Mini 490: Speed Mafia - GAME OVER.

[ChronX]

I suppose I don't count if I have an objection?

Distad, your logic is stupid. Blame BM for who he wasted his

alleged

protection on, not me. I urged the CORRECT play with regard to handling the masons. Also, everyone seems to have completely/conveniently forgotten that CKD was giving off more scum vibes than Roach (we've all been in games with Roach, right?).

The reluctantly OK, we'll go for the mason bandwagon crowd is MUCH more suspicious than me; I was pushing for a claimed-mason lynch all along. Why would I do that as scum? Try to answer without resorting to an acronym crutch, you are already abusing LAL.

[Battle Mage]

woah, hold the phones people. I have confirmation that Speed Games do not have to be mini themes. As such, there must be something else about this game which makes it a theme game. Either it is the JoAT, which means that this evidence is null and void, or it could be a Mafia RoleBlocker, which means that Gorgon is scum.
Please hold voting for a couple hours to see if i get a response.

BM

[Hang 'em High]

Damn! I just realized this can't be true:

=Confused= (Doctor)
d3sisted I (Vanilla)
Raffles (Vanilla)
Curiouskarmadog (Mason)
d3sisted II (Mason)
Hang ‘em High (Cop)
Gorgon (Roleblocker)
distad (Vanilla)
One of Atticus, Sonicpulsar or ChronX (Vanilla)

Scum:
Battle Mage (Godfather)
Two of Atticus, Sonicpulsar or ChronX (Goon)

because....

Ugh, sorry BM. I recalled incorrectly. You

did

say you were roleblocked before I said I was a roleblocker. It was only HeH who said he was roleblocked after I said I blocked him. This means that either you're some sort of protown scum role, or your claim is correct. Otherwise there is no way you could have known I blocked you that night, unless you were just guessing wildly, which is an unfair assumption.

If Gorgon is town then BM almost has to be town as well. The only way BM could have known he was RBed was if he was a power role or he and Gorgon were scum together running a gambit. Since in this scenario Gorgon is town, it means BM has to have a power role with a night action. The only night action the GF would have is killing, and since a kill happened it seems logical that if Gorgon is town then BM is a protown power role. This means the scenario above is not likely, which means I'm back to thinking Gorgon has to be scum -- I just don't see any scenario where he could be otherwise. My most likely scum trio is ChronX (Godfather), Gorgon (Roleblocker) and either Atticus or Sonicpulsar (Goon). This game is going to make my head explode. For now:

Unvote: ChronX

HoS: Gorgon

Am I missing something with this analysis?

[Battle Mage]

I suppose I don't count if I have an objection?

Distad, your logic is stupid. Blame BM for who he wasted his

alleged

protection on, not me. I urged the CORRECT play with regard to handling the masons. Also, everyone seems to have completely/conveniently forgotten that CKD was giving off more scum vibes than Roach (we've all been in games with Roach, right?).

The reluctantly OK, we'll go for the mason bandwagon crowd is MUCH more suspicious than me; I was pushing for a claimed-mason lynch all along. Why would I do that as scum? Try to answer without resorting to an acronym crutch, you are already abusing LAL.

Chronx-do me a favour. Don't blame the rest of us for your mistake. And no, i dont even mean the false claim itself. I mean the fact that you confessed at such a ridiculously inopportune time.
If you're town, there will be discussion on this at the end.

[Hang 'em High]

I realize I need to clarify my last post a little. In one post I come up with this -- the key part is underlined:

If Battle Mage is innocent it means SP and Atticus are Goons and either distad or ChronX is the GF. I don't buy this since it would give the town 6 power roles versus a GF and 2 Goons. Too unbalanced in favor of the town.

Conclusion: If Gorgon is town then BM isn't innocent and must be the GF

.

In a later post I realize this (key part again underlined):

If Gorgon is town then BM almost has to be town as well

. The only way BM could have known he was RBed was if he was a power role or he and Gorgon were scum together running a gambit. Since in this scenario Gorgon is town, it means BM has to have a power role with a night action. The only night action the GF would have is killing, and since a kill happened it seems logical that if Gorgon is town then BM is a protown power role.

Since this is obviously a contradiction I can only conclude my logic is faulty (I don't think so, but correct me if I'm wrong) or my premise in incorrect. My premise was: "If Gorgon is town". I think that's wrong -- there is no way Gorgon is town. My vote is going there unless somebody can point out a flaw in my logic.

[distad]

I'm trying to see your argument, HeH, so bear with me, please.

