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Post Post #7425 (ISO) » Sun Mar 22, 2015 7:41 pm

Post by ooba »

In post 7305, mastin2 wrote:Well, damn. So much for my theory. (Outside godfather in which case Magua would be the luckiest son of a bitch ever.)
If I had gotten the result I was
hoping
for, we'd have dead scum in an instant, but alas, Magua is town.


I copped Magua last night and he is Order-aligned, thus, conftown. He was the read I was keeping close to my chest as a scumread, but that was clearly wrong.


Such a fucking waste.
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Post Post #7426 (ISO) » Sun Mar 22, 2015 7:56 pm

Post by vezokpiraka »

In post 7421, ZeL1nK wrote:Does the opposite happen if he flips scum?

I'm down. I'll sheep you if tso flips scum.
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Post Post #7427 (ISO) » Sun Mar 22, 2015 7:59 pm

Post by ZeL1nK »

Grand.
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Post Post #7428 (ISO) » Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:06 pm

Post by mastin2 »

Right. So the mod answered my question. I will, in fact, leave bees on someone I target with my cop, in spite of my cop removing the bees on them. (The cop is my ultimate.) However, the bees will not spread to the target (if any) of my target. In other words, my target won't get the passive track for that night, but will continue to have it even after being copped, for future nights.
In post 7320, vezokpiraka wrote:If you would've copped TSO it would've made me feel better. TSO is most probably town, but there is still the little paranoia that thinks he might be scum.
Well, if he's not lynched today, then that'd be a viable option, especially since I don't really have many ideas.

I mean, one of my ideas was Anti, but he's apparently a psychic and told me
not
to, soyeah.
In post 7323, farside22 wrote:Why did you play your cards close to your chest if you are unkillable?
Multiple reasons. As a start, I told FT yesterday, while I cannot be killed, if I am "killed", then I lose the roleblocking and redirection immunity. Then there's the fact that while my night action cannot be blocked, my day action (the bees themselves) in theory could be. Furthermore, while the scum can't interfere with ME, that doesn't mean it's impossible for them to have a tailor/framer on their team and my ability once outted is much easier to counter. And on that note, I wasn't happy about the prospect of claiming in the first place--I agreed to claim because I thought it necessary to protect my buddies and due to the above there wouldn't be much of a risk in doing so, but all the same, it's a fact that the longer I kept my mouth shut, the more likely it would be that we'd achieve our ideal result.

Regrettably, we have not. Which brings me to the final reason, that being, ~reasons~ relating to why a scum result would've been awesome.
Like I said, I've revealed most of the cards, but I'm still holding onto a couple, because if I can get a guilty, then I will impress everyone. My group would become conftown of conftown, instead of just conftown-by-trusting-me. Revealing those cards robs that.

But let me put it to you this way.
You ignore what I say, and then after the truth is revealed, you WILL facepalm and go, "why the heck did I do that?", understand EXACTLY why I've done as I have, and wonder why you were so idiotic in trying to force my hand against my wishes. (Especially when I have an established track record of when not wanting to reveal, not wanting to reveal for
damn good reasons
.)
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Post Post #7429 (ISO) » Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:12 pm

Post by ZeL1nK »

You get "order aligned" or "not order aligned"?

I would suggest Snowflake, but that requires pikari not targeting him.
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Post Post #7430 (ISO) » Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:13 pm

Post by ZeL1nK »

To be clear, I'd like to clear up whether he's third party, I don't feel all that strongly he's on the Pumbaa scum team (but clearing that up as well couldn't hurt).
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Post Post #7431 (ISO) » Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:15 pm

Post by mastin2 »

In post 7341, Imperium wrote:I don't understand why ZZZX is 100% confirmed to you, mastin: all I got was that he targeted you with an ability that was confirmed (what ability?) and that he hasn't used a night action since D1.
An ability that was confirmed. :P

