Open 33: Crush Mafia (Game Over) before 471

[Erg0]

/confirmitude

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Vote: somestrangeflea

for having the temerity to vote before me...

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Given that this game has a somewhat unusual setup, it might be useful if we have some discussion on basic tactics before we get into the serious stuff. I'd really hate for us to give the lyncher an easy ride here.

The most important thing to remember is that we effectively have two scum groups here - one group (the mafia) is trying to kill all of us, but the other (the lyncher) is only interested in killing one specific individual, and must kill them via a lynch. For this reason we must be especially careful with our lynches until the lyncher is found - be particularly aware of anyone who seems overly keen to get a lynch on a specific target. There are a few other tells that I've thought of that may be displayed by this player, but I'll save those until I need them.

Having thought about this, what does everybody think of the idea of going with a "no lynch" vote today? There's a 40% chance that the mafia will kill either the lyncher or the lynchee tonight, which would clear us to scum hunt for the remainder of the game without having to worry about the possibility of a game-ending mislynch. I'll run some stats on possible scenarios and post those in a bit.

Mod: if the lyncher's target dies by night kill, will their role be revealed?

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Ok, according to my calculations it works out like this (numbers are rounded):

If we lynch today then there's a 14% chance of hitting the lynch target and ending the game, and a 14% chance of hitting the lyncher and eliminating him/her as a problem. There's a 72% chance that we'll hit either a townie or mafia and still have the lyncher problem going into night 1. Extending that to include the odds of a NK on the lyncher or the lynchee (50% if we lynch town, 40% if we lynch scum), there's a 47% chance that we'll wake up tomorrow with the lyncher problem eliminated one way or the other.

As noted above, a no vote gives us a 40% chance of having the lyncher or the lynchee eliminated tonight, so a lynch today appears to be favourable in this respect.

Looking at possible overall scenarios for tomorrow, if we lynch today then the rough odds of various combinations of roles tomorrow are as follows (note that in scenarios where the lyncher is dead I count the lynchee as a normal townie):

25% - 3 town, 2 mafia (LyLo)
22% - 1 town, lynchee, lyncher, 2 mafia (LyLo, lyncher in play)
17% - 3 town, lynchee, lyncher, 1 mafia (lyncher in play)
14% - lyncher wins day 1 (town loss)
11% - 2 town, lyncher, 2 mafia (LyLo)
5.5% - 3 town, lyncher, 1 mafia
5.5% - 4 town, 1 mafia

If we choose a no lynch today, this is what we get:

60% - 2 town, lynchee, lyncher, 2 mafia (LyLo, lyncher in play)
20% - 3 town, 1 lyncher, 2 mafia (LyLo)
20% - 4 town, 2 mafia (LyLo)

Obviously this is all based on random voting, but it's a decent place to start, I think. These numbers are probably out by a bit (I didn't take into account the possibility of there being no kill tonight, for instance) but I think they're roughly right. Feel free to correct me if you work it out for yourself.

The obvious point to be made is that a no lynch will put us in LyLo, no matter who dies tonight. There is also a higher chance of the lyncher being in play tomorrow if we don't lynch today. However, there is a 14% chance that we will lose instantly today if we lynch, and no chance of this happening if we don't. I'll let this sink in for a bit before I post any more thoughts.

[Erg0]

EBWOP: The mod has told me that the lyncher becomes a normal townie if the lynchee dies. Based on that, the percentages are revised as follows:

Lynch Day 1

36% - 3 town, 2 mafia (LyLo)
22% - 1 town, lynchee, lyncher, 2 mafia (LyLo, lyncher in play)
17% - 3 town, lynchee, lyncher, 1 mafia (lyncher in play)
14% - lyncher wins day 1 (town loss)
11% - 4 town, 1 mafia

No Lynch Day 1

60% - 2 town, lynchee, lyncher, 2 mafia (LyLo, lyncher in play)
40% - 4 town, 2 mafia (LyLo)

[Erg0]

Erm... yup, I guess I did forget. Sorry, I just completely missed the significance of the Godfather role in this game. I'm not sure what SSF is implying that I may have gained from "forgetting" this, though.

I don't have time right now to check SSF's revised stats, but they look roughly right. I suppose this moves us further in the direction of definitely wanting to lynch on day 1, since we have an equal chance of winning or losing the game instantly if we do, whereas I had us with only a chance of an instant loss.

OTOH, historically speaking the lynch on day 1 seems statistically more likely to be a townie (they just seem worse at defending themselves), and if we lynch a townie then there's a 1 in 4 chance that we lose the game. I'm still a bit torn on which is the best course of action right now.

[Erg0]

I

wish

I was clever enough to think as far ahead as xyzzy's reaction.

(Makes note of possible future scum tactic)

Unvote: somestrangeflea

, since it was random.

You're right, it is risk vs reward. Given that there are no claims to be made in this game other than "townie", I suppose that day 1 voting is going to be essentially random. Even day 2 voting isn't going to be particularly informed, I suspect. Based on that, I think we have to go with the option that gives the town the best statistical chance of victory, which is to trust our judgement and make a lynch on day 1.

The only question now is - who?

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You know what would be good is if someone else actually talked... seems there are a few motivated lurkers in our midst...

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Actually, could we get a

vote count

too please? My statustical analysis doesn't seem to have provoked as much discussion as I'd hoped. Or is this a tacit approval of a no vote?

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Well I'm here, can't speak for everyone else. Are we just too scared to make a decision or have 5 players simultaneously disappeared?