Why do SP and Atticus have to be goons in your first post? (or direct me to that original post so that you don't have to type it all out again)

[ChronX]

BM, could the theme be 2 Mafia, alternating NKs?

[Gorgon]

Well, my 2 cents ...

Roleblocker is a very common role, whether it's town or scum. Also, why is a scum roleblocker more 'themey' than a town roleblocker?

I think a Jack-of-All trades is much more 'themey', so I think either this or the speed element are the likely reasons why this is a Theme game.

[Hang 'em High]

Since I've been thinking out loud a lot and posting way too much stuff -- I'm going to try and summarize my beliefs and save everybody the trouble of trying to decipher my many posts. Here is an overview of my current thoughts.

I'm pretty sure there is a Godfather. Here is my argument:

I've been assuming there is a Godfather in the game. If there is not, then this is easy. We've got 5 dead townies. I make 6 and I've got an innocent on BM and distad, which makes 8. BM has an innocent on ChronX, which makes 9 townies. That leaves Gorgon, Atticus and Sonicpulsar as the Scum. However, I don't think that is the case. That arrangement would give us 5 power roles -- Cop, Doc, 2 Masons and JoAT -- versus scum with only 1 power role -- Roleblocker. That seems too unbalanced in favor of the town, even for a speed game. Therefore, I think it is extremely likely we have a Godfather in the game.

I'm also pretty sure Gorgon is a Scum Roleblocker. Here is my argument:

All the scenarios I've been considering include the assumption Gorgon is a scum Roleblocker. I'm now going to try and determine if there is an alternative wherein he is town. First, regardless of his alignment I believe his claim. He said he blocked me night 1 and I was indeed blocked. I don't see how he could have claimed this if he wasn't telling the truth.

I realize I need to clarify my last post a little. In one post I come up with this -- the key part is underlined:

If Battle Mage is innocent it means SP and Atticus are Goons and either distad or ChronX is the GF. I don't buy this since it would give the town 6 power roles versus a GF and 2 Goons. Too unbalanced in favor of the town.

Conclusion: If Gorgon is town then BM isn't innocent and must be the GF

.

In a later post I realize this (key part again underlined):

If Gorgon is town then BM almost has to be town as well

. The only way BM could have known he was RBed was if he was a power role or he and Gorgon were scum together running a gambit. Since in this scenario Gorgon is town, it means BM has to have a power role with a night action. The only night action the GF would have is killing, and since a kill happened it seems logical that if Gorgon is town then BM is a protown power role.

Since this is obviously a contradiction I can only conclude my logic is faulty (I don't think so, but correct me if I'm wrong) or my premise in incorrect. My premise was: "If Gorgon is town". I think that's wrong -- there is no way Gorgon is town.

Based on those assumptions, I see the following possible scenarios based on who the GF could be:

Here’s scenario one (ChronX is the GF and BM and distad are innocent based on my investigations):

Town:
=Confused= (Doctor)
d3sisted I (Vanilla)
Raffles (Vanilla)
Curiouskarmadog (Mason)
d3sisted II (Mason)
Hang ‘em High (Cop)
Battle Mage (Jack-of-all-Trades)
distad (Vanilla)
Either Atticus or Sonicpulsar (Vanilla)

Scum:
Gorgon (Roleblocker/Prostitute)
ChronX (Godfather)
Either Atticus or Sonicpulsar (Goon)

Here’s scenario two (BM is the GF and distad is innocent based on my investigation):

Town:
=Confused= (Doctor)
d3sisted I (Vanilla)
Raffles (Vanilla)
Curiouskarmadog (Mason)
d3sisted II (Mason)
Hang ‘em High (Cop)
distad (Vanilla)
Two of Atticus, Sonicpulsar or ChronX (Vanilla)

Scum:
Gorgon (Roleblocker/Prostitute)
Battle Mage (Godfather)
One of Atticus, Sonicpulsar or ChronX (Goon)

Here's scenario three (distad is the GF and BM and ChronX are innocent based on my investigation):

Town:
=Confused= (Doctor)
d3sisted I (Vanilla)
Raffles (Vanilla)
Curiouskarmadog (Mason)
d3sisted II (Mason)
Hang ‘em High (Cop)
Battle Mage (Jack-of-all-Trades)
ChronX (Vanilla)
Either Atticus or Sonicpulsar (Vanilla)

Scum:
Gorgon (Roleblocker/Prostitute)
distad (Godfather)
Either Atticus or Sonicpulsar (Goon)