Plus, other things that have happened in there make ZX town too.
At this point, I'd basically say that I'd let myself be lynched before ZX or Drixx, conditional on my flip confirming them as town. (I
could
out the info, as an alternative, but honestly, I think it's knowledge better taken to the grave than outted, because they are not scum and thus the only people gaining from it would be scum.)
...Obviously not exactly my plan A at this point, mind you. :P My plan is to get a guilty so that I can deliver swift and decisive death upon the scum, conftowning them in the process.
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Post Post #7432 (ISO) » Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:18 pm

Post by vezokpiraka »

In post 7430, ZeL1nK wrote:To be clear, I'd like to clear up whether he's third party, I don't feel all that strongly he's on the Pumbaa scum team (but clearing that up as well couldn't hurt).

Because that is our problem right now. What if ms is third party. Why would we cop people who might be scum when we can waste it somewhere else.

@mastin: do whatever. You're town.
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Post Post #7433 (ISO) » Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:19 pm

Post by Metal Sonic »

In post 7429, ZeL1nK wrote:You get "order aligned" or "not order aligned"?

I would suggest Snowflake, but that requires pikari not targeting him.




No, and no.

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Post Post #7434 (ISO) » Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:22 pm

Post by ZeL1nK »

If TSO actually flips scum like I expect he will, group scum isn't doing *that* well at the moment, so yeah, I would actually like to find out whether Snowflake is third party.

I mean, if TSO flips scum, we're looking at what? 2 more group scum? In 17 players? Who cares? I'm more worried about a potential third party coasting by as "confirmed town".
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Post Post #7435 (ISO) » Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:29 pm

Post by mastin2 »

In post 7350, Heartless wrote:CHINESE : Metal, Skybird, TWIE
NORSE:
The Mask
, Ace,
AP

MAYAN: Xombie, ZZZX, Mastin
ROMAN: Imperium,
Solar
, Bitmap, TD
HINDU:
Pere
, Farside, FT,
Anamikus

GREEK:
Magua
, Vezo,
Beast
, TSO
EGYPTIAN: ooba,
ceph
, heartless,
andy
^List including Andy's townflip and my order result on Magua.

Honestly, I'm a bit directionless.
I don't think ooba is scum, because his reaction to getting dayvigged before TD changed the target was insanely town; I simply can't see scum faking that. If there's a second scum in there, it'd be Heartless, who is a big giant ? to me and is saying they're off-limits.
I don't particularly think Vezok is scum, because I don't exactly have an explanation for the failed nightkills aside from his protect. That said, I don't particularly think he's town, either, butstill. And there's TSO where there's nothing town and Zelink brings up a lot of good points for why he'd be scum, but I dunno there, either. I just...don't feel like lynching him. I don't know why.
FourTrouble is without a doubt town, thanks to the immensely pro-town dayvig along with solid play and also a decent (albeit wrong) vig shot. Farside, on the other hand, is right now a giant question mark, because I don't know.
I think there should be scum in Roman simply by POE, but heck if I'd know who. I could see it as any of Imperium/Esp/Zelink in theory, even though I lean against Zelink and have held an Esp townread. It could even be two scum, for all I know. But I haven't the slightest idea.
Ace is a fairly meh-read. If I had to assign an alignment, it'd be town, but I don't really have any backing for that.
Metal is town the same way FT is, but I could see either Skybird or TWIE as scum. Something I saw (but for the life of me, can't remember) made me doubt Skybird was scum, and something made me keep TWIE out of the scum pile, yet I don't remember and certainly don't put much stock in it.

So Heartless, {vezok/
TSO
}, farside, {Imperium/Espeonage/Zelink},
theaceofspades
, and {Skybird/
TWIE
}. Neighborhoods-wise, there's where my focus is. But that's basically worthless. :/
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Post Post #7436 (ISO) » Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:29 pm

Post by ooba »

What I'm more interested in is that MS's ultimate should have reset by today. But he makes no mention of it.