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JDodge: it's not like there's no content at all. How about a comment on the statistics from page 2, and maybe what your preferred strategy is? There's more to this particular game than just voting for the person you find scummy.

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If you're not going to strategise at least a little in a game with a potential instant town loss then you're not going to be very helpful.

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Glancing at Open 25, it was won by the Jester (which was not you). What's your point?

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JDodge: You've just proven my point, which is that scumhunting alone is not going to win the game. We need to also consider strategies to avoid letting the lyncher win.

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Nobody's talking about a complex strategy, did you even read the quote you just posted? I said "If you're not going to strategise

at least a little

". I'm not expecting essays, just some indication that people are aware of the win/lose conditions that we're facing and are adjusting their play as necessary.

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Does this mean we can start playing again? I'll repeat myself: there is plenty of stuff in my posts that could be commented upon.

[Erg0]

STRATEGY IS 100% NECESSARY!

This game setup demands strategizing, fool. I strongly suspect you're one of two targeting people.

Those people, by the way, are the ones we should be looking for. Play the game like a normal game, but hold off any lynches. The two lyncher variations will have to do something eventually; once trends start forming and it's obvious someone wants a particular person lynched, we lynch them.

Much as I agree, I don't see where the "two lyncher variations" are. We only have one lyncher in this game, and two potential game-ending targets (the GF and the lyncher's target).

[Erg0]

Why do you say that the goon is more important than the godfather?

(This is a genuine question, I'm not sure if that was a typo or if there's something I missed)

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Interesting, but if we decide in-thread to follow that strategy then it allows the scum/lyncher to just do the opposite of what we would be looking for, hence foiling our cunning plan. It is an interesting talking point, but we probably shouldn't state too specifically what we're looking for, or the bad guys simply won't do it.

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Are you replacing HH, Ben?

I was going to vote xyzzy for the same reason as JDodge, but I believe HH's vote is still sitting on him and I don't want to put him at lynch-1 for obvious reasons. Let's just say that I have similar objections to JDodge regarding this plan.

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Apparently he has a role but we don't know who he's replacing yet, so I'm going to wait to find that out before I talk any more about it.

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I had a brainwave about xyzzy's plan this afternoon. The problem with running people up to lynch-1 and seeing if anyone jumps is that if the person at lynch-1 happens to be the lynchee, and the lyncher isn't already on the wagon, he gets an insta-win.

We should probably try to have as few people at lynch-1 during the course of the day as possible to avoid this.

Vote: xyzzy

for proposing a plan that plays into the lyncher's hands.

[Erg0]

Probably "How can I get them to run my target up to lynch-1 without me having to do anything?"

I'm in two minds about this - the level of activity in this game is so dismal right now that I almost feel like we should lynch

somebody

just to get things moving. I realise that's an appalling attitude, but this game is seriously going nowhere right now. Maybe xyzzy being at lynch-1 will prompt some action from somebody...

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Wouldn't mind some input from Fernando at this point, and maybe something from JDodge as well. I'm not inclined to move my vote off xyzzy, but I'm not sure that I want to lynch him either.

[Erg0]

Hmm, I didn't think about that.

You're right, though - that's a big flaw of my plan. My plan assumes people will play their role, rather than letting others do it for them.

Plan suggestion revoked.

This looks like a plea to pull votes off. I'm sticking with mine right now unless it changes in the atmoshpere.

Incidentally, that sounded very wagonny (not a word). Sounds like you're just going to follow others in deciding where to place your vote.

[Erg0]

Well, at least we can deduce some information from the fact that you sat on lynch-1 for a while without being lynched.

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Well, there's no "if any" in this game - the only thing that will happen tonight is that the scum will make a kill. I've already gone over the stats as to why this isn't necessarily the best move statistically, but if we're really that paralysed by indecision then it may not be the worst option, especially if the scum happen to kill the lyncher or lynchee tonight and clear us to concentrate on hunting scum tomorrow.

Plan B would probably be to lynch xyzzy and hope for the best, though honestly it would be a pretty baseless lynch right now...

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This is looking like it's going to be a no lynch by way of inertia... I'd really like to improve our odds of actually getting a win by lynching

someone

, but we're unlikely to be able to establish much more information today in the time we have (and with the activity level that we have).

I take it nobody else is on board with lynching xyzzy?

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It might not be that bad, but it's not that good either. I guess it's not like we're getting anywhere as it is...

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Have we lost Rand? He hasn't posted on the site since he set the deadline.

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Do you mean stronger, rather than stranger? If so, I agree that we're better off now because we're able to act more decisively. Having said that, we no longer have the luxury of being able to make a mislynch without losing.

I am a little concerned at what I suspect was a general lack of information from day 1, especially since we know for sure that there's no cop coming to save us. I'm going for a hunt through the posts now to see what I can find on the scum.

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Ok, xyzzy and Fernando both posted on the site today, but not in this thread, obviously. Inarticulation looks to be long gone - no posts since the 1st from him.

I'm seriously beginning to despair of ever finishing this game, though I suppose the one week deadline will ensure that we get a lynch today. We're SOL if Flea and I don't agree on the target, though.

[Erg0]

Agreed.

Vote: Inarticulation

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Sorry, but I must protest. A lynch is a lynch, everyone here should know the rules without having to be explicitly told how many votes are required. Allowing people to unvote after a lynch compromises one of the basic principles of the game, not to mention basically reverses the result in this case.