Open 33: Crush Mafia (Game Over) before 471

[Erg0]

EBWOP: The mod has told me that the lyncher becomes a normal townie if the lynchee dies. Based on that, the percentages are revised as follows:

Lynch Day 1

36% - 3 town, 2 mafia (LyLo)
22% - 1 town, lynchee, lyncher, 2 mafia (LyLo, lyncher in play)
17% - 3 town, lynchee, lyncher, 1 mafia (lyncher in play)
14% - lyncher wins day 1 (town loss)
11% - 4 town, 1 mafia

No Lynch Day 1

60% - 2 town, lynchee, lyncher, 2 mafia (LyLo, lyncher in play)
40% - 4 town, 2 mafia (LyLo)

[Honary Hitchhiker]

Good caculations Erg0. However I'm not going to vote no lynch just yet, I want to see how everybody else responds further in Day 1 to get a grasp on everybodies motives.

[Rand Althor]

Hmm. We have a set day one deadline. We have until next Thursday...

Mod: Does the classic "Majority of Majority votes needed to lynch at deadline" rule apply, or what will happen?

Whoever has the most votes at deadline will be lynched. If there is a tie then the last voter will be discounted.

[somestrangeflea]

EBWOP: The mod has told me that the lyncher becomes a normal townie if the lynchee dies. Based on that, the percentages are revised as follows:

Lynch Day 1

36% - 3 town, 2 mafia (LyLo)
22% - 1 town, lynchee, lyncher, 2 mafia (LyLo, lyncher in play)
17% - 3 town, lynchee, lyncher, 1 mafia (lyncher in play)
14% - lyncher wins day 1 (town loss)
11% - 4 town, 1 mafia

No Lynch Day 1

60% - 2 town, lynchee, lyncher, 2 mafia (LyLo, lyncher in play)
40% - 4 town, 2 mafia (LyLo)

You failed to take into account the the Town automatically wins day 1 if the GF is lynched.

Unvote
Vote: Erg0

I can see how you would perhaps not know how the Lyncher worked in the game, but "forgetting" about the GF just seems wrong.

[somestrangeflea]

Erg0's No-Lynch stats are correct, but here are the modified Lynch stats, assuming all lynches and NKs are random.

Lynch Day 1

Town Win - 14%
Town Loss - 14%
4 Townies, 1 Mafia (Lyncher out of Play) - 5%
4 Townies, 1 Mafia (Lyncher in Play) - 8%
3 Townies, 2 Mafia (LyLo, Lyncher in Play) - 21%
3 Townies, 2 Mafia (LyLo, Lyncher out of Play) - 35%

[somestrangeflea]

EDWOP:
Town Win = GF lynched
Town Loss = Lynchee lynched

[xyzzy]

Finally here!

Vote: SSF

Because not knowing how the GF works would imply that he's... not the GF. Duh.

[somestrangeflea]

Why do you think I put "quotes" around the word forgot?

Now shh.

[Erg0]

Erm... yup, I guess I did forget. Sorry, I just completely missed the significance of the Godfather role in this game. I'm not sure what SSF is implying that I may have gained from "forgetting" this, though.

I don't have time right now to check SSF's revised stats, but they look roughly right. I suppose this moves us further in the direction of definitely wanting to lynch on day 1, since we have an equal chance of winning or losing the game instantly if we do, whereas I had us with only a chance of an instant loss.

OTOH, historically speaking the lynch on day 1 seems statistically more likely to be a townie (they just seem worse at defending themselves), and if we lynch a townie then there's a 1 in 4 chance that we lose the game. I'm still a bit torn on which is the best course of action right now.

[somestrangeflea]

Erm... yup, I guess I did forget. Sorry, I just completely missed the significance of the Godfather role in this game. I'm not sure what SSF is implying that I may have gained from "forgetting" this, though.

Well, read the above post by xyzzy, and you'll see exactly what you gained. Xyzzy cleared you as GF because you forgot it. I was just testing for a response though, and I felt this was adequate.

Unvote

OTOH, historically speaking the lynch on day 1 seems statistically more likely to be a townie (they just seem worse at defending themselves), and if we lynch a townie then there's a 1 in 4 chance that we lose the game. I'm still a bit torn on which is the best course of action right now.

Basically, this comes down to the balance of risk versus reward. Do we want to risk handing the game to the lyncher, for a chance at getting the GF, when the odds of either happening are equal?

[Erg0]

I

wish

I was clever enough to think as far ahead as xyzzy's reaction.

(Makes note of possible future scum tactic)

Unvote: somestrangeflea

, since it was random.

You're right, it is risk vs reward. Given that there are no claims to be made in this game other than "townie", I suppose that day 1 voting is going to be essentially random. Even day 2 voting isn't going to be particularly informed, I suspect. Based on that, I think we have to go with the option that gives the town the best statistical chance of victory, which is to trust our judgement and make a lynch on day 1.

The only question now is - who?

[somestrangeflea]

Hmm. Well, firstly, it could be helpful to find out whether or not we actually want a lynch, and so I propose an "Unofficial Lynch/No-Lynch Vote."

[Erg0]

You know what would be good is if someone else actually talked... seems there are a few motivated lurkers in our midst...

[FeRnAnDo]

not lynching isn't an option, random and pressure votes are essential in early game.

unvote, Vote: Honary Hitchhiker

happy birthday

He wrote:

Good caculations Erg0. However I'm not going to vote no lynch just yet, I want to see how everybody else responds further in Day 1 to get a grasp on everybodies motives.

i'm possibly wrong, but isn't that basicaly saying " I'm going to lurk for a while" ?

[Honary Hitchhiker]

not lynching isn't an option, random and pressure votes are essential in early game.

unvote, Vote: Honary Hitchhiker

happy birthday

He wrote:

Good caculations Erg0. However I'm not going to vote no lynch just yet, I want to see how everybody else responds further in Day 1 to get a grasp on everybodies motives.

i'm possibly wrong, but isn't that basicaly saying " I'm going to lurk for a while" ?

Noes I'm posting as the game goes on while examining everybody to see what their motive is.

[xyzzy]

So your motive is to find motives?

That sounds almost protown, but assuming that others will reveal their true motives requires knowledge of who has the motive of killing us all.

FoS: HH

[JDodge]

So your motive is to find motives?

That sounds almost protown, but assuming that others will reveal their true motives requires knowledge of who has the motive of killing us all.

FoS: HH

Isn't that kind of WIFOM?

[somestrangeflea]

So your motive is to find motives?

That sounds almost protown, but assuming that others will reveal their true motives requires knowledge of who has the motive of killing us all.

FoS: HH

Isn't that kind of WIFOM?

I don't think that that counts as WIFOM. I'm not an expert on the topic though...

Shameless deadline avoidance FTW

[somestrangeflea]

Mod: Mass prods & deadline retraction please. I know you said it was non-negotiable, but I'm hardly going to get a majority on my own, am I?

[Erg0]

Actually, could we get a

vote count

too please? My statustical analysis doesn't seem to have provoked as much discussion as I'd hoped. Or is this a tacit approval of a no vote?

[Zindaras]

Hi. I just noticed Rand Althor is modding this game. He has problems getting on MS and may require replacement (or so he has told me).

[Rand Althor]

Back will get caught up.

[Rand Althor]

Vote count will be up tomorrow. Deadline is reset to 10 days from today at 1:00pm pst.

[Rand Althor]

Vote count

xyzzy:HH
SSF: Jdodge, xyzzy
Ergo: Dylan
HH: Fernando

[somestrangeflea]

Is there anybody else here?

Anybody?