@Mastin
: Your Magua read\cop. Was it discussed in your neighbourhood about who you're going to target? Did either of the us two suggest\inception the idea?
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Post Post #7437 (ISO) » Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:35 pm

Post by ZeL1nK »

In post 7436, ooba wrote:What I'm more interested in is that MS's ultimate should have reset by today. But he makes no mention of it.

It's tomorrow.
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Post Post #7438 (ISO) » Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:39 pm

Post by ZeL1nK »

If TSO flips scum, we should just have a proper mass claim tomorrow where all the information is on the table. I think it will help with co-ordinating actions more effectively and clear up some things.
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Post Post #7439 (ISO) » Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:41 pm

Post by mastin2 »

Radical idea I had.

Would people be receptive to a massclaim at this point?

...I know that we'd lose a lot of our edge role-wise. Nobody knows this better than ME, who is holding a couple of cards back. But my logic is basically that, with a couple of exceptions here and there, it seems like everyone in their neighborhood knows the claims of their neighbors
anyway
.

And of course, we'd need to do so strategically. Have people who haven't claimed in their neighborhoods near or at the front, but otherwise proceeding as normal, with people generally considered scummy being earlier than those not scummy. (Yes. I am fully aware this'd put me near the front. But I'm kinda desperate, because short of no-lynching and hoping for a guilty, I'm not getting anywhere right now reads-wise.) No more secrets, no more lies (except from the scum of course), a FULLY open playing field where all our cards are on the table and we can best figure out this mess. We see inside the heads of the neighbors who have claimed their abilities, to know
why
they have been seen as so town, can analyze it, and make our own judgements.

This process would also, by extent, require divulgence of the happenings inside the neighborhoods, as accurately paraphrased as possible.

This is an all-or-nothing idea, though. If we start down this path, we have to lynch/dayvig those who refuse to comply. It'd definitely have a lot of disadvantages, for the price of clarity and potential synchronization as advantages.

Thoughts?
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Post Post #7440 (ISO) » Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:43 pm

Post by mastin2 »

In post 7412, Metal Sonic wrote:mastin's grand reveal was not so grand after all.
i am going "meh" rather "wow"
meh
Like I said, if I had gotten a guilty, you would be in awe. :/
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Post Post #7441 (ISO) » Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:47 pm

Post by mastin2 »

In post 7414, Drixx wrote:It would have been staggeringly impressive if she hadn't had the night 2 snafu and we had been able to do what we wanted to a guilty result. It would have conftowned our entire neighborhood since the plan called for all three of us to do our part. I don't really want to say any more because it's still possible to make it work and ensure a town win.
^What Drixx said. Not revealing all our cards can still allow for some awesome work to be done. I'd reveal if I thought that it was worth it to do so (a massclaim along with a paraphrase of the neighborhood being one such example, and obviously a guilty being another), but otherwise, the less said the better.
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Post Post #7442 (ISO) » Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:49 pm

Post by ZeL1nK »

In post 7426, vezokpiraka wrote:
In post 7421, ZeL1nK wrote:Does the opposite happen if he flips scum?

I'm down. I'll sheep you if tso flips scum.

Actually, would you agree to this condition as well? If TSO flips scum, you use your ability on me tonight. I will most likely only need it for one night, so after that do whatever.
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Post Post #7443 (ISO) » Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:52 pm

Post by mastin2 »

In post 7429, ZeL1nK wrote:You get "order aligned" or "not order aligned"?
It doesn't say what form the results will be in my PM. It just says I'll receive their alignment. Given that I received Order on Magua, this'd mean I'd presumably receive "self-aligned" for third parties, and presumably "Chaos-aligned" for scum.
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Post Post #7444 (ISO) » Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:59 pm

Post by mastin2 »

In post 7436, ooba wrote:
@Mastin
: Your Magua read\cop. Was it discussed in your neighbourhood about who you're going to target? Did either of the us two suggest\inception the idea?
It was all me. I've been the one basically spearheading the efforts in the neighborhood. Xombie did a little bit of work, and Drixx basically picked up where Xombie left off, but my Magua read was all-me. Drixx can confirm that I had the desire to cop him since D2, given my rant about changing my action, and that I gave my reasons why in there multiple times (albeit never once in great detail).