Here's scenario four (Atticus or SP are the GF and BM, ChronX & distad are innocent based on my and BM's investigations):

Town:
=Confused= (Doctor)
d3sisted I (Vanilla)
Raffles (Vanilla)
Curiouskarmadog (Mason)
d3sisted II (Mason)
Hang ‘em High (Cop)
Battle Mage (Jack-of-all-Trades)
ChronX (Vanilla)
distad (Vanilla)

Scum:
Gorgon (Roleblocker/Prostitute)
Either Atticus or Sonicpulsar (Godfather)
Either Atticus or Sonicpulsar (Goon)

I know I've talked myself in circles throughout this, so I hope I'm not missing something. Do you buy my first two assumptions: 1) there is a GF and 2) Gorgon is scum RB?

[distad]

I buy that there is a Godfather. I, too, believe Gorgon's claim. There is a 4th alternative that you are not mentioning.

You could be scum with a given cop fake-claim. We have taken the assumption that you are town because no one else has claimed cop and "surely" there would be a cop in the game -- it is among the most basic roles. However, this is a theme game, and I can very much accept the possibility that you were told in your pm that there are no cops, to be used specifically as a safe-claim. It would be a very powerful tool and would easily balance the town power roles.

2 masons, JoaT, RB vs Godfather, 2 Goons with cop safe-claim.

[ChronX]

I am going to be limited in my ability to be online tonight and have meetings tomorrow.

vote: Gorgon

[Hang 'em High]

I buy that there is a Godfather. I, too, believe Gorgon's claim. There is a 4th alternative that you are not mentioning.

You could be scum with a given cop fake-claim. We have taken the assumption that you are town because no one else has claimed cop and "surely" there would be a cop in the game -- it is among the most basic roles. However, this is a theme game, and I can very much accept the possibility that you were told in your pm that there are no cops, to be used specifically as a safe-claim. It would be a very powerful tool and would easily balance the town power roles.

2 masons, JoaT, RB vs Godfather, 2 Goons with cop safe-claim.

Well, you can hardly expect me to try and convince people I'm scum. Obviously I can't prove the validity of my claim -- you'll have to judge that for yourself. While I think you

could

conclude there is no Cop in the game, doesn't it seem unlikely this is the case? I just think one of the scenarios I mentioned is much more likely. And I think it's a real stretch to think there's a scum role who was told there would be no Cop. Is it

possible

? I suppose. But it's kind of far fetched, IMO. When in doubt, look to Occam's razor.

You said you buy that there is a GF and you believe Gorgon's claim. For a second assume you also believe my claim. In that case, does my logic that Gorgon is scum hold up?

[Battle Mage]

BM, could the theme be 2 Mafia, alternating NKs?

where did you pull this idea from?
@Gorgon- i now have confirmation from the Mini List Mod that roles such as JoAT are acceptable in small doses, and that a Speed game is not necessarily themed. I await confirmation on the Mafia RB question, but i'm feeling less happy with Gorgon atm.

[distad]

HeH - I just finished a game where the serial killer was told that there were multiple cops in the game so that he could use it as a safe claim.

Occam's razor is great... unless it's a theme game where anything really could go.

I do think your logic of Gorgon holds up, though, assuming that no one (other than ChronX) has been misleading.

[Battle Mage]

HeH - I just finished a game where the serial killer was told that there were multiple cops in the game so that he could use it as a safe claim.

Occam's razor is great... unless it's a theme game where anything really could go.

I do think your logic of Gorgon holds up, though, assuming that no one (other than ChronX) has been misleading.

do tell (for the newbs like me) what Occam's razor is while i await a reply to my question.

[Hang 'em High]

HeH - I just finished a game where the serial killer was told that there were multiple cops in the game so that he could use it as a safe claim.

Occam's razor is great... unless it's a theme game where anything really could go.

I do think your logic of Gorgon holds up, though, assuming that no one (other than ChronX) has been misleading.

Fair enough. The only games I've been in here are a normal mini and a newbie game. Since I don't have experience in theme games, it's hard for me to speak confidently about what might or might not be included. I'll just say that the stated theme of the game was speed -- which doesn't necessarily mean there can't be other strange things as well. Other than that, I don't know what else I can do to convince you my claim is legitimate. If you have specific doubts please raise them and I'll happily answer.

Now I'm going to revisit my four scenarios and rank them by likelihood.

Scenario 1: ChronX GF, Gorgon RB and either Atticus or SP Goon. Gives the town 5 power roles and the scum 2 power roles. Seems balanced and everybody's play seems to fit. Also could explain ChronX's fake claim since he would know Gorgon targeted BM. Conclusion: Good chance.

