadline I'll vote Pers so we don't NL and I suspect others will too, but ffs we should at least try to make a good lynch