Magua was, frankly, playing like scum-trying-to-look-town to me. His stances seemed like they were entirely beneficial for a scum wincon, so damn right I wanted to cop him. I knew from personal experience exactly how good Magua is at looking town when scum, plus I knew that in the off chance that I was wrong about him (welp), having a conftown Magua would be an extreme asset.
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Post Post #7445 (ISO) » Sun Mar 22, 2015 9:02 pm

Post by mastin2 »

In post 7438, ZeL1nK wrote:If TSO flips scum, we should just have a proper mass claim tomorrow where all the information is on the table. I think it will help with co-ordinating actions more effectively and clear up some things.
How the bloody hell did you manage to post this immediately before I thought up my idea?

I swear I didn't see your post. :facepalm:

Butyeah, I think my stance on this is fairly clear: though it'd have a few downsides, I
am
willing, provided that EVERYONE claims and that we get neighborhood paraphrases to accompany it.
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Post Post #7446 (ISO) » Sun Mar 22, 2015 9:05 pm

Post by ooba »

Some rudimentary wagon analysis:
- Farside\TSO\Vezok would be people I'd highlight just for how the wagons look - at least one of them
- Mastin's D2 'The entire AP lynch was scum driven!' is suspect given how the entire wagon is flipping town.
Spoiler:
In post 1620, dramonic wrote:Votecount 15

Theaceofspades (8):
AngryPidgeon
, Farside22, vezokpiraka,
Rachmarie
, mastin2, xombie,
PeregrineV
,
Cephrir

FourTrouble
(1):
The Mask
,
iHouse

vezokpiraka (1): Skybird
TiphaineDeath (1):
FourTrouble

AngryPidgeon
(1): theaceofspades
Rachmarie
(1):
Ooba

Cephrir
(1): TiphaineDeath
iHouse
(0):
beastcharizard


Not voting: ZZZX,
Solar Wind
, VysePresident,
Imperium
, TSO,
Ankamius
, Aeronaut

In post 2355, dramonic wrote:Votecount 20 - Farside appears twice

Theaceofspades (6):
AngryPidgeon
, vezokpiraka, xombie,
Rachmarie
, Farside22, ZZZX
FourTrouble
(3):
The Mask
, Aeronaut
TiphaineDeath (3): Mastin2, Farside22, TSO
beastcharizard
(3): Skybird,
Cephrir
,
Imperium

Cephrir
(2): TiphaineDeath,
FourTrouble

Rachmarie
(2):
Ooba
,
PeregrineV

AngryPidgeon
(1): theaceofspades,
Magua

VysePresident (1):
Solar Wind

Skybird (0):
beastcharizard


Not voting: Heartless,
Ankamius

In post 2634, dramonic wrote:Votecount 24

AngryPidgeon
(8): theaceofspades,
Magua
,
Imperium
,
Ooba
, Vezokpiraka,
Rachmarie
,
Ankamius
, Heartless, TSO
beastcharizard
(5):
The Mask
,
Solar Wind
,
FourTrouble
, Xombie,
Cephrir

Theaceofspades (2):
AngryPidgeon
, ZZZX
Rachmarie
(2):
PeregrineV
, Farside22
FourTrouble
(2): Aeronaut
TiphaineDeath (1): Mastin2
Cephrir
(1): TiphaineDeath
Skybird (0):
beastcharizard