Scenario 2: BM GF, Gorgon RB and either Atticus, SP or ChronX Goon. Gives the town 4 power roles and the scum 2. Seems to favor the scum too much. Conclusion: Unlikely.

Scenario 3: distad GF, Gorgon RB and either Atticus or SP Goon. 5 town power roles and 2 for the scum. Seems balanced. Makes ChronX's fake claim less likely since he would have had to guess that someone targeted BM. Conclusion: Possible but not at the top of the list.

Scenario 4: Atticus/SP are GF/Goon and Gorgon is RB. 5 town power roles and 2 scum power roles. Seems balanced. Makes ChronX's fake claim less likely. Conclusion: Possible.

If I had to rank them by likelihood it would go #1, #4, #3 and #2. Meaning I think the Godfather is most likely to be ChronX. Still, the one constant in all of this is my conviction that Gorgon is Scum. Therefore I'm going to:

Vote: Gorgon

[Hang 'em High]

HeH - I just finished a game where the serial killer was told that there were multiple cops in the game so that he could use it as a safe claim.

Occam's razor is great... unless it's a theme game where anything really could go.

I do think your logic of Gorgon holds up, though, assuming that no one (other than ChronX) has been misleading.

do tell (for the newbs like me) what Occam's razor is while i await a reply to my question.

Basically it means the most simple explanation is the most likely to be true.

[distad]

HeH, let me remind you that I wasn't me yet on the night Confused died. Survey Says was doing this job (poorly, or not at all) back then. As best I can determine, SS just didn't bother to use the power.

Nice flavor.

[Hang 'em High]

Hey... I'll be back on in a little while. I just found out that my company was purchased late last night, so I'm not sure whether I need to get drunk or work on my resume or both.

BRB.

I've been meaning to ask how this went. Hope your job is O.K. (or you at least got a great buyout).

[distad]

I followed Gorgon on the night Raffles died. He went to BM's house.

The problem for me was, Gorgon has acted weird this whole game. And he was alluding to claiming due to the pressure BM had been putting on him to claim. And he hammered CKD, although claiming not to have realized he was doing so.

So I followed him again on the night d3sisted/mason was killed. Here's where it gets weird...he didn't go anywhere. His claim is that he went and blocked Atticus.

The problem I have with all of this is that I don't know what it means. Was I roleblocked but not informed, and instead just told he stayed home, as that what it would seem to me? Or did he lie? Or did he lie, but only about who he roleblocked...maybe he roleblocked ME because he doubted my claim, and THAT is what made me get the result I appeared to get. Or maybe he is a mafia roleblocker and roleblocked me because he DIDN'T doubt my claim.

I dragged out sharing this because it is so ambiguous, and I wanted as much untainted info as I could get out of people before I spoke of it. Personally, I wanted to press SP and Atticus to claim before I posted this, but I didn't think the rest of you would have any patience with that, and didn't want to jeopardize my credibility (further). I also wanted to see what people's reactions to HeH's claim would be while it was still fully in doubt (as, unfortunately, it is).

I don't know how to analyze any of this, and will gladly respond to further questions if they will help others analyze.

Here's why I'm going to continue voting for you, ChronX. There are not a lot of set-ups that provide for Gorgon to be pro-town. But this is all lies and misdirection. The WHOLE thing. It is entirely a figment of your imagination. It was created to get us analyzing. But we have been analyzing an alignment that you made up. There's no rhyme or reason for any of it except to get us thinking in several different paths -- the ultimate misdirection.

[distad]

Hey... I'll be back on in a little while. I just found out that my company was purchased late last night, so I'm not sure whether I need to get drunk or work on my resume or both.

BRB.

I've been meaning to ask how this went. Hope your job is O.K. (or you at least got a great buyout).

Thanks for asking. I'm sure that our 'fearless leader' was rewarded handsomely, but the rest of us are still maintaining a tenuous hold on our jobs. I really won't know much more for another month, and so it is going to be a VERY long month.

[distad]

I suppose I don't count if I have an objection?

Distad, your logic is stupid. Blame BM for who he wasted his

alleged

protection on, not me. I urged the CORRECT play with regard to handling the masons. Also, everyone seems to have completely/conveniently forgotten that CKD was giving off more scum vibes than Roach (we've all been in games with Roach, right?).

The reluctantly OK, we'll go for the mason bandwagon crowd is MUCH more suspicious than me; I was pushing for a claimed-mason lynch all along. Why would I do that as scum? Try to answer without resorting to an acronym crutch, you are already abusing LAL.

