"Gather around children. I'm going to tell you a story" The grandfather said looking at his 7 grand kids. "The place New York. The time was the 1920's and the mafia roots were growing in New York...
Rules
1)Do not talk to anyone else outside of the game.
2)Do not quote your PM
3)No editing your Post.
4)You may post one post when you die. But it shall have no game content whatsoever.
5)If you are prodded 3 times in one day (without a good reason) you are replaced.
Deadlines
Day 1 will last for 10 days(NonNegotiable)
Every day after will last for 7 days(Negotiable)
Nights will last for 3 days
Game setup
1 mafia godfather (vengeful-style)
1 mafia goon
1 lyncher (who is informed of his target)
4 townies (one of whom is unknowingly the lyncher's target)
[b][u]People who need to die in a game[/u][/b]
Rishi- For critizing me for missing his vote on the vote count.
BM- For lynching me as doctor. >=(
Myself- For being so damn hard to be agreeable with.
[b][u]People who need to die in a game[/u][/b]
Rishi- For critizing me for missing his vote on the vote count.
BM- For lynching me as doctor. >=(
Myself- For being so damn hard to be agreeable with.
Given that this game has a somewhat unusual setup, it might be useful if we have some discussion on basic tactics before we get into the serious stuff. I'd really hate for us to give the lyncher an easy ride here.
The most important thing to remember is that we effectively have two scum groups here - one group (the mafia) is trying to kill all of us, but the other (the lyncher) is only interested in killing one specific individual, and must kill them via a lynch. For this reason we must be especially careful with our lynches until the lyncher is found - be particularly aware of anyone who seems overly keen to get a lynch on a specific target. There are a few other tells that I've thought of that may be displayed by this player, but I'll save those until I need them.
Having thought about this, what does everybody think of the idea of going with a "no lynch" vote today? There's a 40% chance that the mafia will kill either the lyncher or the lynchee tonight, which would clear us to scum hunt for the remainder of the game without having to worry about the possibility of a game-ending mislynch. I'll run some stats on possible scenarios and post those in a bit.
Mod: if the lyncher's target dies by night kill, will their role be revealed?
"You were doing well until everyone died."
V/LA most weekends.
Ok, according to my calculations it works out like this (numbers are rounded):
If we lynch today then there's a 14% chance of hitting the lynch target and ending the game, and a 14% chance of hitting the lyncher and eliminating him/her as a problem. There's a 72% chance that we'll hit either a townie or mafia and still have the lyncher problem going into night 1. Extending that to include the odds of a NK on the lyncher or the lynchee (50% if we lynch town, 40% if we lynch scum), there's a 47% chance that we'll wake up tomorrow with the lyncher problem eliminated one way or the other.
As noted above, a no vote gives us a 40% chance of having the lyncher or the lynchee eliminated tonight, so a lynch today appears to be favourable in this respect.
Looking at possible overall scenarios for tomorrow, if we lynch today then the rough odds of various combinations of roles tomorrow are as follows (note that in scenarios where the lyncher is dead I count the lynchee as a normal townie):
Obviously this is all based on random voting, but it's a decent place to start, I think. These numbers are probably out by a bit (I didn't take into account the possibility of there being no kill tonight, for instance) but I think they're roughly right. Feel free to correct me if you work it out for yourself.
The obvious point to be made is that a no lynch will put us in LyLo, no matter who dies tonight. There is also a higher chance of the lyncher being in play tomorrow if we don't lynch today. However, there is a 14% chance that we will lose instantly today if we lynch, and no chance of this happening if we don't. I'll let this sink in for a bit before I post any more thoughts.
"You were doing well until everyone died."
V/LA most weekends.