Not voting: Skybird

In post 2854, dramonic wrote:Votecount 26

AngryPidgeon
(11): theaceofspades,
Magua
,
Ooba
, Vezokpiraka,
Rachmarie
,
Ankamius
, TSO, Skybird, Heartless,
Imperium
,
The Mask

beastcharizard
(5):
The Mask
,
Solar Wind
,
FourTrouble
, Xombie,
Cephrir

Theaceofspades (2):
AngryPidgeon
, ZZZX
Rachmarie
(2):
PeregrineV
, Farside22
FourTrouble
(2): Aeronaut
Cephrir
(1): TiphaineDeath
Imperium
(1): Mastin2
Skybird (0):
beastcharizard

In post 3386, dramonic wrote:Votecount 30

Metal Sonic
(7): Heartless,
The Mask
,
Cephrir
,
PeregrineV
, Skybird, TSO, TiphaineDeath
TheAceofspades (3): Xombie,
Ooba
, vezokpiraka
Mastin2 (2): theaceofspades,
FourTrouble

Ankamius
(1):
Magua

Skybird (1): Mastin2
beastcharizard
(1):
Imperium

Heartless (1): Farside22
Imperium
(1):
Solar Wind

Rachmarie
(1): Bitmap
Magua
(0.5):
beastcharizard


Not Voting:
Rachmarie
,
Ankamius
, ZZZX, TheWayItEnds,
Metal Sonic

In post 4294, dramonic wrote:Votecount 35

TheAceofspades (4): Xombie,
Ooba
, vezokpiraka, Farside22
Skybird (2): Mastin2,
Cephrir

Rachmarie
(2): Bitmap, Heartless
Magua
(2):
beastcharizard
,
The Mask

beastcharizard
(2):
Imperium
, Skybird
Ooba
(1):
Metal Sonic

Metal Sonic
(1): TSO
Mastin2 (1):
FourTrouble

Bitmap (1): TiphaineDeath
TSO (1):
Magua


Not Voting:
Rachmarie
,
Ankamius
, ZZZX, TheWayItEnds,
Solar Wind
, theaceofspades

In post 6832, dramonic wrote:Votecount 57

Mastin2 (4): TSO, Vezokpiraka,
Magua
, theaceofspades, Skybird
TSO (4):
Imperium
, Zel1nk, Farside22, ZZZX
Ankamius
(4):
Ooba
, Mastin2, Heartless,
Metal Sonic

TWIE (0): TheWayitEnds

Not Voting: Drixx,
Ankamius
,
FourTrouble


9 to lynch.

Deadline is (expired on 2015-03-31 00:00:00)


Anyway think its a bit premature to mass claim - because the town info gain would not outweigh the scum information gain. We give them a road map to who to kill for a small change in reads based on roles. Maybe tomorrow - just don't feel it's right now.

Support a TSO lynch - not that I have a particular read - just that it culls down the "not sure" list. Also, reinforces town reads on a *lot* of slots if he does flip scum.

Vote: TSO
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Post Post #7447 (ISO) » Sun Mar 22, 2015 9:10 pm

Post by ZeL1nK »

It's interesting that the mastin wagon there contains a lot of the unconfirmed players on the D1 AP wagon.
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Post Post #7448 (ISO) » Sun Mar 22, 2015 9:18 pm

Post by ooba »

The entire page 225 is interesting reading
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p6639314

Also TSO's "Imagine me just hammering" and "I don't think I have ever began to actively anti-wc troll before but if it's ever going to happen, this game's the game." and Cephrir's reaction it to it. I can't judge whether it's manufactured\not (not enough history of playing with TSO)
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Posts: 16301
Joined: February 11, 2013

Post Post #7449 (ISO) » Sun Mar 22, 2015 9:20 pm

Post by T S O »

Sweet, you finally did something worth talking about ZeL1nk!
"i have the sickest grossest feeling that even if it's my lynch today, my townflip still won't lead to a tso lynch, and then he'll find some bullshit way to reason either shooting or lynching gm tomorrow because if there's anyone who can strongarm a mislynch despite his reads or cases being proved wrong time and again it's tso"
-Marquis

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