Man... you're missing the boat on this one. We can't blame BM for wasting his 'alleged' protection. He made the logical move based on your LIE! I agree that a mason was the right play. I said it then and I'll continue to say it. If we were in this position with someone else dead, I'm sure one of the masons would end up on the block and it would likely be game over. The point is that if you had simply said, "Lynch the mason," we would be fine. But you said, "I'm a tracker! Lynch the mason!" and so that one-night of protection was squandered because of you. Stupid logic, my ass.

Why would you want a claimed mason lynched? Because then you could Night Kill the other without leaving a confirmed town in its wake. You couldn't know that BM would have a protection (unless he's scum, in which case you both devised for him to 'have' a protection). It was actually perfect for you.

[Battle Mage]

I'll be on before deadline tomorrow evening hopefully. will post then.

[ChronX]

Home from coaching. Remind me why I volunteer every fall? Oh right, I love MY kids. Don't much care for anyone else's especially after 7 weeks. *sigh*

Anyway.

I was discussing this game with a friend from work who plays Diplomacy. We came up with an analogy:

When you aerate your lawn, you dig up those little plugs that look like duck poop. Anyone looking at your lawn, and not wanting to touch duck poop, wouldn't really know if you had duck poop on your lawn, or had aerated. A logical person would assume one of the 2 situations though.

Here's the problem at mafiascum: (continuing the analogy). If my neighbor told you that he had seen me aerating my lawn, mafiascum players would then conclude that I USED to have duckpoop on my lawn, and had aerated my lawn to cover up the fact that I had duckpoop on it by mixing in the little dirt plugs.

Distad, you are following the same logic. You are overthinking my claim and unclaim. I didn't unclaim because "Atticus caught me in a lie". I claimed to set a trap, and to advance the agenda I wanted advanced. I also honestly thought I had claimed something crappy and would be a decent sacrifice to keep anyone real like a cop or the masons, safe. I unclaimed because I thought there were a few townies who could see the fallacies constructed on the foundation of my lie. I underestimated the reliance of players on this site on their beloved acronyms, like LAL.

YOU aren't voting me because you think I'm scum and always have. You saw me as one of the most town players BEFORE my claim. You believed my claim, so you must have continued to think of me as town. You weren't even all that sceptical of my claim later. No one really was; Atticus has been pushing against me for a while for flimsy reasons (he accused me of following others logic, shortly after which he admitted to reading less than half the game); pressure from Atticus was no reason to unclaim.

I unclaimed because I overestimated the logical abilities of the town. I should have continued to play out my hand, and stuck with my original frustrated reaction during the non-lynch while CKD was still alive, which by the way, continued on PAST the original deadline of Oct 3. No one was going anywhere, despite the fact that a no lynch put us FURTHER behind than a mislynch. Dead doc, remember?

Tha mafia have done a masterful job of paralyzing this town into fruitless inaction. You either ARE mafia (I still think unlikely, if we only have 1 mafia) or are being their willing victim. You are now getting caught up in LAL nonsense instead of looking out for what is best for the town.

I am NOT the best lynch today. There is NO reason for me to have unclaimed beyond another misguided attempt to get the town to see the light. The RIGHT play was to lynch a mason, even if the masses had to be duped into doing it. The right play is NEVER to place unquestioning trust in someone who claims, which is what everyone did with the mason claim, my claim, and all the claims that have followed. If I had been scum, there would be NOTHING to be gained for me to unclaim and subject myself to this barrage of illogic. Its also ridiculous to propose that as a mafia member, I benefitted from lynching a mason. If I had been mafia, I would KNOW the masons weren't part of my mafia and gain NOTHING by having them verified publically. The mafia know who ALL of their enemies are, Distad. They don't need anything verified.

I posted an excellent case against SP earlier today, and he vanished like Roadrunner and hasn't responded. The case for Gorgon is strong and fits any number of what if scenarios. They are the best 2 places for a townie to place their vote. BM, heH and yes, you Distad, are as suspect as me, whether or not I am believed to be town. Neither is a good vote today, because of unsurety. A vote on any of those 3 would be anti town. By the same rationale, your vote on me is....anti-town, because it exposes the town to lynching a town member.

[distad]

Home from coaching. Remind me why I volunteer every fall? Oh right, I love MY kids. Don't much care for anyone else's especially after 7 weeks. *sigh*

Anyway.

I'll read the rest in a second. I coach HS baseball. I *totally* understand.